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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair alone £3.5m has already been wagered on the CON lea

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  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    Have you seen the weather forecasts? The World Cup is broken. It's very sad.
    Hyperbole! Looks fine after midweek, at least down south.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirms my theory earlier too that while Labour and LD voters may vote Rory 0 will vote for him while Tory voters flock en masse to the Brexit Party. The Tories fall to 5th under Rory behind the Brexit Party, Labour, the LDs and SNP.

    Astonishing too the difference a candidate's Brexit Party stance makes. The Tories trail Labour under Gove, Hunt, Stewart and Javid all of whom would see Corbyn PM of a Labour minority government with SNP and Labour support with the Brexit Party winning 64-123 seats and under Rory the Brexit Party wins over 200 seats to become largest party.

    Raab would see the Tories' largest party but it would still be a Corbyn minority government with SNP and LD support as the Brexit Party vote still holds up a bit. Boris though produces a Tory landslide due to the BP collapse.
    No it does nothing of the sort! It is beyond ridiculous, particularly the contrast between Rory and Johnson. Utter nonsense, it looks like Comres have been hacked by the Russians!
    Why is it the liberal left always have to blame the messenger if they dislike the message?
    Because this message is comedic nonsense. The PB Brexit-Tories meanwhile have taken this as gospel.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited June 2019

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    .
    .
    Indeed they are - against the British.

    And yet we signed the GFA...
    Which does not include the backstop...
    .


    .


    etc. etc.

    Maybe ye the EU?
    Yes. But before.
    With aller no deal as an outcome.
    That is with different interests.
    Have the EU once broken ranks during these negotiations? No. It has been remarkably as one.

    Macron was allowed to play to his domestic audience, but it was theatre. He will be allowed his stage again come October, but there is no way they will no deal without Irelands approval, and they wont get that.
    To my mind, this is as complacent and delusional as the Brexiteers who think No Deal will be a breeze.

    We shall see.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    In 1999 it was played even earlier with hardly any matches lost to rain.
    We’ve lost a few matches this week, but to say the tournament is broken is massively over the top.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    Confirms my theory earlier too that while Labour and LD voters may vote Rory 0 will vote for him while Tory voters flock en masse to the Brexit Party. The Tories fall to 5th under Rory behind the Brexit Party, Labour, the LDs and SNP.

    Astonishing too the difference a candidate's Brexit Party stance makes. The Tories trail Labour under Gove, Hunt, Stewart and Javid all of whom would see Corbyn PM of a Labour minority government with SNP and Labour support with the Brexit Party winning 64-123 seats and under Rory the Brexit Party wins over 200 seats to become largest party.

    Raab would see the Tories' largest party but it would still be a Corbyn minority government with SNP and LD support as the Brexit Party vote still holds up a bit. Boris though produces a Tory landslide due to the BP collapse.
    Rory is the death of the Conservative Party.

    The country is divided between Remainers and Leavers. Why would Remainers vote for a Stewart Conservative Party when they could vote for a real deal Remainer party?

    Why would Leavers vote for a Stewart Conservative Party when they could vote for a real deal Brexit Party?

    In 1993 Kim Campbell's Progressive Conservatives got torn between pleasing the Quebecois and the West and ended up being annihilated losing to both the Bloc Quebecois and the Reform Party ending with just 2 seats. The Tories can expect the same outcome for the same reasons under Rory.
    Well Rory does get about 50 seats so a bit better than Campbell but heavy defeat nonetheless, under PR rather than FPTP though you could imagine a Rory Tories doing a deal with the LDs v Farage's Brexit Party and Corbyn Labour
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968
    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    I remember when one day games could last three days.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    edited June 2019
    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    Crazy to not have reserve days. Or, indeed, reserve grounds. My youngest played an u15s game last night and an u18s game tonight. It hasn't rained at all up here since Saturday. Indeed Monday was glorious.
    I know it would take some switching around rapidly. But there was play at several County Championship games on both days.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,462
    edited June 2019
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    .
    .
    Indeed they are - against the British.

    And yet we signed the GFA...
    Which does not include the backstop...
    .


    .


    etc. etc.

    Maybe ye the EU?
    Yes. But before.
    With aller no deal as an outcome.
    That is with different interests.
    Have the EU once broken ranks during these negotiations? No. It has been remarkably as one.

    Macron was allowed to play to his domestic audience, but it was theatre. He will be allowed his stage again come October, but there is no way they will no deal without Irelands approval, and they wont get that.
    This is as complacent and delusional as the Brexiteers who think No Deal will be a breeze.

    We shall see.
    What is preferable to the EU about no deal compared to paralysis for the UK?

    No deal - Risk of contagion and recession, bad precedent, Ireland in huge trouble needing financial aid, loss of UK funding
    Paralysis - No contagion, overseas investment and good jobs shifting from UK to EU, EU seen as reasonable brokers by rest of world, Ireland fine, receive UK funding
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    MikeL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D

    Yes, I think Boris has to go for an immediate GE. Two reasons:

    First he'll have momentum from becoming PM.

    Second, and more important, he cannot risk failing to leave the EU on 31 October. If that happens he'll take a huge hit. He has to go for a GE while he's riding high and whilst people can still believe he'll do what he says.
    I don't think it'll be quite immediate. I'd anticipate Parliament will have their Summer recess through late July and August then they'll reconvene on 5th September and that's when Boris will announce there's going to be a vote to dissolve Parliament for a 17th October general election
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603
    MikeL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D

    Yes, I think Boris has to go for an immediate GE. Two reasons:

    First he'll have momentum from becoming PM.

    Second, and more important, he cannot risk failing to leave the EU on 31 October. If that happens he'll take a huge hit. He has to go for a GE while he's riding high and whilst people can still believe he'll do what he says.
    The flip side however is if it were not to go to plan, he would be an embarrasingly short incumbent PM.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    The poll is interesting but the seat calculations rely on Lab and LD remaining equally split. Seems more likely that anti Boris tactical voting would occur if he looked like he was doing well in the polls, much like May in 2017. A Tony Blair level landslide seems a touch optimistic.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    _Anazina_ said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    Have you seen the weather forecasts? The World Cup is broken. It's very sad.
    Hyperbole! Looks fine after midweek, at least down south.
    It really doesn't. I wish I was wrong - I was loving the distraction of the cricket. But I don't think I am wrong, sadly. London and the SE might improve from Monday on, but we will already have lost a load of games by then, making the result kinda suspect.

