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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The favourite always wins the Tory leadership race – eventuall

SystemSystem Posts: 11,003
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The favourite always wins the Tory leadership race – eventually

Conventional wisdom has it that the favourite never wins Tory leadership races. In one sense, this is probably true. I don’t have the historic figures but before every leadership election since the Party moved away from the old Magic Circle method of leaders ‘emerging’, there’s a good case that the person who emerged the winner was not the one seen as most likely to succeed in the period before the election was called.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Blah
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,885
    Now you tell us!

    This poll should be accurate. Lay Rory?

    https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1140681238690390017?s=21
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Haazzzzzzzzzzaahhhh a new thread....where am I....am I late?
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    I see twitter is trying to sack tom watson...
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.

    Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,927
    Boris Johnson isn't the firmest Brexiteer on the ballot paper, he's not even the firmest brexiteer in a room full of remainers.

    Boris Johnson believes in Boris Johnson and will believe in whatever he thinks it will take to get elected.

    Whether apocryphal or true, the story that he wrote two columns for the telegraph, one for leave and one for remain, on the eve of declaring, speaks volumes.

    People say Farage is a spiv and a huckster, but at least you know what he stands for.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,095
    Ishmael_Z said:

    The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.

    Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?

    Because he knew, like Brown in 1994, that he was going to lose and potentially be humiliated by coming last, wrecking his career.

    Unfortunately, like Brown in 2007 that doesn't seem to apply this time.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,241
    isam said:

    Now you tell us!

    This poll should be accurate. Lay Rory?

    https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1140681238690390017?s=21

    Just completed a fairly comprehensive conhome poll on the various options. It should give a more accurate upto date state of play
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Ishmael_Z said:

    The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.

    Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?

    Yes , he didn’t have to withdraw . Just because Gove pulled his support . I suspect he was hoping someone would sort the mess out and he could then ride in . He’s now realized that he has no choice but to go for it . He’ll never get another chance but the mess is still there .
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    kyf_100 said:

    Boris Johnson isn't the firmest Brexiteer on the ballot paper, he's not even the firmest brexiteer in a room full of remainers.

    Boris Johnson believes in Boris Johnson and will believe in whatever he thinks it will take to get elected.

    Whether apocryphal or true, the story that he wrote two columns for the telegraph, one for leave and one for remain, on the eve of declaring, speaks volumes.

    People say Farage is a spiv and a huckster, but at least you know what he stands for.

    Believing in what ever it takes to get elected did not stop Blair or Cameron
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,095
    kyf_100 said:

    Boris Johnson isn't the firmest Brexiteer on the ballot paper, he's not even the firmest brexiteer in a room full of remainers.

    Boris Johnson believes in Boris Johnson and will believe in whatever he thinks it will take to get elected.

    Whether apocryphal or true, the story that he wrote two columns for the telegraph, one for leave and one for remain, on the eve of declaring, speaks volumes.

    People say Farage is a spiv and a huckster, but at least you know what he stands for.

    Himself as well, tbh...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,095
    nico67 said:

    Yes , he didn’t have to withdraw.

    Maybe he just wanted to see if he could, given he had previously aborted rather than withdrawn?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1140707332550221830
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1140707332550221830

    Also I hear he has shat in the woods.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,095
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1140707332550221830

    Also I hear he has shat in the woods.
    I don't think I can bear that image.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. There are two similar rules advising to lay the favourite. One is unique to the Conservative Party (and, by the way, surely Boris was favourite in 2015 when he pulled out). The other is a more general strategy for information-light, long-term markets.

    It is true Boris was favourite when May resigned but bookmakers and Betfair opened markets on Theresa May's successor as soon as she was elected. If you'd laid every favourite since then, you'd be well in profit on George Osborne and David Davis, and quite possibly Gove, Hammond and Rees-Mogg as well.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    isam said:

    Now you tell us!

