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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit betting moves closer and closer to no deal – now a

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  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,564
    Scott_P said:
    Johnsonism.
    McTernan appears to be a fan.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,669

    ydoethur said:

    This is one of the many reasons why Biden should not be the nominee.
    Oh dear. I am even more worried now.
    I'm not quite sure why my ineffable wisdom has that effect on you. My opposite predictions are confined to the sport of sandpaper cheats, er, cricket.

    More seriously, he just isn't a good candidate. Looked at with a cold eye he's an elderly, gaffe prone, not very bright career politician with a dodgy sexual record who has several times tilted for the top office and every time failed dismally. Once, unbelievably, because he copied a speech practically verbatim from Neil Kinnock. He offers no new policies, no fresh ideas and none of the vision or energy on the key challenges America faces - healthcare, climate change, etc - that are not rather better covered by other candidates.

    How on earth can the Democrats think that he has a chance against Trump? He just hasn't. If they want to lose, at least pick somebody interesting and original and lay down a marker for the future.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,820

    - “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” (net wrong to leave)

    Scotland +42
    London +24
    Rest of South England +7
    Midlands and Wales -5
    North of England-6

    GB +8

    BJ is trying to grab the North while chucking away the South + Scotland. They’ll probably tell him to get stuffed: the North cos they hate his party, the South cos they hate him, and Scots cos we hate both.

    (YouGov / The Times Survey Results
    Sample Size: 1628 GB Adults Fieldwork: 5th - 6th August 2019)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

    Wrong.

    Boris leads Corbyn by a huge 45% to 15% margin as preferred PM in the South in the same poll, he leads Corbyn too 38% to 21% in the North, 41% to 16% in the Midlands and Wales.

    Boris even leads Corbyn 31% to 28% in Scotland and 30% to 24% in London
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,669

    leslie48 said:

    I do not believe the fuel crisis in 2000 will be as big as this. Best example will be the 3 day week emergency in the early 1970s when Ted Heath went to the country. Wilson narrowly won. Boris is lucky as he no one opposite him like Tony Blair, Harold Wilson etc. Corbyn on the lowest polling in UK history of Labour Party might be his savior.

    As those of us who after a lifetime have left the Labour Party since 2015 in our thousands JC is the gift that keeps giving to Tory Man. McCluskey should be charged for getting the Labour Party in a state when even the third parties dismiss the idea of Corbyn the unpopular as being an alternative leader. A third force of Lib Dems and SNP etc is now inevitable in Remain Seats etc.,

    A dire Labour performance may not save BJ. If people flock to the Lib Dems, the SNP and Plaid Cymru then the duopoly could break. And when it breaks, it’ll be broken for good.
    And in that context it's worth noting that there have been three by-elections in constituencies that voted leave since 2017 and none have been won by candidates who voted leave or support no deal. There is increasing evidence of tactical voting and the most recent by-election saw a formal alliance between remain-supporting parties.
    Which had no obvious effect on the result. I will yet again remind people that the factors at play in Brecon are very complex.
  • TOPPING said:

    Until we JFDI Brexit nobody is going to know where they stand, this needs to end 31/10/19 no ifs, no buts.

    Blah blah blah.

    The country voted to leave and here we are on the cusp of a recession. So as result of the view we are now in this position.

    You are an economist. Did you expect the recession to emerge on July 1st 2016?
    No, I didn't expect a recession. Though if there was one due to uncertainty I thought it would happen in 2017.

    But either way the post-March is not Brexit, it is Brexit not occuring.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,420
    HYUFD said:

    - “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” (net wrong to leave)

    Scotland +42
    London +24
    Rest of South England +7
    Midlands and Wales -5
    North of England-6

    GB +8

    BJ is trying to grab the North while chucking away the South + Scotland. They’ll probably tell him to get stuffed: the North cos they hate his party, the South cos they hate him, and Scots cos we hate both.

    (YouGov / The Times Survey Results
    Sample Size: 1628 GB Adults Fieldwork: 5th - 6th August 2019)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

    Wrong.

    Boris leads Corbyn by a huge 45% to 15% margin as preferred PM in the South in the same poll, he leads Corbyn too 38% to 21% in the North, 41% to 16% in the Midlands and Wales.

    Boris even leads Corbyn 31% to 28% in Scotland and 30% to 24% in London
    It's Labour "chucking away" everywhere - with the twin joys of Corbyn and Brexit ambiguity.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,564

    geoffw said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's a natural shock-absorber. Let the currency take the strain.
    Tell that to soon-to-be-pensioners who have seen the value of their funds slashed..
    I am an actual pensioner with income in sterling and spending commitments in euros. That does not prevent me understanding that we need a lower exchange rate.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    But either way the post-March is not Brexit, it is Brexit not occuring.

    How are things at MinTruth today, Phil?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,775

    Fewer cars = fewer emissions = fewer climate change.

    Fewer people = fewer meat eating = fewer climate change

    No need for us to be vegan.

    (It pains me to copy such appalling grammar!)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 31,054
    Scott_P said:
    Say Johnson wins a snap election with enough of a majority to get a deal through. He then dumps the DUP and agrees a NI-only backstop so no border in Ireland. UK wide backstop dumped.

    Possible?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,119
    @DavidL:-

    "Thirdly, I think it is very likely that London will continue to get access to the EU on favourable terms. The EU simply doesn't have a financial centre of adequate liquidity and skills without it."

    That is a very optimistic view.

    The EU is not going to let London continue to be the main financial centre for the EU. It will take back euro clearing. It has already made clear that any decision on equivalence will depend on political considerations i.e. even if London's rules are equivalent the EU may still not recognise them.

    This is not going to happen overnight but it will happen over time. It may mean that other centres become more dominant: New York, Singapore, for instance. It may mean that there is a more fractured financial services sector in Europe as a whole - in itself a risk - but it is simply far too complacent to assume that London is so indispensable that we need not worry about what will happen to it - and all the other sectors which depend on it.

    The risk is greater because of the apparent inevitability of a No Deal exit. Had there been an agreement and a transition period and then some sort of long-term agreement there would have been time to adjust and a fair amount of goodwill.

    There is none of that now. And the EU will not want, understandably, to have to depend on a financial sector in a third country with such a capricious and hostile political class.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,286
    edited August 2019
    geoffw said:

    Scott_P said:
    Johnsonism.
    McTernan appears to be a fan.
    McTernan is consistent in the quality of his punditry, I'll give him that.

    'New Labour Pundit Of The Year '

    https://tinyurl.com/yys2fgrx

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,557
    HYUFD said:

    - “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” (net wrong to leave)

    Scotland +42
    London +24
    Rest of South England +7
    Midlands and Wales -5
    North of England-6

    GB +8

    BJ is trying to grab the North while chucking away the South + Scotland. They’ll probably tell him to get stuffed: the North cos they hate his party, the South cos they hate him, and Scots cos we hate both.

    (YouGov / The Times Survey Results
    Sample Size: 1628 GB Adults Fieldwork: 5th - 6th August 2019)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

    Wrong.

    Boris leads Corbyn by a huge 45% to 15% margin as preferred PM in the South in the same poll, he leads Corbyn too 38% to 21% in the North, 41% to 16% in the Midlands and Wales.

    Boris even leads Corbyn 31% to 28% in Scotland and 30% to 24% in London
    But doesn't much of the SE prefer Ms Swinson to either...
  • kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

    With all due respect Mr. Meeks, I disagree.
    However the upcoming sequence of events actually plays out, I think the EU leadership will stand firm to its red lines, but will still insist on offering the option of an extension with little or no preconditions.
    The EU leadership will want to make absolutely clear that the UK is doing its Brexit completely voluntarily.
    As many of us said when May was forced to agree an extension to October, the legislature needs to take responsibility for the economic cost their dicking about is causing. Brexit can't just be strung out and strung out and strung out. If you want to know what Brexit uncertainty is doing to our economics, look at the latest economic data. Stock-pile, run down stock, stock-pile, run down stock....that is not a sustainable economic model.

