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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s position is holding up well on the betting markets w

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s position is holding up well on the betting markets where he’s now an 82% chance to succeed TMay

Betdata.io chart of Betfair exchange movements

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Comments

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274
    First like Boris, sadly.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Conservatives are testing the idea that any publicity is good publicity at the moment.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Second, maybe like Boris :p
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    It is an absolute mystery how the Camberwell story is STILL running though. Even in the right wing press. It should have been the easiest thing in the world to shut down, especially as his girlfriend has shown no signs of doing anything except backing him.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    I think Hunt is correct to state that Boris is a coward in The Times Newspaper on Monday. But I also think Boris is arrogant and out of touch by his refusal to debate his rival in the contest to be next PM. I think the advisers around Johnson are misreading this and Hunt can exploit this massively. What has Boris got to hide? Even before this problem with his next door neighbours he was not engaging. He will be made PM on the terms the public dictate not the other way around....
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    I think we'll find the vast majority of Tory members think having a blazing row with your partner is not enough reason to be voted against. They'll also think those saying Boris should explain the row, including Jeremy Hunt, are paying little or no heed to Carrie's rights of privacy.



  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    alex. said:

    It is an absolute mystery how the Camberwell story is STILL running though. Even in the right wing press. It should have been the easiest thing in the world to shut down, especially as his girlfriend has shown no signs of doing anything except backing him.

    The mystery is what Johnson was doing on his laptop! The public are asked to put their faith in an unelected PM. Boris has to realise evasion and not confessing to his deeds comes at a price....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Scott_P said:
    I guess Lynton will be throwing a pack of dead cats on the table in the next day or so...
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    I think we'll find the vast majority of Tory members think having a blazing row with your partner is not enough reason to be voted against. They'll also think those saying Boris should explain the row, including Jeremy Hunt, are paying little or no heed to Carrie's rights of privacy.



    I thought she was a Tory HQ media operative? If you ever work for the Tories or Labour and have a relationship with a high profile public figure privacy goes out of the window...
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    I think we'll find the vast majority of Tory members think having a blazing row with your partner is not enough reason to be voted against. They'll also think those saying Boris should explain the row, including Jeremy Hunt, are paying little or no heed to Carrie's rights of privacy.



    What Hunt is really asking for is Johnson to say what his political position is on anything. On virtually every major issue he is sitting on the fence. With the exception of Brexit, where he seems to believe that personal willpower is enough.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Is it a shambles in the race for number 10, or a race for the shambles in number 10?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    As predicted, BBC bottled it again on a major Brexit/Boris issue:

    https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1142883370856275971
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    edited June 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Carrie doesn't live here anymore
    Carrie used to room on the second floor
    Sorry that she left no forwarding address.
    That was known to me
    Carrie doesn't live here anymore
    You could always ask at the corner store
    Carrie had a date with her own kind if fate
    It's plain to see

    Channelling Sir Cliff!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    If even MPs think (or claim to think) he is making such attacks though, how many members think it too?
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019

    I think we'll find the vast majority of Tory members think having a blazing row with your partner is not enough reason to be voted against. They'll also think those saying Boris should explain the row, including Jeremy Hunt, are paying little or no heed to Carrie's rights of privacy.



    I thought she was a Tory HQ media operative? If you ever work for the Tories or Labour and have a relationship with a high profile public figure privacy goes out of the window...
    So if the row was about a sexual matter do you think Boris should have to explain it publicly?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Scott_P said:
    Hmm. Johnson's supporters are all fighting it out over who gets the job of... Northern Ireland secretary? Something doesn't ring true...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Scott_P said:
    :lol:

    Busy trying to divvy out the top jobs, whilst his campaign is on fire.

    Talk about hubris.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,916
    Streeter said:
    "I ask you: Do you want total Brexit? If necessary, do you want a Brexit more total and radical than anything that we can even yet imagine?"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    kle4 said:

    If even MPs think (or claim to think) he is making such attacks though, how many members think it too?
    OEs sticking together....
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    That Brookes cartoon last week seems to sum Johnson up all too well, as a fighter pilot forever shooting down his own plane.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Streeter said:
    You think we should not be a democracy first and foremost?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Streeter said:
    There is a danger that the...Borisness of one candidate artificially enhances the other in some eyes.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585

    Streeter said:
    You think we should not be a democracy first and foremost?
    Why not have another referendum then just to check out whether democracy is working or not?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    I think we'll find the vast majority of Tory members think having a blazing row with your partner is not enough reason to be voted against. They'll also think those saying Boris should explain the row, including Jeremy Hunt, are paying little or no heed to Carrie's rights of privacy.



