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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sounding the alarm. Britain’s democracy is under direct threat

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sounding the alarm. Britain’s democracy is under direct threat

In two weeks’ time, Britain will have a Prime Minister whose commitment to democracy is contingent. Boris Johnson has repeatedly refused to rule out proroguing Parliament in order to secure a no deal Brexit by 31 October 2019.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    1

    Thanks for the header, Alistair. Although your postscript sounded quite ominous.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    Doesn’t the Grieve amendment make prorougibg b
    near impossible anyway?
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Is rejoin a realistic prospect ?

    I'm not convinced that the EU would accept the UK back in, unless membership carried broad cross party support like it used to; somewhere around 70 / 30 type numbers.

    Why would the EU want to accept the UK with an explicitly anti EU conservative party likely to come to power at some point and start the whole process again.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    btw as always, a great article from my favourite PB header writer.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Doesn’t the Grieve amendment make prorougibg b
    near impossible anyway?

    I thought that wasn't selected for consideration?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Is rejoin a realistic prospect ?

    I'm not convinced that the EU would accept the UK back in, unless membership carried broad cross party support like it used to; somewhere around 70 / 30 type numbers.

    Why would the EU want to accept the UK with an explicitly anti EU conservative party likely to come to power at some point and start the whole process again.

    The UK would find it very hard to rejoin. England, Scotland and Wales would be warmly welcomed.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    Is rejoin a realistic prospect ?

    I'm not convinced that the EU would accept the UK back in, unless membership carried broad cross party support like it used to; somewhere around 70 / 30 type numbers.

    Why would the EU want to accept the UK with an explicitly anti EU conservative party likely to come to power at some point and start the whole process again.

    The UK would find it very hard to rejoin. England, Scotland and Wales would be warmly welcomed.
    Scotland for sure where membership would enjoy broad popular support.

    E&W not so much; The EU would be signing up to play Russian roulette for ever, one wrong election result and they're back in the same drama.

    Frankly, the benefits of E&W membership don't outweigh the risks and hassles for the EU.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Off topic, what's the correct choice today if winning the toss at Lords, bat or bowl ?

    How is the pitch likely to hold up
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237
    RobD said:

    Doesn’t the Grieve amendment make prorougibg b
    near impossible anyway?

    I thought that wasn't selected for consideration?
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1152122/brexit-news-boris-johnson-latest-no-deal-dominic-grieve-amendement-tory-leadership
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    Doesn’t the Grieve amendment make prorougibg b
    near impossible anyway?

    I thought that wasn't selected for consideration?
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1152122/brexit-news-boris-johnson-latest-no-deal-dominic-grieve-amendement-tory-leadership
    Thanks, not keeping up these days. Lost by a single vote, and a government whip forgot to vote?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Is rejoin a realistic prospect ?

    I'm not convinced that the EU would accept the UK back in, unless membership carried broad cross party support like it used to; somewhere around 70 / 30 type numbers.

    Why would the EU want to accept the UK with an explicitly anti EU conservative party likely to come to power at some point and start the whole process again.

    The UK would find it very hard to rejoin. England, Scotland and Wales would be warmly welcomed.
    Scotland for sure where membership would enjoy broad popular support.

    E&W not so much; The EU would be signing up to play Russian roulette for ever, one wrong election result and they're back in the same drama.

    Frankly, the benefits of E&W membership don't outweigh the risks and hassles for the EU.
    English independence will radically change the country. For the better. The new, improved England will be welcomed by all as a breath of fresh air.

    Wales ditto.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    May made no effort whatsoever to reach out to other parties, nor to Scotland, Wales and NI. Her failure was thus sealed.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    btw as always, a great article from my favourite PB header writer.

    Ditto.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Off topic, what's the correct choice today if winning the toss at Lords, bat or bowl ?

    How is the pitch likely to hold up

    Not sure but I'll be there for the final. So lucky have won a ticket in the ballot. Shame my pal cannot be with me.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Off topic, what's the correct choice today if winning the toss at Lords, bat or bowl ?

    How is the pitch likely to hold up

    Good question.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    The government would almost certainly be immediately toppled and a general election

    I disagree with this. Prorogation wouldn't come out of the blue. Indeed, we're talking about it now. If the MPs have not acted to stop it from happening, I don't see why they'd act after it's happened.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-party-richard-tice-darroch-18206347

    Well, this is news to me. Maybe PB is already aware.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: ha. Considered two, and picked the wrong one. But there we are. The hedge got matched, though, making it flat.

    Will peruse the markets for value shortly, after my infusion of coffee.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited July 2019
    Excellent article. Shutting down Parliament to secure an outcome that has never endorsed by the British people would clearly be anti-democratic. If the Queen allows it this time it creates a precedent that can be cited by any government at any point in the future. On that basis, I can’t see it happening.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Off topic, what's the correct choice today if winning the toss at Lords, bat or bowl ?

    How is the pitch likely to hold up

    It is always the same. Choose to bat nine out of ten times. About the other toss, think about it, then choose to bat.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Off topic, what's the correct choice today if winning the toss at Lords, bat or bowl ?

    How is the pitch likely to hold up

    It is always the same. Choose to bat nine out of ten times. About the other toss, think about it, then choose to bat.
    I recall Ricky Ponting doing that and the Ozzies were bowled out for peanuts.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Yes - I did read an article on it yesterday evening
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    RobD said:

    Doesn’t the Grieve amendment make prorougibg b
    near impossible anyway?