    If the EU wants to slash off its own nose to spite its face, then the UK needs to get on and leave on 31st October.

    Who exactly forced Mrs May to request an extension?
    And by which means?
    Did Mr Hammond point a gun at her head? Or Mr Juncker perhaps?
    May foolishly chose to let MPs decide whether to extend and rather that choose one of the 3 available end states they chose to drag on this madness.

    Thankfully Boris isn't making the same mistake.
    Thanks goodness he's finding original ways to cock things up ?
    Yes. If we are going to cock things up at least do it in an original manner. Its how evolution works to make things better.
    Phillip, The other day when I suggested the EU could stop the clock until we sorted out say a GE you said that was not possible. Professor Bogdanor whom I am guessing you would agree knows more about this than you or me begs to differ. He has just said precisely that.
    I said that it was unlawful under the EU Constitution.

    Professor Bogdanor has said [to my knowledge, only read snippets quoted here] that it would be lawful under UK law to do a retroactive change. That I agree with. EU law and UK law are not identical and UK law is more open to fudge.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 31,054
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is one of the many reasons why Biden should not be the nominee.
    Oh dear. I am even more worried now.
    I'm not quite sure why my ineffable wisdom has that effect on you. My opposite predictions are confined to the sport of sandpaper cheats, er, cricket.

    More seriously, he just isn't a good candidate. Looked at with a cold eye he's an elderly, gaffe prone, not very bright career politician with a dodgy sexual record who has several times tilted for the top office and every time failed dismally. Once, unbelievably, because he copied a speech practically verbatim from Neil Kinnock. He offers no new policies, no fresh ideas and none of the vision or energy on the key challenges America faces - healthcare, climate change, etc - that are not rather better covered by other candidates.

    How on earth can the Democrats think that he has a chance against Trump? He just hasn't. If they want to lose, at least pick somebody interesting and original and lay down a marker for the future.
    Because the polls tell them he has the best chance and because he recaptures some of the good vibe from Obama's time.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201



    Just goes to show what imbecilic nonsense a delay was. Companies prepared for no deal, they had a plan and what did Parliament do? Make it all pointless and have to be repeated six months later.

    Idiots! And now the idiots want another delay? What planet are they on?
    As the dry wit of the E&Y Head of Brexit termed it on TV - Well one benefit is that businesses have stress tested their no deal brexit plans and learnt the lessons.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,786
    ydoethur said:

    This is one of the many reasons why Biden should not be the nominee.




    His brain is melting at an astonishing rate
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,584
    Scott_P said:
    Boris is starting to look like One Punch Man in that episode where he disguises himself as Charanko to enter the martial arts contest.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,564

    Scott_P said:
    Say Johnson wins a snap election with enough of a majority to get a deal through. He then dumps the DUP and agrees a NI-only backstop so no border in Ireland. UK wide backstop dumped.

    Possible?
    Yes. It's Selmayr's border in the Irish sea, which “no UK Prime Minister could ever agree”. (May's assertion might not last the test of time)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    geoffw said:

    Yes. It's Selmayr's border in the Irish sea, which “no UK Prime Minister could ever agree”. (May's assertion might not last the test of time)

    But BoZo won't be UK Prime Minster after that.

    Sindy, and Irish reunification. Job done!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,669

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is one of the many reasons why Biden should not be the nominee.
    Oh dear. I am even more worried now.
    I'm not quite sure why my ineffable wisdom has that effect on you. My opposite predictions are confined to the sport of sandpaper cheats, er, cricket.

    More seriously, he just isn't a good candidate. Looked at with a cold eye he's an elderly, gaffe prone, not very bright career politician with a dodgy sexual record who has several times tilted for the top office and every time failed dismally. Once, unbelievably, because he copied a speech practically verbatim from Neil Kinnock. He offers no new policies, no fresh ideas and none of the vision or energy on the key challenges America faces - healthcare, climate change, etc - that are not rather better covered by other candidates.

    How on earth can the Democrats think that he has a chance against Trump? He just hasn't. If they want to lose, at least pick somebody interesting and original and lay down a marker for the future.
    Because the polls tell them he has the best chance and because he recaptures some of the good vibe from Obama's time.
    Then the Dems are screwed, and so unfortunately are the rest of us.
  • The pound is going through the floor against the Euro.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,820

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is one of the many reasons why Biden should not be the nominee.
    Oh dear. I am even more worried now.
    I'm not quite sure why my ineffable wisdom has that effect on you. My opposite predictions are confined to the sport of sandpaper cheats, er, cricket.

    More seriously, he just isn't a good candidate. Looked at with a cold eye he's an elderly, gaffe prone, not very bright career politician with a dodgy sexual record who has several times tilted for the top office and every time failed dismally. Once, unbelievably, because he copied a speech practically verbatim from Neil Kinnock. He offers no new policies, no fresh ideas and none of the vision or energy on the key challenges America faces - healthcare, climate change, etc - that are not rather better covered by other candidates.

    How on earth can the Democrats think that he has a chance against Trump? He just hasn't. If they want to lose, at least pick somebody interesting and original and lay down a marker for the future.
    Because the polls tell them he has the best chance and because he recaptures some of the good vibe from Obama's time.
    The Democrats will likely pick Warren and lose now (maybe with O'Rourke as VP).

    They may have to wait for Bobby Kennedy's grandson Congressman Joseph P Kennedy III in 2024 as at the moment the odds are Trump will be re elected
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,630
    Wow.
    Standing in front of of an "Asian and Latino Coalition" banner.

    Color me unsurprised...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,820
    edited August 2019
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” (net wrong to leave)

    Scotland +42
    London +24
    Rest of South England +7
    Midlands and Wales -5
    North of England-6

    GB +8

    BJ is trying to grab the North while chucking away the South + Scotland. They’ll probably tell him to get stuffed: the North cos they hate his party, the South cos they hate him, and Scots cos we hate both.

    (YouGov / The Times Survey Results
    Sample Size: 1628 GB Adults Fieldwork: 5th - 6th August 2019)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

    Wrong.

    Boris leads Corbyn by a huge 45% to 15% margin as preferred PM in the South in the same poll, he leads Corbyn too 38% to 21% in the North, 41% to 16% in the Midlands and Wales.

    Boris even leads Corbyn 31% to 28% in Scotland and 30% to 24% in London
    But doesn't much of the SE prefer Ms Swinson to either...
    In a few places like Guildford and Lewes and St Albans maybe buy not enough to reverse the huge Tory majority in the SE especially with fear of Corbyn trumping fear of No Deal (and the SE narrowly voted Leave anyway)
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,564
    edited August 2019
    Scott_P said:

    geoffw said:

    Yes. It's Selmayr's border in the Irish sea, which “no UK Prime Minister could ever agree”. (May's assertion might not last the test of time)

    But BoZo won't be UK Prime Minster after that.

    Sindy, and Irish reunification. Job done!
    Rottenborough asked if it were possible. Obviously not desirable.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,004
    On topic, I don't believe Boris is bluffing. He's lashed himself to the ERG-31/10 mast and cannot now politically decouple.

    The question is much more whether parliament can stop a No Deal outcome. Frankly, I think the odds are about right on that score now - the numbers are there to stop it in principle but whether they'd be willing to take the steps necessary in fact is a much more doubtful call.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 1,372

    kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

    With all due respect Mr. Meeks, I disagree.

    voluntarily.
    As many of us said when May was forced to agree an extension to October, the legislature needs to take responsibility for the economic cost their dicking about is causing. Brexit can't just be strung out and strung out and strung out. If you want to know what Brexit uncertainty is doing to our economics, look at the latest economic data. Stock-pile, run down stock, stock-pile, run down stock....that is not a sustainable economic model.

