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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit betting moves closer and closer to no deal – now a

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  • MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Interesting comments from Chuka:

    However, on Friday the Lib Dem Chuka Umunna, a former Labour MP, claimed a “substantial minority” of his former colleagues would not support Corbyn being prime minister.

    “The problem there is with the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn taking up the role of leading an emergency government is he cannot command a majority among his own MPs, never mind others like Conservative rebels who would refuse to give him confidence,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

    “I know, because I have spoken to them. There is a substantial minority of Labour MPs at the very least who simply would not countenance Jeremy Corbyn being the prime minister of this country. So the question is, is there a figure who, as an alternative, could command a majority?”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/09/no-10-cancels-staff-leave-raising-possibility-of-snap-election

    Does this also beg the question what might happen if Labour had most seats (so could govern with the SNP) post a GE?

    If Labour need the support of another party to form a government, then unless Jeremy Corbyn's approval ratings change dramatically, that other party is going to make his replacement as candidate for Prime Minister a precondition of support.
    Even the SNP?

    I'm sure the Lib Dems would 100% insist on his replacement.

    But I would have thought the SNP would allow him to be PM - especially as he would likely allow an Indy referendum - whereas a replacement like Starmer might well not.

    But coming back to Chuka's comments - are there 20, 30 or 40 Lab MPs who would suddenly finally come out of the woodwork and block him? They have gone along with him as Leader of Opposition - but might they draw the line at him becoming PM?
    Think Chuka's on a haver.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,734
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Devaluing currency never did Zimbabwe or Venezuela any harm.

    Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.

    Absolutely. Just look how Germany has bounced back from its Weimar days. Sure, there will be a period of painful transitions but we'll recover, just like the Germans did!
    In all seriousness though, it may "only" turn out to have a minor impact on shop stuff, and a moderate impact on overseas travel.

    Trouble is, there are millions of people with very little disposable income at the end of the month, so a small rise in living costs pretty much wipes out the ability to save.

    Still, all worth it, I'm sure.
    In all seriousness, the most sinful aspect of Labour's attitude on Brexit is that it those people, the ones Labour is supposed to protect, who will be hit first and hardest.
    Unforgivable, and it's why they're on 20% in the polls, with no sign of recovery.

    20%, after *years* of the current shit-show. They'd be on a higher number if they were led by a tailor's dummy, and I'm not sure I'm even joking.

    The cowardice of the PLP has been appalling.
    Not really true. Even with Yougov Labour has recovered to 22% compared with 18% a few weeks ago. Comres and Opinium have them on 30% and 28% respectively.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 5,671
    Scott_P said:
    Wow. How prophetic of me! Clearly many Tories were under the impression that the No Deal threat was simply a negotiating posture. (I bet that's what Boris told those Remain Tories during the leadership campaign.) I wonder what will happen as it slowly dawns that Cummings is serious about this.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,058
    Maybe Corbyn will be able to pull this out of the bag after all:

  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,447
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    As a matter of fact sterling has lost only about 27% of its value against the dollar in the last decade (and only about 12% of its value since its low point at January 2019 - about the same as the amount it's lost since April 2018).

    The CPI has risen by about 24% over the last decade.

    It's probably best to check the "facts" coming from the extreme Brexit lot.

    You do realise CPI is supposed to rise over a decade?

    Target CPI is 2% per annum. That compounded is 22% over a decade.

    CPI has risen by a compound average of about 2.1% per annum over the past decade.

    So your numbers show Sterling has fallen 27% over a decade and during the decade the average is to be 0.1% away from target. Not 0.1% more than the 3% letter threshold the average is to be 0.1% off target!
    First, can you correct your bizarre misstatement about sterling having lost 40% of its value over a decade?

    That was completely untrue. Sorry, but you can't just dance on to the next round of misinformation and diversionary nonsense.
    And after that, please tell us what on earth you meant by "90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro." Who knows, perhaps with sufficient instruction we'll become fluent enough in Brexit-gibberish to make some sense of your comments!
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,557

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    Penddu said:

    Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.

    Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
    Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
    He means those living in the UK as penniless ex immigrants return from EU countries. Many of whom are of retirement age with medical conditions and will strain the NHS and who won’t have any capital to buy property because the housing market herme may collapse because too many properties go on the market at the same time. Like Felix I have a good cushion but many who came out on just the state pension when it was 1.5 will be struggling now.
    Well, we'll be out of the EU and free to make our own laws then. We can simply bar from entry any such potential returnees who do not have the means to support themselves.

    Serves them right, no?
    Lol - it really is not feasible to stop UK citizens coming back to the UK - most of those I'm talking about are not hardened terrorists, criminals, lunatics, etc. Some of them are a bit thick but heigh ho....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,146

    MikeL said:

    Interesting comments from Chuka:

    However, on Friday the Lib Dem Chuka Umunna, a former Labour MP, claimed a “substantial minority” of his former colleagues would not support Corbyn being prime minister.

    “The problem there is with the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn taking up the role of leading an emergency government is he cannot command a majority among his own MPs, never mind others like Conservative rebels who would refuse to give him confidence,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

    “I know, because I have spoken to them. There is a substantial minority of Labour MPs at the very least who simply would not countenance Jeremy Corbyn being the prime minister of this country. So the question is, is there a figure who, as an alternative, could command a majority?”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/09/no-10-cancels-staff-leave-raising-possibility-of-snap-election

    Does this also beg the question what might happen if Labour had most seats (so could govern with the SNP) post a GE?

    If Labour need the support of another party to form a government, then unless Jeremy Corbyn's approval ratings change dramatically, that other party is going to make his replacement as candidate for Prime Minister a precondition of support.
    And how is that to be achieved?

    Either you end up with the Labour party machinery and the government in two different pairs of hands; or you require the Labour party to dump someone who's just led them back to government and select someone else as leader - with that person being chosen (completely against Labour processes), not by the membership but by a different party.

    After an election, Corbyn can almost certainly play the same game as he's playing re a VoNC - back me or else the Tories / No Deal becomes the outcome.
    If he's trying to form a government after an election, he's going to have to choose between another election or reaching a basis on which his party will take power. He will come under extreme pressure for the latter if there's a stable deal available on that condition. And if he doesn't agree, he'll look utterly self-indulgent.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    edited August 2019

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Afternoon Morris,

    It's a Friday so the sun passes the yardarm earlier.

    I take it all true Scots have made the switch-

    #Carling4Tennets4indyref2

    I've been thinking of a way to include our English cousins in this campaign to stop the Scottish Groat in it's tracks. How about-

    #Bourbon4Scotch4indyref2
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    justin124 said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Devaluing currency never did Zimbabwe or Venezuela any harm.

    Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.

    Absolutely. Just look how Germany has bounced back from its Weimar days. Sure, there will be a period of painful transitions but we'll recover, just like the Germans did!
    In all seriousness though, it may "only" turn out to have a minor impact on shop stuff, and a moderate impact on overseas travel.

    Trouble is, there are millions of people with very little disposable income at the end of the month, so a small rise in living costs pretty much wipes out the ability to save.

    Still, all worth it, I'm sure.
    In all seriousness, the most sinful aspect of Labour's attitude on Brexit is that it those people, the ones Labour is supposed to protect, who will be hit first and hardest.
    Unforgivable, and it's why they're on 20% in the polls, with no sign of recovery.

