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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile in the leadership battle in the party that won four

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile in the leadership battle in the party that won four times as many MEPs and more than twice the CON vote last month

Inevitably the Tory leadership contest is totally dwarfing coverage of other political developments including the battle for the leadership of the party that totally out-performed the Tories in last month’s Euro elections. Yet given the parliamentary situation the outcome of this postal members’ ballot could be crucial.

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    First?
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,887
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Me as Prime Minister? God No.

    Dictator/Tyrant of the UK? Hell yeah. I'd have Brexit sorted out by next summer.

    "Next summer" !!!!!!!!!

    Dear god, you're just Theresa May in trouser flares, floral shirts and vegan sandals !!! :astonished:
    I've never worn flares or sandals in my life.
    what about lime green leather trousers ?
    Never worn lime green trousers, never worn leather trousers.
    youve shattered my illusions, delete that post forthwith :smiley:
    Well this is the latest work shirt I've bought.



    Am toying with this one.



    I've made quite the impression with my new employers.
    Are you a corporate buyer modelling for the visually impaired ?!?
    No, I have to supervise a bunch of bankers (sic).
    I thought the collectve noun for bankers is "a wunch".
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Could be a nail biter in the cricket
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Doof, surely it's a fleece of bankers?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Could be a nail biter in the cricket

    Can't be sure if 285 is a good score till both teams have batted. It'd be easier if Roy was opening though ><
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,023
    FPT
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Really? It was originally claimed there were a million people on the march. According to Fullfact that is now down to between 312,000 and 400,000. That is what I call revising down.

    Fullfact are basing that on very flawed methodology that assumes a static crowd all assembled at the same time, and then goes on to under-estimate both the crowd density and the area of the march (which wasn't just confined to the official route). Their figures are not credible.
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,435
    Who of Jo and Ed will be a better counterpoint to Hunt/Johnson, Farage and Corbyn?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    edited June 2019
    They’d both do a good job.

    I’d probably go for Swinson because of my book she might do better in Scotland if Corbyn keeps up his ambiguity on Brexit.

    There’s a group anti Brexit and anti Scottish Independence voters that’s looking for someone to support.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Could be a nail biter in the cricket

    Can't be sure if 285 is a good score till both teams have batted. It'd be easier if Roy was opening though ><</p>
    Agreed, a confident start of 54-0 after 10 would have (and will) settle nerves.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    Heidi Allen not joining Lib Dems.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1143508895706636288
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Ed Davey has the encumberance of having accepted a knighthood. The public expect Lib Dems to be above accepting trinkets for dong bugger all. That's for second rate Tories like Redwood and Bill Cash and various otherwise useless back benchers.
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    Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    This is what's driven Boris to do BBC/talkRADIO/LBC in the past 24 hours. I agree he was starting to look very evasive:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1143510834410414082

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    Harris_Tweed said:

    This is what's driven Boris to do BBC/talkRADIO/LBC in the past 24 hours. I agree he was starting to look very evasive:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1143510834410414082

    Don’t do this to me.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Tweed, still hiding from Hunt, though.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,932
    edited June 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    This is what's driven Boris to do BBC/talkRADIO/LBC in the past 24 hours. I agree he was starting to look very evasive:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1143510834410414082

    Don’t do this to me.
    Remember the rule - lay Tory Party leader favourite...
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I give it a week tops before Johnson pulls out.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    James Vince = Brexit
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    This is what's driven Boris to do BBC/talkRADIO/LBC in the past 24 hours. I agree he was starting to look very evasive:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1143510834410414082

    Don’t do this to me.
    Remember the rule - lay the favourite...
    Careful, you'll end up triggering some people with that post.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    Harris_Tweed said:

    This is what's driven Boris to do BBC/talkRADIO/LBC in the past 24 hours. I agree he was starting to look very evasive:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1143510834410414082

    Do like this reply

    https://twitter.com/sabaranis1/status/1143511713834307589
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Talking of second rate MPs why hasn't the Carl Beech scandal ended the career of Tom Watson who called one of his falsely accused victims 'one of the most evil people I've ever met'? Or Guido for that matter who fed the unfounded allegations to all the morons who read him?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,023
    https://twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/1143451283635838977
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    Roger said:

    Talking of second rate MPs why hasn't the Carl Beech scandal ended the career of Tom Watson who called one of his falsely accused victims 'one of the most evil people I've ever met'? Or Guido for that matter who fed the unfounded allegations to all the morons who read him?