    And the next-two-weeks forecast for the rest of Britain (outside the SE) is pretty grim. This is already set to be the wettest June on record.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/11/uk-weather-sinkholes-force-closure-m25-deluge-prompts-flood/
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    Crazy to not have reserve days. Or, indeed, reserve grounds. My youngest played an u15s game last night and an u18s game tonight. It hasn't rained at all up here since Saturday. Indeed Monday was glorious.
    I know it would take some switching around rapidly. But there was play at several County Championship games on both days.
    That’s fair. It’s been a generally lovely day down here today with just a quick late shower. A switcheroo would be a wise option.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    The useful number in the ComRes is Johnson’s 37%. That’s a maximum. It’s low. The Labour and LD numbers would, in reality, clearly be heavily affected by tactical voting. This polling will excite a lot of people. It shouldn’t.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    No significant rain last few days here in Newcastle. Could easily have played some cricket at Chester Le Street!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    The useful number in the ComRes is Johnson’s 37%. That’s a maximum. It’s low. The Labour and LD numbers would, in reality, clearly be heavily affected by tactical voting. This polling will excite a lot of people. It shouldn’t.

    Johnson Tories + Brexit Party though =51%

    Labour + LDs =42%
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Hodges is wrong. Tory members are leavers and leavers believe in the power of DETERMINATION. There's no need to explain what you'll do if that doesn't work, just tell them that you are really, really DETERMINED.

    Then call an election, out-perform Theresa May and pass the WA.
    Why would we pass the WA?

    Once we've outperformed Theresa May we either get a good deal or leave without one.

    And don't forget that when Theresa May got her results her numbers included the likes of Wollaston, Boles and Grieves. When Boris gets his results they will have removed themselves from the equation.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The Labour motion tomorrow timing wise comes after Bozos campaign launch .

    So what he says re no deal could effect that . At the moment I wouldn’t bank on that motion carrying .

    It’s complicated by the leadership race , some Tories might be reluctant to do anything now .

    But what Johnson says at his launch might change that .
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603
    Trump's figures are remarkably consistent irrespective of who he is up against.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    The useful number in the ComRes is Johnson’s 37%. That’s a maximum. It’s low. The Labour and LD numbers would, in reality, clearly be heavily affected by tactical voting. This polling will excite a lot of people. It shouldn’t.

    Johnson Tories + Brexit Party though =51%

    Labour + LDs =42%
    That’s numberwang!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603
    HYUFD said:

    The useful number in the ComRes is Johnson’s 37%. That’s a maximum. It’s low. The Labour and LD numbers would, in reality, clearly be heavily affected by tactical voting. This polling will excite a lot of people. It shouldn’t.

    Johnson Tories + Brexit Party though =51%

    Labour + LDs =42%
    Dream on!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The useful number in the ComRes is Johnson’s 37%. That’s a maximum. It’s low. The Labour and LD numbers would, in reality, clearly be heavily affected by tactical voting. This polling will excite a lot of people. It shouldn’t.

    It's not a maximum. Brexit Party could fall through the floor with a credible Brexit Party in office.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    Crazy to not have reserve days. Or, indeed, reserve grounds. My youngest played an u15s game last night and an u18s game tonight. It hasn't rained at all up here since Saturday. Indeed Monday was glorious.
    I know it would take some switching around rapidly. But there was play at several County Championship games on both days.
    Totally agreed. Also, as we debated earlier, why isn't there at least one ground in England with a roof? The Aussies have one. They aren't THAT expensive.

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia/content/ground/56450.html

    England is the home of cricket. We are hosting a very blighted World Cup. Put a lid on it!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    The useful number in the ComRes is Johnson’s 37%. That’s a maximum. It’s low. The Labour and LD numbers would, in reality, clearly be heavily affected by tactical voting. This polling will excite a lot of people. It shouldn’t.

    The green number is the first one that gets squeezed by Labour in any sort of tactical game.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Though even Biden fails to beat Trump as much as Boris beats Corbyn
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136


    I thought the WA was a betrayal and that we need to get out with no deal ASAP before we all catch Ebola?

    Correct, that's why he'd run for election on renegotiating it.

    TBF if he can get a majority he can potentially replace the backstop with a border in the Irish Sea (or at least sketch out a concrete plan to do that, which would neutralize it), which is probably somewhat less upsetting to the ERG-inclined.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    @HYUFD your faith in ‘the poll’ is quite touching.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    Have you seen the weather forecasts? The World Cup is broken. It's very sad.
    Holding a lot of the matches in the south-west of England and Cardiff in early June was always a bit of a gamble. It's a pity we don't have more international cricket venues in East Anglia where it rains a lot less.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Byronic said:

    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    Crazy to not have reserve days. Or, indeed, reserve grounds. My youngest played an u15s game last night and an u18s game tonight. It hasn't rained at all up here since Saturday. Indeed Monday was glorious.
    I know it would take some switching around rapidly. But there was play at several County Championship games on both days.
    Totally agreed. Also, as we debated earlier, why isn't there at least one ground in England with a roof? The Aussies have one. They aren't THAT expensive.

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia/content/ground/56450.html

    England is the home of cricket. We are hosting a very blighted World Cup. Put a lid on it!
    I checked the weather forecast earlier today. In my city the symbol for the next 14 days is grey clouds with heavy rain. For 14 consecutive days. Not sure if the whole country is going to be like that but there won't be much cricket getting played in next few weeks if it is.

    Some summer so far.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826


    I thought the WA was a betrayal and that we need to get out with no deal ASAP before we all catch Ebola?

    Correct, that's why he'd run for election on renegotiating it.

