Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It was exactly two years ago that Brexit, if it happens, inexo

123578

Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Tory leadership contenders all pulling out the big moves

    No VAT Gove
    5p off tax Raab
    No money to the EU Boris
    No, no , never, never, never to Scotland Saj !
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    FF43 said:

    Interesting. Johnson appears to be going out of his way to goad the EU into not offering an extension. He doesn't accept the EU has any legitimate claim at all, nor is he serious about negotiation. He doesn't need to do this to pander to his base and it's actually counterproductive for winning over MPs. My guess is that he wants the EU to impose a No Deal and he doesn't get the blame.

    Or he wants the EU to impose a binary choice, and for parliament to impose revocation upon him.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    Gove clearly in a post-marching powder-snorting binge panic.

    Tells Telegraph he wants to scrap VAT (which the paper appears to claim is only there because of the EU (er, Geoff Howe anyone???)).

    And HS2 will be gone.

    When did Geoffrey Howe introduce it?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:


    Which is my point too. You are taking the nationalist view of the border. But there is a different, unionist view, no less strongly held. So how do we reconcile the unreconcileable?

    To adapt the saw about the auld Irish lad giving directions to Brexit, I wouldn't start from here.
    Indeed no.

    I blame James VI and I.

    It was his stupid idea to settle all those Scots into Ulster...
    I believe it was a Tudor bright idea originally.

    Where the Welsh go, we all follow.
    Well, we are naturally far superior to all other races. And it was of course the Earl of Pembroke who first led colonisation in Ireland in 1169.

    But the official plantations in Ulster began in 1609.
    First the Norman-Welsh, then the Spanish (Philip and Mary Tudor), then the Scots.

    And its England which gets the blame.
    I think it's fair to say Elizabeth I was English. Of her great-grandparents, one was half-Welsh and half-French (Edmund Tudor) three were English with some French ancestry (Margaret Beaufort, Edward IV, the Countess of Wiltshire) one was half-English and half-Burgundian (Elizabeth Woodville) one was Irish (Margaret Butler) and the rest were unabashedly English (Thomas Boleyn, Elizabeth Tilney, Thomas Howard).

    So you can't really blame us for her.
    But she didn't name Irish counties after herself as Mary and Philip had done.
    Which counties?
    Laois = Queens's County = Mary Tudor
    Offaly = King's County = Philip II of Spain

    And still legal names it seems.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/County_Laois#County_status
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/County_Offaly#History
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More guff from Bozo !

    The 39 billion is split between commitments made whilst the UK was a member and money for the transition .

    No deal and you still pay at least half that bill . The EU will tell him to do one !
    He is playing to his support but if he refuses to pay how do you expect the EU to force payment and how many years in international litigation

    Not that I agree with him as it opens wider problems on trust
    Not half. Who the hell is going to enter any negotiation with UK if we fail to pay our existing membership debts?

    Still, if I was in the Commission I would make abolsutely sure that if the £39b is not paid then no UK MEP gets a penny of pension.

    Let's see if Farage likes it up him, Sir.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    FF43 said:

    Interesting. Johnson appears to be going out of his way to goad the EU into not offering an extension. He doesn't accept the EU has any legitimate claim at all, nor is he serious about negotiation. He doesn't need to do this to pander to his base and it's actually counterproductive for winning over MPs. My guess is that he wants the EU to impose a No Deal and he doesn't get the blame.

    If we accept he is relatively intelligent as many claim, then that makes a great deal more sense than taking his purported plans at face value.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris Grayling is backing Boris for leader.

    If I could be assured Gove won't be second in the leadership ballot that would be the best news I've heard in weeks.
    Will you ever forgive me if I vote for Gove?

    I fear I will be excommunicated by David Cameron.
    Wasn't it reported Cameron is backing Boris? Very poor, if so.
    Yup, I'm very disappointed in Dave, and I say that as the last Dave loyalist on PB.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    ydoethur said:

    Chris Grayling is backing Boris for leader.

    If I could be assured Gove won't be second in the leadership ballot that would be the best news I've heard in weeks.
    Will you ever forgive me if I vote for Gove?

    I fear I will be excommunicated by David Cameron.
    "David Cameron's Brexit Referendum"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    justin124 said:

    Would Gove effectively bring back Purchase Tax?

    He'll find a way to sell out.

    I'll get my dressing gown.

    Good night.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris Grayling is backing Boris for leader.

    If I could be assured Gove won't be second in the leadership ballot that would be the best news I've heard in weeks.
    Will you ever forgive me if I vote for Gove?

    I fear I will be excommunicated by David Cameron.
    Wasn't it reported Cameron is backing Boris? Very poor, if so.
    Yup, I'm very disappointed in Dave, and I say that as the last Dave loyalist on PB.
    Didn't he previously say that the only people who had what it took to do his job were George Osborne, Theresa May and Boris Johnson?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    edited June 2019

    Scott_P said:

    Gove: I'll scrap VAT after Brexit

    A completely pointless way to make the tax system part of the culture war. Expect to see the usual suspects to suddenly start explaining why "Australian" GST is superior to "European" VAT.
    image

    Hungary has 27% VAT.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris Grayling is backing Boris for leader.

    If I could be assured Gove won't be second in the leadership ballot that would be the best news I've heard in weeks.
    Will you ever forgive me if I vote for Gove?

    I fear I will be excommunicated by David Cameron.
    Wasn't it reported Cameron is backing Boris? Very poor, if so.
    Yup, I'm very disappointed in Dave, and I say that as the last Dave loyalist on PB.
    Didn't he previously say that the only people who had what it took to do his job were George Osborne, Theresa May and Boris Johnson?
    He did but that was pre Brexit.

    That was when Boris was the popular Mayor of London.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris Grayling is backing Boris for leader.

    If I could be assured Gove won't be second in the leadership ballot that would be the best news I've heard in weeks.
    Will you ever forgive me if I vote for Gove?

