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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Diss-May. The manifest inadequacy of the outgoing Prime Minister

I come to bury Theresa May. She leaves the highest political office in the land with no achievements to her name. The country is more divided than when she took office. Its economy is faltering. She has found no resolution to Brexit, the task for which she was appointed Prime Minister. She has completely failed.

Read the full story here

Nigelb

A fair assessment.

Nigelb

No doubt she will find her defenders; I am not one of them.

surbiton19

The expression "No deal" was actually coined by May when to prove her credentials she stupidly uttered the words "No deal is better than a bad deal". For almost 2 years, people started to think she had actually become a Leaver. Probably she had until the terrible consequences were made plain to her.

England can achieve a No-deal Brexit. But within a short time, there will be no Northern Ireland and no Scotland.

HYUFD

May had a difficult task and got as close as possible to get a Withdrawal Agreement Deal that respected the key demands of the winning Leave campaign, regaining sovereignty and control of borders and the right to do our own free trade deals by leaving the single market and customs union. Her problem was the backstop which effectively kept NI trapped in the customs union and large parts of the single market and meant she had to keep GB in the customs union too to avoid a hard border in the Irish Sea.

If Boris can get the Withdrawal Agreement minus backstop passed and agree a technical solution to the Irish border with the EU in the PD and future relationship then May will deserve some of the credit.

AndyJS

She reached 3 years in office 6 days ago according to Wikipedia.

Nigelb

On the elections have consequences front...

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2019-07-trump-election-linked-preterm-births.html
A significant jump in preterm births to Latina mothers living in the U.S. occurred in the nine months following the November 8, 2016 election of President Donald Trump, according to a study led by a researcher at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

The study, published July 19 in JAMA Network Open, was prompted by smaller studies that had suggested adverse, stress-related health effects among Latin Americans in the U.S. after the Trump election. The new analysis, based on U.S. government data on more than 33 million live births in the country, found an excess of 2,337 preterm births to U.S. Latinas compared to what would have been expected given trends in preterm birth in the years prior to the election. This is roughly 3.5 percent more preterm births than expected given projections from pre-election data.

Preterm birth, defined as birth before 37 weeks of gestation, is associated with a wide range of negative health consequences, from a greater risk of death in infancy to developmental problems later in life....

Gardenwalker

Now that May is leaving we can better assess her legacy.

Yep: worst post-war PM, with the possible exception of Anthony Eden.

surbiton19

HYUFD said:

May had a difficult task and got as close as possible to get a Withdrawal Agreement Deal that respected the key demands of the winning Leave campaign, regaining sovereignty and control of borders and the right to do our own free trade deals by leaving the single market and customs union. Her problem was the backstop which effectively kept NI trapped in the customs union and large parts of the single market and meant she had to keep GB in the customs union too to avoid a hard border in the Irish Sea.

If Boris can get the Withdrawal Agreement minus backstop passed and agree a technical solution to the Irish border with the EU in the PD and future relationship then May will deserve some of the credit.

The loonies will say that the Political Declaration is not worth the paper it is written on. We have gone through this before unless St.Boris can change their minds.

surbiton19

Nigelb said:

On the elections have consequences front...

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2019-07-trump-election-linked-preterm-births.html
A significant jump in preterm births to Latina mothers living in the U.S. occurred in the nine months following the November 8, 2016 election of President Donald Trump, according to a study led by a researcher at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

The study, published July 19 in JAMA Network Open, was prompted by smaller studies that had suggested adverse, stress-related health effects among Latin Americans in the U.S. after the Trump election. The new analysis, based on U.S. government data on more than 33 million live births in the country, found an excess of 2,337 preterm births to U.S. Latinas compared to what would have been expected given trends in preterm birth in the years prior to the election. This is roughly 3.5 percent more preterm births than expected given projections from pre-election data.

Preterm birth, defined as birth before 37 weeks of gestation, is associated with a wide range of negative health consequences, from a greater risk of death in infancy to developmental problems later in life....

I hope they register for the elections this time.

Ishmael_Z

Harsh, but fair.

Her greatest stupidity, though, was GE 2017.

Xtrain

surbiton19 said:

The expression "No deal" was actually coined by May when to prove her credentials she stupidly uttered the words "No deal is better than a bad deal". For almost 2 years, people started to think she had actually become a Leaver. Probably she had until the terrible consequences were made plain to her.

England can achieve a No-deal Brexit. But within a short time, there will be no Northern Ireland and no Scotland.

Scotland and Northern Ireland will still exist even in the event of "no deal".

DecrepitJohnL

Gardenwalker said:

Now that May is leaving we can better assess her legacy.

Yep: worst post-war PM, with the possible exception of Anthony Eden.

Both Eden & May were followed by Old Etonian, Oxford classicists.

OblitusSumMe

Alastair Meeks, above said:

This made it easy, as the outlines of the deal unfurled, for her hardline Leave opponents to label it as a sell-out. Since she had done her level best to exclude anyone who had voted Remain from having any sense of shared purpose in the process, she got no support there.