    TBF if he can get a majority he can potentially replace the backstop with a border in the Irish Sea (or at least sketch out a concrete plan to do that, which would neutralize it), which is probably somewhat less upsetting to the ERG-inclined.
    Or we can have no backstop, or no deal.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Its seems like a lot of people are willing to believe in the bin....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    @Philip_Thompson what area of the economy do you work in?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1138559058686939138

    Those numbers don't look like a majority...

    I am really puzzled. Only 68% of 2017 Con voters will vote Conservative under Boris and yet Tories will get 37% of the vote [ down from 42% ]. Remember UKIP only got 4% in 2017. So virtually half of Labour voters [ where over 70% are Remain supporters ] will not vote Labour.

    I have difficulty getting that.
    Labour falls to just 22% on the poll with the Tories on 37% under Boris and the LDs up to 20%, Labour losing Leavers to Boris and Remainers to the LDs under Corbyn and heading for an even worse voteshare than Foot 1983
    We were being a similar story about Peterborough, right ? Just replace BXP with CON. What was Comres' last poll before 2017 election ?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    The useful number in the ComRes is Johnson’s 37%. That’s a maximum. It’s low. The Labour and LD numbers would, in reality, clearly be heavily affected by tactical voting. This polling will excite a lot of people. It shouldn’t.

    It's not a maximum. Brexit Party could fall through the floor with a credible Brexit Party in office.

    Right now everything can be projected onto Johnson. If BXP supporters are not prepared to back him in the abstract harsh reality is unlikely to persuade them. The only chance he might have is a snap election to get a No Deal mandate. But that then splits the Conservative party and ensures widespread anti-No Deal tactical voting.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1138559058686939138

    Those numbers don't look like a majority...

    I am really puzzled. Only 68% of 2017 Con voters will vote Conservative under Boris and yet Tories will get 37% of the vote [ down from 42% ]. Remember UKIP only got 4% in 2017. So virtually half of Labour voters [ where over 70% are Remain supporters ] will not vote Labour.

    I have difficulty getting that.
    Labour falls to just 22% on the poll with the Tories on 37% under Boris and the LDs up to 20%, Labour losing Leavers to Boris and Remainers to the LDs under Corbyn and heading for an even worse voteshare than Foot 1983
    We were being a similar story about Peterborough, right ? Just replace BXP with CON. What was Comres' last poll before 2017 election ?
    No, there was no polling of Peterborough and Electoral Calculus had Labour holding it based on the national polls.

    Boris has charisma, May did not
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    Byronic said:

    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    Crazy to not have reserve days. Or, indeed, reserve grounds. My youngest played an u15s game last night and an u18s game tonight. It hasn't rained at all up here since Saturday. Indeed Monday was glorious.
    I know it would take some switching around rapidly. But there was play at several County Championship games on both days.
    Totally agreed. Also, as we debated earlier, why isn't there at least one ground in England with a roof? The Aussies have one. They aren't THAT expensive.

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia/content/ground/56450.html

    England is the home of cricket. We are hosting a very blighted World Cup. Put a lid on it!
    Not only that, but the round robin doesn't finish till July 6! Given that a league system was the rationale behind cutting the number of teams to 10, for fairness, is it beyond the wit of the ICC to re-arrange games in the next 3-4 weeks? There must be windows of opportunity, surely?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    New Zealand @ 2.8 is far too long.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    @Philip_Thompson what area of the economy do you work in?

    Considering I've put my real name here I'd rather keep my private life private. No offence.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Byronic said:

    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    Crazy to not have reserve days. Or, indeed, reserve grounds. My youngest played an u15s game last night and an u18s game tonight. It hasn't rained at all up here since Saturday. Indeed Monday was glorious.
    I know it would take some switching around rapidly. But there was play at several County Championship games on both days.
    Totally agreed. Also, as we debated earlier, why isn't there at least one ground in England with a roof? The Aussies have one. They aren't THAT expensive.

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia/content/ground/56450.html

    England is the home of cricket. We are hosting a very blighted World Cup. Put a lid on it!
    I checked the weather forecast earlier today. In my city the symbol for the next 14 days is grey clouds with heavy rain. For 14 consecutive days. Not sure if the whole country is going to be like that but there won't be much cricket getting played in next few weeks if it is.

    Some summer so far.
    What is your city?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited June 2019
    Matthew Parris on Newsnight sounding like a raving conspiracy theorist. :D
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited June 2019

    Or we can have no backstop, or no deal.

    You're talking like Boris PM would also think No Deal would be fine, but in fact he will be advised by actual experts, not believers in the heroic power of DETERMINATION.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    Crazy to not have reserve days. Or, indeed, reserve grounds. My youngest played an u15s game last night and an u18s game tonight. It hasn't rained at all up here since Saturday. Indeed Monday was glorious.
    I know it would take some switching around rapidly. But there was play at several County Championship games on both days.
    Totally agreed. Also, as we debated earlier, why isn't there at least one ground in England with a roof? The Aussies have one. They aren't THAT expensive.

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia/content/ground/56450.html

    England is the home of cricket. We are hosting a very blighted World Cup. Put a lid on it!
    I checked the weather forecast earlier today. In my city the symbol for the next 14 days is grey clouds with heavy rain. For 14 consecutive days. Not sure if the whole country is going to be like that but there won't be much cricket getting played in next few weeks if it is.

    Some summer so far.
    What is your city?
    In the North West of England.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    @HYUFD your faith in ‘the poll’ is quite touching.

    Until the next one unless it does not accord with his meme.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Trump 42% is a familiar figure - his approval ratings have been stuck there for over a year now (other than a quick dip during the shutdown).

    Short of a war, he isn't getting re-elected unless that changes a lot.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    Crazy to not have reserve days. Or, indeed, reserve grounds. My youngest played an u15s game last night and an u18s game tonight. It hasn't rained at all up here since Saturday. Indeed Monday was glorious.
    I know it would take some switching around rapidly. But there was play at several County Championship games on both days.
    Totally agreed. Also, as we debated earlier, why isn't there at least one ground in England with a roof? The Aussies have one. They aren't THAT expensive.