    20%, after *years* of the current shit-show. They'd be on a higher number if they were led by a tailor's dummy, and I'm not sure I'm even joking.

    The cowardice of the PLP has been appalling.
    Not really true. Even with Yougov Labour has recovered to 22% compared with 18% a few weeks ago. Comres and Opinium have them on 30% and 28% respectively.
    My post would stand regardless of which of those four numbers you choose.

    Picking on the most irrelevant part of the post (the precise accuracy of the number) speaks volumes.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,058

    Scott_P said:
    Wow. How prophetic of me! Clearly many Tories were under the impression that the No Deal threat was simply a negotiating posture. (I bet that's what Boris told those Remain Tories during the leadership campaign.) I wonder what will happen as it slowly dawns that Cummings is serious about this.
    Feels like I am just watching my country fall apart in slow motion.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,146
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Interesting comments from Chuka:

    However, on Friday the Lib Dem Chuka Umunna, a former Labour MP, claimed a “substantial minority” of his former colleagues would not support Corbyn being prime minister.

    “The problem there is with the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn taking up the role of leading an emergency government is he cannot command a majority among his own MPs, never mind others like Conservative rebels who would refuse to give him confidence,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

    “I know, because I have spoken to them. There is a substantial minority of Labour MPs at the very least who simply would not countenance Jeremy Corbyn being the prime minister of this country. So the question is, is there a figure who, as an alternative, could command a majority?”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/09/no-10-cancels-staff-leave-raising-possibility-of-snap-election

    Does this also beg the question what might happen if Labour had most seats (so could govern with the SNP) post a GE?

    If Labour need the support of another party to form a government, then unless Jeremy Corbyn's approval ratings change dramatically, that other party is going to make his replacement as candidate for Prime Minister a precondition of support.
    Even the SNP?

    I'm sure the Lib Dems would 100% insist on his replacement.

    But I would have thought the SNP would allow him to be PM - especially as he would likely allow an Indy referendum - whereas a replacement like Starmer might well not.

    But coming back to Chuka's comments - are there 20, 30 or 40 Lab MPs who would suddenly finally come out of the woodwork and block him? They have gone along with him as Leader of Opposition - but might they draw the line at him becoming PM?
    The SNP thrive on chaos in Westminster. They will look for the option that is most chaotic and unstable.

    (There is the additional problem that the SNP do not normally vote on English-only matters - other than fox-hunting - so they make for an awkward partner because they only give partial support.)
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,557

    The Lib Dem surge is becoming quite something. Another 2 wins last night. The swings are unbelievable.

    What - huge local by-election swings are a regular feature of British politics not to mention actual by-election swings of mammoth proportion throughout the past 50 years at least.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,015

    MikeL said:

    Interesting comments from Chuka:

    However, on Friday the Lib Dem Chuka Umunna, a former Labour MP, claimed a “substantial minority” of his former colleagues would not support Corbyn being prime minister.

    “The problem there is with the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn taking up the role of leading an emergency government is he cannot command a majority among his own MPs, never mind others like Conservative rebels who would refuse to give him confidence,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

    “I know, because I have spoken to them. There is a substantial minority of Labour MPs at the very least who simply would not countenance Jeremy Corbyn being the prime minister of this country. So the question is, is there a figure who, as an alternative, could command a majority?”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/09/no-10-cancels-staff-leave-raising-possibility-of-snap-election

    Does this also beg the question what might happen if Labour had most seats (so could govern with the SNP) post a GE?

    If Labour need the support of another party to form a government, then unless Jeremy Corbyn's approval ratings change dramatically, that other party is going to make his replacement as candidate for Prime Minister a precondition of support.
    And how is that to be achieved?

    Either you end up with the Labour party machinery and the government in two different pairs of hands; or you require the Labour party to dump someone who's just led them back to government and select someone else as leader - with that person being chosen (completely against Labour processes), not by the membership but by a different party.

    After an election, Corbyn can almost certainly play the same game as he's playing re a VoNC - back me or else the Tories / No Deal becomes the outcome.
    If he's trying to form a government after an election, he's going to have to choose between another election or reaching a basis on which his party will take power. He will come under extreme pressure for the latter if there's a stable deal available on that condition. And if he doesn't agree, he'll look utterly self-indulgent.
    Has looking utterly self-indulgent ever bothered him before?

    He'll claim that he's just won the election, has huge support within the Party and has every right to lead.

    But even if he did resign - who do the Lib Dems, SNP and so on negotiate with then? Indeed, not only would Sturgeon and Swinson not have an opposite number to talk to but the candidates for the Labour leadership are suddenly going to have to play directly to the Corbynite membership base. This was precisely the dynamic that drove the final nail into the coffin of any possible post-2010GE Lib Dem - Lab deal.
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,557
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    nichomar said:

    Chris said:

    Andrew said:

    Sterling probably going to hit a 35-year low today.



    And that's with the betting markets still making No Deal only a 40% chance.

    Sterling has lost about 16% of its value against the dollar since the referendum.

    What do people thing will happen if we go all the way and make No Deal an accomplished fact? Parity with the dollar? One pound = 0.8 Euros?
    I’m feeling pretty sick already stop rubbing it in!
    We've been told on good authority that it won't matter a bit, because we eat food, not money. (Is that right? It was something like that.)
    No its that we earn our income in sterling and as consumers pay our bills [even for imports] in sterling. Currency fluctuations are just not that big of a deal.
    Thanks. I knew it was something like that.



    I had trouble understanding that before, but it seems much clearer now.
    Prices will increase, marginally, which we can measure as inflation.

    It is inflation that measures price changes, not sterling.
    Thank you. We're so lucky to have people here who can explain such technical matters as what inflation is.

    And also to assure us authoritatively that prices will increase only "marginally." Just so that we can profit from your prophetic abilities to the full, perhaps you could also tell us just how low sterling is going to go.
    It will, that's how it works. Show me the massive spike we got in inflation last time the pound fell please?

    Sterling has lost about 40% of its value in the last decade, but we have had consistently under control and low inflation over that decade. Because sterling is not a measure of inflation you idiot.
    Temper, temper!

    But what I asked you for wasn't another of your predictions about the past, but one about the future.

    How low are you assuming sterling will go after a No Deal Brexit, when you give us your authoritative assurance that prices will increase only "marginally"?
    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.
    What on earth does that mean?
    It means it would cost 90 US cents or 80 Eoro cents to buy a £.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 10,765
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Penddu said:

    Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.

    Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
    Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
    Oh - the UK health and social services - the vast majority of those who'd have to return are older and often in poor health. I have 'friends who became resident 2 years ago and have clogged up the Spanish health system on an almost daily basis since. They voted leave! They are typical of those who may have to return.
    I suppose they are the authors of their own misfortune, but it is sad. It was a stupid referendum
  • Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,334

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    Those rates would lead to a very substantial drop in living standards for anyone paid in sterling.
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,557
    FF43 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Penddu said:

    Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.

    Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
    Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
    Oh - the UK health and social services - the vast majority of those who'd have to return are older and often in poor health. I have 'friends who became resident 2 years ago and have clogged up the Spanish health system on an almost daily basis since. They voted leave! They are typical of those who may have to return.
    I suppose they are the authors of their own misfortune, but it is sad. It was a stupid referendum
    Those who voted to Leave - yes they are literally paying a heavy price week in and week out. Sadly so are those who had the sense to vote Remain.
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,557

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    Both are possible but unlikely to stay that bad for long. Currency fluctuations are very hard to predict.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    Those rates would lead to a very substantial drop in living standards for anyone paid in sterling.
    We've been assured that won't be the case, because Sterling or something. Exchange rates are, it seems, an irrelevance.

    Yes, I know.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    edited August 2019
    felix said:

    FF43 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Penddu said:

    Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.

    Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
    Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
    Oh - the UK health and social services - the vast majority of those who'd have to return are older and often in poor health. I have 'friends who became resident 2 years ago and have clogged up the Spanish health system on an almost daily basis since. They voted leave! They are typical of those who may have to return.
    I suppose they are the authors of their own misfortune, but it is sad. It was a stupid referendum
    Those who voted to Leave - yes they are literally paying a heavy price week in and week out. Sadly so are those who had the sense to vote Remain.
    TBF - those who voted remain can, while we're still in the EU, utilise one of those fundamental freedoms they whine so much about, and fuck off to continental Europe where they can be paid in EUR and still have their beloved Super-state.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 429

    The Lib Dem surge is becoming quite something. Another 2 wins last night. The swings are unbelievable.

    No they're not. Look at the actual figures. Quite modest upticks. The Brecon and Radnor result was also unexceptional. The LibDems did much better in the Welsh Assembly elections in 2016 than in the by-election. The devil is in the detail if you wish to understand what these results portend.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,146
    Anorak said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    Those rates would lead to a very substantial drop in living standards for anyone paid in sterling.
    We've been assured that won't be the case, because Sterling or something. Exchange rates are, it seems, an irrelevance.

    Yes, I know.
    Leavers are currently being possessed by the unquiet shade of Harold Wilson:

    "From now on, the pound abroad is worth 14 per cent or so less in terms of other currencies. That doesn't mean, of course, that the Pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued."

    In a couple of weeks, if we're lucky, they'll be blaming the gnomes of Zurich. (If we're unlucky, they'll be subscribing to anti-Semitic conspiracy theories about George Soros.)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,447
    edited August 2019

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    So when you wrote "90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro," you meant to write "90 US cents to the pound, 80 Euro cents to the pound"?

    In other words, you think the pound is going to lose 25% of its value over the next few months. (For what it's worth, that's what the calculation based on the fall since the referendum and the 40% implied probability of No Deal would imply too.)

    But that means, other things being equal, the cost of any goods or services purchased from other countries will rise by 33%.

    However, you insist that there's only going to be a "marginal" rise in prices. So how is that going to work in practice? Are foreign sellers going to give us a 25% reduction? Or are retailers going to carry on buying at the same price and selling at the same price, and somehow absorb the huge hit from the change in the exchange rate?

    Or am I stupid to ask, in the new spirit of "post-truth" politics and fake news?

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,334
    Anorak said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    Those rates would lead to a very substantial drop in living standards for anyone paid in sterling.
    We've been assured that won't be the case, because Sterling or something. Exchange rates are, it seems, an irrelevance.

    Yes, I know.
    A further 25% fall in the £/$ rate would push up UK inflation to levels not seen since the early 1990s - it would depend a bit on how fast the rate fell but if it was quick - as it probably would be in the event of no deal - then I think we could be looking at 5% within a year.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    Those rates would lead to a very substantial drop in living standards for anyone paid in sterling.
    We've been assured that won't be the case, because Sterling or something. Exchange rates are, it seems, an irrelevance.

    Yes, I know.
    Leavers are currently being possessed by the unquiet shade of Harold Wilson:

    "From now on, the pound abroad is worth 14 per cent or so less in terms of other currencies. That doesn't mean, of course, that the Pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued."

    In a couple of weeks, if we're lucky, they'll be blaming the gnomes of Zurich. (If we're unlucky, they'll be subscribing to anti-Semitic conspiracy theories about George Soros.)
    Still, by Christmas you can sell your pad in Hungary and buy half of Shropshire.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited August 2019

    Anorak said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    Those rates would lead to a very substantial drop in living standards for anyone paid in sterling.
    We've been assured that won't be the case, because Sterling or something. Exchange rates are, it seems, an irrelevance.

    Yes, I know.
    A further 25% fall in the £/$ rate would push up UK inflation to levels not seen since the early 1990s - it would depend a bit on how fast the rate fell but if it was quick - as it probably would be in the event of no deal - then I think we could be looking at 5% within a year.
    The shit will really hit the fan when interest rates are pushed up to stabilise the currency, and the double-whammy of higher living costs and higher mortgage payments leads to a housing market paralysis, repossessions and negative equity.

    Early 90s all over again.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,338
    Scott_P said:
    unionists taking a pounding , they don't know their arses from their elbows. We had the Davidson/Mundell bootings from HQ and now Labour have kicked their lot into touch. When will Swinson knife Rennie and put him out of his misery for a clean sweep.
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    So when you wrote "90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro," you meant to write "90 US cents to the pound, 80 Euro cents to the pound"?

    In other words, you think the pound is going to lose 25% of its value over the next few months. (For what it's worth, that's what the calculation based on the fall since the referendum and the 40% implied probability of No Deal would imply too.)

    But that means, other things being equal, the cost of any goods or services purchased from other countries will rise by 33%.

    However, you insist that there's only going to be a "marginal" rise in prices. So how is that going to work in practice? Are foreign sellers going to give us a 25% reduction? Or are retailers going to carry on buying at the same price and selling at the same price, and somehow absorb the huge hit from the change in the exchange rate?

    Or am I stupid to ask, in the new spirit of "post-truth" politics and fake news?

    Lol! Give it up, Chris. You are dealing with Thompsononomics here, a specialism practiced and understood by only one individual on Earth. :)
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    So when you wrote "90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro," you meant to write "90 US cents to the pound, 80 Euro cents to the pound"?

    In other words, you think the pound is going to lose 25% of its value over the next few months. (For what it's worth, that's what the calculation based on the fall since the referendum and the 40% implied probability of No Deal would imply too.)

    But that means, other things being equal, the cost of any goods or services purchased from other countries will rise by 33%.

    However, you insist that there's only going to be a "marginal" rise in prices. So how is that going to work in practice? Are foreign sellers going to give us a 25% reduction? Or are retailers going to carry on buying at the same price and selling at the same price, and somehow absorb the huge hit from the change in the exchange rate?

    Or am I stupid to ask, in the new spirit of "post-truth" politics and fake news?

    Highlighted part: No it will not!

    The cost of imports is a fraction of the price consumers pay. If all a retailer charged you was COGS then every retailer in the world will be out of business.