    This poll should be accurate. Lay Rory?

    https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1140681238690390017?s=21

    Rory is obviously too short.

    His odds only make sense if you think he'll overtake Hunt and Gove to make the final two. And not because he'd then win; because he'd then shorten with Boris beating him 65:35.

    If Boris's team have any sense of mathematics they'll be manoeuvring to prevent that.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,095
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Up to a point, Lord Copper. There are two similar rules advising to lay the favourite. One is unique to the Conservative Party (and, by the way, surely Boris was favourite in 2015 when he pulled out). The other is a more general strategy for information-light, long-term markets.

    It is true Boris was favourite when May resigned but bookmakers and Betfair opened markets on Theresa May's successor as soon as she was elected. If you'd laid every favourite since then, you'd be well in profit on George Osborne and David Davis, and quite possibly Gove, Hammond and Rees-Mogg as well.

    True. But the last time a favourite at the moment of the leader's resignation became Tory leader was in 1955. Since then in order the favourites have been Butler, Butler, Maudling, Whitelaw, Heseltine, Clarke, Portillo, David Davis (twice) and probably Osborne (although he shouldn't have been).
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    nico67 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.

    Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?

    Yes , he didn’t have to withdraw . Just because Gove pulled his support . I suspect he was hoping someone would sort the mess out and he could then ride in . He’s now realized that he has no choice but to go for it . He’ll never get another chance but the mess is still there .
    More likely Boris just panicked and made the wrong call in the heat of the moment, much as David Davis seemed to provoke Boris into following him out of the Cabinet.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,112
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    nico67 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.

    Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?

    Yes , he didn’t have to withdraw . Just because Gove pulled his support . I suspect he was hoping someone would sort the mess out and he could then ride in . He’s now realized that he has no choice but to go for it . He’ll never get another chance but the mess is still there .
    More likely Boris just panicked and made the wrong call in the heat of the moment, much as David Davis seemed to provoke Boris into following him out of the Cabinet.
    Well that’s encouraging.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Up to a point, Lord Copper. There are two similar rules advising to lay the favourite. One is unique to the Conservative Party (and, by the way, surely Boris was favourite in 2015 when he pulled out). The other is a more general strategy for information-light, long-term markets.

    It is true Boris was favourite when May resigned but bookmakers and Betfair opened markets on Theresa May's successor as soon as she was elected. If you'd laid every favourite since then, you'd be well in profit on George Osborne and David Davis, and quite possibly Gove, Hammond and Rees-Mogg as well.

    And Ruth Davidson.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1140711851208171520
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    DavidL said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    nico67 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.

    Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?

    Yes , he didn’t have to withdraw . Just because Gove pulled his support . I suspect he was hoping someone would sort the mess out and he could then ride in . He’s now realized that he has no choice but to go for it . He’ll never get another chance but the mess is still there .
    More likely Boris just panicked and made the wrong call in the heat of the moment, much as David Davis seemed to provoke Boris into following him out of the Cabinet.
    Well that’s encouraging.
    Sound judgement is not a trait often associated with Boris, who famously chose to play cricket and host a barbecue at the start of the last contest.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1140711851208171520

    An odd way of looking at it. It's ok to petulantly flounce out of a May Cabinet when it does things you don't want, but it is not ok to preemptively recognise that the policies of a Boris Cabinet would not be sustainable for some people.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,000
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1140707332550221830

    Also I hear he has shat in the woods.
    Bozzie bear by name, Bozzie bear by nature.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Jonathan said:

    Blah

    Tony?
  • Options
    dodradedodrade Posts: 595
    Casino_Royale said:

    isam said:

    Now you tell us!

    This poll should be accurate. Lay Rory?

    https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1140681238690390017?s=21

    Rory is obviously too short.

    His odds only make sense if you think he'll overtake Hunt and Gove to make the final two. And not because he'd then win; because he'd then shorten with Boris beating him 65:35.

