Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)
Interesting, I missed the show last night.
I think if Boris gets an immediate boost in the opinion polls he'll probably go for a snap election. But it would have to be a very big boost given the Tories are currently on 17%.
I cant see The Brexit Party competing with Boris led Conservatives committed to an Oct 31 departure, and they are 26% of the latest opinion poll.
It would certainly be a dilemma for Farage. I think lots of his supporters would prefer in a snap election to back Boris. So if the Brexit Party stands it risks denying Boris the majority he needs. At the same time, can Farage trust Boris? (a) to achieve a Hard Brexit majority and (b) to carry out No Deal.
Lots of lovely drama still to come.
The Cons should offer Farage and a couple of other BXP's a free run in the Brexitiest of seats.
It’s what I expect him to do. I’ve bet on a second referendum.
So to answer your question: no I don't think Boris will rat (or if he does it won't be seen as such)...
What if he doesn't? What if he goes the sane route? What's the party going to do? Start sending letters to the 22?
Good question, but I do not have an answer for you I'm afraid.
I wish I could find that tweet which said: "can we just skip to the bit where the new leader realises they face exactly the same challenge as May."
Charisma helps. A lot of people say UKIP and BXP are just the same, but the former were disappearing without trace while the latter are ahead in the polls... the only reason is Farage
Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)
Interesting, I missed the show last night.
I think if Boris gets an immediate boost in the opinion polls he'll probably go for a snap election. But it would have to be a very big boost given the Tories are currently on 17%.
I cant see The Brexit Party competing with Boris led Conservatives committed to an Oct 31 departure, and they are 26% of the latest opinion poll.
It would certainly be a dilemma for Farage. I think lots of his supporters would prefer in a snap election to back Boris. So if the Brexit Party stands it risks denying Boris the majority he needs. At the same time, can Farage trust Boris? (a) to achieve a Hard Brexit majority and (b) to carry out No Deal.
Lots of lovely drama still to come.
The Cons should offer Farage and a couple of other BXP's a free run in the Brexitiest of seats.
...costing them votes and seats across the land, for supping with the devil.
Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)
Interesting, I missed the show last night.
I think if Boris gets an immediate boost in the opinion polls he'll probably go for a snap election. But it would have to be a very big boost given the Tories are currently on 17%.
I cant see The Brexit Party competing with Boris led Conservatives committed to an Oct 31 departure, and they are 26% of the latest opinion poll.
It would certainly be a dilemma for Farage. I think lots of his supporters would prefer in a snap election to back Boris. So if the Brexit Party stands it risks denying Boris the majority he needs. At the same time, can Farage trust Boris? (a) to achieve a Hard Brexit majority and (b) to carry out No Deal.
Lots of lovely drama still to come.
The Cons should offer Farage and a couple of other BXP's a free run in the Brexitiest of seats.
...costing them votes and seats across the land, for supping with the devil.
People voting for a No Deal threatening Boris are hardly likely to not do so for offering Farage a favour
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Not clear what the Conservative USP is now, but what Johnson brings is a slick package of wishful thinking for those in denial. People who realise Farage is an entirely negative force but don't want to face reality either. Johnson makes them feel better about themselves.
It's a trick Berlusconi pulled off for more than a decade before the decline in Italy became too obvious and people turned to real fascists, still without accepting their responsibility for Italy's decline. As the UK heads towards the broken politics and economic stagnation of Italy, Johnson is the politician for our times.
Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)
Interesting, I missed the show last night.
I think if Boris gets an immediate boost in the opinion polls he'll probably go for a snap election. But it would have to be a very big boost given the Tories are currently on 17%.
I cant see The Brexit Party competing with Boris led Conservatives committed to an Oct 31 departure, and they are 26% of the latest opinion poll.
It would certainly be a dilemma for Farage. I think lots of his supporters would prefer in a snap election to back Boris. So if the Brexit Party stands it risks denying Boris the majority he needs. At the same time, can Farage trust Boris? (a) to achieve a Hard Brexit majority and (b) to carry out No Deal.
Lots of lovely drama still to come.
The Cons should offer Farage and a couple of other BXP's a free run in the Brexitiest of seats.
Farage falls out with his own party, the chance of him successfully negotiating a coupon election are nil. The far right are as full of splitters as the far left.
If the Conservatives in their current form were to disappear, would they be missed?
That could be the plot of a film. Theresa May walks to her local Conservative Association on a Saturday morning but there's no-one there and no-one has heard of this 'Conservative Party'. She tries to jog people's memory by repeating her most famous lines but people think she's just a crazy woman. She embarks on nationwide hunt to prove that she is not mad, and her memories are not hallucinations.
In the final scene she discovers that the statue of Margaret Thatcher was melted down as part of a programme to erase any memory of our membership of the EU. She falls to her knees and screams, "God damn you all to hell!"
Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)
Interesting, I missed the show last night.
I think if Boris gets an immediate boost in the opinion polls he'll probably go for a snap election. But it would have to be a very big boost given the Tories are currently on 17%.
I cant see The Brexit Party competing with Boris led Conservatives committed to an Oct 31 departure, and they are 26% of the latest opinion poll.
It would certainly be a dilemma for Farage. I think lots of his supporters would prefer in a snap election to back Boris. So if the Brexit Party stands it risks denying Boris the majority he needs. At the same time, can Farage trust Boris? (a) to achieve a Hard Brexit majority and (b) to carry out No Deal.
Lots of lovely drama still to come.
The Cons should offer Farage and a couple of other BXP's a free run in the Brexitiest of seats.
...costing them votes and seats across the land, for supping with the devil.
People voting for a No Deal threatening Boris are hardly likely to not do so for offering Farage a favour
That may be many of the remaining Tory voters but it is not all of them. There are a few sensible Tories left (cf. the lead), and a pact to allow Farage into Parliament will send another slice over to the LibDems.
If the Conservatives in their current form were to disappear, would they be missed?
That could be the plot of a film. Theresa May walks to her local Conservative Association on a Saturday morning but there's no-one there and no-one has heard of this 'Conservative Party'. She tries to jog people's memory by repeating her most famous lines but people think she's just a crazy woman. She embarks on nationwide hunt to prove that she is not mad, and her memories are not hallucinations.
In the final scene she discovers that the statue of Margaret Thatcher was melted down as part of a programme to erase any memory of our membership of the EU. She falls to her knees and screams, "God damn you all to hell!"
What worries me most about Mr Johnson (taking the Gove line on this) is that he's so unpredictable. I have no idea if he'd go for a GE to ensure No Deal, if he'll perform a superficial renegotiation and present it as a completely new deal, or offer a referendum. I wouldn't put it past him to call a GE, campaign for No Deal to keep the Brexit Party out, and then change his mind and push through May's deal again.
Johnson isn't the Ace of Spades, but he is definitely the Joker. Are Jokers wild in this case? Or are they illegal plays that show he's been cheating? Has he been subtly marking the cards so he knows what's coming up on the river? I imagine the only one who knows is BoZo himself.