    I thought she was a Tory HQ media operative? If you ever work for the Tories or Labour and have a relationship with a high profile public figure privacy goes out of the window...
    So if the row was about a sexual matter do you think Boris should have to explain it publicly?
    It depends on how you define sexual matter.

    If Johnson is serious about being PM then he has his future in his own hands and should confess it. If something comes out later it will damage him more in two weeks time than it will now. He wants to be PM, he has to engage with the people he wants to govern and not skulk away and complain about press intrusion.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    alex. said:

    It is an absolute mystery how the Camberwell story is STILL running though. Even in the right wing press. It should have been the easiest thing in the world to shut down, especially as his girlfriend has shown no signs of doing anything except backing him.

    The tape. The recording of the row completely changes the story.

    If it was a report from a neighbour it gets dealt with in a five second statement "Nosy neighbours completely over reacting to lovers tiff".

    The tape means it now becomes a tight rope for Boris to walk where ever single otterance can be verified and the slightest inexactitude can be crucified.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Streeter said:
    You think we should not be a democracy first and foremost?
    Nobody voted for no deal though. Perhaps it might be an idea to check that they haven't changed their mind if this is the Brexit on offer.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Streeter said:
    Could you link to a news item where he said those exact words?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    As predicted, BBC bottled it again on a major Brexit/Boris issue:

    https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1142883370856275971

    Bottled it? How is it remotely newsworthy?

    Bannon claimed last year he was involved with Boris - it was reported on the news.
    Johnson denied it last year - it was less widely reported but was.

    Now we have a video of Bannon claiming that which we already knew he had claimed. That is news how exactly?

    If the BBC get a video of David Icke claiming our politicians are lizard people should they run that?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049

    Scott_P said:
    Carrie doesn't live here anymore
    Carrie used to room on the second floor
    Sorry that she left no forwarding address.
    That was known to me
    Carrie doesn't live here anymore
    You could always ask at the corner store
    Carrie had a date with her own kind if fate
    It's plain to see

    Channelling Sir Cliff!
    Have you see the Woody Allen Movie Husbands and Wives...itself based on Bergman's Scenes from a Marriage?

    It is a major reason why I have on some occasions turned down some enticing opportunities and returned home to spend a quiet night at home...and with no regrets.

    I have always found older men's obsessional lusting after younger women quite pathetic...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1142884781266472961

    Is the bottling going to become an issue or are the membership so steadfast in their determination to elect Boris they don't care.

    If so, they will probably be getting another ballot paper before the year is out.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    Floater said:

    Streeter said:
    Could you link to a news item where he said those exact words?
    https://twitter.com/Beany_1/status/1142693235527180288
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    alex. said:

    Streeter said:
    You think we should not be a democracy first and foremost?
    Nobody voted for no deal though. Perhaps it might be an idea to check that they haven't changed their mind if this is the Brexit on offer.
    Why? Do we check with them on everything?

    Funny how all the people begging for this to be checked are those who disagreed with the outcome in the original vote and typically also those who disagreed with checking any step of the way towards European integration.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    As predicted, BBC bottled it again on a major Brexit/Boris issue:

    https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1142883370856275971

    Perhaps because 'Boris talks to some bloke' is boring.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    tyson said:

    Scott_P said:
    Carrie doesn't live here anymore
    Carrie used to room on the second floor
    Sorry that she left no forwarding address.
    That was known to me
    Carrie doesn't live here anymore
    You could always ask at the corner store
    Carrie had a date with her own kind if fate
    It's plain to see

    Channelling Sir Cliff!
    Have you see the Woody Allen Movie Husbands and Wives...itself based on Bergman's Scenes from a Marriage?

    It is a major reason why I have on some occasions turned down some enticing opportunities and returned home to spend a quiet night at home...and with no regrets.

    I have always found older men's obsessional lusting after younger women quite pathetic...
    Somewhat ironic that it was written then, by Woody Allen. A truism nonetheless.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Streeter said:
    You think we should not be a democracy first and foremost?
    Why not have another referendum then just to check out whether democracy is working or not?
    And then another one the following week. And the week after. We could make every Thursday referendum day.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Alistair said:

    alex. said:

    It is an absolute mystery how the Camberwell story is STILL running though. Even in the right wing press. It should have been the easiest thing in the world to shut down, especially as his girlfriend has shown no signs of doing anything except backing him.

    The tape. The recording of the row completely changes the story.

    If it was a report from a neighbour it gets dealt with in a five second statement "Nosy neighbours completely over reacting to lovers tiff".