    If Boris's team have any sense of mathematics they'll be manoeuvring to prevent that.
    I assume Boris only agreed to the BBC debate tomorrow night on the expectation Rory will be out of the contest by then, though I wouldn't be surprised if he overtakes Javid and makes it until wednesday at least.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,885
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    isam said:

    Now you tell us!

    This poll should be accurate. Lay Rory?

    https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1140681238690390017?s=21

    Just completed a fairly comprehensive conhome poll on the various options. It should give a more accurate upto date state of play
    ConHome surveys more accurate than YouGovs now? How things change
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Ishmael_Z said:

    The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.

    Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?

    His wife hadn’t discovered he’d broken his promises again.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,241
    isam said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    isam said:

    Now you tell us!

    This poll should be accurate. Lay Rory?

    https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1140681238690390017?s=21

    Just completed a fairly comprehensive conhome poll on the various options. It should give a more accurate upto date state of play
    ConHome surveys more accurate than YouGovs now? How things change
    Of members yes - not voters
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    dodrade said:

    I assume Boris only agreed to the BBC debate tomorrow night on the expectation Rory will be out of the contest by then, though I wouldn't be surprised if he overtakes Javid and makes it until wednesday at least.

    Whoever makes it tomorrow night, there is the potential for quite a lot of "I am the one BoZo was scared of facing on Sunday..."
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    nico67 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.

    Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?

    Yes , he didn’t have to withdraw . Just because Gove pulled his support . I suspect he was hoping someone would sort the mess out and he could then ride in . He’s now realized that he has no choice but to go for it . He’ll never get another chance but the mess is still there .
    Yes I think that makes a great deal of sense. May last in place so long because the party hoped somehow it would be sorted and all on her shoulders. I think the panic by which Boris and others finally backed the WA showed they may have overdone it previously and risked Brexit, since the alternative is they are very stupid and did not realise what voting down the WA meant. But they had done too good a job and May too bad a job, so now they have no choice but to take the job and gamble, or never get the job.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    kyf_100 said:

    Boris Johnson isn't the firmest Brexiteer on the ballot paper, he's not even the firmest brexiteer in a room full of remainers.

    Boris Johnson believes in Boris Johnson and will believe in whatever he thinks it will take to get elected.

    Whether apocryphal or true, the story that he wrote two columns for the telegraph, one for leave and one for remain, on the eve of declaring, speaks volumes.

    People say Farage is a spiv and a huckster, but at least you know what he stands for.

    Brexiteers are about to be bitterly disappointed. Supernova post cognitive dissonance.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1140707332550221830

    Also I hear he has shat in the woods.
    That was Dominic Raab, wasn't it?
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,688
    kyf_100 said:

    Boris Johnson isn't the firmest Brexiteer on the ballot paper, he's not even the firmest brexiteer in a room full of remainers.

    Boris Johnson believes in Boris Johnson and will believe in whatever he thinks it will take to get elected.

    Whether apocryphal or true, the story that he wrote two columns for the telegraph, one for leave and one for remain, on the eve of declaring, speaks volumes.

    People say Farage is a spiv and a huckster, but at least you know what he stands for.

    If you can believe in Brexit, you can and likely will believe in Johnson.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,299
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1140711851208171520

    Quite right.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,146
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1140711851208171520

    An odd way of looking at it. It's ok to petulantly flounce out of a May Cabinet when it does things you don't want, but it is not ok to preemptively recognise that the policies of a Boris Cabinet would not be sustainable for some people.
    It's not petulant flouncing by Rory but a principled stand based, in part, on not agreeing with his core policy and also, I suspect, on not trusting him one iota and not wanting to serve under an untrustworthy leader.

    At the rally tonight Rory made a very gracious tribute to David Gauke and his leadership qualities and what he had learnt from him as a junior Minister.