While this is true for those who did vote against the Withdrawal Agreement I think it's worth noting the number of Conservative Remainers, such as Ken Clarke, Letwin, and others, who did vote for the Withdrawal Agreement. They've been treated shockingly badly by many of those on the Leaver side who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement.

tpfkar

Brutal header but if anything it undersells her weaknesses. David Davis to lead negotiations? Throwing away Cameron’s majority against a weaker opponent? Awful response to Grenfell? Burning injustices ignored? Botched reshuffles? The P45 speech?

The first PM of my adult lifetime who I felt was my enemy; far beyond disagreements she thrives in not being on my side. I fear the second is coming very soon.

Theuniondivvie

Of course we are yet to experience a major part of her legacy.

PM Boris.

AlastairMeeks

tpfkar said:

Brutal header but if anything it undersells her weaknesses. David Davis to lead negotiations? Throwing away Cameron’s majority against a weaker opponent? Awful response to Grenfell? Burning injustices ignored? Botched reshuffles? The P45 speech?

The first PM of my adult lifetime who I felt was my enemy; far beyond disagreements she thrives in not being on my side. I fear the second is coming very soon.

I tried to focus on her strategic disasters rather than her tactical ones. As you rightly note, she was worse at tactics than at strategy.

rottenborough

Gardenwalker said:

Amber Rudd seemed to have her head screwed on right, but let’s be honest, her ministerial career so far has been nothing to write home about.

In fact she’s chiefly associated in my mind with the Windrush debacle and the ill-fated proposal to get bosses to snitch on European’s right of abode.

She appears to have blagged her way to the top various posho connections. If she disappeared from public life it would be no great loss.

She has ended up with not a scintilla of self respect left. Hope she can sleep at nights...

Gardenwalker

May had a three to six month “honeymoon” to being the country together around a very careful Brexit.

In a move I will never understand, she chose to take the Overton window and give it a bloody good push.

Nick Timothy might be the most destructive advisor since Rasputin, but the buck stopped with May.

dixiedean

Re Brecon and Radnor opinion poll. It really does underline how poor the Faragists are at Westminster FPTP elections. I believe they have won one. Ever.
After massively ramping up their chances in Peteborough, failing, then reacting with a string of utterly unfounded fraud allegations, it now looks like they'll manage third in a Leave area behind a convicted criminal, and an open Remainer.
They may split the Tory vote, but any idea of them winning large numbers of MPs looks to be waning.

rkrkrk

Ishmael_Z said:

Harsh, but fair.

Her greatest stupidity, though, was GE 2017.

Of her many mistakes, that's the one I find most defensible.

Cameron's majority wasn't enough to ignore the ERG, had she got her 100 majority she could have got Brexit through.

rottenborough

AndyJS said:

She reached 3 years in office 6 days ago according to Wikipedia.

Could be 3 years longer than Bozza.

dixiedean

Gardenwalker said:

May had a three to six month “honeymoon” to being the country together around a very careful Brexit.

In a move I will never understand, she chose to take the Overton window and give it a bloody good push.

Nick Timothy might be the most destructive advisor since Rasputin, but the buck stopped with May.

Similar beard too.

rottenborough

A decent woman, found out by history.

OnboardG1

Hmm, I'm not sure we should be forgetting Windrush, Grenfell Tower, ten years of police cuts, the "Go Home" vans and the hostile environment generally. Brexit might be one of the few things I think she tried in reasonably good faith and failed at because the job wasn't possible and she's not personally fit to do it. Her time in the Home Office in particular was one seemingly designed to inflict misery on people who never deserved it.

malcolmg

OnboardG1 said:

Hmm, I'm not sure we should be forgetting Windrush, Grenfell Tower, ten years of police cuts, the "Go Home" vans and the hostile environment generally. Brexit might be one of the few things I think she tried in reasonably good faith and failed at because the job wasn't possible and she's not personally fit to do it. Her time in the Home Office in particular was one seemingly designed to inflict misery on people who never deserved it.

Exactly , a cruel, heartless harridan

TGOHF

Sorry Alistair but you are far too generous to Mrs May.

She was the female Gordon Brown.

alex.

Goody.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/20/boris-johnson-iran-gulf-crisis-admiral-lord-west

Gardenwalker

TGOHF said:

Sorry Alistair but you are far too generous to Mrs May.

She was the female Gordon Brown.

In hindsight she was even worse than Brown.
She lacked his intellectual gravitas.

DecrepitJohnL

rkrkrk said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Harsh, but fair.

Her greatest stupidity, though, was GE 2017.

Of her many mistakes, that's the one I find most defensible.

Cameron's majority wasn't enough to ignore the ERG, had she got her 100 majority she could have got Brexit through.

Could she? A GE2017 landslide might just have doubled the size of the ERG.

AndyJS

One of her biggest mistakes was trying to have a discussion during the election campaign about sensitive subjects like how to pay for social care.

alex.

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Harsh, but fair.

