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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Over now to the group that rates IDS as the fifth best CON lea

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Over now to the group that rates IDS as the fifth best CON leader since the war

So it is going to be Johnson and Hunt   who will be on the postal ballot of CON members.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited June 2019
    1st unlike Boris?

    This is by no means a foregone conclusion. Hunt is far more likely to move the membership than Gove. He will go big on his business background and clean life.

    If Boris has more dodgy skeletons this could be interesting.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Shocking frankly that only 15% net have a negative opinion of May. She is the worst PM since Lord North.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    In the other significant contest Bangladesh now require about 14 runs per over. They've kept pace with the Aussies so far; can they continue to do so?
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    The Iraq war jibe doesn't make any sense.

    From IDS' Wikipedia:

    "In November 2001, he was one of the first politicians to call for an invasion of Iraq and held talks in Washington, DC, with senior US officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney, Condoleezza Rice and Paul Wolfowitz."

    Why would he try to undermine Blair enacting a policy he was a vocal advocate for?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Shocking frankly that only 15% net have a negative opinion of May. She is the worst PM since Lord North.

    David Cameron retains that distinction. May was dealt a bad hand that she played badly but Cameron was the dealer.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    My mother will be relieved, she doesn't like either Gove or Boris.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Heath lost 3 out of 4 general elections he fought.

    IDS never fought a general election but won most votes in both local elections he fought so it is not as odd as suggested
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    They are great people, we are in safe hands.
    AndyJS said:

    Result:

    Johnson 160
    Hunt 77
    Gove 75

    I hereby declare, with complete lack of logic, that we can count all non Boris votes together, and therefore it is effectively Johnson 160, Hunt 152. See, very close.

    If Boris runs the country as well as he has run this contest, we will be fine......

    He has a lot less control over relevant factors when running the country. Even of the factors he has controlled during the contest, they will be far more unreliable when it comes to actually governing. So it seems a faint hope.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    1st unlike Boris?

    This is by no means a foregone conclusion. Hunt is far more likely to move the membership than Gove. He will go big on his business background and clean life.

    If Boris has more dodgy skeletons this could be interesting.

    Gove polled better with the members than Hunt head to head v Boris and the membership will not pick another Remainer, especially one open to extending again like Hunt.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    I managed to make my Hunt/Boris profits worse by hedging on Gove -- too busy with work and Royal Ascot to concentrate on trifles like who runs the country.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited June 2019
    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    kle4 said:

    They are great people, we are in safe hands.

    AndyJS said:

    Result:

    I

    If Boris runs the country as well as he has run this contest, we will be fine......

    He has a lot less control over relevant factors when running the country. Even of the factors he has controlled during the contest, they will be far more unreliable when it comes to actually governing. So it seems a faint hope.

    Yes indeed. All we might say is that Gavin Williamson would make a better Chief Whip than Julian Smith. It won't be sufficient. The Tory-DUP numbers don't stack up.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    :+1:
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Incidentally, it's not impossible that Gove-Vine could do more damage to Boris out of the last two than if he was in it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Seems incredible that Hunt was 100/1 at one point. Indeed, I got in at 110/1
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    edited June 2019
    I can't believe how naive the MPs lining up to speak to Beth Rigby on Sky News are. Robert Buckland stating that Boris is great as he won't crash out without a deal, only for Raab to come on and state that Boris will get us out come what may on October 31. WHICH IS IT?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    The way Boris has run rings around everyone in this leadership election and has picked off his opponents one by one at will tells me that far from being one of the shortest PMs in history we could be in for a long reign...

    You heard it hear first. ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    1st unlike Boris?

    This is by no means a foregone conclusion. Hunt is far more likely to move the membership than Gove. He will go big on his business background and clean life.

    If Boris has more dodgy skeletons this could be interesting.

    It has been noted that most of Boris' skeletons are well know, and it woudl need to be something massive to make people care now. He also has a massive lead, is inherently more likable than Hunt to the membership, is getting plenty of MP support from a wide range (even if that is a problem for the future) and the membership cares more about Brexit purity than someone trying to appear grown up. Boris says he can get it done. So does Hunt. Bottom line, who do the members want to believe? We know the answer.

    Nothing is ever a foregone conclusion, but it is close. If Hunt could not even win amongst MPs, who are far less fervent Boris fans than the membership, there;s no way he wins the members.

