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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final step. Why the leader of the Conservative party does
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final step. Why the leader of the Conservative party does not automatically become Prime Minister
Professor Brian Cox was once asked to explain string theory in a sentence. His answer: “It’s probably not true.” The same one sentence explanation could be used to explain the theory that the next Conservative leader might not become Prime Minister. But since it’s being talked about quite a bit, let’s have a look at why.
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Where Alastair writes 'To date, no one has ever gone broke betting on the Conservative Remainers failing to follow through.'
I could argue when the crucial moment came last March Tory Remainers did follow through.
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/uk-parliament-seizes-control-of-brexit-options
The Tories need a hard wet.
https://twitter.com/coachsoho/status/1143151662170804226?s=21
The branching moment was that Milliband did not resign the Labour leadership in 2015.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48742981
' "Change UK is happy to confirm that we are in talks about a joint independent Remain candidate in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election," a spokesman for the party said. '
Come off it. The Lib Dems held this seat until 2015. There is not the slightest chance that they will, or should, stand down in favour of an "independent Remain candidate". Such a banner would probably lose votes in Radnorshire, not gain them.
It's time - long past time - for Soubry's lot to give up.
Will the Brexit Party stand?
It’s not like a backbencher earns huge amounts of money.
It says Plaid Cymru are in talks to field a joint Remain candidate, and they want something in return.
(I suspect the LibDems think they have no need to grant anything in return, so it will come to nothing).
My best guess is that if he becomes PM his only recourse is to call a Brexit election asap and take his chance before a VONC is called on him. Thus he keeps such initiative as is possible - which is not much.
Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.
As for Boris' private life, I agree that everyone is entitled not to answer questions about these things. However it is not consequence free. People are still entitled to draw their own conclusions from the evidence about his character, and to draw conclusions from his refusal to answer questions.
Seems unlikely but who knows
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1143220789237489665
Let no man stand between an MP and his August holiday!
By now bookings will have been made. Spouse and kids excited etc etc.
May even be for the best, let voters decide if they still want Brexit Deal or No Deal with a Boris majority or BINO, EUref2 or even revoke with a Corbyn minority government
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1143228556752949248
Many pensioners go to warmer climes for the winter.
Most people without children will go June July September October because it’s cheaper.
Half term is holiday season as can be seen by price hikes
People go away at Easter
So there really is apart from MPs themselves not that many who are rigidly tied into August. It’s not as if it’s frequently too hot to campaign, the Spanish had a GE a week before Christmas so time to ditch this fallacy that August is a no no.
Adam Price clearly says he wants something in return.
(I am not entirely sure that the Plaid Cymru and LibDems voters are quite so willing to be parcelled up as gifts by their leaders).
I tried to make the point here, although used the wrong example with the YouGov as they WERE filtering out the politically engaged, and were also stunningly accurate
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/2017/05/the-problem-with-opinion-polls-polls.html
Do some BF punters think the 1922 would put Grove as leader if both Bozza and Hunt dropped out?
Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance
So either Bannon is lying, or Boris is lying, or Farage is lying.
In this circumstance, at least, they can’t all be lying.
I found no evidence of him ever saying the first rule of politics is being able to count, and every source that mentions the quote seems to be British.
The last time I investigated this I came away with the suspicion it's a misquote/misattribution, potentially mentioned in the context of George Osborne who is a well know LBJ fan, which British political journalists have found very handy in the context of tight parliamentary arithmetic and therefore have kept recirculating.
It is a great "rule" and it would be good if someone could figure out where it originated so that its creator can receive appropriate credit in future! But I really don't think it is LBJ.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1143234837697839104
I don't know what they would do in that situation, but that it was not what happened last time is neither here nor there it appears.
So, the voter base of the two parties are very different. I think the efficiency of any vote transfer will be low (under 20 per cent).
I don't see much in it for either party, tbh.
IIRC the quote was made said by LBJ when he was Senate majority leader.
I regularly vote Plaid Cymru, and nothing would make me vote for Jane Dodds in B&R.
Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote
Campaigning in August would be a nonsense
What values underpin their policies?
To what extent does brexit support those values?
I’m actually interested because many years ago I believed in equality of opportunity, free enterprise and separation of the courts from the legislature. I see very little of any of that these days
As an LD Remainer I would rather Boris, as best placed to destroy Brexit, but a book is a book!