    PS 40% was referencing the fact that a decade prior to the referendum sterling was trading at £1 ~ $2 and it fell to £1 ~ $1.20 . . . that is ~ a 40% fall.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,338

    tlg86 said:

    nichomar said:

    First game of the premier league season tonight - and Liverpool are 1.16 - not much fun to be had there

    have you considered the PB Fantasy league instead?
    Yes I have considered - but I'm crap at remembering players names and such-like so I'd be rubbish. I do enjoy watching the games though. Hopefully once we're out of the EU there'll be no BT/Sky splitting (There's a benefit of leaving the EU for you lot!!!!)
    Why do you think that?
    The PL split between BT/Sky was initiated by EU anti-monopoly laws
    And the split has helped produce far greater revenue for the PL. The requirement for more than one broadcaster to win live rights is not going to change post-Brexit.
    A boost for the PL for sure. A blow for consumers where they have to pay double to watch all the matches. I think Bozo and Gove should look into this now that we're close to leaving.
    Its crap , you get the odd good game but most of them would bore the pants off you. Waste of money.
  • felix said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    Both are possible but unlikely to stay that bad for long. Currency fluctuations are very hard to predict.
    Indeed I don't expect it to be our new normal or like that forever, but I was asked how low it will go and I think that will be the trough as to how low it goes.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,146
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    Those rates would lead to a very substantial drop in living standards for anyone paid in sterling.
    We've been assured that won't be the case, because Sterling or something. Exchange rates are, it seems, an irrelevance.

    Yes, I know.
    Leavers are currently being possessed by the unquiet shade of Harold Wilson:

    "From now on, the pound abroad is worth 14 per cent or so less in terms of other currencies. That doesn't mean, of course, that the Pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued."

    In a couple of weeks, if we're lucky, they'll be blaming the gnomes of Zurich. (If we're unlucky, they'll be subscribing to anti-Semitic conspiracy theories about George Soros.)
    Still, by Christmas you can sell your pad in Hungary and buy half of Shropshire.
    I've managed to choose the one country in Europe whose currency currently languishes almost as much as sterling. I mentally budget on 350 HUF to the pound as my baseline and it's currently more or less dead on that.
  • malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    nichomar said:

    First game of the premier league season tonight - and Liverpool are 1.16 - not much fun to be had there

    have you considered the PB Fantasy league instead?
    Yes I have considered - but I'm crap at remembering players names and such-like so I'd be rubbish. I do enjoy watching the games though. Hopefully once we're out of the EU there'll be no BT/Sky splitting (There's a benefit of leaving the EU for you lot!!!!)
    Why do you think that?
    The PL split between BT/Sky was initiated by EU anti-monopoly laws
    And the split has helped produce far greater revenue for the PL. The requirement for more than one broadcaster to win live rights is not going to change post-Brexit.
    A boost for the PL for sure. A blow for consumers where they have to pay double to watch all the matches. I think Bozo and Gove should look into this now that we're close to leaving.
    Its crap , you get the odd good game but most of them would bore the pants off you. Waste of money.
    I just started Sky Sports this year (that's what PIPs are for, right?) for the F1. I wouldn't call it crap
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,557

    felix said:

    FF43 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Penddu said:

    Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.

    Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
    Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
    Oh - the UK health and social services - the vast majority of those who'd have to return are older and often in poor health. I have 'friends who became resident 2 years ago and have clogged up the Spanish health system on an almost daily basis since. They voted leave! They are typical of those who may have to return.
    I suppose they are the authors of their own misfortune, but it is sad. It was a stupid referendum
    Those who voted to Leave - yes they are literally paying a heavy price week in and week out. Sadly so are those who had the sense to vote Remain.
    TBF - those who voted remain can, while we're still in the EU, utilise one of those fundamental freedoms they whine so much about, and fuck off to continental Europe where they can be paid in EUR and still have their beloved Super-state.
    You ok hun?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,447


    PS 40% was referencing the fact that a decade prior to the referendum sterling was trading at £1 ~ $2 and it fell to £1 ~ $1.20 . . . that is ~ a 40% fall.

    OK. That's just an outright lie.

    This is what you wrote: "Sterling has lost about 40% of its value in the last decade"

    Obviously "the last decade" doesn't mean the period since 2006.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,338

    People complacently bragging/sulking about being paid in USD/EUR.

    Just think of poor Scots who are going to be paid in Scottish Groats in a few years time if Nicola and her cohorts get their way.

    Briskin , they will be worth 2-3 pounds a whup so we will not know what to do with our lolly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,221

    The Lib Dem surge is becoming quite something. Another 2 wins last night. The swings are unbelievable.

    No they're not. Look at the actual figures. Quite modest upticks. The Brecon and Radnor result was also unexceptional. The LibDems did much better in the Welsh Assembly elections in 2016 than in the by-election. The devil is in the detail if you wish to understand what these results portend.
    The Newnham result was pretty exceptional, given that the LibDems already held the ward. Although with the students on holiday the swing may have been exaggerated. The change in the vote shares between Tory and LibDem in Worcester were less remarkable; what was remarkable was the near disappearance of the Labour vote. In Northants there was a swing to Labour, although the Tory council is a basket case.
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    FF43 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Penddu said:

    Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.

    Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
    Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
    Oh - the UK health and social services - the vast majority of those who'd have to return are older and often in poor health. I have 'friends who became resident 2 years ago and have clogged up the Spanish health system on an almost daily basis since. They voted leave! They are typical of those who may have to return.
    I suppose they are the authors of their own misfortune, but it is sad. It was a stupid referendum
    Those who voted to Leave - yes they are literally paying a heavy price week in and week out. Sadly so are those who had the sense to vote Remain.
    TBF - those who voted remain can, while we're still in the EU, utilise one of those fundamental freedoms they whine so much about, and fuck off to continental Europe where they can be paid in EUR and still have their beloved Super-state.
    You ok hun?
    I'm fine - I'm just suggesting that perhaps the Remainacs should put their convictions where their mouths are and fuck off to continental Europe while there's a coulple of months left.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    Those rates would lead to a very substantial drop in living standards for anyone paid in sterling.
    We've been assured that won't be the case, because Sterling or something. Exchange rates are, it seems, an irrelevance.

    Yes, I know.
    Leavers are currently being possessed by the unquiet shade of Harold Wilson:

    "From now on, the pound abroad is worth 14 per cent or so less in terms of other currencies. That doesn't mean, of course, that the Pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued."

    In a couple of weeks, if we're lucky, they'll be blaming the gnomes of Zurich. (If we're unlucky, they'll be subscribing to anti-Semitic conspiracy theories about George Soros.)
    Still, by Christmas you can sell your pad in Hungary and buy half of Shropshire.
    I've managed to choose the one country in Europe whose currency currently languishes almost as much as sterling. I mentally budget on 350 HUF to the pound as my baseline and it's currently more or less dead on that.
    Ah. Unlucky. Still, at least you can compare and contrast the rise of antisemitism in both locations. Which is nice.
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,557
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    Those rates would lead to a very substantial drop in living standards for anyone paid in sterling.
    We've been assured that won't be the case, because Sterling or something. Exchange rates are, it seems, an irrelevance.

    Yes, I know.
    A further 25% fall in the £/$ rate would push up UK inflation to levels not seen since the early 1990s - it would depend a bit on how fast the rate fell but if it was quick - as it probably would be in the event of no deal - then I think we could be looking at 5% within a year.
    The shit will really hit the fan when interest rates are pushed up to stabilise the currency, and the double-whammy of higher living costs and higher mortgage payments leads to a housing market paralysis, repossessions and negative equity.

    Early 90s all over again.
    Carney is rather cleverer in these matters than the people of the 90s.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    felix said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    Those rates would lead to a very substantial drop in living standards for anyone paid in sterling.
    We've been assured that won't be the case, because Sterling or something. Exchange rates are, it seems, an irrelevance.

