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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Boris Johnson tries to deliver on his promise of a No Deal

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Boris Johnson tries to deliver on his promise of a No Deal Brexit on Halloween then a Vote of No Confidence seems inevitable

‘Never trust anybody who spells gonorrhoea correctly on the first attempt’ is a maxim that has served me well in life, I might revise that maxim to ‘Never trust anybody who says a no deal Brexit will be fine.’ I suspect many MPs are also guided by the latter maxim.

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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,402
    edited June 2019
    First, like the minute in which the Lionesses scored.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    A reasonable bet, but not compelling.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    Will Bottas let Hamilton through ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    edited June 2019
    If Ferrari hadn’t screwed the pit stop, that period behind Bottas would have screwed Hamilton.
    All change now.

    Tactically inept, and operationally incompetent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited June 2019
    Fine, it is clear the current Zombie Commons cannot deliver anything having voted against the Withdrawal Agreement, voted against No Deal and voted against staying in the Single Market and Customs Union and voted against Revoke and voted against EUref2.

    If the Commons backs a VONC fine in PM Boris fine, let us then have a general election and let the voters decide, give Boris a Tory majority and he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal but aim for a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by confirmatory referendum if need be, not the DUP.

    If not then we get a Labour, LD and SNP Government most likely and either EUref2 or revoke or Single Market and Customs Union BINO but at least we would actually get somewhere rather than the current limbo
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FPT:

    India need their 5th highest run chase in ODIs to win the match, and second highest against England.

    http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/content/records/93518.html
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Nigelb said:

    A reasonable bet, but not compelling.

    It is compelling in the sense you'd probably collect but not so if you have to wait till after the conference season. There are plenty of 1/3 shots before then. And the party got rattled so is trying to string out the leadership election almost till the recess in order to minimise the chance of Labour VONC-ing Boris. The recess will give him eight or so weeks to shore up support during the holidays.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577

    Nigelb said:

    A reasonable bet, but not compelling.

    It is compelling in the sense you'd probably collect but not so if you have to wait till after the conference season. There are plenty of 1/3 shots before then. And the party got rattled so is trying to string out the leadership election almost till the recess in order to minimise the chance of Labour VONC-ing Boris. The recess will give him eight or so weeks to shore up support during the holidays.
    And it’s quite possible it wouldn’t pay out.
    The odds are probably about right, which is why it’s not compelling.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,264
    HYUFD said:

    Fine, it is clear the current Zombie Commons cannot deliver anything having voted against the Withdrawal Agreement, voted against No Deal and voted against staying in the Single Market and Customs Union and voted against Revoke and voted against EUref2.

    If the Commons backs a VONC fine in PM Boris fine, let us then have a general election and let the voters decide, give Boris a Tory majority and he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal but aim for a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by confirmatory referendum if need be, not the DUP.

    If not then we get a Labour, LD and SNP Government most likely and either EUref2 or revoke or Single Market and Customs Union BINO but at least we would actually get somewhere rather than the current limbo

    Agreed!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    Probably been commented on in the earlier threads ...... been watching g the cricket and sorting out other bits.... but I've just seen Jeremy Hunts statement that if a No Deal departure from the EU means he would have to tell businesses that it would be disastrous for them, he would do so.

    Reminds me of a caricature of a WWI General
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    11 sec stop for Hamilton, with the new wing being fitted.

    Might have won the GP had he stayed off the kerbs. Long afternoon for him now.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    A reasonable bet, but not compelling.

    It is compelling in the sense you'd probably collect but not so if you have to wait till after the conference season. There are plenty of 1/3 shots before then. And the party got rattled so is trying to string out the leadership election almost till the recess in order to minimise the chance of Labour VONC-ing Boris. The recess will give him eight or so weeks to shore up support during the holidays.
    And it’s quite possible it wouldn’t pay out.
    The odds are probably about right, which is why it’s not compelling.

    Well, it is hard to see why Labour would not call a VONC, and the bet does not depend on whether it is won or lost.

    The danger, on reflection, is that Boris takes HYUFD's advice and calls a snap election. Canning occupied Number 10 for 100-odd days. Boris could break that record if he is not careful.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited June 2019

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    A reasonable bet, but not compelling.