    I think integrity in a leader is something Rory values and something he doesn't see in Boris. Remember he was a junior Minister at one point in the FCO so he probably has personal experience of what Boris is really like.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    FF43 said:

    If you can believe in Brexit, you can and likely will believe in Johnson.

    The Garden Bridge will be a permanent shrine...
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,885
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    isam said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    isam said:

    Now you tell us!

    This poll should be accurate. Lay Rory?

    https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1140681238690390017?s=21

    Just completed a fairly comprehensive conhome poll on the various options. It should give a more accurate upto date state of play
    ConHome surveys more accurate than YouGovs now? How things change
    Of members yes - not voters
    The YouGov was of members though wasn’t it?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1140716668441780225
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tomorrow is going to be tough to predict. Javid, Raab and Stewart are all going to be close to the 33 vote threshold IMO.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,955
    isam said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    isam said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    isam said:

    Now you tell us!

    This poll should be accurate. Lay Rory?

    https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1140681238690390017?s=21

    Just completed a fairly comprehensive conhome poll on the various options. It should give a more accurate upto date state of play
    ConHome surveys more accurate than YouGovs now? How things change
    Of members yes - not voters
    The YouGov was of members though wasn’t it?
    How do they get a representative sample of members? Same for ConHome...
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,885
    https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/1140706121369436160?s=21
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,543
    What's the timing of tomorrow's vote?
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,044
    Just read Dr Fox's take on the Lib Dem hustings. Disappointing to see that as the Lib Dems re-emerge into the spotlight they appear to be determined to sink into wishy washy platitudes hardly becoming of the times we are in.

  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,299
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/1140706121369436160?s=21

    LOL :lol:
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited June 2019
    FrankBooth said:

    Just read Dr Fox's take on the Lib Dem hustings. Disappointing to see that as the Lib Dems re-emerge into the spotlight they appear to be determined to sink into wishy washy platitudes hardly becoming of the times we are in.

    Many English Remain voters will vote for them anyway. They haven’t got a choice.

    Scottish and Welsh Remain voters do have a non-wishy washy alternative, and will largely take it.
  • Options
    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    nico67 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.

    Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?

    Yes , he didn’t have to withdraw . Just because Gove pulled his support . I suspect he was hoping someone would sort the mess out and he could then ride in . He’s now realized that he has no choice but to go for it . He’ll never get another chance but the mess is still there .
    More likely Boris just panicked and made the wrong call in the heat of the moment, much as David Davis seemed to provoke Boris into following him out of the Cabinet.
    Well that’s encouraging.
    Sound judgement is not a trait often associated with Boris, who famously chose to play cricket and host a barbecue at the start of the last contest.
    To be fair, playing cricket and hosting a barbecue has improved his image somewhat in my eyes, albeit from a desperately low base.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,089
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1140711851208171520

    Quite right.
    It's one of those irregular verbs, isn't it?

    I make a principled stand.
    You get to the end of your tether.
    He, she or it petulantly flounces.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,789
    edited June 2019
    Benpointer said:

    What's the timing of tomorrow's vote?

    Voting from 4pm result at 6pm.

    More or less...
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,543
    GIN1138 said:

    Benpointer said:

    What's the timing of tomorrow's vote?

    Voting from 4pm result at 6pm.

    More or less...
    Thanks
  • Options
    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1140711851208171520

    Quite right.
    No-one even vaguely sane would want to work for that bone idle clown, life is too short.
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1140707332550221830

    He got that one from May, surely.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,299
    Chris said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1140711851208171520

    Quite right.
    It's one of those irregular verbs, isn't it?