    I thought that wasn't selected for consideration?
    I was puzzled by this. The position seems to be that Grieve had several amendments down. The key one that would have been binding wasn’t selected by Bercow, but another aimed at a similar outcome but merely as an indication of parliament’s view (advisory, to coin a phrase) was selected and agreed by a single vote (one of the Tory whips having forgotten to vote).
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it likely still wouldn't have passed, as he'd have faced a huge rebellion. Probably would have ended his leadership also.

    But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Prorogation would probably lead to civil unrest and an alternative Parliament being convened. It would be a monumentally foolish thing to do which is, of course, why Boris is quite likely to do it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Doesn’t the Grieve amendment make prorougibg b
    near impossible anyway?

    No. The one that would have was not selected by Laing
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    RobD said:

    Doesn’t the Grieve amendment make prorougibg b
    near impossible anyway?

    I thought that wasn't selected for consideration?
    Pulpstar said:

    Doesn’t the Grieve amendment make prorougibg b
    near impossible anyway?

    No. The one that would have was not selected by Laing
    But the one that was (which won by 1 vote) makes it very difficult.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    rkrkrk said:

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it likely still wouldn't have passed, as he'd have faced a huge rebellion. Probably would have ended his leadership also.

    But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
    Corbyn could have whipped abstention. Made Brexit a Tory decision. And be riding at 40% + in the polls.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,794

    rkrkrk said:

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it likely still wouldn't have passed, as he'd have faced a huge rebellion. Probably would have ended his leadership also.

    But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
    Corbyn could have whipped abstention. Made Brexit a Tory decision. And be riding at 40% + in the polls.
    And May could have whipped in favour of either the Ken Clarke CU vote or the SM 2.0 vote. Brexit delivered.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Off topic, what's the correct choice today if winning the toss at Lords, bat or bowl ?

    How is the pitch likely to hold up

    It is always the same. Choose to bat nine out of ten times. About the other toss, think about it, then choose to bat.
    I recall Ricky Ponting doing that and the Ozzies were bowled out for peanuts.
    Pissing down with rain might affect the decision
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    rkrkrk said:

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it likely still wouldn't have passed, as he'd have faced a huge rebellion. Probably would have ended his leadership also.

    But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
    Corbyn could have whipped abstention. Made Brexit a Tory decision. And be riding at 40% + in the polls.
    Most of his MPs would have ignored him. He would probably also have lost his job for it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Is rejoin a realistic prospect ?

    I'm not convinced that the EU would accept the UK back in, unless membership carried broad cross party support like it used to; somewhere around 70 / 30 type numbers.

    Why would the EU want to accept the UK with an explicitly anti EU conservative party likely to come to power at some point and start the whole process again.

    The UK would find it very hard to rejoin. England, Scotland and Wales would be warmly welcomed.
    Scotland for sure where membership would enjoy broad popular support.

    E&W not so much; The EU would be signing up to play Russian roulette for ever, one wrong election result and they're back in the same drama.

    Frankly, the benefits of E&W membership don't outweigh the risks and hassles for the EU.
    English independence will radically change the country. For the better. The new, improved England will be welcomed by all as a breath of fresh air.

    Wales ditto.
    I can't think of anything worse. A nation of little Englanders. Literally.

    Fresh air? Where?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Powerful thread header. Absolutely agree that we are well into dangerous precedent territory.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,267
    I doubt if most voters have really thought about proroguing Parliament in quite the dramatic terms that Alastair (correctly) presents it, so it is not really likely that 67% of Tories are saying "I don't care about democracy", and if it really happened I expect support for it would melt quite quickly. For that reason, it's unlikely to happen.

    What is more worrying is that a strong leadership contender found it unwise to rule it out, since unwillingness to rule out an obviously bonkers idea is not a very promising characteristic for a leader. The Tory leadership contest has been dominated by the concept, "Tell me what you want and I'll pretend to agree with you". The outcome is that almost nobody on any side of the debate feels any degree of confidence in predicting what the new government will actually do. That, too, is unhealthy in a democracy.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    It casts a new light on Richard Tice's interview with Kirsty on Newsnight where he suggested there were only two good candidates for the the post of US Ambassador. Himself or Farage.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    Unwillingness to rule out an obviously bonkers idea is not a very promising characteristic for a leader. The Tory leadership contest has been dominated by the concept, "Tell me what you want and I'll pretend to agree with you". The outcome is that almost nobody on any side of the debate feels any degree of confidence in predicting what the new government will actually do. That, too, is unhealthy in a democracy.

    They'll be talking about tuition fee write offs, renationalisation of water companies without compensation and welfare cuts to pay for them before you know it...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it likely still wouldn't have passed, as he'd have faced a huge rebellion. Probably would have ended his leadership also.

    But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
    Corbyn could have whipped abstention. Made Brexit a Tory decision. And be riding at 40% + in the polls.
    Most of his MPs would have ignored him. He would probably also have lost his job for it.
    MPs have already voted 5-1 to remove him and he's still there. Why would that suddenly change now?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it likely still wouldn't have passed, as he'd have faced a huge rebellion. Probably would have ended his leadership also.