    It is compelling in the sense you'd probably collect but not so if you have to wait till after the conference season. There are plenty of 1/3 shots before then. And the party got rattled so is trying to string out the leadership election almost till the recess in order to minimise the chance of Labour VONC-ing Boris. The recess will give him eight or so weeks to shore up support during the holidays.
    And it’s quite possible it wouldn’t pay out.
    The odds are probably about right, which is why it’s not compelling.

    Well, it is hard to see why Labour would not call a VONC, and the bet does not depend on whether it is won or lost.

    The danger, on reflection, is that Boris takes HYUFD's advice and calls a snap election. Canning occupied Number 10 for 100-odd days. Boris could break that record if he is not careful.
    The snap election (September) is priced at 12 on Betfair, as a good hedge.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Surely this is about a 1/10 shot? Isn’t this going to be Labour’s first move on the installation of a new Prime Minister?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577

    Probably been commented on in the earlier threads ...... been watching g the cricket and sorting out other bits.... but I've just seen Jeremy Hunts statement that if a No Deal departure from the EU means he would have to tell businesses that it would be disastrous for them, he would do so.

    Reminds me of a caricature of a WWI General

    Or Vietnam - ‘we had to destroy the village to save it’, writ large.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    All those hypothetical trade deals the UK might eventually strike are highly hypothetical. Meanwhile, hard on the heels of Mercosur:

    https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/1145248175151878145?s=21
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    ‘Never trust anybody who spells gonorrhoea correctly on the first attempt’ is a maxim that has served me well in life, I might revise that maxim to ‘Never trust anybody who says a no deal Brexit will be fine.’

    :D

    I like the 3/10 odds on a VONC

    However, rather than proroguing parliament is there anything to stop Johnson simply delaying the summer recess until 01st Nov? Is it in statute that MPs will return?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    AndyJS said:

    FPT:

    India need their 5th highest run chase in ODIs to win the match, and second highest against England.

    http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/content/records/93518.html


    And the highest ever World Cup run chase
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    A reasonable bet, but not compelling.

    It is compelling in the sense you'd probably collect but not so if you have to wait till after the conference season. There are plenty of 1/3 shots before then. And the party got rattled so is trying to string out the leadership election almost till the recess in order to minimise the chance of Labour VONC-ing Boris. The recess will give him eight or so weeks to shore up support during the holidays.
    And it’s quite possible it wouldn’t pay out.
    The odds are probably about right, which is why it’s not compelling.

    Well, it is hard to see why Labour would not call a VONC, and the bet does not depend on whether it is won or lost.

    The danger, on reflection, is that Boris takes HYUFD's advice and calls a snap election. Canning occupied Number 10 for 100-odd days. Boris could break that record if he is not careful.
    I’ve been wrong often enough before, so I’m not going to argue. :smile:
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    FPT:

    India need their 5th highest run chase in ODIs to win the match, and second highest against England.

    http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/content/records/93518.html


    And the highest ever World Cup run chase
    Yep, and the highest at Edgbaston by quite some margin.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FPT
    IanB2 said:



    You’re right to identify that one of the obstacles to financial independence has always been the need for redistribution between richer and poorer areas; even within a ‘rich’ area like London, funds are redistributed from Westminster to other Boroughs, given the former’s massive business rate base.

    One option is that the government would continue to manage this, as it does now through the local government grant process. A better option is that this be put in the hands of the LGA, which has a good track record of advocating in the interests of all authorities and less likely than government to bias the formula one way or the other depending on which party is dominant.

    On this basis it would be possible to devolve the tax base to local government without any winners or losers - they take over the current council tax and business rate tax bases as is.

    One of the challenges to my suggestion is of course that it would be better to replace both with some sort of land value tax.

    The trick is to allocate responsibilities and resources appropriately.

    It seems to me that local councils should be largely about local service delivery - bins etc - plus mandated service delivery (e.g. social care).

    Where it is local service delivery they should set council tax (or whatever) to fund this. If they want to have any pet projects they should justify them and fund them through tax. Mandated service delivery should be funded in full by central government.

    If you are going down a federal route, you need to have an interim government level as well, which is much more challenging. But that could be funded by things like business rates and a local sales tax (replacing VAT). You can have a mechanism for redistribution as well from business rates.