    If the EU wants to slash off its own nose to spite its face, then the UK needs to get on and leave on 31st October.

    Who exactly forced Mrs May to request an extension?
    And by which means?
    Did Mr Hammond point a gun at her head? Or Mr Juncker perhaps?
    May foolishly chose to let MPs decide whether to extend and rather that choose one of the 3 available end states they chose to drag on this madness.

    Thankfully Boris isn't making the same mistake.
    Thanks goodness he's finding original ways to cock things up ?
    Yes. If we are going to cock things up at least do it in an original manner. Its how evolution works to make things better.
    Phillip, The other day when I suggested the EU could stop the clock until we sorted out say a GE you said that was not possible. Professor Bogdanor whom I am guessing you would agree knows more about this than you or me begs to differ. He has just said precisely that.
    I said that it was unlawful under the EU Constitution.

    Professor Bogdanor has said [to my knowledge, only read snippets quoted here] that it would be lawful under UK law to do a retroactive change. That I agree with. EU law and UK law are not identical and UK law is more open to fudge.
    He also seemed quite happy that the EU could do it. That was the point of what he was saying, that it could be done. It was a suggested solution. In fact the more challenging aspect seemed to be the retrospective change by the UK for which he gave an example (war crimes). He did not say or imply there would be any issues on the EU side. If there were you would have thought he would have mentioned them as otherwise the whole point of him bringing it up would have been, well pointless. He thought the EU would be quite keen in fact.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,820
    Scott_P said:

    geoffw said:

    Yes. It's Selmayr's border in the Irish sea, which “no UK Prime Minister could ever agree”. (May's assertion might not last the test of time)

    But BoZo won't be UK Prime Minster after that.

    Sindy, and Irish reunification. Job done!
    SNP on just 39% in latest Yougov and Boris will not impose a hard border in Ireland
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 31,054
    Oh God. Carry on like this and it will be Warren or Harris.

    A second term of Trump will make the Second World War look like a warm up exercise.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,630
    Whatever's going on with him, he should not be joint favourite, despite current polling, and whatever HYUFD says...

    There's over a year to go until the presidential election, and he's not going to get any sharper.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,670

    TOPPING said:

    Until we JFDI Brexit nobody is going to know where they stand, this needs to end 31/10/19 no ifs, no buts.

    Blah blah blah.

    The country voted to leave and here we are on the cusp of a recession. So as result of the view we are now in this position.

    You are an economist. Did you expect the recession to emerge on July 1st 2016?
    No, I didn't expect a recession. Though if there was one due to uncertainty I thought it would happen in 2017.

    But either way the post-March is not Brexit, it is Brexit not occuring.
    And I suppose the post-Halloween catastrophe will be Brexit having been delayed.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,334
    edited August 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” (net wrong to leave)

    Scotland +42
    London +24
    Rest of South England +7
    Midlands and Wales -5
    North of England-6

    GB +8

    BJ is trying to grab the North while chucking away the South + Scotland. They’ll probably tell him to get stuffed: the North cos they hate his party, the South cos they hate him, and Scots cos we hate both.

    (YouGov / The Times Survey Results
    Sample Size: 1628 GB Adults Fieldwork: 5th - 6th August 2019)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

    Wrong.

    Boris leads Corbyn by a huge 45% to 15% margin as preferred PM in the South in the same poll, he leads Corbyn too 38% to 21% in the North, 41% to 16% in the Midlands and Wales.

    Boris even leads Corbyn 31% to 28% in Scotland and 30% to 24% in London
    But doesn't much of the SE prefer Ms Swinson to either...
    In a few places like Guildford and Lewes and St Albans maybe buy not enough to reverse the huge Tory majority in the SE especially with fear of Corbyn trumping fear of No Deal (and the SE narrowly voted Leave anyway)
    Fear of no deal will trump fear of Corbyn for many people. Especially since no one thinks Corbyn will get a majority - the worst that could happen is that he becomes PM of a minority government reliant on the Lib Dems and nationalists.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    SNP on just 39% in latest Yougov and Boris will not impose a hard border in Ireland

    Out of his hands at that point
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,820
    edited August 2019



    Oh God. Carry on like this and it will be Warren or Harris.

    A second term of Trump will make the Second World War look like a warm up exercise.
    I think Boris and Trump will be re elected now and Salvini will win a landslide in Italy too and become Italian PM in the autumn with elections now likely there after the collapse of the 5 star and Lega coalition.

    Though left liberals can console themselves that I think Trudeau will scrape re election in Canada in November albeit losing his majority
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,786
    Nigelb said:

    Whatever's going on with him, he should not be joint favourite, despite current polling, and whatever HYUFD says...

    There's over a year to go until the presidential election, and he's not going to get any sharper.
    Not so long until the the primaries.

    But yes, I struggle to see what the voters see in him. Is he really still being held up by Obama nostalgia and vague notions of electibility?
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 233
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” (net wrong to leave)

    Scotland +42
    London +24
    Rest of South England +7
    Midlands and Wales -5
    North of England-6

    GB +8

    BJ is trying to grab the North while chucking away the South + Scotland. They’ll probably tell him to get stuffed: the North cos they hate his party, the South cos they hate him, and Scots cos we hate both.

    (YouGov / The Times Survey Results
    Sample Size: 1628 GB Adults Fieldwork: 5th - 6th August 2019)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

    Wrong.

    Boris leads Corbyn by a huge 45% to 15% margin as preferred PM in the South in the same poll, he leads Corbyn too 38% to 21% in the North, 41% to 16% in the Midlands and Wales.

    Boris even leads Corbyn 31% to 28% in Scotland and 30% to 24% in London
    But doesn't much of the SE prefer Ms Swinson to either...
    The YouGov poll asks "who'd make the best PM" and allows as answers only Johnson, Corbyn or "skipped". It doesn't allow "neither", or allow other suggestions.
    In London, more respondents say they'll vote Labour than Tory or LD, but in the rest of the SE, LibDems are now well ahead of Labour - but still behind the Tories.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,524
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” (net wrong to leave)

    Scotland +42
    London +24
    Rest of South England +7
    Midlands and Wales -5
    North of England-6

    GB +8

    BJ is trying to grab the North while chucking away the South + Scotland. They’ll probably tell him to get stuffed: the North cos they hate his party, the South cos they hate him, and Scots cos we hate both.

    (YouGov / The Times Survey Results
    Sample Size: 1628 GB Adults Fieldwork: 5th - 6th August 2019)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

    Wrong.

    Boris leads Corbyn by a huge 45% to 15% margin as preferred PM in the South in the same poll, he leads Corbyn too 38% to 21% in the North, 41% to 16% in the Midlands and Wales.

    Boris even leads Corbyn 31% to 28% in Scotland and 30% to 24% in London
    But doesn't much of the SE prefer Ms Swinson to either...
    In a few places like Guildford and Lewes and St Albans maybe buy not enough to reverse the huge Tory majority in the SE especially with fear of Corbyn trumping fear of No Deal (and the SE narrowly voted Leave anyway)
    You either missed or didn’t understand the Worcester by-election result, then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,820
    edited August 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Whatever's going on with him, he should not be joint favourite, despite current polling, and whatever HYUFD says...

    There's over a year to go until the presidential election, and he's not going to get any sharper.
    I think Warren will be nominee now and Trump will beat her, she is John Kerry or Michael Dukakis in a skirt
  • geoffw said:

    Scott_P said:
    Johnsonism.
    McTernan appears to be a fan.
    McTernan is consistent in the quality of his punditry, I'll give him that.