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia/content/ground/56450.html

    England is the home of cricket. We are hosting a very blighted World Cup. Put a lid on it!
    I checked the weather forecast earlier today. In my city the symbol for the next 14 days is grey clouds with heavy rain. For 14 consecutive days. Not sure if the whole country is going to be like that but there won't be much cricket getting played in next few weeks if it is.

    Some summer so far.
    What is your city?
    In the North West of England.
    Funny how they don't seem to be holding any matches at Old Trafford so far. It's a weird schedule.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Alistair said:
    Under Hunt its Labour 25%, Tories 23%, Brexit Party 22%, LDs 21%

    Under Javid its Labour 24%, Brexit Party 23%, Tories 22%, LDs 20%

    Under Gove its Labour 25%, Tories 23%, Brexit Party 22%, LDs 21%

    Under Raab its Tories 25%, Labour 23%, LDs 21%, Brexit Party 20%

    Under Rory its Brexit Party 26%, Labour 24%, LDs 20%, Tories 19%


    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/The-Telegraph_Voting-Intention_June-2019.pdf
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136


    Right now everything can be projected onto Johnson. If BXP supporters are not prepared to back him in the abstract harsh reality is unlikely to persuade them. The only chance he might have is a snap election to get a No Deal mandate. But that then splits the Conservative party and ensures widespread anti-No Deal tactical voting.

    Disagree, he'll get most of them running on renegotiation. Unicorns live forever.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    That poll does confirm one thing, though - Johnson will be our next PM. I suspect he’ll be the last Tory one for a very, very long time.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    @Philip_Thompson what area of the economy do you work in?

    Considering I've put my real name here I'd rather keep my private life private. No offence.
    Well then why on earth should anyone believe that you are remotely qualified to have any informed opinion on whether a No Deal Brexit would be damaging or not?

    Especially when a vast majority of the people who’s actual job is to study this stuff think it’s a bad idea.

    You could work behind the counter of an off license for god sake.

    Begs belief.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Byronic said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    Have you seen the weather forecasts? The World Cup is broken. It's very sad.
    Hyperbole! Looks fine after midweek, at least down south.
    It really doesn't. I wish I was wrong - I was loving the distraction of the cricket. But I don't think I am wrong, sadly. London and the SE might improve from Monday on, but we will already have lost a load of games by then, making the result kinda suspect.

    And the next-two-weeks forecast for the rest of Britain (outside the SE) is pretty grim. This is already set to be the wettest June on record.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/11/uk-weather-sinkholes-force-closure-m25-deluge-prompts-flood/
    The forecast for Nottingham next week is also much better! I’d rather not have missed the games this week, but writing off the whole World Cup because of a few days of bad weather is daft!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    Crazy to not have reserve days. Or, indeed, reserve grounds. My youngest played an u15s game last night and an u18s game tonight. It hasn't rained at all up here since Saturday. Indeed Monday was glorious.
    I know it would take some switching around rapidly. But there was play at several County Championship games on both days.
    Totally agreed. Also, as we debated earlier, why isn't there at least one ground in England with a roof? The Aussies have one. They aren't THAT expensive.

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia/content/ground/56450.html

    England is the home of cricket. We are hosting a very blighted World Cup. Put a lid on it!
    Not only that, but the round robin doesn't finish till July 6! Given that a league system was the rationale behind cutting the number of teams to 10, for fairness, is it beyond the wit of the ICC to re-arrange games in the next 3-4 weeks? There must be windows of opportunity, surely?
    Yep. Witless organisation. Sure it would be difficult, but this is the World Cup, and it often rains in England in June. Some flexibility should have been built in, from the start. It is far too late now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Andrew said:


    Trump 42% is a familiar figure - his approval ratings have been stuck there for over a year now (other than a quick dip during the shutdown).

    Short of a war, he isn't getting re-elected unless that changes a lot.
    42% provides a base and the economy is still growing and if he avoids Biden I think he could defeat Sanders, Warren etc by hammering them as tax and spend leftwingers and cultural liberals
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879


    Right now everything can be projected onto Johnson. If BXP supporters are not prepared to back him in the abstract harsh reality is unlikely to persuade them. The only chance he might have is a snap election to get a No Deal mandate. But that then splits the Conservative party and ensures widespread anti-No Deal tactical voting.

    Disagree, he'll get most of them running on renegotiation. Unicorns live forever.

    Renegotiation is a betrayal. If there’s an election it means an extension. No Deal is the only true Brexit.

  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    @Philip_Thompson what area of the economy do you work in?

    Considering I've put my real name here I'd rather keep my private life private. No offence.
    Well then why on earth should anyone believe that you are remotely qualified to have any informed opinion on whether a No Deal Brexit would be damaging or not?

    Especially when a vast majority of the people who’s actual job is to study this stuff think it’s a bad idea.

    You could work behind the counter of an off license for god sake.

    Begs belief.
    Don’t insult him, he’ll flounce off again.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    Andrew said:


    Trump 42% is a familiar figure - his approval ratings have been stuck there for over a year now (other than a quick dip during the shutdown).

    Short of a war, he isn't getting re-elected unless that changes a lot.
    Maybe not even then. A war didn't get Bush Snr re-elected. Nor LBJ.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    @Philip_Thompson what area of the economy do you work in?

    Considering I've put my real name here I'd rather keep my private life private. No offence.
    Well then why on earth should anyone believe that you are remotely qualified to have any informed opinion on whether a No Deal Brexit would be damaging or not?

    Especially when a vast majority of the people who’s actual job is to study this stuff think it’s a bad idea.

    You could work behind the counter of an off license for god sake.

    Begs belief.
    Believe what you want.

    I could have written literally anything here and you would have no idea if I'm telling the truth or not. You want me to appeal to authority? That's a fallacy for gods sake. Judge my words on their merits, my thoughts on their logic. Not some nonsense appeal for authority.

    I made a decision many years ago not to mix work with politics. People have strong opinions on politics and it can just piss people off. So I don't discuss politics or religion at work, only online, and I won't discuss my work where I discuss politics. Its healthier to have a separation for me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    That poll does confirm one thing, though - Johnson will be our next PM. I suspect he’ll be the last Tory one for a very, very long time.

