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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Peterborough by-election betting – the final 12 hours

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  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 126
    edited June 2019
    TGOHF said:

    I think last night shows that there are limits to the BP - one man band.

    Cons deliver Brexit they will win the next GE against Jew hating Labour.

    Gooood, let the hate throw through you - Emperor Palpatine.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    I am delighted that TBP lost and as troubled as the mossad-funded right wing press Jess Phillips by who won.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Alistair said:

    Who are people who stuck with the Tories in Peterborough? Tory Remainers? Soft Brexiteers? Andrea Leadsom backers? :)

    People who don't turn out at European elections?

    As ever, last month I think people got rather over excited at a low turn out election on a single issue with a single issue party standing.
    This site is full of flappers
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited June 2019
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.

    The choice in Peterborough was between a party led by a man who has stood shoulder to shoulder with anti-Semites and one led by a man who has stood shoulder to shoulder with white supremacists. Those solely focusing on one of the two are not genuine anti-racists.

    Whatever Farage has said or done, at least there's nothing to suggest the BXP candidate is any kind of racist.

    He was prepared to stand for a party led and owned by one.

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Renew, the pro remain forerunners to CHUK, came in behind the English Democrats and OMRLP. Time to pack up and go home.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Bobby Smith received only five votes. Did anyone take the 4/6 from Shadsy that Smith would finish last?

  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited June 2019
    TGOHF said:

    I think last night shows that there are limits to the BP - one man band.

    Cons deliver Brexit they will win the next GE against Jew hating Labour.

    The fact is though that the bxp are ahead in the latest national poll and Peterborough is in line with the national polls ,as per professor John Curtice, so to extrapolate that what happened at Peterborough is somehow a rejection of no deal is for the birds, bxp are ahead of labour and tories nationally
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    edited June 2019
    DavidL said:

    Well I must say that is quite unexpected. Probably doesn't make getting the deal through Parliament any easier. Probably keeps Corbyn a little more secure than he deserves. Probably helps the less frothy candidates in the Tory leadership race. Shows that my reservations about the value of a ground game were just plain wrong.

    It's come to something when we're surprised that nine years into government the main opposition has held a seat in a by-election.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Scott_P said:
    And if you add up all the Leave votes (Brexit, Tory, UKIP) and all the remain votes together (everyone else) you get 52% leave. 48% remain. (well is 51.4% versus 48.6% but 52/48 sounds better).

    On one level that's bad for remain on the other side 60.9% of Peterborough residents voted to leave.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kjohnw said:

    TGOHF said:

    I think last night shows that there are limits to the BP - one man band.

    Cons deliver Brexit they will win the next GE against Jew hating Labour.

    The fact is though that the bxp are ahead in the latest national poll and Peterborough is in line with the national polls ,las per professor John Curtice, so to extrapolate that what happened at Peterborough is somehow a rejection of no deal is for the birds, bxp are ahead of labour and tories nationally
    If BXP can't win a 60% plus leave seat where can they win?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Labour won? WTF?

    Weren’t the BXP overwhelming favourites?

    What a bunch of chokers!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.
    Yet we know the CIA helped set up Al Qaeda. Is it such a leap to think that ISIS too might be a creation of the CIA, or the Saudis, or even Mossad? There must be a difference between allegations being antisemitic and simply damn stupid.
    Yes, it is 'such a leap' - from the CIA backing what they saw as an anti-Soviet force to the idea that Israel would back an organisation that would like to wipe them out.
    Actually I think Israel, or more accurately some elements of the Israeli government were supportive of Hamas originally as a counterbalance to the PLO.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    BRX voting total could almost exactly be deduced from the Euros interestingly
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Do me a favour folks. Stop calling the Brexit Party far right. As a brown Muslim this really scares me.

    Because what liberal white people don't realise they are doing is that they are normalising the fat right. When you call everyone you disagree with gat right people think far right isn't such a bad thing, so one day when an actual Nazi comes along (and they will) ready to win people will ignore your cries of them being extreme. They will think you are crying wolf.

    So attack Nigel on his policies if you have to bit stop calling his kind far right. Tommy Robinson for example is a different story.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Who are people who stuck with the Tories in Peterborough? Tory Remainers? Soft Brexiteers? Andrea Leadsom backers? :)

    Tories got people that didn't bother in Euros
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    nunuone said:

    Do me a favour folks. Stop calling the Brexit Party far right. As a brown Muslim this really scares me.

    Because what liberal white people don't realise they are doing is that they are normalising the fat right. When you call everyone you disagree with gat right people think far right isn't such a bad thing, so one day when an actual Nazi comes along (and they will) ready to win people will ignore your cries of them being extreme. They will think you are crying wolf.

    So attack Nigel on his policies if you have to bit stop calling his kind far right. Tommy Robinson for example is a different story.

    *far right instead of gat right
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    rkrkrk said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.
    Yet we know the CIA helped set up Al Qaeda. Is it such a leap to think that ISIS too might be a creation of the CIA, or the Saudis, or even Mossad? There must be a difference between allegations being antisemitic and simply damn stupid.
    Yes, it is 'such a leap' - from the CIA backing what they saw as an anti-Soviet force to the idea that Israel would back an organisation that would like to wipe them out.
    Actually I think Israel, or more accurately some elements of the Israeli government were supportive of Hamas originally as a counterbalance to the PLO.
    Not Hamas. They supported a non-violent Muslim charitable and political organisation linked with the Egyptian Muslim brotherhood that later became absorbed into Hamas, which is a very different beast and has much closer ties to Iran.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    nunuone said:

    Do me a favour folks. Stop calling the Brexit Party far right. As a brown Muslim this really scares me.