    Yes, I know.
    A further 25% fall in the £/$ rate would push up UK inflation to levels not seen since the early 1990s - it would depend a bit on how fast the rate fell but if it was quick - as it probably would be in the event of no deal - then I think we could be looking at 5% within a year.
    The shit will really hit the fan when interest rates are pushed up to stabilise the currency, and the double-whammy of higher living costs and higher mortgage payments leads to a housing market paralysis, repossessions and negative equity.

    Early 90s all over again.
    Carney is rather cleverer in these matters than the people of the 90s.
    The moment you start to lift interest rates to try and protect the currency you have lost...the markets will force more and more..wont happen
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    edited August 2019
    malcolmg said:

    People complacently bragging/sulking about being paid in USD/EUR.

    Just think of poor Scots who are going to be paid in Scottish Groats in a few years time if Nicola and her cohorts get their way.

    Briskin , they will be worth 2-3 pounds a whup so we will not know what to do with our lolly.
    Lol it'll probably be pegged to the GBP or something equally stupid 1 GBP = 10 SBP
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,557
    edited August 2019

    felix said:

    felix said:

    FF43 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Penddu said:

    Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.

    Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
    Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
    Oh - the UK health and social services - the vast majority of those who'd have to return are older and often in poor health. I have 'friends who became resident 2 years ago and have clogged up the Spanish health system on an almost daily basis since. They voted leave! They are typical of those who may have to return.
    I suppose they are the authors of their own misfortune, but it is sad. It was a stupid referendum
    Those who voted to Leave - yes they are literally paying a heavy price week in and week out. Sadly so are those who had the sense to vote Remain.
    TBF - those who voted remain can, while we're still in the EU, utilise one of those fundamental freedoms they whine so much about, and fuck off to continental Europe where they can be paid in EUR and still have their beloved Super-state.
    You ok hun?
    I'm fine - I'm just suggesting that perhaps the Remainacs should put their convictions where their mouths are and fuck off to continental Europe while there's a coulple of months left.
    So your intemperate language about your fellow citizens is just down to your being as we say over here 'maleducado'. Heigh ho.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    The most pessimistic forecast I've seen was a Deutsche Bank one at 1gbp = 0.95eur and 1.15usd. If we take 1.6usd as the pre-2015 average (yes I know you don't like that figure but run with me for a moment) then a drop to 0.8eur and 0.9usd is a drop of over 40% in under four years. That's bigger than the post-ww2 drop, the 1967 devaluation, the 1970s oil shock, the 1990s ERM fall out, or the Brexit night fall. It would be unpleasant.

    I know we argue a lot (and will do so again) but I do have to ask: is that prediction based on anything such as a bank report or investigation? It's a contingency I simply haven't considered and I would have to sit down and seriously think how to mitigate it, so I do need to ask.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,447

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    So when you wrote "90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro," you meant to write "90 US cents to the pound, 80 Euro cents to the pound"?

    In other words, you think the pound is going to lose 25% of its value over the next few months. (For what it's worth, that's what the calculation based on the fall since the referendum and the 40% implied probability of No Deal would imply too.)

    But that means, other things being equal, the cost of any goods or services purchased from other countries will rise by 33%.

    However, you insist that there's only going to be a "marginal" rise in prices. So how is that going to work in practice? Are foreign sellers going to give us a 25% reduction? Or are retailers going to carry on buying at the same price and selling at the same price, and somehow absorb the huge hit from the change in the exchange rate?

    Or am I stupid to ask, in the new spirit of "post-truth" politics and fake news?

    Highlighted part: No it will not!

    The cost of imports is a fraction of the price consumers pay. If all a retailer charged you was COGS then every retailer in the world will be out of business.
    And now, sadly, we're running into your basic inability to understand English again. Though I suspect, like the deafness of Basil Fawlty's maddening Brexiteerish guest, that comes and goes according to convenience.

    Please read again what I wrote:
    "But that means, other things being equal, the cost of any goods or services purchased from other countries will rise by 33%."

    Please concentrate really hard, particularly on the phrases "other things being equal" and "purchased from other countries" (hint: that means not purchased from a retailer in the UK). Got it now?

    But anyway, your answer to the question seems to be that retailers, or other businesses in the supply chain, will effectively absorb that extra 33% which has to be paid for goods and services from abroad, rather than passing it on to the consumer - or will pass on only a "marginal" part of the extra cost. So, magically, there will be no inflationary consequence of a 25% drop in sterling. Is that what you are saying?
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    FF43 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Penddu said:

    Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.

    Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
    Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
    Oh - the UK health and social services - the vast majority of those who'd have to return are older and often in poor health. I have 'friends who became resident 2 years ago and have clogged up the Spanish health system on an almost daily basis since. They voted leave! They are typical of those who may have to return.
    I suppose they are the authors of their own misfortune, but it is sad. It was a stupid referendum
    Those who voted to Leave - yes they are literally paying a heavy price week in and week out. Sadly so are those who had the sense to vote Remain.
    TBF - those who voted remain can, while we're still in the EU, utilise one of those fundamental freedoms they whine so much about, and fuck off to continental Europe where they can be paid in EUR and still have their beloved Super-state.
    You ok hun?
    I'm fine - I'm just suggesting that perhaps the Remainacs should put their convictions where their mouths are and fuck off to continental Europe while there's a coulple of months left.
    So your intemperate language about your fellow citizens is just down to your being as we say over here 'maleducado'. Heigh ho.
    Sun crosses the yardarm earlier on a Friday - and this place is over flowing with Diehard Remainers - Deal with it.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,605

    malcolmg said:

    People complacently bragging/sulking about being paid in USD/EUR.

    Just think of poor Scots who are going to be paid in Scottish Groats in a few years time if Nicola and her cohorts get their way.

    Briskin , they will be worth 2-3 pounds a whup so we will not know what to do with our lolly.
    Lol it'll probably be pegged to the GBP or something equally stupid 1 GBP = 10 SBP
    The Pound Scots was replaced by Sterling at the rate of 12:1 after the Union.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,334

    felix said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    Both are possible but unlikely to stay that bad for long. Currency fluctuations are very hard to predict.
    Indeed I don't expect it to be our new normal or like that forever, but I was asked how low it will go and I think that will be the trough as to how low it goes.
    It's not easy to see why the £ should rise again though - after no deal foreign capital inflows would pretty much dry up until the UK's future relationship with the EU was clear and the same would go for export orders. Though I suppose imports would fall as well since we would no longer be able to afford to buy them. I'm not sure that these factors are entirely positive either politically or economically.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    timmo said:

    felix said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    Those rates would lead to a very substantial drop in living standards for anyone paid in sterling.
    We've been assured that won't be the case, because Sterling or something. Exchange rates are, it seems, an irrelevance.

    Yes, I know.
    A further 25% fall in the £/$ rate would push up UK inflation to levels not seen since the early 1990s - it would depend a bit on how fast the rate fell but if it was quick - as it probably would be in the event of no deal - then I think we could be looking at 5% within a year.
    The shit will really hit the fan when interest rates are pushed up to stabilise the currency, and the double-whammy of higher living costs and higher mortgage payments leads to a housing market paralysis, repossessions and negative equity.