    But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
    Corbyn could have whipped abstention. Made Brexit a Tory decision. And be riding at 40% + in the polls.
    Most of his MPs would have ignored him. He would probably also have lost his job for it.
    MPs have already voted 5-1 to remove him and he's still there. Why would that suddenly change now?
    Membership would have turned against him for attempting to abstain and allow a Tory Brexit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    What a shit legacy Hammond will have left then for the incoming PM - Macron in charge of a No Deal Brexit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964

    rkrkrk said:

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it likely still wouldn't have passed, as he'd have faced a huge rebellion. Probably would have ended his leadership also.

    But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
    Corbyn could have whipped abstention. Made Brexit a Tory decision. And be riding at 40% + in the polls.
    And May could have whipped in favour of either the Ken Clarke CU vote or the SM 2.0 vote. Brexit delivered.
    Tell me again, about how May whips the DUP.

    Fantasy. With a side-order of twaddle.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    rkrkrk said:

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it likely still wouldn't have passed, as he'd have faced a huge rebellion. Probably would have ended his leadership also.

    But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
    Corbyn could have whipped abstention. Made Brexit a Tory decision. And be riding at 40% + in the polls.
    And May could have whipped in favour of either the Ken Clarke CU vote or the SM 2.0 vote. Brexit delivered.
    Tell me again, about how May whips the DUP.
    With a horsewhip would be a fairly popular start.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    What a shit legacy Hammond will have left then for the incoming PM - Macron in charge of a No Deal Brexit.
    What do you think he could have done about that? Occupy Calais?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Betting on the Dem nomination is now.... "Russia's work" https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/1150165870641131521
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    ydoethur said:
    Not again this wasted Friday afternoon but if you read the story ... no forget it
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    edited July 2019
    I suspect it would be mechanically difficult to execute Brexit on a prorogation. There are too many actors that need to buy in. As Alastair and Nick point out, it's the lack of commitment to democracy that's the big worry.

    On the header graphic from Vote Leave. The EU Court is a line of defence for a country that is part of the EU system but has no representation in it. It protects our citizens and businesses from arbitrary treatment by requiring EU counterparties to follow the same rules we do. Norway is very clear about the importance of the EU Court in maintaining a level playing field (The EFTA Court is nominally a separate institution from the CJEU).
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    You couldn't make it up and of course people like Jezziah on here think it is perfectly acceptable. 'Do as I say not as I do'
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,884

    rkrkrk said:

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it likely still wouldn't have passed, as he'd have faced a huge rebellion. Probably would have ended his leadership also.

    But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
    Corbyn could have whipped abstention. Made Brexit a Tory decision. And be riding at 40% + in the polls.
    Why would Labour be at 40+?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    What a shit legacy Hammond will have left then for the incoming PM - Macron in charge of a No Deal Brexit.

    Hammond campaigned against it.

    You voted for it.

    Suck it up...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    Dura_Ace said:

    rkrkrk said:

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it likely still wouldn't have passed, as he'd have faced a huge rebellion. Probably would have ended his leadership also.

    But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
    Corbyn could have whipped abstention. Made Brexit a Tory decision. And be riding at 40% + in the polls.
    Why would Labour be at 40+?
    Because the LibDems would have been taken out of thir oxygen tank....
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    rkrkrk said:

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it likely still wouldn't have passed, as he'd have faced a huge rebellion. Probably would have ended his leadership also.

    But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
    Corbyn could have whipped abstention. Made Brexit a Tory decision. And be riding at 40% + in the polls.
    And May could have whipped in favour of either the Ken Clarke CU vote or the SM 2.0 vote. Brexit delivered.
    Tell me again, about how May whips the DUP.

    Fantasy. With a side-order of twaddle.
    Ken Clarke vote was lost by 3, she didn't need the DUP because that option had the backing of most of Labour.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited July 2019
    17 million people voted to Leave the EU in 2016, more than have voted for any party or any referendum question in UK history and yet over 3 years after the vote and 4 months after the original exit date was due we are still in the EU. The convincing win of the Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections only served to show few people have changed their mind since.

    Of course proroguing Parliament is not ideal but if Parliament refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement, which it has rejected 3 times and continues to prefer further extension or even revoking Article 50 altogether to leaving with No Deal then there is no alternative. In any case as I understand the intention would be merely to prorogue Parliament at the end of October to force Brexit and No Deal through as a last resort to ensure we do actually leave the EU on October 31st with the expectation of a general election then in November
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,794

    rkrkrk said:

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it likely still wouldn't have passed, as he'd have faced a huge rebellion. Probably would have ended his leadership also.

    But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
    Corbyn could have whipped abstention. Made Brexit a Tory decision. And be riding at 40% + in the polls.
    And May could have whipped in favour of either the Ken Clarke CU vote or the SM 2.0 vote. Brexit delivered.
    Tell me again, about how May whips the DUP.

    Fantasy. With a side-order of twaddle.
    Why on Earth would she need the DUP in order to overturn a majority of 3?
    Or even 21?
    Considering that the payroll vote, you know, didn't vote. And most of the "against" were Tories who could have been arm-twisted.

    Did you not notice the indicative votes at all?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    Sic semper tyrannis.

    That’s what we’ll all be saying if Boris Johnson carries out this constitutional obscenity.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    For £40.000 a year school you'd hope every girl would have their own swimming pool
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    edited July 2019
    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:
    Not again this wasted Friday afternoon but if you read the story ... no forget it
    I've read your comments on it, which seem fair enough (and in my experience forced academisation of failing schools using private companies is usually a disaster).