    The tape means it now becomes a tight rope for Boris to walk where ever single otterance can be verified and the slightest inexactitude can be crucified.
    If there was something unbelievable bad on the tape we would already have heard it. He could easily cover it off with some form of words saying that "We'd both had difficult days, it was all triggered off by something silly (spilt wine) harsh words were spoken (can't recall exactly what) things were thrown, etc. etc.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Floater said:

    Streeter said:
    Could you link to a news item where he said those exact words?
    He said this in Brum at the hustings, or at least, by my memory, something very close to this. But possibly a sentence missing?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    As predicted, BBC bottled it again on a major Brexit/Boris issue:

    https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1142883370856275971

    Perhaps because 'Boris talks to some bloke' is boring.
    'Some bloke claimed last year he talked to Boris' even.

    Earth shattering for Carole, but maybe the BBC have more important issues.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585

    Streeter said:
    You think we should not be a democracy first and foremost?
    Why not have another referendum then just to check out whether democracy is working or not?
    And then another one the following week. And the week after. We could make every Thursday referendum day.
    No just one more, Nigey said in 2017 if it was close in Remain's favour he wanted another, just to be sure... or are you running scared?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    alex. said:

    Streeter said:
    You think we should not be a democracy first and foremost?
    Nobody voted for no deal though. Perhaps it might be an idea to check that they haven't changed their mind if this is the Brexit on offer.
    Why? Do we check with them on everything?

    Funny how all the people begging for this to be checked are those who disagreed with the outcome in the original vote and typically also those who disagreed with checking any step of the way towards European integration.
    You don't think that destroying successful businesses employing hundreds or thousands of staff, may give a bit of a pause for thought?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Streeter said:
    You think we should not be a democracy first and foremost?
    Nobody voted for no deal though. Perhaps it might be an idea to check that they haven't changed their mind if this is the Brexit on offer.
    Why? Do we check with them on everything?

    Funny how all the people begging for this to be checked are those who disagreed with the outcome in the original vote and typically also those who disagreed with checking any step of the way towards European integration.
    You don't think that destroying successful businesses employing hundreds or thousands of staff, may give a bit of a pause for thought?
    No. I think its a shame though, if it happens, and we should offer help if we can for transition.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Streeter said:
    You think we should not be a democracy first and foremost?
    Why not have another referendum then just to check out whether democracy is working or not?
    And then another one the following week. And the week after. We could make every Thursday referendum day.
    No just one more, Nigey said in 2017 if it was close in Remain's favour he wanted another, just to be sure... or are you running scared?
    Ah just one more, funny that. So if you win that will be the end of the matter? No best two out of three?

    I couldn't care less that "Nigey" said, he's a tosser like Bannon.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    edited June 2019
    https://twitter.com/EvanHD/status/1142691063834058759

    Why has Bannon got Boris's iphone # and vice versa? Bannon has been out of white house for a year or more iirc.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585

    Streeter said:
    You think we should not be a democracy first and foremost?
    Why not have another referendum then just to check out whether democracy is working or not?
    And then another one the following week. And the week after. We could make every Thursday referendum day.
    No just one more, Nigey said in 2017 if it was close in Remain's favour he wanted another, just to be sure... or are you running scared?
    Ah just one more, funny that. So if you win that will be the end of the matter? No best two out of three?

    I couldn't care less that "Nigey" said, he's a tosser like Bannon.
    OK just for you, best of three, or four if you include 1975 too.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049

    tyson said:

    Scott_P said:
    Carrie doesn't live here anymore
    Carrie used to room on the second floor
    Sorry that she left no forwarding address.
    That was known to me
    Carrie doesn't live here anymore
    You could always ask at the corner store
    Carrie had a date with her own kind if fate
    It's plain to see

    Channelling Sir Cliff!
    Have you see the Woody Allen Movie Husbands and Wives...itself based on Bergman's Scenes from a Marriage?

    It is a major reason why I have on some occasions turned down some enticing opportunities and returned home to spend a quiet night at home...and with no regrets.

    I have always found older men's obsessional lusting after younger women quite pathetic...
    Somewhat ironic that it was written then, by Woody Allen. A truism nonetheless.
    Good point. about Allen..

    But both films depict older men's descent into chaos after leaving their wives for frivolous younger women, and how quickly they bitterly regret it as their lives decompose....and in both films they return back to their wives....