    Because what liberal white people don't realise they are doing is that they are normalising the fat right. When you call everyone you disagree with gat right people think far right isn't such a bad thing, so one day when an actual Nazi comes along (and they will) ready to win people will ignore your cries of them being extreme. They will think you are crying wolf.

    So attack Nigel on his policies if you have to bit stop calling his kind far right. Tommy Robinson for example is a different story.

    The fat right?

    Ann Widdicombe?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    Scott_P said:
    The result was too close to call. Instead of allowing this so-called MP to take her seat, I think we should argue about it for the next three years, then hold another vote, to make sure the people of Peterborough are really sure what they voted for.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Poor, if not very poor, by the massive favourite losers the BXP.

    Chortle.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    _Anazina_ said:

    nunuone said:

    Do me a favour folks. Stop calling the Brexit Party far right. As a brown Muslim this really scares me.

    Because what liberal white people don't realise they are doing is that they are normalising the fat right. When you call everyone you disagree with gat right people think far right isn't such a bad thing, so one day when an actual Nazi comes along (and they will) ready to win people will ignore your cries of them being extreme. They will think you are crying wolf.

    So attack Nigel on his policies if you have to bit stop calling his kind far right. Tommy Robinson for example is a different story.

    The fat right?

    Ann Widdicombe?
    I was thinking of Nicholas Soames actually.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,399
    Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.

    Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.

    A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Well I must say that is quite unexpected. Probably doesn't make getting the deal through Parliament any easier. Probably keeps Corbyn a little more secure than he deserves. Probably helps the less frothy candidates in the Tory leadership race. Shows that my reservations about the value of a ground game were just plain wrong.

    It's come to something when we're surprised that nine years into government the main opposition has held a seat in a by-election.
    True, but then it wasn't the government that was threatening to take it. I think TBP will lose a lot of their EU election momentum from this. Can't say I am sorry about that although the Labour candidate seems to be a piece of work, sadly.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Peterborough shows there is more to life and politics than Brexit. Conservative leadership hopefuls might need to broaden their acts beyond Brexit, motherhood and chlorinated apple pie.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    Well the 20-30% LD tip turned out to be Baloney! Och well

    Yes - the wish was the father to the thought.

    I'm delighted, of course, but a few non-partisan notes:

    * Centre-left tactical voting is alive and kicking. Peterborough has lots of pro-Remain left-of-centre voters. They voted LibDem in large numbers in the Euros, and Labour in large numbers in the by-election. A good LibDem national share in an opinion poll doesn't necessarily translate into a Baxterised swing in each seat.

    * As many others have said, the ground game really counts. BXP did what UKIP used to do, threw loads of people into the constituency to mill around and give the impression of unstoppable force. Loads of journos were impressed but what it also did was signal to the above tactical voters that there was a real threat from the far right. And the much-maligned Tory campaign got a chunk of their vote out too - they too will have known where it was.

    * The Labour campaign changed the subject from Brexit - a lot of it was about other issues. In a GE, that is going to be commonplace. The Conservatives haven't even started to prepare for that and it will need to be as much as early priority for their new leader as Brexit. BXP, of course, can't even think of starting. The idea of a BXP policy on, say, education is just funny - their appeal depends on everyone thinking Brexit all the time.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    ydoethur said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.
    As I say above, it seems a similar descent as occurs in red-pilling. A slow descent into conspiracy theorism and easy answers where a particular individual or group is to blame.

    If loads of right-on people you generally agree with say, or agree with, guarded, carefully-worded borderline racist comments, those comments slowly becomes normalised. It is then easier to sink further down into the abyss and accept worse comments.

    And social media is full of little exclusive rooms that act as direct sinkholes into racism.

    (Needless to say, this works in many directions.)
    Can we all agree that the average Peterborough MP is a loathsome racist twat, and leave it at that?

    It seems to be part of the job description.
    This may shock some people:

    Mrs J and I recently spent the weekend in Oxford. A few weeks back we visited Peterborough.

    She said she preferred to visit the centre of Peterborough to Oxford!

    Oxford is a dump. ;)
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Alistair said:

    kjohnw said:

    TGOHF said:

    I think last night shows that there are limits to the BP - one man band.

    Cons deliver Brexit they will win the next GE against Jew hating Labour.

    The fact is though that the bxp are ahead in the latest national poll and Peterborough is in line with the national polls ,las per professor John Curtice, so to extrapolate that what happened at Peterborough is somehow a rejection of no deal is for the birds, bxp are ahead of labour and tories nationally
    If BXP can't win a 60% plus leave seat where can they win?
    Exactly, and they also have a GREAT LOGO, don’t forget, the PB fawners told us so!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The result was too close to call. Instead of allowing this so-called MP to take her seat, I think we should argue about it for the next three years, then hold another vote, to make sure the people of Peterborough are really sure what they voted for.
    That’s exactly what we will do if not before
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    A fascinating by-election:
    1. Labour won - set aside Corbyn and his issues and our candidate and her issues, I always cheer on Labour winning. My getting so agitated is because I demand the right for Labour to position itself to win
    2. Labour's vote share collapsed by 17%. Despite Momentum throwing a not-repeatable-in -a-GE ground war out. This is in line with other recent byelections where Labour wins despite the share collapsing. Why? Because...
    3. The Con share didn't collapse as much as was expected. Cons only losing 25% of their vote is why Labour won the election.
    4. Farage is both the Brexit Party's only weapon and Kyptonite. A more sotto voce leader would not have positioned this as a walk over - but would also not have been in a position to utterly surplant the Tories just weeks after founding the party.