    But I have read the story and I still don't see how he can afford it. Nor does he declare a scholarship in his register of interests. (https://present.brighton-hove.gov.uk/mgDeclarationSubmission.aspx?UID=114074&HID=2907&FID=0&HPID=28895003)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547

    What a shit legacy Hammond will have left then for the incoming PM - Macron in charge of a No Deal Brexit.
    Brexit is the failure it was always going to be, given the false assumptions it was predicated on. The question is how we deal with that failure. No good answers, but interesting in a grim way.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,884

    Dura_Ace said:

    rkrkrk said:

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it likely still wouldn't have passed, as he'd have faced a huge rebellion. Probably would have ended his leadership also.

    But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
    Corbyn could have whipped abstention. Made Brexit a Tory decision. And be riding at 40% + in the polls.
    Why would Labour be at 40+?
    Because the LibDems would have been taken out of thir oxygen tank....
    So Libdem voters would switch to Labour because Labour helped Brexit happen. Copy that.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,267
    A Government with no overall control can do three things: (1) call an election to try to get overall control (2) insist on party policy ("red lines") and try to get a majority anyway (3) compromise on party policy to try to get the Opposition to help.

    May tried (1) and (2) but she never seriously tried (3), and it's unreasonable to expect any opposition to sign up to (2). In fairness she'd probably have been forced out by her own party if she'd offered to give up the key customs union red line. But that's not the Opposition's fault either.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    edited July 2019

    Prorogation would probably lead to civil unrest and an alternative Parliament being convened. It would be a monumentally foolish thing to do which is, of course, why Boris is quite likely to do it.

    I honestly don't think it gets past Privy Council or, even if so, I wonder whether Black Rod gets through the doors of either or both Lords and Commons. No need to reconvene if you haven't accepted prorogation. Indeed MPs just mooting the idea that the Queen's official will.be met with genuine, not ceremonial, resistance should be enough to see off prorogation as an idea.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:
    Not again this wasted Friday afternoon but if you read the story ... no forget it
    I've read your comments on it, which seem fair enough (and in my experience forced academisation of failing schools using private companies is usually a disaster).

    But I have read the story and I still don't see how he can afford it. Nor does he declare a scholarship in his register of interests. (https://present.brighton-hove.gov.uk/mgDeclarationSubmission.aspx?UID=114074&HID=2907&FID=0&HPID=28895003)
    Neither can I, maybe a rich partner or grand parents possibly.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:
    Not again this wasted Friday afternoon but if you read the story ... no forget it
    I've read your comments on it, which seem fair enough (and in my experience forced academisation of failing schools using private companies is usually a disaster).

    But I have read the story and I still don't see how he can afford it. Nor does he declare a scholarship in his register of interests. (https://present.brighton-hove.gov.uk/mgDeclarationSubmission.aspx?UID=114074&HID=2907&FID=0&HPID=28895003)
    Presumably the councillor's daughter has a mother who has a say in her own daughter's education and possibly contributes financially.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    Is rejoin a realistic prospect ?

    I'm not convinced that the EU would accept the UK back in, unless membership carried broad cross party support like it used to; somewhere around 70 / 30 type numbers.

    Why would the EU want to accept the UK with an explicitly anti EU conservative party likely to come to power at some point and start the whole process again.

    The UK would find it very hard to rejoin. England, Scotland and Wales would be warmly welcomed.
    Wales voted Leave just like England
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited July 2019

    rkrkrk said:

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it likely still wouldn't have passed, as he'd have faced a huge rebellion. Probably would have ended his leadership also.

    But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
    Corbyn could have whipped abstention. Made Brexit a Tory decision. And be riding at 40% + in the polls.
    And May could have whipped in favour of either the Ken Clarke CU vote or the SM 2.0 vote. Brexit delivered.
    More MPs voted for May's Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 than either Clarke's CU or SM 2.0 and I doubt whipping would have changed it much.

    Plus neither Clarke's CU or SM 2.0 enable the Canada style FTA with the EU most voters want

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    Dura_Ace said:



    So Libdem voters would switch to Labour because Labour helped Brexit happen. Copy that.

    They wouldn't have become LibDem voters in the first place, is the point. May managed the amazing twin feats of bringing both Farage and the LibDems back from the political dead. Aided by Labour, who are on circa 25% as a result.

    Rather, they could have been able to point to ongoing Tory infighting about the actual form of Brexit, suck air through teeth and mutter to nodding heads "wouldn't have done it like that myself...". All the while, the LibDems ploughing their lonley furrow as the party of Rejoin.

    But of course, snide little sorties are your forte.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,182
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    17 million people voted to Leave the EU in 2016, more than have voted for any party or any referendum question in UK history and yet over 3 years after the vote and 4 months after the original exit date was due we are still in the EU. The convincing win of the Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections only served to show few people have changed their mind since.

    Of course proroguing Parliament is not ideal but if Parliament refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement, which it has rejected 3 times and continues to prefer further extension or even revoking Article 50 altogether to leaving with No Deal then there is no alternative. In any case as I understand the intention would be merely to prorogue Parliament at the end of October to force Brexit and No Deal through as a last resort to ensure we do actually leave the EU on October 31st with the expectation of a general election then in November

    Dangerous delusions. If you are so confident that the will of the people is as you say, then why not test it with a general election?

    Or a second referendum?

    Because it seems to me that the country has changed its mind and now does not wish to proceed with Brexit and absolutely not with a no deal.

