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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson PM : His first electoral tests – the local by-el

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited August 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson PM : His first electoral tests – the local by-elections

Many people have said the reason why Boris Johnson was elected Conservative leader, and Prime Minister, was to stop one thing and one thing alone from happening, and that one was Conservative voters flooding to the Brexit Party and following his consistent statements of “We are leaving on October 31st 2019” local by-elections since his election do seem to indicate that is precisely what has happened.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First...like stokes in SPOTY
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Second like Tim Paine with DRS
  • 3rd...as in rate of the england top order batting.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited August 2019
    We'll know if the Cricket jubilation gets too high if Boris starts comparing himself to Stokes rather than Churchill (or getting his flunkies to do so).
    AndyJS said:

    First time since 1888 that a team has won a match after getting bowled out for 79 or fewer runs.

    Possibly the most incredible stat of all.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.

    There's still a small but credible chance the Lib Dems will do very well indeed at the next election. They should certainly make significant gains, but there's the opportunity for enormous gains if things fall their way and they play their cards right.

    Given their main adversaries are led by Johnson and Corbyn, that's rather helpful for them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    kle4 said:

    We'll know if the Cricket jubilation gets too high if Boris starts comparing himself to Stokes rather than Churchill (or getting his flunkies to do so).

    AndyJS said:

    First time since 1888 that a team has won a match after getting bowled out for 79 or fewer runs.

    Possibly the most incredible stat of all.
    Nah, we were just toying with them.

    "We'll give you an innings for buttons - and still win.

    Cheats."
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    kle4 said:

    We'll know if the Cricket jubilation gets too high if Boris starts comparing himself to Stokes rather than Churchill (or getting his flunkies to do so).

    AndyJS said:

    First time since 1888 that a team has won a match after getting bowled out for 79 or fewer runs.

    Possibly the most incredible stat of all.
    England have another score on that list from the match against Ireland.

    http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?class=1;event=1;filter=advanced;innings_number=1;innings_number=2;orderby=team_score;orderbyad=reverse;result=1;runsmax1=99;runsval1=runs;size=200;template=results;type=team;view=innings
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    Basic situation is that the Lib Dems are a bigger threat to Labour than Brexit Party to Cons. So Cons win.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    "The government is putting Britons at risk by depriving Isis members of their British citizenship, a former defence minister has said.

    Tobias Ellwood told The Independent the detention of thousands of jihadis and their families in Syria was creating conditions for an Isis resurgence.

    “We’ll see Daesh 2.0,” he warned. “We’ll see a repeat of al-Qaeda regrouping and becoming a very real threat, and that threat won’t just pose itself in the Middle East, but also to Britain.”"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/isis-fighters-uk-begum-letts-terror-risk-tobias-ellwood-a9077001.html
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    @HarryHayfield , you are one of the most necessary, and yet most unsung, contributors. Please keep up the good work
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2019
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "The government is putting Britons at risk by depriving Isis members of their British citizenship, a former defence minister has said.

    Tobias Ellwood told The Independent the detention of thousands of jihadis and their families in Syria was creating conditions for an Isis resurgence.

    “We’ll see Daesh 2.0,” he warned. “We’ll see a repeat of al-Qaeda regrouping and becoming a very real threat, and that threat won’t just pose itself in the Middle East, but also to Britain.”"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/isis-fighters-uk-begum-letts-terror-risk-tobias-ellwood-a9077001.html

    Better they be a threat over there than over here. And if they do something over there and a drone can get them even better.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,849
    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.
  • kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    If Remain will win then why vote for the New Coke of Remain? Why not go for Lib Dems?
  • Did that really happen in the cricket or was i dreaming and England as usual collapsed to 200 all out?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    viewcode said:

    @HarryHayfield , you are one of the most necessary, and yet most unsung, contributors. Please keep up the good work

    Agreed. Not often enough praised - but much appreciated.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Too late. No remainer trusts them on this anymore. Seamus has done his work.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Haha - because people would believe they really mean it this time - all the time throwing back at them their own words about how the vote must be respected.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    viewcode said:

    @HarryHayfield , you are one of the most necessary, and yet most unsung, contributors. Please keep up the good work

    Seconded
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Did that really happen in the cricket or was i dreaming and England as usual collapsed to 200 all out?

    All out 230 + Stokes.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "The government is putting Britons at risk by depriving Isis members of their British citizenship, a former defence minister has said.

