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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Follow the formbook when betting on Boris’s successor and choose an old Etonian
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Rory Stewart now has more chance of being next LD leader than next Tory leader, could defect as Chuka has left Labour for the yellows
Since Thatcher the LDs have had more public school educated leaders than the Tories, Ashdown, Bedford and Clegg, Westminster, 2 to 1 for the Tories, Cameron.
Boris, Eton, or Hunt, Charterhouse, will only level the score.
Ed Davey would put the LDs ahead again as he went to the independent Nottingham High School.
Even Labour have had Blair, Fettes and of course Corbyn went to a private prep school before grammar school.
His election can only happen now if the Tory party rediscovers its OneNation values and has flushed out the wild, english nationalist, bluemomentum members and MPs who will never elect Rory.
What are his odds for next-but-one LibDem leader?
Edit: Now I've seen that HYUFD (of all people!) has already said the above. Read before typing!
https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864
I do however expect his odds to be so low that laying him may make sense..
Obviously she has to be thrown out of the modern Labour party.
When John Major went the next 3 Tory leaders were Hague, IDS and Howard ie pretty much successively more rightwing each time until Cameron 8 years later. No reason the same could not happen once Theresa May departs next week.
Expect her to be expelled from the party before Christmas.
What I would say is that there are too many unknowns about the situation when Johnson goes.
Will it be in ten years time or before Xmas? Will he have taken Britain out of the EU (I refuse to use the ugly phrase "delivered Brexit")? Will he go out on a high or on a landslide defeat? Too many imponderables.
The one possibility I may stick a few quid on if the odds are generous is a technocrat like Lidington. In the event of a VONC, the Conservatives will have 14 days to regain the confidence of the House. The only answer to avoid a General Election may be to turn to that sort of figure. It isn't a likely outcome, but sufficiently credible for a long odds flutter.
And Philips may be towards the right of the current Labour membership, but "Blairite" is an odd description for someone who wasn't an MP until eight years after Blair left Number 10.
More Europe
More Europe
More Europe
More Europe
More Europe
Meanwhile the rest of the world continues to prosper.
But, alas, he seems to have no place in today's Tory party. It prefers someone who thinks waving kippers around is a substitute for thought.
Edited: just as Jess Phillips is one of the few who might make me reconsider Labour.
But it's all hypothetical. Their parties are in the hands of ignorant and malicious loons.
And she has spoken up for Jews. Unacceptable in today's Labour Party.
https://twitter.com/Trikkynikky1/status/1151816043305873409
But he's also weird and a liar.
Okay, that's pretty standard among politicians.
As to his competence I don't know but IIRC Dura has some typically caustic views.
Jess Phillips backed Yvette Cooper for Labour leader in 2015 and Owen Smith in 2016, that is Blairite now for most Labour members
Still. Much better and more fun when it isn't just Team Sky strangling the life out of it all.
He'll have to up his game to beat Blair and Cameron.
To be a good liar you need to be smoother and be convincing.
The idea that the school her child goes to, three out of thirty two thousand schools across the uk that have closed early in Fridays didn’t do so without some kind of connivance is unbelievable.
IIRC he's also made up some dodgy stats as well.
Pretty small stuff perhaps but also pretty stupid stuff.
1. If Brexit (and in particular No Deal Brexit) goes well, then the Conservative Party will not be looking at a foremer Remainer.
2. If it goes badly, then MPs from marginal seats likely won't get a chance to become Prime Minister.
I would instead look at a Brexit-y Old Etonian, and former Odey Asset Management alum, Kwasi Kwarteng*.
* I may be biased as he's a friend of mine.
Some of his views and conclusions are not quite there yet though - which is unsurprising, since he is a member of a Tory cabinet - but if he carries on thinking, he may get there yet.
Wow. Who knew?
7) Motherhood and apple pie
I don’t think he was in Cabinet (if he was I don’t remember him!), he never ran for leader as he pulled out after a few days, he didn’t bring many people along with him when he defected and now he is marooned in the Lib Dems
9) A chain gang on every farm
10) A sweat shop in every city
11) A shanty town in every suburb
One or two individuals wittering on about the "Boris Bounce" and how only Boris can lead the Conservatives to a GE majority should perhaps look at how the picture has changed with ComRes during the leadership campaign.
One of the big factors establishing Johnson's advantage was the poll published on 11th June showing with Boris as leader the Conservatives romping to a 140-seat landslide majority.
Next time the question was asked that figure had fallen to a 40 majority.
When ComRes asked the question this week "Boris Johnson is Prime Minister and Brexit was delivered on 31st October", the Conservative lead is just three points and the Commons is again deadlocked with Conservatives needing DUP support once again.
So that's a 140 seat majority gone in a month - I also suspect one of the reasons Boris attracted so much support among MPs was the ComRes poll showing only he could save the backbenchers from unemployment and the party from a damaging defeat. Now, that "evidence" is different. There's no Boris Bounce - even delivering Brexit doesn't deliver a majority.
One area where the pro-Johnson people have it right - if he goes to the country without having delivered Brexit on 31/10 the Conservative survivors will be the fifth largest group in the new Commons.
Hunt and IDS both contenders for Deputy PM. Penny Mordaunt expected to stay as Defence Secretary with Gove as Health Secretary and Zac Goldsmith Environment Secretary if Hancock becomes Chancellor ahead of Javid.
Jake Berry tipped for Business to replace Greg Clark along with
Liz Truss and Dominic Raab likely to replace Gauke at Justice. Priti Patel and Cleverly both tipped for party chairman (though Patel also rumoured to be Fox's replacement at International Trade). Gavin Williamson as Leader of the Commons or Transport Secretary also looks possible.
Jo Johnson a possible Education Secretary and John Whittingdale possibly returning as Culture Secretary.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/20/boris-johnson-will-do-first-24-hours-prime-minister/
It is barmy and will cause deep divisions within the party and lose Boris what goodwill he may just have
Zac Goldsmith? JHC.
Priti Patel? JHC.
Gavin Williamson? JHC.
IDS? JHC.
Mind you, International Trade would be an excellent opportunity for Ms Patel to run a parallel foreign policy that she could then lie about.
Ukraine vote in their parliamentary election tomorrow and it looks certain Servant of the People, the party of President Zelenskiy, will win close to if not an actual majority, You need 213 seats in the Rada for a majority and with the party polling in the high 40s, Dmytro Razumkov will only need a few extra seats to govern and may well govern alone.
In Germany, the latest Forsa poll has put the CDU/CSU on 27% with the Greens on 24%. Few changes in the latest Swedish and Austrian polls - in the former, the Social Democrats have an 8 point lead over the Swedish Democrats and the Moderates while in Austria the OVP continues to enjoy a huge lead over the SPD and the FPO.
Finally, a rare poll from Ireland while has Fianna Fail enjoying a 4 point lead over Fine Gael (30-26). SinnFein are third on 14% but the Greens have slumped to 7%. Labour has 5%. The next Irish GE is due next year.
(Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)
If the question is just about Brexit being delivered it is Tories 23%, Labour 21%, LD 13%, Brexit Party 8%.
If however the question is about Boris extending then it is Tories 13%, Labour 21%, LD 14%, Brexit Party 18%. If Hunt extends it is Tories 14%, Labour 21%,
LDs 13%, Brexit Party 19%.
However in each case an absurdly high 17 to 20% of voters are undecided reducing what can be read into them
https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Britain-Elects-Final-Tables-180719.pdf