    'New Labour Pundit Of The Year '

    https://tinyurl.com/yys2fgrx

    We in Scotland know that no-one ever lost money by betting against one of McTernan's confident predictions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,820
    edited August 2019
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” (net wrong to leave)

    Scotland +42
    London +24
    Rest of South England +7
    Midlands and Wales -5
    North of England-6

    GB +8

    BJ is trying to grab the North while chucking away the South + Scotland. They’ll probably tell him to get stuffed: the North cos they hate his party, the South cos they hate him, and Scots cos we hate both.

    (YouGov / The Times Survey Results
    Sample Size: 1628 GB Adults Fieldwork: 5th - 6th August 2019)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

    Wrong.

    Boris leads Corbyn by a huge 45% to 15% margin as preferred PM in the South in the same poll, he leads Corbyn too 38% to 21% in the North, 41% to 16% in the Midlands and Wales.

    Boris even leads Corbyn 31% to 28% in Scotland and 30% to 24% in London
    But doesn't much of the SE prefer Ms Swinson to either...
    In a few places like Guildford and Lewes and St Albans maybe buy not enough to reverse the huge Tory majority in the SE especially with fear of Corbyn trumping fear of No Deal (and the SE narrowly voted Leave anyway)
    You either missed or didn’t understand the Worcester by-election result, then.
    Worcester is a Tory v Labour marginal which saw a Labour to Tory swing last night yes
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,361



    Oh God. Carry on like this and it will be Warren or Harris.

    A second term of Trump will make the Second World War look like a warm up exercise.

    I find this offensive, it is a blatantly anti-semitic comment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,524
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” (net wrong to leave)

    Scotland +42
    London +24
    Rest of South England +7
    Midlands and Wales -5
    North of England-6

    GB +8

    BJ is trying to grab the North while chucking away the South + Scotland. They’ll probably tell him to get stuffed: the North cos they hate his party, the South cos they hate him, and Scots cos we hate both.

    (YouGov / The Times Survey Results
    Sample Size: 1628 GB Adults Fieldwork: 5th - 6th August 2019)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

    Wrong.

    Boris leads Corbyn by a huge 45% to 15% margin as preferred PM in the South in the same poll, he leads Corbyn too 38% to 21% in the North, 41% to 16% in the Midlands and Wales.

    Boris even leads Corbyn 31% to 28% in Scotland and 30% to 24% in London
    But doesn't much of the SE prefer Ms Swinson to either...
    In a few places like Guildford and Lewes and St Albans maybe buy not enough to reverse the huge Tory majority in the SE especially with fear of Corbyn trumping fear of No Deal (and the SE narrowly voted Leave anyway)
    You either missed or didn’t understand the Worcester by-election result, then.
    Worcester is a Tory v Labour marginal which saw a Labour to Tory swing last night yes
    Idiotic comments like that simply establish that it is the latter.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,121

    The pound is going through the floor against the Euro.

    Yes Johnson already cost me over 60 euro a month already it’s at almost the lowest level since October 2009
  • Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Until we JFDI Brexit nobody is going to know where they stand, this needs to end 31/10/19 no ifs, no buts.

    Blah blah blah.

    The country voted to leave and here we are on the cusp of a recession. So as result of the view we are now in this position.

    You are an economist. Did you expect the recession to emerge on July 1st 2016?
    No, I didn't expect a recession. Though if there was one due to uncertainty I thought it would happen in 2017.

    But either way the post-March is not Brexit, it is Brexit not occuring.
    And I suppose the post-Halloween catastrophe will be Brexit having been delayed.
    No, post-Halloween if we actually Brexit will be Brexit. That's the point.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,557



    Oh God. Carry on like this and it will be Warren or Harris.

    A second term of Trump will make the Second World War look like a warm up exercise.
    Warren is the one with the energetic campain and passion. Kamala has been dull, Biden needs to retire to his rocking chair and Sanders doesn't add anythiing that Warren hasn't got.

    Back for candidate rather than Potus though, though she might do the latter too.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,820
    Cyclefree said:

    @DavidL:-

    "Thirdly, I think it is very likely that London will continue to get access to the EU on favourable terms. The EU simply doesn't have a financial centre of adequate liquidity and skills without it."

    That is a very optimistic view.

    The EU is not going to let London continue to be the main financial centre for the EU. It will take back euro clearing. It has already made clear that any decision on equivalence will depend on political considerations i.e. even if London's rules are equivalent the EU may still not recognise them.

    This is not going to happen overnight but it will happen over time. It may mean that other centres become more dominant: New York, Singapore, for instance. It may mean that there is a more fractured financial services sector in Europe as a whole - in itself a risk - but it is simply far too complacent to assume that London is so indispensable that we need not worry about what will happen to it - and all the other sectors which depend on it.

    The risk is greater because of the apparent inevitability of a No Deal exit. Had there been an agreement and a transition period and then some sort of long-term agreement there would have been time to adjust and a fair amount of goodwill.

    There is none of that now. And the EU will not want, understandably, to have to depend on a financial sector in a third country with such a capricious and hostile political class.

    There is the short term and the long term here. In the short term other arrangements already in place will allow trading to continue: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/eu-withdrawal/temporary-permissions-regime

    In the longer term it is possible that other EU financial centres might seek to gain business from London and there will certainly be some brass plate movement as there has been already. How far that succeeds will depend on our arrangements with the EU. A deal is clearly a better scenario in that context.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,630
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Whatever's going on with him, he should not be joint favourite, despite current polling, and whatever HYUFD says...

    There's over a year to go until the presidential election, and he's not going to get any sharper.
    I think Warren will be nominee now and Trump will beat her, she is John Kerry or Michael Dukakis in a skirt
    Lazy caricature.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,775
    HYUFD said:



    Oh God. Carry on like this and it will be Warren or Harris.

    A second term of Trump will make the Second World War look like a warm up exercise.
    I think Boris and Trump will be re elected now and Salvini will win a landslide in Italy too and become Italian PM in the autumn with elections now likely there after the collapse of the 5 star and Lega coalition.

    Though left liberals can console themselves that I think Trudeau will scrape re election in Canada in November albeit losing his majority
    Good news if Trudeau does lose his majority and he has to rely on NDP support. He'd have to move leftwards.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,420

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” (net wrong to leave)

    Scotland +42
    London +24
    Rest of South England +7
    Midlands and Wales -5
    North of England-6

    GB +8

    BJ is trying to grab the North while chucking away the South + Scotland. They’ll probably tell him to get stuffed: the North cos they hate his party, the South cos they hate him, and Scots cos we hate both.

    (YouGov / The Times Survey Results
    Sample Size: 1628 GB Adults Fieldwork: 5th - 6th August 2019)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

    Wrong.

    Boris leads Corbyn by a huge 45% to 15% margin as preferred PM in the South in the same poll, he leads Corbyn too 38% to 21% in the North, 41% to 16% in the Midlands and Wales.

    Boris even leads Corbyn 31% to 28% in Scotland and 30% to 24% in London
    But doesn't much of the SE prefer Ms Swinson to either...
    In a few places like Guildford and Lewes and St Albans maybe buy not enough to reverse the huge Tory majority in the SE especially with fear of Corbyn trumping fear of No Deal (and the SE narrowly voted Leave anyway)
    Fear of no deal will trump fear of Corbyn for many people. Especially since no one thinks Corbyn will get a majority - the worst that could happen is that he becomes PM of a minority government reliant on the Lib Dems and nationalists.
    How does "fear of the unknown" work when that unknown is an actual thing by polling day? It will be "pissed off at the inevitable" by then. And if it is a terrible actual thing, then Boris fires Gove for being shit at his job. And if it is not such a terrible actual thing, then Boris and Gove can be reconciled. But Gove will still be in the shadows of a Boris being lauded for having negotiated the choppy waters of Brexit (if not actually a 999,999/1,000,000 likely deal).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,630
    Foxy said:



    Oh God. Carry on like this and it will be Warren or Harris.