    And then regions could choose the balance of tax and spending that suits their needs and desires best.
    IanB2 said:



    A constitution protects local government in other democracies from the whim of central government; in the UK the government is able to merge or abolish councils, change their funding, remove or curtail their powers, direct their internal organisation, all at whim of whichever party has a majority based on 35%+ of the popular vote at the time.

    I would go for a much more narrow technical document with supermajority or dual consent provisions to change it. A broader document is going to end up reflecting the concerns of the day and will cause no end of trouble in future.

    An example would be the right to bear arms in the US constitution. It was a very important issue when it was passed, but today it is less appropriate but very difficult to change
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    HYUFD said:

    Fine, it is clear the current Zombie Commons cannot deliver anything having voted against the Withdrawal Agreement, voted against No Deal and voted against staying in the Single Market and Customs Union and voted against Revoke and voted against EUref2.

    If the Commons backs a VONC fine in PM Boris fine, let us then have a general election and let the voters decide, give Boris a Tory majority and he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal but aim for a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by confirmatory referendum if need be, not the DUP.

    If not then we get a Labour, LD and SNP Government most likely and either EUref2 or revoke or Single Market and Customs Union BINO but at least we would actually get somewhere rather than the current limbo

    Yep l think you've covered all the options there.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Probably been commented on in the earlier threads ...... been watching g the cricket and sorting out other bits.... but I've just seen Jeremy Hunts statement that if a No Deal departure from the EU means he would have to tell businesses that it would be disastrous for them, he would do so.

    Reminds me of a caricature of a WWI General

    We’ve seen a lot of Brexit the Destroyer, but not much of the Creator or the Preserver, despite the many sacrifices that the faithful are ready to make to propitiate the God.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    For me it hinges on the principle of consent for NI.

    It is difficult to argue against allowing the NI a referendum on whether to have a backstop or a hard border.

    The DUP might try, but I doubt it would win them many friends in the region, which might give them pause for reflection.

    Force the extremists to face the consequences of their intransigence.

    If we have a hard border with the consent of the people of NI, then that's their choice. If they chose to maintain the current fudged situation then that's their choice as well
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    Woakes !
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited June 2019
    If Johnson asks the Queen to prorogue parliament l think the Queen will consult the Privy Councli who are her advisors. There about 650 off them. That will take some time. In the meanwhile ....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    Archer seems to have found his length.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    The only obvious way this bet fails is if Johnson preempts it by calling an election. I do not think he will - I really don't - but it must be a strong possibility.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Charles said:

    For me it hinges on the principle of consent for NI.

    It is difficult to argue against allowing the NI a referendum on whether to have a backstop or a hard border.

    The DUP might try, but I doubt it would win them many friends in the region, which might give them pause for reflection.

    Force the extremists to face the consequences of their intransigence.

    If we have a hard border with the consent of the people of NI, then that's their choice. If they chose to maintain the current fudged situation then that's their choice as well

    The DUP will vote against it no matter how reasonable it seems.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    Barnesian said:

    Charles said:

    For me it hinges on the principle of consent for NI.

    It is difficult to argue against allowing the NI a referendum on whether to have a backstop or a hard border.

    The DUP might try, but I doubt it would win them many friends in the region, which might give them pause for reflection.

    Force the extremists to face the consequences of their intransigence.

    If we have a hard border with the consent of the people of NI, then that's their choice. If they chose to maintain the current fudged situation then that's their choice as well

    The DUP will vote against it no matter how reasonable it seems.
    The only way such a referendum might happen anyway is post an election, so it doesn’t much matter what the DUP think.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Barnesian said:

    Charles said:

    For me it hinges on the principle of consent for NI.

    It is difficult to argue against allowing the NI a referendum on whether to have a backstop or a hard border.

    The DUP might try, but I doubt it would win them many friends in the region, which might give them pause for reflection.

    Force the extremists to face the consequences of their intransigence.

    If we have a hard border with the consent of the people of NI, then that's their choice. If they chose to maintain the current fudged situation then that's their choice as well

    The DUP will vote against it no matter how reasonable it seems.
    And then pay the political cost in Northern Ireland.

    But I would hope that the principle of consent would allow more of the ERG to come on board.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    Barnesian said:

    Charles said:

    For me it hinges on the principle of consent for NI.