He can act as a magnet for the hopes of all sides for now, but the increased momentum will make any collision with reality much more forceful. How long can he really keep it up for once he's PM?
I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.
I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick
If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.
Hear his ‘almost’ slip when he was pressed on the October leaving date if we nearly had a deal by then; he appears to start to say something like “let’s cross that bridge”, before remembering he isn’t supposed to open any possibility of delay, and starts the sentence again with his original mantra.
Also, Boris would be best advised to avoid any mention of bridges, having spaffed £50m into the Thames on the last one without anything to show for it.
I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.
I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick
If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.
Hear his ‘almost’ slip when he was pressed on the October leaving date if we nearly had a deal by then; he appears to start to say something like “let’s cross that bridge”, before remembering he isn’t supposed to open any possibility of delay, and starts the sentence again with his original mantra.
Also, Boris would be best advised to avoid any mention of bridges, having spaffed £50m into the Thames on the last one without anything to show for it.
We can leave the EU a day early to make up for it.
If the Conservatives in their current form were to disappear, would they be missed?
That could be the plot of a film. Theresa May walks to her local Conservative Association on a Saturday morning but there's no-one there and no-one has heard of this 'Conservative Party'. She tries to jog people's memory by repeating her most famous lines but people think she's just a crazy woman. She embarks on nationwide hunt to prove that she is not mad, and her memories are not hallucinations.
In the final scene she discovers that the statue of Margaret Thatcher was melted down as part of a programme to erase any memory of our membership of the EU. She falls to her knees and screams, "God damn you all to hell!"
Desperately Seeking Prudence.
It was better with monkeys.
"Beware the beast Man, for he is the Devil's pawn. Alone among God's primates, he kills for sport or lust or greed. Yea, he will murder his brother to possess his brother's land. Let him not breed in great numbers, for he will make a desert of his home and yours. Shun him; drive him back into his jungle lair, for he is the harbinger of death."
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Reform that you may preserve
Acting as a sea anchor on change so that it happens gradually and with deliberation rather than at a rate that unsettles people
Great piece Richard. But surely Boris has faced up to reality and chosen. It doesn't matter that no deal is batshit crazy. It doesn't matter that so many of the people insistently demanding it will be made very much worse off and blame the people who made what they want happen.
What matters is that Tory voters will no longer be Tory voters unless it happens, and that means it has to happen. What Boris has stated explicitly and clearly is that we will leave on Halloween come what may. That almost certainly means no deal and everyone knows it. He maintains at least the semblance of protest - "I'll try and negotiate" but nobody believes it worth the effort.
The issue for the Tories is simple. Give the people what they want, and spin furiously the bad consequences (it's the EU/Corbyn to blame) and survive to fight future elections. Or become irrelevant and of the past as Farage supplants them.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Small Government.
Therefore they should adopt a BINO approach to Brexit to avoid expanding the scope of government?
There's a reduction in government if we crash out.
I was allowed a short paragraph, and I used two words.
I don't see why everyone is saying that nothing has changed. We've just had the EU elections and there's a completely new EU parliament.
Since the EU is democratic institution then this would naturally lead to a completely new direction for the Brexit negotiations and the EU in general.
So it makes perfect sense to try and reopen negotiations.
Firstly Welcome.
The Conservatives are about to change the captain of the Titanic just as the good ship SS BREXIT has sighted the iceberg with no time to change course.
In the dark watches the long night, who do Corbyn and Farage in their heart of hearts want to win the Tory leadership? Who best assists their chances, aims and objectives? Answers on a postcard. Whatever are the true answers would tell us quite a lot.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Not clear what the Conservative USP is now, but what Johnson brings is a slick package of wishful thinking for those in denial. People who realise Farage is an entirely negative force but don't want to face reality either. Johnson makes them feel better about themselves.
It's a trick Berlusconi pulled off for more than a decade before the decline in Italy became too obvious and people turned to real fascists, still without accepting their responsibility for Italy's decline. As the UK heads towards the broken politics and economic stagnation of Italy, Johnson is the politician for our times.
Brexit will fail. It essentially has already. Will those that voted Leave admit they made a mistake and embrace the European Union? Like Heck. But there is a market for those that don't want to be eaten up by the Farage poison of betrayal. As they adapt to the new reality of the UK as a second class satellite of the EU and national stasis they will look for moral superiority in other ways. That's a market Johnson can address.
Interesting piece on Ch4 News about the two girls who were beaten up on the train in a homophobic attack. I didn't realise till the interview that Boris is a homophobe. Odd then that the media are expending so much energy on his experimentation with coke. Surely now we're on the way to our second Bullingdon Boy Prime Ministers it's not as though we're getting a pig in a poke.
"In “Boris: The Adventures of Boris Johnson,” Andrew Gimson, a former colleague of Johnson’s, describes his ability—which is almost unique among contemporary British politicians—to cheer people up. “While many politicians have the urge to perfect society, Boris believes in the imperfectability of mankind, and especially of himself,” Gimson writes. (The biography was published in 2006 and updated in 2016.) “He does not seek to attain impossibly high standards, nor does he impose them on others.”"
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Reform that you may preserve
Acting as a sea anchor on change so that it happens gradually and with deliberation rather than at a rate that unsettles people
Mrs May certainly gave it her best shot. Not so sure about this new fellow, though.
In the dark watches the long night, who do Corbyn and Farage in their heart of hearts want to win the Tory leadership? Who best assists their chances, aims and objectives? Answers on a postcard. Whatever are the true answers would tell us quite a lot.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Interesting piece on Ch4 News about the two girls who were beaten up on the train in a homophobic attack. I didn't realise till the interview that Boris is a homophobe. Odd then that the media are expending so much energy on his experimentation with coke. Surely now we're on the way to our second Bullingdon Boy Prime Ministers it's not as though we're getting a pig in a poke.
What I found most interesting was the lack of talk of the alleged attackers - 15-18 year olds, one of whom was speaking Spanish. The Guardiniastas and Remainers must have been drooling over their expected Gammon feast. How disappointing.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Not clear what the Conservative USP is now, but what Johnson brings is a slick package of wishful thinking for those in denial. People who realise Farage is an entirely negative force but don't want to face reality either. Johnson makes them feel better about themselves.
It's a trick Berlusconi pulled off for more than a decade before the decline in Italy became too obvious and people turned to real fascists, still without accepting their responsibility for Italy's decline. As the UK heads towards the broken politics and economic stagnation of Italy, Johnson is the politician for our times.
Brexit will fail. It essentially has already. Will those that voted Leave admit they made a mistake and embrace the European Union? Like Heck. But there is a market for those that don't want to be eaten up by the Farage poison of betrayal. As they adapt to the new reality of the UK as a second class satellite of the EU and national stasis they will look for moral superiority in other ways. That's a market Johnson can address.
