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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chuka joins the Lib Dems but will he be able to retain Streath

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chuka joins the Lib Dems but will he be able to retain Streatham at the next GE

This was Chuka's result in Streatham at GE2017. Will be able to defend that as an LD. The seat had just about the biggest remain vote at the referendum. pic.twitter.com/XpGgdVwzL8

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,978
    LD gain.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,978
    Blimey, that is Chuka Umunna's third party in four months.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    Second like Labour
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    First non white Lib Dem Mp for 15 years.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.

    He’s not Gay
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,978
    Awks

    CHUKA ON THE LIB DEMS

    “You can’t change the status quo if you’re going to rejoin it. So there are going to be no mergers, we are not going to join the Liberal Democrats. We are saying there needs to be a new offer, a new alternative . . . Because the status quo is broken.”
    February 18, 2019 — at a press conference for the launch of the Independent Group

    “The Liberal Democrats are trying to bury their recent past as the enablers of Tory austerity, but working people will not forget or forgive the damage they did in government and what it is still doing to our communities.”
    25 April 2017 — comment piece in The Independent

    “What the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives have done to our public services since 2010 and the cuts to support for those on low incomes, the disabled and others in need is unforgivable. Whatever common ground Labour may have with them on Brexit, we cannot ignore this.”
    23 April 2017 — Facebook post

    “The Lib Dems should admit the truth: they have broken their promises and backed the Tories all the way. Over and over again, they have said one thing and done another; that’s why nobody believes a word Nick Clegg and Vince Cable say.” 16 September 2013 — after Mr Cable’s Glasgow conference speech

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Is Vince going back to Labour ?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.

    He’s not Gay
    lol. K.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Blimey, that is Chuka Umunna's third party in four months.

    Fifty third if you include the various avatars of CUK.

    I do hope he is bringing some really helpful renaming suggestions with him.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,978
    TGOHF said:

    Is Vince going back to Labour ?
    Sir Vince is a true Thatcherite, he did what Thatcher didn't have the balls to do, privatise the Royal Mail.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.

    He’s not Gay
    Byronic's got form here. Yesterday Byron, today Chukka. Who will he unwittingly and incorrectly out tomorrow? :)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.

    Completely agree.

    Nice bloke, interesting thoughts, and I'd like to hear what he thinks in the future whatever banner he happens to be standing under.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Blimey, news comes thick and fast at the moment.

    I think it is excellent news.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    TGOHF said:

    Is Vince going back to Labour ?
    What do you think? The Labour Vince had anything to do with has been dead for at least three years.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Is Vince going back to Labour ?
    Sir Vince is a true Thatcherite, he did what Thatcher didn't have the balls to do, privatise the Royal Mail.
    And introduced student loans.

    LDs do seem to be a gateway drug.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    dixiedean said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.

    He’s not Gay
    Byronic's got form here. Yesterday Byron, today Chukka. Who will he unwittingly and incorrectly out tomorrow? :)
    ME!

    AKA William Pitt the Younger.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/sep/03/homophobia-and-high-office

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.

    He’s not Gay
    Married with a daughter
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.

    Two elections' time could be Jan 2020.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited June 2019
    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    Has Chuka just been "outed" on PB? :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Blimey, that is Chuka Umunna's third party in four months.

    Fourth, surely.

    Lab - > TIG -> Change UK -> Whatever he was called last week -> LDs
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.

    He’s not Gay
    Maybe Byronic has more first hand experience of his sexual orientation than you do.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.

    He’s not Gay
    Married with a daughter
    For the purposes of PB's lawyers, if he isn't gay or bi, then I sincerely apologise to him and I am happy to retract my prior remarks, which were wholly wrong and historically mis-informed, etc etc etc etc etc

  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Persian Gulf tensions

    It seems remarkable that there is very little information on how exactly someone actually attacked the tankers today. If it is limpet mines, which is suggested, where exactly did these mines turn up?