    It is difficult to argue against allowing the NI a referendum on whether to have a backstop or a hard border.

    The DUP might try, but I doubt it would win them many friends in the region, which might give them pause for reflection.

    Force the extremists to face the consequences of their intransigence.

    If we have a hard border with the consent of the people of NI, then that's their choice. If they chose to maintain the current fudged situation then that's their choice as well

    The DUP will vote against it no matter how reasonable it seems.
    They are, of course, divinely inspired.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    Vettel gambles on a fresh set of softs; Bottas in Verstappen’s sights.

    This is a fun GP.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If Corbyn is given a choice between trying to form a government with the present composition of the House of Commons or having a general election, which would he choose?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    Snapping at Leclerc’s heels next.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    AndyJS said:

    If Corbyn is given a choice between trying to form a government with the present composition of the House of Commons or having a general election, which would he choose?

    GE
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    If Corbyn is given a choice between trying to form a government with the present composition of the House of Commons or having a general election, which would he choose?

    GE
    That's what I thought, but even if the polls remain as they are now with 4 parties on about 20-25%?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722

    AndyJS said:

    If Corbyn is given a choice between trying to form a government with the present composition of the House of Commons or having a general election, which would he choose?

    GE
    Seconded. He'd try and get a few local Labour parties to get rid of recalcitrant MP's before, though.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    If Corbyn is given a choice between trying to form a government with the present composition of the House of Commons or having a general election, which would he choose?

    GE
    That's what I thought, but even if the polls remain as they are now with 4 parties on about 20-25%?
    Yep Corbyn starts all GE on 20-25%
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited June 2019
    Brown trouser time for @Jbriskinindyref2
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Charles said:

    For me it hinges on the principle of consent for NI.

    It is difficult to argue against allowing the NI a referendum on whether to have a backstop or a hard border.

    The DUP might try, but I doubt it would win them many friends in the region, which might give them pause for reflection.

    Force the extremists to face the consequences of their intransigence.

    If we have a hard border with the consent of the people of NI, then that's their choice. If they chose to maintain the current fudged situation then that's their choice as well

    The DUP will vote against it no matter how reasonable it seems.
    And then pay the political cost in Northern Ireland.

    But I would hope that the principle of consent would allow more of the ERG to come on board.
    Hope is the last thing to die
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pulpstar said:

    Brown trouser time for @Jbriskinindyref2

    The Verstappen layer from two threads back?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    The extreme heat in Austria has turned this GP into a classic.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    If Corbyn is given a choice between trying to form a government with the present composition of the House of Commons or having a general election, which would he choose?

    GE
    That's what I thought, but even if the polls remain as they are now with 4 parties on about 20-25%?
    Yep Corbyn starts all GE on 20-25%
    Based on a dataset of 1.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Nigelb said:

    The extreme heat in Austria has turned this GP into a classic.

    It’s a great race, in sharp contrast to last Sunday’s effort.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    edited June 2019
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    The extreme heat in Austria has turned this GP into a classic.

    It’s a great race, in sharp contrast to last Sunday’s effort.
    The heat has seriously handicapped Mercedes, and apparently Ferrari too a bit, which made it a three way fight.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    India now need almost 8 an over.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    edited June 2019
    Leclerc is a fine driver.
    (We already knew about Verstappen.)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    As far as I am aware, these are the first two constituency markets to be listed (both Shadsy). Unusually late, considering that the next GE can’t be far off.

    Islington North LAB MAJ (Jeremy Corbyn) 33,215

    Lab 1/10
    LD 6/1
    Bxp 50/1
    Con 50/1

    (Baxter: Lab 46%, LD 26%, Bxp 10%, Grn 9%, Con 8%)

    Uxbridge and South Ruislip CON MAJ (Boris Johnson) 5,034

    Con 1/5
    Lab 5/1
    Bxp 10/1
    LD 50/1

    (Baxter: Con 27%, Lab 26%, Bxp 21%, LD 15%, Grn 8%)

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/area_lond.html

    Looks about right.
    It must have been a very niche group of Poles you encountered in Poland. Either that or they were trying to impress you because Polish GDP per capita is less than half what it is in the UK:

    https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/gdp-per-capita

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita

    Now there's more to economics than GDP, even more to living standards and yet more to quality of life but the likelihood of Poland matching the UK economy is pretty slim in the foreseeable future.
    That’s a keeper.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Nigelb said:

    Leclerc is a fine driver.
    (We already knew about Verstappen.)