    Carl Beech is our Titus Oates.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Oh.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,779
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    This is what's driven Boris to do BBC/talkRADIO/LBC in the past 24 hours. I agree he was starting to look very evasive:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1143510834410414082

    Don’t do this to me.
    Well that may be a pile of BS, but it does give me an incentive to not spoil the ballot paper. Jeremy 'Unt has just got himself one extra vote. The idea of helping to burst the bubble of the incompetent and dishonest Mr Johnson is too pleasant to turn down. Paradoxically Brexit is probably more likely to happen with the much more competent Hunt, but I will have to live with that.
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    Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    This is what's driven Boris to do BBC/talkRADIO/LBC in the past 24 hours. I agree he was starting to look very evasive:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1143510834410414082

    Do like this reply

    https://twitter.com/sabaranis1/status/1143511713834307589
    I tend to agree Boris is so far ahead that he only needs a touch on the tiller to make sure he doesn't balls it up. I still wouldn't bet against him.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1143476272850505745
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    Roger said:

    Ed Davey has the encumberance of having accepted a knighthood. The public expect Lib Dems to be above accepting trinkets for dong bugger all. That's for second rate Tories like Redwood and Bill Cash and various otherwise useless back benchers.

    Agreed. Back in the day Labour used to have a policy of not giving honours for political services and it's disappointing that Corbyn has not seen fit to stop giving knighthoods to deadbeat timeservers such as Kevin Barron or Alan Campbell.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. 565, nice thought but I'll believe it when it happens.
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    Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Tweed, still hiding from Hunt, though.

    Agree with that too - the one-to-one media interviews (especially concentrated in 24 hours) are to create the impression of being open for business to media requests... precisely without having to screw up live during a tango with Jez.

    That's the touch on the tiller he's judged he needs, without the screeching handbrake turn of turning up at Sky tonight (at the risk of mixing my vehicular metaphors).
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Does Boris finish making the model bus by painting a lie on it?
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,779
    anothernick said:

    Roger said:

    Ed Davey has the encumberance of having accepted a knighthood. The public expect Lib Dems to be above accepting trinkets for dong bugger all. That's for second rate Tories like Redwood and Bill Cash and various otherwise useless back benchers.

    Agreed. Back in the day Labour used to have a policy of not giving honours for political services and it's disappointing that Corbyn has not seen fit to stop giving knighthoods to deadbeat timeservers such as Kevin Barron or Alan Campbell.
    Knighthoods are pointless, but generally pretty harmless. Meaningless and meritless unless I am offered one for some reason
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,779
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Does Boris finish making the model bus by painting a lie on it?

    That's quite good!
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,245
    edited June 2019
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    This is what's driven Boris to do BBC/talkRADIO/LBC in the past 24 hours. I agree he was starting to look very evasive:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1143510834410414082

    Don’t do this to me.
    Well that may be a pile of BS, but it does give me an incentive to not spoil the ballot paper. Jeremy 'Unt has just got himself one extra vote. The idea of helping to burst the bubble of the incompetent and dishonest Mr Johnson is too pleasant to turn down. Paradoxically Brexit is probably more likely to happen with the much more competent Hunt, but I will have to live with that.
    Yes that is the irony. Hunt has now rowed in behind "Brexit must happen deal or no deal" so the choice is to vote for an incompetent who might easily flip-flop and, even today's interviews notwithstanding, not brexit by Oct 31st or alternatively voting for as you say for a more competent Hunt who probably would try to Brexit by then, lost jobs and all.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    How profitable to level stakes would following all of Christopher Hope's hunches be over the years ?
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    Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    anothernick said:

    Roger said:

    Ed Davey has the encumberance of having accepted a knighthood. The public expect Lib Dems to be above accepting trinkets for dong bugger all. That's for second rate Tories like Redwood and Bill Cash and various otherwise useless back benchers.