    I make a principled stand.
    You get to the end of your tether.
    He, she or it petulantly flounces.
    Not really. I'd think the same about Blairites not countenancing working with Corbyn, Corbynites not countenancing working with Blair, ERGers not countenancing working with Rory, etc. I'm also not condoning the resignations from May's cabinet, but it takes an absurd twist of logic to argue that trying it and then resigning is worse than simply refusing to sully your hands.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,299
    _Anazina_ said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1140711851208171520

    Quite right.
    No-one even vaguely sane would want to work for that bone idle clown, life is too short.
    In general a bone idle clown can be a good boss. They need you.
  • Options
    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1140711851208171520

    Quite right.
    No-one even vaguely sane would want to work for that bone idle clown, life is too short.
    In general a bone idle clown can be a good boss. They need you.
    And then they fuck up any decent work you do. Take it from me, you don’t want a clown as a boss.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,543
    _Anazina_ said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1140711851208171520

    Quite right.
    No-one even vaguely sane would want to work for that bone idle clown, life is too short.
    In general a bone idle clown can be a good boss. They need you.
    And then they fuck up any decent work you do. Take it from me, you don’t want a clown as a boss.
    Too true!
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    GIN1138 said:

    Benpointer said:

    What's the timing of tomorrow's vote?

    Voting from 4pm result at 6pm.

    More or less...
    Why so late? I seem to recall it was earlier on Thursday just gone?
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,089
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Chris said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1140711851208171520

    Quite right.
    It's one of those irregular verbs, isn't it?

    I make a principled stand.
    You get to the end of your tether.
    He, she or it petulantly flounces.
    Not really. I'd think the same about Blairites not countenancing working with Corbyn, Corbynites not countenancing working with Blair, ERGers not countenancing working with Rory, etc. I'm also not condoning the resignations from May's cabinet, but it takes an absurd twist of logic to argue that trying it and then resigning is worse than simply refusing to sully your hands.
    So at least you agree Raab is a hypocrite?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Recollection of the 1990 Tory leadership battle on BBC2 now in the last episode of 'Thstcher: A Very British Revolution'
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,241
    StuartDickson said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Just read Dr Fox's take on the Lib Dem hustings. Disappointing to see that as the Lib Dems re-emerge into the spotlight they appear to be determined to sink into wishy washy platitudes hardly becoming of the times we are in.

    Many English Remain voters will vote for them anyway. They haven’t got a choice.

    Scottish and Welsh Remain voters do have a non-wishy washy alternative, and will largely take it.
    As a matter of interest who do you think the alternative is in Wales bearing in mind there is no appetite for independence
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    In general a bone idle clown can be a good boss. They need you.

    That has not been my experience
  • Options
    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    The reality is that Boris is going to easily win any ballot of the members.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,543
    HYUFD said:

    Recollection of the 1990 Tory leadership battle on BBC2 now in the last episode of 'Thstcher: A Very British Revolution'

    I am recording it - so no spoilers please. :wink:
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/1140723886465671168
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,089
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/1140723886465671168

    Go Ro!
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,303
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1140711851208171520

    An odd way of looking at it. It's ok to petulantly flounce out of a May Cabinet when it does things you don't want, but it is not ok to preemptively recognise that the policies of a Boris Cabinet would not be sustainable for some people.
    And in the same breath refer to enforcing collective responsibility....

    Raab really isn’t very bright.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    GIN1138 said:

    Benpointer said:

    What's the timing of tomorrow's vote?

    Voting from 4pm result at 6pm.

    More or less...
    To be pedantic I think it's from 3pm to 5pm.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,950
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Recollection of the 1990 Tory leadership battle on BBC2 now in the last episode of 'Thstcher: A Very British Revolution'

    It's an oft repeated, half true cliche that Thatch was a bit mad by the end, and on the evidence here she definitely was.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,303
    Watching the Thatdher program - Tebbit really is a bitter old git.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Recollection of the 1990 Tory leadership battle on BBC2 now in the last episode of 'Thstcher: A Very British Revolution'

    It's an oft repeated, half true cliche that Thatch was a bit mad by the end, and on the evidence here she was.
    In that way Boris is ahead of the game. He’s not even in office yet.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,078
    kyf_100 said:

    Boris Johnson isn't the firmest Brexiteer on the ballot paper, he's not even the firmest brexiteer in a room full of remainers.