Wow, you're just eaten up by this aren't you? UK a 'second class satellite' of the EU. If you mean the UK being smaller and containing less people, yep. Problem? Why are you people so obsessed by ridiculous notions of 'bigness' being a virtue in and of itself? What does it do for the individual, except make power more remote from them and unaccountable to them?
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Not clear what the Conservative USP is now, but what Johnson brings is a slick package of wishful thinking for those in denial. People who realise Farage is an entirely negative force but don't want to face reality either. Johnson makes them feel better about themselves.
It's a trick Berlusconi pulled off for more than a decade before the decline in Italy became too obvious and people turned to real fascists, still without accepting their responsibility for Italy's decline. As the UK heads towards the broken politics and economic stagnation of Italy, Johnson is the politician for our times.
Brexit will fail. It essentially has already. Will those that voted Leave admit they made a mistake and embrace the European Union? Like Heck. But there is a market for those that don't want to be eaten up by the Farage poison of betrayal. As they adapt to the new reality of the UK as a second class satellite of the EU and national stasis they will look for moral superiority in other ways. That's a market Johnson can address.
What reason do people on the centre-right have to embrace the European Union?
I know you love the EU, but sell it to me. Tell me why I should love it.
Interesting piece on Ch4 News about the two girls who were beaten up on the train in a homophobic attack. I didn't realise till the interview that Boris is a homophobe. Odd then that the media are expending so much energy on his experimentation with coke. Surely now we're on the way to our second Bullingdon Boy Prime Ministers it's not as though we're getting a pig in a poke.
"In “Boris: The Adventures of Boris Johnson,” Andrew Gimson, a former colleague of Johnson’s, describes his ability—which is almost unique among contemporary British politicians—to cheer people up. “While many politicians have the urge to perfect society, Boris believes in the imperfectability of mankind, and especially of himself,” Gimson writes. (The biography was published in 2006 and updated in 2016.) “He does not seek to attain impossibly high standards, nor does he impose them on others.”"
”When Johnson returned to London, he confessed to an editorial writer at the Telegraph that he had no political opinions. “You must have some,” the colleague reassured him. “Well, I’m against Europe and against capital punishment,” Johnson said. “I’m sure you’ll make something out of that,” came the reply.”
I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.
I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick
If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.
Nah, they have made their minds up. If he gets to last two it is over.
How does he fail to get to the last two ? That's even more of a cert part than the members vote now. He is over the 110 threshold !
He should be 1.05 in the betting now. He's PM in waiting.
He's 1.3 for next PM and 1.2 for next Tory Leader on Betfair. Both look like close to free money.
It’s about right. He’s very able to fall flat on his face, but is clear favourite for now.
The ultra shortness of Rory Stewart is a mystery. He has no prospect of winning.
He's the only one making ground. If the race had been over a few months with conference speeches etc then he'd have a real chance.
Also the 'not Boris' vote is unknown amongst MPs. If he gains almost nothing from the eliminated candidates then it'll be a big worry for him.
In my view the market as it stands is priced almost perfectly. (And its very annoying)
Making ground?
He barely scraped past the cut-off for the first post, avoiding elimination by 2 MPs. He got the least of all remaining MPs. He needs to find 14 more to avoid automatic elimination and I'm not seeing him making that. He needs about 90 more to make the final 2 . . . where is that coming from? All this before the members vote.
If that is making ground then I wonder what struggling looks like.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Not clear what the Conservative USP is now, but what Johnson brings is a slick package of wishful thinking for those in denial. People who realise Farage is an entirely negative force but don't want to face reality either. Johnson makes them feel better about themselves.
It's a trick Berlusconi pulled off for more than a decade before the decline in Italy became too obvious and people turned to real fascists, still without accepting their responsibility for Italy's decline. As the UK heads towards the broken politics and economic stagnation of Italy, Johnson is the politician for our times.
Brexit will fail. It essentially has already. Will those that voted Leave admit they made a mistake and embrace the European Union? Like Heck. But there is a market for those that don't want to be eaten up by the Farage poison of betrayal. As they adapt to the new reality of the UK as a second class satellite of the EU and national stasis they will look for moral superiority in other ways. That's a market Johnson can address.
What reason do people on the centre-right have to embrace the European Union?
I know you love the EU, but sell it to me. Tell me why I should love it.
For much the same reason that the Conservative party has been in favour of membership for the last half century, excepting the last 3.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Not clear what the Conservative USP is now, but what Johnson brings is a slick package of wishful thinking for those in denial. People who realise Farage is an entirely negative force but don't want to face reality either. Johnson makes them feel better about themselves.
It's a trick Berlusconi pulled off for more than a decade before the decline in Italy became too obvious and people turned to real fascists, still without accepting their responsibility for Italy's decline. As the UK heads towards the broken politics and economic stagnation of Italy, Johnson is the politician for our times.
Brexit will fail. It essentially has already. Will those that voted Leave admit they made a mistake and embrace the European Union? Like Heck. But there is a market for those that don't want to be eaten up by the Farage poison of betrayal. As they adapt to the new reality of the UK as a second class satellite of the EU and national stasis they will look for moral superiority in other ways. That's a market Johnson can address.
What reason do people on the centre-right have to embrace the European Union?
I know you love the EU, but sell it to me. Tell me why I should love it.
For much the same reason that the Conservative party has been in favour of membership for the last half century, excepting the last 3.
Fear of the Soviet Union, and fear of our trade unions were why Conservatives supported joining in 1972. Neither is relevant now.
We made a Faustian pact, which came back to haunt us.
I don't see why everyone is saying that nothing has changed. We've just had the EU elections and there's a completely new EU parliament.
Since the EU is democratic institution then this would naturally lead to a completely new direction for the Brexit negotiations and the EU in general.
So it makes perfect sense to try and reopen negotiations.
Welcome.
The EU essentially has three preconditions to negotiations. One, to do with citizen rights is uncontroversial to most people. The second is only money. The third the is the blocker. The Irish "backstop" - actually the requirement that Northern Ireland must not diverge from a Republic of Ireland in the EU.
The EU won't budge from these conditions. Everything else is up for negotiation. But it was anyway, with "May's Deal"
In the dark watches the long night, who do Corbyn and Farage in their heart of hearts want to win the Tory leadership? Who best assists their chances, aims and objectives? Answers on a postcard. Whatever are the true answers would tell us quite a lot.
I suspect Corbyn's answer would depend on if the GE is before or after Brexit. If after then I could imagine Corbyn wanting Raab, to ensure that as hard a Brexit as possible occurs, with the Tories being blamed for the chaos after a No Deal Brexit. If before Brexit then it would probably be Hunt, to ensure that Farage maximises the split in the Tory/Brexit vote.
As for Farage, I think he'd like a softer Brexit leader, so that he can continue his claims of betrayal. So probably Hunt, Javid or Gove. I expect Farage probably most fears Johnson or Raab - the former because he's unpredictable and could get away with promising anything, the latter because he really would go for a No Deal Brexit.