    And of course many will vote early on I assume, before Hunt can try to claw back support.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    Only issue is that one of the horses is a stallion, the other a pony ...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Amazed that Howard rates so lowly with the membership. I would have thought his disgustingly xenophobic 2005 election campaign would have been right up their street.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    RH1992 said:

    I can't believe the MPs lining up to speak to Beth Rigby on Sky News are. Robert Buckland stating that Boris is great as he won't crash out without a deal, only for Raab to come on and state that Boris will get us out come what may on October 31. WHICH IS IT?

    He'll get back to you on that in a couple of months.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited June 2019
    Amazingly ... this won't just be about Brexit now. Once upon a time Conservatives cared about 'f*ck' business. Hunt can, and will, really go for the jugular on this. He has a successful business background that will sit very well in the party.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    Seems incredible that Hunt was 100/1 at one point. Indeed, I got in at 110/1

    You can thank Jacob Rees-Mogg for that, he managed to skew the betting markets.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited June 2019
    kle4 said:

    1st unlike Boris?

    This is by no means a foregone conclusion. Hunt is far more likely to move the membership than Gove. He will go big on his business background and clean life.

    If Boris has more dodgy skeletons this could be interesting.

    It has been noted that most of Boris' skeletons are well know, and it woudl need to be something massive to make people care now. He also has a massive lead, is inherently more likable than Hunt to the membership, is getting plenty of MP support from a wide range (even if that is a problem for the future) and the membership cares more about Brexit purity than someone trying to appear grown up. Boris says he can get it done. So does Hunt. Bottom line, who do the members want to believe? We know the answer.

    Nothing is ever a foregone conclusion, but it is close. If Hunt could not even win amongst MPs, who are far less fervent Boris fans than the membership, there;s no way he wins the members.

    And of course many will vote early on I assume, before Hunt can try to claw back support.
    Hunt will be doing well to beat Clarke's 39% in 2001 and Davis' 32% in 2005 never mind winning
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    Only issue is that one of the horses is a stallion, the other a pony ...
    Lots of molehills and waterjumps on this course...
  • isamisam Posts: 40,723
    edited June 2019
    Gah! Backed Gove to make the last two at 5/1 and laid Hunt at 2/5! Political Betting isn't my thing
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910
    IDS never lost a GE while leader!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    67/33 to Johnson according to the YouGov members poll from a month ago. I can't see many/any switchers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    Only issue is that one of the horses is a stallion, the other a pony ...
    In which case the pony should follow the lesson of the Toirtoise and the Hare - cheating works.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    kle4 said:

    1st unlike Boris?

    This is by no means a foregone conclusion. Hunt is far more likely to move the membership than Gove. He will go big on his business background and clean life.

    If Boris has more dodgy skeletons this could be interesting.

    It has been noted that most of Boris' skeletons are well know
    You sure about that?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910

    Amazingly ... this won't just be about Brexit now. Once upon a time Conservatives cared about 'f*ck' business. Hunt can, and will, really go for the jugular on this. He has a successful business background that will sit very well in the party.

    Conservative Business Interests
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    edit
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    You don't seriously think Hunt will win, do you?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    Good God Almighty above, have the Conservative Party picked somebody who is a decent human being? Does Hunt have some dreadful secret in his closet that I am unaware of? Slave keeper or backstreet heroin dealer, perhaps? Surely he must have done something bad? Or have the Tory Party, after too many years of slumming it with the corrupt and the unearned arrogant, actually picked somebody you could trust with your daughter in a room? If so, well, well done, and perhaps you'd like to make it a habit from now on, yes?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    IDS never lost a GE while leader!

    IDS never fought a GE election while leader! :D
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    viewcode said:

    Good God Almighty above, have the Conservative Party picked somebody who is a decent human being? Does Hunt have some dreadful secret in his closet that I am unaware of? Slave keeper or backstreet heroin dealer, perhaps? Surely he must have done something bad? Or have the Tory Party, after too many years of slumming it with the corrupt and the unearned arrogant, actually picked somebody you could trust with your daughter in a room? If so, well, well done, and perhaps you'd like to make it a habit from now on, yes?

    Hunt doesn't stand a chance in the members' ballot.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    1st unlike Boris?