    Agreed. Back in the day Labour used to have a policy of not giving honours for political services and it's disappointing that Corbyn has not seen fit to stop giving knighthoods to deadbeat timeservers such as Kevin Barron or Alan Campbell.
    I suspect the people bothered by it are not the ones likely to be switching to Lib Dem. In the case of wet Tories, it's probably a massive badge of reassurance.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Pulpstar said:

    How profitable to level stakes would following all of Christopher Hope's hunches be over the years ?

    Better or worse than Dan Hodges ?!
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,918
    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Really? It was originally claimed there were a million people on the march. According to Fullfact that is now down to between 312,000 and 400,000. That is what I call revising down.

    Fullfact are basing that on very flawed methodology that assumes a static crowd all assembled at the same time, and then goes on to under-estimate both the crowd density and the area of the march (which wasn't just confined to the official route). Their figures are not credible.
    They are very credible based as they are on well known and much used methodology backed by case studies. That is why they are always preferred over the unsubstantiated claims of organisers.

    At the time I said it didn't matter how many people were on the march as they still represent a tiny minority of the population and would have included many ineligible to vote anyway. I stick to that but love seeing you squirm over your attempts to inflate numbers as some sort of support for your idiotic claims.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Harris_Tweed said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    This is what's driven Boris to do BBC/talkRADIO/LBC in the past 24 hours. I agree he was starting to look very evasive:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1143510834410414082

    Do like this reply

    https://twitter.com/sabaranis1/status/1143511713834307589
    I tend to agree Boris is so far ahead that he only needs a touch on the tiller to make sure he doesn't balls it up. I still wouldn't bet against him.
    He's still the favourite, but I it'd be hilarious if the man whose main (sole?) USP is that he's a winner lost the unlosable election.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How profitable to level stakes would following all of Christopher Hope's hunches be over the years ?

    Better or worse than Dan Hodges ?!
    Better
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,779
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Does Boris finish making the model bus by painting a lie on it?

    That's quite good!
    "Boris tells 350 lies a week to the British People. Let's send him to a remote island somewhere instead"
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    A lucky £2 on England at 2-1 :D
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    Talking of second rate MPs why hasn't the Carl Beech scandal ended the career of Tom Watson who called one of his falsely accused victims 'one of the most evil people I've ever met'? Or Guido for that matter who fed the unfounded allegations to all the morons who read him?

    Carl Beech is our Titus Oates.
    Yes he is but three hundred years later wouldn't you expect the great and the good to show a little more due diligence than those buying Titus's nonsense?
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    This is what's driven Boris to do BBC/talkRADIO/LBC in the past 24 hours. I agree he was starting to look very evasive:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1143510834410414082

    Don’t do this to me.
    Remember the rule - lay Tory Party leader favourite...
    Sounds like quite a few already have :-)
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,779
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/1143451283635838977

    Yes, but it is probably beyond the wit of a lazy fool who once said that it was similar to the congestion charge.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,779
    Stereotomy said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    This is what's driven Boris to do BBC/talkRADIO/LBC in the past 24 hours. I agree he was starting to look very evasive:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1143510834410414082

    Do like this reply

    https://twitter.com/sabaranis1/status/1143511713834307589
    I tend to agree Boris is so far ahead that he only needs a touch on the tiller to make sure he doesn't balls it up. I still wouldn't bet against him.
    He's still the favourite, but I it'd be hilarious if the man whose main (sole?) USP is that he's a winner lost the unlosable election.
    hehe, I hadn't thought of that, it would make it even more sweet. I know quite few members I think I can persuade to vote Hunt
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    F1: Lowe leaves Williams:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/48759560

    Given how bad the car is, after a torrid time last year too, not surprising.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,964
    anothernick said:

    Roger said:

    Ed Davey has the encumberance of having accepted a knighthood. The public expect Lib Dems to be above accepting trinkets for dong bugger all. That's for second rate Tories like Redwood and Bill Cash and various otherwise useless back benchers.