    Its there that you can source and interdict the attacks.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    edited June 2019

    TGOHF said:

    Is Vince going back to Labour ?
    Sir Vince is a true Thatcherite, he did what Thatcher didn't have the balls to do, privatise the Royal Mail.
    When are you defecting to the LibDems, TSE?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.

    He’s not Gay
    Maybe Byronic has more first hand experience of his sexual orientation than you do.
    Back in the day @Byronic post could have been the basis for a News Of The Screws front page exclusive! :D
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405
    I guess we'll get to see how big Chuka's personal vote is at the next GE.

    I'm guessing 'not very'.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    Y0kel said:

    Persian Gulf tensions

    It seems remarkable that there is very little information on how exactly someone actually attacked the tankers today. If it is limpet mines, which is suggested, where exactly did these mines turn up?

    Its there that you can source and interdict the attacks.

    False flag?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.

    He’s not Gay
    Married with a daughter
    That doesn't make him straight.

    Do you have any evidence he is not attracted to men?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,288
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Vince going back to Labour ?
    Sir Vince is a true Thatcherite, he did what Thatcher didn't have the balls to do, privatise the Royal Mail.
    And introduced student loans.

    LDs do seem to be a gateway drug.
    That was Tony Blair's Labour surely?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student_loans_in_the_United_Kingdom#Introduction_of_tuition_fees
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.

    He’s not Gay
    Married with a daughter
    For the purposes of PB's lawyers, if he isn't gay or bi, then I sincerely apologise to him and I am happy to retract my prior remarks, which were wholly wrong and historically mis-informed, etc etc etc etc etc

    Easy mistake to make. After all it can't be said he doesn't play for several teams.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,978

    TGOHF said:

    Is Vince going back to Labour ?
    Sir Vince is a true Thatcherite, he did what Thatcher didn't have the balls to do, privatise the Royal Mail.
    When are you defecting to the LibDems, TSE?
    Never.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    TGOHF said:

    First non white Lib Dem Mp for 15 years.

    Layla is half-Palestinian
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    Awks

    CHUKA ON THE LIB DEMS

    “You can’t change the status quo if you’re going to rejoin it. So there are going to be no mergers, we are not going to join the Liberal Democrats. We are saying there needs to be a new offer, a new alternative . . . Because the status quo is broken.”
    February 18, 2019 — at a press conference for the launch of the Independent Group

    “The Liberal Democrats are trying to bury their recent past as the enablers of Tory austerity, but working people will not forget or forgive the damage they did in government and what it is still doing to our communities.”
    25 April 2017 — comment piece in The Independent

    “What the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives have done to our public services since 2010 and the cuts to support for those on low incomes, the disabled and others in need is unforgivable. Whatever common ground Labour may have with them on Brexit, we cannot ignore this.”
    23 April 2017 — Facebook post

    “The Lib Dems should admit the truth: they have broken their promises and backed the Tories all the way. Over and over again, they have said one thing and done another; that’s why nobody believes a word Nick Clegg and Vince Cable say.” 16 September 2013 — after Mr Cable’s Glasgow conference speech

    “Chuka Umunna today urged Remain campaigners to abandon calls for a second referendum or risk being seen as a metropolitan elite “who think they know best”.

    “I really have no time for calls for a second referendum because I think it comes across as disrespectful to those who voted to leave,” December 2016 interview with the Standard
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    o/t

    Iran - small scale niggly attacks on shipping... really? Why?

    I think quite highly of the Iranian people, and think quite ill of their government. Nonetheless this makes no sense.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Good for Chuka, I'm sure it will be a good fit.
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:
    I'm not sure why Philip Lee actually stood for the Conservatives in 2017, if Brexit was intolerable to him.
    People don't like change. There's any number of MPs who seem like they would be happier in other parties. It also may not fit with the sense of identity, however ridiculous.
    IanB2 said:

    Laura K confirms Vince is in talks with other CUK’s about joining.

    Well Vince has overegged the 'I'm in talks with people to defect to us' talk before, but with a bunch who have already defected from their old parties, for reasons that align with the LDs, he might finally be right.