    A second term of Trump will make the Second World War look like a warm up exercise.
    Warren is the one with the energetic campain and passion. Kamala has been dull, Biden needs to retire to his rocking chair and Sanders doesn't add anythiing that Warren hasn't got.

    Back for candidate rather than Potus though, though she might do the latter too.
    Early days - particularly if Biden does relinquish his lead.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,820
    edited August 2019
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Whatever's going on with him, he should not be joint favourite, despite current polling, and whatever HYUFD says...

    There's over a year to go until the presidential election, and he's not going to get any sharper.
    I think Warren will be nominee now and Trump will beat her, she is John Kerry or Michael Dukakis in a skirt
    Lazy caricature.
    No fact, I expect Trump to win the popular vote as well as the electoral college against Warren, she will not win the South or the rustbelt swing states, she might even lose Virginia which Hillary won.

    A Massachusetts liberal elitist like Warren is Trump's ideal opponent
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,630
    edited August 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Whatever's going on with him, he should not be joint favourite, despite current polling, and whatever HYUFD says...

    There's over a year to go until the presidential election, and he's not going to get any sharper.
    I think Warren will be nominee now and Trump will beat her, she is John Kerry or Michael Dukakis in a skirt
    Lazy caricature.
    No fact, I expect Trump to win the popular vote as well as the electoral college against Warren, she will not win the South or the rustbelt swing states, she might even lose Virginia which Hillary won
    You have yet to learn to distinguish your opinions from facts.


    In my opinion.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,670

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.

    I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
    The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.

    As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
    Rightly criticised and mocked because it didn't happen.

    The period of "just a vote" ended on 29/3/19. Anything that happened then isn't due to Brexit it is due to Remainers in Parliament cancelling/delaying Brexit.
    And even if the UK sinks slowly into the sea on 1 November, no doubt you can keep peddling just the same nonsense.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,630
    edited August 2019
    HYUFD said:




    A Massachusetts liberal elitist like Warren...

    More caricature.

    And just as lazy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,820
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” (net wrong to leave)

    Scotland +42
    London +24
    Rest of South England +7
    Midlands and Wales -5
    North of England-6

    GB +8

    BJ is trying to grab the North while chucking away the South + Scotland. They’ll probably tell him to get stuffed: the North cos they hate his party, the South cos they hate him, and Scots cos we hate both.

    (YouGov / The Times Survey Results
    Sample Size: 1628 GB Adults Fieldwork: 5th - 6th August 2019)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

    Wrong.

    Boris leads Corbyn by a huge 45% to 15% margin as preferred PM in the South in the same poll, he leads Corbyn too 38% to 21% in the North, 41% to 16% in the Midlands and Wales.

    Boris even leads Corbyn 31% to 28% in Scotland and 30% to 24% in London
    But doesn't much of the SE prefer Ms Swinson to either...
    In a few places like Guildford and Lewes and St Albans maybe buy not enough to reverse the huge Tory majority in the SE especially with fear of Corbyn trumping fear of No Deal (and the SE narrowly voted Leave anyway)
    You either missed or didn’t understand the Worcester by-election result, then.
    Worcester is a Tory v Labour marginal which saw a Labour to Tory swing last night yes
    Idiotic comments like that simply establish that it is the latter.
    If anyone is making idiotic comments it is you, Worcester was 48% Tory, 43% Labour and 3% LD at the last general election, the LDs have no chance there, the only swing that matters at national level in Worcester is the Tory v Labour one
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,121
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” (net wrong to leave)

    Scotland +42
    London +24
    Rest of South England +7
    Midlands and Wales -5
    North of England-6

    GB +8

    BJ is trying to grab the North while chucking away the South + Scotland. They’ll probably tell him to get stuffed: the North cos they hate his party, the South cos they hate him, and Scots cos we hate both.

    (YouGov / The Times Survey Results
    Sample Size: 1628 GB Adults Fieldwork: 5th - 6th August 2019)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

    Wrong.

    Boris leads Corbyn by a huge 45% to 15% margin as preferred PM in the South in the same poll, he leads Corbyn too 38% to 21% in the North, 41% to 16% in the Midlands and Wales.

    Boris even leads Corbyn 31% to 28% in Scotland and 30% to 24% in London
    But doesn't much of the SE prefer Ms Swinson to either...
    In a few places like Guildford and Lewes and St Albans maybe buy not enough to reverse the huge Tory majority in the SE especially with fear of Corbyn trumping fear of No Deal (and the SE narrowly voted Leave anyway)
    You either missed or didn’t understand the Worcester by-election result, then.
    Worcester is a Tory v Labour marginal which saw a Labour to Tory swing last night yes
    Idiotic comments like that simply establish that it is the latter.
    Ian it’s not worth the effort.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,820

    HYUFD said:



    Oh God. Carry on like this and it will be Warren or Harris.

    A second term of Trump will make the Second World War look like a warm up exercise.
    I think Boris and Trump will be re elected now and Salvini will win a landslide in Italy too and become Italian PM in the autumn with elections now likely there after the collapse of the 5 star and Lega coalition.

    Though left liberals can console themselves that I think Trudeau will scrape re election in Canada in November albeit losing his majority
    Good news if Trudeau does lose his majority and he has to rely on NDP support. He'd have to move leftwards.
    Possibly but the Canadian Tories will likely make gains too
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,670

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Until we JFDI Brexit nobody is going to know where they stand, this needs to end 31/10/19 no ifs, no buts.

    Blah blah blah.

    The country voted to leave and here we are on the cusp of a recession. So as result of the view we are now in this position.

    You are an economist. Did you expect the recession to emerge on July 1st 2016?
    No, I didn't expect a recession. Though if there was one due to uncertainty I thought it would happen in 2017.

    But either way the post-March is not Brexit, it is Brexit not occuring.
    And I suppose the post-Halloween catastrophe will be Brexit having been delayed.
    No, post-Halloween if we actually Brexit will be Brexit. That's the point.
    You're telling me if we leave on 31 October and it goes catastrophically you're not going to make any excuses. You're going to admit Brexit is responsible for the catastrophe?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,119
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @DavidL:-

    "Thirdly, I think it is very likely that London will continue to get access to the EU on favourable terms. The EU simply doesn't have a financial centre of adequate liquidity and skills without it."

    That is a very optimistic view.

    The EU is not going to let London continue to be the main financial centre for the EU. It will take back euro clearing. It has already made clear that any decision on equivalence will depend on political considerations i.e. even if London's rules are equivalent the EU may still not recognise them.

    This is not going to happen overnight but it will happen over time. It may mean that other centres become more dominant: New York, Singapore, for instance. It may mean that there is a more fractured financial services sector in Europe as a whole - in itself a risk - but it is simply far too complacent to assume that London is so indispensable that we need not worry about what will happen to it - and all the other sectors which depend on it.

    The risk is greater because of the apparent inevitability of a No Deal exit. Had there been an agreement and a transition period and then some sort of long-term agreement there would have been time to adjust and a fair amount of goodwill.

    There is none of that now. And the EU will not want, understandably, to have to depend on a financial sector in a third country with such a capricious and hostile political class.

