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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though August 1st will be the date of the Brecon a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though August 1st will be the date of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election
The signs are that today will see the writ being moved for the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election to fill the vacancy created by the success of the recall petition that has seen the sitting Conservative MP, Chris Davies, forced out of his seat. This follows his conviction and sentencing for expenses fraud. The date looks set to be August 1st bang in the middle of the holiday season.
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Had he been jailed like Onasanya it may have been different but he faced a fine and community service instead and has faced his punishment
Onasanya and O'Mara great examples of candidates parachuted in - imprisonment and expulsion. Jezza's cunning plan could backfire again for Labour.
If recalls are routinely successful will this
a) make people less eager to sign them as they 'can leave it to others'?
b) make Parliament raise the bar from 10%?
c) make MPs behave better to avoid them?
One could even argue that he should stand as the recall process is arguably a vote for reconfirmation - "given the events since the last election, do you still have trust in your MP".
Arguably the process should be:
1) petition for recall
2) vote of (no?) confidence
3) (if necessary) - by election with new candidates.
Problem (other than cost) being how you set the rules/levels for vote of confidence. Given that they may have originally been elected on sub 50% support.
On the wider point on whether it was sensible for Tories to reselect him - maybe they think that their best chance is to make the election about whether the crime is sufficient to justify him losing his job, as opposed to wider issues.
I'm not sure this decision has much to do with Jezza, happy to be corrected though...
https://www.newspostleader.co.uk/news/politics/ronnie-campbell-longest-serving-blyth-valley-mp-will-stand-down-at-next-election-314301
The article entitled "Race is On to Find our New MP' looks a cracker. I think I may have guessed that the initials of the hero of the article may be ... oh, I hate to spoil it for you ... JD.
I do hope there is one of those brilliant LibDem photos. It should show Jane Dodo surrounded by 10 smiling LibDem activists from Richmond & Barnes, all beaming inanely at the pages in a yellow clipboard, and captioned "Candidate Jane Dodo explains how a People's Vote will deliver for the people of Brecon and Radnorshire."
And then the there will be a series of newspaper reports with the hero of the hour centerstage: "Jane Dodo demands action for Mums on new Zebra Crossing", "Jane Dodo wants new litter bins for Brecon" and "Jane Dodo Slams Powys Council over Toilets".
Ending up of course with the famous bar char, using the special LibDem mathematics that scales up the yellows, and scales down everyone else.
https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/1143427439751761920
People with nothing to lose are much more likely to take leaps of faith. The SDP was formed in large part because many MPs feared deselection.
On Davies's case, it depends. I'd expect voters working for big companies would see this as a sacking offence (look up your own employer's rules on expense claims and forged receipts!) but in a farming seat where most can't claim expenses in the first place, voters might take the view that Davies was owed the money anyway and just took what was his.
ETA the fact Davies is standing suggests the latter interpretation is correct, at least in the local party HQ.
It is not a particular shocking retirement announcement.
Same for Campbell.
The mind baffles.
Perhaps a fairer way of doing a recall would be to have 2 options on the ballot: I wish to recall, I do not wish to recall, with a recall succeeding if it clears 10% and has more than those saying do not wish to recall.
The Tories could well struggle to make second... personally I think there is money in third or even fourth...
Seriously... does the Conservative Party have a death wish?
Another new candidate needed for Labour.
It is of course a big challenge to get 10% of anyone to do anything.
My interest this year was on "On va tout peter" by Lech Kowalski
I used to work at the place involved and know most of the characters so Im waiting for it to hit the screens
Campbell is an old left winger too. It can't go worse than it is. Well, yes, maybe, it can.
In 30 years as MP, this is Campbell's claim to fame: https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/north-mp-hot-under-collar-1465910
People say he’s funny etc but I’ve bever really seen it... Farage actually has the common touch and is quite sharp and funny in interviews. A much better candidate for PM than anything the Tories can come up with
Good to see the recall process working as intended though.
Who will be the most surprising name?
However, Blyth Valley must have been very close given the Northumberland totals
But, it is true that, given the munificence of MP expenses fraud, this is a small sum. It is smaller than Lembit had to return for his fucking mammoth plasma screen TV, for example.
Davies has been made an example of. It is a good thing, as we should encourage probity in our MPs.
But it is possible to feel some sympathy for him at a personal level, given what many other MPs have gotten away with.
Let's hope that Jane Dodo does not do a Sarah Olney with her election expenses.
a 'moderate' surrently in ShadCab - not many of those but maybe Trickett or Butler (and moderate is pushing it!)
a Corbynite of the old school variety, probably a bit more likely given they are physically older/in parliament for longer
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt10228214/
Ronnie Campbell fits the second group. But as you say, he is old. He announced retirement already in 2015 but then the snap election took place and re-stood.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Can-You-Brexit-Without-Breaking-ebook/dp/B07BN3ZQVN/
With the Tories using the postal votes the most it probably indicates Davies is toastier than Toasty McToastface.