    Where do we go from here?
    5. Cons surely now go with Johnson. Losing that massive a chunk of your vote and being replaced as the 2nd horse in a 2 horse race isn't good. Leave Parties had the majority in this election (BXP/Con/UKIP) so the Tories need to be more competitive in that vote block to retain relevancy
    6. An autumn election is more likely than it was yesterday. Had BXP walked it then the big two parties would have been in abject fear of a GE knowing Farage could win. What this election showed was that its a more open contest and feet on the ground chasing known data is better than bussed in activists being busy fools
    7. Corbyn remains safe - he was anyway, but I am sure that he will brand the 17% vote share collapse and the election of another apologist for anti-semites as a personal triumph for whatever the fuck Seamus tells him his position is on Brexit.

    We would be daft to try and take this result or any individual recent poll and try and use UNS to predict the future. Last night shows the future can't be predicted. Which means volatility which means a notional remain party winning an election in a leave seat where most voters vote leave in the election. Which means all kind of wild results in an actual General Election.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Just seen the votes, and the Conservatives did a lot better than I expected. If it weren't for BP, I expect the blues would've won.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    So a good night for Corbyn Labour, Conservative Dealers and me financially.

    And a bad night for anti-Corbyn Labour, Conservative No Dealers, Farage, the LibDems and those who lay the favourite at very short odds.

    A question - did the Conservatives make any effort to win ?

    If they didn't then I wonder how close they would have come if they had.

    I think if the byelection had taken place two months ago then the Conservatives would have won.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Parties in favour of Brexit: 83.2%
    Parties against Brexit: 15.7%

    Just saying. :)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    nichomar said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The result was too close to call. Instead of allowing this so-called MP to take her seat, I think we should argue about it for the next three years, then hold another vote, to make sure the people of Peterborough are really sure what they voted for.
    That’s exactly what we will do if not before
    She won't take her seat?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Well the 20-30% LD tip turned out to be Baloney! Och well

    Yes - the wish was the father to the thought.

    I'm delighted, of course, but a few non-partisan notes:

    * Centre-left tactical voting is alive and kicking. Peterborough has lots of pro-Remain left-of-centre voters. They voted LibDem in large numbers in the Euros, and Labour in large numbers in the by-election. A good LibDem national share in an opinion poll doesn't necessarily translate into a Baxterised swing in each seat.

    * As many others have said, the ground game really counts. BXP did what UKIP used to do, threw loads of people into the constituency to mill around and give the impression of unstoppable force. Loads of journos were impressed but what it also did was signal to the above tactical voters that there was a real threat from the far right. And the much-maligned Tory campaign got a chunk of their vote out too - they too will have known where it was.

    * The Labour campaign changed the subject from Brexit - a lot of it was about other issues. In a GE, that is going to be commonplace. The Conservatives haven't even started to prepare for that and it will need to be as much as early priority for their new leader as Brexit. BXP, of course, can't even think of starting. The idea of a BXP policy on, say, education is just funny - their appeal depends on everyone thinking Brexit all the time.

    * If you are going to call TBP 'far right' then you should call Labour 'far left'.

    * If Labour campaigned based on GE issues and had a brilliant ground game, and still only just won, then Labour should be very worried about this result.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Somewhere yesterday I said that the only way the Brexit Party lost was if the Conservative vote held up better than expected. I thought it would, because of the effort the Tories had been putting in to the seat, mostly when they were going for the recall at a time when they were still comptitive.

    And so it proved.

    Still an atrocious result. But if they can get Brexit resolved, it would put the spotlight back on the shockingly low winning vote share for Labour.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited June 2019
    kjohnw said:

    TGOHF said:

    I think last night shows that there are limits to the BP - one man band.

    Cons deliver Brexit they will win the next GE against Jew hating Labour.

    The fact is though that the bxp are ahead in the latest national poll and Peterborough is in line with the national polls ,as per professor John Curtice, so to extrapolate that what happened at Peterborough is somehow a rejection of no deal is for the birds, bxp are ahead of labour and tories nationally
    Difficult to have leavers and remainers if we have left.

    Will be “rejoiners” and “move on FFS-ers”
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited June 2019
    It looks like this poster was the Brexit Party's fatal mistake. Rather than squeeze Tory votes ( they had defected to the BP already) it reminded possible Lib Dems to support Labour tactically.

    It also shows the Corbyn 2017 Lib Dem squeeze still has life in it. The target this time was the BP not the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1135646693557510144
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,397

    So, any Conservative MPs thinking of defecting to the Brexit party this morning?

    Dozens I would think. They just wont have the guts to do so.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    Somewhere yesterday I said that the only way the Brexit Party lost was if the Conservative vote held up better than expected. I thought it would, because of the effort the Tories had been putting in to the seat, mostly when they were going for the recall at a time when they were still comptitive.

    And so it proved.

    Still an atrocious result. But if they can get Brexit resolved, it would put the spotlight back on the shockingly low winning vote share for Labour.

    Perhaps it will be dose of reality to the ERG fanatics - there is clearly no majority for No Deal in the country.

    We'll soon see if 'hard man' Steve Baker has the bottle to run for Conservative leader.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited June 2019

    Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.

    Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.

    A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!

    It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."