    Agreed. Back in the day Labour used to have a policy of not giving honours for political services and it's disappointing that Corbyn has not seen fit to stop giving knighthoods to deadbeat timeservers such as Kevin Barron or Alan Campbell.
    Brian Donohoe's knighthood was the most egregious. Apart from his manifest deadbeatness, he's a complete ****.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,900
    Do we lay Hunt if he goes favourite?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/tomcopley/status/1143491986768502786
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    SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238
    "the party that won four times as many MEPs and more than twice the CON vote"

    Always good to see PR systems working flawlessly...
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    TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    Theuniondivvie said:

    anothernick said:

    Roger said:

    Ed Davey has the encumberance of having accepted a knighthood. The public expect Lib Dems to be above accepting trinkets for dong bugger all. That's for second rate Tories like Redwood and Bill Cash and various otherwise useless back benchers.

    Agreed. Back in the day Labour used to have a policy of not giving honours for political services and it's disappointing that Corbyn has not seen fit to stop giving knighthoods to deadbeat timeservers such as Kevin Barron or Alan Campbell.
    Brian Donohoe's knighthood was the most egregious. Apart from his manifest deadbeatness, he's a complete ****.
    Sir Egg Brian Harold The Flash Donohoe?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Donohoe
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    TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/1143451283635838977

    Yes, but it is probably beyond the wit of a lazy fool who once said that it was similar to the congestion charge.
    It does have physical checks but, if you drive from Geneva Airport into France, it is fairly seamless. There are plenty of people who live around Annecy who commute into Geneva every day for that same reason.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    isam said:

    Do we lay Hunt if he goes favourite?

    He'll have won if he goes favourite I expect.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1143518246768926725
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    I stand by my earlier comment, England are are a bigger embarrassment than Boris Johnson.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    England out to 4-1, must mean...
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372
    Someone in the previous thread suggested that the Aussies might be choking....
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Isam, I will be (I'm greener on Hunt than Boris).
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: Lowe leaves Williams:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/48759560

    Given how bad the car is, after a torrid time last year too, not surprising.

    There is a question of what might be cause, and what effect.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/8037/scorecard/1022365/england-vs-australia-10th-match-group-a-icc-champions-trophy-2017
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    Nigelb said:

    Someone in the previous thread suggested that the Aussies might be choking....

    A Brexiteer/No Dealer said that.

    They are always wrong.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/1143451283635838977

    Yes, but it is probably beyond the wit of a lazy fool who once said that it was similar to the congestion charge.
    It does have physical checks but, if you drive from Geneva Airport into France, it is fairly seamless. There are plenty of people who live around Annecy who commute into Geneva every day for that same reason.
    It's usually fairly seamless for cars but there are physical checks on trucks and there is full border infrastructure on the motorway - signs, customs sheds, police etc etc. Cars have to stop to be checked for the vignette (Swiss motorway pass). It's nothing like the Irish border.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    He might be onto something

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCGiQlF12hI
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,064
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1143518246768926725

    People are now laughing at Boris Johnson, not with him. That is a very bad place to be. I actually think he will lose this now.
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    TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/8037/scorecard/1022365/england-vs-australia-10th-match-group-a-icc-champions-trophy-2017

    Are you Gaurav?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,159
    isam said:

    Do we lay Hunt if he goes favourite?