Daily Mirror - "Bonking Boris Honeymoon Blues"
The Sun - "GOTCHA Boris"
Daily Express - "Carrie On Boris"
Daily Mail - "Voters Scream Not Boris"
Daily Telegraph - "Boris Not For Turning"
The Times - "Boris Wiff-Waffed At Welsh Poll"
Slough Observer -"What An Eton Mess"
Daily Star - "Boris Eastenders Sex Story"
Political Betting -"Boris Pineapple Pizza Poll Pounding"
Guardian - "Boris High Court Recording Injunction Falls On Deaf Ears"
It is usually takes place mid-way the Parliamentary term. Always been since 1997. So I am not sure why "anonymous former minister" is spinning it like it was something totally unexpected.
Only thing changed is that the trigger ballot will be less protective than before (1/3 threshold of party branches or 1/3 of affiliates for open selection rather than 1/2 summing together affiliates and branches) but that was known since Conference 2018.
They just finished the reselection process for London Assembly (2020 election), PCC (2020) and Welsh Assembly (2021). And they are doing the reselection ballots for Andy Burnham and the Liverpool Metro Mayor now.
That's if he gets to the second week!
Be interested to see what he says. But Boris's might be such a short premiership that it makes no material difference.
NEC meeting January 2013: "Sitting MPs will be asked to declare their intentions by the end of 2013, with most trigger ballots early in 2014"
But in November 2013 meeting: "Trigger ballots were underway for MPs seeking to stand again."
NEC meeting July 2006: "MPs will be asked to say whether they wish to stand again by 15 September, with reselections starting in October. "
Timing for reselection looks the sane as usual.
The different thing is that MPs are asked to decide to re-stand or retire in 2 weeks rather than 2 months.
However, as in the past, they usually say "I will re-stand", get reselected and then retire anyway.
The earlier expenses cases (mostly) concerned payments which were knowingly made by the HoC not because MPs presented false documents or did anything criminal but because the system was too lax and allowed outrageous claims to go through without being questioned. There were a few criminal cases, such as Eliot Morley, but these were a minority.
Broadly on topic, the problem with the recall Act is within Section 1 it equates expenses fraud to criminal acts which dictate a custodial sentence of less than a year and suspension from the Commons for, as I recall, a period longer than 14 days.
People looking from outside might find the juxtaposition of these types of wrongdoing curious but I suppose for MPs themselves and especially in the light of the scandal of 2009, it was seen as vital to treat expenses fraud with the utmost seriousness.
I entirely agree and accept what Chris Davies has been convicted of is wholly insubstantial in comparison to what Fiona Onasanya did but as the Recall law Section 1 stands, they are comparable. I presume the threshold of 10% is an attempt to ensure the most trivial of offences didn't trigger a by-election but the fact remains well-organised opposition party machines and a little local indignation can go a long way if you only need 10%.
I recollect Morley, Devine, Moran, Chaytor, MacShane and Illsley, all Labour, all convicted, and mostly carted off to jail.
I think Moran cried a lot in court, and was let off a custodial sentence.
Perhaps had Fiona Onasanya pleaded guilty - on the basis of perverting her brother's justice rather than her own - then there might just have been a way out of it for her. Given what's turned up on the new Peterborough MP that might have been better for Labour.
The intention appears to have been to restrict access to the information to those needing it for a fraud investigation, rather than the wider access granted for elections where political parties (or anyone else) is able to go and see who has voted and who has not, for a period of six months after the election.
Chortle ..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl_XOn5F6WE
There were a couple of Tory peers as well, if memory serves.
I am in favour of high standards, so if the Davies case stops fiddling MPs, that is all to the good.
Aitken, Bell and Hamilton weren't shining examples of parliamentary rectitude either, were they?
MPs work for the public. The public have no natural way of sacking them until the next election which can be five years away. Expense fraud is a sackable offence in virtually every job. The public absolutely need a way of sacking MPs who fiddle their expenses.
MPs are well paid with generous expense allowances. That he chose to fiddle them so soon after the major expenses scandal shows he either thinks he is above the rules or just plain greedy without any morals. Neither is a trait I would like in my MP.
It's a case of 'he-said', 'she-said'. Even if she came out to say: "It was all my fault!", then it's far too late now, and it'll look just like a cover-up.
This is just more tinkerbell brexit.
Moran pulled a Colditz, frankly, and was given leniency due to mental health issues.
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1143442639024459777
Still a useless twat, though.