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https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/bulletins/retailsales/june2019
With retail sales having increased by 10% since the Referendum we should be grateful that there's also been a big increase in exports otherwise the trade deficit would be at very high levels.
And while internet retailing is showing the biggest gains store retailing, with the exception of department stores, is also doing well.
Despite the doom and gloom about high streets and high profile retail redundancies there are clearly lots of retail businesses who are doing very nicely.
If not all the 30% increase in import prices is passed on to the consumer (say the market can only cope with a 20% increase in retail price) then there is a margin hit and reduced profitability.
And if sales are up 10% but prices up 20% then the actual amount of physical goods sold is down 9% or so.
Has it been formally killed off again, or is it still pending a vote in the Commons?
If my memory is right we're still using the 2010 boundaries, that themselves were implemented late, rather than in 2005 as they should have been, and so are based on the 2001 electoral register. Is this a dubious record in the period of universal suffrage?
Do you think that is possible given the challenges which will arise, including very likely a recession ?
As with all the political parties voters views seem to be ignored at the expense of members. For me that is a very bad thing but guess the activists across the parties feel differently.
Desirable? Different question.
Believe it or not but the amount of items which are being bought continues to increase.
https://ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/bulletins/profitabilityofukcompanies/januarytomarch2019#toc
https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/1151622607428608000
Oh. That is a must-watch.
For a long while it was unclear why she was backtracking on her Lancaster House speech. Now we know: wee Ruthie had got hold of her ear.
They’ve not taken the worst case scenario .
It makes sense for the two parties to co-operate to get as much of that agenda as possible. A large block of LibDem, Green, SNP MPs may be able to extract some of what they want from Labour (if they're the largest party). If PR can be achieved then there's no more need to co-operate.
If you really don't want to co-operate then be prepared for a Tory/Brexit government where you get nothing.
Don't game FPTP and stay pure seems to be your approach.
You’d think I’d know all the Indian sub continent stuff.
At the moment given Boris' commitment to Leave on October 31st Deal or No Deal, including proroguing Parliament at the end of October for a November Queen's Speech to ensure Brexit on October 31st it is hard to see that not leading to a VONC beforehand with Grieve, Lee etc joining the opposition beforehand to back a VONC vote and likely forcing a general election or else a general election in November.
The only way we get a 2020 general election is likely if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by October 31st with enough Labour MPs voting for it to outweigh the ERG and thus we then enter the transition period. However hard to see that happening or Boris even putting forward the Withdrawal Agreement to the Commons again at the moment given his opposition to the backstop as stands and his desire to replace it with a technical solution
Working with the LDs gives them a shot at PR, which would entrench them forever. Surely worth a mass?
As for the LDs, I don't think many of our members want to do that deal. I don't doubt many of our voters do (when I canvass I notice the Venn Diagram of potential LDs or Greens is practically a circle), but our voters aren't all our members, and our members are more ideological. I voted LD at the last GE coz it was the only way of shifting the Tory, but our local party voted 66/33 to stand a candidate despite knowing we'd lose our deposit.
Considering the IMF and Treasury forecasts of what would happen in the period between a Brexit vote and actual exit turned out not to be just rubbish but complete and utter codswallop, OBR forecasts based on that modelling would have been equally codswallop.
Remember by now we were supposed to have had 500k of job losses and a recession, when instead we have the highest employment ever recorded in our entire history and wages outstripping inflation. In every single year since the referendum the OBR forecasts have been wrong and the deficit has come in below OBR forecasts despite the government then increasing spending on pet projects more than forecast.
Its almost as if economic modelling is based on assumptions that can be wrong and not an actual hard science that is perfectly accurate at all times.
TheWhiteRabbit said:
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As would I - but lets see the bigger picture. The number of chronic alcoholics in Scotland must surely outnumber the number of hard drug users by a factor of 50 or more.
you mentally challenged
https://obr.uk/download/fiscal-risks-report-july-2019/
No doubt the usual economic geniuses on the Leave side will be dismissing this serious and credible forecast as "project fear". Just looking at the forecast impact on the government finances, the cost of a hard Brexit is around £30bn a year, or about £550-600mn a week. Put that on your fucking bus.
No Deal will = Recession
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49027889
The OBR report makes for really grim reading
Personally, the depreciation of sterling will be the whammy which will hit the most. If there is a "hard Brexit" at end-October , I am working on the assumption of GBP = EUR. That will be about GBP = USD 1.12. Good for exporters, if you can get the paperwork regarding origin and standards sorted out.
It is Agriculture exporters who will take the biggest hit.
But this would all change if the DUP end the C&S agreement, a possibility which has been little discussed but is not impossible.
The last few years have demonstrated in a very real way how the British public can be right and the so-called experts can be wrong.
I think divergence to that scale would be... unlikely but could be something like that. (-1% change outwith London -2% mean /-4% London for instance)
Philip Hammond's negative view of no-deal Brexit is pure silliness: it could boost our economy by £80bn
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/16/philip-hammonds-negative-view-no-deal-brexit-pure-silliness/
Hmmm... so Shadsy’s 1/6 on LD victory at B&R is money in the bank?
Realistically the Greens best shot of picking up extra seats would be to take on Lab in Bristol W and Norwich S but the LDs would presumably also see these as targets. It shows that while there is a certain level of cooperation, the Greens and LDs are also competitors fishing in the same pool of voters.
The only things is, if you need to apply a pinch of salt to the OBR forecasts, how many buckets of salt do you need to apply to forecasts based on airy hand-waving which assure us that it will all be fine? Do these Leavers ever even countenance the possibility that they might be wrong and the experts might be at least roughly right? And what happens if the experts are roughly right?
The price of PR is gaming FPTP, unfortunately. 150 years of talk haven't changed the electoral system, despite hung parliaments in years like 1974 & 2010.
Lab won't offer it, or else it will offer it and later withdraw it; see Blair 1997-2001. Con won't even offer it; see Cameron 2010-15.
There are a few points I would make more broadly:
These estimates are produced by independent forecasters not the Treasury and have no relationship to the infamous 'project fear' documents.
The UK economy has clearly under performed since the Brexit referendum. Both GDP growth and business investment have fallen from among the strongest in the G7 to among the weakest.
GDP is now much closer to the BOE's much weaker post Brexit vote forecast than the pre vote forecast, even if it did initially perform better than the BoE expected post Brexit, largely in my view thanks to the quick negotiation of a transition arrangement in the WA - which of course is lost in a no deal Brexit.
Of course this is a forecast and it will be wrong with 100% certainty. But I see no reason to believe that it is a biased forecast. I think there are about equal chances of the outturn being worse than this or better - in fact I think risks are skewed to the downside because the global outlook will probably be worse than they forecast.
Expect a lot more.
Spoiler alert: They were as accurate as Rory McIlroy on the first hole today.