Her greatest stupidity, though, was GE 2017.

Of her many mistakes, that's the one I find most defensible.

Cameron's majority wasn't enough to ignore the ERG, had she got her 100 majority she could have got Brexit through.

Could she? A GE2017 landslide might just have doubled the size of the ERG.

Possibly. But opposition MPs may have been more likely to back her deal in the knowledge that no deal was the almost certain alternative.

surbiton19

AndyJS said:

One of her biggest mistakes was trying to have a discussion during the election campaign about sensitive subjects like how to pay for social care.

The reason was she felt she was heading for a 100+ majority.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1152685749810225157?s=20

Philip_Thompson

Good article by Mr Meeks but I disagree with one fundamental issue.

Theresa May is a bad woman.

Not due to what's happened in this process. Quite frankly for years before she became PM her legacy was vile, utterly vile. Her speech to Conference in 2014 was the most disgusting thing I have ever sat through and once she was elected I couldn't stay with the party because of that. Her "go home" vans were a foretaste of what was to come with Donald Trump.

Theresa May is one of the most vile people I've had the displeasure to know in politics. I'll cry no tears when she's gone. Good riddance.

HYUFD

TGOHF said:

Sorry Alistair but you are far too generous to Mrs May.

She was the female Gordon Brown.

She leaves the economy intact as well as the Union when neither were guaranteed when she took over and she did get a Deal with the EU even if not a popular one.

Brown left a huge deficit and the worst recession since the 1930s

TGOHF

Gardenwalker said:

TGOHF said:

Sorry Alistair but you are far too generous to Mrs May.

She was the female Gordon Brown.

In hindsight she was even worse than Brown.
She lacked his intellectual gravitas.

She didn’t run up £150Bn of deficit in one year though.

alex.

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1152685749810225157?s=20

So Johnson still promising big jobs to 30 different people? Is he still planning to cut no of Government Departments?

HYUFD

dixiedean said:

Re Brecon and Radnor opinion poll. It really does underline how poor the Faragists are at Westminster FPTP elections. I believe they have won one. Ever.
After massively ramping up their chances in Peteborough, failing, then reacting with a string of utterly unfounded fraud allegations, it now looks like they'll manage third in a Leave area behind a convicted criminal, and an open Remainer.
They may split the Tory vote, but any idea of them winning large numbers of MPs looks to be waning.

If the Tories extend again the Brexit Party will win large numbers of MPs even if Farage spends the entire campaign in the pub and on the golf course

GIN1138

I generally like to look for positives in life... But Theresa May has been an unmitigated disaster.

Lets face it she was a mistake PM from the get-go. She just happened to be the last person standing after Gove and Boris destroyed themselves with their post referendum balls up.

The moment she leaves the stage on Wednesday afternoon her destiny is to become the "forgotten Prime Minsiter" - the one people initially talk about in slightly ashamed and hushed tones and the one eventually nobody can quite remember - that came after Cameron and before Boris - that everyone wipes from their memories but gets an occasional airing during pub quizes.

That is Theresa May's "legacy". Sadly.

Recidivist

If this poll proves roughly right and I was a new leader of the Tory Party I think I'd be tempted to risk a quickie election. The Brexit Party will have lost two by elections in a row which blunts their claim to be competitive as Westminster. And there is a chance of the Lib Dems hitting Labour hard.

Wait on the other hand and the Brexit Party can find ways of grabbing the headlines, there are bound to be political events that damage the governing party and Labour could start to regain ground amongst remainers.

https://www.markpack.org.uk/159332/brecon-radnorshire-byelection-opinion-poll/

DecrepitJohnL

Gardenwalker said:

TGOHF said:

Sorry Alistair but you are far too generous to Mrs May.

She was the female Gordon Brown.

In hindsight she was even worse than Brown.
She lacked his intellectual gravitas.

David Cameron was our worst prime minister since Lord North, and is the one who dug the Brexit hole. It is hard to see any resemblance between May and Brown. Eden has already been mentioned; Churchill was openly contemptuous of Stanley Baldwin.

HYUFD

DecrepitJohnL said:

Gardenwalker said:

Now that May is leaving we can better assess her legacy.

Yep: worst post-war PM, with the possible exception of Anthony Eden.

Both Eden & May were followed by Old Etonian, Oxford classicists.

Macmillan won a majority of 100 in 1959, just saying.....

dixiedean

AndyJS said:

One of her biggest mistakes was trying to have a discussion during the election campaign about sensitive subjects like how to pay for social care.

Surely that was failing to have a discussion of any kind about the manifesto at all. As Ken Clarke points out, she merely revealed it 2 weeks into the campaign, when still in front by a country mile.
As well as social care, a dumb animal could have seen fox hunting, for example, was going to be massively unpopular, and fire up opposition. As the bizarre ivory trading too.

rottenborough

TGOHF said:

Gardenwalker said:

TGOHF said:

Sorry Alistair but you are far too generous to Mrs May.

She was the female Gordon Brown.