    So using a constitutional coup to ram through a policy which most people now think is at best wrong headed will lead to much bigger demonstrations than last time... only this time they are likely to be carrying torches and burning Conservatives in effigy. Anyone who actively contemplates this anti democratic coup may well end up being hanged from the highest tree.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    HYUFD said:

    Is rejoin a realistic prospect ?

    I'm not convinced that the EU would accept the UK back in, unless membership carried broad cross party support like it used to; somewhere around 70 / 30 type numbers.

    Why would the EU want to accept the UK with an explicitly anti EU conservative party likely to come to power at some point and start the whole process again.

    The UK would find it very hard to rejoin. England, Scotland and Wales would be warmly welcomed.
    Wales voted Leave just like England
    The pro-EU movement is flourishing in Wales, just like England.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited July 2019
    At last an interview where Hunt was good! He was asked what he thought about Douglas Jay's idea of putting Stanley Johnson in as US Ambassador. 'You're laughing' said the interviewer. 'Why are you laughing?' 'A lot of things the Johnson's say are funny' said Hunt. 'Don't you think so?

    He's quite likeable when he takes the poker out of his bum.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    Is rejoin a realistic prospect ?

    I'm not convinced that the EU would accept the UK back in, unless membership carried broad cross party support like it used to; somewhere around 70 / 30 type numbers.

    Why would the EU want to accept the UK with an explicitly anti EU conservative party likely to come to power at some point and start the whole process again.

    The UK would find it very hard to rejoin. England, Scotland and Wales would be warmly welcomed.
    Wales voted Leave just like England
    The pro-EU movement is flourishing in Wales, just like England.
    The Brexit Party won the European Parliament elections in Wales in May, just like in England
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    What happens when those expressing diehard! Support for Johnson find they have been made junior minister for counting paper clips?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    17 million people voted to Leave the EU in 2016, more than have voted for any party or any referendum question in UK history and yet over 3 years after the vote and 4 months after the original exit date was due we are still in the EU. The convincing win of the Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections only served to show few people have changed their mind since.

    Of course proroguing Parliament is not ideal but if Parliament refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement, which it has rejected 3 times and continues to prefer further extension or even revoking Article 50 altogether to leaving with No Deal then there is no alternative. In any case as I understand the intention would be merely to prorogue Parliament at the end of October to force Brexit and No Deal through as a last resort to ensure we do actually leave the EU on October 31st with the expectation of a general election then in November

    Dangerous delusions. If you are so confident that the will of the people is as you say, then why not test it with a general election?

    Or a second referendum?

    Because it seems to me that the country has changed its mind and now does not wish to proceed with Brexit and absolutely not with a no deal.

    So using a constitutional coup to ram through a policy which most people now think is at best wrong headed will lead to much bigger demonstrations than last time... only this time they are likely to be carrying torches and burning Conservatives in effigy. Anyone who actively contemplates this may well be hanged from the highest tree.
    We have not even delivered the result of the first referendum yet.

    If voters want to back a second referendum they can vote Labour or LD at the next general election but Brexit has to be delivered to respect democracy, if it is not and we extend again the only people being burned in effigy and hung from the nearest tree will be diehard Remainers
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is rejoin a realistic prospect ?

    I'm not convinced that the EU would accept the UK back in, unless membership carried broad cross party support like it used to; somewhere around 70 / 30 type numbers.

    Why would the EU want to accept the UK with an explicitly anti EU conservative party likely to come to power at some point and start the whole process again.

    The UK would find it very hard to rejoin. England, Scotland and Wales would be warmly welcomed.
    Wales voted Leave just like England
    The pro-EU movement is flourishing in Wales, just like England.
    The Brexit Party won the European Parliament elections in Wales in May, just like in England
    They got fewer votes than Plaid Cymru, the Lib Dems and Greens.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,794
    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.

    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it likely still wouldn't have passed, as he'd have faced a huge rebellion. Probably would have ended his leadership also.

    But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
    Corbyn could have whipped abstention. Made Brexit a Tory decision. And be riding at 40% + in the polls.
    And May could have whipped in favour of either the Ken Clarke CU vote or the SM 2.0 vote. Brexit delivered.
    More MPs voted for May's Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 than either Clarke's CU or SM 2.0 and I doubt whipping would have changed it much.

    Plus neither Clarke's CU or SM 2.0 enable the Canada style FTA with the EU most voters want

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-
    Do you really think that the Withdrawal Agreement, on a free vote and without any of the payroll vote, would have come anywhere near the vote score of the CU indicative vote?

    Seriously?

    MV3 was after the most aggressive and sustained whipping campaign possible, and it fell short by a lot.

    MV1 was a bit closer to the "natural" and pre-whipped state of the House's feeling, but still heavily whipped. That sort of whipping operation on CU would certainly have got it over the line.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    edited July 2019
    rkrkrk said:

    Powerful thread header. Absolutely agree that we are well into dangerous precedent territory.

    It is. A great header and I agree with every word. There was a time when I might have thought such concerns hyperbolic but not any more.

    One of the most concerning aspects is the way the No Dealers seem so insouciant about the use Corbyn and co might make of the powers they propose using to push through a No Deal Brexit. On the one hand, they think he is very dangerous and must be kept at all costs out of No 10 and, on the other, will happily set a constitutional precedent which, if he did become PM, would truly make him dangerous.