    This is by no means a foregone conclusion. Hunt is far more likely to move the membership than Gove. He will go big on his business background and clean life.

    If Boris has more dodgy skeletons this could be interesting.

    It has been noted that most of Boris' skeletons are well know
    You sure about that?
    Yes. Outside of a serious crime having been committed I don't think enough of the membership would care about anything they hear about Boris. Love children? Racist remarks? Lack of a plan? What does that matter vs BREXIT!?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,723
    edited June 2019

    Seems incredible that Hunt was 100/1 at one point. Indeed, I got in at 110/1

    You can thank Jacob Rees-Mogg for that, he managed to skew the betting markets.
    How much did you lay of Boris?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    Only issue is that one of the horses is a stallion, the other a pony ...
    Probably the biggest metaphor fail in the history of PB.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    AndyJS said:

    viewcode said:

    Good God Almighty above, have the Conservative Party picked somebody who is a decent human being? Does Hunt have some dreadful secret in his closet that I am unaware of? Slave keeper or backstreet heroin dealer, perhaps? Surely he must have done something bad? Or have the Tory Party, after too many years of slumming it with the corrupt and the unearned arrogant, actually picked somebody you could trust with your daughter in a room? If so, well, well done, and perhaps you'd like to make it a habit from now on, yes?

    Hunt doesn't stand a chance in the members' ballot.
    Of course he stands a chance.

    Boris is now going to come under great scrutiny. The membership will warm to Hunt for a number of reasons.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Artist said:

    67/33 to Johnson according to the YouGov members poll from a month ago. I can't see many/any switchers.

    Assume a not great campaign from Boris and a good campaign from Hunt (neither being guaranteed), and maybe it is a bit closer. Anything better than 60/40 is a great result for Hunt I think.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    You don't seriously think Hunt will win, do you?

    I'm not speaking for TSE but this betting business is about odds. He may not 'seriously think' Hunt will win, but he sure as heck is sitting pretty on a 100/1 bet. I'd take 2/1 right now.

    (Actually I took 11/1 a couple of weeks ago)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Shocking frankly that only 15% net have a negative opinion of May. She is the worst PM since Lord North.

    David Cameron retains that distinction. May was dealt a bad hand that she played badly but Cameron was the dealer.
    No, to be fair to Cameron he fought for what he believed in. A referendum was coming no matter what, there was too much demand for it already.

    Cameron to his great credit fought against Brexit as he didn't believe in it, but once he was defeated he recognised as an opponent of Brexit he couldn't realistically be the one to implement it so he resigned.

    May lacked that self-awareness. Despite being an opponent of Brexit she decided after the result that she was the one best placed to implement it. She should have listened to Cameron and followed his lead. It was hubristic to think that despite not believing in it she was best placed to implement it.

    May wasn't dealt a bad hand. Cameron was dealt the hand with the result and folded. She saw him fold and chose to pick up the cards.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,723

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    You don't seriously think Hunt will win, do you?

    I'm not speaking for TSE but this betting business is about odds. He may not 'seriously think' Hunt will win, but he sure as heck is sitting pretty on a 100/1 bet. I'd take 2/1 right now.

    (Actually I took 11/1 a couple of weeks ago)
    He's 12/1
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Now we have a clear opponent my guess is that Hunt's number will get closer in the next YouGov members' poll. I've just laid Johnson at 1.9
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    I think it's a fairly safe assumption that, if everything remains the same, the members will go with Boris.

    So: what if everything doesn't remain the same?
    *) His campaign could explode. He could say something, or something from his past could come out, that means he either withdraws or, less likely, the members will not vote for him.
    *) He could become ill/die. Needless to say, this is not something I wish.

    Aside from this, what else could affect the odds ? And how likely are these?

    The really funny (but unlikely) thing would be if something comes out that causes Boris to withdraw after members have voted, but before he is officially leader. I assume Hunt would then become leader by default, even if the members hadn't voted for him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    AndyJS said:

    viewcode said:

    Good God Almighty above, have the Conservative Party picked somebody who is a decent human being? Does Hunt have some dreadful secret in his closet that I am unaware of? Slave keeper or backstreet heroin dealer, perhaps? Surely he must have done something bad? Or have the Tory Party, after too many years of slumming it with the corrupt and the unearned arrogant, actually picked somebody you could trust with your daughter in a room? If so, well, well done, and perhaps you'd like to make it a habit from now on, yes?