In hindsight she was even worse than Brown.
She lacked his intellectual gravitas.

She didn’t run up £150Bn of deficit in one year though.

If he hadn't you would have not been able to get cash out at the ATM.

HYUFD

surbiton19 said:

HYUFD said:

May had a difficult task and got as close as possible to get a Withdrawal Agreement Deal that respected the key demands of the winning Leave campaign, regaining sovereignty and control of borders and the right to do our own free trade deals by leaving the single market and customs union. Her problem was the backstop which effectively kept NI trapped in the customs union and large parts of the single market and meant she had to keep GB in the customs union too to avoid a hard border in the Irish Sea.

If Boris can get the Withdrawal Agreement minus backstop passed and agree a technical solution to the Irish border with the EU in the PD and future relationship then May will deserve some of the credit.

The loonies will say that the Political Declaration is not worth the paper it is written on. We have gone through this before unless St.Boris can change their minds.

Almost all the loonies bar John Redwood and Sir Christopher Chope voted for the Brady Amendment ie the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop

DecrepitJohnL

TGOHF said:

Gardenwalker said:

TGOHF said:

Sorry Alistair but you are far too generous to Mrs May.

She was the female Gordon Brown.

In hindsight she was even worse than Brown.
She lacked his intellectual gravitas.

She didn’t run up £150Bn of deficit in one year though.

She was not leading the world in dealing with the global financial crisis.

Recidivist

HYUFD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Gardenwalker said:

Now that May is leaving we can better assess her legacy.

Yep: worst post-war PM, with the possible exception of Anthony Eden.

Both Eden & May were followed by Old Etonian, Oxford classicists.

Macmillan won a majority of 100 in 1959, just saying.....

From the centre

HYUFD

Gardenwalker said:

Now that May is leaving we can better assess her legacy.

Yep: worst post-war PM, with the possible exception of Anthony Eden.

Heath, Callaghan and Brown were all worse PMs than May, as well as Eden

surbiton19

dixiedean said:

AndyJS said:

One of her biggest mistakes was trying to have a discussion during the election campaign about sensitive subjects like how to pay for social care.

Surely that was failing to have a discussion of any kind about the manifesto at all. As Ken Clarke points out, she merely revealed it 2 weeks into the campaign, when still in front by a country mile.
As well as social care, a dumb animal could have seen fox hunting, for example, was going to be massively unpopular, and fire up opposition. As the bizarre ivory trading too.

In reality, she was never a politician. I believe had Leadsom not withdrawn she would have beaten May after the hustings. Maybe, a bigger disaster was averted.

DecrepitJohnL

HYUFD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Gardenwalker said:

Now that May is leaving we can better assess her legacy.

Yep: worst post-war PM, with the possible exception of Anthony Eden.

Both Eden & May were followed by Old Etonian, Oxford classicists.

Macmillan won a majority of 100 in 1959, just saying.....

Seven per cent economic growth. You've never had it so good.

HYUFD

Recidivist said:

HYUFD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Gardenwalker said:

Now that May is leaving we can better assess her legacy.

Yep: worst post-war PM, with the possible exception of Anthony Eden.

Both Eden & May were followed by Old Etonian, Oxford classicists.

Macmillan won a majority of 100 in 1959, just saying.....

From the centre

Against Corbyn Labour Boris is the centre in 52% Leave UK

rottenborough

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1152685749810225157?s=20

So Johnson still promising big jobs to 30 different people? Is he still planning to cut no of Government Departments?

No. Because that was yet another throw away comment in the blizzard of rubbish and lies that was the Johnson campaign.

More fool all those who fell for it.

OnboardG1

TGOHF said:

Gardenwalker said:

TGOHF said:

Sorry Alistair but you are far too generous to Mrs May.

She was the female Gordon Brown.

In hindsight she was even worse than Brown.
She lacked his intellectual gravitas.

She didn’t run up £150Bn of deficit in one year though.

It's almost like some sort of massive international crisis happened that required all governments to initiate some sort of fiscal intervention. Unless you're suggesting that we should have let the banks go splat in which case I might have some sympathy with that.

rottenborough

Can't wait for the negative briefings on Boris when all those promised jobs wake up on Thursday morning to find the phone aint ringing.

surbiton19

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1152685377607622662

Even a few weeks back, the Brexit Party "won" Brecon & Rad.

HYUFD

'The Big Short' on BBC2

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/ToryPressSW/status/1152695342472814592?s=20

HYUFD

surbiton19 said:

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1152685377607622662

Even a few weeks back, the Brexit Party "won" Brecon & Rad.

Tories + Brexit Party =48%, LDs =43%

rottenborough

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

Now that May is leaving we can better assess her legacy.

Yep: worst post-war PM, with the possible exception of Anthony Eden.

Heath, Callaghan and Brown were all worse PMs than May, as well as Eden

I know it is Saturday night but are you on illegal Class A drugs?

OnboardG1

rottenborough said:

Can't wait for the negative briefings on Boris when all those promised jobs wake up on Thursday morning to find the phone aint ringing.