The missing question of course is who would Cable prefer? I suspect the LDs would want a hard Brexit leader so they can wreak havoc in the Conservative Home Counties and similar areas. Overall then it might be something like:
Johnson: +ve for Con, -ve for Brexit Raab post-Brexit GE: +ve for Labour/LD, -ve for Con Raab pre-Brexit GE: +ve for Con, -ve for Brexit Gove/Hunt/Javid: +ve for Brexit Stewart: +ve for Brexit, -ve for LD/Lab
When broken down you can see why the Conservatives look likely to pick Johnson
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Reform that you may preserve
Acting as a sea anchor on change so that it happens gradually and with deliberation rather than at a rate that unsettles people
I think it’s fair to say that unsettled people are very numerous lately. Dave wasn’t much of a Conservative sea anchor, was he?
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Not clear what the Conservative USP is now, but what Johnson brings is a slick package of wishful thinking for those in denial. People who realise Farage is an entirely negative force but don't want to face reality either. Johnson makes them feel better about themselves.
It's a trick Berlusconi pulled off for more than a decade before the decline in Italy became too obvious and people turned to real fascists, still without accepting their responsibility for Italy's decline. As the UK heads towards the broken politics and economic stagnation of Italy, Johnson is the politician for our times.
Brexit will fail. It essentially has already. Will those that voted Leave admit they made a mistake and embrace the European Union? Like Heck. But there is a market for those that don't want to be eaten up by the Farage poison of betrayal. As they adapt to the new reality of the UK as a second class satellite of the EU and national stasis they will look for moral superiority in other ways. That's a market Johnson can address.
What reason do people on the centre-right have to embrace the European Union?
I know you love the EU, but sell it to me. Tell me why I should love it.
For much the same reason that the Conservative party has been in favour of membership for the last half century, excepting the last 3.
Fear of the Soviet Union, and fear of our trade unions were why Conservatives supported joining in 1972. Neither is relevant now.
We made a Faustian pact, which came back to haunt us.
On a related note it is said that the single market was Britain's great contribution to the EU.
It would be interesting to know what the trade balance between Britain and the EU has been since the single market was created.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Not clear what the Conservative USP is now, but what Johnson brings is a slick package of wishful thinking for those in denial. People who realise Farage is an entirely negative force but don't want to face reality either. Johnson makes them feel better about themselves.
It's a trick Berlusconi pulled off for more than a decade before the decline in Italy became too obvious and people turned to real fascists, still without accepting their responsibility for Italy's decline. As the UK heads towards the broken politics and economic stagnation of Italy, Johnson is the politician for our times.
Brexit will fail. It essentially has already. Will those that voted Leave admit they made a mistake and embrace the European Union? Like Heck. But there is a market for those that don't want to be eaten up by the Farage poison of betrayal. As they adapt to the new reality of the UK as a second class satellite of the EU and national stasis they will look for moral superiority in other ways. That's a market Johnson can address.
What reason do people on the centre-right have to embrace the European Union?
I know you love the EU, but sell it to me. Tell me why I should love it.
I'm not selling the EU to anyone. I am predicting people will accept a second class satellite status rather than go back on their decision. If you are not prepared to change the reality, you have to accept it at some level.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Not clear what the Conservative USP is now, but what Johnson brings is a slick package of wishful thinking for those in denial. People who realise Farage is an entirely negative force but don't want to face reality either. Johnson makes them feel better about themselves.
It's a trick Berlusconi pulled off for more than a decade before the decline in Italy became too obvious and people turned to real fascists, still without accepting their responsibility for Italy's decline. As the UK heads towards the broken politics and economic stagnation of Italy, Johnson is the politician for our times.
Brexit will fail. It essentially has already. Will those that voted Leave admit they made a mistake and embrace the European Union? Like Heck. But there is a market for those that don't want to be eaten up by the Farage poison of betrayal. As they adapt to the new reality of the UK as a second class satellite of the EU and national stasis they will look for moral superiority in other ways. That's a market Johnson can address.
What reason do people on the centre-right have to embrace the European Union?
I know you love the EU, but sell it to me. Tell me why I should love it.
For much the same reason that the Conservative party has been in favour of membership for the last half century, excepting the last 3.
Fear of the Soviet Union, and fear of our trade unions were why Conservatives supported joining in 1972. Neither is relevant now.
We made a Faustian pact, which came back to haunt us.
On a related note it is said that the single market was Britain's great contribution to the EU.
It would be interesting to know what the trade balance between Britain and the EU has been since the single market was created.
It was certainly our greatest contribution to the prosperity of countries other than our own.
I don't see why everyone is saying that nothing has changed. We've just had the EU elections and there's a completely new EU parliament.
Since the EU is democratic institution then this would naturally lead to a completely new direction for the Brexit negotiations and the EU in general.
So it makes perfect sense to try and reopen negotiations.
Welcome.
The EU essentially has three preconditions to negotiations. One, to do with citizen rights is uncontroversial to most people. The second is only money. The third the is the blocker. The Irish "backstop" - actually the requirement that Northern Ireland must not diverge from a Republic of Ireland in the EU.
The EU won't budge from these conditions. Everything else is up for negotiation. But it was anyway, with "May's Deal"
And if their conditions cannot be net then they are not negotiating in good faith
I don't see why everyone is saying that nothing has changed. We've just had the EU elections and there's a completely new EU parliament.
Since the EU is democratic institution then this would naturally lead to a completely new direction for the Brexit negotiations and the EU in general.
So it makes perfect sense to try and reopen negotiations.
Re-opening negotiations means an extension is needed. Even signing off May's deal requires quite a bit of legislative acivity in Westminster and Brussels.
So anyone promising re-opened negotiations really means an extension.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Reform that you may preserve
Acting as a sea anchor on change so that it happens gradually and with deliberation rather than at a rate that unsettles people
I think it’s fair to say that unsettled people are very numerous lately. Dave wasn’t much of a Conservative sea anchor, was he?
Yes - Blair destroyed Major’s vision of “a country at peace with itself”.
Cameron was lazy and complacent. He would have done great in Macmillan’s cabinet but wasn’t suitable for today
Interesting piece on Ch4 News about the two girls who were beaten up on the train in a homophobic attack. I didn't realise till the interview that Boris is a homophobe. Odd then that the media are expending so much energy on his experimentation with coke. Surely now we're on the way to our second Bullingdon Boy Prime Ministers it's not as though we're getting a pig in a poke.
What I found most interesting was the lack of talk of the alleged attackers - 15-18 year olds, one of whom was speaking Spanish. The Guardiniastas and Remainers must have been drooling over their expected Gammon feast. How disappointing.
There was some scant detail on the attackers but interesting that two such high profile girls (now) should say that Boris is a homophobe who should never be PM. You know and I know that Boris is an old fashioned public school reactionary where using 'bumboys' and 'Piccanninis' is par for the course but I wonder whether his new younger constituency who have never heard of Eton and loathe that sort of language are ready for him?
Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)
Interesting, I missed the show last night.
I think if Boris gets an immediate boost in the opinion polls he'll probably go for a snap election. But it would have to be a very big boost given the Tories are currently on 17%.
I cant see The Brexit Party competing with Boris led Conservatives committed to an Oct 31 departure, and they are 26% of the latest opinion poll.
It would certainly be a dilemma for Farage. I think lots of his supporters would prefer in a snap election to back Boris. So if the Brexit Party stands it risks denying Boris the majority he needs. At the same time, can Farage trust Boris? (a) to achieve a Hard Brexit majority and (b) to carry out No Deal.
Lots of lovely drama still to come.
This is the great unknown, would Farage do a deal with Boris, and vice versa ? They would be fools not to - I can't see Brexit getting over 100 seats ANY other way whatever the polls would say.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Not clear what the Conservative USP is now, but what Johnson brings is a slick package of wishful thinking for those in denial. People who realise Farage is an entirely negative force but don't want to face reality either. Johnson makes them feel better about themselves.
It's a trick Berlusconi pulled off for more than a decade before the decline in Italy became too obvious and people turned to real fascists, still without accepting their responsibility for Italy's decline. As the UK heads towards the broken politics and economic stagnation of Italy, Johnson is the politician for our times.
Brexit will fail. It essentially has already. Will those that voted Leave admit they made a mistake and embrace the European Union? Like Heck. But there is a market for those that don't want to be eaten up by the Farage poison of betrayal. As they adapt to the new reality of the UK as a second class satellite of the EU and national stasis they will look for moral superiority in other ways. That's a market Johnson can address.
Wow, you're just eaten up by this aren't you? UK a 'second class satellite' of the EU. If you mean the UK being smaller and containing less people, yep. Problem? Why are you people so obsessed by ridiculous notions of 'bigness' being a virtue in and of itself? What does it do for the individual, except make power more remote from them and unaccountable to them?
Not at all. My argument since the referendum is that if people voted Leave because they wanted to take control and because they don't like the EU and want it out of their lives, they will be disappointed to find the UK less in control than before and the EU far more of a factor in their lives than it was before. I don't presume to say their motivation was stupid, bit simply that Brexit will fail on their terms, regardless of what it does on mine.
Brexit will fail. It essentially has already. Will those that voted Leave admit they made a mistake and embrace the European Union? Like Heck. But there is a market for those that don't want to be eaten up by the Farage poison of betrayal. As they adapt to the new reality of the UK as a second class satellite of the EU and national stasis they will look for moral superiority in other ways. That's a market Johnson can address.
What reason do people on the centre-right have to embrace the European Union?
I know you love the EU, but sell it to me. Tell me why I should love it.
Being in the EU decisively increases the power of the citizen versus the state by guaranteeing that your economic freedoms cannot be curtailed at the national level.
Interesting piece on Ch4 News about the two girls who were beaten up on the train in a homophobic attack. I didn't realise till the interview that Boris is a homophobe. Odd then that the media are expending so much energy on his experimentation with coke. Surely now we're on the way to our second Bullingdon Boy Prime Ministers it's not as though we're getting a pig in a poke.
What I found most interesting was the lack of talk of the alleged attackers - 15-18 year olds, one of whom was speaking Spanish. The Guardiniastas and Remainers must have been drooling over their expected Gammon feast. How disappointing.
There was some scant detail on the attackers but interesting that two such high profile girls (now) should say that Boris is a homophobe who should never be PM. You know and I know that Boris is an old fashioned public school reactionary where using 'bumboys' and 'Piccanninis' is par for the course but I wonder whether his new younger constituency who have never heard of Eton and loathe that sort of language are ready for him?
I think the younger Tommy Robinson-ites will lap it up.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Reform that you may preserve
Acting as a sea anchor on change so that it happens gradually and with deliberation rather than at a rate that unsettles people
I find that difficult to reconcile with the events of the past five years.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Not clear what the Conservative USP is now, but what Johnson brings is a slick package of wishful thinking for those in denial. People who realise Farage is an entirely negative force but don't want to face reality either. Johnson makes them feel better about themselves.
It's a trick Berlusconi pulled off for more than a decade before the decline in Italy became too obvious and people turned to real fascists, still without accepting their responsibility for Italy's decline. As the UK heads towards the broken politics and economic stagnation of Italy, Johnson is the politician for our times.
Brexit will fail. It essentially has already. Will those that voted Leave admit they made a mistake and embrace the European Union? Like Heck. But there is a market for those that don't want to be eaten up by the Farage poison of betrayal. As they adapt to the new reality of the UK as a second class satellite of the EU and national stasis they will look for moral superiority in other ways. That's a market Johnson can address.
What reason do people on the centre-right have to embrace the European Union?
I know you love the EU, but sell it to me. Tell me why I should love it.
I'm not selling the EU to anyone. I am predicting people will accept a second class satellite status rather than go back on their decision. If you are not prepared to change the reality, you have to accept it at some level.
It's the protection racket argument for the EU. You take a beating inside it, or a worse beating if you try to leave.
C4: Boris Johnson will be represented by an empty podium in a television debate on Sunday night as his five remaining rivals to be Britain’s next prime minister fight it out for a place alongside him in the ballot of Conservative members.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Reform that you may preserve
Acting as a sea anchor on change so that it happens gradually and with deliberation rather than at a rate that unsettles people
And a No Deal Brexit is consistent with that how, exactly?
C4: Boris Johnson will be represented by an empty podium in a television debate on Sunday night as his five remaining rivals to be Britain’s next prime minister fight it out for a place alongside him in the ballot of Conservative members.
C4 are just a bunch of pinko Communists! Their debate might as well be hosted by RT!!
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Reform that you may preserve
Acting as a sea anchor on change so that it happens gradually and with deliberation rather than at a rate that unsettles people
And a No Deal Brexit is consistent with that how, exactly?
Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)
Interesting, I missed the show last night.
I think if Boris gets an immediate boost in the opinion polls he'll probably go for a snap election. But it would have to be a very big boost given the Tories are currently on 17%.
I cant see The Brexit Party competing with Boris led Conservatives committed to an Oct 31 departure, and they are 26% of the latest opinion poll.
It would certainly be a dilemma for Farage. I think lots of his supporters would prefer in a snap election to back Boris. So if the Brexit Party stands it risks denying Boris the majority he needs. At the same time, can Farage trust Boris? (a) to achieve a Hard Brexit majority and (b) to carry out No Deal.
Lots of lovely drama still to come.
This is the great unknown, would Farage do a deal with Boris, and vice versa ? They would be fools not to - I can't see Brexit getting over 100 seats ANY other way whatever the polls would say.
No way could I see Boris or any Tory leader doing a deal with Farage.