    The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,

    EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. P, if he hadn't been on TV he would've been accused of hiding.

    There's not much insight offered by those who've decided they're going to criticise X regardless of what X does.

    Better for the likes of Esler, himself not exactly a silent monk, to consider the votes cast, and the political situation. Pointing at Farage and saying "Urgh!" is not especially clever.

    The Conservative vote share is quite surprising. I do wonder if the impact of this might be to strengthen the hand of those more centrist, shall we call them, candidates for the leadership.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,397
    Scott_P said:
    Ones who ignore it or deny it make more sense than those who bemoan it and then leave it at that.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Well the 20-30% LD tip turned out to be Baloney! Och well

    Yes - the wish was the father to the thought.

    I'm delighted, of course, but a few non-partisan notes:

    * Centre-left tactical voting is alive and kicking. Peterborough has lots of pro-Remain left-of-centre voters. They voted LibDem in large numbers in the Euros, and Labour in large numbers in the by-election. A good LibDem national share in an opinion poll doesn't necessarily translate into a Baxterised swing in each seat.

    * As many others have said, the ground game really counts. BXP did what UKIP used to do, threw loads of people into the constituency to mill around and give the impression of unstoppable force. Loads of journos were impressed but what it also did was signal to the above tactical voters that there was a real threat from the far right. And the much-maligned Tory campaign got a chunk of their vote out too - they too will have known where it was.

    * The Labour campaign changed the subject from Brexit - a lot of it was about other issues. In a GE, that is going to be commonplace. The Conservatives haven't even started to prepare for that and it will need to be as much as early priority for their new leader as Brexit. BXP, of course, can't even think of starting. The idea of a BXP policy on, say, education is just funny - their appeal depends on everyone thinking Brexit all the time.

    * If you are going to call TBP 'far right' then you should call Labour 'far left'.

    * If Labour campaigned based on GE issues and had a brilliant ground game, and still only just won, then Labour should be very worried about this result.

    Labour are consistently called far left on here, quite frankly if that is the worst thing a Labour opponent puts in their post then they are being quite polite!

    By PB standards anyway.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Barnesian said:

    Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.

    Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.

    A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!

    It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."

    The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,

    EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
    They have a policy?? Does it not depend who is speaking and to whom?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    nunuone said:

    Do me a favour folks. Stop calling the Brexit Party far right. As a brown Muslim this really scares me.

    Because what liberal white people don't realise they are doing is that they are normalising the fat right. When you call everyone you disagree with gat right people think far right isn't such a bad thing, so one day when an actual Nazi comes along (and they will) ready to win people will ignore your cries of them being extreme. They will think you are crying wolf.

    So attack Nigel on his policies if you have to bit stop calling his kind far right. Tommy Robinson for example is a different story.

    There's something in that - the mirror image of people calling anyone who is dubious about Israel an anti-semite. I wouldn't call Farage a fascist or a Nazi, as some do, but he's clearly pretty right-wing in most terms - not just about Europe.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Would TBP have won with Farage as the candidate? My suspicion is that they would, as he would have brought more media coverage and they probably won the air war but lost the ground war. But it's impossible to know.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ones who ignore it or deny it make more sense than those who bemoan it and then leave it at that.
    They want to use it as a weapon to win control of the party, everything else is secondary.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,397
    edited June 2019

    But if they can get Brexit resolved, it would put the spotlight back on the shockingly low winning vote share for Labour.

    And if they could eliminate all crime and poverty next week it would also put the spotlight on Labour. That doesnt make it happen.

    Also bear in mind the Tories won't even try to resolve Brexit until the end of July onwards, so this by-election will not be in anyones mind.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Barnesian said:

    Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.

    Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.

    A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!

    It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."

    The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,

    EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
    It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Worth bearing in mind amidst all the psephology - Labour have put forward and got elected another nasty piece of work as an MP.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.

    Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.

    A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!

    It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."

    The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,

    EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
    It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
    There you go! We were right.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    One other factor to keep in mind - the stories about Labour's membership being demoralised are vastly exaggerated. Most of us are motivated and ready to knock ourselves out working for a Labour victory - at a micro level, it's how we took seats in deepest Surrey in my patch, and at a macro level the mobilisation of members to help in Peterborough was quite astonishing. BXP has a big army too, but an untrained one. The LibDems are excellent campaigners but don't have the numbers for this sort of battle royale. And the Tory membership is mostly AWOL.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Deft bit of politics by TMay to invite Trump over at just the right time to remind people of the horribleness of the whole Trump-Farage-Boris-Brexit nexus
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    nunuone said:

    Do me a favour folks. Stop calling the Brexit Party far right. As a brown Muslim this really scares me.

    Because what liberal white people don't realise they are doing is that they are normalising the fat right. When you call everyone you disagree with gat right people think far right isn't such a bad thing, so one day when an actual Nazi comes along (and they will) ready to win people will ignore your cries of them being extreme. They will think you are crying wolf.

    So attack Nigel on his policies if you have to bit stop calling his kind far right. Tommy Robinson for example is a different story.

    There's something in that - the mirror image of people calling anyone who is dubious about Israel an anti-semite. I wouldn't call Farage a fascist or a Nazi, as some do, but he's clearly pretty right-wing in most terms - not just about Europe.
    I think that is a welcome reminder that nearly all of our politics in this country takes place within moderate parameters. For all the screaming and abuse I don't see Farage or Corbyn outside those bands. Those that are, like the BNP and Communist parties have never got any real traction and don't have it now. Using extremist terms to seek to brand those that are not diminishes the branding. People should be more moderate in their language.