Tuesday is going to be highly amusing. Not that I'm likely to see much of it, I have jury service at the High Court. I've been selected nine times in the twelve years I've been eligable. They don't seem to want to leave me alone.

rottenborough

OnboardG1 said:

rottenborough said:

Can't wait for the negative briefings on Boris when all those promised jobs wake up on Thursday morning to find the phone aint ringing.

Tuesday is going to be highly amusing. Not that I'm likely to see much of it, I have jury service at the High Court. I've been selected nine times in the twelve years I've been eligable. They don't seem to want to leave me alone.

Nine times? Blimey.

Richard_Tyndall

DecrepitJohnL said:

TGOHF said:

Gardenwalker said:

TGOHF said:

Sorry Alistair but you are far too generous to Mrs May.

She was the female Gordon Brown.

In hindsight she was even worse than Brown.
She lacked his intellectual gravitas.

She didn’t run up £150Bn of deficit in one year though.

She was not leading the world in dealing with the global financial crisis.

Neither was Brown. He ensured we were in the worst of positions to deal with the crisis when it came.

dixiedean

Meanwhile hard man of the people Yaxley-Lennon is floored by a 70 year old.
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/793111/tommy-robinson-punched-belmarsh-prison-edl-fight

HYUFD

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

Now that May is leaving we can better assess her legacy.

Yep: worst post-war PM, with the possible exception of Anthony Eden.

Heath, Callaghan and Brown were all worse PMs than May, as well as Eden

I know it is Saturday night but are you on illegal Class A drugs?

No, the British public agrees, they threw out Heath in 1974 and Callaghan in 1979 and 32% think Brown a terrible PM, 27% a poor PM and just 12% a good or great PM

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2013/12/06/prime-ministers-thatcher-best-brown-worst

rottenborough

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ToryPressSW/status/1152695342472814592?s=20

Christ. Look at the photo. The candidate is the only person in the room under 70.

We are living through the final days of the Conservative Party.

dixiedean

OnboardG1 said:

rottenborough said:

Can't wait for the negative briefings on Boris when all those promised jobs wake up on Thursday morning to find the phone aint ringing.

Tuesday is going to be highly amusing. Not that I'm likely to see much of it, I have jury service at the High Court. I've been selected nine times in the twelve years I've been eligable. They don't seem to want to leave me alone.

What? I've never been asked, neither has my partner. Feel slighted now. What's wrong with us?

stodge

HYUFD said:

Tories + Brexit Party =48%, LDs =43%

I get it - as soon as Boris becomes PM, every Brexit Party voter will suddenly become a Conservative. The ComRes poll didn't suggest the huge Boris Bounce it was showing last month - indeed, he couldn't win a majority even if he delivers Brexit.

By the way, Con to Lib Dem swing on those poll numbers 17% and the Conservative share almost as bad as the 1985 by-election when the party came third.

Still time to get the Conservative vote even lower of course.

HYUFD

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ToryPressSW/status/1152695342472814592?s=20

Christ. Look at the photo. The candidate is the only person in the room under 70.

We are living through the final days of the Conservative Party.

No, there are plenty of 50 and 60 year olds there and 1 or 2 at the back look about 30 to 40.

This is also Totnes, ie retirement central

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1152682669689507840?s=20

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1152683072149757952?s=20

rottenborough

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

Now that May is leaving we can better assess her legacy.

Yep: worst post-war PM, with the possible exception of Anthony Eden.

Heath, Callaghan and Brown were all worse PMs than May, as well as Eden

I know it is Saturday night but are you on illegal Class A drugs?

No, the British public agrees, they threw out Heath in 1974 and Callaghan in 1979 and 32% think Brown a terrible PM, 27% a poor PM and just 12% a good or great PM

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2013/12/06/prime-ministers-thatcher-best-brown-worst

The public threw May out. She scraped through on a technicality.

rottenborough

dixiedean said:

Meanwhile hard man of the people Yaxley-Lennon is floored by a 70 year old.
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/793111/tommy-robinson-punched-belmarsh-prison-edl-fight

Top news.

HYUFD

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

Now that May is leaving we can better assess her legacy.

Yep: worst post-war PM, with the possible exception of Anthony Eden.

Heath, Callaghan and Brown were all worse PMs than May, as well as Eden

I know it is Saturday night but are you on illegal Class A drugs?

No, the British public agrees, they threw out Heath in 1974 and Callaghan in 1979 and 32% think Brown a terrible PM, 27% a poor PM and just 12% a good or great PM

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2013/12/06/prime-ministers-thatcher-best-brown-worst

The public threw May out. She scraped through on a technicality.

May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since Thatcher, even today an election under May would likely see another hung parliament, not a Labour majority

alex.

OnboardG1 said:

rottenborough said:

Can't wait for the negative briefings on Boris when all those promised jobs wake up on Thursday morning to find the phone aint ringing.