    I fear I will be excommunicated by David Cameron.
    Wasn't it reported Cameron is backing Boris? Very poor, if so.
    Yup, I'm very disappointed in Dave, and I say that as the last Dave loyalist on PB.
    I think he was a decent PM who proved inadequate to deal with the EU issue (and therefore probably should not have attempted it), but he is far from alone in that inadequacy. While I get the anger at him I simply think blaming him for 52% of the public, myself included, voting to leave, is misdirected when he told us all not to. It would allow me to avoid responsibility since I could say it was his fault for offering me a choice, his fault he failed to convince me, when that has to be on me, for better or worse.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting. Johnson appears to be going out of his way to goad the EU into not offering an extension. He doesn't accept the EU has any legitimate claim at all, nor is he serious about negotiation. He doesn't need to do this to pander to his base and it's actually counterproductive for winning over MPs. My guess is that he wants the EU to impose a No Deal and he doesn't get the blame.

    If we accept he is relatively intelligent as many claim, then that makes a great deal more sense than taking his purported plans at face value.
    This kind of crap from Boris means he will never command enough confidence to allow the Queen to invite him to the Palace (as an extra exhibit, M'lud, I refer to today's announcement that ultras plan to deselected Gauke by July).

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More guff from Bozo !

    The 39 billion is split between commitments made whilst the UK was a member and money for the transition .

    No deal and you still pay at least half that bill . The EU will tell him to do one !
    He is playing to his support but if he refuses to pay how do you expect the EU to force payment and how many years in international litigation

    Not that I agree with him as it opens wider problems on trust
    Not half. Who the hell is going to enter any negotiation with UK if we fail to pay our existing membership debts?

    Still, if I was in the Commission I would make abolsutely sure that if the £39b is not paid then no UK MEP gets a penny of pension.

    Let's see if Farage likes it up him, Sir.
    Yes but if in financial dispute the commission would be subject to any protracted international rulings maybe over years

    Mind you I would be very pleased to see Farage made penniless
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,921
    maaarsh said:
    I must admit that I fail to see the attraction that Boris has for Conservative members and women. Perhaps a big swinging dick?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    How likely is it that Grieve, Greening, Lee & Gyimah will resign Tory Whip in event of Johnson becoming Tory leader? Were that to occur together with a by election being called for Brecon & Radnor , Tory strength would be down to 308 MPs - very similar to what Cameron faced in 2010. Corbyn would surely table a VNOC.

    You'd still expect the DUP and Lady Hermon to vote for the government, so I don't think Corbyn would table a VONC.

    The government won the VONC by 19 votes, so it would need more Tory defectors/whip resigners.
    Not sure that Lady Hermon would support a Government led by Boris.Also the four Tory MPs who have already quit the Government benches were part of the 19 vote majority in January.If they now support a VNOC - together with the four potential quitters - the majority would drop to just 3. But Labour now has 2 additional MPs - Newport West and Peterborough. A by election called for Brecon & Radnor would deprive the Government of a further vote. Woodcock and another ex-Labour Independent abstained in the January vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    So Boris cannot even do drugs in a competent manner?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    maaarsh said:
    Has self-styled 'hard man' Steve Baker lost his bottle ?

    If he's lucky Mark Francois will never talk to him again.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More guff from Bozo !

    The 39 billion is split between commitments made whilst the UK was a member and money for the transition .

    No deal and you still pay at least half that bill . The EU will tell him to do one !
    He is playing to his support but if he refuses to pay how do you expect the EU to force payment and how many years in international litigation

    Not that I agree with him as it opens wider problems on trust
    If he refuses to pay at least the previous commitments the EU will refuse to do any side deals to mitigate against no deal . It will completely poison relations .

    No other country will sign any trade deal with the UK as they’ll be seen as an unreliable partner . The EU also have clauses inserted in the Japan and Canada deals anyway .

    The pound is likely to collapse even more than say with a no deal but commitments paid up because they’ll factor in little chance of a future trade deal .

    Bozo is playing to the gallery but ignores the fact that the EU know exactly what’s going on in UK politics .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting. Johnson appears to be going out of his way to goad the EU into not offering an extension. He doesn't accept the EU has any legitimate claim at all, nor is he serious about negotiation. He doesn't need to do this to pander to his base and it's actually counterproductive for winning over MPs. My guess is that he wants the EU to impose a No Deal and he doesn't get the blame.

    If we accept he is relatively intelligent as many claim, then that makes a great deal more sense than taking his purported plans at face value.
    This kind of crap from Boris means he will never command enough confidence to allow the Queen to invite him to the Palace (as an extra exhibit, M'lud, I refer to today's announcement that ultras plan to deselected Gauke by July).

    If he is not expect to see Tory members calling for the end of the monarchy, as it has become a tool of the elite against the choice of the people. Or of them at least.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Ken Clarke set to get a surprise vote in the members run off vote at this rate.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris Grayling is backing Boris for leader.

    If I could be assured Gove won't be second in the leadership ballot that would be the best news I've heard in weeks.
    Will you ever forgive me if I vote for Gove?

    I fear I will be excommunicated by David Cameron.
    Wasn't it reported Cameron is backing Boris? Very poor, if so.
    Yup, I'm very disappointed in Dave, and I say that as the last Dave loyalist on PB.
    We few, we happy few...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting. Johnson appears to be going out of his way to goad the EU into not offering an extension. He doesn't accept the EU has any legitimate claim at all, nor is he serious about negotiation. He doesn't need to do this to pander to his base and it's actually counterproductive for winning over MPs. My guess is that he wants the EU to impose a No Deal and he doesn't get the blame.

    If we accept he is relatively intelligent as many claim, then that makes a great deal more sense than taking his purported plans at face value.
    This kind of crap from Boris means he will never command enough confidence to allow the Queen to invite him to the Palace (as an extra exhibit, M'lud, I refer to today's announcement that ultras plan to deselected Gauke by July).

    He is playing with fire but it would find a lot of support in the country.

    These are very interesting times and it would be a threat to Farage and Corbyn

    Mind you I will not vote for him
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    slade said:

    maaarsh said:
    I must admit that I fail to see the attraction that Boris has for Conservative members and women. Perhaps a big swinging dick?
    Bloody brilliant for my book mind. I am red on Patel, Baker and Spider Man.

    Excellent end to the evening.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    nico67 said:



    Bozo is playing to the gallery but ignores the fact that the EU know exactly what’s going on in UK politics .