    Early 90s all over again.
    Carney is rather cleverer in these matters than the people of the 90s.
    The moment you start to lift interest rates to try and protect the currency you have lost...the markets will force more and more..wont happen
    I'm going to keep those tweets just in case I can shout "I told you so" just as the bailiffs arrive.
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,557
    viewcode said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    The most pessimistic forecast I've seen was a Deutsche Bank one at 1gbp = 0.95eur and 1.15usd. If we take 1.6usd as the pre-2015 average (yes I know you don't like that figure but run with me for a moment) then a drop to 0.8eur and 0.9usd is a drop of over 40% in under four years. That's bigger than the post-ww2 drop, the 1967 devaluation, the 1970s oil shock, the 1990s ERM fall out, or the Brexit night fall. It would be unpleasant.

    I know we argue a lot (and will do so again) but I do have to ask: is that prediction based on anything such as a bank report or investigation? It's a contingency I simply haven't considered and I would have to sit down and seriously think how to mitigate it, so I do need to ask.
    There are so many variables that can cause currency fluctuation that investigations, reports, etc are often pretty meaningless.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,338

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Afternoon Morris,

    It's a Friday so the sun passes the yardarm earlier.

    I take it all true Scots have made the switch-

    #Carling4Tennets4indyref2

    I've been thinking of a way to include our English cousins in this campaign to stop the Scottish Groat in it's tracks. How about-

    #Bourbon4Scotch4indyref2
    Briskin, Carling is pissy water, but I do enjoy a nice Bourbon , drinking a nice Woodford Reserve at present, very nice and worth the £35 a bottle. As good as a nice malt.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,058
    Trump doesn't think deranged people should have access to guns, yet the american people put him in charge of their vast nuclear arsenal.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 32,697

    felix said:

    felix said:

    FF43 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Penddu said:

    Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.

    Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
    Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
    Oh - the UK health and social services - the vast majority of those who'd have to return are older and often in poor health. I have 'friends who became resident 2 years ago and have clogged up the Spanish health system on an almost daily basis since. They voted leave! They are typical of those who may have to return.
    I suppose they are the authors of their own misfortune, but it is sad. It was a stupid referendum
    Those who voted to Leave - yes they are literally paying a heavy price week in and week out. Sadly so are those who had the sense to vote Remain.
    TBF - those who voted remain can, while we're still in the EU, utilise one of those fundamental freedoms they whine so much about, and fuck off to continental Europe where they can be paid in EUR and still have their beloved Super-state.
    You ok hun?
    I'm fine - I'm just suggesting that perhaps the Remainacs should put their convictions where their mouths are and fuck off to continental Europe while there's a coulple of months left.
    The typical Brexiteer mindset of thinking "Europe" is somewhere on the other side of the Channel. An independent Scotland in the EU will rid us of such illusions.
  • malcolmg said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Afternoon Morris,

    It's a Friday so the sun passes the yardarm earlier.

    I take it all true Scots have made the switch-

    #Carling4Tennets4indyref2

    I've been thinking of a way to include our English cousins in this campaign to stop the Scottish Groat in it's tracks. How about-

    #Bourbon4Scotch4indyref2
    Briskin, Carling is pissy water, but I do enjoy a nice Bourbon , drinking a nice Woodford Reserve at present, very nice and worth the £35 a bottle. As good as a nice malt.
    Yes well it's the sassenachs I've got to convince - not you!!!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,983
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    As a matter of fact sterling has lost only about 27% of its value against the dollar in the last decade (and only about 12% of its value since its low point at January 2019 - about the same as the amount it's lost since April 2018).

    The CPI has risen by about 24% over the last decade.

    It's probably best to check the "facts" coming from the extreme Brexit lot.

    You do realise CPI is supposed to rise over a decade?

    Target CPI is 2% per annum. That compounded is 22% over a decade.

    CPI has risen by a compound average of about 2.1% per annum over the past decade.

    So your numbers show Sterling has fallen 27% over a decade and during the decade the average is to be 0.1% away from target. Not 0.1% more than the 3% letter threshold the average is to be 0.1% off target!
    First, can you correct your bizarre misstatement about sterling having lost 40% of its value over a decade?

    That was completely untrue. Sorry, but you can't just dance on to the next round of misinformation and diversionary nonsense.
    And after that, please tell us what on earth you meant by "90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro." Who knows, perhaps with sufficient instruction we'll become fluent enough in Brexit-gibberish to make some sense of your comments!
    He means that the exchange rates would be something like:

    £1 = $0.90
    £1 = €0.80

    If true, that would almost certainly mean the UK economy dropped below Italy and Brazil in size. It would also mean that the pound had lost 55% of its value against the dollar since 2007/8 when it bought a little more than $2.

    It is worth noting that there is little* empirical evidence that currency depreciations boost export volumes meaningfully, because we live in a connected world, where (for example) the cost of manufacturing is deteremined more by the price of imports of steel, energy and other components, and less on indigenous labour.

    * Shockingly little
  • malcolmg said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Afternoon Morris,

    It's a Friday so the sun passes the yardarm earlier.

    I take it all true Scots have made the switch-

    #Carling4Tennets4indyref2

    I've been thinking of a way to include our English cousins in this campaign to stop the Scottish Groat in it's tracks. How about-

    #Bourbon4Scotch4indyref2
    Briskin, Carling is pissy water, but I do enjoy a nice Bourbon , drinking a nice Woodford Reserve at present, very nice and worth the £35 a bottle. As good as a nice malt.
    They've had your pants down, Malc! Woodford is nice, but I only buy it when the supermarket knocks it out for 20 quid.
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    FF43 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Penddu said:

    Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.

    Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
    Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
    Oh - the UK health and social services - the vast majority of those who'd have to return are older and often in poor health. I have 'friends who became resident 2 years ago and have clogged up the Spanish health system on an almost daily basis since. They voted leave! They are typical of those who may have to return.
    I suppose they are the authors of their own misfortune, but it is sad. It was a stupid referendum
    Those who voted to Leave - yes they are literally paying a heavy price week in and week out. Sadly so are those who had the sense to vote Remain.
    TBF - those who voted remain can, while we're still in the EU, utilise one of those fundamental freedoms they whine so much about, and fuck off to continental Europe where they can be paid in EUR and still have their beloved Super-state.
    You ok hun?
    I'm fine - I'm just suggesting that perhaps the Remainacs should put their convictions where their mouths are and fuck off to continental Europe while there's a coulple of months left.
    The typical Brexiteer mindset of thinking "Europe" is somewhere on the other side of the Channel. An independent Scotland in the EU will rid us of such illusions.
    Lol - I'm sure you'll end up just loving the next South Sudan on your doorstep
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,983
    viewcode said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    The most pessimistic forecast I've seen was a Deutsche Bank one at 1gbp = 0.95eur and 1.15usd. If we take 1.6usd as the pre-2015 average (yes I know you don't like that figure but run with me for a moment) then a drop to 0.8eur and 0.9usd is a drop of over 40% in under four years. That's bigger than the post-ww2 drop, the 1967 devaluation, the 1970s oil shock, the 1990s ERM fall out, or the Brexit night fall. It would be unpleasant.