    TGOHF said:

    Is Vince going back to Labour ?
    Sir Vince is a true Thatcherite, he did what Thatcher didn't have the balls to do, privatise the Royal Mail.
    When are you defecting to the LibDems, TSE?
    Never.
    An awfully definitive statement when the Tories might well lurch to positions you find even more unpalatable, and very soon to boot.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    “Just because you suck a few dicks it doesn’t make you gay”

    Donald Trump 2015.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Hah! Britain's oldest woman - 112 - has died.

    Her advice for us all, to match her long long life?

    Never Drink In The Day.

    The truest words I have heard all week. Hemingway would do two bottles of white at lunch, and he shot himself aged 62. Point proven.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Vince going back to Labour ?
    Sir Vince is a true Thatcherite, he did what Thatcher didn't have the balls to do, privatise the Royal Mail.
    And introduced student loans.

    LDs do seem to be a gateway drug.
    Vince was right about the share price of Royal Mail though.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.

    He’s not Gay
    Married with a daughter
    That doesn't make him straight.

    Do you have any evidence he is not attracted to men?
    I said he was married with a daughter. And so he is.

    In this day and age the rest of this discussion isn’t edifying, or important.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    I guess we'll get to see how big Chuka's personal vote is at the next GE.

    I'm guessing 'not very'.

    I think it's more a question of how Remain-ery Streatham really is, and when the next election is.

    If it's soon, and Corbyn is seen as a Leaver, and Streatham really is as opposed to Brexit as the Referendum suggested...

    Then you could see him hold it. We'll see, I guess.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    I guess we'll get to see how big Chuka's personal vote is at the next GE.

    I'm guessing 'not very'.

    Probably not, but whatever one thinks of the man he didn't defect from Labour because it was a guarantee of a long and easy political career.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    It’s probably an easier move from the Tories to the Lib Dems politically in terms of awkward questions . I expect Chukka will receive a lot of abuse about his move but I’ve always liked him and wish him well .

    Now for Wollaston and Allen to move over aswell which I think would be very likely .

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited June 2019
    On Topic. This doesn't look like the easiest LD gain out there. I know, I know, sitting MP ( as long as he stays in this party that is), ultra Remain, etc, etc. But Labour's BAME vote has held up well, and they are coming from a HECK of a way behind...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Byronic said:

    Hah! Britain's oldest woman - 112 - has died.

    Her advice for us all, to match her long long life?

    Never Drink In The Day.

    The truest words I have heard all week. Hemingway would do two bottles of white at lunch, and he shot himself aged 62. Point proven.

    If he'd had sufficient lunch he'd have safely missed.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405

    Y0kel said:

    Persian Gulf tensions

    It seems remarkable that there is very little information on how exactly someone actually attacked the tankers today. If it is limpet mines, which is suggested, where exactly did these mines turn up?

    Its there that you can source and interdict the attacks.

    False flag?
    Don't suggest that - you'll encourage a load of Momentumites to tweet that it must have been Mosad wot done it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    isam said:

    Awks

    CHUKA ON THE LIB DEMS

    “You can’t change the status quo if you’re going to rejoin it. So there are going to be no mergers, we are not going to join the Liberal Democrats. We are saying there needs to be a new offer, a new alternative . . . Because the status quo is broken.”
    February 18, 2019 — at a press conference for the launch of the Independent Group

    “The Liberal Democrats are trying to bury their recent past as the enablers of Tory austerity, but working people will not forget or forgive the damage they did in government and what it is still doing to our communities.”
    25 April 2017 — comment piece in The Independent

    “What the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives have done to our public services since 2010 and the cuts to support for those on low incomes, the disabled and others in need is unforgivable. Whatever common ground Labour may have with them on Brexit, we cannot ignore this.”
    23 April 2017 — Facebook post

    “The Lib Dems should admit the truth: they have broken their promises and backed the Tories all the way. Over and over again, they have said one thing and done another; that’s why nobody believes a word Nick Clegg and Vince Cable say.” 16 September 2013 — after Mr Cable’s Glasgow conference speech

    “Chuka Umunna today urged Remain campaigners to abandon calls for a second referendum or risk being seen as a metropolitan elite “who think they know best”.