    We’ve got ten years of these two fighting each other!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leclerc is a fine driver.
    (We already knew about Verstappen.)

    We’ve got ten years of these two fighting each other!
    Hope so !

  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    edited June 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Leclerc is a fine driver.
    (We already knew about Verstappen.)

    got 9/1 verstappen just after he got past Vettel. happy days.

    edit - unless stewards intervene.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    And now the stewards....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Ooh, another stewards’ enquiry!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    edited June 2019
    Wood, this is not the pitch to bowl short on !


    Particularly to a well set batsman.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Nigelb said:

    And now the stewards....

    Hard racing imo
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    And now the stewards....

    Hard racing imo
    Agreed - but under a strict interpretation of the rules (which need some thinking about), very marginal indeed.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Fine, it is clear the current Zombie Commons cannot deliver anything having voted against the Withdrawal Agreement, voted against No Deal and voted against staying in the Single Market and Customs Union and voted against Revoke and voted against EUref2.

    If the Commons backs a VONC fine in PM Boris fine, let us then have a general election and let the voters decide, give Boris a Tory majority and he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal but aim for a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by confirmatory referendum if need be, not the DUP.

    If not then we get a Labour, LD and SNP Government most likely and either EUref2 or revoke or Single Market and Customs Union BINO but at least we would actually get somewhere rather than the current limbo

    First sensible post from you in a while. Glad to see the fever lifting.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    And now the stewards....

    Hard racing imo
    Agreed - but under a strict interpretation of the rules (which need some thinking about), very marginal indeed.

    It’s awfully close under the rules as they stand. You’re supposed to leave a car’s width, which Max didn’t do.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    Having seen the Leaver anger at the stance that theclaim that Turkey was about to join the EU was not exactly honest, how about a compromise that makes both sides happy that they are the truthful ones: we complete our withdrawal on the day Turkey completes its accession?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    edited June 2019
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    And now the stewards....

    Hard racing imo
    Agreed - but under a strict interpretation of the rules (which need some thinking about), very marginal indeed.

    It’s awfully close under the rules as they stand. You’re supposed to leave a car’s width, which Max didn’t do.
    The silly thing is that he really didn’t need to squeeze him quite so much.
    He’s a great driver, but he need to learn to use his brain a bit more.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Fine, it is clear the current Zombie Commons cannot deliver anything having voted against the Withdrawal Agreement, voted against No Deal and voted against staying in the Single Market and Customs Union and voted against Revoke and voted against EUref2.

    If the Commons backs a VONC fine in PM Boris fine, let us then have a general election and let the voters decide, give Boris a Tory majority and he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal but aim for a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by confirmatory referendum if need be, not the DUP.

    If not then we get a Labour, LD and SNP Government most likely and either EUref2 or revoke or Single Market and Customs Union BINO but at least we would actually get somewhere rather than the current limbo

    First sensible post from you in a while. Glad to see the fever lifting.
    Good to see you, myself and Nick Palmer in rare agreement
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited June 2019
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: the Verstappen win should stand.

    Not least because I tipped him (hedged) at 7.8.

    Edited extra bit: that was an astoundingly good race, incidentally. I think the secret to improving F1 is clear: sabotage Mercedes before every race weekend.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Having seen the Leaver anger at the stance that theclaim that Turkey was about to join the EU was not exactly honest, how about a compromise that makes both sides happy that they are the truthful ones: we complete our withdrawal on the day Turkey completes its accession?

    Yes I’ll sign up to that.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: the Verstappen win should stand.

    Not least because I tipped him (hedged) at 7.8.

    Edited extra bit: that was an astoundingly good race, incidentally. I think the secret to improving F1 is clear: sabotage Mercedes before every race weekend.

    365 pay out on the results at the time of podium presentation. I think that's the standard rule.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Having seen the Leaver anger at the stance that theclaim that Turkey was about to join the EU was not exactly honest, how about a compromise that makes both sides happy that they are the truthful ones: we complete our withdrawal on the day Turkey completes its accession?

    That's effectively a referendum on whether we would let Turkey join. France had a referendum on the original expansion that saw the UK join, so it's not without precedent.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: the Verstappen win should stand.