    Boris Johnson believes in Boris Johnson and will believe in whatever he thinks it will take to get elected.

    Whether apocryphal or true, the story that he wrote two columns for the telegraph, one for leave and one for remain, on the eve of declaring, speaks volumes.

    People say Farage is a spiv and a huckster, but at least you know what he stands for.

    It is true. I have read both articles (in the Shipman book). The one arguing for Remain is pretty good. I think he is on balance a Remainer. But of course your main point is correct. What he most believes in is his self-interest.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,490
    edited June 2019
    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.

    Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?

    Yes , he didn’t have to withdraw . Just because Gove pulled his support . I suspect he was hoping someone would sort the mess out and he could then ride in . He’s now realized that he has no choice but to go for it . He’ll never get another chance but the mess is still there .
    Yes I think that makes a great deal of sense. May last in place so long because the party hoped somehow it would be sorted and all on her shoulders. I think the panic by which Boris and others finally backed the WA showed they may have overdone it previously and risked Brexit, since the alternative is they are very stupid and did not realise what voting down the WA meant. But they had done too good a job and May too bad a job, so now they have no choice but to take the job and gamble, or never get the job.
    It's not impossible that we shall look back on events and see Boris getting through the absolute very deal that TM did all the work on while getting none of the credit, while Boris does fine out of it, and blames TM that sadly this deal isn't a better one. The hindsight reason for not standing in 2016 being that someone else can do the hard slog of drafting and agreeing with the ghastly EU, while you come in and hit a quick winning single at the end and be carried shoulder high to the pub by your mates while TM does the washing up.

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    Evening all,

    Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.

    Boris is just not being tackled on anything because he wont do the events. Just as May was not found out in the crucible of a proper leadership election.

    They will rue the day.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,789
    GIN1138 said:

    Benpointer said:

    What's the timing of tomorrow's vote?

    Voting from 4pm result at 6pm.

    More or less...
    #FakeNews - Ignore
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/1140723886465671168

    There's something endearing about how badly all his clothes fit him.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,543
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Benpointer said:

    What's the timing of tomorrow's vote?

    Voting from 4pm result at 6pm.

    More or less...
    #FakeNews - Ignore
    I assume as a good Europhile you just gave me the times in Central European Time.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,299
    Chris said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Chris said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1140711851208171520

    Quite right.
    It's one of those irregular verbs, isn't it?

    I make a principled stand.
    You get to the end of your tether.
    He, she or it petulantly flounces.
    Not really. I'd think the same about Blairites not countenancing working with Corbyn, Corbynites not countenancing working with Blair, ERGers not countenancing working with Rory, etc. I'm also not condoning the resignations from May's cabinet, but it takes an absurd twist of logic to argue that trying it and then resigning is worse than simply refusing to sully your hands.
    So at least you agree Raab is a hypocrite?
    I didn't support what Raab did.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,241
    rottenborough said:

    Evening all,

    Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.

    Boris is just not being tackled on anything because he wont do the events. Just as May was not found out in the crucible of a proper leadership election.

    They will rue the day.

    Not defending Boris but he is in the BBC live debate tomorrow night with whoever survives the vote earlier in the day
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,543
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/1140723886465671168

    There's something endearing about how badly all his clothes fit him.
    Rory's beginning to out-charisma Boris. Who knows where it will all end.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,089
    Telegraph rattled by Rory:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/17/did-rory-stewart-spy-mi6-intrigue-surrounds-tory-candidate-leadership/
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/TimesONeill/status/1140584318097600512
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    Peston on ITV News:

    Stewart's team privately believe they are two votes short at the moment.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    Evening all,

    Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.

    Boris is just not being tackled on anything because he wont do the events. Just as May was not found out in the crucible of a proper leadership election.

    They will rue the day.