    The EU are hardly immine to their own political gamesmanship which can lead to missteps, but it has been rather stupid how often various parties in the UK keep coming up with potential threats and clever wheezes and seem to forget the EU can see and hear what is happening, and comment upon it. The catch all answer seems to be that they will totally 180 later anyway, as though that would not be politically difficult for the EU even if it made sense.

    It's not impossible, but it really is a continuation of telling people it will be easy when we should be able to see that the issue is complex and hard.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Gove clearly in a post-marching powder-snorting binge panic.

    Tells Telegraph he wants to scrap VAT (which the paper appears to claim is only there because of the EU (er, Geoff Howe anyone???)).

    And HS2 will be gone.

    When did Geoffrey Howe introduce it?
    Anthony Barber introduced it from Jan 1st 1973!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Baker now 500

    Patel now 300

    Williamson 1000

    I guess BF don't quite trust Patel as much as the others.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More guff from Bozo !

    The 39 billion is split between commitments made whilst the UK was a member and money for the transition .

    No deal and you still pay at least half that bill . The EU will tell him to do one !
    He is playing to his support but if he refuses to pay how do you expect the EU to force payment and how many years in international litigation

    Not that I agree with him as it opens wider problems on trust
    If he refuses to pay at least the previous commitments the EU will refuse to do any side deals to mitigate against no deal . It will completely poison relations .

    No other country will sign any trade deal with the UK as they’ll be seen as an unreliable partner . The EU also have clauses inserted in the Japan and Canada deals anyway .

    The pound is likely to collapse even more than say with a no deal but commitments paid up because they’ll factor in little chance of a future trade deal .

    Bozo is playing to the gallery but ignores the fact that the EU know exactly what’s going on in UK politics .
    Or the EU will have 39 billion reasons to give us side deals we want.

    His opening gambit being we don't need to pay (which we don't) doesn't mean we won't, it just means they need to give us something we want in exchange for our cash.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris Grayling is backing Boris for leader.

    If I could be assured Gove won't be second in the leadership ballot that would be the best news I've heard in weeks.
    Will you ever forgive me if I vote for Gove?

    I fear I will be excommunicated by David Cameron.
    Wasn't it reported Cameron is backing Boris? Very poor, if so.
    Yup, I'm very disappointed in Dave, and I say that as the last Dave loyalist on PB.
    Didn't he previously say that the only people who had what it took to do his job were George Osborne, Theresa May and Boris Johnson?
    You've missed the "as badly". Between job and were.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Leadsom holding out for a top post? CoE?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited June 2019

    maaarsh said:
    Has self-styled 'hard man' Steve Baker lost his bottle ?

    If he's lucky Mark Francois will never talk to him again.
    Boris intends us to no deal, there's no other way to interpret it when we know there is nothing else that could mollify the Bakers of this world, who make very clear the backstop could be resolved and they'd still not back a WA.

    A lot of former remainers and softer leavers are either fooling themselves about what is either Boris's intention or the natural result of his plan whether he wants it or not, or they are ignoring that because they think he is the only one who can save as much of the party's vote as possible.

    I wonder who among his backers will be the first to say how surprised they are he is going down a particular route later.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,915
    kle4 said:

    So Boris cannot even do drugs in a competent manner?
    Brilliant. Only Stewart comes out of this with any credit, by giving an original and surprising answer.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting. Johnson appears to be going out of his way to goad the EU into not offering an extension. He doesn't accept the EU has any legitimate claim at all, nor is he serious about negotiation. He doesn't need to do this to pander to his base and it's actually counterproductive for winning over MPs. My guess is that he wants the EU to impose a No Deal and he doesn't get the blame.

    If we accept he is relatively intelligent as many claim, then that makes a great deal more sense than taking his purported plans at face value.
    This kind of crap from Boris means he will never command enough confidence to allow the Queen to invite him to the Palace (as an extra exhibit, M'lud, I refer to today's announcement that ultras plan to deselected Gauke by July).

    If he is not expect to see Tory members calling for the end of the monarchy, as it has become a tool of the elite against the choice of the people. Or of them at least.
    You mean:

    Monarchy = Socialism? :lol:
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More guff from Bozo !

    The 39 billion is split between commitments made whilst the UK was a member and money for the transition .

    No deal and you still pay at least half that bill . The EU will tell him to do one !
    He is playing to his support but if he refuses to pay how do you expect the EU to force payment and how many years in international litigation

    Not that I agree with him as it opens wider problems on trust
    Not half. Who the hell is going to enter any negotiation with UK if we fail to pay our existing membership debts?

    Still, if I was in the Commission I would make abolsutely sure that if the £39b is not paid then no UK MEP gets a penny of pension.

    Let's see if Farage likes it up him, Sir.
    Yes but if in financial dispute the commission would be subject to any protracted international rulings maybe over years

    Mind you I would be very pleased to see Farage made penniless
    Some hope. His friend Aaron needs no excuse to bung him 450k, house and chauffeur service.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    How likely is it that Grieve, Greening, Lee & Gyimah will resign Tory Whip in event of Johnson becoming Tory leader? Were that to occur together with a by election being called for Brecon & Radnor , Tory strength would be down to 308 MPs - very similar to what Cameron faced in 2010. Corbyn would surely table a VNOC.

    You'd still expect the DUP and Lady Hermon to vote for the government, so I don't think Corbyn would table a VONC.

    The government won the VONC by 19 votes, so it would need more Tory defectors/whip resigners.
    Not sure that Lady Hermon would support a Government led by Boris.Also the four Tory MPs who have already quit the Government benches were part of the 19 vote majority in January.If they now support a VNOC - together with the four potential quitters - the majority would drop to just 3. But Labour now has 2 additional MPs - Newport West and Peterborough. A by election called for Brecon & Radnor would deprive the Government of a further vote. Woodcock and another ex-Labour Independent abstained in the January vote.
    Don't Peterborough and Newport West just replace their own MPs from January vote? So no change there.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    justin124 said:

    Gove clearly in a post-marching powder-snorting binge panic.

    Tells Telegraph he wants to scrap VAT (which the paper appears to claim is only there because of the EU (er, Geoff Howe anyone???)).