    There is the short term and the long term here. In the short term other arrangements already in place will allow trading to continue: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/eu-withdrawal/temporary-permissions-regime

    In the longer term it is possible that other EU financial centres might seek to gain business from London and there will certainly be some brass plate movement as there has been already. How far that succeeds will depend on our arrangements with the EU. A deal is clearly a better scenario in that context.
    It will be more than brass plate movement. And it will not limit itself to finance. Paris is already setting up an English law court so that parties can resolve their differences there. The utter neglect of our courts, judicial and legal system here does not help. All marginal factors but over time they start to add up.

    Of course a deal would be better.

    But that is precisely what our government had set its face against. And its supporters then criticise those who point out that this is sub-optimal for one of Britain's biggest sectors.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,820
    edited August 2019
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:




    A Massachusetts liberal elitist like Warren...

    More caricature.

    And just as lazy.
    Will just make your devastation on election night even worse, might as well get used to it now before the Trump victory party and not get your hopes up.

    If you think a Massachusetts liberal elitist will best Trump in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Virginia, Nevada etc that is up to you, history talks us different especially as it takes some special to beat an incumbent president after only one term of his party in the White House, Reagan was the last to do so and Warren is no Reagan
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Until we JFDI Brexit nobody is going to know where they stand, this needs to end 31/10/19 no ifs, no buts.

    Blah blah blah.

    The country voted to leave and here we are on the cusp of a recession. So as result of the view we are now in this position.

    You are an economist. Did you expect the recession to emerge on July 1st 2016?
    No, I didn't expect a recession. Though if there was one due to uncertainty I thought it would happen in 2017.

    But either way the post-March is not Brexit, it is Brexit not occuring.
    And I suppose the post-Halloween catastrophe will be Brexit having been delayed.
    No, post-Halloween if we actually Brexit will be Brexit. That's the point.
    You're telling me if we leave on 31 October and it goes catastrophically you're not going to make any excuses. You're going to admit Brexit is responsible for the catastrophe?
    I am expecting a small downturn due to Brexit, I've said that all along. Its like a hockey stick, there will be a period of disruption and adjustment before we recover. The problems due to Brexit will be upfront, the benefits will take time.

    If there's a global recession this year then that won't be Brexit, it will be long overdue [its been 11 years since the start of the last downturn], and the two combined might not be pleasant.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,955
    Miss Cyclefree, the PM et al. are behaving foolishly, but it's worth repeating that there was a deal to vote for, and those MPs who voted to have a say on it then voted thrice against the deal. That wasn't the Conservatives' doing.

    If Labour refuses to back a deal, the only alternatives are leaving without one, or remaining in (or another referendum). All are very politically contentious.

    Of course, I'd have more sympathy for Boris Johnson if he hadn't painted himself into a corner, but there we are.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,524
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” (net wrong to leave)

    Scotland +42
    London +24
    Rest of South England +7
    Midlands and Wales -5
    North of England-6

    GB +8

    BJ is trying to grab the North while chucking away the South + Scotland. They’ll probably tell him to get stuffed: the North cos they hate his party, the South cos they hate him, and Scots cos we hate both.

    (YouGov / The Times Survey Results
    Sample Size: 1628 GB Adults Fieldwork: 5th - 6th August 2019)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

    Wrong.

    Boris leads Corbyn by a huge 45% to 15% margin as preferred PM in the South in the same poll, he leads Corbyn too 38% to 21% in the North, 41% to 16% in the Midlands and Wales.

    Boris even leads Corbyn 31% to 28% in Scotland and 30% to 24% in London
    But doesn't much of the SE prefer Ms Swinson to either...
    In a few places like Guildford and Lewes and St Albans maybe buy not enough to reverse the huge Tory majority in the SE especially with fear of Corbyn trumping fear of No Deal (and the SE narrowly voted Leave anyway)
    You either missed or didn’t understand the Worcester by-election result, then.
    Worcester is a Tory v Labour marginal which saw a Labour to Tory swing last night yes
    Idiotic comments like that simply establish that it is the latter.
    If anyone is making idiotic comments it is you, Worcester was 48% Tory, 43% Labour and 3% LD at the last general election, the LDs have no chance there, the only swing that matters at national level in Worcester is the Tory v Labour one
    Why do you bother posting here if you are so incapable of engaging on any sort of intelligent basis?

    As someone says below, it’s not worth it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,420
    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.

    I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
    The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.

    As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
    Rightly criticised and mocked because it didn't happen.

    The period of "just a vote" ended on 29/3/19. Anything that happened then isn't due to Brexit it is due to Remainers in Parliament cancelling/delaying Brexit.
    And even if the UK sinks slowly into the sea on 1 November, no doubt you can keep peddling just the same nonsense.
    Your "the UK sinks slowly into the sea" is orders of magnitude greater nonsense.

    Because your expected mass exodus of people will actually cause the landmass to rise slightly.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,670
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @DavidL:-

    "Thirdly, I think it is very likely that London will continue to get access to the EU on favourable terms. The EU simply doesn't have a financial centre of adequate liquidity and skills without it."

    That is a very optimistic view.

    The EU is not going to let London continue to be the main financial centre for the EU. It will take back euro clearing. It has already made clear that any decision on equivalence will depend on political considerations i.e. even if London's rules are equivalent the EU may still not recognise them.

    This is not going to happen overnight but it will happen over time. It may mean that other centres become more dominant: New York, Singapore, for instance. It may mean that there is a more fractured financial services sector in Europe as a whole - in itself a risk - but it is simply far too complacent to assume that London is so indispensable that we need not worry about what will happen to it - and all the other sectors which depend on it.

    The risk is greater because of the apparent inevitability of a No Deal exit. Had there been an agreement and a transition period and then some sort of long-term agreement there would have been time to adjust and a fair amount of goodwill.

    There is none of that now. And the EU will not want, understandably, to have to depend on a financial sector in a third country with such a capricious and hostile political class.

    There is the short term and the long term here. In the short term other arrangements already in place will allow trading to continue: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/eu-withdrawal/temporary-permissions-regime

    In the longer term it is possible that other EU financial centres might seek to gain business from London and there will certainly be some brass plate movement as there has been already. How far that succeeds will depend on our arrangements with the EU. A deal is clearly a better scenario in that context.
    It will be more than brass plate movement. And it will not limit itself to finance. Paris is already setting up an English law court so that parties can resolve their differences there. The utter neglect of our courts, judicial and legal system here does not help. All marginal factors but over time they start to add up.

    Of course a deal would be better.

    But that is precisely what our government had set its face against. And its supporters then criticise those who point out that this is sub-optimal for one of Britain's biggest sectors.

    It's so obvious that the whole thing has been driven by political considerations from the time it was a gleam in David Cameron's eye to No one in their right mind would have advocated it on economic grounds.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    HYUFD said:



    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Whatever's going on with him, he should not be joint favourite, despite current polling, and whatever HYUFD says...

    There's over a year to go until the presidential election, and he's not going to get any sharper.
    I think Warren will be nominee now and Trump will beat her, she is John Kerry or Michael Dukakis in a skirt
    Lazy caricature.
    No fact, I expect Trump to win the popular vote as well as the electoral college against Warren, she will not win the South or the rustbelt swing states, she might even lose Virginia which Hillary won.

    A Massachusetts liberal elitist like Warren is Trump's ideal opponent
    In my opinion it doesn't matter who the Democrats pick if that candidate fails to move public debate on from Trump.

    If the media and his opponents remain obsessed by Trump's lack of moral character then the main message from the Democrats is that voters were assholes for voting for him in 2016. That's not a persuasive argument.

    At least Warren has a bold and prominent policy to campaign on to take attention away from Trump as a person. I've no idea what policies Biden or Harris have.

    On that basis I'd reckon on Warren having a better chance against Trump than Biden/Harris.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,670
    edited August 2019
    Duplicate
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,420
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:




    A Massachusetts liberal elitist like Warren...

    More caricature.