    “I really have no time for calls for a second referendum because I think it comes across as disrespectful to those who voted to leave,” December 2016 interview with the Standard
    Exactly! He wants to revoke without messing around with a second referendum.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.

    He’s not Gay
    Married with a daughter
    That doesn't make him straight.

    Do you have any evidence he is not attracted to men?
    I said he was married with a daughter. And so he is.

    In this day and age the rest of this discussion isn’t edifying, or important.
    I agree, as it happens, and I am (genuinely) sorry for the flippancy of my remark.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Who?

    :smiley:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Awks

    CHUKA ON THE LIB DEMS

    “You can’t change the status quo if you’re going to rejoin it. So there are going to be no mergers, we are not going to join the Liberal Democrats. We are saying there needs to be a new offer, a new alternative . . . Because the status quo is broken.”
    February 18, 2019 — at a press conference for the launch of the Independent Group

    “The Liberal Democrats are trying to bury their recent past as the enablers of Tory austerity, but working people will not forget or forgive the damage they did in government and what it is still doing to our communities.”
    25 April 2017 — comment piece in The Independent

    “What the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives have done to our public services since 2010 and the cuts to support for those on low incomes, the disabled and others in need is unforgivable. Whatever common ground Labour may have with them on Brexit, we cannot ignore this.”
    23 April 2017 — Facebook post

    “The Lib Dems should admit the truth: they have broken their promises and backed the Tories all the way. Over and over again, they have said one thing and done another; that’s why nobody believes a word Nick Clegg and Vince Cable say.” 16 September 2013 — after Mr Cable’s Glasgow conference speech

    The very latest quotes are difficult, but in fairness the LDs had failed to break through despite seeming like they should be rewarded for being the only (pan-GB) party that was unequivocal for Remain, and there seemed thepossibility they could be eclipsed.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Byronic said:

    Hah! Britain's oldest woman - 112 - has died.

    Her advice for us all, to match her long long life?

    Never Drink In The Day.

    The truest words I have heard all week. Hemingway would do two bottles of white at lunch, and he shot himself aged 62. Point proven.

    Hmmmmmm..... ;)
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited June 2019
    Chukka will have to put up with the jibes for a while but he's a strong presence and is a big gain for the LibDems.

    If the rumours are also true about Phillip Lee and if Brecon and Radnor goes to recall, with a likely LibDem gain then the Cons majority even with DUP will be 1.

    I don't think there's any way Boris will try to continue under those circumstances. He would be at the beck and call of any whim on his backbenches and he is a very divisive figure. Remember, nearly 2/3rds of his MPs didn't back him today.

    I think we are nailed on for a 2019 General Election. I don't even think it will be via a VONC. Boris will just go for it under a Brexit mandate. He's risky and arrogant enough. Corbyn will be delighted to take him on. That may be foolhardy.

    LibDems may come out of this very very well.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.

    He’s not Gay
    Maybe Byronic has more first hand experience of his sexual orientation than you do.
    Genuine lol here in rainy Richmond-upon-Thames.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,288

    I guess we'll get to see how big Chuka's personal vote is at the next GE.

    I'm guessing 'not very'.

    We're more likely to see how big the Remain vote is in Streatham.

    I'm guessing 'very'.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    Chukka will have to put up with the jibes for a while but he's a strong presence and is a big gain for the LibDems.

    If the rumours are also true about Phillip Lee and if Brecon and Radnor goes to recall, with a likely LibDem gain then the Cons majority even with DUP will be 1.

    I don't think there's any way Boris will try to continue under those circumstances. He would be at the beck and call of any whim on his backbenches and he is a very divisive figure. Remember, nearly 2/3rds of his MPs didn't back him today.

    I think we are nailed on for a 2019 General Election. I don't even think it will be via a VONC. Boris will just go for it under a Brexit mandate. He's risky and arrogant enough. Corbyn will be delighted to take him on. That may be foolhardy.