    Tobias Ellwood told The Independent the detention of thousands of jihadis and their families in Syria was creating conditions for an Isis resurgence.

    “We’ll see Daesh 2.0,” he warned. “We’ll see a repeat of al-Qaeda regrouping and becoming a very real threat, and that threat won’t just pose itself in the Middle East, but also to Britain.”"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/isis-fighters-uk-begum-letts-terror-risk-tobias-ellwood-a9077001.html

    Riiight.

    Well they can feck right off and live in their Islamic paradise
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Pulpstar said:

    Did that really happen in the cricket or was i dreaming and England as usual collapsed to 200 all out?

    All out 230 + Stokes.
    Even Boycott was impressed:
    "I’ve seen some remarkable cricket moments in my life but that is the best I’ve seen in over 50 years"...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Too late. No remainer trusts them on this anymore. Seamus has done his work.
    So Tories for leave, Libs for remain - What's Labours usp?

    Apart from providing a home for anti semitic nut jobs I mean
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    FF43 said:

    Basic situation is that the Lib Dems are a bigger threat to Labour than Brexit Party to Cons. So Cons win.

    True, Con win big majority with that split opposition.
    Hard to understand why Labour would want or allow an election under current polling.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Floater said:

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Too late. No remainer trusts them on this anymore. Seamus has done his work.
    So Tories for leave, Libs for remain - What's Labours usp?

    Apart from providing a home for anti semitic nut jobs I mean
    Someone's got to be the exact middle position between them, even if that position makes no sense to anyone.

    A bit like a coin theoretically landing perfectly on its edge when tossed.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    Floater said:

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Too late. No remainer trusts them on this anymore. Seamus has done his work.
    So Tories for leave, Libs for remain - What's Labours usp?

    Apart from providing a home for anti semitic nut jobs I mean
    I have a trestle table for sale.

    How many times can one man knock one out to Labours demise without realising he has prematurely ejaculated again!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Did that really happen in the cricket or was i dreaming and England as usual collapsed to 200 all out?

    All out 230 + Stokes.
    Even Boycott was impressed:
    "I’ve seen some remarkable cricket moments in my life but that is the best I’ve seen in over 50 years"...
    Bloody hell! Praise beyond praise.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Except they won't, the LDs can always out Remain Corbyn Labour now, especially as Corbyn has refused to rule out campaigning for a Labour Brexit Deal even if he does back EUref2 while the LDs have always committed to back Remain in all circumstances
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited August 2019
    Floater said:

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Too late. No remainer trusts them on this anymore. Seamus has done his work.
    So Tories for leave, Libs for remain - What's Labours usp?

    Apart from providing a home for anti semitic nut jobs I mean
    Brexit light or a chance to vote for remain.
    Seems fair to me.
    Chance to vote against a racist and their little helper from a previous coalition, will be Labour's riposte.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Floater said:

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Too late. No remainer trusts them on this anymore. Seamus has done his work.
    So Tories for leave, Libs for remain - What's Labours usp?

    Apart from providing a home for anti semitic nut jobs I mean
    Their USP is that somehow they will be allowed to talk about other issues.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    Floater said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "The government is putting Britons at risk by depriving Isis members of their British citizenship, a former defence minister has said.

    Tobias Ellwood told The Independent the detention of thousands of jihadis and their families in Syria was creating conditions for an Isis resurgence.

    “We’ll see Daesh 2.0,” he warned. “We’ll see a repeat of al-Qaeda regrouping and becoming a very real threat, and that threat won’t just pose itself in the Middle East, but also to Britain.”"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/isis-fighters-uk-begum-letts-terror-risk-tobias-ellwood-a9077001.html

    Riiight.

    Well they can feck right off and live in their Islamic paradise
    Leaving the extremists to fester in far away places never comes back to bite anyone on the arse. Definitely a sound policy.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Except they won't, the LDs can always out Remain Corbyn Labour now, especially as Corbyn has refused to rule out campaigning for a Labour Brexit Deal even if he does back EUref2 while the LDs have always committed to back Remain in all circumstances
    Corbyns gonna do worse than Foot

    200 Majority for Tories

    Just like in 2017
  • Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Did that really happen in the cricket or was i dreaming and England as usual collapsed to 200 all out?