    And HS2 will be gone.

    When did Geoffrey Howe introduce it?
    Anthony Barber introduced it from Jan 1st 1973!
    I didn't mean he introduced it, but Howe whacked it up to 15%. Good old fashioned Thatcherite economics. Nothing to do with EU.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    edited June 2019
    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting. Johnson appears to be going out of his way to goad the EU into not offering an extension. He doesn't accept the EU has any legitimate claim at all, nor is he serious about negotiation. He doesn't need to do this to pander to his base and it's actually counterproductive for winning over MPs. My guess is that he wants the EU to impose a No Deal and he doesn't get the blame.

    If we accept he is relatively intelligent as many claim, then that makes a great deal more sense than taking his purported plans at face value.
    I think it does. If Johnson can get a No Deal in October while blaming the EU, he has nothing to fear from Farage and his own headbangers. At that point he can do whatever he wants because he will be up against a hostile EU. Good for his career. Shame that the United Kingdom is the collateral damage for his project.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    maaarsh said:
    Has self-styled 'hard man' Steve Baker lost his bottle ?

    If he's lucky Mark Francois will never talk to him again.
    Boris intends us to no deal, there's no other way to interpret it when we know there is nothing else that could mollify the Bakers of this world, who make very clear the backstop could be resolved and they'd still not back a WA.

    A lot of former remainers and softer leavers are either fooling themselves about what is either Boris's intention or the natural result of his plan whether he wants it or not, or they are ignoring that because they think he is the only one who can save as much of the party's vote as possible.

    I wonder who among his backers will be the first to say how surprised they are he is going down a particular route later.
    Baker voted to ratify the WA subject to the backstop being resolved.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    The tv debates between the final two should be box office
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    How likely is it that Grieve, Greening, Lee & Gyimah will resign Tory Whip in event of Johnson becoming Tory leader? Were that to occur together with a by election being called for Brecon & Radnor , Tory strength would be down to 308 MPs - very similar to what Cameron faced in 2010. Corbyn would surely table a VNOC.

    You'd still expect the DUP and Lady Hermon to vote for the government, so I don't think Corbyn would table a VONC.

    The government won the VONC by 19 votes, so it would need more Tory defectors/whip resigners.
    Not sure that Lady Hermon would support a Government led by Boris.Also the four Tory MPs who have already quit the Government benches were part of the 19 vote majority in January.If they now support a VNOC - together with the four potential quitters - the majority would drop to just 3. But Labour now has 2 additional MPs - Newport West and Peterborough. A by election called for Brecon & Radnor would deprive the Government of a further vote. Woodcock and another ex-Labour Independent abstained in the January vote.
    Don't Peterborough and Newport West just replace their own MPs from January vote? So no change there.
    No- Paul Flynn was too ill to attend by January. Fiona Onasanya was otherwise engaged - if not yet in jail!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,234
    kle4 said:

    So Boris cannot even do drugs in a competent manner?
    No. He's lying. And nobody is calling him on it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting. Johnson appears to be going out of his way to goad the EU into not offering an extension. He doesn't accept the EU has any legitimate claim at all, nor is he serious about negotiation. He doesn't need to do this to pander to his base and it's actually counterproductive for winning over MPs. My guess is that he wants the EU to impose a No Deal and he doesn't get the blame.

    If we accept he is relatively intelligent as many claim, then that makes a great deal more sense than taking his purported plans at face value.
    This kind of crap from Boris means he will never command enough confidence to allow the Queen to invite him to the Palace (as an extra exhibit, M'lud, I refer to today's announcement that ultras plan to deselected Gauke by July).

    He is playing with fire but it would find a lot of support in the country.

    These are very interesting times and it would be a threat to Farage and Corbyn

    Mind you I will not vote for him
    Boris will not be PM at this rate. He will be leader and watch as May carries on dutifully being HMQ's PM.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    justin124 said:

    Gove clearly in a post-marching powder-snorting binge panic.

    Tells Telegraph he wants to scrap VAT (which the paper appears to claim is only there because of the EU (er, Geoff Howe anyone???)).

    And HS2 will be gone.

    When did Geoffrey Howe introduce it?
    Anthony Barber introduced it from Jan 1st 1973!
    I didn't mean he introduced it, but Howe whacked it up to 15%. Good old fashioned Thatcherite economics. Nothing to do with EU.
    Exactly. A tax on consumption rather than income making savings relatively more attractive. Why on earth would a Tory want to abolish it?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    The tv debates between the final two should be box office

    Is Boris going? I thought his team didn't like the idea.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    So Boris cannot even do drugs in a competent manner?
    No. He's lying. And nobody is calling him on it.
    Seems bloody unlikely that a leading light of the Bullingdon hasn't been near drugs. I've seen 'Posh'. I know what goes on.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting. Johnson appears to be going out of his way to goad the EU into not offering an extension. He doesn't accept the EU has any legitimate claim at all, nor is he serious about negotiation. He doesn't need to do this to pander to his base and it's actually counterproductive for winning over MPs. My guess is that he wants the EU to impose a No Deal and he doesn't get the blame.

    If we accept he is relatively intelligent as many claim, then that makes a great deal more sense than taking his purported plans at face value.
    This kind of crap from Boris means he will never command enough confidence to allow the Queen to invite him to the Palace (as an extra exhibit, M'lud, I refer to today's announcement that ultras plan to deselected Gauke by July).

    He is playing with fire but it would find a lot of support in the country.

    These are very interesting times and it would be a threat to Farage and Corbyn

    Mind you I will not vote for him
    Boris will not be PM at this rate. He will be leader and watch as May carries on dutifully being HMQ's PM.
    Perhaps the ideal position for an egotistical coward.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,234

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More guff from Bozo !

    The 39 billion is split between commitments made whilst the UK was a member and money for the transition .

    No deal and you still pay at least half that bill . The EU will tell him to do one !
    He is playing to his support but if he refuses to pay how do you expect the EU to force payment and how many years in international litigation

    Not that I agree with him as it opens wider problems on trust
    If he refuses to pay at least the previous commitments the EU will refuse to do any side deals to mitigate against no deal . It will completely poison relations .