    LibDems may come out of this very very well.

    Agree on Chukka. Excellent news for LDs. Although he may prove a handful for Jo Swinson.

    Not convinced about Boris cutting and running unless he absolutely has to.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited June 2019
    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,288

    Chukka will have to put up with the jibes for a while but he's a strong presence and is a big gain for the LibDems.

    If the rumours are also true about Phillip Lee and if Brecon and Radnor goes to recall, with a likely LibDem gain then the Cons majority even with DUP will be 1.

    I don't think there's any way Boris will try to continue under those circumstances. He would be at the beck and call of any whim on his backbenches and he is a very divisive figure. Remember, nearly 2/3rds of his MPs didn't back him today.

    I think we are nailed on for a 2019 General Election. I don't even think it will be via a VONC. Boris will just go for it under a Brexit mandate. He's risky and arrogant enough. Corbyn will be delighted to take him on. That may be foolhardy.

    LibDems may come out of this very very well.

    All this may indeed come to pass.

    Sounds quite plausible to me.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    If I had said Rory would be 3rd fav a month ago, you would have laughed and asked me if I was on the opium.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Chuka stands a chance of holding the seat for the Lib Dems in the right circumstances i.e. a Brexit election with Labour still ambivalent.

    While the Lib Dems were 35,000 votes behind in 2017, they were an order of magnitude closer in 2010 and the Lib Dems won Lambeth comfortably at the Euro-elections. That's not to say it'd be easy but it's certainly something to work with.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Chukka will have to put up with the jibes for a while but he's a strong presence and is a big gain for the LibDems.

    If the rumours are also true about Phillip Lee and if Brecon and Radnor goes to recall, with a likely LibDem gain then the Cons majority even with DUP will be 1.

    I don't think there's any way Boris will try to continue under those circumstances. He would be at the beck and call of any whim on his backbenches and he is a very divisive figure. Remember, nearly 2/3rds of his MPs didn't back him today.

    I think we are nailed on for a 2019 General Election. I don't even think it will be via a VONC. Boris will just go for it under a Brexit mandate. He's risky and arrogant enough. Corbyn will be delighted to take him on. That may be foolhardy.

    LibDems may come out of this very very well.

    All this may indeed come to pass.

    Sounds quite plausible to me.
    Me too. But, unlike you, I think Boris would win, quite easily.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Chukka will have to put up with the jibes for a while but he's a strong presence and is a big gain for the LibDems.

    If the rumours are also true about Phillip Lee and if Brecon and Radnor goes to recall, with a likely LibDem gain then the Cons majority even with DUP will be 1.

    I don't think there's any way Boris will try to continue under those circumstances. He would be at the beck and call of any whim on his backbenches and he is a very divisive figure. Remember, nearly 2/3rds of his MPs didn't back him today.

    I think we are nailed on for a 2019 General Election. I don't even think it will be via a VONC. Boris will just go for it under a Brexit mandate. He's risky and arrogant enough. Corbyn will be delighted to take him on. That may be foolhardy.

    LibDems may come out of this very very well.

    Looks very sound to me.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    Y0kel said:

    Persian Gulf tensions

    It seems remarkable that there is very little information on how exactly someone actually attacked the tankers today. If it is limpet mines, which is suggested, where exactly did these mines turn up?

    Its there that you can source and interdict the attacks.

    False flag?
    It does all have more than a whiff of Gulf of Tonkin...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The Chicken Boris tag is beginning to stick.

    He’s more yellow than the contents of Jo Swinsons wardrobe.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.

    He’s not Gay
    Married with a daughter
    That doesn't make him straight.

    Do you have any evidence he is not attracted to men?
    What a ridiculous post , who cares. And anyway why is the subject of his sexuality coming up in here ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Chukka will have to put up with the jibes for a while but he's a strong presence and is a big gain for the LibDems.

    If the rumours are also true about Phillip Lee and if Brecon and Radnor goes to recall, with a likely LibDem gain then the Cons majority even with DUP will be 1.