Tuesday is going to be highly amusing. Not that I'm likely to see much of it, I have jury service at the High Court. I've been selected nine times in the twelve years I've been eligable. They don't seem to want to leave me alone.

You must enjoy it though, because AFAIK you can basically refuse after you’ve done it once, certainly twice.

High Court might be interesting though.

HYUFD

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Tories + Brexit Party =48%, LDs =43%

I get it - as soon as Boris becomes PM, every Brexit Party voter will suddenly become a Conservative. The ComRes poll didn't suggest the huge Boris Bounce it was showing last month - indeed, he couldn't win a majority even if he delivers Brexit.

By the way, Con to Lib Dem swing on those poll numbers 17% and the Conservative share almost as bad as the 1985 by-election when the party came third.

Still time to get the Conservative vote even lower of course.

The Comres poll had about 20% undecided but still had the Tories ahead if Boris delivers Brexit and plenty of time for those undecideds to back Boris for a majority.


LD voteshare in Brecon up 14%, Labour vote down 10%, the main LD gains from Labour not the Tories

rottenborough

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1152682669689507840?s=20

Boris is running the Nixon strategy. 'Is he mad?' 'Will he drop the bomb?'

I accept it may just work, but I doubt it.

OnboardG1

dixiedean said:

OnboardG1 said:

rottenborough said:

Can't wait for the negative briefings on Boris when all those promised jobs wake up on Thursday morning to find the phone aint ringing.

Tuesday is going to be highly amusing. Not that I'm likely to see much of it, I have jury service at the High Court. I've been selected nine times in the twelve years I've been eligable. They don't seem to want to leave me alone.

What? I've never been asked, neither has my partner. Feel slighted now. What's wrong with us?

Getting cited three times in three months while still exempt was the high point. I'll have to miss work but ho-hum. I'm currently in a bad mood with my existing employer so I actually don't mind going along to do my civic duty. Not that I do anyway but the ol CEO is desperate for me to get out of it and I'm not inclined to do so.

rottenborough

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ToryPressSW/status/1152695342472814592?s=20

Christ. Look at the photo. The candidate is the only person in the room under 70.

We are living through the final days of the Conservative Party.

No, there are plenty of 50 and 60 year olds there and 1 or 2 at the back look about 30 to 40.

This is also Totnes, ie retirement central

Look!! There are some 60 year olds. The Party has another 15 years at least.

alex.

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1152682669689507840?s=20

Boris is running the Nixon strategy. 'Is he mad?' 'Will he drop the bomb?'

I accept it may just work, but I doubt it.

According to senior Johnson allies...

Sounds like a crass attempt to blame the EU for no deal.

alex.

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1152683072149757952?s=20

So exactly what they have been saying for the last six months, if not longer, then. Backstop is a backstop, not an end point. But we still need it.

Marx

TGOHF said:

Gardenwalker said:

TGOHF said:

Sorry Alistair but you are far too generous to Mrs May.

She was the female Gordon Brown.

In hindsight she was even worse than Brown.
She lacked his intellectual gravitas.

She didn’t run up £150Bn of deficit in one year though.

But no Labour government has ever run up well over £1 trillion in the 30 or 40 years it was in power, let alone 9 years. In 2010 the deficit was around £800 to £900 billion against an average of around £450 billion or so for the previous 10, a far better record than the Tories ever had. And that was covering the backsides of the lying incompetent arrogant bankers and financiers before they managed to destroy the UK and USA economies. Can someone tell me where that over £1 trillion went? 'Cos it sure as hell didn't go on anything to do with maintaining the economy or structure of the UK.

DecrepitJohnL

Richard_Tyndall said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TGOHF said:

Gardenwalker said:

TGOHF said:

Sorry Alistair but you are far too generous to Mrs May.

She was the female Gordon Brown.

In hindsight she was even worse than Brown.
She lacked his intellectual gravitas.

She didn’t run up £150Bn of deficit in one year though.

She was not leading the world in dealing with the global financial crisis.

Neither was Brown. He ensured we were in the worst of positions to deal with the crisis when it came.

Gordon Brown saved the world, or at least led the international response. He really did.

HYUFD

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ToryPressSW/status/1152695342472814592?s=20

Christ. Look at the photo. The candidate is the only person in the room under 70.

We are living through the final days of the Conservative Party.

No, there are plenty of 50 and 60 year olds there and 1 or 2 at the back look about 30 to 40.

This is also Totnes, ie retirement central

Look!! There are some 60 year olds. The Party has another 15 years at least.

As I said earlier the Tories have not won under 30s since 1983, however they have still won 5 elections since as voters get more conservative as they get older, indeed Labour have not won over 65s since 1997.

People will still get older decades from now and we will still have pensioners and they will still vote Tory (assuming the Tories deliver Brexit of course)

rottenborough

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1152683072149757952?s=20

So exactly what they have been saying for the last six months, if not longer, then. Backstop is a backstop, not an end point. But we still need it.