    Talking of which there was a brilliant bit in the D Day celebrations where one of the vets described how his sergeant had spoken to them when their landing craft landed amongst German shells. "Come of chaps, lets get up that beach, quick as you can now, don't dally" was the tone. Not sure it would quite have been phrased that way today.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Worth bearing in mind amidst all the psephology - Labour have put forward and got elected another nasty piece of work as an MP.

    It’s just what the country needs - another porcine jew hating communist in the HoP.

    Let’s face it she’s not going to influence much unless you are unlucky enough to be a constituent.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    nunuone said:

    Do me a favour folks. Stop calling the Brexit Party far right. As a brown Muslim this really scares me.

    Because what liberal white people don't realise they are doing is that they are normalising the fat right. When you call everyone you disagree with gat right people think far right isn't such a bad thing, so one day when an actual Nazi comes along (and they will) ready to win people will ignore your cries of them being extreme. They will think you are crying wolf.

    So attack Nigel on his policies if you have to bit stop calling his kind far right. Tommy Robinson for example is a different story.

    There's something in that - the mirror image of people calling anyone who is dubious about Israel an anti-semite. I wouldn't call Farage a fascist or a Nazi, as some do, but he's clearly pretty right-wing in most terms - not just about Europe.
    What does being 'dubious about Israel' mean? That's an odd phrase.

    If you mean 'critical of Israel', then I have no problem about that: if it is truthful and balanced criticism - Israel is ripe for criticism, especially under their current leader.

    But then so are the various Palestinian political and paramilitary groups. The extremists on both sides (Israeli and Palestinian) are more interested in ideology than in the good of the people they are supposed to represent.

    The problem is that the manic pro-Palestinianism that has infected Labour provides not only a lack of balance, but a breeding round for anti-Semitism.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:

    BRX voting total could almost exactly be deduced from the Euros interestingly

    Yes, I noticed that too. Suggests a similarity with UKIP 2014-2015 in terms of the next GE, and perhaps a half dozen seats where UKIP was close at GE2015.

    Still, lots could change between now and the next GE.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Mr. P, if he hadn't been on TV he would've been accused of hiding.

    There's not much insight offered by those who've decided they're going to criticise X regardless of what X does.

    Better for the likes of Esler, himself not exactly a silent monk, to consider the votes cast, and the political situation. Pointing at Farage and saying "Urgh!" is not especially clever.

    The Conservative vote share is quite surprising. I do wonder if the impact of this might be to strengthen the hand of those more centrist, shall we call them, candidates for the leadership.

    Perhaps not the Everest of hypocrisy, but that really is a complete self awareness fail from Esler. A politician who's profile was built from being a TV journalist criticizing another politician for appearing on TV.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Incidentally, been having some electricity problems. So if I'm not here over the weekend or there's a mysterious lack of F1 rambling, that'll be why. I won't have dropped dead* or anything.

    *Unless I have dropped dead, obviously.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Well the 20-30% LD tip turned out to be Baloney! Och well

    Yes - the wish was the father to the thought.

    I'm delighted, of course, but a few non-partisan notes:

    * Centre-left tactical voting is alive and kicking. Peterborough has lots of pro-Remain left-of-centre voters. They voted LibDem in large numbers in the Euros, and Labour in large numbers in the by-election. A good LibDem national share in an opinion poll doesn't necessarily translate into a Baxterised swing in each seat.

    * As many others have said, the ground game really counts. BXP did what UKIP used to do, threw loads of people into the constituency to mill around and give the impression of unstoppable force. Loads of journos were impressed but what it also did was signal to the above tactical voters that there was a real threat from the far right. And the much-maligned Tory campaign got a chunk of their vote out too - they too will have known where it was.

    * The Labour campaign changed the subject from Brexit - a lot of it was about other issues. In a GE, that is going to be commonplace. The Conservatives haven't even started to prepare for that and it will need to be as much as early priority for their new leader as Brexit. BXP, of course, can't even think of starting. The idea of a BXP policy on, say, education is just funny - their appeal depends on everyone thinking Brexit all the time.

    * If you are going to call TBP 'far right' then you should call Labour 'far left'.

    * If Labour campaigned based on GE issues and had a brilliant ground game, and still only just won, then Labour should be very worried about this result.

    Labour are consistently called far left on here, quite frankly if that is the worst thing a Labour opponent puts in their post then they are being quite polite!

    By PB standards anyway.
    Corbyn's Labour is far left and proudly so.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,397

    Somewhere yesterday I said that the only way the Brexit Party lost was if the Conservative vote held up better than expected. I thought it would, because of the effort the Tories had been putting in to the seat, mostly when they were going for the recall at a time when they were still comptitive.

    And so it proved.

    Still an atrocious result. But if they can get Brexit resolved, it would put the spotlight back on the shockingly low winning vote share for Labour.

    Perhaps it will be dose of reality to the ERG fanatics - there is clearly no majority for No Deal in the country.

    We'll soon see if 'hard man' Steve Baker has the bottle to run for Conservative leader.
    Given they want to prorogue parliament and avoid any possibility of a GE or referendum I think it pretty clear they know there is no majority in parliament or the country for it, hence trying to win by default position of the law. It doesnt matter to the Bakers of the world- unlike other they meant it when they said the WA really was that bad, even if we remain instead
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.

    Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.

    A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!

    It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."

    The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,

    EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
    It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
    There you go! We were right.
    And so am I.

    In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.