    I don't think there's any way Boris will try to continue under those circumstances. He would be at the beck and call of any whim on his backbenches and he is a very divisive figure. Remember, nearly 2/3rds of his MPs didn't back him today.

    I think we are nailed on for a 2019 General Election. I don't even think it will be via a VONC. Boris will just go for it under a Brexit mandate. He's risky and arrogant enough. Corbyn will be delighted to take him on. That may be foolhardy.

    LibDems may come out of this very very well.

    The shortest tenure for a PM is George Canning's 119 days. Boris could be there for less than that if he calls an immediate snap election.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    Chuka stands a chance of holding the seat for the Lib Dems in the right circumstances i.e. a Brexit election with Labour still ambivalent.

    While the Lib Dems were 35,000 votes behind in 2017, they were an order of magnitude closer in 2010 and the Lib Dems won Lambeth comfortably at the Euro-elections. That's not to say it'd be easy but it's certainly something to work with.

    Does he have much of a personal vote? Popular MPs who work their patch take a chunk with them.

    Plus there is the whole remain aspect.

    Problem is the Owen Jones brigade will view him as a bigger scalp than even Boris or IDS. No doubt the momentum kids will be dispatched.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited June 2019

    If I had said Rory would be 3rd fav a month ago, you would have laughed and asked me if I was on the opium.

    I don't see how he makes it past the next round. There's not many new votes going, some of whom are bound to go to the top tier and some of who were backing the hardest leaver candidate in the race, and how many switchers from other candidates are we really expecting, even if Hancock pulls out? MPs are not likely to switch en masse even if he puts in a barnstorming performance in any debate.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    It's perfectly possible that by the time Johnson is elected leader the Cons no longer govern in the House of Commons! I mean in the sense that Cons + DUP may no longer have a majority.

    I can't see any other path now except a General Election this autumn
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,718
    If Streatham votes the same way as it did in the European Parliament elections then Chuka will hold Streatham.

    European elections result for Lambeth (containing Streatham)

    LDs 33%
    Labour 22%
    Greens 21%
    Brexit Party 8%
    CUK 8%
    Tories 4%


    https://moderngov.lambeth.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=173&RPID=37314769
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Offtopic, but it’s properly kicking off in the sandpit: Iran attacking two oil tankers in the Gulf. :open_mouth:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48630374

    This after the Iranian rebels in Yemen sent a couple of rockets over the border into a Saudi airfield yesterday.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    Omnium said:

    o/t

    Iran - small scale niggly attacks on shipping... really? Why?

    I think quite highly of the Iranian people, and think quite ill of their government. Nonetheless this makes no sense.

    False Flag?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    Chukka will have to put up with the jibes for a while but he's a strong presence and is a big gain for the LibDems.

    If the rumours are also true about Phillip Lee and if Brecon and Radnor goes to recall, with a likely LibDem gain then the Cons majority even with DUP will be 1.

    I don't think there's any way Boris will try to continue under those circumstances. He would be at the beck and call of any whim on his backbenches and he is a very divisive figure. Remember, nearly 2/3rds of his MPs didn't back him today.

    I think we are nailed on for a 2019 General Election. I don't even think it will be via a VONC. Boris will just go for it under a Brexit mandate. He's risky and arrogant enough. Corbyn will be delighted to take him on. That may be foolhardy.

    LibDems may come out of this very very well.

    The shortest tenure for a PM is George Canning's 119 days. Boris could be there for less than that if he calls an immediate snap election.
    Or he might never get there. He cannot command a majority imho if he continues on the No Deal at all costs route and so the Queen cannot ask him to the Palace.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926

    TGOHF said:

    Is Vince going back to Labour ?
    Sir Vince is a true Thatcherite, he did what Thatcher didn't have the balls to do, privatise the Royal Mail.
    When are you defecting to the LibDems, TSE?
    Never.
    Said with Thatcherian indignation? ;)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Is Chukka the first of three or four more?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Newsnight says Hancock is pulling out.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Chukka will have to put up with the jibes for a while but he's a strong presence and is a big gain for the LibDems.