    And just as lazy.
    It's a caricature that will work well in Michigan and Pennsylvania though.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,195
    The other pb is currently conducting a twitter quiz which some on here might find fun:

  • Miss Cyclefree, the PM et al. are behaving foolishly, but it's worth repeating that there was a deal to vote for, and those MPs who voted to have a say on it then voted thrice against the deal. That wasn't the Conservatives' doing.

    If Labour refuses to back a deal, the only alternatives are leaving without one, or remaining in (or another referendum). All are very politically contentious.

    Of course, I'd have more sympathy for Boris Johnson if he hadn't painted himself into a corner, but there we are.

    What corner has Boris painted himself into?

    May backed into a corner, Boris is trying to get out of it.

    Extending purgatory is the worst possible outcome. Continuous fake no deals that lead to shut downs is the worst possible outcome. Its time to crap or get off the pan.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,004
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Nigelb said:



    Who exactly forced Mrs May to request an extension?
    And by which means?
    Did Mr Hammond point a gun at her head? Or Mr Juncker perhaps?

    May foolishly chose to let MPs decide whether to extend and rather that choose one of the 3 available end states they chose to drag on this madness.

    Thankfully Boris isn't making the same mistake.
    Thanks goodness he's finding original ways to cock things up ?
    Yes. If we are going to cock things up at least do it in an original manner. Its how evolution works to make things better.
    Phillip, The other day when I suggested the EU could stop the clock until we sorted out say a GE you said that was not possible. Professor Bogdanor whom I am guessing you would agree knows more about this than you or me begs to differ. He has just said precisely that.
    I said that it was unlawful under the EU Constitution.

    Professor Bogdanor has said [to my knowledge, only read snippets quoted here] that it would be lawful under UK law to do a retroactive change. That I agree with. EU law and UK law are not identical and UK law is more open to fudge.
    He also seemed quite happy that the EU could do it. That was the point of what he was saying, that it could be done. It was a suggested solution. In fact the more challenging aspect seemed to be the retrospective change by the UK for which he gave an example (war crimes). He did not say or imply there would be any issues on the EU side. If there were you would have thought he would have mentioned them as otherwise the whole point of him bringing it up would have been, well pointless. He thought the EU would be quite keen in fact.
    He's wrong. Article 50(5) is explicit that a state that has left must rejoin according to the normal accession process.

    With goodwill all round (an optimistic assumption), an Accession Treaty could be agreed on status quo ante terms and signed off very quickly. The UK is in full accordance with the acquis, after all. However, the implementation of such a treaty would require ratification in all 27 EU member states and the EP, as well as in the UK; not just a vote in the European Council.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,820
    edited August 2019

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:




    A Massachusetts liberal elitist like Warren...

    More caricature.

    And just as lazy.
    It's a caricature that will work well in Michigan and Pennsylvania though.
    Exactly and the Trump machine will press it relentlessly
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,670

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Until we JFDI Brexit nobody is going to know where they stand, this needs to end 31/10/19 no ifs, no buts.

    Blah blah blah.

    The country voted to leave and here we are on the cusp of a recession. So as result of the view we are now in this position.

    You are an economist. Did you expect the recession to emerge on July 1st 2016?
    No, I didn't expect a recession. Though if there was one due to uncertainty I thought it would happen in 2017.

    But either way the post-March is not Brexit, it is Brexit not occuring.
    And I suppose the post-Halloween catastrophe will be Brexit having been delayed.
    No, post-Halloween if we actually Brexit will be Brexit. That's the point.
    You're telling me if we leave on 31 October and it goes catastrophically you're not going to make any excuses. You're going to admit Brexit is responsible for the catastrophe?
    I am expecting a small downturn due to Brexit, I've said that all along. Its like a hockey stick, there will be a period of disruption and adjustment before we recover. The problems due to Brexit will be upfront, the benefits will take time.

    If there's a global recession this year then that won't be Brexit, it will be long overdue [its been 11 years since the start of the last downturn], and the two combined might not be pleasant.
    But unless there's a global recession, you won't be making any excuses if Brexit turns out catastrophically?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,670

    Miss Cyclefree, the PM et al. are behaving foolishly, but it's worth repeating that there was a deal to vote for, and those MPs who voted to have a say on it then voted thrice against the deal. That wasn't the Conservatives' doing.

    If Labour refuses to back a deal, the only alternatives are leaving without one, or remaining in (or another referendum). All are very politically contentious.

    Of course, I'd have more sympathy for Boris Johnson if he hadn't painted himself into a corner, but there we are.

    What corner has Boris painted himself into?

    May backed into a corner, Boris is trying to get out of it.

    Extending purgatory is the worst possible outcome. Continuous fake no deals that lead to shut downs is the worst possible outcome. Its time to crap or get off the pan.
    You're starting to sound like a euthanasia campaigner.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,820
    edited August 2019
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” (net wrong to leave)

    Scotland +42
    London +24
    Rest of South England +7
    Midlands and Wales -5
    North of England-6

    GB +8

    BJ is trying to grab the North while chucking away the South + Scotland. They’ll probably tell him to get stuffed: the North cos they hate his party, the South cos they hate him, and Scots cos we hate both.

    (YouGov / The Times Survey Results
    Sample Size: 1628 GB Adults Fieldwork: 5th - 6th August 2019)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

    Wrong.

    Boris leads Corbyn by a huge 45% to 15% margin as preferred PM in the South in the same poll, he leads Corbyn too 38% to 21% in the North, 41% to 16% in the Midlands and Wales.

    Boris even leads Corbyn 31% to 28% in Scotland and 30% to 24% in London
    But doesn't much of the SE prefer Ms Swinson to either...
    In a few places like Guildford and Lewes and St Albans maybe buy not enough to reverse the huge Tory majority in the SE especially with fear of Corbyn trumping fear of No Deal (and the SE narrowly voted Leave anyway)
    You either missed or didn’t understand the Worcester by-election result, then.
    Worcester is a Tory v Labour marginal which saw a Labour to Tory swing last night yes
    Idiotic comments like that simply establish that it is the latter.
    If anyone is making idiotic comments it is you, Worcester was 48% Tory, 43% Labour and 3% LD at the last general election, the LDs have no chance there, the only swing that matters at national level in Worcester is the Tory v Labour one
    Why do you bother posting here if you are so incapable of engaging on any sort of intelligent basis?

    As someone says below, it’s not worth it.
    As well as being rude you obviously can't count.

    The swing in Worcester last night applied to the parliamentary seat would have produced a result of Tories 53%, Labour 31% and LDs 12%
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,955
    Mr. Thompson, I don't believe Johnson does want no deal. He said what he thought would get him elected. Now he's unable to try anything.

    A sincere attempt to change things would actually involve proposing a credible alternative to the backstop as it stands, rather than just saying 'not this'.

    Of course, the EU's highly principled stance of saying "We're ready to talk but nothing can be changed" isn't great either.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Chris said:

    You're starting to sound like a euthanasia campaigner.

    Was it Alastair that proposed the Brexit Party should have called themselves Brignitas?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,835

    Scott_P said:
    - "I'll tell you a riddle. You're waiting for a Brexit Deal, a Brexit Deal that you will take you far away. You know where you hope the Brexit Deal will take you, but you can't know for sure. Yet it doesn't matter. Now, tell me why?"

    - "Because we'll be Better Together."


    Scots are now very significantly poorer than the Irish, the Norwegians, the Swedes, the Danes, the Icelanders or any of their obvious comparators. Every one of those nations is in the top 10 of the UN Human Development Index. The UK is not, and Scotland is below the mean for the UK. It is not because Scots are stupid or feckless, it not because of climate and it is certainly not a lack of natural resources. It is because of the draining away of human and physical resource by London over centuries.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:

    It is not because Scots are stupid or feckless

    In general that's true, but the current SNP front bench are obvious exceptions...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,119

    Miss Cyclefree, the PM et al. are behaving foolishly, but it's worth repeating that there was a deal to vote for, and those MPs who voted to have a say on it then voted thrice against the deal. That wasn't the Conservatives' doing.