    The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    TGOHF said:

    Worth bearing in mind amidst all the psephology - Labour have put forward and got elected another nasty piece of work as an MP.

    It’s just what the country needs - another porcine jew hating communist in the HoP.

    Let’s face it she’s not going to influence much unless you are unlucky enough to be a constituent.
    Isn't it antisemitic to call her a porcine jew, and misogynistic to call her porcine?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Well the 20-30% LD tip turned out to be Baloney! Och well

    Yes - the wish was the father to the thought.

    I'm delighted, of course, but a few non-partisan notes:

    * Centre-left tactical voting is alive and kicking. Peterborough has lots of pro-Remain left-of-centre voters. They voted LibDem in large numbers in the Euros, and Labour in large numbers in the by-election. A good LibDem national share in an opinion poll doesn't necessarily translate into a Baxterised swing in each seat.

    * As many others have said, the ground game really counts. BXP did what UKIP used to do, threw loads of people into the constituency to mill around and give the impression of unstoppable force. Loads of journos were impressed but what it also did was signal to the above tactical voters that there was a real threat from the far right. And the much-maligned Tory campaign got a chunk of their vote out too - they too will have known where it was.

    * The Labour campaign changed the subject from Brexit - a lot of it was about other issues. In a GE, that is going to be commonplace. The Conservatives haven't even started to prepare for that and it will need to be as much as early priority for their new leader as Brexit. BXP, of course, can't even think of starting. The idea of a BXP policy on, say, education is just funny - their appeal depends on everyone thinking Brexit all the time.

    * If you are going to call TBP 'far right' then you should call Labour 'far left'.

    * If Labour campaigned based on GE issues and had a brilliant ground game, and still only just won, then Labour should be very worried about this result.

    Labour are consistently called far left on here, quite frankly if that is the worst thing a Labour opponent puts in their post then they are being quite polite!

    By PB standards anyway.
    Corbyn's Labour is far left and proudly so.
    Considering Labour policies then we can certainly call Farage far right if Labour qualify as far left.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Another counterfactual to consider: Had there been a unity remain candidate from Change UK/LD/Greens/Renew put forward (namely, Femi), would they have taken more Labour votes than the parties did individually and 'let TBP in'? Probably.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    IanB2 said:

    So the BBC is announcing that May will stand down officially today as Tory party leader, yet the odds on a June departure are 6.0 on Betfair and the rules are: “When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?”

    Yes. Seems like the interpretation the exchange are making is that she is leader until a new leader takes over. So the bet is not on when she resigns, but on the betfair interpretation of their rules and whether it will go to a membership vote.
    That and she is remaining acting leader. So she is still leader.
    That's my interpretation too, but in this case our interpretation doesn't matter. Only Betfair's does.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Well the 20-30% LD tip turned out to be Baloney! Och well

    Yes - the wish was the father to the thought.

    I'm delighted, of course, but a few non-partisan notes:

    * Centre-left tactical voting is alive and kicking. Peterborough has lots of pro-Remain left-of-centre voters. They voted LibDem in large numbers in the Euros, and Labour in large numbers in the by-election. A good LibDem national share in an opinion poll doesn't necessarily translate into a Baxterised swing in each seat.

    * As many others have said, the ground game really counts. BXP did what UKIP used to do, threw loads of people into the constituency to mill around and give the impression of unstoppable force. Loads of journos were impressed but what it also did was signal to the above tactical voters that there was a real threat from the far right. And the much-maligned Tory campaign got a chunk of their vote out too - they too will have known where it was.

    * The Labour campaign changed the subject from Brexit - a lot of it was about other issues. In a GE, that is going to be commonplace. The Conservatives haven't even started to prepare for that and it will need to be as much as early priority for their new leader as Brexit. BXP, of course, can't even think of starting. The idea of a BXP policy on, say, education is just funny - their appeal depends on everyone thinking Brexit all the time.
    I agree with Nick ....

    Heard that somewhere before .... :smile:

    The Farage party is marmite and plenty in Peterborough don't like the taste and Labour were the clear electoral knife to scrap the plate of the stuff, hence the squeeze on the LibDems and Greens on might otherwise be expected to be a better performance.

    As Prof Curtice has indicated the result is much in line with the opinion polls and to my view with added by-election twist.

    Elsewhere at the Ross Herefordshire local by-election I note the yellow peril demolished the Conservatives and gained the seat taking 75% of the vote.

    We live in interesting times.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    kle4 said:

    Somewhere yesterday I said that the only way the Brexit Party lost was if the Conservative vote held up better than expected. I thought it would, because of the effort the Tories had been putting in to the seat, mostly when they were going for the recall at a time when they were still comptitive.

    And so it proved.

    Still an atrocious result. But if they can get Brexit resolved, it would put the spotlight back on the shockingly low winning vote share for Labour.

    Perhaps it will be dose of reality to the ERG fanatics - there is clearly no majority for No Deal in the country.

    We'll soon see if 'hard man' Steve Baker has the bottle to run for Conservative leader.
    Given they want to prorogue parliament and avoid any possibility of a GE or referendum I think it pretty clear they know there is no majority in parliament or the country for it, hence trying to win by default position of the law. It doesnt matter to the Bakers of the world- unlike other they meant it when they said the WA really was that bad, even if we remain instead
    Given the vacuous drivel that is Steve Baker's No Deal plan I suspect they don't want to leave the EU at all:

    https://facts4eu.org/steve_baker_clean_managed_brexit_050619.pdf

    He's had nearly a year out of government is that really the best he could do ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.

    Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.

    A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!

    It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."

    The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,

    EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
    It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
    There you go! We were right.
    And so am I.

    In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.

    The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
    The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.

    I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.

    Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    TGOHF said:

    Worth bearing in mind amidst all the psephology - Labour have put forward and got elected another nasty piece of work as an MP.

    It’s just what the country needs - another porcine jew hating communist in the HoP.

    Let’s face it she’s not going to influence much unless you are unlucky enough to be a constituent.
    Peterborough must have shot God's dog, to have the run of MPs it has had......
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585

    Just seen the votes, and the Conservatives did a lot better than I expected. If it weren't for BP, I expect the blues would've won.

    If Crispin Blunt's prediction that come a GE TBP and the Conservatives will form an alliance, on these figures you are looking at a Conservative/Brexit landslide. I suspect the key obstacle in the way of this potential whitewash is Farage's enormous ego.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Powys : 14,392 Brexit votes @ 35.3% @ 37% turnout = Electorate of 114325

    56,010 /114325 = 0.49 + a bit of UKIP collapse = 7100 votes or so.

    Lib Dems likely over 10,000 I think.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,397

    kle4 said:

    Somewhere yesterday I said that the only way the Brexit Party lost was if the Conservative vote held up better than expected. I thought it would, because of the effort the Tories had been putting in to the seat, mostly when they were going for the recall at a time when they were still comptitive.

    And so it proved.

    Still an atrocious result. But if they can get Brexit resolved, it would put the spotlight back on the shockingly low winning vote share for Labour.

    Perhaps it will be dose of reality to the ERG fanatics - there is clearly no majority for No Deal in the country.

    We'll soon see if 'hard man' Steve Baker has the bottle to run for Conservative leader.
    Given they want to prorogue parliament and avoid any possibility of a GE or referendum I think it pretty clear they know there is no majority in parliament or the country for it, hence trying to win by default position of the law. It doesnt matter to the Bakers of the world- unlike other they meant it when they said the WA really was that bad, even if we remain instead
    Given the vacuous drivel that is Steve Baker's No Deal plan I suspect they don't want to leave the EU at all:

    https://facts4eu.org/steve_baker_clean_managed_brexit_050619.pdf

    He's had nearly a year out of government is that really the best he could do ?
    Lack of plan is probably just a sign of intellect rather than insincerity.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013

    One other factor to keep in mind - the stories about Labour's membership being demoralised are vastly exaggerated. Most of us are motivated and ready to knock ourselves out working for a Labour victory - at a micro level, it's how we took seats in deepest Surrey in my patch, and at a macro level the mobilisation of members to help in Peterborough was quite astonishing. BXP has a big army too, but an untrained one. The LibDems are excellent campaigners but don't have the numbers for this sort of battle royale. And the Tory membership is mostly AWOL.

    I'm glad you are motivated, and your experience is your experience. Mine - and I've spoken to a lot of Teesside activists - is that up here at least the party name is almost an embarrassment. In 2015 the membership of my CLP more than doubled and it has stuck at that high level. And we have far fewer activists than we had in the run up to 2015 - the vast majority of members do nothing other than vote for The Jeremy.

    As for mobilisation in Peterborough, I am hugely greatful to everyone bussed in from wherever for their efforts. Electioneering is exhilarating and exhausting in equal measure, and the 100km I walked in local election week was in part due to the total disinterest of local party members in coming out to defend a Labour council.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Blimey, this has just poohed over quite a few planned narratives for this morning.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    Barnesian said:

    Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.

    Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.

    A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!

    It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."

    The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,

    EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
    It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
    Labour moved toward a second referendum during the campaign in an attempt to shore up its support.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.

    Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.

    A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!

    It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."

    The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,

    EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
    It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
    There you go! We were right.
    And so am I.

    In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.

    The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
    The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.

    I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.

    Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.
    Its not the story you were expecting is it.

    The LibDems had the big momentum and a real opportunity and you didn't achieve.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I note that the latest YouGov scores CHUK at a full 0% ....

    From Small Change To No Change ....

    Will nobody spare some Change for the fallen eleven?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    One other factor to keep in mind - the stories about Labour's membership being demoralised are vastly exaggerated. Most of us are motivated and ready to knock ourselves out working for a Labour victory - at a micro level, it's how we took seats in deepest Surrey in my patch, and at a macro level the mobilisation of members to help in Peterborough was quite astonishing. BXP has a big army too, but an untrained one. The LibDems are excellent campaigners but don't have the numbers for this sort of battle royale. And the Tory membership is mostly AWOL.

    The LibDems have a high capacity to pull in activists from across the country when it matters. They didn't throw much at all into this campaign until after the Euros and even then it wasn't full tilt.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    I wonder how many potential BXP voters were put off by being reminded in the last few days how far up Trump's backside their leader has his head?

    Doing the same to Bush did Blair huge damage and Bush for all his unpopularity was not Trump. There is a sense that Leavers are just thicko voting fodder. A lesson for Boris perhaps
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Pulpstar said:

    Powys : 14,392 Brexit votes @ 35.3% @ 37% turnout = Electorate of 114325

    56,010 /114325 = 0.49 + a bit of UKIP collapse = 7100 votes or so.

    Lib Dems likely over 10,000 I think.

    If there is a Brecon by election depends whether it is before or after the Tory leadership result.

    If before then the Eurosceptic vote will be split between the Brexit Party and Tories again as last night and the LDs will likely win it, if after and Boris wins for instance then he will win back Brexit Party voters and with Eurosceptic voters largely united behind the Tories that could enable a Tory hold.