    If the rumours are also true about Phillip Lee and if Brecon and Radnor goes to recall, with a likely LibDem gain then the Cons majority even with DUP will be 1.

    I don't think there's any way Boris will try to continue under those circumstances. He would be at the beck and call of any whim on his backbenches and he is a very divisive figure. Remember, nearly 2/3rds of his MPs didn't back him today.

    I think we are nailed on for a 2019 General Election. I don't even think it will be via a VONC. Boris will just go for it under a Brexit mandate. He's risky and arrogant enough. Corbyn will be delighted to take him on. That may be foolhardy.

    LibDems may come out of this very very well.

    The shortest tenure for a PM is George Canning's 119 days. Boris could be there for less than that if he calls an immediate snap election.
    He's a good chance of getting past that if he delays the call until after a 'negotiation' period and conference season. But it is a potential outcome for him.

    Boris Johnson, last Tory PM for a decade or more* and shortest serving PM in over a hundred years?

    *that would not actually be that humiliating - the Tories have been in power 9 years, that's not a bad run, and followed by being out for a decade is not that unusual.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    HYUFD said:

    If Streatham votes the same way as it did in the European Parliament elections then Chuka will hold Streatham.

    European elections result for Lambeth (containing Streatham)

    LDs 33%
    Labour 22%
    Greens 21%
    Brexit Party 8%
    CUK 8%
    Tories 4%


    https://moderngov.lambeth.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=173&RPID=37314769

    :lol: Jezza deserves no less. The fence sitter in chief.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,718

    Chukka will have to put up with the jibes for a while but he's a strong presence and is a big gain for the LibDems.

    If the rumours are also true about Phillip Lee and if Brecon and Radnor goes to recall, with a likely LibDem gain then the Cons majority even with DUP will be 1.

    I don't think there's any way Boris will try to continue under those circumstances. He would be at the beck and call of any whim on his backbenches and he is a very divisive figure. Remember, nearly 2/3rds of his MPs didn't back him today.

    I think we are nailed on for a 2019 General Election. I don't even think it will be via a VONC. Boris will just go for it under a Brexit mandate. He's risky and arrogant enough. Corbyn will be delighted to take him on. That may be foolhardy.

    LibDems may come out of this very very well.

    Agree on Chukka. Excellent news for LDs. Although he may prove a handful for Jo Swinson.

    Not convinced about Boris cutting and running unless he absolutely has to.
    Chukka clearly wants to be the UK Macron and lead a liberal, centrist party into power as PM. The LDs now offer him the best chance to do so.

    Assuming Boris calls a general election within a year YouGov had a Boris led Tories on 29% with the LDs and Labour tied on 22% each, that would be an ideal result for Chuka, Swinson or Davey get neck and neck with Labour but not enough to win power and he can then take over for the final push
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    It's perfectly possible that by the time Johnson is elected leader the Cons no longer govern in the House of Commons! I mean in the sense that Cons + DUP may no longer have a majority.

    I can't see any other path now except a General Election this autumn

    Yep.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,718
    Newsnight reports Matt Hancock will drop out tomorrow so that could provide a boost for Hunt or Javid as most of his backers will go to them
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Why the hold up with other likely defectors? How long does it take to see if the LDs will push aside any local candidates to allow you to fight the seat in their colours?
  • Hancock and Javid teaming up could be interesting and challenge Hunt for 2nd place.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    TGOHF said:

    Newsnight says Hancock is pulling out.

    That moron was never really in...
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TGOHF said:

    The Chicken Boris tag is beginning to stick.

    He’s more yellow than the contents of Jo Swinsons wardrobe.

    And being on telly is meant to be his strongest suit. Perhaps this is on Gavin's advice (but who wants to be governed by someone who takes advice from Gavin?)
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    From what I understand, every skeleton in Boris's cupboard has now done a modest dance around the bedroom. His womanising is priced in. Likewise his sometimes unreliable relationship with the truth.

    WYSIWYG. Boris is a lying, two faced, adulterous bastard with a ruthless streak.