  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Scott_P said:
    Carrie doesn't live here anymore
    Carrie used to room on the second floor
    Sorry that she left no forwarding address.
    That was known to me
    Carrie doesn't live here anymore
    You could always ask at the corner store
    Carrie had a date with her own kind if fate
    It's plain to see

    Channelling Sir Cliff!
    Have you see the Woody Allen Movie Husbands and Wives...itself based on Bergman's Scenes from a Marriage?

    It is a major reason why I have on some occasions turned down some enticing opportunities and returned home to spend a quiet night at home...and with no regrets.

    I have always found older men's obsessional lusting after younger women quite pathetic...
    Somewhat ironic that it was written then, by Woody Allen. A truism nonetheless.
    Good point. about Allen..

    But both films depict older men's descent into chaos after leaving their wives for frivolous younger women, and how quickly they bitterly regret it as their lives decompose....and in both films they return back to their wives....


    You would have thought Johnson might have learned that lesson, several times over (allegedy).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Streeter said:
    Its a good job the UK has a better exchange rate for exporters now if their margin is that low.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Talking about Boris Johnsons laptop, it would not surprise me if someone had hacked into it over the last few years. His mobile has probably also been monitored.

    Given the lengths people/organisations will go to in this world to 'trap' unsuspecting people. It would not surprise me if several foreign powers or organisations have targeted Boris...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    HYUFD said:
    I can tell you are wavering towards Jezza.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Streeter said:
    You think we should not be a democracy first and foremost?
    We aren't in any relevant sense. We are a representative democracy who have dabbled in direct democracy on half a dozen occasions and should now conclude that it doesn't really work for us.

    You are also wrong to claim that those calling for another vote "disagreed with" the outcome in 2016. I effectively abstained in 2016 and it wasn't until late 2018 that I concluded that brexit was an irretrievable disaster and we needed to think again.

    I don't know if you have noticed what an increasingly isolated voice you are on this forum? It's almost as if the more intelligent former advocates of brexit had realised their mistake and quietly stopped posting about the topic, leaving you looking rather exposed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Quite. It's not necessarily irrelevant to overall context, but many are the political partisans that pretend it is all that matters, when it affects their side.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Scott_P said:
    Carrie doesn't live here anymore
    Carrie used to room on the second floor
    Sorry that she left no forwarding address.
    That was known to me
    Carrie doesn't live here anymore
    You could always ask at the corner store
    Carrie had a date with her own kind if fate
    It's plain to see

    Channelling Sir Cliff!
    Have you see the Woody Allen Movie Husbands and Wives...itself based on Bergman's Scenes from a Marriage?

    It is a major reason why I have on some occasions turned down some enticing opportunities and returned home to spend a quiet night at home...and with no regrets.

    I have always found older men's obsessional lusting after younger women quite pathetic...
    Somewhat ironic that it was written then, by Woody Allen. A truism nonetheless.
    Good point. about Allen..

    But both films depict older men's descent into chaos after leaving their wives for frivolous younger women, and how quickly they bitterly regret it as their lives decompose....and in both films they return back to their wives....


    The frivolous one is Boris.

    I doubt many of us could put up with him for long before going off the deep end.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:
    Hunt looks normal - contrast that with Boris who cannot even be bothered to turn up to debate!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2019
    I guess Cox is not as true to his opinions in the face of political pressure as it appeared earlier this year when he did not give the answer May would dearly have loved to have had in relation to the tweaks to the PD. Turns out if it is Boris saying stuff, whether it is true or not in his eyes does not matter.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    edited June 2019
    deleted - snap
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Floater said:

    Streeter said:
    Could you link to a news item where he said those exact words?
    He said this in Brum at the hustings, or at least, by my memory, something very close to this. But possibly a sentence missing?
    Which might change the meaning might it not?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    UK could consider joining Trump in war on Iran says Hunt as potential PM vows to consider support on 'case-by-case basis'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7172895/Britain-consider-joining-military-assault-Iran-Jeremy-Hunt-says.html
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585

    UK could consider joining Trump in war on Iran says Hunt as potential PM vows to consider support on 'case-by-case basis'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7172895/Britain-consider-joining-military-assault-Iran-Jeremy-Hunt-says.html

    Why not? After all Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria all worked out so very well.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    Floater said:
    I note they use the term "Brexiteer MPs" and then clarify it with "former Remainers" to describe Johnson backers Nicky Morgan etc. The Telegraph is becoming a joke now, I bet they wouldn't dare describe Hunt as a Brexiteer or indeed anything other than a Remainer despite the fact that he now advocates no deal if nothing else comes along.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited June 2019

    I think we'll find the vast majority of Tory members think having a blazing row with your partner is not enough reason to be voted against. They'll also think those saying Boris should explain the row, including Jeremy Hunt, are paying little or no heed to Carrie's rights of privacy.