The ERG, being composed of thick people, could never see that.

rottenborough

Richard_Tyndall said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TGOHF said:

Gardenwalker said:

TGOHF said:

Sorry Alistair but you are far too generous to Mrs May.

She was the female Gordon Brown.

In hindsight she was even worse than Brown.
She lacked his intellectual gravitas.

She didn’t run up £150Bn of deficit in one year though.

She was not leading the world in dealing with the global financial crisis.

Neither was Brown. He ensured we were in the worst of positions to deal with the crisis when it came.

No he didn't. Evidence?

dixiedean

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Tories + Brexit Party =48%, LDs =43%

I get it - as soon as Boris becomes PM, every Brexit Party voter will suddenly become a Conservative. The ComRes poll didn't suggest the huge Boris Bounce it was showing last month - indeed, he couldn't win a majority even if he delivers Brexit.

By the way, Con to Lib Dem swing on those poll numbers 17% and the Conservative share almost as bad as the 1985 by-election when the party came third.

Still time to get the Conservative vote even lower of course.

The Comres poll had about 20% undecided but still had the Tories ahead if Boris delivers Brexit and plenty of time for those undecideds to back Boris for a majority.


LD voteshare in Brecon up 14%, Labour vote down 10%, the main LD gains from Labour not the Tories

What proportion of those Labour voters realise they are a long way fourth, and have a government with a majority of 3, so are voting tactically? And how many of them have gone to Brexit Party? We simply don't know.
You can't simply assume vote switch like that.

OnboardG1

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ToryPressSW/status/1152695342472814592?s=20

Christ. Look at the photo. The candidate is the only person in the room under 70.

We are living through the final days of the Conservative Party.

No, there are plenty of 50 and 60 year olds there and 1 or 2 at the back look about 30 to 40.

This is also Totnes, ie retirement central

Look!! There are some 60 year olds. The Party has another 15 years at least.

As I said earlier the Tories have not won under 30s since 1983, however they have still won 5 elections since as voters get more conservative as they get older, indeed Labour have not won over 65s since 1997.

People will still get older decades from now and we will still have pensioners and they will still vote Tory (assuming the Tories deliver Brexit of course)

You're awfully sure that lifecycle effect is going to come into play here. Given the number of my generation in insecure work and who don't own property I'd be seriously wary of assuming what happened before happens now (especially since the average age of a Tory voter has been creeping up).

FrancisUrquhart

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1152685749810225157?s=20

Boris is offering jobs like dodgy tickets touts with fake tickets for the same handful seats.

rottenborough

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ToryPressSW/status/1152695342472814592?s=20

Christ. Look at the photo. The candidate is the only person in the room under 70.

We are living through the final days of the Conservative Party.

No, there are plenty of 50 and 60 year olds there and 1 or 2 at the back look about 30 to 40.

This is also Totnes, ie retirement central

Look!! There are some 60 year olds. The Party has another 15 years at least.

As I said earlier the Tories have not won under 30s since 1983, however they have still won 5 elections since as voters get more conservative as they get older, indeed Labour have not won over 65s since 1997.

People will still get older decades from now and we will still have pensioners and they will still vote Tory (assuming the Tories deliver Brexit of course)

I don't think they will. There is a massive sea-change coming amongst the millennials and X-Gen. Their values are a millions miles away from Boris/May Toryism.

rottenborough

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1152685749810225157?s=20

Boris is offering jobs like dodgy tickets touts with fake tickets for the same handful seats.

It looks like various wannabe cabinet ministers are briefing the STimes that they have been promised X,Y,Z. Trying to bounce Boris and his kitchen cabinet.

Pathetic.

dixiedean

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ToryPressSW/status/1152695342472814592?s=20

Christ. Look at the photo. The candidate is the only person in the room under 70.

We are living through the final days of the Conservative Party.

No, there are plenty of 50 and 60 year olds there and 1 or 2 at the back look about 30 to 40.

This is also Totnes, ie retirement central

Look!! There are some 60 year olds. The Party has another 15 years at least.

As I said earlier the Tories have not won under 30s since 1983, however they have still won 5 elections since as voters get more conservative as they get older, indeed Labour have not won over 65s since 1997.

People will still get older decades from now and we will still have pensioners and they will still vote Tory (assuming the Tories deliver Brexit of course)

I don't think they will. There is a massive sea-change coming amongst the millennials and X-Gen. Their values are a millions miles away from Boris/May Toryism.

The techno rave generation seems to be holding out thus far. I wonder if it will continue? It really would be the subject of my PhD if I hadn't forsaken intellectualism.

GIN1138

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1152685749810225157?s=20

Boris is offering jobs like dodgy tickets touts with fake tickets for the same handful seats.

I suspect a lot of this is the Ministers (or "friends" of the Ministers) themselves putting these stories out there.

Knowing Boris he probably hasn't given any though to his Cabinet yet!

HYUFD

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ToryPressSW/status/1152695342472814592?s=20

Christ. Look at the photo. The candidate is the only person in the room under 70.

We are living through the final days of the Conservative Party.