    All out 230 + Stokes.
    Even Boycott was impressed:
    "I’ve seen some remarkable cricket moments in my life but that is the best I’ve seen in over 50 years"...
    I bet he wouldn't be saying that is Stokes reverse sweep had gone up in the air....
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Except they won't, the LDs can always out Remain Corbyn Labour now, especially as Corbyn has refused to rule out campaigning for a Labour Brexit Deal even if he does back EUref2 while the LDs have always committed to back Remain in all circumstances
    Corbyns gonna do worse than Foot

    200 Majority for Tories

    Just like in 2017
    Today marks 3,393 days since the UK last had a Labour Prime Minister.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Except they won't, the LDs can always out Remain Corbyn Labour now, especially as Corbyn has refused to rule out campaigning for a Labour Brexit Deal even if he does back EUref2 while the LDs have always committed to back Remain in all circumstances
    Corbyns gonna do worse than Foot

    200 Majority for Tories

    Just like in 2017
    Second time's the charm? They had better hope so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2019

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Except they won't, the LDs can always out Remain Corbyn Labour now, especially as Corbyn has refused to rule out campaigning for a Labour Brexit Deal even if he does back EUref2 while the LDs have always committed to back Remain in all circumstances
    Corbyns gonna do worse than Foot

    200 Majority for Tories

    Just like in 2017
    On voteshare Corbyn will likely do worse than Foot but it won't be a 200 Tory majority, 30 to 50 more like.

    While Boris has won back most Leavers who have defected to the Brexit Party, Corbyn has not won back most Remainers who have defected to the LDs
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    HYUFD said:
    Looks like the start of a gameshow.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    There's something wrong with my Cricinfo app.

    It keeps reverting to a score from about 20 overs ago, which is very annoying.

    But today it's gone disastrously wrong and it's showing England won by one wicket. So it's become pretty much unusable.

    Anyone know how I can fix it?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Afternoon all :)

    Congratulations to England's cricketers and kudos who those who stayed loyal in betting terms - anyone backing England immediately after the end of the first innings will have made a very tidy profit.

    It's also a reminder how fickle sentiment is - the men who were vilified yesterday are going to be idolised tomorrow. It can turn often brutally quickly and those who were once popular can be as welcome as pineapple on pizza (I believe that's a PB in-joke for the clique). Politicians also need to be aware and riding the tiger of popularity is fine as long as the tiger doesn't think you're lunch.

    Fascinating YouGov polling this morning - not the VI numbers which were within margin of error though you wouldn't think so reading the so-called analysis but the question of preferred option.

    35% back Remain vis a second referendum (I presume that includes those who would just revoke). 26% back leaving without a Deal at all. 7% back Theresa May's Deal while 17% back an alternative deal which keeps the UK in the SM and CU so that might be the vote for BINO. 15% are Don't Knows and I can't say I blame them.

    There will be those who will claim with 50% there is a clear mandate for LEAVE - er, no, there isn't. A third of those backing leave want to do so on a basis which the current Conservative Government could not accept - continued membership of the SM and CU has been explicitly ruled out as it would leave us unable to do any trade deals an would effectively leave us as a "vassal state".

    Government policy is therefore actively backed by 33% (including TM's Deal) with presumably a share of the "Don't Knows" falling into line as well. 52% back either Remaining or a deal which is tantamount to remaining.

    The test for Johnson will be when the realisation sinks in there is no Deal on the table and as a result we exit without a Deal on 31/10.

    For all the optimism from the pro-Johnson media about the meetings with Merkel and Macron, the truth is nothing changed. The EU line as enunciated by Tusk, Barnier and Juncker since March 2017 is it is up to the UK to put forward credible solutions to the problems caused by the UK ceasing to be a member of the EU. The EU will consider the solutions put forward but they need to be practical and credible on Day 1 not technological flights of fancy which might work in 2030. It's also not unreasonable to imagine the EU will act in the EU's best interests and the UK can't imagine every idea it puts forward will be instantly accepted.

    Johnson, for all his bluff and bluster, is going nowhere slowly but at least he's doing it with a smile.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited August 2019
    Quite funny watching the G7 breakfast meeting and hearing Trump say he was previously stymied when he tried to do a trade deal with the EU/UK.

    In other words they didn't roll over like poodles to the US demands. No wonder The Donald is so much happier about doing a trade deal with us now that we're about to Brexit.