    Not defending Boris but he is in the BBC live debate tomorrow night with whoever survives the vote earlier in the day
    Indeed. Let's hope he gets a thorough grilling.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,241
    AndyJS said:

    Peston in ITV News:

    Stewart's team privately believe they are two votes short at the moment.

    Peston reporting that would indicate Rory is safe. Peston rarely gets it right
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,543
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AndyJS said:

    Peston in ITV News:

    Stewart's team privately believe they are two votes short at the moment.

    Peston reporting that would indicate Rory is safe. Peston rarely gets it right
    :lol:
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    Chris said:

    Telegraph rattled by Rory:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/17/did-rory-stewart-spy-mi6-intrigue-surrounds-tory-candidate-leadership/

    You can smell the panic.
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    steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Has anyone asked Rory if it comes down to a choice between no deal or revoke which he'll go for?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/alstewitn/status/1140728296755347456
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,688
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1140711851208171520

    Quite right.
    No-one even vaguely sane would want to work for that bone idle clown, life is too short.
    In general a bone idle clown can be a good boss. They need you.
    Johnson seems to have been an OK boss to have worked for. He was an incompetent FM but didn't let his underlings take the blame. Unlike Dominic Raab.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1140728336487989248
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,241
    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    Evening all,

    Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.

    Boris is just not being tackled on anything because he wont do the events. Just as May was not found out in the crucible of a proper leadership election.

    They will rue the day.

    Not defending Boris but he is in the BBC live debate tomorrow night with whoever survives the vote earlier in the day
    Indeed. Let's hope he gets a thorough grilling.
    And of course the live hustings when down to two. Boris looks unbeatable but who knows
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AndyJS said:

    Peston in ITV News:

    Stewart's team privately believe they are two votes short at the moment.

    Peston reporting that would indicate Rory is safe. Peston rarely gets it right
    Peston also believes the membership vote will be Boris v Rory.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,089
    steve_garner said:

    Has anyone asked Rory if it comes down to a choice between no deal or revoke which he'll go for?

    He said if the EU refused an extension he would support No Deal rather than Revoke.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    edited June 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Watching the Thatdher program - Tebbit really is a bitter old git.

    Had his wife not been disabled as a result of the Brighton bomb, Tebbit would have run as the true heir to Thatcher in the 1990 leadership race rather than Major
  • Options
    steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Chris said:

    steve_garner said:

    Has anyone asked Rory if it comes down to a choice between no deal or revoke which he'll go for?

    He said if the EU refused an extension he would support No Deal rather than Revoke.
    Thanks.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    edited June 2019
    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Recollection of the 1990 Tory leadership battle on BBC2 now in the last episode of 'Thstcher: A Very British Revolution'

    It's an oft repeated, half true cliche that Thatch was a bit mad by the end, and on the evidence here she definitely was.
    She should have gone after 10 years in 1989, one thing Blair did get right was resigning in 2007, a decade after he came to power
  • Options
    PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    Jonathan said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Recollection of the 1990 Tory leadership battle on BBC2 now in the last episode of 'Thstcher: A Very British Revolution'

    It's an oft repeated, half true cliche that Thatch was a bit mad by the end, and on the evidence here she was.
    In that way Boris is ahead of the game. He’s not even in office yet.
    Could be that as soon as Boris becomes PM it will also be towards the end of his premiership. No way in hell he will even last half Thatcher's stint.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    rottenborough said:

    Evening all,

    Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.

    Boris is just not being tackled on anything because he wont do the events. Just as May was not found out in the crucible of a proper leadership election.

    They will rue the day.

    Boris is doing the BBC debate tomorrow evening
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    AndyJS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AndyJS said:

    Peston in ITV News:

    Stewart's team privately believe they are two votes short at the moment.

    Peston reporting that would indicate Rory is safe. Peston rarely gets it right
    Peston also believes the membership vote will be Boris v Rory.
    Yes please.
This discussion has been closed.