    On that poll Corbyn would poll worse than Foot v Boris and there is a chance the LDs could do what the SDP failed to do in 1983 and overtake Labour, the LDs are just 2% behind Corbyn Labour but Corbyn Labour is 15% behind Boris' Tories
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    _Anazina_ said:

    Byronic said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off tospare).

    Have you seen the weather forecasts? The World Cup is broken. It's very sad.
    Hyperbole! Looks fine after midweek, at least down south.
    It really doe

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/11/uk-weather-sinkholes-force-closure-m25-deluge-prompts-flood/
    The forecast for Nottingham next week is also much better! I’d rather not have missed the games this week, but writing off the whole World Cup because of a few days of bad weather is daft!
    The forecast says there is a small, four day window of OK Nottingham weather from next Monday. Then the rain returns. We are looking at one of those old-fashioned, 70s style, totally hideous British summers. This will ruin the World Cup, I think, as so many significant matches will be lost.


    https://www.holiday-weather.com/nottingham/forecast/

    Yes, I live to cheer.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603
    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:


    Trump 42% is a familiar figure - his approval ratings have been stuck there for over a year now (other than a quick dip during the shutdown).

    Short of a war, he isn't getting re-elected unless that changes a lot.
    42% provides a base and the economy is still growing and if he avoids Biden I think he could defeat Sanders, Warren etc by hammering them as tax and spend leftwingers and cultural liberals
    So the Quinnipiac poll is potentially inaccurate because you don't like its result, however the Comres poll is beyond question because you do?

  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited June 2019
    Matthew Parris talking about dark forces working for the Johnson campaign. Apart from Guido who we know about-and they don''t come any darker- who can he be talking about?


    He believes those forces are beind the Gove stories -as does Gove-and Parris and Gove know each other well.

    Time for Tories to fasten their seatbelts as BD famously said. You're in for a bumpy ride.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842

    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    Crazy to not have reserve days. Or, indeed, reserve grounds. My youngest played an u15s game last night and an u18s game tonight. It hasn't rained at all up here since Saturday. Indeed Monday was glorious.
    I know it would take some switching around rapidly. But there was play at several County Championship games on both days.
    Totally agreed. Also, as we debated earlier, why isn't there at least one ground in England with a roof? The Aussies have one. They aren't THAT expensive.

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia/content/ground/56450.html

    England is the home of cricket. We are hosting a very blighted World Cup. Put a lid on it!
    I checked the weather forecast earlier today. In my city the symbol for the next 14 days is grey clouds with heavy rain. For 14 consecutive days. Not sure if the whole country is going to be like that but there won't be much cricket getting played in next few weeks if it is.

    Some summer so far.
    What is your city?
    In the North West of England.
    Mmm. Real name. NW England. You didn't win several League titles as a centre back and become a SKY sports pundit, did you? :)
    Edit. Sure you're tired of that, sorry.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Roger said:

    Matthew Parris talking about dark forces working for the Johnson campaign. Apart from Guido who we know about-and they don''t come any darker- who can he be talking about?


    He believes those forces are beind the Gove stories -as does Gove-and Parris and Gove know each other well. Fasten your seatbelts as BD famously said. We're in for a bumpy ride.

    It's being run by Lynton I think.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Byronic said:

    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    Crazy to not have reserve days. Or, indeed, reserve grounds. My youngest played an u15s game last night and an u18s game tonight. It hasn't rained at all up here since Saturday. Indeed Monday was glorious.
    I know it would take some switching around rapidly. But there was play at several County Championship games on both days.
    Totally agreed. Also, as we debated earlier, why isn't there at least one ground in England with a roof? The Aussies have one. They aren't THAT expensive.

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia/content/ground/56450.html

    England is the home of cricket. We are hosting a very blighted World Cup. Put a lid on it!
    I checked the weather forecast earlier today. In my city the symbol for the next 14 days is grey clouds with heavy rain. For 14 consecutive days. Not sure if the whole country is going to be like that but there won't be much cricket getting played in next few weeks if it is.

    Some summer so far.
    The forecast isn’t the same in the SE as the NW, believe it or not! It’s much warmer and drier here. Hardly surprising given the large climatic difference between the two regions.

    I find it astounding, the complete ignorance of meteorology: “if it’s rainy here it must be rainy there”.

    London average rainfall pa 580mm
    Manchester average rainfall pa 929mm

    Quite a difference.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Roger said:

    Matthew Parris talking about dark forces working for the Johnson campaign. Apart from Guido who we know about-and they don''t come any darker- who can he be talking about?


    He believes those forces are beind the Gove stories -as does Gove-and Parris and Gove know each other well. Fasten your seatbelts as BD famously said. We're in for a bumpy ride.

    I thought he was going to accuse Boris of the Kennedy assassination and greasing Diana's breaks.

    Brexit has driven Parris mad. :D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    ).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    Crazy to not have reserve days. Or, indeed, reserve grounds. My youngest played an u15s game last night and an u18s game tonight. It hasn't rained at all up here since Saturday. Indeed Monday was glorious.
    I know it would take some switching around rapidly. But there was play at several County Championship games on both days.
    Totally agreed. Also, as we debated earlier, why isn't there at least one ground in England with a roof? The Aussies have one. They aren't THAT expensive.

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia/content/ground/56450.html

    England is the home of cricket. We are hosting a very blighted World Cup. Put a lid on it!
    Not only that, but the round robin doesn't finish till July 6! Given that a league system was the rationale behind cutting the number of teams to 10, for fairness, is it beyond the wit of the ICC to re-arrange games in the next 3-4 weeks? There must be windows of opportunity, surely?
    You’d think so. Long range weather forecasts are notoriously poor, but 72 or 48 hours out they’re usually not too bad.

    Ask for flexibility from the teams and the grounds, get floodlights in when they can to switch to a d/n if the morning is wet, £5 tickets and free for kids or anyone who missed the original match, run coaches and see what’s possible with discount train tickets etc etc.

    U.K. is a small country, and move people all around it every weekend for football fixtures, the logistics aren’t impossible. Most of us just want to see cricket being played.