    Not least because I tipped him (hedged) at 7.8.

    Edited extra bit: that was an astoundingly good race, incidentally. I think the secret to improving F1 is clear: sabotage Mercedes before every race weekend.

    Mercedes’s cooling problem in low drag configuration suggests Monza isn’t going to be great for them, either.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    20,000 India fans at Edgbaston must be getting a bit restless with this batting performance.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    edited June 2019
    AndyJS said:

    20,000 India fans at Edgbaston must be getting a bit restless with this batting performance.

    I’m getting a bit restless with Wood’s bowling.
    He’s giving Bairstow a lot of exercise.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    AndyJS said:

    20,000 India fans at Edgbaston must be getting a bit restless with this batting performance.

    So long as they behave themselves better than the Pakistan and Afghanistan fans did yesterday.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. 64, long time since this has been a potential issue for me with a bet.

    We'll see what happens.

    Mr. B, that may prove to be a very astute observation. What surprised me was the competitiveness of Verstappen.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    20,000 India fans at Edgbaston must be getting a bit restless with this batting performance.

    So long as they behave themselves better than the Pakistan and Afghanistan fans did yesterday.
    Did anything serious happen there? I know there were a few minor scuffles.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    20,000 India fans at Edgbaston must be getting a bit restless with this batting performance.

    So long as they behave themselves better than the Pakistan and Afghanistan fans did yesterday.
    Did anything serious happen there? I know there were a few minor scuffles.
    I think it was more than minor scuffles, but somewhat short of a riot.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7195455/Raging-Pakistan-Afghanistan-fans-fight-violence-erupts-World-Cup-clash.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Gonna back India.

    Because if Pant's on fire he'll easily win it for India.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,074
    edited June 2019

    All those hypothetical trade deals the UK might eventually strike are highly hypothetical. Meanwhile, hard on the heels of Mercosur:

    https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/1145248175151878145?s=21

    As a matter of interest, is there a nation or customs Union with more FTAs in place than the "protectionist" EU?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Betting on a VONC looks value at those odds.

    As to No Deal, am increasingly worried the EU may lose patience and kick us out in October. That might alter the blame game somewhat but suspect is bad news for all concerned.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    I think a “do deal” Brexit is a Freudian typo?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    India now need almost 8 an over.

    Come on Indi...er, I mean England! (Oopps!!)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    20,000 India fans at Edgbaston must be getting a bit restless with this batting performance.

    So long as they behave themselves better than the Pakistan and Afghanistan fans did yesterday.
    Did anything serious happen there? I know there were a few minor scuffles.
    I think it was more than minor scuffles, but somewhat short of a riot.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7195455/Raging-Pakistan-Afghanistan-fans-fight-violence-erupts-World-Cup-clash.html
    Durand Line?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    edited June 2019

    Mr. 64, long time since this has been a potential issue for me with a bet.

    We'll see what happens.

    Mr. B, that may prove to be a very astute observation. What surprised me was the competitiveness of Verstappen.

    Ferrari have been a bit rubbish on the hard tyres - was that a contributing factor ?

    Looking at the incident again, it seems Leclerc was slightly ahead going in to the corner.
    Under the rules, Verstappen should have left him some room. And his entitled attitude does not endear him to me.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    All those hypothetical trade deals the UK might eventually strike are highly hypothetical. Meanwhile, hard on the heels of Mercosur:

    https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/1145248175151878145?s=21

    As a matter of interest, is there a nation or customs Union with more FTAs in place than the "protectionist" EU?
    Out of interest, what percentage of the EU's deals have been agreed in the last 3 years. It's almost as if they needed an incentive to perform.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    A poll for HY:

    ”In total 93% of constituencies have seen a move to Remain with just 7% in the opposite direction, the analysis shows.”

    https://t.co/rHZ4wmPRXz
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    All those hypothetical trade deals the UK might eventually strike are highly hypothetical. Meanwhile, hard on the heels of Mercosur:

    https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/1145248175151878145?s=21

    As a matter of interest, is there a nation or customs Union with more FTAs in place than the "protectionist" EU?
    Out of interest, what percentage of the EU's deals have been agreed in the last 3 years. It's almost as if they needed an incentive to perform.
    Now they've performed we can revoke Article 50 to enjoy the benefits.