    :lol: Some way to go yet!
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,779
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/1143451283635838977

    Yes, but it is probably beyond the wit of a lazy fool who once said that it was similar to the congestion charge.
    It does have physical checks but, if you drive from Geneva Airport into France, it is fairly seamless. There are plenty of people who live around Annecy who commute into Geneva every day for that same reason.
    The other difference being that Switzerland is a signatory to Schengen (2008) as a member of EFTA. If Boris is proposing this as a solution I might even vote for him, but he might find the ERG remove their support.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,900
    https://twitter.com/billcashmp/status/1143513789263953920?s=21
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,159
    Tim_B said:

    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    This is what's driven Boris to do BBC/talkRADIO/LBC in the past 24 hours. I agree he was starting to look very evasive:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1143510834410414082

    Don’t do this to me.
    Remember the rule - lay Tory Party leader favourite...
    Sounds like quite a few already have :-)
    Well, I always thought it would be closer than the near coronation that was predicted but seems unlikely that a whole mass of members have changed their minds in a few days.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,159
    edited June 2019
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1143520108398239744

    Did Johnson offer to resign if not done by 31st Oct?
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    isamisam Posts: 40,900
    edited June 2019
    What on earth? I can’t see the attraction. Just install Hunt so Nige can beat him later in the year

    https://twitter.com/talkradio/status/1143490460549287937?s=21
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,159
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/billcashmp/status/1143513789263953920?s=21

    Er. Tombs is a historian and a very good one at that. But not a trade expert.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Boy, whilst I hope you're right he has a huge advantage. Twice the size of that which May squandered, and she still ended up ahead of Corbyn.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2019
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/billcashmp/status/1143513789263953920?s=21

    If further proof were needed, that just shows what a half-wit Bill Cash is. The very letter he cites demolishes his point.

    Quite why the five signatories of the letter felt it necessary to agree with everyone else that Gatt 24 doesn't apply unless the EU agrees that it should apply and in the context that a free-trade agreement is being negotiated is a mystery. We knew all that, it doesn't make it magically happen.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    Hmmmm


    https://twitter.com/d4nf0x/status/1143238568241958917
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    anothernick said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/1143451283635838977

    Yes, but it is probably beyond the wit of a lazy fool who once said that it was similar to the congestion charge.
    It does have physical checks but, if you drive from Geneva Airport into France, it is fairly seamless. There are plenty of people who live around Annecy who commute into Geneva every day for that same reason.
    It's usually fairly seamless for cars but there are physical checks on trucks and there is full border infrastructure on the motorway - signs, customs sheds, police etc etc. Cars have to stop to be checked for the vignette (Swiss motorway pass). It's nothing like the Irish border.
    Isn’t Switzerland in schengan?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://twitter.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1143521788258869248
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    rottenborough said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/billcashmp/status/1143513789263953920?s=21

    Er. Tombs is a historian and a very good one at that. But not a trade expert.
    The answer is in the letter, as I think the authors know. They presuppose that if there is no deal the EU will cheerfully agree to sign up immediately to ongoing negotiations towards a free trade deal. This is not something that the EU has given any hint that it is prepared to do - quite the contrary.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    nichomar said:

    anothernick said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/1143451283635838977

    Yes, but it is probably beyond the wit of a lazy fool who once said that it was similar to the congestion charge.
    It does have physical checks but, if you drive from Geneva Airport into France, it is fairly seamless. There are plenty of people who live around Annecy who commute into Geneva every day for that same reason.
    It's usually fairly seamless for cars but there are physical checks on trucks and there is full border infrastructure on the motorway - signs, customs sheds, police etc etc. Cars have to stop to be checked for the vignette (Swiss motorway pass). It's nothing like the Irish border.
    Isn’t Switzerland in schengan?
    Yes but schengen only covers people not goods. There are no ID checks but there are customs checks.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,245
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/billcashmp/status/1143513789263953920?s=21

    "All that is needed is for the EU to consent to a one-page agreement in principle."

    Can't see any flaws whatsoever with that.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    Jeremy Hunt has seeped into the mind of the public, this from the country's finest cricket over by over blog.

