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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The most accurate pollster at the Euros has Hunt rated better
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The most accurate pollster at the Euros has Hunt rated better than Boris when compared with Corbyn
New Ipsos-MORI focuses, inevitably, on the CON leadership race. These are some key findings:
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Boris 66% Hunt 30% Undecided 4%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/06/our-survey-next-tory-leader-johnson-66-per-cent-hunt-30-per-cent.html
Back in 2007 45% of the country said they could vote for a Gordon Brown led Labour party at the next general election.
What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.
Ironically Boris losing a VONC pre October and winning a snap general election on a deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal ticket could do that
2007 was pre 2008 crash
Let's have a good look at the details when they are available.
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2019-06/polmon-june-27-2019-topline.pdf
It seems reasonably clear to me that Boris will get a (potentially brief) honeymoon; but as @SouthamObserver noted FPT that may well create a reaction on the other side.
In fact I think there could only ever have been one realistic plan for a putative new PM: to ask the EU for an extension, which would be used to hold a GE with the Conservatives offering a referendum between the Withdrawal Agreement and Revoke.
Of course that's not a realistic plan for becoming that next PM, which is a bit of a problem.
There's a bit of a Bozza Bounce at the moment, but IMO he wants to moderate how sunny the uplands are that he promises. If he creates the impression of a stress-free Brexit at the stroke, nay flourish, of his pen and it doesn't happen, Farage will bounce back like Tigger* on speed. That could be pretty fatal for the Tories in a snap election.
(*The cartoon character, not the loose grouping of centrist MPs)
It’s not even a hypothetical poll.
A hypothetical poll is “if the parties were lead by X, Y and Z, who would you vote for?”
Asking whether people would “consider” voting for someone at best simply establishes a ceiling. The LibDems pre-2010 used to get well over half the population saying they would consider supporting them; clearly this doesn’t translate into any particular VI.
I thought fake pollery was a banning offence here?
The first Brexit food riot is likely to follow No Deal fairly swiftly...
Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?
Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.
That's before considering that people may vote on other matters too.
https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1144228985620111360
Although if they are going to be shuffled out anyway, departing anti-no-deal minsters might VONC in any case
Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow
I know you despise Boris and hate polls putting Boris ahead but tough luck
Of course it may be that people will vote on other issues as well as Brexit. But there's no reason that factor per se should benefit the Tories or the Brexit Party rather than other parties (does the latter even have any other issues?).
On the most influential political issue of the day, the Tories would do well to remember that if they pin their hopes on No Deal, they're going to be fishing in a pond that contains not more than a third of the electorate, and with no assurance of catching anything like all the fish.
But the Brexit inquiry is something a lot of Leavers in government are afraid of happening in the event of No Deal.
[chortle]
Good afternoon, everyone.
Hutton cleared Blair promptly but Chilcot shredded the reputation of Blair in a way no other Prime Minister has been in the past.
In all seriousness, if Boris & Co screw this one up, the judgement in court of public opinion will come far before any serious inquiry, much as it did for Blair. The posters on this board care about Chilcot; you'd be hard pressed to find many 'normal' folk that could even remember what his report covered.
Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.
No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop
Like Richard Nabavi my membership of the Tory party after the 1st of November isn't guaranteed.
Honestly if we wanted to join a party that was going to the trash the economy we'd have joined the Labour party.
BUt yeah, if this doesn't lead one of Corbyn or Watson going...whats the point?
I'll win it this time as I was far too distracted by editing PB and Liverpool's champions league campaign last season.
My fear is that the party will go even more wingnut if Boris fails.
The spin will be Boris really didn't believe in Brexit and only backed it for his leadership ambitions, what we really need a true believer, so step forward Mark Francois or Andrew Bridgen as the next Tory leader after Boris.
I vote swapped because I live in a Lib Dem/Labour marginal which helped the Tories gain a seat from Labour.
I also campaigned for the Tories in 2018 and 2019, which is an odd thing for a Lib Dem to do isn't it?
Jaw dropping stuff.
But one wonders if personality is a big issue why he voted for Mrs May.
I live on the second floor
I live upstairs from you
Yes I think you've seen me before
If you hear something late at night
Some kind of trouble
Some kind of fight
Just don't ask me what it was
Just don't ask me what it was
Just don't ask me what it was
With apologies to Suzanne Vega
As to the more tangible effects I see GBPUSD at around 1.10-1.15 and yes, a sizeable hit to GDP of the scale of the GFC. I don't see a wake up "gotcha" moment however (currency aside) and the vast majority of the UK will be largely unaware personally of the diminution of their wealth vs any alternative scenario (a deal, for example).
Hence the Leavers will be doing a lot of I told you so-ing. Even as they, we, all become poorer than we otherwise might have been.
They absolutely should back Hunt.
Boris is unfit to be in Cabinet, and it's pathetic that Conservative MPs backed him so much.
true blue proper tories vote brexit or ukip party when they aren't happy.