    No other country will sign any trade deal with the UK as they’ll be seen as an unreliable partner . The EU also have clauses inserted in the Japan and Canada deals anyway .

    The pound is likely to collapse even more than say with a no deal but commitments paid up because they’ll factor in little chance of a future trade deal .

    Bozo is playing to the gallery but ignores the fact that the EU know exactly what’s going on in UK politics .
    Or the EU will have 39 billion reasons to give us side deals we want.

    His opening gambit being we don't need to pay (which we don't) doesn't mean we won't, it just means they need to give us something we want in exchange for our cash.
    Perhaps a wideranging set of agreements in one package for withdrawal. A Withdrawal Agreement, in fact.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605

    The tv debates between the final two should be box office

    Not in my house.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,915
    kle4 said:

    Andrea Leadsom has just ruined cannabis for so many people. On a more serious note, so much stupid shit is talked about drugs. Alcohol is a much more destructive drug than most of the stuff people tie themselves in knots about, and nobody has a more fucked up relationship with drink than MPs and the meejia. I have absolutely no problem with Michael Gove doing coke a few times. I do have a problem with him robbing my children of their right to live, love and work across a continent of 350 million people.

    Nobody was robbed of anything, there was a vote, which can and might well be reversed, but even if it wasn't there was no robbing, unless you think anything that ever happens after a vote is robbing those who did not have a vote, or that the votes of young people are worth more. You undermine every point you made with that childish remark.
    That's me telt!
    They had something taken from them against their will. I call that robbed. But I will sit on the naughty step if you want me to.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    justin124 said:

    Gove clearly in a post-marching powder-snorting binge panic.

    Tells Telegraph he wants to scrap VAT (which the paper appears to claim is only there because of the EU (er, Geoff Howe anyone???)).

    And HS2 will be gone.

    When did Geoffrey Howe introduce it?
    Anthony Barber introduced it from Jan 1st 1973!
    The same day we joined the old EC!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    Gove clearly in a post-marching powder-snorting binge panic.

    Tells Telegraph he wants to scrap VAT (which the paper appears to claim is only there because of the EU (er, Geoff Howe anyone???)).

    And HS2 will be gone.

    When did Geoffrey Howe introduce it?
    Anthony Barber introduced it from Jan 1st 1973!
    I didn't mean he introduced it, but Howe whacked it up to 15%. Good old fashioned Thatcherite economics. Nothing to do with EU.
    Exactly. A tax on consumption rather than income making savings relatively more attractive. Why on earth would a Tory want to abolish it?
    Because they are desperate to say anything that might give the tory membership a moment's pause before they vote for Boris?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,234
    kle4 said:

    Boris intends us to no deal, there's no other way to interpret it when we know there is nothing else that could mollify the Bakers of this world, who make very clear the backstop could be resolved and they'd still not back a WA.

    A lot of former remainers and softer leavers are either fooling themselves about what is either Boris's intention or the natural result of his plan whether he wants it or not, or they are ignoring that because they think he is the only one who can save as much of the party's vote as possible.

    I agree with you. Somebody else made the same point the other day, which I also agreed with. It may have been you, in which case I agree with you twice. There is an awful lot of self-delusion here.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    kle4 said:

    maaarsh said:
    Has self-styled 'hard man' Steve Baker lost his bottle ?

    If he's lucky Mark Francois will never talk to him again.
    Boris intends us to no deal, there's no other way to interpret it when we know there is nothing else that could mollify the Bakers of this world, who make very clear the backstop could be resolved and they'd still not back a WA.

    A lot of former remainers and softer leavers are either fooling themselves about what is either Boris's intention or the natural result of his plan whether he wants it or not, or they are ignoring that because they think he is the only one who can save as much of the party's vote as possible.

    I wonder who among his backers will be the first to say how surprised they are he is going down a particular route later.
    Boris intends to become leader of the Conservative Party. And then PM. What comes next is mere detail to him.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Which candidates have committed to scrapping HS2? I would like it gone, very gone.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More guff from Bozo !

    The 39 billion is split between commitments made whilst the UK was a member and money for the transition .

    No deal and you still pay at least half that bill . The EU will tell him to do one !
    He is playing to his support but if he refuses to pay how do you expect the EU to force payment and how many years in international litigation

    Not that I agree with him as it opens wider problems on trust
    If he refuses to pay at least the previous commitments the EU will refuse to do any side deals to mitigate against no deal . It will completely poison relations .

    No other country will sign any trade deal with the UK as they’ll be seen as an unreliable partner . The EU also have clauses inserted in the Japan and Canada deals anyway .

    The pound is likely to collapse even more than say with a no deal but commitments paid up because they’ll factor in little chance of a future trade deal .

    Bozo is playing to the gallery but ignores the fact that the EU know exactly what’s going on in UK politics .
    Or the EU will have 39 billion reasons to give us side deals we want.

    His opening gambit being we don't need to pay (which we don't) doesn't mean we won't, it just means they need to give us something we want in exchange for our cash.
    39 billion is loose change for the EU . It’s the principal that Cameron made commitments which end in 2021. They will never give Bozo any sort of victory as he’s despised in Brussels .

    They will not reward who they see as the architect of Brexit. This is all going to end in tears .

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,234
    slade said:

    I must admit that I fail to see the attraction that Boris has for Conservative members and women. Perhaps a big swinging dick?

    No. It's the recent poll. @HYUFD keeps bringing it up, so he has the details if you want them
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    More news from the cesspit that used to be known as the Labour Party:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1137422343251353605
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More guff from Bozo !

    The 39 billion is split between commitments made whilst the UK was a member and money for the transition .

    No deal and you still pay at least half that bill . The EU will tell him to do one !
    He is playing to his support but if he refuses to pay how do you expect the EU to force payment and how many years in international litigation

    Not that I agree with him as it opens wider problems on trust
    If he refuses to pay at least the previous commitments the EU will refuse to do any side deals to mitigate against no deal . It will completely poison relations .

    No other country will sign any trade deal with the UK as they’ll be seen as an unreliable partner . The EU also have clauses inserted in the Japan and Canada deals anyway .