    I thought she was a Tory HQ media operative? If you ever work for the Tories or Labour and have a relationship with a high profile public figure privacy goes out of the window...
    So if the row was about a sexual matter do you think Boris should have to explain it publicly?
    She refused to swallow and Bozo got upset ! Personally I could care less what the row was about . I think the media are cremating the story now. As long as he hasn’t done anything violent towards her then I think the public won’t be that bothered .

    The problem is instead of proper scrutiny over his Brexit plans the media will just print anything but for the next few weeks .

    His current plan seems to be a load of bluff and bluster.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    @Ishmael_Z , @Sunil_Prasannan , @Benpointer and anybody I've forgotten, thank you for your suggestions. I will have a look this week
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    Streeter said:
    Its a good job the UK has a better exchange rate for exporters now if their margin is that low.
    What currency do you think UK->EU tariffs are paid in?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    edited June 2019
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Streeter said:
    You think we should not be a democracy first and foremost?
    We aren't in any relevant sense. We are a representative democracy who have dabbled in direct democracy on half a dozen occasions and should now conclude that it doesn't really work for us.

    You are also wrong to claim that those calling for another vote "disagreed with" the outcome in 2016. I effectively abstained in 2016 and it wasn't until late 2018 that I concluded that brexit was an irretrievable disaster and we needed to think again.

    I don't know if you have noticed what an increasingly isolated voice you are on this forum? It's almost as if the more intelligent former advocates of brexit had realised their mistake and quietly stopped posting about the topic, leaving you looking rather exposed.
    Do not confuse quiet, confident amusement with stupidity. Sweet dreams
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Streeter said:
    You think we should not be a democracy first and foremost?
    Nobody voted for no deal though. Perhaps it might be an idea to check that they haven't changed their mind if this is the Brexit on offer.
    Why? Do we check with them on everything?

    Funny how all the people begging for this to be checked are those who disagreed with the outcome in the original vote and typically also those who disagreed with checking any step of the way towards European integration.
    You don't think that destroying successful businesses employing hundreds or thousands of staff, may give a bit of a pause for thought?
    No. I think its a shame though, if it happens, and we should offer help if we can for transition.
    Can you get that help organised in less than four months?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    viewcode said:

    Streeter said:
    Its a good job the UK has a better exchange rate for exporters now if their margin is that low.
    What currency do you think UK->EU tariffs are paid in?
    What's that got to do with it ?

    My point is comparing the 4% margin now with what they would have been getting with the exchange rate of three years ago.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    Streeter said:
    "I ask you: Do you want total Brexit? If necessary, do you want a Brexit more total and radical than anything that we can even yet imagine?"
    When Margaret Thatcher was elected in 1979 nobody though she would turn a great swathe of the UK into a post-industrial wasteland, and many people were badly hurt by her transition from heavy industry and mining to light industry and services. Yet she was re-elected twice and was PM for over a decade. Don't make the mistake of thinking that just because Brexit causes unpromised destruction it will be punished electorally.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    viewcode said:

    Streeter said:
    Its a good job the UK has a better exchange rate for exporters now if their margin is that low.
    What currency do you think UK->EU tariffs are paid in?
    What's that got to do with it ?

    My point is comparing the 4% margin now with what they would have been getting with the exchange rate of three years ago.
    What proportion of their input cost is in sterling?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Streeter said:
    You think we should not be a democracy first and foremost?
    We aren't in any relevant sense. We are a representative democracy who have dabbled in direct democracy on half a dozen occasions and should now conclude that it doesn't really work for us.

    You are also wrong to claim that those calling for another vote "disagreed with" the outcome in 2016. I effectively abstained in 2016 and it wasn't until late 2018 that I concluded that brexit was an irretrievable disaster and we needed to think again.

    I don't know if you have noticed what an increasingly isolated voice you are on this forum? It's almost as if the more intelligent former advocates of brexit had realised their mistake and quietly stopped posting about the topic, leaving you looking rather exposed.
    I'm not ashamed of thinking for myself and making my own mind up rather than following the crowd.

    I was a Remainer until March 2016. I argued on this very site against Leave. But I eventually read some very convincing arguments and switched. That was fairly unusual.

    I've not read a single original or unique argument since the referendum to make me consider switching back. Every argument made now is a rehash of the same arguments made (often by my former self) before the vote.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    viewcode said:

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Streeter said:
    You think we should not be a democracy first and foremost?
    Nobody voted for no deal though. Perhaps it might be an idea to check that they haven't changed their mind if this is the Brexit on offer.
    Why? Do we check with them on everything?