    As I put it in my own thread header the other day:

    “one policy (Brexit, enacted in one particular way) is seen as so important that virtually anything is acceptable to achieve it, including proroguing Parliament. That this might undermine the very institutions and conventions which any democratic and stable society requires to function, especially if in the hands of political opponents, seems irrelevant. No-one seems to ask themselves the question: “Would I want my opponent to have this power? If no, I should not have it either.”

    Prorogation of Parliament should simply be out of the question for any democratic politician. That it isn’t, that Boris won’t rule it out, is - as @NickPalmer has also observed - an indication of the unfitness for office of both Boris and his Parliamentary supporters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is rejoin a realistic prospect ?

    I'm not convinced that the EU would accept the UK back in, unless membership carried broad cross party support like it used to; somewhere around 70 / 30 type numbers.

    Why would the EU want to accept the UK with an explicitly anti EU conservative party likely to come to power at some point and start the whole process again.

    The UK would find it very hard to rejoin. England, Scotland and Wales would be warmly welcomed.
    Wales voted Leave just like England
    The pro-EU movement is flourishing in Wales, just like England.
    The Brexit Party won the European Parliament elections in Wales in May, just like in England
    They got fewer votes than Plaid Cymru, the Lib Dems and Greens.
    Not when you add the Tories and UKIP too
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Scott_P said:
    The divine right of kings makes a comeback, this time dressed up as the divine right of No Deal Brexiteers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited July 2019

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.

    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it ould have meant sacrificing her career.
    Corbyn could have whipped abstention. Made Brexit a Tory decision. And be riding at 40% + in the polls.
    And May could have whipped in favour of either the Ken Clarke CU vote or the SM 2.0 vote. Brexit delivered.
    More MPs voted for May's Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 than either Clarke's CU or SM 2.0 and I doubt whipping would have changed it much.

    Plus neither Clarke's CU or SM 2.0 enable the Canada style FTA with the EU most voters want

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-
    Do you really think that the Withdrawal Agreement, on a free vote and without any of the payroll vote, would have come anywhere near the vote score of the CU indicative vote?

    Seriously?

    MV3 was after the most aggressive and sustained whipping campaign possible, and it fell short by a lot.

    MV1 was a bit closer to the "natural" and pre-whipped state of the House's feeling, but still heavily whipped. That sort of whipping operation on CU would certainly have got it over the line.
    MV3 got more votes than Clarke's permanent Customs Union, those are the facts.

    in any case Deal plus Customs Union does not enable us to do our own trade deals and is not therefore Brexit and May would have been toppled as Tory leader within 5 minutes had she even tried to whip it as whipped or not a comfortable majority of Tory MPs would still have voted against it and indeed had she whipped for it most Labour and LDs and SNP MPs would also have voted against it as another 'Tory Brexit' without EUref2 anyway
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is rejoin a realistic prospect ?

    I'm not convinced that the EU would accept the UK back in, unless membership carried broad cross party support like it used to; somewhere around 70 / 30 type numbers.

    Why would the EU want to accept the UK with an explicitly anti EU conservative party likely to come to power at some point and start the whole process again.

    The UK would find it very hard to rejoin. England, Scotland and Wales would be warmly welcomed.
    Wales voted Leave just like England
    The pro-EU movement is flourishing in Wales, just like England.
    The Brexit Party won the European Parliament elections in Wales in May, just like in England
    They got fewer votes than Plaid Cymru, the Lib Dems and Greens.
    Not when you add the Tories and UKIP too
    Why would you add the Tories? They're the party of Brexit betrayal.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum and then voted down every deal put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
    There should have been enough adults in the room in both major parties to swallow some dead rats and get a deal over the line instead of playing politics with it

    Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it likely still wouldn't have passed, as he'd have faced a huge rebellion. Probably would have ended his leadership also.

    But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
    Corbyn could've whipped abstention. Made Brexit Tory. Snip
    And May could have whipped in favour of either the Ken Clarke CU vote or the SM 2.0 vote. Brexit delivered.
    More MPs voted for May's Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 than either Clarke's CU or SM 2.0 and I doubt whipping would have changed it much.

    Plus neither Clarke's CU or SM 2.0 enable the Canada style FTA with the EU most voters want

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-
    More voted for MV3, WITH GOVT WHIPPING for it, than voted for other options, WITHOUT GOVT WHIPPING for it.

    The point being made is whether May could have got a different approach past by shipping differently, the capitalised parts are key in gauging what won a hypothetical popularity contest, and it seems fairly likely that MV3 didn't.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Cyclefree said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Powerful thread header. Absolutely agree that we are well into dangerous precedent territory.

    It is. A great header and I agree with every word. There was a time when I might have thought such concerns hyperbolic but not any more.

    One of the most concerning aspects is the way the No Dealers seem so insouciant about the use Corbyn and co might make of the powers they propose using to push through a No Deal Brexit. On the one hand, they think he is very dangerous and must be kept at all costs out of No 10 and, on the other, will happily set a constitutional precedent which, if he did become PM, would truly make him dangerous.

    As I put it in my own thread header the other day:

    “one policy (Brexit, enacted in one particular way) is seen as so important that virtually anything is acceptable to achieve it, including proroguing Parliament. That this might undermine the very institutions and conventions which any democratic and stable society requires to function, especially if in the hands of political opponents, seems irrelevant. No-one seems to ask themselves the question: “Would I want my opponent to have this power? If no, I should not have it either.”

