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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brecon & Radnor recall petition succeeds and an early by-e
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brecon & Radnor recall petition succeeds and an early by-election test for the new CON leader is in prospect
The result for the Chris Davies by election vote is announced. More on @ITVWales later pic.twitter.com/PC24Ex9XqM
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So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
It was 5 this morning wasn't it? Or not. It's getting so tight it's quite hard to work out!
1 vacant. 7 not attending. 1 Speaker.
Opposed 319 [1] [2]
[1] I always get confused with Deputy Speakers - are they allowed to vote or not?
[2] I realise Nick Boles and Lady Herman may be counted upon to support the government, but not technically?
Where he actually to do so, and the both By-elections lost, the government majority would fall to zero.
Can you hear the wicket fall Fernando?
I remember long ago another starry match like this
In the firelight Fernando
You were humming to yourself and softly stroked the ball
You couldn't see the distant Rashid
And the sounds of cat calls were coming from afar
A good look for the modern tory party.
322 v 319
So if the tories lose the by election it will be 322 v 320
This really is starting to enter endgame territory for this parliament. Surely?
Mind you, a successful VONC does depend on the independents & even Labour MPs falling into line and that's by no means a given. Where are Nick Boles and Johnny Mercer in these figures? They surely won't support a VONC?
Time to party like its 1993.
The independents will only go for it if they want to do something else with their lives than be MP's.
The independents, I guess you're right. Sigh.
I always work back from the General Election.
318 Con win - Bercow is counted as 'Con', so then goes to Speaker = 317
Three (Allen, Wollaston and Soubry) to CUK = 314
Boles walks = 313
Davies unseated = 312
Mercer? If you don't count him, then its 311.
If somehow Field also decides to fall on his sword, its 310.
The 'government' can survive for a bit longer if it is really 312.
If it really becomes 310, I think they're heading for toastville.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1142026414927089664
I don't believe this.
All eyes on Phillip Lee ...
Government proposes legislation (any legislation - doesn't matter - it could be the 'don't pick your nose at a bus stop Act) = defeated as only get 312 votes FOR. The DUP agreement is only C&S.
Labour table No Confidence vote, and it fails because DUP suddenly switch to support and a lot of independents find themselves washing their hair that night.
Rinse and repeat (no pun intended).
How long can a Government REALLY go on, not able to get ANYTHING passed but surviving any VoNC thrown their way? Three years of zombie government. I can't see it.
This is the problem with the FTPA. Confidence motions are not coupled with legislation, so people like Sammy Wilson can vote against the government on everything all day long, but then support them on the VoNC later that night.
This is a by-election. So must be much lower surely?
I'd caution against LD over-confidence in this by-election. Against the apparently national euphoria that will greet Boris Johnson becoming Prime Minister (and I imagine he'll pay a couple of visits to the constituency in the campaign), the LDs will need to be at the top of their game.
It will be a real test for the Party's new leader and it's always good to get that by-election win whatever the circumstances.
Meanwhile, in other areas:
https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2019/06/nao-rubbishes-government-over-data-usage-and-storage?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=
How can Governments and indeed Councils take the right decisions if they don't have the right information? My experience of local Government information systems is they are clogged with information but none of it is much use for (and very often the authority doesn't have the tools to carry out) proper data analysis and forecasting.
One or two examples of good practice exist but I suspect local and central Government is drowning in a porridge of useless information.
307 plus DUP plus Woodcock, Lewis, Hermon, minus one Deputy Speaker is 319
That leaves 321 who could vote against, but I expect Austin and some of CHUK would abstain.
But this is something else. At a critical juncture in this nation's history, with the governing party about to elect someone massively divisive, the Government is almost bereft of its working majority.
It's a fantastic spectacle.
A civil case is a possibility, I suppose.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1142024069682012160
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1142022855753916416
https://twitter.com/bexin2d/status/1142026447290347521
I can think of a handful of Cons MPs who might not support him even in a VONC. I mean, in one way why on earth would Dominic Grieve have any incentive to do so?
We here are talking about making a minority government work with just 307 Conservative MPs.
David Cameron, and no one on this site, believed they could with 307 in May 2010.
It comes to something when you are basically relying on the ill-discipline of opposition MPs and the goodwill of former Conservative MPs.
It's why I can't see them managing to 2022. We're in deadsville territory. A government surviving only because the opposition can't be bothered opposing!
Can anyone really see Boris Johnson putting up with this? I think he will pre-empt and go to the country.
Are you telling me Calais isn't ours any more?
I think this is the way it will go. It's Boris' best chance of success, especially if he does a tie-in with Farage.
It will be an incredible General Election. I expect something sensational from the LibDems. But there might well be a Cons-BXP majority because Corbyn is so toxic.
“In the confusion many guests understandably felt threatened and when one protester rushed past me towards the top table I instinctively reacted.
"There was no security present and I was for a split second genuinely worried she might have been armed.
"As a result I grasped the intruder firmly in order to remove her from the room as swiftly as possible."
He added: "I deeply regret this episode and unreservedly apologise to the lady concerned for grabbing her but in the current climate I felt the need to act decisively to close down the threat to the safety of those present."
He has at the very least established reasonable doubt.
Question I have, is that going to be prior to Oct 31st? Surely yes?
Well, TSE wanted the excitement of Boris v Gove but the build up to a General Election would be even more so.
This will also be enough to get the EU to push back our "departure" date to 31st December I'd have thought...
I have a 100% record of spoiling my ballot in PCC elections (but with nothing quite so graphic!).
I hope they have now come to whatever sense they have left.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-48705621
I seem to recall a by-election writ in late 2009 or early 2010 not being moved for about 6 months until it became moot.
There you go. Edit: this is it. Bad quality though.
That just doesn't work for the Tories...
Well, if they really believe the country wants Brexit.
Which I don't.