    The pound is likely to collapse even more than say with a no deal but commitments paid up because they’ll factor in little chance of a future trade deal .

    Bozo is playing to the gallery but ignores the fact that the EU know exactly what’s going on in UK politics .
    Or the EU will have 39 billion reasons to give us side deals we want.

    His opening gambit being we don't need to pay (which we don't) doesn't mean we won't, it just means they need to give us something we want in exchange for our cash.
    39 billion is loose change for the EU . It’s the principal that Cameron made commitments which end in 2021. They will never give Bozo any sort of victory as he’s despised in Brussels .

    They will not reward who they see as the architect of Brexit. This is all going to end in tears .

    A good portion of the 39bn was to pay for continued membership fees during a transition period. If there's no deal, and no transition period, are you suggesting we should still pay for one? I thought your side liked to think of itself as the economically literate ones...
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Which candidates have committed to scrapping HS2? I would like it gone, very gone.

    Gove in the Telegraph says he would review it based on the escalating costs.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Which candidates have committed to scrapping HS2? I would like it gone, very gone.

    Most of them.

    Completely idiotic. Badly needed. This country can't build anything these days unless it is within the London catchment area.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    maaarsh said:
    Has self-styled 'hard man' Steve Baker lost his bottle ?

    If he's lucky Mark Francois will never talk to him again.
    Boris intends us to no deal, there's no other way to interpret it when we know there is nothing else that could mollify the Bakers of this world, who make very clear the backstop could be resolved and they'd still not back a WA.

    A lot of former remainers and softer leavers are either fooling themselves about what is either Boris's intention or the natural result of his plan whether he wants it or not, or they are ignoring that because they think he is the only one who can save as much of the party's vote as possible.

    I wonder who among his backers will be the first to say how surprised they are he is going down a particular route later.
    Boris intends to become leader of the Conservative Party. And then PM. What comes next is mere detail to him.
    I disagree. Johnson is thinking ahead. He expects to be PM. Brexit offers a narrow chance of success for him and October is only a few months away. He has decided No Deal is the best outcome for him, but he needs the EU to do the dirty work for him.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More guff from Bozo !

    The 39 billion is split between commitments made whilst the UK was a member and money for the transition .

    No deal and you still pay at least half that bill . The EU will tell him to do one !
    He is playing to his support but if he refuses to pay how do you expect the EU to force payment and how many years in international litigation

    Not that I agree with him as it opens wider problems on trust
    If he refuses to pay at least the previous commitments the EU will refuse to do any side deals to mitigate against no deal . It will completely poison relations .

    No other country will sign any trade deal with the UK as they’ll be seen as an unreliable partner . The EU also have clauses inserted in the Japan and Canada deals anyway .

    The pound is likely to collapse even more than say with a no deal but commitments paid up because they’ll factor in little chance of a future trade deal .

    Bozo is playing to the gallery but ignores the fact that the EU know exactly what’s going on in UK politics .
    Or the EU will have 39 billion reasons to give us side deals we want.

    His opening gambit being we don't need to pay (which we don't) doesn't mean we won't, it just means they need to give us something we want in exchange for our cash.
    39 billion is loose change for the EU . It’s the principal that Cameron made commitments which end in 2021. They will never give Bozo any sort of victory as he’s despised in Brussels .

    They will not reward who they see as the architect of Brexit. This is all going to end in tears .

    £39 billion equals £750 million pounds a week...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    More news from the cesspit that used to be known as the Labour Party:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1137422343251353605

    It is disgusting
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    viewcode said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More guff from Bozo !

    The 39 billion is split between commitments made whilst the UK was a member and money for the transition .

    No deal and you still pay at least half that bill . The EU will tell him to do one !
    He is playing to his support but if he refuses to pay how do you expect the EU to force payment and how many years in international litigation

    Not that I agree with him as it opens wider problems on trust
    If he refuses to pay at least the previous commitments the EU will refuse to do any side deals to mitigate against no deal . It will completely poison relations .

    No other country will sign any trade deal with the UK as they’ll be seen as an unreliable partner . The EU also have clauses inserted in the Japan and Canada deals anyway .

    The pound is likely to collapse even more than say with a no deal but commitments paid up because they’ll factor in little chance of a future trade deal .

    Bozo is playing to the gallery but ignores the fact that the EU know exactly what’s going on in UK politics .
    Or the EU will have 39 billion reasons to give us side deals we want.

    His opening gambit being we don't need to pay (which we don't) doesn't mean we won't, it just means they need to give us something we want in exchange for our cash.
    Perhaps a wideranging set of agreements in one package for withdrawal. A Withdrawal Agreement, in fact.
    Indeed. Key to it being a Withdrawal Agreement that we want. Rather than just this is what you get and that's it.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Gove wants to scrap VAT?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,234

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    So Boris cannot even do drugs in a competent manner?
    No. He's lying. And nobody is calling him on it.
    Seems bloody unlikely that a leading light of the Bullingdon hasn't been near drugs. I've seen 'Posh'. I know what goes on.
    I went on a Kermodian rant the other day on here how wealthy people in the UK do not have to obey the law like the rest of us. It was not well received. However, reality keeps supplying supporting evidence... :(
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    FF43 said:

    Interesting. Johnson appears to be going out of his way to goad the EU into not offering an extension. He doesn't accept the EU has any legitimate claim at all, nor is he serious about negotiation. He doesn't need to do this to pander to his base and it's actually counterproductive for winning over MPs. My guess is that he wants the EU to impose a No Deal and he doesn't get the blame. He wants to scorch the earth but not too be seen to be doing it.



    They had a report on spliff useage?

    Oh....
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    Which candidates have committed to scrapping HS2? I would like it gone, very gone.

    Most of them.

    Completely idiotic. Badly needed. This country can't build anything these days unless it is within the London catchment area.
    As I think we've established, the London catchment area is what the whole project is aimed at augmenting. Investment in rail is needed. HS2 is not it.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    T

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More guff from Bozo !

    The 39 billion is split between commitments made whilst the UK was a member and money for the transition .

    No deal and you still pay at least half that bill . The EU will tell him to do one !
    He is playing to his support but if he refuses to pay how do you expect the EU to force payment and how many years in international litigation

    Not that I agree with him as it opens wider problems on trust
    If he refuses to pay at least the previous commitments the EU will refuse to do any side deals to mitigate against no deal . It will completely poison relations .