    The biggest objections are going to be changing the rules and processes after the tournament starts, and how to deal with matches already abandoned with points awarded. In the end those may prevail.

    Maybe I should bang on the door of the ICC (they’re three miles down the road from me) in the morning and suggest it to them?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    Roger said:

    Matthew Parris talking about dark forces working for the Johnson campaign. Apart from Guido who we know about-and they don''t come any darker- who can he be talking about?


    He believes those forces are beind the Gove stories -as does Gove-and Parris and Gove know each other well.

    Time for Tories to fasten their seatbelts as BD famously said. You're in for a bumpy ride.

    The Telegraph has become a dark force recently. At least if you value quality journalism.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    Matthew Parris talking about dark forces working for the Johnson campaign. Apart from Guido who we know about-and they don''t come any darker- who can he be talking about?


    He believes those forces are beind the Gove stories -as does Gove-and Parris and Gove know each other well. Fasten your seatbelts as BD famously said. We're in for a bumpy ride.

    It's being run by Lynton I think.
    Possibly but the information will be coming from Guido. Pretty sick-making.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    That poll does confirm one thing, though - Johnson will be our next PM. I suspect he’ll be the last Tory one for a very, very long time.

    That won't concern him.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.

    Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).

    Have you seen the weather forecasts? The World Cup is broken. It's very sad.
    Holding a lot of the matches in the south-west of England and Cardiff in early June was always a bit of a gamble. It's a pity we don't have more international cricket venues in East Anglia where it rains a lot less.

    Fair point! It’s weird that the only international cricket grounds in dry areas of the country are in London and - perhaps to a slightly lesser extent - Nottingham. Most are, as you say, in the west and north.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    ).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    Crazy to not have reserve days. Or, indeed, reserve grounds. My youngest played an u15s game last night and an u18s game tonight. It hasn't rained at all up here since Saturday. Indeed Monday was glorious.
    I know it would take some switching around rapidly. But there was play at several County Championship games on both days.
    Totally agreed. Also, as we debated earlier, why isn't there at least one ground in England with a roof? The Aussies have one. They aren't THAT expensive.

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia/content/ground/56450.html

    England is the home of cricket. We are hosting a very blighted World Cup. Put a lid on it!
    Not only that, but the round robin doesn't finish till July 6! Given that a league system was the rationale behind cutting the number of teams to 10, for fairness, is it beyond the wit of the ICC to re-arrange games in the next 3-4 weeks? There must be windows of opportunity, surely?
    You’d think so. Long range weather forecasts are notoriously poor, but 72 or 48 hours out they’re usually not too bad.

    Ask for flexibility from the teams and the grounds, get floodlights in when they can to switch to a d/n if the morning is wet, £5 tickets and free for kids or anyone who missed the original match, run coaches and see what’s possible with discount train tickets etc etc.

    U.K. is a small country, and move people all around it every weekend for football fixtures, the logistics aren’t impossible. Most of us just want to see cricket being played.

    The biggest objections are going to be changing the rules and processes after the tournament starts, and how to deal with matches already abandoned with points awarded. In the end those may prevail.

    Maybe I should bang on the door of the ICC (they’re three miles down the road from me) in the morning and suggest it to them?
    Please do! The cricket was my one lifeline to sanity and good cheer. Now it's gone.

    :(
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Byronic said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    ).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    Crazy to not have reserve days. Or, indeed, reserve grounds. My youngest played an u15s game last night and an u18s game tonight. It hasn't rained at all up here since Saturday. Indeed Monday was glorious.
    I know it would take some switching around rapidly. But there was play at several County Championship games on both days.
    Totally agreed. Also, as we debated earlier, why isn't there at least one ground in England with a roof? The Aussies have one. They aren't THAT expensive.

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia/content/ground/56450.html

    England is the home of cricket. We are hosting a very blighted World Cup. Put a lid on it!
    Not only that, but the round robin doesn't finish till July 6! Given that a league system was the rationale behind cutting the number of teams to 10, for fairness, is it beyond the wit of the ICC to re-arrange games in the next 3-4 weeks? There must be windows of opportunity, surely?
    You’d think so. Long range weather forecasts are notoriously poor, but 72 or 48 hours out they’re usually not too bad.

    Ask for flexibility from the teams and the grounds, get floodlights in when they can to switch to a d/n if the morning is wet, £5 tickets and free for kids or anyone who missed the original match, run coaches and see what’s possible with discount train tickets etc etc.

    U.K. is a small country, and move people all around it every weekend for football fixtures, the logistics aren’t impossible. Most of us just want to see cricket being played.

    The biggest objections are going to be changing the rules and processes after the tournament starts, and how to deal with matches already abandoned with points awarded. In the end those may prevail.

    Maybe I should bang on the door of the ICC (they’re three miles down the road from me) in the morning and suggest it to them?
    Please do! The cricket was my one lifeline to sanity and good cheer. Now it's gone.

    :(
    Womens football world cup is on....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    edited June 2019

    @Philip_Thompson what area of the economy do you work in?

    Considering I've put my real name here I'd rather keep my private life private. No offence.
    Well then why on earth should anyone believe that you are remotely qualified to have any informed opinion on whether a No Deal Brexit would be damaging or not?

    Especially when a vast majority of the people who’s actual job is to study this stuff think it’s a bad idea.

    You could work behind the counter of an off license for god sake.

    Begs belief.
    Believe what you want.

    I could have written literally anything here and you would have no idea if I'm telling the truth or not. You want me to appeal to authority? That's a fallacy for gods sake. Judge my words on their merits, my thoughts on their logic. Not some nonsense appeal for authority.

    I made a decision many years ago not to mix work with politics. People have strong opinions on politics and it can just piss people off. So I don't discuss politics or religion at work, only online, and I won't discuss my work where I discuss politics. Its healthier to have a separation for me.
    I didn’t ask you to talk about politics at work, I asked what area of the economy you worked in because if it was an area that had little contact with the European market, you might be forgiven into thinking that it didn’t matter.

    People see a modern engineered ‘I’ beam joist and think that logically a huge lump of old oak is going to be stronger than that and refuse to reason despite being completely and utterly wrong.