    Funny how all the people begging for this to be checked are those who disagreed with the outcome in the original vote and typically also those who disagreed with checking any step of the way towards European integration.
    You don't think that destroying successful businesses employing hundreds or thousands of staff, may give a bit of a pause for thought?
    No. I think its a shame though, if it happens, and we should offer help if we can for transition.
    Can you get that help organised in less than four months?
    Government should so it's best as a transition.

    In unforeseen emergencies help can be arranged in days/weeks.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    viewcode said:

    Streeter said:
    Its a good job the UK has a better exchange rate for exporters now if their margin is that low.
    What currency do you think UK->EU tariffs are paid in?
    What's that got to do with it ?

    My point is comparing the 4% margin now with what they would have been getting with the exchange rate of three years ago.
    What proportion of their input cost is in sterling?
    Given that they employ 350 people in Kidderminster I'd imagine a large part of it.

    Of course it should be possible to look at the accounts of this company to see if Hunt's quoting correct numbers.

    My general thought is if its running on only a 4% margin even with 'half the European market sewn up' then its got big problems when the next recession arrives.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    viewcode said:

    Streeter said:
    Its a good job the UK has a better exchange rate for exporters now if their margin is that low.
    What currency do you think UK->EU tariffs are paid in?
    What's that got to do with it ?

    My point is comparing the 4% margin now with what they would have been getting with the exchange rate of three years ago.
    What proportion of their input cost is in sterling?
    Given that they employ 350 people in Kidderminster I'd imagine a large part of it.

    Of course it should be possible to look at the accounts of this company to see if Hunt's quoting correct numbers.

    My general thought is if its running on only a 4% margin even with 'half the European market sewn up' then its got big problems when the next recession arrives.
    It also gives no indication as to what proportion of costs are fixed or variable Or what is cash and what is for accounting purposes.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    viewcode said:

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Streeter said:
    You think we should not be a democracy first and foremost?
    Nobody voted for no deal though. Perhaps it might be an idea to check that they haven't changed their mind if this is the Brexit on offer.
    Why? Do we check with them on everything?

    Funny how all the people begging for this to be checked are those who disagreed with the outcome in the original vote and typically also those who disagreed with checking any step of the way towards European integration.
    You don't think that destroying successful businesses employing hundreds or thousands of staff, may give a bit of a pause for thought?
    No. I think its a shame though, if it happens, and we should offer help if we can for transition.
    Can you get that help organised in less than four months?
    Government should so it's best as a transition.

    In unforeseen emergencies help can be arranged in days/weeks.
    In specific cases, yes. But everywhere at once? That's when things break.

    In radiation poisoning, there's a thing called the "Walking Ghost" phase. If you are exposed to too much radiation, the chromosomes in your cells get destroyed and your cells can no longer reproduce. The subject feels better briefly, but parts of the body begin to die, in the order of their cell life. Bone marrow and mucous membranes die first, then the colon linings, then the skin. The victim dies horribly and attempts at a cure are pointless as the body can no longer function. If you want nightmares, google "Hisashi Ouchi"

    You can avoid this by limiting the exposure or taking precautions. Brexit need not be painful, and even no-deal is survivable. Preparation and time and a plan is all that's required. But running at it and assuming everything would be hunky-dory and stuff gets better by itself is foolish.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    The Daily Mail has finally figured out which side of the culture war it's readership is on.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    HYUFD said:
    I WANT THAT FURNITURE! GIMME!!

    (sorry, I'm a sucker for old granny furniture).

    Although that carpet is probably unrefurbishable... :(
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Meanwhile, unalloyed good news from Turkey. Erdogan's attempt to overturn the election of an opposition Mayor of Istanbul has spectacularly backfired. Imamoglu extended his win, gaining 54% of the vote. To his credit, the AKP candidate has conceded defeat and congratulated him.
    Even more impressive, 8% was the midpoint of polling predictions! Polling success klaxon!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:
    I WANT THAT FURNITURE! GIMME!!

    (sorry, I'm a sucker for old granny furniture).

    Although that carpet is probably unrefurbishable... :(
    If I understand Antiques Roadshow correctly, which is not a given, you can't give away brown furniture any more.

    https://www.ft.com/content/15a569ca-d1a8-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    alex. said:

    I think we'll find the vast majority of Tory members think having a blazing row with your partner is not enough reason to be voted against. They'll also think those saying Boris should explain the row, including Jeremy Hunt, are paying little or no heed to Carrie's rights of privacy.