    What and this is supposed to be a victory for Boris?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Freggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Except they won't, the LDs can always out Remain Corbyn Labour now, especially as Corbyn has refused to rule out campaigning for a Labour Brexit Deal even if he does back EUref2 while the LDs have always committed to back Remain in all circumstances
    Corbyns gonna do worse than Foot

    200 Majority for Tories

    Just like in 2017
    Today marks 3,393 14,722 days since the UK last had a Labour Prime Minister.
    Fixed that for you.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting article IMO.

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/08/23/why-we-dont-trust-the-news-anymore/

    "Why we don’t trust the news anymore
    Journalists think it is their job to ‘correct’ the opinions of voters.

    Fraser Myers"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited August 2019

    HYUFD said:
    Looks like the start of a gameshow.
    Spin the wheel - which elderly chap in a blue suit will you end up with? Grey suit permits a respin, and red lady ends the game. The winner gets to replace the chap they ended up on for one day.
  • HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Except they won't, the LDs can always out Remain Corbyn Labour now, especially as Corbyn has refused to rule out campaigning for a Labour Brexit Deal even if he does back EUref2 while the LDs have always committed to back Remain in all circumstances
    Corbyns gonna do worse than Foot

    200 Majority for Tories

    Just like in 2017
    Could have happened had May not been so crap.

    Boris is not crap.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2019
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Congratulations to England's cricketers and kudos who those who stayed loyal in betting terms - anyone backing England immediately after the end of the first innings will have made a very tidy profit.

    It's also a reminder how fickle sentiment is - the men who were vilified yesterday are going to be idolised tomorrow. It can turn often brutally quickly and those who were once popular can be as welcome as pineapple on pizza (I believe that's a PB in-joke for the clique). Politicians also need to be aware and riding the tiger of popularity is fine as long as the tiger doesn't think you're lunch.

    Fascinating YouGov polling this morning - not the VI numbers which were within margin of error though you wouldn't think so reading the so-called analysis but the question of preferred option.

    35% back Remain vis a second referendum (I presume that includes

    Government policy is therefore actively backed by 33% (including TM's Deal) with presumably a share of the "Don't Knows" falling into line as well. 52% back either Remaining or a deal which is tantamount to remaining.

    The test for Johnson will be when the realisation sinks in there is no Deal on the table and as a result we exit without a Deal on 31/10.

    For all the optimism from the pro-Johnson media about the meetings with Merkel and Macron, the truth is nothing changed. The EU line as enunciated by Tusk, Barnier and Juncker since March 2017 is it is up to the UK to put forward credible solutions to the problems caused by the UK ceasing to be a member of the EU. The EU will consider the solutions put forward but they need to be practical and credible on Day 1 not technological flights of fancy which might work in 2030. It's also not unreasonable to imagine the EU will act in the EU's best interests and the UK can't imagine every idea it puts forward will be instantly accepted.

    Johnson, for all his bluff and bluster, is going nowhere slowly but at least he's doing it with a smile.

    35% back Revoke and Remain ie the LD position, 33% back Leaving with No Deal or a version of May's Deal ie the new Tory position and only 17% back a Deal which keeps the UK in the SM and Customs Union ie the Corbyn Labour position.

    Under FPTP that is good news for Swinson and Boris but bad news for Corbyn, even if Corbyn arguably now holds the median Brexit position he is getting squeezed from both ends
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Who's that donkey playing up front for Spurs? I thought their fortunes were supposed to be aligned with the England cricket team.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Except they won't, the LDs can always out Remain Corbyn Labour now, especially as Corbyn has refused to rule out campaigning for a Labour Brexit Deal even if he does back EUref2 while the LDs have always committed to back Remain in all circumstances
    Corbyns gonna do worse than Foot

    200 Majority for Tories

    Just like in 2017
    Could have happened had May not been so crap.

    Boris is not crap.
    Yet to be seen - he's promised so much if he fails he will do even worse.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    If Remain will win then why vote for the New Coke of Remain? Why not go for Lib Dems?
    Vote for whichever one is best placed to beat the Conservatives.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Has there been some sort of sporting event happening? You all seem very relaxed even if your comments are incomprehensible.

    I have been enjoying the sunshine ...... what else would a person be doing on a day such as this? :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    Cyclefree said:

    Has there been some sort of sporting event happening? You all seem very relaxed even if your comments are incomprehensible.

    I have been enjoying the sunshine ...... what else would a person be doing on a day such as this? :)

    I have been trying out a large organ.

    And enjoying the sunshine.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Cyclefree said:

    Has there been some sort of sporting event happening? You all seem very relaxed even if your comments are incomprehensible.