    I know we argue a lot (and will do so again) but I do have to ask: is that prediction based on anything such as a bank report or investigation? It's a contingency I simply haven't considered and I would have to sit down and seriously think how to mitigate it, so I do need to ask.
    £1 = $1.6 is almost exactly spot on for the 25 year average, and it's remarkable how little time (pre 2016) the pound spent outside a fairly narrow range of that number.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,447
    viewcode said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    The most pessimistic forecast I've seen was a Deutsche Bank one at 1gbp = 0.95eur and 1.15usd. If we take 1.6usd as the pre-2015 average (yes I know you don't like that figure but run with me for a moment) then a drop to 0.8eur and 0.9usd is a drop of over 40% in under four years. That's bigger than the post-ww2 drop, the 1967 devaluation, the 1970s oil shock, the 1990s ERM fall out, or the Brexit night fall. It would be unpleasant.

    I know we argue a lot (and will do so again) but I do have to ask: is that prediction based on anything such as a bank report or investigation? It's a contingency I simply haven't considered and I would have to sit down and seriously think how to mitigate it, so I do need to ask.
    It is roughly what a simple calculation based on the fall in sterling since the referendum and a 40% implied probability of No Deal would indicate.

    Let's hope that the currency markets have already priced in a larger probability than Betfair punters are reckoning on. (Or that, in Brexiteer style, most of the loss since the referendum "would have happened anyway".)
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,910
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    So when you wrote "90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro," you meant to write "90 US cents to the pound, 80 Euro cents to the pound"?

    In other words, you think the pound is going to lose 25% of its value over the next few months. (For what it's worth, that's what the calculation based on the fall since the referendum and the 40% implied probability of No Deal would imply too.)

    But that means, other things being equal, the cost of any goods or services purchased from other countries will rise by 33%.

    However, you insist that there's only going to be a "marginal" rise in prices. So how is that going to work in practice? Are foreign sellers going to give us a 25% reduction? Or are retailers going to carry on buying at the same price and selling at the same price, and somehow absorb the huge hit from the change in the exchange rate?

    Or am I stupid to ask, in the new spirit of "post-truth" politics and fake news?

    Highlighted part: No it will not!

    The cost of imports is a fraction of the price consumers pay. If all a retailer charged you was COGS then every retailer in the world will be out of business.
    And now, sadly, we're running into your basic inability to understand English again. Though I suspect, like the deafness of Basil Fawlty's maddening Brexiteerish guest, that comes and goes according to convenience.

    Please read again what I wrote:
    "But that means, other things being equal, the cost of any goods or services purchased from other countries will rise by 33%."

    Please concentrate really hard, particularly on the phrases "other things being equal" and "purchased from other countries" (hint: that means not purchased from a retailer in the UK). Got it now?

    But anyway, your answer to the question seems to be that retailers, or other businesses in the supply chain, will effectively absorb that extra 33% which has to be paid for goods and services from abroad, rather than passing it on to the consumer - or will pass on only a "marginal" part of the extra cost. So, magically, there will be no inflationary consequence of a 25% drop in sterling. Is that what you are saying?
    I think what he's saying is that if a retailer pays 30p for a product then sells it for £1.20, it will go up by 10p, not 40p.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,081
    New thread
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    felix said:

    viewcode said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    The most pessimistic forecast I've seen was a Deutsche Bank one at 1gbp = 0.95eur and 1.15usd. If we take 1.6usd as the pre-2015 average (yes I know you don't like that figure but run with me for a moment) then a drop to 0.8eur and 0.9usd is a drop of over 40% in under four years. That's bigger than the post-ww2 drop, the 1967 devaluation, the 1970s oil shock, the 1990s ERM fall out, or the Brexit night fall. It would be unpleasant.

    I know we argue a lot (and will do so again) but I do have to ask: is that prediction based on anything such as a bank report or investigation? It's a contingency I simply haven't considered and I would have to sit down and seriously think how to mitigate it, so I do need to ask.
    There are so many variables that can cause currency fluctuation that investigations, reports, etc are often pretty meaningless.
    Oddly, I do know that. .. :)

    But I need some kind of set of realistic outcomes to do planning. @Philip_Thompson 's pred is way outside that set so I need to know how much weight to place on it. If it's even slightly possible I need to act accordingly.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,338

    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    nichomar said:

    First game of the premier league season tonight - and Liverpool are 1.16 - not much fun to be had there

    have you considered the PB Fantasy league instead?
    Yes I have considered - but I'm crap at remembering players names and such-like so I'd be rubbish. I do enjoy watching the games though. Hopefully once we're out of the EU there'll be no BT/Sky splitting (There's a benefit of leaving the EU for you lot!!!!)
    Why do you think that?
    The PL split between BT/Sky was initiated by EU anti-monopoly laws
    And the split has helped produce far greater revenue for the PL. The requirement for more than one broadcaster to win live rights is not going to change post-Brexit.
    A boost for the PL for sure. A blow for consumers where they have to pay double to watch all the matches. I think Bozo and Gove should look into this now that we're close to leaving.
    Its crap , you get the odd good game but most of them would bore the pants off you. Waste of money.
    I just started Sky Sports this year (that's what PIPs are for, right?) for the F1. I wouldn't call it crap
    Worth it if you watch a lot. I don't like F1 much and ambivalent to English football so not worth my time. Prefer going to the football when I have the time/chance.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 429
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:
    unionists taking a pounding , they don't know their arses from their elbows. We had the Davidson/Mundell bootings from HQ and now Labour have kicked their lot into touch. When will Swinson knife Rennie and put him out of his misery for a clean sweep.
    LOL. You're right.
    Problem is that Wee Nippy usually wears an expression like that of a slapped a**e and we have the trial of Alex "I'm no angel" Salmond to look forward to.
    Not a great platform for a second push, I wouldn't have thought.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,338
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    Those rates would lead to a very substantial drop in living standards for anyone paid in sterling.
    We've been assured that won't be the case, because Sterling or something. Exchange rates are, it seems, an irrelevance.

    Yes, I know.
    A further 25% fall in the £/$ rate would push up UK inflation to levels not seen since the early 1990s - it would depend a bit on how fast the rate fell but if it was quick - as it probably would be in the event of no deal - then I think we could be looking at 5% within a year.
    The shit will really hit the fan when interest rates are pushed up to stabilise the currency, and the double-whammy of higher living costs and higher mortgage payments leads to a housing market paralysis, repossessions and negative equity.

    Early 90s all over again.
    I fixed both my mortgages recently , one for 10 years and one for 5 years.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    malcolmg said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    Those rates would lead to a very substantial drop in living standards for anyone paid in sterling.
    We've been assured that won't be the case, because Sterling or something. Exchange rates are, it seems, an irrelevance.

    Yes, I know.
    A further 25% fall in the £/$ rate would push up UK inflation to levels not seen since the early 1990s - it would depend a bit on how fast the rate fell but if it was quick - as it probably would be in the event of no deal - then I think we could be looking at 5% within a year.
    The shit will really hit the fan when interest rates are pushed up to stabilise the currency, and the double-whammy of higher living costs and higher mortgage payments leads to a housing market paralysis, repossessions and negative equity.

    Early 90s all over again.
    I fixed both my mortgages recently , one for 10 years and one for 5 years.
    Smug. And smart!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,547

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:
    unionists taking a pounding , they don't know their arses from their elbows. We had the Davidson/Mundell bootings from HQ and now Labour have kicked their lot into touch. When will Swinson knife Rennie and put him out of his misery for a clean sweep.
    LOL. You're right.
    Problem is that Wee Nippy usually wears an expression like that of a slapped a**e and we have the trial of Alex "I'm no angel" Salmond to look forward to.
    Not a great platform for a second push, I wouldn't have thought.
    If she has to meet with the likes of Johnson, no wonder she's 'not happy'!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,447
    edited August 2019

    Chris said:

    Chris said:



    So when you wrote "90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro," you meant to write "90 US cents to the pound, 80 Euro cents to the pound"?