    Same with Brexit. You can’t logic your way past actual facts. If you could we would still be thinking the sun went round the earth.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited June 2019


    Renegotiation is a betrayal. If there’s an election it means an extension. No Deal is the only true Brexit.

    I think there's still time to squeeze in a general election and a quick unicorn ride over to Brussels before the current extension turns back into a pumpkin?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    Byronic said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    ).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    Crazy to not have reserve days. Or, indeed, reserve grounds. My youngest played an u15s game last night and an u18s game tonight. It hasn't rained at all up here since Saturday. Indeed Monday was glorious.
    I know it would take some switching around rapidly. But there was play at several County Championship games on both days.
    Totally agreed. Also, as we debated earlier, why isn't there at least one ground in England with a roof? The Aussies have one. They aren't THAT expensive.

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia/content/ground/56450.html

    England is the home of cricket. We are hosting a very blighted World Cup. Put a lid on it!
    Not only that, but the round robin doesn't finish till July 6! Given that a league system was the rationale behind cutting the number of teams to 10, for fairness, is it beyond the wit of the ICC to re-arrange games in the next 3-4 weeks? There must be windows of opportunity, surely?
    You’d think so. Long range weather forecasts are notoriously poor, but 72 or 48 hours out they’re usually not too bad.

    Ask for flexibility from the teams and the grounds, get floodlights in when they can to switch to a d/n if the morning is wet, £5 tickets and free for kids or anyone who missed the original match, run coaches and see what’s possible with discount train tickets etc etc.

    U.K. is a small country, and move people all around it every weekend for football fixtures, the logistics aren’t impossible. Most of us just want to see cricket being played.

    The biggest objections are going to be changing the rules and processes after the tournament starts, and how to deal with matches already abandoned with points awarded. In the end those may prevail.

    Maybe I should bang on the door of the ICC (they’re three miles down the road from me) in the morning and suggest it to them?
    Please do! The cricket was my one lifeline to sanity and good cheer. Now it's gone.

    :(
    Womens football world cup is on....
    The cricket seemed to give you a heart attack every time Francis
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:


    Trump 42% is a familiar figure - his approval ratings have been stuck there for over a year now (other than a quick dip during the shutdown).

    Short of a war, he isn't getting re-elected unless that changes a lot.
    42% provides a base and the economy is still growing and if he avoids Biden I think he could defeat Sanders, Warren etc by hammering them as tax and spend leftwingers and cultural liberals
    So the Quinnipiac poll is potentially inaccurate because you don't like its result, however the Comres poll is beyond question because you do?

    I never said it was inaccurate I said what Trump would need to do to win
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    We all maybe surprised by the number of votes he receives in the first round.
    Do 267 Tory MPs want to risk losing their seats under Rory though as Comres suggests?
    If those Tory MPs have any sense they will recall that at the last election the PM had a poll lead >20 points, but because she was inept, incapable of talking to people and unable to tell a story that could engage the public, she blew almost all that lead and lost Tory seats.

    Instead they could choose a leader who can talk to people, has the potential to change minds and just might be the best hope for uniting a very divided country.

    If it was all about opinion polls then Theresa May would be PM with a huge majority.

    I'm a big fan of opinion polls. Although imperfect, they are the only quantitative evidence that we have. Sometimes, though, you have to go beyond the available evidence and make a judgement call about what you anticipate the future changes could or might be.

    I have swallowed the Rory kool-aid in full, and I think he represents the Tories best hope of escaping the trap they currently find themselves in - and saving the country from the shambles of a Corbyn ministry.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    Only about 75 Tory MPs have not endorsed a candidate at some stage, although that excludes quite a few who were supporting candidates who are no longer in the race.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    dixiedean said:


    Maybe not even then. A war didn't get Bush Snr re-elected. Nor LBJ.

    Bush Sr timed it badly :-) The war gave him 80%ish approval ratings, but a year later ...... down in Trump territory.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:
    Under Hunt its Labour 25%, Tories 23%, Brexit Party 22%, LDs 21%

    Under Javid its Labour 24%, Brexit Party 23%, Tories 22%, LDs 20%

    Under Gove its Labour 25%, Tories 23%, Brexit Party 22%, LDs 21%

    Under Raab its Tories 25%, Labour 23%, LDs 21%, Brexit Party 20%

    Under Rory its Brexit Party 26%, Labour 24%, LDs 20%, Tories 19%


    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/The-Telegraph_Voting-Intention_June-2019.pdf
    This Comres poll simply underestimates Labour by a minimum of 5% just like most polls overestimates BXP by 5%. Note Labour vote does not change much because of Boris.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting comments by Matthew Parris about icing sugar on tonight's Newsnight in relation to one of the candidates.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879


    Renegotiation is a betrayal. If there’s an election it means an extension. No Deal is the only true Brexit.

    I think there's still time to squeeze in a general election and a quick unicorn ride over to Brussels before the current extension turns back into a pumpkin?

    But that then raises a whole new set of questions for the GE. What’s the earliest one could happen? It must be mid-September. Will Johnson really claim he can renegotiate a new deal in six weeks? I doubt even the ERG would swallow it. So he’d have to go on an explicitly No Deal manifesto. And that means a Tory split and a lot of people voting tactically to prevent it.

  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    No significant rain last few days here in Newcastle. Could easily have played some cricket at Chester Le Street!

    What, so you are saying that when it rained in Sean’s back garden it wasn’t also raining in your back garden? I refuse to believe it!!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    ).

    For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on Thursday

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13

    They won't bowl a ball.

    What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.
    Crazy to not have reserve days. Or, indeed, reserve grounds. My youngest played an u15s game last night and an u18s game tonight. It hasn't rained at all up here since Saturday. Indeed Monday was glorious.
    I know it would take some switching around rapidly. But there was play at several County Championship games on both days.
    Totally agreed. Also, as we debated earlier, why isn't there at least one ground in England with a roof? The Aussies have one. They aren't THAT expensive.