    What Hunt is really asking for is Johnson to say what his political position is on anything. On virtually every major issue he is sitting on the fence. With the exception of Brexit, where he seems to believe that personal willpower is enough.
    It is not simply that Boris is sitting on the fence. In many cases, following Trump, he is on both sides of the fence at once.

    And the graph at the top seems to show Boris's implied probability of winning is down about 10 per cent since the story broke. Is that holding up well, or is it just that he had an enormous lead to start with?

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Goodness knows I'm no fan of Johnson's - but Carole is telling porkies:

    Bannon then says: “I’ve been talking to him all weekend about this speech. We went back and forth over the text.”

    She heard a the that I didn't.

    Make your own minds up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/22/video-reveals-steve-bannon-links-to-boris-johnson?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Once again, Carole has let her enthusiasm run ahead of the facts.....
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2019

    Goodness knows I'm no fan of Johnson's - but Carole is telling porkies:

    Bannon then says: “I’ve been talking to him all weekend about this speech. We went back and forth over the text.”

    She heard a the that I didn't.

    Make your own minds up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/22/video-reveals-steve-bannon-links-to-boris-johnson?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Once again, Carole has let her enthusiasm run ahead of the facts.....

    The Guardian says: back and forth on text. The video has Bannon saying both on text and over text, without a "the" but I can't see the "the" in the article either. Are you sure you linked to the right one?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Goodness knows I'm no fan of Johnson's - but Carole is telling porkies:

    Bannon then says: “I’ve been talking to him all weekend about this speech. We went back and forth over the text.”

    She heard a the that I didn't.

    Make your own minds up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/22/video-reveals-steve-bannon-links-to-boris-johnson?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Once again, Carole has let her enthusiasm run ahead of the facts.....

    The Guardian says: back and forth on text. The video has Bannon saying both on text and over text, without a "the" but I can't see the "the" in the article either. Are you sure you linked to the right one?
    Central section in this block of the text:

    The first clip shows Bannon reading a front page story in the Daily Telegraph about Johnson’s resignation speech with the headline ‘Let’s Make Britain Great Again’. He says: “Today we are going to see if Boris Johnson tries to overthrow the British government. He’s going to give a speech in the Commons.”

    Bannon then says: “I’ve been talking to him all weekend about this speech. We went back and forth over the text.”

    Klayman asks him if they’ve been speaking on the phone and he says: “Talked to him initially over the phone then it’s just easier to go back and forth on text. It’s just easier. I’ve been telling him one of my recommendations is that he gave one of the most important political speeches of 2016. Was his closing speech, a three-to-five-minute speech in June 2016, his closing argument on national TV for the Leave campaign ... And it was magnificent.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2019

    Goodness knows I'm no fan of Johnson's - but Carole is telling porkies:

    Bannon then says: “I’ve been talking to him all weekend about this speech. We went back and forth over the text.”

    She heard a the that I didn't.

    Make your own minds up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/22/video-reveals-steve-bannon-links-to-boris-johnson?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Once again, Carole has let her enthusiasm run ahead of the facts.....

    The Guardian says: back and forth on text. The video has Bannon saying both on text and over text, without a "the" but I can't see the "the" in the article either. Are you sure you linked to the right one?
    Central section in this block of the text:

    The first clip shows Bannon reading a front page story in the Daily Telegraph about Johnson’s resignation speech with the headline ‘Let’s Make Britain Great Again’. He says: “Today we are going to see if Boris Johnson tries to overthrow the British government. He’s going to give a speech in the Commons.”

    Bannon then says: “I’ve been talking to him all weekend about this speech. We went back and forth over the text.”

    Klayman asks him if they’ve been speaking on the phone and he says: “Talked to him initially over the phone then it’s just easier to go back and forth on text. It’s just easier. I’ve been telling him one of my recommendations is that he gave one of the most important political speeches of 2016. Was his closing speech, a three-to-five-minute speech in June 2016, his closing argument on national TV for the Leave campaign ... And it was magnificent.
    OK I'd followed the link in there to the Observer article.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/22/boris-johnson-steve-bannon-texts-foreign-secretary-resignation-speech

    Anyway you are right but it looks more like bad subbing, with that one-line paragraph rather oddly inserted as a teaser for or summary of the very next paragraph.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Goodness knows I'm no fan of Johnson's - but Carole is telling porkies:

    Bannon then says: “I’ve been talking to him all weekend about this speech. We went back and forth over the text.”

    She heard a the that I didn't.

    Make your own minds up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/22/video-reveals-steve-bannon-links-to-boris-johnson?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Once again, Carole has let her enthusiasm run ahead of the facts.....