    Hunt doesn't stand a chance in the members' ballot.
    Of course he stands a chance.

    Boris is now going to come under great scrutiny. The membership will warm to Hunt for a number of reasons.
    Care to elaborate on those reasons?

    To be clear, while I think Hunt is very bland, I think him a far better leadership prospect than Boris, though neither has any real plan on Brexit (not their official plan A's at any rate). But now is not the time for bland I think, not for this membership looking, in panic, at how to deliver Brexit (requiring a miracle) and neuter Farage.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    It might be even better than you think. This is Boris .... events dear boy events.

    We may yet end up with Prime Minister Hunt. Just imagine @TSE you might land a 100/1 tip, better than some 50/1 POTUS bet that apparently was landed by some PBer or other .... :smiley:
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    isam said:

    Gah! Backed Gove to make the last two at 5/1 and laid Hunt at 2/5! Political Betting isn't my thing

    As I said the other day, it is a fools errand to bet on a race which we know to be fixed and for which the betting markets are also manipulated.

    The two horse race is more of a betters market, albeit I share Casino Royale's view that there are any number of random personal things that could arise and blow up the current favourite.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,723
    edited June 2019

    Now we have a clear opponent my guess is that Hunt's number will get closer in the next YouGov members' poll. I've just laid Johnson at 1.9

    If that's not a typo it's the worst bet I've ever seen!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    You don't seriously think Hunt will win, do you?

    I'm not speaking for TSE but this betting business is about odds. He may not 'seriously think' Hunt will win, but he sure as heck is sitting pretty on a 100/1 bet. I'd take 2/1 right now.

    (Actually I took 11/1 a couple of weeks ago)
    I'll give you 2/1 right now if you want it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910

    AndyJS said:

    viewcode said:

    Good God Almighty above, have the Conservative Party picked somebody who is a decent human being? Does Hunt have some dreadful secret in his closet that I am unaware of? Slave keeper or backstreet heroin dealer, perhaps? Surely he must have done something bad? Or have the Tory Party, after too many years of slumming it with the corrupt and the unearned arrogant, actually picked somebody you could trust with your daughter in a room? If so, well, well done, and perhaps you'd like to make it a habit from now on, yes?

    Hunt doesn't stand a chance in the members' ballot.
    Of course he stands a chance.

    Boris is now going to come under great scrutiny. The membership will warm to Hunt for a number of reasons.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFTRwD85AQ4
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    AndyJS said:

    viewcode said:

    Good God Almighty above, have the Conservative Party picked somebody who is a decent human being? Does Hunt have some dreadful secret in his closet that I am unaware of? Slave keeper or backstreet heroin dealer, perhaps? Surely he must have done something bad? Or have the Tory Party, after too many years of slumming it with the corrupt and the unearned arrogant, actually picked somebody you could trust with your daughter in a room? If so, well, well done, and perhaps you'd like to make it a habit from now on, yes?

    Hunt doesn't stand a chance in the members' ballot.
    I don't know. I don't care. I'm just glad they picked one who isn't a [that word you can't use in front of women]. At last. Finally. A Tory who isn't a shit, isn't entitled beyond his wit, isn't a psychopath, and doesn't have sex with pigs heads. I don't know how he got past the guards, but I'm glad to see somebody who doesn't make my skin crawl.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    Now we have a clear opponent my guess is that Hunt's number will get closer in the next YouGov members' poll. I've just laid Johnson at 1.9

    Yep. That's my thinking too.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Hunt = Bryan Gould
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    isam said:

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    You don't seriously think Hunt will win, do you?

    I'm not speaking for TSE but this betting business is about odds. He may not 'seriously think' Hunt will win, but he sure as heck is sitting pretty on a 100/1 bet. I'd take 2/1 right now.

    (Actually I took 11/1 a couple of weeks ago)
    He's 12/1
    7's and 8's but coming in. (The 12/1 sportingbet.com seems like a dud link)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Evening all :)

    The inevitability of all this continues - Boris Johnson has been the Group 1 horse against a bunch of selling platers but Hunt may get a third of the vote and it'll be interesting to see how many of the members bother to vote.