    “I hate using this term now that Jeremy Hunt has started to use it but we’re going to bottle it aren’t we?” says Aejaz Shaikh. “Where would this rank on the list of England’s biggest WC bottlejobs? It must be at the top, because we’ve actually got a decent team this time.”

    If they fail to reach the semis, it would easily be England’s worst World Cup campaign and arguably the worst for any country. I still think Australia 1992 was the most unlikely flop, but it faded into the background when they went on to win three in a row from 1999-2007.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,159
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/billcashmp/status/1143513789263953920?s=21

    "So why is it an issue?

    Essentially because of some misunderstandings.

    The worst is the idea that with “no deal”, Britain can unilaterally “invoke” Article 24 and continue to trade duty-free with the EU as a “standstill” while the two negotiate a free trade agreement. This is obviously nonsense because there has to be a deal.

    Better is the recognition that the UK and EU have to reach an agreement first. If that happens, they can have, for example, a “standstill” deal (or any other kind of free trade agreement) while they negotiate something better.

    In fact there is already a standstill deal: the Withdrawal Agreement would keep the UK in the EU’s customs union and single market during the transition"

    https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/06/24/beginners-guide-gatt-article-24/
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    isamisam Posts: 40,900
    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1143521788258869248

    Tut tut
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    AlastairMeeks said:

    rottenborough said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/billcashmp/status/1143513789263953920?s=21

    Er. Tombs is a historian and a very good one at that. But not a trade expert.
    The answer is in the letter, as I think the authors know. They presuppose that if there is no deal the EU will cheerfully agree to sign up immediately to ongoing negotiations towards a free trade deal. This is not something that the EU has given any hint that it is prepared to do - quite the contrary.
    I thought we were sicked and tired of experts?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,159
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1143518246768926725

    People are now laughing at Boris Johnson, not with him. That is a very bad place to be. I actually think he will lose this now.
    There was always going to be wobbles. Ask any POTUS candidate. But seems to have happened very quickly.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2019
    One of the many massive miscalculations which the Conservative Party is making at the moment is to fail to take into account that the public is likely to get very fed up very quickly with Boris' style in interviews. It's engaging and quite fun in small quantities - or at least was in the past - but it will get increasingly irritating with more exposure.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/billcashmp/status/1143513789263953920?s=21

    "All that is needed is for the EU to consent to a one-page agreement in principle."

    Can't see any flaws whatsoever with that.
    If they want to avoid conflict in Ireland then it is better than no deal.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,900
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    One of the many massive miscalculations which the Conservative Party is making at the moment is to fail to take into account that the public is likely to get very fed up very quickly with Boris' style in interviews. It's engaging and quite fun in small quantities - or at least was in the past - but it will get increasingly irritating with more exposure.

    It’s always irritated me.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited June 2019
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/billcashmp/status/1143513789263953920?s=21

    If further proof were needed, that just shows what a half-wit Bill Cash is. The very letter he cites demolishes his point.

    Quite why the five signatories of the letter felt it necessary to agree with everyone else that Gatt 24 doesn't apply unless the EU agrees that it should apply and in the context that a free-trade agreement is being negotiated is a mystery. We knew all that, it doesn't make it magically happen.
    Very well described by the Belgium MEP on the Brexit steering group on the World at One. From about 16 mins in.....(quite funny even)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000678t
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AlastairMeeks said:

    rottenborough said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/billcashmp/status/1143513789263953920?s=21

    Er. Tombs is a historian and a very good one at that. But not a trade expert.
    The answer is in the letter, as I think the authors know. They presuppose that if there is no deal the EU will cheerfully agree to sign up immediately to ongoing negotiations towards a free trade deal. This is not something that the EU has given any hint that it is prepared to do - quite the contrary.
    That's because they don't need to if the backstop is on the table.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @TOPPING

    It wasn’t bullying - I was reporting what I recalled from the original interview. You could hear her shouting and his voice was quieter.