Brexit will fail. It essentially has already. Will those that voted Leave admit they made a mistake and embrace the European Union? Like Heck. But there is a market for those that don't want to be eaten up by the Farage poison of betrayal. As they adapt to the new reality of the UK as a second class satellite of the EU and national stasis they will look for moral superiority in other ways. That's a market Johnson can address.
What reason do people on the centre-right have to embrace the European Union?
I know you love the EU, but sell it to me. Tell me why I should love it.
Being in the EU decisively increases the power of the citizen versus the state by guaranteeing that your economic freedoms cannot be curtailed at the national level.
I take the view that if a voting majority wishes to pursue left wing policies, they are entitled to do so, so long as they adhere to democratic norms.
It would be a disgrace if a government like Attlee's was barred from pursuing policies that had got them elected.
And, the same applies to right wing governments, too.
Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)
Interesting, I missed the show last night.
I think if Boris gets an immediate boost in the opinion polls he'll probably go for a snap election. But it would have to be a very big boost given the Tories are currently on 17%.
I cant see The Brexit Party competing with Boris led Conservatives committed to an Oct 31 departure, and they are 26% of the latest opinion poll.
It would certainly be a dilemma for Farage. I think lots of his supporters would prefer in a snap election to back Boris. So if the Brexit Party stands it risks denying Boris the majority he needs. At the same time, can Farage trust Boris? (a) to achieve a Hard Brexit majority and (b) to carry out No Deal.
Lots of lovely drama still to come.
This is the great unknown, would Farage do a deal with Boris, and vice versa ? They would be fools not to - I can't see Brexit getting over 100 seats ANY other way whatever the polls would say.
No way could I see Boris or any Tory leader doing a deal with Farage.
As a Remainer, would you rather have Boris or Nigel as PM?
Interesting piece on Ch4 News about the two girls who were beaten up on the train in a homophobic attack. I didn't realise till the interview that Boris is a homophobe. Odd then that the media are expending so much energy on his experimentation with coke. Surely now we're on the way to our second Bullingdon Boy Prime Ministers it's not as though we're getting a pig in a poke.
The words "pig", "poke" and "Bullingdon" don't sit happily together.
Brexit will fail. It essentially has already. Will those that voted Leave admit they made a mistake and embrace the European Union? Like Heck. But there is a market for those that don't want to be eaten up by the Farage poison of betrayal. As they adapt to the new reality of the UK as a second class satellite of the EU and national stasis they will look for moral superiority in other ways. That's a market Johnson can address.
What reason do people on the centre-right have to embrace the European Union?
I know you love the EU, but sell it to me. Tell me why I should love it.
Being in the EU decisively increases the power of the citizen versus the state by guaranteeing that your economic freedoms cannot be curtailed at the national level.
I take the view that if a voting majority wishes to pursue left wing policies, they are entitled to do so, so long as they adhere to democratic norms.
It would be a disgrace if a government like Attlee's was barred from pursuing policies that had got them elected.
And, the same applies to right wing governments, too.
But under our system, a party can essentially have a 5 year elected dictatorship on around 30% of the vote. That aint right.
Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)
Interesting, I missed the show last night.
I think if Boris gets an immediate boost in the opinion polls he'll probably go for a snap election. But it would have to be a very big boost given the Tories are currently on 17%.
I cant see The Brexit Party competing with Boris led Conservatives committed to an Oct 31 departure, and they are 26% of the latest opinion poll.
It would certainly be a dilemma for Farage. I think lots of his supporters would prefer in a snap election to back Boris. So if the Brexit Party stands it risks denying Boris the majority he needs. At the same time, can Farage trust Boris? (a) to achieve a Hard Brexit majority and (b) to carry out No Deal.
Lots of lovely drama still to come.
This is the great unknown, would Farage do a deal with Boris, and vice versa ? They would be fools not to - I can't see Brexit getting over 100 seats ANY other way whatever the polls would say.
No way could I see Boris or any Tory leader doing a deal with Farage.
As a Remainer, would you rather have Boris or Nigel as PM?
Boris. I still don't think he really believes in Brexit.
C4: Boris Johnson will be represented by an empty podium in a television debate on Sunday night as his five remaining rivals to be Britain’s next prime minister fight it out for a place alongside him in the ballot of Conservative members.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Reform that you may preserve
Acting as a sea anchor on change so that it happens gradually and with deliberation rather than at a rate that unsettles people
And a No Deal Brexit is consistent with that how, exactly?
Spoiler: it isn't.
I know. I just wanted to know how @Charles reconciled the two.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Reform that you may preserve
Acting as a sea anchor on change so that it happens gradually and with deliberation rather than at a rate that unsettles people
And a No Deal Brexit is consistent with that how, exactly?
Spoiler: it isn't.
I know. I just wanted to know how @Charles reconciled the two.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Reform that you may preserve
Acting as a sea anchor on change so that it happens gradually and with deliberation rather than at a rate that unsettles people
I think it’s fair to say that unsettled people are very numerous lately. Dave wasn’t much of a Conservative sea anchor, was he?
Yes - Blair destroyed Major’s vision of “a country at peace with itself”.
Cameron was lazy and complacent. He would have done great in Macmillan’s cabinet but wasn’t suitable for today
Blair destroyed Major's vision of “a country at peace with itself”.
How so? And for that matter what did Major ever do to implement his vision?
The true conservative answer to Brexit would have been 10 years of transition to an EFTA like state.
This is the key point. The Tories rightly championed free trade and business. To bin off free trade and throw business into God knows what is beyond unConservative.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Reform that you may preserve
Acting as a sea anchor on change so that it happens gradually and with deliberation rather than at a rate that unsettles people
I find that difficult to reconcile with the events of the past five years.
Just come back from a meeting of the local Tories on the leadership, had a straw poll at the end. Boris won with more than all the other candidates combined, Rory, Hunt and Gove tied for second place then Javid with Raab last
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Reform that you may preserve
Acting as a sea anchor on change so that it happens gradually and with deliberation rather than at a rate that unsettles people
And a No Deal Brexit is consistent with that how, exactly?
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Reform that you may preserve
Acting as a sea anchor on change so that it happens gradually and with deliberation rather than at a rate that unsettles people
And a No Deal Brexit is consistent with that how, exactly?
Spoiler: it isn't.
I know. I just wanted to know how @Charles reconciled the two.
I view Brexit as being like the Restoration of the monarchy. It was not the job of the Conservatives' political ancestors to conserve the Commonwealth.
Brexit will fail. It essentially has already. Will those that voted Leave admit they made a mistake and embrace the European Union? Like Heck. But there is a market for those that don't want to be eaten up by the Farage poison of betrayal. As they adapt to the new reality of the UK as a second class satellite of the EU and national stasis they will look for moral superiority in other ways. That's a market Johnson can address.
What reason do people on the centre-right have to embrace the European Union?
I know you love the EU, but sell it to me. Tell me why I should love it.
Being in the EU decisively increases the power of the citizen versus the state by guaranteeing that your economic freedoms cannot be curtailed at the national level.