    Johnson's interview in the Standard was long on generalities and frighteningly short on specifics - he didn't mention the FTA that someone on here bangs on about ad infinitum and ad nauseam and nor of course was there any hint of an election - all very sober and serious.

    The endorsement of the Standard isn't a surprise given Evgeny Lebedev's long standing admiration. It's a Conservative paper in an increasingly non-Conservative city - it has recently announced job cuts and the piles of undistributed papers which litter East Ham well into the evening bear witness to an operation that is floundering.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    You don't seriously think Hunt will win, do you?
    I had £2 on Hunt at 100-1. Tempted to keep it but have cashed in for £17...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Now we have a clear opponent my guess is that Hunt's number will get closer in the next YouGov members' poll. I've just laid Johnson at 1.9

    Yep. That's my thinking too.
    At 1.9?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    isam said:

    Seems incredible that Hunt was 100/1 at one point. Indeed, I got in at 110/1

    You can thank Jacob Rees-Mogg for that, he managed to skew the betting markets.
    How much did you lay of Boris?
    Nearly as much as I did with JRM and Jeremy Corbyn in the next PM market.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    viewcode said:

    Good God Almighty above, have the Conservative Party picked somebody who is a decent human being? Does Hunt have some dreadful secret in his closet that I am unaware of? Slave keeper or backstreet heroin dealer, perhaps? Surely he must have done something bad? Or have the Tory Party, after too many years of slumming it with the corrupt and the unearned arrogant, actually picked somebody you could trust with your daughter in a room? If so, well, well done, and perhaps you'd like to make it a habit from now on, yes?

    Hunt doesn't stand a chance in the members' ballot.
    I don't know. I don't care. I'm just glad they picked one who isn't a [that word you can't use in front of women]. At last. Finally. A Tory who isn't a shit, isn't entitled beyond his wit, isn't a psychopath, and doesn't have sex with pigs heads. I don't know how he got past the guards, but I'm glad to see somebody who doesn't make my skin crawl.
    Point of Order! Again, I don't recall the pigs head story being described as sexual in nature. That's why it was ok...
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Bozo needs to win so a Leaver can own the car crash .

    Hunt is of course the saner candidate and won’t trash the UKs reputation further. It would have been more interesting to have Gove in the final two , not sure how Lady Macbeth will react to the dodgy goings on in the vote.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    nico67 said:

    Bozo needs to win so a Leaver can own the car crash .

    Hunt is of course the saner candidate and won’t trash the UKs reputation further. It would have been more interesting to have Gove in the final two , not sure how Lady Macbeth will react to the dodgy goings on in the vote.

    Get behind Hunt and knife Boris as planned, with any luck
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    You sure about that?

    I'm not. Still wondering why he pulled out so quickly when Gove went elsewhere last time.

    Then you never know if somebody else has been keeping their powder dry.....

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    edited June 2019
    Jonathan said:

    Hunt = Bryan Gould

    Oh, and you had to go prick my bubble, didn't you?

    [Is briefly sad... :( ]
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    Now that Hunt has made the final two if Boris wins I'd expect him to keep Hunt at the Foreign Office or move him to the Treasury.

    As for Gove I'd expect Boris will make him Transport Secretary or move him to Northern Ireland.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,723
    edited June 2019

    isam said:

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    You don't seriously think Hunt will win, do you?

    I'm not speaking for TSE but this betting business is about odds. He may not 'seriously think' Hunt will win, but he sure as heck is sitting pretty on a 100/1 bet. I'd take 2/1 right now.

    (Actually I took 11/1 a couple of weeks ago)
    He's 12/1
    7's and 8's but coming in. (The 12/1 sportingbet.com seems like a dud link)
    Eh?


  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    You don't seriously think Hunt will win, do you?

    I'm not speaking for TSE but this betting business is about odds. He may not 'seriously think' Hunt will win, but he sure as heck is sitting pretty on a 100/1 bet. I'd take 2/1 right now.