    Sneaky plan.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    I wholeheartedly agree the rules should be looked at, but that is not a matter for the race stewards, and they ought to applied consistently. Doing the latter would be to penalise Verstappen.

    Norris showed how to race hard and cleanly under the current rules.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    53% of UK energy is currently being produced by wind or solar power.

    https://gridwatch.templar.co.uk
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Partly prompted by @Pulpstar I have today backed Joe Biden at 7.2 and Bernie Sanders at 12.5 for the Democrat nomination. Sure, they underperformed in the debate but they still seem to be the two front runners in the polls and they both seem to have been oversold.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. B, Verstappen's attitude can be unlikeable.

    He didn't leave a car's width. On the other hand, he did take the racing line, he didn't alter his approach to harm Leclerc.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    53% of UK energy is currently being produced by wind or solar power.

    https://gridwatch.templar.co.uk

    Good, sunny and breezy at the same time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited June 2019
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    All those hypothetical trade deals the UK might eventually strike are highly hypothetical. Meanwhile, hard on the heels of Mercosur:

    https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/1145248175151878145?s=21

    As a matter of interest, is there a nation or customs Union with more FTAs in place than the "protectionist" EU?
    Out of interest, what percentage of the EU's deals have been agreed in the last 3 years. It's almost as if they needed an incentive to perform.
    It would also be useful to see some analysis of the costs and benefits of such deals from a U.K. perspective. I suspect that the quantity of these deals is somewhat higher than the quality.

    As an example, the treatment of car tariffs in the EU/Japan deal, which predictably resulted in Japanese companies binning European factories (which are disproportionally British).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    Starting to look ominous for England.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    Partly prompted by @Pulpstar I have today backed Joe Biden at 7.2 and Bernie Sanders at 12.5 for the Democrat nomination. Sure, they underperformed in the debate but they still seem to be the two front runners in the polls and they both seem to have been oversold.

    Is this another market I'm going to have to reverse ferret in?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577

    Mr. B, Verstappen's attitude can be unlikeable.

    He didn't leave a car's width. On the other hand, he did take the racing line, he didn't alter his approach to harm Leclerc.

    There is no one racing line. This looks pretty clear that leclerc was ahead when he turned in:
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D-UWxVBXkAI8efl.jpg:large
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Partly prompted by @Pulpstar I have today backed Joe Biden at 7.2 and Bernie Sanders at 12.5 for the Democrat nomination. Sure, they underperformed in the debate but they still seem to be the two front runners in the polls and they both seem to have been oversold.

    This is one of those situations where you need to predict the market and not the facts.

    I agree Biden is currently too long at 7.2, hilariously so. But I can easily see him staying there all the way to Iowa where he comes in third and then his price totally balloons.

    Just because the polls are giving him a massive lead doesn't mean the market is going to correct itself.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: the Verstappen win should stand.

    Not least because I tipped him (hedged) at 7.8.

    Edited extra bit: that was an astoundingly good race, incidentally. I think the secret to improving F1 is clear: sabotage Mercedes before every race weekend.

    Pay on podium. You win.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Nigelb said:

    Starting to look ominous for England.

    They still need >8 per over from here. We could do with a wicket though.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Partly prompted by @Pulpstar I have today backed Joe Biden at 7.2 and Bernie Sanders at 12.5 for the Democrat nomination. Sure, they underperformed in the debate but they still seem to be the two front runners in the polls and they both seem to have been oversold.

    Is this another market I'm going to have to reverse ferret in?
    You can relive your 2016 Republican nominee glory days.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Nigelb said:

    Mr. B, Verstappen's attitude can be unlikeable.

    He didn't leave a car's width. On the other hand, he did take the racing line, he didn't alter his approach to harm Leclerc.

    There is no one racing line. This looks pretty clear that leclerc was ahead when he turned in:
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D-UWxVBXkAI8efl.jpg:large
    The comments from the Sky commentators are much less clear-cut than they were against Vettel’s penalty in Canada.

    Except for the first lap, todays incident is a slam-dunk penalty in any other circumstances (...than having already given out the trophies and making the sport look silly after an otherwise great race).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: stewards meeting at 5pm.

    Faffing.
This discussion has been closed.