I take the view that if a voting majority wishes to pursue left wing policies, they are entitled to do so, so long as they adhere to democratic norms.
It would be a disgrace if a government like Attlee's was barred from pursuing policies that had got them elected.
And, the same applies to right wing governments, too.
"Adhering to democratic norms" implies that you do think the government should be constrained by certain constitutional principles and it shouldn't just be the case that the majority can do what they like. It is a good thing if one of those democratic norms means not being able to trample on the rights of individual citizens in respect of their position within a broader European Union.
Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)
Interesting, I missed the show last night.
I think if Boris gets an immediate boost in the opinion polls he'll probably go for a snap election. But it would have to be a very big boost given the Tories are currently on 17%.
I cant see The Brexit Party competing with Boris led Conservatives committed to an Oct 31 departure, and they are 26% of the latest opinion poll.
It would certainly be a dilemma for Farage. I think lots of his supporters would prefer in a snap election to back Boris. So if the Brexit Party stands it risks denying Boris the majority he needs. At the same time, can Farage trust Boris? (a) to achieve a Hard Brexit majority and (b) to carry out No Deal.
Lots of lovely drama still to come.
This is the great unknown, would Farage do a deal with Boris, and vice versa ? They would be fools not to - I can't see Brexit getting over 100 seats ANY other way whatever the polls would say.
No way could I see Boris or any Tory leader doing a deal with Farage.
As a Remainer, would you rather have Boris or Nigel as PM?
Boris. I still don't think he really believes in Brexit.
Yes, agreed.
But it's a piss-poor choice between the shambolicly inept and the outright dangerous.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Not clear what the Conservative USP is now, but what Johnson brings is a slick package of wishful thinking for those in denial. People who realise Farage is an entirely negative force but don't want to face reality either. Johnson makes them feel better about themselves.
It's a trick Berlusconi pulled off for more than a decade before the decline in Italy became too obvious and people turned to real fascists, still without accepting their responsibility for Italy's decline. As the UK heads towards the broken politics and economic stagnation of Italy, Johnson is the politician for our times.
Brexit will fail. It essentially has already. Will those that voted Leave admit they made a mistake and embrace the European Union? Like Heck. But there is a market for those that don't want to be eaten up by the Farage poison of betrayal. As they adapt to the new reality of the UK as a second class satellite of the EU and national stasis they will look for moral superiority in other ways. That's a market Johnson can address.
What reason do people on the centre-right have to embrace the European Union?
I know you love the EU, but sell it to me. Tell me why I should love it.
I'm not selling the EU to anyone. I am predicting people will accept a second class satellite status rather than go back on their decision. If you are not prepared to change the reality, you have to accept it at some level.
It's the protection racket argument for the EU. You take a beating inside it, or a worse beating if you try to leave.
I can see why you think that. I'm not sure it's a useful way of thinking or particularly good for our national mental well-being. The EU is a consortium of European states that runs the show in Europe in its members' collective interest. It's not going to bother about non members. It s doesn't force us to do anything.
Is the Football Association a protection racket for football clubs in England? I don't see many clubs striking out on their own. The EU is the same deal really.
C4: Boris Johnson will be represented by an empty podium in a television debate on Sunday night as his five remaining rivals to be Britain’s next prime minister fight it out for a place alongside him in the ballot of Conservative members.
Waste of time without Boris
If any of the rivals had a sense of humour, they could have some fun with it.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Richard has explained it well at the end of his thread header.
The point is that it now risks losing it.
You mean: “pragmatism, business-friendly financial discipline, and facing up to difficult decisions”?
They lost those three USPs many years ago. Please don’t embarrass yourself by asking us to list all the legion examples of the Conservatives being unpragmatic, running away from difficult decisions, financial ill-discipline and telling business to go FO.
You’re a partisan anti-Conservative who sees them as the biggest obstacle to Scottish nationalism, so I wouldn’t expect you to post an objective view.
Nonsense. The biggest obstacle to Scottish independence is SLab, and they are well and truly done in finest missionary style.
The SCons are a side-show.
It looks like you are just begging for a long list of examples of the Conservatives being unpragmatic, running away from difficult decisions, financial ill-discipline and telling business to go FO.
You've proved my point for me.
You made up your mind long before you even posed the question (which was clearly purely rhetorical) so there is no point engaging with you on the subject.
For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.
I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
Reform that you may preserve
Acting as a sea anchor on change so that it happens gradually and with deliberation rather than at a rate that unsettles people
I find that difficult to reconcile with the events of the past five years.
Brexit will fail. It essentially has already. Will those that voted Leave admit they made a mistake and embrace the European Union? Like Heck. But there is a market for those that don't want to be eaten up by the Farage poison of betrayal. As they adapt to the new reality of the UK as a second class satellite of the EU and national stasis they will look for moral superiority in other ways. That's a market Johnson can address.
What reason do people on the centre-right have to embrace the European Union?
I know you love the EU, but sell it to me. Tell me why I should love it.
Being in the EU decisively increases the power of the citizen versus the state by guaranteeing that your economic freedoms cannot be curtailed at the national level.
I take the view that if a voting majority wishes to pursue left wing policies, they are entitled to do so, so long as they adhere to democratic norms.
It would be a disgrace if a government like Attlee's was barred from pursuing policies that had got them elected.
And, the same applies to right wing governments, too.
Are you against constitutions and the ECHR in principle as well?
Do you think that an elected government should be completely unrestrained?
If a government was democratically elected on a policy of slaughtering every person called Sean or Siobhan, would you have any issues with that?
I don't see why everyone is saying that nothing has changed. We've just had the EU elections and there's a completely new EU parliament.
Since the EU is democratic institution then this would naturally lead to a completely new direction for the Brexit negotiations and the EU in general.
So it makes perfect sense to try and reopen negotiations.
Welcome.
The EU essentially has three preconditions to negotiations. One, to do with citizen rights is uncontroversial to most people. The second is only money. The third the is the blocker. The Irish "backstop" - actually the requirement that Northern Ireland must not diverge from a Republic of Ireland in the EU.
The EU won't budge from these conditions. Everything else is up for negotiation. But it was anyway, with "May's Deal"
And if their conditions cannot be net then they are not negotiating in good faith
Things I really hate about the 21st century ================================== 1: tattoos 2: facial tattoos 3: people who say "thanks" when the mean "please" 4: people who say "are you alright" instead of "can I help you" 5: the phrase "bring you along" 6: the phrase "reach out" 7: the ability of people to alter others' behaviour by screaming on Twitter 8: vaping 9: the incorrect use of the terms "in good faith" and "in utmost good faith" 10: cheek piercing and flesh tunnels
Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)
Interesting, I missed the show last night.
I think if Boris gets an immediate boost in the opinion polls he'll probably go for a snap election. But it would have to be a very big boost given the Tories are currently on 17%.