    (Actually I took 11/1 a couple of weeks ago)
    I'll give you 2/1 right now if you want it.
    Why would I take 2/1 when I'm on at 11/1 and very happy about that? If I didn't have a bet on I would be tempted by something much shorter. Why? Because we're dealing here with Boris Johnson. He's his own worst enemy and he's about to come under much more intense scrutiny.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    viewcode said:

    Good God Almighty above, have the Conservative Party picked somebody who is a decent human being? Does Hunt have some dreadful secret in his closet that I am unaware of? Slave keeper or backstreet heroin dealer, perhaps? Surely he must have done something bad? Or have the Tory Party, after too many years of slumming it with the corrupt and the unearned arrogant, actually picked somebody you could trust with your daughter in a room? If so, well, well done, and perhaps you'd like to make it a habit from now on, yes?

    Hunt doesn't stand a chance in the members' ballot.
    I don't know. I don't care. I'm just glad they picked one who isn't a [that word you can't use in front of women]. At last. Finally. A Tory who isn't a shit, isn't entitled beyond his wit, isn't a psychopath, and doesn't have sex with pigs heads. I don't know how he got past the guards, but I'm glad to see somebody who doesn't make my skin crawl.
    Hunt is a typical Tory as far as I can see, but everyone has their own opinions.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910

    Now that Hunt has made the final two if Boris wins I'd expect him to keep Hunt at the Foreign Office or move him to the Treasury.

    As for Gove I'd expect Boris will make him Transport Secretary or move him to Northern Ireland.

    Move him by ferry or plane? :lol:
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited June 2019
    isam said:

    Now we have a clear opponent my guess is that Hunt's number will get closer in the next YouGov members' poll. I've just laid Johnson at 1.9

    If that's not a typo it's the worst bet I've ever seen!
    I have a feeling that,many like me don’t understand this betting business. If I bet it’s because I believe it could happen and the odds are worth the risk. The professionals are playing a market with balanced books and a recommendation to back x at y odds is not one the amateur should follow. I’m sure we have been given lessons before bot I would welcome a tutorial on how you bet/lay etc so we can understand what is going on.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    isam said:

    isam said:

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    You don't seriously think Hunt will win, do you?

    I'm not speaking for TSE but this betting business is about odds. He may not 'seriously think' Hunt will win, but he sure as heck is sitting pretty on a 100/1 bet. I'd take 2/1 right now.

    (Actually I took 11/1 a couple of weeks ago)
    He's 12/1
    7's and 8's but coming in. (The 12/1 sportingbet.com seems like a dud link)
    https://prnt.sc/o4huf6
    Yah but I'm looking at fixed odds. Not going into a betting exchange for this market. Ta.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,723

    isam said:

    Seems incredible that Hunt was 100/1 at one point. Indeed, I got in at 110/1

    You can thank Jacob Rees-Mogg for that, he managed to skew the betting markets.
    How much did you lay of Boris?
    Nearly as much as I did with JRM and Jeremy Corbyn in the next PM market.
    You dont have to spin everything! How much did you lay of Boris and at what price?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    isam said:

    Political Betting isn't my thing

    ;)
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Re Jeremy Hunt, has there been a Prime Minister previously whose spouse was not from the UK ?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,723
    edited June 2019

    isam said:

    isam said:

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    You don't seriously think Hunt will win, do you?

    I'm not speaking for TSE but this betting business is about odds. He may not 'seriously think' Hunt will win, but he sure as heck is sitting pretty on a 100/1 bet. I'd take 2/1 right now.

    (Actually I took 11/1 a couple of weeks ago)
    He's 12/1
    7's and 8's but coming in. (The 12/1 sportingbet.com seems like a dud link)
    https://prnt.sc/o4huf6
    Yah but I'm looking at fixed odds. Not going into a betting exchange for this market. Ta.
    It is fixed odds!!!

    I will lay you 9/1 for as much as you like. How much?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910
    PaulM said:

    Re Jeremy Hunt, has there been a Prime Minister previously whose spouse was not from the UK ?

    Well, not sure about spouses, but Bonar Law himself was technically from Canada.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    PaulM said:

    Re Jeremy Hunt, has there been a Prime Minister previously whose spouse was not from the UK ?

    Must be some who were Irish, before it became a separate state probably. Wellington for one
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Michael Gove has now finished third in two consecutive races. Unlucky, squire.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    PaulM said:

    Re Jeremy Hunt, has there been a Prime Minister previously whose spouse was not from the UK ?