    No other country will sign any trade deal with the UK as they’ll be seen as an unreliable partner . The EU also have clauses inserted in the Japan and Canada deals anyway .

    The pound is likely to collapse even more than say with a no deal but commitments paid up because they’ll factor in little chance of a future trade deal .

    Bozo is playing to the gallery but ignores the fact that the EU know exactly what’s going on in UK politics .
    Or the EU will have 39 billion reasons to give us side deals we want.

    His opening gambit being we don't need to pay (which we don't) doesn't mean we won't, it just means they need to give us something we want in exchange for our cash.
    39 billion is loose change for the EU . It’s the principal that Cameron made commitments which end in 2021. They will never give Bozo any sort of victory as he’s despised in Brussels .

    They will not reward who they see as the architect of Brexit. This is all going to end in tears .

    A good portion of the 39bn was to pay for continued membership fees during a transition period. If there's no deal, and no transition period, are you suggesting we should still pay for one? I thought your side liked to think of itself as the economically literate ones...
    No of course not , the EU will accept half the bill which is for previous commitments . A no deal having paid that is different from paying nothing at all. That’s what my post alluded to .
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Boris will get it. The question is, what will he do with it? He is the "ideas man" who needs a competent coterie of advisers and a cabinet who can get things done. He must set himself up with people like that in his cabinet, as he did in his stints as mayor of London.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    The tv debates between the final two should be box office

    Is Boris going? I thought his team didn't like the idea.
    I hope the contenders graciously decline the invitations extended to them. Basically tell the Broadcasters to get stuffed - nothing to do with them.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Let’s say even if by some miracle Bozo managed to negotiate a new deal there’s still not enough time to ratify that so he’s lying about the October deadline .
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "The MP for a primary school facing demonstrations over LGBT equality teaching has been criticised by party colleagues after telling campaigners "you're right".

    In a video circulated on social media, Roger Godsiff, MP for Birmingham Hall Green, also told protesters they had a "just cause"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48569173
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    maaarsh said:
    Has self-styled 'hard man' Steve Baker lost his bottle ?

    If he's lucky Mark Francois will never talk to him again.
    Boris intends us to no deal, there's no other way to interpret it when we know there is nothing else that could mollify the Bakers of this world, who make very clear the backstop could be resolved and they'd still not back a WA.

    A lot of former remainers and softer leavers are either fooling themselves about what is either Boris's intention or the natural result of his plan whether he wants it or not, or they are ignoring that because they think he is the only one who can save as much of the party's vote as possible.

    I wonder who among his backers will be the first to say how surprised they are he is going down a particular route later.
    Boris intends to become leader of the Conservative Party. And then PM. What comes next is mere detail to him.
    I disagree. Johnson is thinking ahead. He expects to be PM. Brexit offers a narrow chance of success for him and October is only a few months away. He has decided No Deal is the best outcome for him, but he needs the EU to do the dirty work for him.
    No Deal is the best way for him to ensure the members vote. A "narrow chance of success" does not encompass a No Deal scenario. He's an intelligent guy. He'll have seen the impact assessments.
    The idea that there will be a long lasting, popular and successful PM reign under such circumstances is for the birds, however much Johnny Foreigner is scapegoated.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Floater said:

    Gove wants to scrap VAT?

    and replace it with a new lower bureaucracy, so lower cost to businesses sales tax.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What's all this talk of icing sugar?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Scott_P said:
    Looks like game over for Gove .

    That’s a horrific front page for him , not sure he can recover from that .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    And I wonder how many are claiming they will vote for some other MP, but will vote for Boris because he looks like their only chance to stay an MP?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Scott_P said:
    Some “boost”. The poor sod’s just drifted to 55/1.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More guff from Bozo !

    The 39 billion is split between commitments made whilst the UK was a member and money for the transition .

    No deal and you still pay at least half that bill . The EU will tell him to do one !
    He is playing to his support but if he refuses to pay how do you expect the EU to force payment and how many years in international litigation

    Not that I agree with him as it opens wider problems on trust
    If he refuses to pay at least the previous commitments the EU will refuse to do any side deals to mitigate against no deal . It will completely poison relations .

    No other country will sign any trade deal with the UK as they’ll be seen as an unreliable partner . The EU also have clauses inserted in the Japan and Canada deals anyway .

    The pound is likely to collapse even more than say with a no deal but commitments paid up because they’ll factor in little chance of a future trade deal .

    Bozo is playing to the gallery but ignores the fact that the EU know exactly what’s going on in UK politics .
    Or the EU will have 39 billion reasons to give us side deals we want.

    His opening gambit being we don't need to pay (which we don't) doesn't mean we won't, it just means they need to give us something we want in exchange for our cash.
    39 billion is loose change for the EU . It’s the principal that Cameron made commitments which end in 2021. They will never give Bozo any sort of victory as he’s despised in Brussels .

    They will not reward who they see as the architect of Brexit. This is all going to end in tears .

    A good portion of the 39bn was to pay for continued membership fees during a transition period. If there's no deal, and no transition period, are you suggesting we should still pay for one? I thought your side liked to think of itself as the economically literate ones...
    It doesn't matter whether there is some objective obligation and how much. The point is Johnson is trashing all negotiation with the EU, including stuff he has agreed in principle. I don't think this is casual posturing. If it's part of a calculation, and I think it is, it suggests Johnson actually wants the EU to throw is out with No Deal in October and not offer an extension. Everything else follows from there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    Boris intends us to no deal, there's no other way to interpret it when we know there is nothing else that could mollify the Bakers of this world, who make very clear the backstop could be resolved and they'd still not back a WA.

    A lot of former remainers and softer leavers are either fooling themselves about what is either Boris's intention or the natural result of his plan whether he wants it or not, or they are ignoring that because they think he is the only one who can save as much of the party's vote as possible.

    I agree with you. Somebody else made the same point the other day, which I also agreed with. It may have been you, in which case I agree with you twice. There is an awful lot of self-delusion here.