    If Labour refuses to back a deal, the only alternatives are leaving without one, or remaining in (or another referendum). All are very politically contentious.

    Of course, I'd have more sympathy for Boris Johnson if he hadn't painted himself into a corner, but there we are.

    No - there's an obvious other choice you've ignored.

    Change May's red lines and negotiate a fresh deal, taking the time to do so, to learn from the mistakes May made and ensuring that you do so in a way which gets your party / Parliament behind it. Of course that would involve getting an extension. But of all the things to make a red line, an arbitrary date imposed by the EU is by far the stupidest.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,630
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:
    - "I'll tell you a riddle. You're waiting for a Brexit Deal, a Brexit Deal that you will take you far away. You know where you hope the Brexit Deal will take you, but you can't know for sure. Yet it doesn't matter. Now, tell me why?"

    - "Because we'll be Better Together."


    Scots are now very significantly poorer than the Irish, the Norwegians, the Swedes, the Danes, the Icelanders or any of their obvious comparators. Every one of those nations is in the top 10 of the UN Human Development Index. The UK is not, and Scotland is below the mean for the UK. It is not because Scots are stupid or feckless, it not because of climate and it is certainly not a lack of natural resources. It is because of the draining away of human and physical resource by London over centuries.
    Goes for much of the rest of the UK.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Miss Cyclefree, the PM et al. are behaving foolishly, but it's worth repeating that there was a deal to vote for, and those MPs who voted to have a say on it then voted thrice against the deal. That wasn't the Conservatives' doing.

    If Labour refuses to back a deal, the only alternatives are leaving without one, or remaining in (or another referendum). All are very politically contentious.

    Of course, I'd have more sympathy for Boris Johnson if he hadn't painted himself into a corner, but there we are.

    No - there's an obvious other choice you've ignored.

    Change May's red lines and negotiate a fresh deal, taking the time to do so, to learn from the mistakes May made and ensuring that you do so in a way which gets your party / Parliament behind it. Of course that would involve getting an extension. But of all the things to make a red line, an arbitrary date imposed by the EU is by far the stupidest.
    Can you name one red line to change that would be consistent with what Boris argued during the referendum?
  • Its not stupid to make the date a red line and its not arbitrary just because the EU chose it. Companies need to know what the hell is going on and they've been told this date for six months now, they're planning for this date.

    If we delay for another 3 or 6 months - unless we have a guarantee that the delay is worthwhile - then we are just prolonging the uncertainty and even worse making any preparations nul and void.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,670
    Cyclefree said:

    Miss Cyclefree, the PM et al. are behaving foolishly, but it's worth repeating that there was a deal to vote for, and those MPs who voted to have a say on it then voted thrice against the deal. That wasn't the Conservatives' doing.

    If Labour refuses to back a deal, the only alternatives are leaving without one, or remaining in (or another referendum). All are very politically contentious.

    Of course, I'd have more sympathy for Boris Johnson if he hadn't painted himself into a corner, but there we are.

    No - there's an obvious other choice you've ignored.

    Change May's red lines and negotiate a fresh deal, taking the time to do so, to learn from the mistakes May made and ensuring that you do so in a way which gets your party / Parliament behind it. Of course that would involve getting an extension. But of all the things to make a red line, an arbitrary date imposed by the EU is by far the stupidest.
    It would be ironic if the little Englanders twigged that Johnson had screwed the UK by embracing for his short-term political gain a deadline imposed by the old enemy across the Channel!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,835

    Scott_P said:
    The Union: more honoured in the breach than in the observance.
    Filled with the usual cliches, looking backwards rather than in the here and now, the union is bugg**ed.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,835
    geoffw said:

    Scott_P said:
    Johnsonism.
    McTernan appears to be a fan.
    McTernan is the kiss of Death
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Companies need to know what the hell is going on and they've been told this date for six months now, they're planning for this date.

    They were told March for 2 years, and it didn't happen coz BoZo and his pals wouldn't vote for it.
  • Scott_P said:

    Companies need to know what the hell is going on and they've been told this date for six months now, they're planning for this date.

    They were told March for 2 years, and it didn't happen coz BoZo and his pals wouldn't vote for it.
    Wrong. Actually Boris and his pals voted against extending in March.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,630
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:




    A Massachusetts liberal elitist like Warren...

    More caricature.

    And just as lazy.
    It's a caricature that will work well in Michigan and Pennsylvania though.
    Exactly and the Trump machine will press it relentlessly
    A lower middle class self-made woman, who waited tables in school, and made her political reputation campaigning against finance companies ripping off poor debtors... running against a fat billionaire who inherited his wealth ?

    Yeah, it will go down really well.

  • Mr. Thompson, I don't believe Johnson does want no deal. He said what he thought would get him elected. Now he's unable to try anything.

    A sincere attempt to change things would actually involve proposing a credible alternative to the backstop as it stands, rather than just saying 'not this'.

    Of course, the EU's highly principled stance of saying "We're ready to talk but nothing can be changed" isn't great either.

    There is no need for an alternative to the backstop.

    The backstop only kicks in years from now anyway, so why does it need to be agreed now? The alternative is no backstop, we enter the transition and negotiate what happens at the end of the transition during the transition.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,835

    Scott_P said:
    Say Johnson wins a snap election with enough of a majority to get a deal through. He then dumps the DUP and agrees a NI-only backstop so no border in Ireland. UK wide backstop dumped.

    Possible?
    Would be good just to see the DUP getting their just desserts
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,119
    edited August 2019

    Mr. Thompson, I don't believe Johnson does want no deal. He said what he thought would get him elected. Now he's unable to try anything.

    A sincere attempt to change things would actually involve proposing a credible alternative to the backstop as it stands, rather than just saying 'not this'.

    Of course, the EU's highly principled stance of saying "We're ready to talk but nothing can be changed" isn't great either.

    The backstop is not the issue as the PM's envoy to Brussels made clear the other day. The EU hypothetically asked whether the WA would be acceptable if the backstop was removed and David Frost replied no.

    Johnson is tearing everything up and proposing nothing in its place.

    There was once a reasonable Eurosceptic case. But the Brexiteers have no coherent case at all: it is about saying no, hatred and pulling things down rather than creating things and resolving problems. It is entirely negative.

    The only positive vision Brexiteers seem to have is to ally themselves with a President who thinks nothing of posing with a baby whose parents were shot trying to protect him, while grinning like a booby and giving a thumbs up signal.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Cyclefree said:

    Miss Cyclefree, the PM et al. are behaving foolishly, but it's worth repeating that there was a deal to vote for, and those MPs who voted to have a say on it then voted thrice against the deal. That wasn't the Conservatives' doing.

    If Labour refuses to back a deal, the only alternatives are leaving without one, or remaining in (or another referendum). All are very politically contentious.

    Of course, I'd have more sympathy for Boris Johnson if he hadn't painted himself into a corner, but there we are.

    No - there's an obvious other choice you've ignored.

    Change May's red lines and negotiate a fresh deal, taking the time to do so, to learn from the mistakes May made and ensuring that you do so in a way which gets your party / Parliament behind it. Of course that would involve getting an extension. But of all the things to make a red line, an arbitrary date imposed by the EU is by far the stupidest.
    Can you name one red line to change that would be consistent with what Boris argued during the referendum?
    Freedom of Movement. Boris is pro-immigration.
This discussion has been closed.