    Well we've had a foreign born Prime Minister before.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited June 2019
    nichomar said:

    isam said:

    Now we have a clear opponent my guess is that Hunt's number will get closer in the next YouGov members' poll. I've just laid Johnson at 1.9

    If that's not a typo it's the worst bet I've ever seen!
    I have a feeling that,many like me don’t understand this betting business. If I bet it’s because I believe it could happen and the odds are worth the risk. The professionals are playing a market with balanced books and a recommendation to back x at y odds is not one the amateur should follow. I’m sure we have been given lessons before bot I would welcome a tutorial on how you bet/lay etc so we can understand what is going on.
    In simple terms, trading bets are bets that you don’t think will come good in the final outcome but that you think might become more popular as events unfold.

    For example, if you thought Hunt was likely to be Boris’s opponent, it would have been worth backing him at 26, as you could recently, even though you don’t think he will win the leadership, because now he is down to 14 you can lay him off (i.e. sell your bet) and make a profit.

    A similar example now might be to lay (bet against) Boris, even though you think he will win, banking on there being some moment during the hustings when he drops a clanger and his odds suddenly become longer, allowing you to back him again at a profit.

    There is probably a website somewhere that explains all this better than I can.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    You don't seriously think Hunt will win, do you?
    I had £2 on Hunt at 100-1. Tempted to keep it but have cashed in for £17...
    It is never too early to take a profit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Michael Gove has now finished third in two consecutive races. Unlucky, squire.

    Increaed his number of MPs considerably. 2-3 more contests and he will win it!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Now that Hunt has made the final two if Boris wins I'd expect him to keep Hunt at the Foreign Office or move him to the Treasury.

    As for Gove I'd expect Boris will make him Transport Secretary or move him to Northern Ireland.

    A government with no majority requires the goodwill of the big hitters not demoting rivals. Keep Gove at Environment or some other big department.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    PaulM said:

    Re Jeremy Hunt, has there been a Prime Minister previously whose spouse was not from the UK ?

    Catherine Wellesley, Duchess of Wellington, was born in Ireland in 1773. Bonar Law was himself a Canadian.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    AndyJS said:

    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    viewcode said:

    Good God Almighty above, have the Conservative Party picked somebody who is a decent human being? Does Hunt have some dreadful secret in his closet that I am unaware of? Slave keeper or backstreet heroin dealer, perhaps? Surely he must have done something bad? Or have the Tory Party, after too many years of slumming it with the corrupt and the unearned arrogant, actually picked somebody you could trust with your daughter in a room? If so, well, well done, and perhaps you'd like to make it a habit from now on, yes?

    Hunt doesn't stand a chance in the members' ballot.
    I don't know. I don't care. I'm just glad they picked one who isn't a [that word you can't use in front of women]. At last. Finally. A Tory who isn't a shit, isn't entitled beyond his wit, isn't a psychopath, and doesn't have sex with pigs heads. I don't know how he got past the guards, but I'm glad to see somebody who doesn't make my skin crawl.
    Hunt is a typical Tory as far as I can see, but everyone has their own opinions.
    I was referring to their nomenklatura, not their middle-level nor the rank and file. I am perfectly aware that there are many decent people in the party, (including May come to think of it, who we seem to be forgetting in the kerfuffle) What I was referring to was that for the past three-four years, our screens have been filled with politicians at the edge or beyond of decency and sanity. And we came within two votes of having to pick between a fool and a knave... :(
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    isam said:

    Now we have a clear opponent my guess is that Hunt's number will get closer in the next YouGov members' poll. I've just laid Johnson at 1.9

    If that's not a typo it's the worst bet I've ever seen!
    I have a feeling that,many like me don’t understand this betting business. If I bet it’s because I believe it could happen and the odds are worth the risk. The professionals are playing a market with balanced books and a recommendation to back x at y odds is not one the amateur should follow. I’m sure we have been given lessons before bot I would welcome a tutorial on how you bet/lay etc so we can understand what is going on.
    In simple terms, trading bets are bets that you don’t think will come good in the final outcome but that you think might become more popular as events unfold.

    For example, if you thought Hunt was likely to be Boris’s opponent, it would have been worth backing him at 26, as you could recently, even though you don’t think he will win the leadership, because now he is down to 14 you can lay him off (i.e. sell your bet) and make a profit.