    The Guardian says: back and forth on text. The video has Bannon saying both on text and over text, without a "the" but I can't see the "the" in the article either. Are you sure you linked to the right one?
    Central section in this block of the text:

    The first clip shows Bannon reading a front page story in the Daily Telegraph about Johnson’s resignation speech with the headline ‘Let’s Make Britain Great Again’. He says: “Today we are going to see if Boris Johnson tries to overthrow the British government. He’s going to give a speech in the Commons.”

    Bannon then says: “I’ve been talking to him all weekend about this speech. We went back and forth over the text.”

    Klayman asks him if they’ve been speaking on the phone and he says: “Talked to him initially over the phone then it’s just easier to go back and forth on text. It’s just easier. I’ve been telling him one of my recommendations is that he gave one of the most important political speeches of 2016. Was his closing speech, a three-to-five-minute speech in June 2016, his closing argument on national TV for the Leave campaign ... And it was magnificent.
    OK I'd followed the link in there to the Observer article.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/22/boris-johnson-steve-bannon-texts-foreign-secretary-resignation-speech

    Anyway you are right but it looks more like bad subbing, with that one-line paragraph rather oddly inserted as a teaser for or summary of the very next paragraph.
    It might be if Carole had replied to Evan Davis tweet making this point now nearly 24 hours ago. But she hasn't - just continued to complain about why the BBC aren't carrying her story.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Goodness knows I'm no fan of Johnson's - but Carole is telling porkies:

    Bannon then says: “I’ve been talking to him all weekend about this speech. We went back and forth over the text.”

    She heard a the that I didn't.

    Make your own minds up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/22/video-reveals-steve-bannon-links-to-boris-johnson?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Once again, Carole has let her enthusiasm run ahead of the facts.....

    The Guardian says: back and forth on text. The video has Bannon saying both on text and over text, without a "the" but I can't see the "the" in the article either. Are you sure you linked to the right one?
    Central section in this block of the text:

    The first clip shows Bannon reading a front page story in the Daily Telegraph about Johnson’s resignation speech with the headline ‘Let’s Make Britain Great Again’. He says: “Today we are going to see if Boris Johnson tries to overthrow the British government. He’s going to give a speech in the Commons.”

    Bannon then says: “I’ve been talking to him all weekend about this speech. We went back and forth over the text.”

    Klayman asks him if they’ve been speaking on the phone and he says: “Talked to him initially over the phone then it’s just easier to go back and forth on text. It’s just easier. I’ve been telling him one of my recommendations is that he gave one of the most important political speeches of 2016. Was his closing speech, a three-to-five-minute speech in June 2016, his closing argument on national TV for the Leave campaign ... And it was magnificent.
    OK I'd followed the link in there to the Observer article.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/22/boris-johnson-steve-bannon-texts-foreign-secretary-resignation-speech

    Anyway you are right but it looks more like bad subbing, with that one-line paragraph rather oddly inserted as a teaser for or summary of the very next paragraph.
    It might be if Carole had replied to Evan Davis tweet making this point now nearly 24 hours ago. But she hasn't - just continued to complain about why the BBC aren't carrying her story.
    I'm afraid I do not follow Twitter but in any case, I am not really sure what the fuss is about on either side. I can't see what difference it makes when, where or even whether Boris dealt with Bannon during the referendum in which we already know Bannon has links to Farage, except that it adds vaguely to the sense that Boris is not answering questions (on anything). Perhaps things will be clearer in the morning.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:
    I WANT THAT FURNITURE! GIMME!!

    (sorry, I'm a sucker for old granny furniture).

    Although that carpet is probably unrefurbishable... :(
    If I understand Antiques Roadshow correctly, which is not a given, you can't give away brown furniture any more.

    https://www.ft.com/content/15a569ca-d1a8-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377
    I understand wealthy people have different tastes. But I can furnish an entire flat from your local British Heart Foundation Furniture and Electrical store. You can pick up some nice stuff in there, and there are such things as French polishers... :)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540



    I'm afraid I do not follow Twitter but in any case, I am not really sure what the fuss is about on either side. I can't see what difference it makes when, where or even whether Boris dealt with Bannon during the referendum in which we already know Bannon has links to Farage, except that it adds vaguely to the sense that Boris is not answering questions (on anything). Perhaps things will be clearer in the morning.

    Evans point is that the text implies close involvement in its drafting - not supported by the video. While discussing things by text is much looser.

    Not for the first time, Carole has over-egged her pudding.
This discussion has been closed.