I cant see The Brexit Party competing with Boris led Conservatives committed to an Oct 31 departure, and they are 26% of the latest opinion poll.
It would certainly be a dilemma for Farage. I think lots of his supporters would prefer in a snap election to back Boris. So if the Brexit Party stands it risks denying Boris the majority he needs. At the same time, can Farage trust Boris? (a) to achieve a Hard Brexit majority and (b) to carry out No Deal.
Lots of lovely drama still to come.
This is the great unknown, would Farage do a deal with Boris, and vice versa ? They would be fools not to - I can't see Brexit getting over 100 seats ANY other way whatever the polls would say.
No way could I see Boris or any Tory leader doing a deal with Farage.
As a Remainer, would you rather have Boris or Nigel as PM?
Boris. I still don't think he really believes in Brexit.
Yes, agreed.
But it's a piss-poor choice between the shambolicly inept and the outright dangerous.
I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.
I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick
If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.
Hear his ‘almost’ slip when he was pressed on the October leaving date if we nearly had a deal by then; he appears to start to say something like “let’s cross that bridge”, before remembering he isn’t supposed to open any possibility of delay, and starts the sentence again with his original mantra.
Also, Boris would be best advised to avoid any mention of bridges, having spaffed £50m into the Thames on the last one without anything to show for it.
If Johnson had gone into the City, I have absolutely no doubt that sooner or later he’d have ended up in front of people like me, being interviewed. And not the sort of soft soap interviewing journalists do, either.
Comments
Boris and the Brexiteers should take note. The crowds with pitchforks and torches will assemble very quickly.
It's a trick Berlusconi pulled off for more than a decade before the decline in Italy became too obvious and people turned to real fascists, still without accepting their responsibility for Italy's decline. As the UK heads towards the broken politics and economic stagnation of Italy, Johnson is the politician for our times.
In the final scene she discovers that the statue of Margaret Thatcher was melted down as part of a programme to erase any memory of our membership of the EU. She falls to her knees and screams, "God damn you all to hell!"
Desperately Seeking Prudence.
Since the EU is democratic institution then this would naturally lead to a completely new direction for the Brexit negotiations and the EU in general.
So it makes perfect sense to try and reopen negotiations.
Johnson isn't the Ace of Spades, but he is definitely the Joker. Are Jokers wild in this case? Or are they illegal plays that show he's been cheating? Has he been subtly marking the cards so he knows what's coming up on the river? I imagine the only one who knows is BoZo himself.
He can act as a magnet for the hopes of all sides for now, but the increased momentum will make any collision with reality much more forceful. How long can he really keep it up for once he's PM?
Acting as a sea anchor on change so that it happens gradually and with deliberation rather than at a rate that unsettles people
What matters is that Tory voters will no longer be Tory voters unless it happens, and that means it has to happen. What Boris has stated explicitly and clearly is that we will leave on Halloween come what may. That almost certainly means no deal and everyone knows it. He maintains at least the semblance of protest - "I'll try and negotiate" but nobody believes it worth the effort.
The issue for the Tories is simple. Give the people what they want, and spin furiously the bad consequences (it's the EU/Corbyn to blame) and survive to fight future elections. Or become irrelevant and of the past as Farage supplants them.
The Conservatives are about to change the captain of the Titanic just as the good ship SS BREXIT has sighted the iceberg with no time to change course.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/06/24/the-empty-promise-of-boris-johnson
The 'us' and 'them' can change over time.
I know you love the EU, but sell it to me. Tell me why I should love it.
I don't think it matters whether they do disappear or not. Someone else will represent centre-right voters, and eurosceptic voters.
England have missed a penalty against Argentina.
He barely scraped past the cut-off for the first post, avoiding elimination by 2 MPs. He got the least of all remaining MPs. He needs to find 14 more to avoid automatic elimination and I'm not seeing him making that. He needs about 90 more to make the final 2 . . . where is that coming from? All this before the members vote.
If that is making ground then I wonder what struggling looks like.
He is very unConservative.
Conservatives supported joining in 1972. Neither is relevant now.
We made a Faustian pact, which came back to haunt us.
The EU essentially has three preconditions to negotiations. One, to do with citizen rights is uncontroversial to most people. The second is only money. The third the is the blocker. The Irish "backstop" - actually the requirement that Northern Ireland must not diverge from a Republic of Ireland in the EU.
The EU won't budge from these conditions. Everything else is up for negotiation. But it was anyway, with "May's Deal"
That Richard felt the need to use the word "currently" about his membership.
As for Farage, I think he'd like a softer Brexit leader, so that he can continue his claims of betrayal. So probably Hunt, Javid or Gove. I expect Farage probably most fears Johnson or Raab - the former because he's unpredictable and could get away with promising anything, the latter because he really would go for a No Deal Brexit.
The missing question of course is who would Cable prefer? I suspect the LDs would want a hard Brexit leader so they can wreak havoc in the Conservative Home Counties and similar areas. Overall then it might be something like:
Johnson: +ve for Con, -ve for Brexit
Raab post-Brexit GE: +ve for Labour/LD, -ve for Con
Raab pre-Brexit GE: +ve for Con, -ve for Brexit
Gove/Hunt/Javid: +ve for Brexit
Stewart: +ve for Brexit, -ve for LD/Lab
When broken down you can see why the Conservatives look likely to pick Johnson
https://twitter.com/Simon_Foy/status/1139568004562374656
It would be interesting to know what the trade balance between Britain and the EU has been since the single market was created.
So anyone promising re-opened negotiations really means an extension.
Cameron was lazy and complacent. He would have done great in Macmillan’s cabinet but wasn’t suitable for today
It would be a disgrace if a government like Attlee's was barred from pursuing policies that had got them elected.
And, the same applies to right wing governments, too.
How so? And for that matter what did Major ever do to implement his vision?
I reject the argument that somehow it's the job of the Conservatives to support the EU because it happens to be the current status quo.
What I like about him is that he seems genuinely interested in and pleased to see the people he meets. A rare quality.
As a good Conservative I abide by the rules
But it's a piss-poor choice between the shambolicly inept and the outright dangerous.
Is the Football Association a protection racket for football clubs in England? I don't see many clubs striking out on their own. The EU is the same deal really.
One can always dream.
You made up your mind long before you even posed the question (which was clearly purely rhetorical) so there is no point engaging with you on the subject.
Btw - what happened to all those calls for the Tories to skip a generation?
Do you think that an elected government should be completely unrestrained?
If a government was democratically elected on a policy of slaughtering every person called Sean or Siobhan, would you have any issues with that?
==================================
1: tattoos
2: facial tattoos
3: people who say "thanks" when the mean "please"
4: people who say "are you alright" instead of "can I help you"
5: the phrase "bring you along"
6: the phrase "reach out"
7: the ability of people to alter others' behaviour by screaming on Twitter
8: vaping
9: the incorrect use of the terms "in good faith" and "in utmost good faith"
10: cheek piercing and flesh tunnels