    The combination of Boris and no deal would be enough to ensure his government falls before he has climbed into the saddle.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited June 2019
    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Looks like game over for Gove .

    That’s a horrific front page for him , not sure he can recover from that .
    Tim Shipman on Sky just now has read out the feature and made the point that it is not all that it seems but still thinks it has been a bad weekend for Gove
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    dixiedean said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    maaarsh said:
    Has self-styled 'hard man' Steve Baker lost his bottle ?

    If he's lucky Mark Francois will never talk to him again.
    Boris intends us to no deal, there's no other way to interpret it when we know there is nothing else that could mollify the Bakers of this world, who make very clear the backstop could be resolved and they'd still not back a WA.

    A lot of former remainers and softer leavers are either fooling themselves about what is either Boris's intention or the natural result of his plan whether he wants it or not, or they are ignoring that because they think he is the only one who can save as much of the party's vote as possible.

    I wonder who among his backers will be the first to say how surprised they are he is going down a particular route later.
    Boris intends to become leader of the Conservative Party. And then PM. What comes next is mere detail to him.
    I disagree. Johnson is thinking ahead. He expects to be PM. Brexit offers a narrow chance of success for him and October is only a few months away. He has decided No Deal is the best outcome for him, but he needs the EU to do the dirty work for him.
    No Deal is the best way for him to ensure the members vote. A "narrow chance of success" does not encompass a No Deal scenario. He's an intelligent guy. He'll have seen the impact assessments.
    The idea that there will be a long lasting, popular and successful PM reign under such circumstances is for the birds, however much Johnny Foreigner is scapegoated.
    Do you know what the impact assessments say?

    For example the impact assessment on the borders had best case, average and worst case. It is only the worst case scenario that has been reported in the press i.e 20 mile queues to Dover.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    AndyJS said:

    "The MP for a primary school facing demonstrations over LGBT equality teaching has been criticised by party colleagues after telling campaigners "you're right".

    In a video circulated on social media, Roger Godsiff, MP for Birmingham Hall Green, also told protesters they had a "just cause"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48569173

    "Labour's appalling agenda, encouraging the teaching of homosexuality in schools, and all the rest of it."
    - Boris, in The Spectator, 15 April 2000
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting. Johnson appears to be going out of his way to goad the EU into not offering an extension. He doesn't accept the EU has any legitimate claim at all, nor is he serious about negotiation. He doesn't need to do this to pander to his base and it's actually counterproductive for winning over MPs. My guess is that he wants the EU to impose a No Deal and he doesn't get the blame.

    If we accept he is relatively intelligent as many claim, then that makes a great deal more sense than taking his purported plans at face value.
    This kind of crap from Boris means he will never command enough confidence to allow the Queen to invite him to the Palace (as an extra exhibit, M'lud, I refer to today's announcement that ultras plan to deselected Gauke by July).

    He is playing with fire but it would find a lot of support in the country.

    These are very interesting times and it would be a threat to Farage and Corbyn

    Mind you I will not vote for him
    Boris will not be PM at this rate. He will be leader and watch as May carries on dutifully being HMQ's PM.
    He will be PM the question is for how long.

    If those who've quit their parties trigger a national election then they are signing their own P45s. None will win reelection without their former party behind them. So they will leave a VONC to being the last resort.

    They can delay bringing down Johnson by saying they are waiting to see if he gets a deal then bring him down if need be if he goes down the no deal route. That gives them a few months - and potentially a few years - extra as being highly paid MPs.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    "Be the change you want to see."
    "By their actions you shall know them."
    "Labour is a moral crusade or it is nothing."

    Labour can fuck right off. To think I actually gave them my list vote in the last Holyrood elections.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Looks like game over for Gove .

    That’s a horrific front page for him , not sure he can recover from that .
    Brutal.

    True professionals are at work on this one. Can't think whose team they work for.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,234

    viewcode said:

    Perhaps a wideranging set of agreements in one package for withdrawal. A Withdrawal Agreement, in fact.

    Indeed. Key to it being a Withdrawal Agreement that we want. Rather than just this is what you get and that's it.
    Unfortunately, the Withdrawal Agreement is the agreement that we want: May specifically asked for it, then asked for the backstop to be extended. The problem arose when Parliament then rejected it.

    This is a point I need to emphasise because language has become almost entirely disconnected from facts wrt Brexit. The EU has offered us (more than once?) a super Canada-type deal which the UK turned down. The WA is there because we asked for it.

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Has Jo Johnson made any comments on the leadership election yet?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Floater said:

    Gove wants to scrap VAT?

    and replace it with a new lower bureaucracy, so lower cost to businesses sales tax.
    Migrating to a completely different system with an equivalent level of bureaucracy is anything but lower cost.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Which candidates have committed to scrapping HS2? I would like it gone, very gone.

    Most of them.

    Completely idiotic. Badly needed. This country can't build anything these days unless it is within the London catchment area.
    As I think we've established, the London catchment area is what the whole project is aimed at augmenting. Investment in rail is needed. HS2 is not it.
    No we haven't. See the indie article I posted yesterday. HS2 is about capacity not speed and the Northern Rail stuff is completely reliant on its infrastructure. HS2 gets express trains off existing lines to free them up for more commuter and stopping trains.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    “We were in partnership with Super Deal tyres but the Brexit deal ruined that.“

    https://twitter.com/stevepeers/status/1137464227352993792?s=21

    Why the fuck are we doing this?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited June 2019
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Perhaps a wideranging set of agreements in one package for withdrawal. A Withdrawal Agreement, in fact.

    Indeed. Key to it being a Withdrawal Agreement that we want. Rather than just this is what you get and that's it.
    Unfortunately, the Withdrawal Agreement is the agreement that we want: May specifically asked for it, then asked for the backstop to be extended. The problem arose when Parliament then rejected it.

    This is a point I need to emphasise because language has become almost entirely disconnected from facts wrt Brexit. The EU has offered us (more than once?) a super Canada-type deal which the UK turned down. The WA is there because we asked for it.

    May is going and she is not the UK. That May asked for it is irrelevant the second she is gone.

    If the EU is happy to offer us a super Canada type deal then great PM Boris should be able to agree that.
This discussion has been closed.