No, there are plenty of 50 and 60 year olds there and 1 or 2 at the back look about 30 to 40.

This is also Totnes, ie retirement central

Look!! There are some 60 year olds. The Party has another 15 years at least.

As I said earlier the Tories have not won under 30s since 1983, however they have still won 5 elections since as voters get more conservative as they get older, indeed Labour have not won over 65s since 1997.

People will still get older decades from now and we will still have pensioners and they will still vote Tory (assuming the Tories deliver Brexit of course)

I don't think they will. There is a massive sea-change coming amongst the millennials and X-Gen. Their values are a millions miles away from Boris/May Toryism.

That is absolute crap.

25% of 18 to 24s voted Leave and 40% of 25 to 34s, the same as voted for Cameron's Tories or the LDs in 2010 and more than voted for Cameron's Tories or the LDs in 2015.


The Tories also won a higher share of 18 to 24s and 25 to 34s in 2017 than they got in 2001, 9 years after the latter election they were back in government

rottenborough

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jul/20/apollo-11-moon-landing-trump-buzz-aldrin

rottenborough

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ToryPressSW/status/1152695342472814592?s=20

Christ. Look at the photo. The candidate is the only person in the room under 70.

We are living through the final days of the Conservative Party.

No, there are plenty of 50 and 60 year olds there and 1 or 2 at the back look about 30 to 40.

This is also Totnes, ie retirement central

Look!! There are some 60 year olds. The Party has another 15 years at least.

As I said earlier the Tories have not won under 30s since 1983, however they have still won 5 elections since as voters get more conservative as they get older, indeed Labour have not won over 65s since 1997.

People will still get older decades from now and we will still have pensioners and they will still vote Tory (assuming the Tories deliver Brexit of course)

I don't think they will. There is a massive sea-change coming amongst the millennials and X-Gen. Their values are a millions miles away from Boris/May Toryism.

That is absolute crap.

25% of 18 to 24s voted Leave and 40% of 25 to 34s, the same as voted for Cameron's Tories and the LDs in 2010 and more than voted for Cameron's Tories and the LDs in 2015

Most 18 - 24 did not bother to vote.

rottenborough

Where were you when man first landed on the Moon?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-49003296

As a 5 year old I was awoken by my dad and taken downstairs to watch. I clearly remember.

dixiedean

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1152685749810225157?s=20

Boris is offering jobs like dodgy tickets touts with fake tickets for the same handful seats.

It looks like various wannabe cabinet ministers are briefing the STimes that they have been promised X,Y,Z. Trying to bounce Boris and his kitchen cabinet.

Pathetic.

Which in itself is telling. They wouldn't dare do such a thing if they didn't know full well that he is in the weakest position of an incoming PM for many a year.
Usually, attempting to manipulate the new big cheese is a one way express ticket to the back benches.

rottenborough

dixiedean said:

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1152685749810225157?s=20

Boris is offering jobs like dodgy tickets touts with fake tickets for the same handful seats.

It looks like various wannabe cabinet ministers are briefing the STimes that they have been promised X,Y,Z. Trying to bounce Boris and his kitchen cabinet.

Pathetic.

Which in itself is telling. They wouldn't dare do such a thing if they didn't know full well that he is in the weakest position of an incoming PM for many a year.
Usually, attempting to manipulate the new big cheese is a one way express ticket to the back benches.

Good point,

rottenborough

Labour MPs are furious as local party votes to expel former chief whip

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/20/labour-mps-furious-as-local-party-votes-to-expel-hilary-armstrong

Please can we end the Lab party now and stop twatting around for the next couple of years?

HYUFD

OnboardG1 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ToryPressSW/status/1152695342472814592?s=20

Christ. Look at the photo. The candidate is the only person in the room under 70.

We are living through the final days of the Conservative Party.

No, there are plenty of 50 and 60 year olds there and 1 or 2 at the back look about 30 to 40.

This is also Totnes, ie retirement central

Look!! There are some 60 year olds. The Party has another 15 years at least.

As I said earlier the Tories have not won under 30s since 1983, however they have still won 5 elections since as voters get more conservative as they get older, indeed Labour have not won over 65s since 1997.

People will still get older decades from now and we will still have pensioners and they will still vote Tory (assuming the Tories deliver Brexit of course)

You're awfully sure that lifecycle effect is going to come into play here. Given the number of my generation in insecure work and who don't own property I'd be seriously wary of assuming what happened before happens now (especially since the average age of a Tory voter has been creeping up).

We have the lowest youth unemployment since records began and even today by 40 a majority of voters own a property either with a mortgage or outright

numbertwelve

I feel sorry for Theresa May. I genuinely think she was trying her best at a near impossible task, which was made even harder by the fact that she palpably wasn’t equipped for the top job. Sadly she will go down as one of the poorer prime ministers in history. She is undoubtedly a hard working, duty-driven public servant (her tin ear on occasions down to, I think, poor advisors and a willingness to be guided) and I take little delight in seeing her fail so spectacularly.