    Prorogation of Parliament should simply be out of the question for any democratic politician. That it isn’t, that Boris won’t rule it out, is - as @NickPalmer has also observed - an indication of the unfitness for office of both Boris and his Parliamentary supporters.
    I think the last time Parliament was prorogued in such a way for such a reason was when Charles II dissolved it in 1681 to frustrate its attempts to cut the Duke of York out of the royal succession.

    It ended with two civil wars, a revolution in 1688, plus several invasions of and from Scotland and Ireland until 1746.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    HYUFD said:

    17 million people voted to Leave the EU in 2016, more than have voted for any party or any referendum question in UK history and yet over 3 years after the vote and 4 months after the original exit date was due we are still in the EU. The convincing win of the Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections only served to show few people have changed their mind since.

    Of course proroguing Parliament is not ideal but if Parliament refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement, which it has rejected 3 times and continues to prefer further extension or even revoking Article 50 altogether to leaving with No Deal then there is no alternative. In any case as I understand the intention would be merely to prorogue Parliament at the end of October to force Brexit and No Deal through as a last resort to ensure we do actually leave the EU on October 31st with the expectation of a general election then in November

    The government in the Westminster system only has democratic legitimacy because it has majority support in the Commons. If the government prorogues Parliament because it does not have majority support in the Commons then that is a coup.

    The alternative is to elect a majority of MPs who will vote for no deal. That's how our democracy works.

    I would rather have PM Farage, elected on a manifesto of no deal, than PM Johnson prorogue Parliament to achieve the same. Can you not see the difference?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865
    Well, quite. The idea of shutting down parliament to engineer a chaotic, unnegotiated exit from the EU is unconscionable.

    As it happens, I am confident that even a politician as free from principle and integrity as Boris Johnson will not go anywhere near such an outrage.

    What he will do (IMO) is agree an extension and try to pass the Withdrawal Agreement. Sooner or later, the essential truth - that we must ratify the WA in order to deliver Brexit - will surely dawn and prevail.

    It did not happen on TM's watch, sadly for her, but perhaps it will on BoJo's.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Roger said:


    For £40.000 a year school you'd hope every girl would have their own swimming pool
    Thanks to the excellent teaching in Roedean's History of Art department, they can probably afford two each.
    https://www.itv.com/news/meridian/2019-07-07/constable-seascape-found-by-pupil-in-schools-old-store-cupboard/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is rejoin a realistic prospect ?

    I'm not convinced that the EU would accept the UK back in, unless membership carried broad cross party support like it used to; somewhere around 70 / 30 type numbers.

    Why would the EU want to accept the UK with an explicitly anti EU conservative party likely to come to power at some point and start the whole process again.

    The UK would find it very hard to rejoin. England, Scotland and Wales would be warmly welcomed.
    Wales voted Leave just like England
    The pro-EU movement is flourishing in Wales, just like England.
    The Brexit Party won the European Parliament elections in Wales in May, just like in England
    They got fewer votes than Plaid Cymru, the Lib Dems and Greens.
    Not when you add the Tories and UKIP too
    Why would you add the Tories? They're the party of Brexit betrayal.
    The Tories were the party of Brexit with the Withdrawal Agreement under May
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    kinabalu said:

    Well, quite. The idea of shutting down parliament to engineer a chaotic, unnegotiated exit from the EU is unconscionable.

    As it happens, I am confident that even a politician as free from principle and integrity as Boris Johnson will not go anywhere near such an outrage.

    What he will do (IMO) is agree an extension and try to pass the Withdrawal Agreement. Sooner or later, the essential truth - that we must ratify the WA in order to deliver Brexit - will surely dawn and prevail.

    It did not happen on TM's watch, sadly for her, but perhaps it will on BoJo's.

    Yes. Despite HY's assurances, it is worth noting that Bozo has slightly shifted his explanation and now the reason why can't consider any extension in advance is that it would display weakness to the other side, making it more difficult to get a good deal.

    What the Bozo appears to be lining up is an extension once he has got (or is on the way toward) what he expects to be able to sell as a good deal. Once we have this there is no need to bluff about the exit date, he'll say.

    I doubt this will wash with the Tory unwashed but, by then, what choice will they have other than to swallow it?

  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited July 2019
    Peter Jay gone completely Sid and Doris....Suggests Stanley Johnson for Ambassador "though I confess he's a very good friend of mine" He then suggested Jacob Rees-Mogg 'because the Americans like peope with a good English accent'.

    I suppose when you got your biggest job through nepotism your values become skewed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    In broader terms it's a very sad state of affairs all round;

    I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum and then voted down every deal put before the house.

    The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.

    At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.

    Labour MPs voted in large numbers (whipped by Corbyn) for a number of Brexit options, just not May's. Also more Labour MPs voted for the Tories Brexit than Tories voted for Labour's Brexit.

    Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
    There should have been enough adults in the room l vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
    If Corbyn had whipped to back May's deal it likely still wouldn't have passed, as he'd have faced a huge rebellion. Probably would have ended his leadership also.

    But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
    Corbyn could've whipped abstention. Made Brexit Tory. Snip
    And May could have whipped in favour of either the Ken Clarke CU vote or the SM 2.0 vote. Brexit delivered.
    More MPs voted for May's Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 than either Clarke's CU or SM 2.0 and I doubt whipping would have changed it much.