    In other words, you think the pound is going to lose 25% of its value over the next few months. (For what it's worth, that's what the calculation based on the fall since the referendum and the 40% implied probability of No Deal would imply too.)

    But that means, other things being equal, the cost of any goods or services purchased from other countries will rise by 33%.

    However, you insist that there's only going to be a "marginal" rise in prices. So how is that going to work in practice? Are foreign sellers going to give us a 25% reduction? Or are retailers going to carry on buying at the same price and selling at the same price, and somehow absorb the huge hit from the change in the exchange rate?

    Or am I stupid to ask, in the new spirit of "post-truth" politics and fake news?

    Highlighted part: No it will not!

    The cost of imports is a fraction of the price consumers pay. If all a retailer charged you was COGS then every retailer in the world will be out of business.
    And now, sadly, we're running into your basic inability to understand English again. Though I suspect, like the deafness of Basil Fawlty's maddening Brexiteerish guest, that comes and goes according to convenience.

    Please read again what I wrote:
    "But that means, other things being equal, the cost of any goods or services purchased from other countries will rise by 33%."

    Please concentrate really hard, particularly on the phrases "other things being equal" and "purchased from other countries" (hint: that means not purchased from a retailer in the UK). Got it now?

    But anyway, your answer to the question seems to be that retailers, or other businesses in the supply chain, will effectively absorb that extra 33% which has to be paid for goods and services from abroad, rather than passing it on to the consumer - or will pass on only a "marginal" part of the extra cost. So, magically, there will be no inflationary consequence of a 25% drop in sterling. Is that what you are saying?
    I think what he's saying is that if a retailer pays 30p for a product then sells it for £1.20, it will go up by 10p, not 40p.
    You think he's saying the whole of the increased costs will be passed on to the consumer?

    I can see that that might not have a devastating effect in the case of a retailer whose profit margin is 75% (how many businesses like that are there?).

    But to go back to food - the profit margins of supermarkets are apparently typically 1-2%. How could they do other than pass on nearly all the increased cost to the consumer, and how could that be anything but hugely inflationary?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,338

    malcolmg said:

    People complacently bragging/sulking about being paid in USD/EUR.

    Just think of poor Scots who are going to be paid in Scottish Groats in a few years time if Nicola and her cohorts get their way.

    Briskin , they will be worth 2-3 pounds a whup so we will not know what to do with our lolly.
    Lol it'll probably be pegged to the GBP or something equally stupid 1 GBP = 10 SBP
    Good if you get paid / have your money in GBP. I would be a multi-millionaire.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,338
    Anorak said:

    malcolmg said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    Those rates would lead to a very substantial drop in living standards for anyone paid in sterling.
    We've been assured that won't be the case, because Sterling or something. Exchange rates are, it seems, an irrelevance.

    Yes, I know.
    A further 25% fall in the £/$ rate would push up UK inflation to levels not seen since the early 1990s - it would depend a bit on how fast the rate fell but if it was quick - as it probably would be in the event of no deal - then I think we could be looking at 5% within a year.
    The shit will really hit the fan when interest rates are pushed up to stabilise the currency, and the double-whammy of higher living costs and higher mortgage payments leads to a housing market paralysis, repossessions and negative equity.

    Early 90s all over again.
    I fixed both my mortgages recently , one for 10 years and one for 5 years.
    Smug. And smart!
    Not trying to be smug but was hoping it was smart. Might even be worth taking 20K -25K loan at 2.9% APR and gamble interest rates will rise.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,338

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:
    unionists taking a pounding , they don't know their arses from their elbows. We had the Davidson/Mundell bootings from HQ and now Labour have kicked their lot into touch. When will Swinson knife Rennie and put him out of his misery for a clean sweep.
    LOL. You're right.
    Problem is that Wee Nippy usually wears an expression like that of a slapped a**e and we have the trial of Alex "I'm no angel" Salmond to look forward to.
    Not a great platform for a second push, I wouldn't have thought.
    Sher does frown a bit Iwill agree, not so sure Alex will figure too much in it and will be interesting to see if that ever reaches court. Unionists beggaring the country and giving us two fingers regularly will be enough. Direction is upwards.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,772
    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    Penddu said:

    Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.

    Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
    Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
    He means those living in the UK as penniless ex immigrants return from EU countries. Many of whom are of retirement age with medical conditions and will strain the NHS and who won’t have any capital to buy property because the housing market herme may collapse because too many properties go on the market at the same time. Like Felix I have a good cushion but many who came out on just the state pension when it was 1.5 will be struggling now.
    Well, we'll be out of the EU and free to make our own laws then. We can simply bar from entry any such potential returnees who do not have the means to support themselves.

    Serves them right, no?
    Lol - it really is not feasible to stop UK citizens coming back to the UK - most of those I'm talking about are not hardened terrorists, criminals, lunatics, etc. Some of them are a bit thick but heigh ho....
    Though under current rules, anyone non resident is not eligible for NHS treatment, unless they can prove that they are no longer living overseas and have at least 10 years of NI conttibutions. This applies to UK citizens too.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,309
    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    Penddu said:

    Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.

    Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
    Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
    He means those living in the UK as penniless ex immigrants return from EU countries. Many of whom are of retirement age with medical conditions and will strain the NHS and who won’t have any capital to buy property because the housing market herme may collapse because too many properties go on the market at the same time. Like Felix I have a good cushion but many who came out on just the state pension when it was 1.5 will be struggling now.
    Well, we'll be out of the EU and free to make our own laws then. We can simply bar from entry any such potential returnees who do not have the means to support themselves.

    Serves them right, no?
    Lol - it really is not feasible to stop UK citizens coming back to the UK - most of those I'm talking about are not hardened terrorists, criminals, lunatics, etc. Some of them are a bit thick but heigh ho....
    A bit thick? Some make turkeys voting for Christmas look intelligent
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,309
    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    Penddu said:

    Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.

    Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
    Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
    He means those living in the UK as penniless ex immigrants return from EU countries. Many of whom are of retirement age with medical conditions and will strain the NHS and who won’t have any capital to buy property because the housing market herme may collapse because too many properties go on the market at the same time. Like Felix I have a good cushion but many who came out on just the state pension when it was 1.5 will be struggling now.
    Well, we'll be out of the EU and free to make our own laws then. We can simply bar from entry any such potential returnees who do not have the means to support themselves.

    Serves them right, no?
    Lol - it really is not feasible to stop UK citizens coming back to the UK - most of those I'm talking about are not hardened terrorists, criminals, lunatics, etc. Some of them are a bit thick but heigh ho....
    Though under current rules, anyone non resident is not eligible for NHS treatment, unless they can prove that they are no longer living overseas and have at least 10 years of NI conttibutions. This applies to UK citizens too.
    Once you are over 65/or of pensionable age you are entitled to treatment otherwise three months residency
  • MangoMango Posts: 578
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:




    A Massachusetts liberal elitist like Warren...

    More caricature.

    And just as lazy.
    Slightly less sexist though.
This discussion has been closed.