    Do not forget last night that while Labour did hold on the Brexit Party plus Tory plus UKIP vote combined was over 50%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,397

    Blimey, this has just poohed over quite a few planned narratives for this morning.

    To an extent. Bxp still destroy the tories after all. But the anti Corbyns stumble again, and the less humble lds who were getting overexcited even though they started from such a low base in the seat will calm themselves a bit
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013


    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ones who ignore it or deny it make more sense than those who bemoan it and then leave it at that.
    They want to use it as a weapon to win control of the party, everything else is secondary.
    That you believe this shit is the problem. We are an internationalist movement, we are an equal rights movement, we are an anti-racist movement. We want to win control (a) to win elections - the ENTIRE reason this movement came into being and (b) to once again be the things we believe in.

    Corbyn is an internationalist in that he will go to the Downing Street banquet and meet with China but boycot the same for America. He is an anti-racist in saying he is an anti-racist whilst going to rally after rally organised by acreaming anti-semites who want to sweep Israel into the sea. He is a peacemaker in that he cheers on terrorists on one side hoping they defeat terrorists on the other side - you have to speak to BOTH sides to be a genuine peacemaker.

    So yes. We want to win control of the party. To kill the disgusting racist protectionist stalinist cancer that is Corbynism.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Another thing the result shows is that Labour's public sector / low paid / non-white supporters are still solid.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Politics at the moment seems very puzzling. Not surprised Labour won because they will get their voters out. We asked for and got an extension for Art 50 until the end of October but I'm not sure why. With the MPs making the decisions, Brexit will remain deadlocked.

    It's like an endless tug-of-war. Perhaps we need a new political system. Still, it shows all referenda are only advisory as far as the HoC is concerned. Tough luck for the SNP and Brexit and the voters.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    kle4 said:

    Blimey, this has just poohed over quite a few planned narratives for this morning.

    To an extent. Bxp still destroy the tories after all. But the anti Corbyns stumble again, and the less humble lds who were getting overexcited even though they started from such a low base in the seat will calm themselves a bit
    Indeed but it feels like Eastleigh 2013 all over again.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.

    Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.

    A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!

    It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."

    The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,

    EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
    It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
    There you go! We were right.
    And so am I.

    In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.

    The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
    The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.

    I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.

    Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.
    Its not the story you were expecting is it.

    The LibDems had the big momentum and a real opportunity and you didn't achieve.
    I think the LibDems held their fire in Peterborough. I have had emails from LibDem HQ asking for help in Brecon and Radnor on the recall but had none asking for help in Peterborough, which is unusual.

    Admittedly I had a 200/1 punt on the LibDems in Peterborough placed just after the Euros, based on momentum, but didn't really expect to win it given their tiny base there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.

    Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.

    A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!

    It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."

    The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,

    EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
    It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
    There you go! We were right.
    And so am I.

    In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.

    The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
    The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.

    I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.

    Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.
    Its not the story you were expecting is it.

    The LibDems had the big momentum and a real opportunity and you didn't achieve.
    3% to 12% is in line with the national polls, and not a bad result.

    It's actually better for anti-Brexiters that voters use their intelligence to identify the party best placed locally to beat the right, than it is for remainers to switch to the LibDems in every seat.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Roger said:

    I wonder how many potential BXP voters were put off by being reminded in the last few days how far up Trump's backside their leader has his head?

    Doing the same to Bush did Blair huge damage and Bush for all his unpopularity was not Trump. There is a sense that Leavers are just thicko voting fodder. A lesson for Boris perhaps

    I think you have a point there.

    There are no votes in pandering to American politicians - no matter who they are.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Scott_P said:
    If there is one thing I think all of us on this site can agree upon it is that Labour's position on Brexit is anything but clear.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.

    Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.

    A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!

    It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."

    The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,

    EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
    It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
    There you go! We were right.
    And so am I.

    In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.

    The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
    The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.

    I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.

    Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.
    Except the new Labour MP refused point blank to back a second EU referendum when interviewed last night and fully endorsed instead Corbyn's plan for a Brexit Deal that protects 'jobs and the economy.'

    This was a win for both Corbyn and his Brexit plans it was not a win for Remainers, that would have required a better LD or Green performance
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840


    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ones who ignore it or deny it make more sense than those who bemoan it and then leave it at that.
    They want to use it as a weapon to win control of the party, everything else is secondary.
    That you believe this shit is the problem. We are an internationalist movement, we are an equal rights movement, we are an anti-racist movement. We want to win control (a) to win elections - the ENTIRE reason this movement came into being and (b) to once again be the things we believe in.

    Corbyn is an internationalist in that he will go to the Downing Street banquet and meet with China but boycot the same for America. He is an anti-racist in saying he is an anti-racist whilst going to rally after rally organised by acreaming anti-semites who want to sweep Israel into the sea. He is a peacemaker in that he cheers on terrorists on one side hoping they defeat terrorists on the other side - you have to speak to BOTH sides to be a genuine peacemaker.

    So yes. We want to win control of the party. To kill the disgusting racist protectionist stalinist cancer that is Corbynism.
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/753178874897399808

    How do you think John Mann, who responded to this anti semitic tweet, respond?

    Presumably crashing condemnation, after all he has been fearless attacking Corbyn on this basis..

    You racist, hypocritical, war mongering, privatising, Tory lite bastards don't stand a chance. Use every dirty trick you can, we'll beat ya.
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