    Plus neither Clarke's CU or SM 2.0 enable the Canada style FTA with the EU most voters want

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-
    More voted for MV3, WITH GOVT WHIPPING for it, than voted for other options, WITHOUT GOVT WHIPPING for it.

    The point being made is whether May could have got a different approach past by shipping differently, the capitalised parts are key in gauging what won a hypothetical popularity contest, and it seems fairly likely that MV3 didn't.
    Nothing won a hypothetical popularity contest as nothing won the indicative votes either.

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    A school friend of mine who grew up on the same council estate has spent a big chunck of his time since we left school campaigning for the Labour Party in rain and shine, good times and bad. (At one stage he was the only branch member and held meetings with himself.) He's got 40 years of knocking on doors behind him.

    Here's what he told my sister. The people on his patch who he knows actually turn out to vote are pretty much leavers,

    Dura_Ace said:



    So Libdem voters would switch to Labour because Labour helped Brexit happen. Copy that.

    They wouldn't have become LibDem voters in the first place, is the point. May managed the amazing twin feats of bringing both Farage and the LibDems back from the political dead. Aided by Labour, who are on circa 25% as a result.

    Rather, they could have been able to point to ongoing Tory infighting about the actual form of Brexit, suck air through teeth and mutter to nodding heads "wouldn't have done it like that myself...". All the while, the LibDems ploughing their lonley furrow as the party of Rejoin.

    But of course, snide little sorties are your forte.
    That is a really good point. It is worth remembering just how unlikely the situation we find ourselves in is. Remember the days when May was riding high in the polls and 100 seat majorties were being forecast? I thought then that her position wasn't as strong as it appeared because it was vulnerable to a revival by either the Lib Dems on one side or UKIP on the other. Neither seemed especially likely. Both simultaneously?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Well, quite. The idea of shutting down parliament to engineer a chaotic, unnegotiated exit from the EU is unconscionable.

    As it happens, I am confident that even a politician as free from principle and integrity as Boris Johnson will not go anywhere near such an outrage.

    What he will do (IMO) is agree an extension and try to pass the Withdrawal Agreement. Sooner or later, the essential truth - that we must ratify the WA in order to deliver Brexit - will surely dawn and prevail.

    It did not happen on TM's watch, sadly for her, but perhaps it will on BoJo's.

    Yes. Despite HY's assurances, it is worth noting that Bozo has slightly shifted his explanation and now the reason why can't consider any extension in advance is that it would display weakness to the other side, making it more difficult to get a good deal.

    What the Bozo appears to be lining up is an extension once he has got (or is on the way toward) what he expects to be able to sell as a good deal. Once we have this there is no need to bluff about the exit date, he'll say.

    I doubt this will wash with the Tory unwashed but, by then, what choice will they have other than to swallow it?

    Decamp to the Brexit party. Which is why Jeremy Corbyn, if he has any sense, will make his precondition for an early election a negotiated extension of the Article 50 period to 31 December.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    O/T interesting novelty on Channel4 today. Sky basically getting a days free advertising whilst allowing us to watch the cricket. Wonder if they might try it more often? Probably a good time for them to tell broadcast to those that don’t know that Murdoch doesn’t own Sky any more (a major reason often cited why people don’t get it).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited July 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Well, quite. The idea of shutting down parliament to engineer a chaotic, unnegotiated exit from the EU is unconscionable.

    As it happens, I am confident that even a politician as free from principle and integrity as Boris Johnson will not go anywhere near such an outrage.

    What he will do (IMO) is agree an extension and try to pass the Withdrawal Agreement. Sooner or later, the essential truth - that we must ratify the WA in order to deliver Brexit - will surely dawn and prevail.

    It did not happen on TM's watch, sadly for her, but perhaps it will on BoJo's.

    Given the Withdrawal Agreement fell short by 58 votes even at MV3 only a Tory majority will pass it, there will never be enough Labour MPs who will back it, so that requires a Boris majority at an early autumn general election not further extension.

    If not I understand the Boris team will prorugue Parliament in October to force Brexit on October 31st with No Deal and no further extension or revoke with a snap general election in November after Brexit has been delivered
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    More voted for MV3, WITH GOVT WHIPPING for it, than voted for other options, WITHOUT GOVT WHIPPING for it.

    The point being made is whether May could have got a different approach past by shipping differently, the capitalised parts are key in gauging what won a hypothetical popularity contest, and it seems fairly likely that MV3 didn't.

    Nothing won a hypothetical popularity contest as nothing won the indicative votes either.
    The 'hypothetical' bit is to imagine the results if the government had actively backed one of the other options and delivered the payroll vote...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,048

    HYUFD said:

    Is rejoin a realistic prospect ?

    I'm not convinced that the EU would accept the UK back in, unless membership carried broad cross party support like it used to; somewhere around 70 / 30 type numbers.

    Why would the EU want to accept the UK with an explicitly anti EU conservative party likely to come to power at some point and start the whole process again.

    The UK would find it very hard to rejoin. England, Scotland and Wales would be warmly welcomed.
    Wales voted Leave just like England
    The pro-EU movement is flourishing in Wales, just like England.
    You're deluding yourself (statement of the obvious I know) if you think more than a handful of people who weren't already pro-EU have become pro-EU post referendum. People are pessimistic about the outcome. That's a completely different thing. A moderately successful cowing is not a flourishing of goodwill. It is in fact the opposite.
This discussion has been closed.