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia/content/ground/56450.html

    England is the home of cricket. We are hosting a very blighted World Cup. Put a lid on it!
    Not only that, but the round robin doesn't finish till July 6! Given that a league system was the rationale behind cutting the number of teams to 10, for fairness, is it beyond the wit of the ICC to re-arrange games in the next 3-4 weeks? There must be windows of opportunity, surely?
    You’d think so. Long range weather forecasts are notoriously poor, but 72 or 48 hours out they’re usually not too bad.

    Ask for flexibility from the teams and the grounds, get floodlights in when they can to switch to a d/n if the morning is wet, £5 tickets and free for kids or anyone who missed the original match, run coaches and see what’s possible with discount train tickets etc etc.

    U.K. is a small country, and move people all around it every weekend for football fixtures, the logistics aren’t impossible. Most of us just want to see cricket being played.

    The biggest objections are going to be changing the rules and processes after the tournament starts, and how to deal with matches already abandoned with points awarded. In the end those may prevail.

    Maybe I should bang on the door of the ICC (they’re three miles down the road from me) in the morning and suggest it to them?
    We have 18 counties. Each with at least 2 first class grounds. Some more. In a tiny country compared to any other hosts. It is not so much changing the rules after the fact, but the total lack of contingency planning for an entirely foreseeable situation which rankles.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274


    The cricket seemed to give you a heart attack every time Francis

    Nah...if you wanted to see me having a heart attack...last ryder cup...it was that bad i nearly was forced to serve box wine for christmas.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Looking at the Quinnipiac poll, one might tend to the view that just as our American friends are coming to their senses, we are taking leave of ours.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited June 2019
    Andrew said:

    dixiedean said:


    Maybe not even then. A war didn't get Bush Snr re-elected. Nor LBJ.

    Bush Sr timed it badly :-) The war gave him 80%ish approval ratings, but a year later ...... down in Trump territory.
    Reagan by contrast had an approval rating of just 35% in January 1983, 7% below Trump's rating now, just over a year later as the economy continued to grow Reagan was re elected by a landslide of 59% to 41% for former VP Walter Mondale and 525 EC votes to 13

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspx



    https://news.gallup.com/poll/257645/trump-approval-edges-down.aspx?g_source=link_NEWSV9&g_medium=TOPIC&g_campaign=item_&g_content=Trump%20Approval%20Edges%20Down%20to%2042%25

  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting comments by Matthew Parris about icing sugar on tonight's Newsnight in relation to one of the candidates.

    What did he say?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    _Anazina_ said:

    No significant rain last few days here in Newcastle. Could easily have played some cricket at Chester Le Street!

    What, so you are saying that when it rained in Sean’s back garden it wasn’t also raining in your back garden? I refuse to believe it!!
    Uh, lol. I am not Sean. Etc. I know others find this laughable, but I am a small new poster trying to achieve his own identity, and it is quite discouraging to be casually dismissed as a pathetic shadow of a lost PB titan.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    We all maybe surprised by the number of votes he receives in the first round.
    Do 267 Tory MPs want to risk losing their seats under Rory though as Comres suggests?
    If those Tory MPs have any sense they will recall that at the last election the PM had a poll lead >20 points, but because she was inept, incapable of talking to people and unable to tell a story that could engage the public, she blew almost all that lead and lost Tory seats.

    Instead they could choose a leader who can talk to people, has the potential to change minds and just might be the best hope for uniting a very divided country.

    If it was all about opinion polls then Theresa May would be PM with a huge majority.

    I'm a big fan of opinion polls. Although imperfect, they are the only quantitative evidence that we have. Sometimes, though, you have to go beyond the available evidence and make a judgement call about what you anticipate the future changes could or might be.

    I have swallowed the Rory kool-aid in full, and I think he represents the Tories best hope of escaping the trap they currently find themselves in - and saving the country from the shambles of a Corbyn ministry.
    May still got 42% and 318 seats and stayed PM and leader of the largest party, Rory is projected to get just 19% and 51 seats and see the Tories fall to 4th place
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Nadine Dorries is getting excited about the Boris 140 seat majority poll:

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1138566635101523976
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    @Philip_Thompson what area of the economy do you work in?

    Considering I've put my real name here I'd rather keep my private life private. No offence.
    Well then why on earth should anyone believe that you are remotely qualified to have any informed opinion on whether a No Deal Brexit would be damaging or not?

    Especially when a vast majority of the people who’s actual job is to study this stuff think it’s a bad idea.

    You could work behind the counter of an off license for god sake.

    Begs belief.
    Believe what you want.

    I could have written literally anything here and you would have no idea if I'm telling the truth or not. You want me to appeal to authority? That's a fallacy for gods sake. Judge my words on their merits, my thoughts on their logic. Not some nonsense appeal for authority.

    I made a decision many years ago not to mix work with politics. People have strong opinions on politics and it can just piss people off. So I don't discuss politics or religion at work, only online, and I won't discuss my work where I discuss politics. Its healthier to have a separation for me.
    That's fair enough. I mean you are still evidently absolutely bonkers with all your talk of fighting them on the beaches and all but that is a sensible approach to an internet chat room
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Byronic said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    No significant rain last few days here in Newcastle. Could easily have played some cricket at Chester Le Street!

    What, so you are saying that when it rained in Sean’s back garden it wasn’t also raining in your back garden? I refuse to believe it!!
    Uh, lol. I am not Sean. Etc. I know others find this laughable, but I am a small new poster trying to achieve his own identity, and it is quite discouraging to be casually dismissed as a pathetic shadow of a lost PB titan.
    Again, you still hadn’t actually told me one way or another! In any case, who cares? Keep posting, keep up the good work.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    _Anazina_ said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting comments by Matthew Parris about icing sugar on tonight's Newsnight in relation to one of the candidates.

    What did he say?
    I don't want to get the quote wrong, but it'll be on BBC iPlayer.

    At 37 mins 37 secs:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0005x2y/newsnight-11062019
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    AndyJS said:

    Nadine Dorries is getting excited about the Boris 140 seat majority poll:

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1138566635101523976

    "Nadine Dorries is getting excited..." And I was just about to wish everyone a peaceful night. I guess sweet dreams are out?
This discussion has been closed.