    He is ALSO a genuinely funny. charming, optimistic politician, with - somehow - the common touch.

    Right now I think people are desperate for any ray of sunshine. If Boris is it? What the hell. Take it.

    He might well be a disaster. Indeed, probably. But I can see why he will appeal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    HYUFD said:

    Newsnight reports Matt Hancock will drop out tomorrow so that could provide a boost for Hunt or Javid as most of his backers will go to them

    He did well to get 20, frankly.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Just to be clear that I am well aware of the rules on electoral registration and not subverting the democratic process, fpt -


    Not that it’s anyone’s business, but my husband lives in Cumbria and votes there. I mostly live in London and vote here. I am not a second home owner. I own one property only: my home. When I finally move permanently to Cumbria, luck and builders permitting, I will vote there.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,288

    TGOHF said:

    Is Vince going back to Labour ?
    Sir Vince is a true Thatcherite, he did what Thatcher didn't have the balls to do, privatise the Royal Mail.
    When are you defecting to the LibDems, TSE?
    Never.
    Said with Thatcherian indignation? ;)
    The lad is not for turning.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,288
    kle4 said:

    Why the hold up with other likely defectors? How long does it take to see if the LDs will push aside any local candidates to allow you to fight the seat in their colours?


    Something to be gained in a drip feed of defections? Takes a bit of news focus away from the Tories
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    TGOHF said:

    The Chicken Boris tag is beginning to stick.

    He’s more yellow than the contents of Jo Swinsons wardrobe.

    He'll be fine. If he doesn't participate he can just moan about the mainstream media, party members on left and right seem to eat that crap up, and if he does participate no one will remember he seemed reluctant about it, no one cared that Corbyn only agreed to participate in the GE debates very late.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Omnium said:

    o/t

    Iran - small scale niggly attacks on shipping... really? Why?

    I think quite highly of the Iranian people, and think quite ill of their government. Nonetheless this makes no sense.

    Actually it does. Its called sub threshold actions and its a long held strategy by many countries such as Iran. You can cause instability, make it expensive in disruption and economics for everyone else in low level actions but not elicit a big offensive response.

    Whilst I raised this emerging situation on here a bit back before the first shipping attacks and I wouldn't yet absolutely rule out someone being clever in provocation, the concept of walks like duck, quacks like a duck stands as sound.

    The interdiction of such attacks however, may not need aircraft carriers or destroyers, it may just need some blokes mooching around the docks.
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:
    I'm not sure why Philip Lee actually stood for the Conservatives in 2017, if Brexit was intolerable to him.


    If Philip Lee joins the Lib Dems he'll need to find a more winnable seat. He wouldn't stand a chance in Bracknell. It's not like they aren't keen on Brexit down there.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2019
    Re switching parties...shouldn't there be some rule like in footy where you can't play for more than two teams in one season?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    All of Question Time is now discussing Boris.

    Apparently the Welsh hate Boris so much they will declare UDI.

    It's so flailingly ludicrous.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    Why the hold up with other likely defectors? How long does it take to see if the LDs will push aside any local candidates to allow you to fight the seat in their colours?


    Something to be gained in a drip feed of defections? Takes a bit of news focus away from the Tories
    Maybe, they don't get in the news much outside EU election surges I guess, although I doubt the focus on the Tories is doing them much favours at the moment.

    Though Labour probably are happier if the focus is on the Tories than the LDs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,718
    dixiedean said:

    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Not a fashionable thought: but I quite like Chukka. He is smart, able, thoughtful, and - let's face it, gay and black - so he represents an unusual demographic, and is a good role model in that way.

    I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.

    He’s not Gay
    Married with a daughter
    For the purposes of PB's lawyers, if he isn't gay or bi, then I sincerely apologise to him and I am happy to retract my prior remarks, which were wholly wrong and historically mis-informed, etc etc etc etc etc

    Easy mistake to make. After all it can't be said he doesn't play for several teams.
    If so he might mirror Macron in other ways, the French President is also rumoured to play both sides
This discussion has been closed.