    There was no implication of blame. A couple had a row. The neighbours called the police, who investigated and there was nothing to be concerned about.

    That’s it. I am critical of the neighbours who then went to the media. Interestingly the guardian hasn’t released the tape - I suspect because that is much more of an issue from a privacy perspective.

    FWIW I don’t like Boris, I don’t trust him and don’t believe he is qualified or has the judgement to be PM. If I had a vote (which I don’t) I’d vote for Hunt. My mother does have a vote and I suspect she will be influenced by my views.

    ( @TheScreamingEagles I wasn’t aware of the Worboys link. I have nothing but sympathy for her).

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1143521788258869248

    Tut tut
    I put that up for your benefit.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    Oooh this could win it for Hunt

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1143526393227223040
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/billcashmp/status/1143513789263953920?s=21

    If further proof were needed, that just shows what a half-wit Bill Cash is. The very letter he cites demolishes his point.

    Quite why the five signatories of the letter felt it necessary to agree with everyone else that Gatt 24 doesn't apply unless the EU agrees that it should apply and in the context that a free-trade agreement is being negotiated is a mystery. We knew all that, it doesn't make it magically happen.
    The suggestion is that if we called the EU's bluff over the WDA they would accept a standstill over nothing.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I have tried to read up on GATT 24 but all I read is scads of pro-Brexit content going "We'll trade tariff free whilst we negotiate a deal and all it takes is the teeny tiny thing of the EU agreeing to do that without a deal in place"

    Is that really their idea. That the EU will agree to having a deal with us without having a deal?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    Alistair said:

    I have tried to read up on GATT 24 but all I read is scads of pro-Brexit content going "We'll trade tariff free whilst we negotiate a deal and all it takes is the teeny tiny thing of the EU agreeing to do that without a deal in place"

    Is that really their idea. That the EU will agree to having a deal with us without having a deal?

    You forget we hold all the cards.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Alistair said:

    I have tried to read up on GATT 24 but all I read is scads of pro-Brexit content going "We'll trade tariff free whilst we negotiate a deal and all it takes is the teeny tiny thing of the EU agreeing to do that without a deal in place"

    Is that really their idea. That the EU will agree to having a deal with us without having a deal?

    Yes.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Alistair said:

    I have tried to read up on GATT 24 but all I read is scads of pro-Brexit content going "We'll trade tariff free whilst we negotiate a deal and all it takes is the teeny tiny thing of the EU agreeing to do that without a deal in place"

    Is that really their idea. That the EU will agree to having a deal with us without having a deal?

    And without agreeing to the backstop if necessary and not paying the £39b
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    I have tried to read up on GATT 24 but all I read is scads of pro-Brexit content going "We'll trade tariff free whilst we negotiate a deal and all it takes is the teeny tiny thing of the EU agreeing to do that without a deal in place"

    Is that really their idea. That the EU will agree to having a deal with us without having a deal?

    You forget we hold all the cards.
    We do if we stop folding to their bluff.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/billcashmp/status/1143513789263953920?s=21

    If further proof were needed, that just shows what a half-wit Bill Cash is. The very letter he cites demolishes his point.

    Quite why the five signatories of the letter felt it necessary to agree with everyone else that Gatt 24 doesn't apply unless the EU agrees that it should apply and in the context that a free-trade agreement is being negotiated is a mystery. We knew all that, it doesn't make it magically happen.
    The suggestion is that if we called the EU's bluff over the WDA they would accept a standstill over nothing.
    No it's not, the suggestion is that a unicorn called Gatt 24 will come galloping up and save us from no-deal disaster whether the EU agrees or not, which is utter unmitigated tosh.

    Of course if the EU agrees to change the Withdrawal Agreement or come up with some other deal before October 31st we'd be leaving with a deal. Everyone knows that, and everyone knows that the chances of that are tiny. Gatt 24 has zilch to do with a no-deal scenario
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