    A similar example now might be to lay (bet against) Boris, even though you think he will win, banking on there being some moment during the hustings when he drops a clanger and his odds suddenly become longer, allowing you to back him again at a profit.

    There is probably a website somewhere that explains all this better than I can.
    Thanks for trying I thought it was important that amateurs like me didn’t react to some of the tips on here without understanding the logic.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,723
    Other people seem scared to reveal their bets on this race. Here are mine. Not the best, but transparency is nice, especially when you are tipping stuff to others.









  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    So it's Boris against an awkward typo. If Boris manages to go a few weeks without saying or doing something utterly moronic (or even if he does) he's probably going to be PM. Hunt doesn't stand a chance with the members.

    I don't expect Mrs Gove will be happy, and I expect she'll have been holding something back on him to use, but I can't see a scandal making any real difference now.

    There's still the possibility that the ERG realise they've been had and pull their support, just like there's a chance the few remaining Tory remainers decide they've had enough and defect. Both low probabilities though - MPs tend to like their jobs.

    Still not got a clue if Boris will betray the ERG and ask for an extension, or if he's really mad enough to go for No Deal. Either way, all this seems to be doing is postponing the split in the party. Farage isn't going anywhere and the LDs will revel in the polarisation he causes. Further chaos and inaction awaits!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited June 2019
    isam said:


    isam said:

    Seems incredible that Hunt was 100/1 at one point. Indeed, I got in at 110/1

    You can thank Jacob Rees-Mogg for that, he managed to skew the betting markets.
    How much did you lay of Boris?
    Nearly as much as I did with JRM and Jeremy Corbyn in the next PM market.
    You dont have to spin everything! How much did you lay of Boris and at what price?
    I don't know at the moment, I'd rather not give an inaccurate answer because we know that would get you overexcited.

    I've placed bets through various channels and with a few other people.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    You don't seriously think Hunt will win, do you?
    I had £2 on Hunt at 100-1. Tempted to keep it but have cashed in for £17...
    It is never too early to take a profit.
    Unless you were an early buyer of Bitcoin and happy to double your money?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,723
    edited June 2019

    isam said:


    isam said:

    Seems incredible that Hunt was 100/1 at one point. Indeed, I got in at 110/1

    You can thank Jacob Rees-Mogg for that, he managed to skew the betting markets.
    How much did you lay of Boris?
    Nearly as much as I did with JRM and Jeremy Corbyn in the next PM market.
    You dont have to spin everything! How much did you lay of Boris and at what price?
    I don't know, I'd rather not give an inaccurate answer because we know that would get you overexcited.
    Surely your Betfair account is easy enough to read?

    I'm not being nasty, or trying to upset you. Just interested to know how much people who tip stuff on here have on
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited June 2019
    isam said:

    Other people seem scared to reveal their bets on this race. Here are mine. Not the best, but transparency is nice, especially when you are tipping stuff to others.









    If only choo-choo had stood!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    Jonathan said:

    Hunt = Bryan Gould

    Bryan Gould would have been an interesting leader for Labour, and if had won would have prevented Blair getting the opportunity. I always liked his style and politics, but with his sane Euroscepticism (he resigned from John Smiths front bench over Maastricht) would have taken Labour in a very different direction. He would have won in 97, but not the same landslide.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    kle4 said:

    Michael Gove has now finished third in two consecutive races. Unlucky, squire.

    Increaed his number of MPs considerably. 2-3 more contests and he will win it!
    And he might not have to wait long to get another go.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    Michael Gove has now finished third in two consecutive races. Unlucky, squire.

    Lucky for us though. Personally I'm focusing on the next PM but one. Ed or Jo?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,847
    Birds sing out of tune. Rain clouds hide the moon.

    I don't care what they say I can't get interested in a run-off without Gove.

    That's how I feel about it. Scandalous electoral fraud.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    ydoethur said:

    PaulM said:

    Re Jeremy Hunt, has there been a Prime Minister previously whose spouse was not from the UK ?

    Catherine Wellesley, Duchess of Wellington, was born in Ireland in 1773. Bonar Law was himself a Canadian.
    I only learnt the other day that Bonar was a given name - he was Andrew Bonar Law, son of the Reverend James Law - and that it rhymes with honour, not boner. So if you're ever pushed for a conversational gambit at a dinner party...
This discussion has been closed.