    I have been enjoying the sunshine ...... what else would a person be doing on a day such as this? :)

    While I was in for the conclusion, it is thankfully possible as earlier to enjoy the glorious sunshine and listen to the sport simulaneously :)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    The cricket wasn't even the most remarkable sporting contest today. Marquez v Rins was a classic at Silverstone.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Cyclefree said:

    Has there been some sort of sporting event happening? You all seem very relaxed even if your comments are incomprehensible.

    I have been enjoying the sunshine ...... what else would a person be doing on a day such as this? :)

    I’ve been in the sunshine. Though clearing vast quantities of Greater Celandine does not constitute enjoying it.

    The cricket proved a nice backdrop.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Except they won't, the LDs can always out Remain Corbyn Labour now, especially as Corbyn has refused to rule out campaigning for a Labour Brexit Deal even if he does back EUref2 while the LDs have always committed to back Remain in all circumstances
    Corbyns gonna do worse than Foot

    200 Majority for Tories

    Just like in 2017
    On voteshare Corbyn will likely do worse than Foot but it won't be a 200 Tory majority, 30 to 50 more like.

    While Boris has won back most Leavers who have defected to the Brexit Party, Corbyn has not won back most Remainers who have defected to the LDs
    Your 2017 prediction was so far wide of the mark you should try to separate reality from wishful thinking for fear of disappointment,
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Cyclefree said:

    Has there been some sort of sporting event happening? You all seem very relaxed even if your comments are incomprehensible.

    I have been enjoying the sunshine ...... what else would a person be doing on a day such as this? :)

    Two world heritage sites with a national trust property in between. Now in the twice brewed pub before a drive down the A68 home
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Except they won't, the LDs can always out Remain Corbyn Labour now, especially as Corbyn has refused to rule out campaigning for a Labour Brexit Deal even if he does back EUref2 while the LDs have always committed to back Remain in all circumstances
    Corbyns gonna do worse than Foot

    200 Majority for Tories

    Just like in 2017
    On voteshare Corbyn will likely do worse than Foot but it won't be a 200 Tory majority, 30 to 50 more like.

    While Boris has won back most Leavers who have defected to the Brexit Party, Corbyn has not won back most Remainers who have defected to the LDs
    Your 2017 prediction was so far wide of the mark you should try to separate reality from wishful thinking for fear of disappointment,
    I didn't make a 2017 prediction and certainly was not predicting a Tory landslide after the dementia tax disaster but even so the Tories did won most seats, 42% of the vote and May was re elected.

    The LDs were also polling nowhere near as high then as they are now. When the 2017 general election was called for example Yougov had the LDs on just 12% compared to 20% now and those extra LD votes are mainly coming from Labour
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    HYUFD said:
    Looks like the start of a gameshow.
    The Italians are bloody lucky to be there if you ask me.

    They also seem to get by far the least media coverage. Behind Abe, Trudeau, and even the EU rep.

    Does anyone care what they have to say?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Congratulations to England's cricketers and kudos who those who stayed loyal in betting terms - anyone backing England immediately after the end of the first innings will have made a very tidy profit.

    It's also a reminder how fickle sentiment is - the men who were vilified yesterday are going to be idolised tomorrow. It can turn often brutally quickly and those who were once popular can be as welcome as pineapple on pizza (I believe that's a PB in-joke for the clique). Politicians also need to be aware and riding the tiger of popularity is fine as long as the tiger doesn't think you're lunch.

    Fascinating YouGov polling this morning - not the VI numbers which were within margin of error though you wouldn't think so reading the so-called analysis but the question of preferred option.

    35% back Remain vis a second referendum (I presume that includes

    Government policy is therefore actively backed by 33% (including TM's Deal) with presumably a share of the "Don't Knows" falling into line as well. 52% back either Remaining or a deal which is tantamount to remaining.

    The test for Johnson will be when the realisation sinks in there is no Deal on the table and as a result we exit without a Deal on 31/10.

    For all the optimism from the pro-Johnson media about the meetings with Merkel and Macron, the truth is nothing changed. The EU line as enunciated by Tusk, Barnier and Juncker since March 2017 is it is up to the UK to put forward credible solutions to the problems caused by the UK ceasing to be a member of the EU. The EU will consider the solutions put forward but they need to be practical and credible on Day 1 not technological flights of fancy which might work in 2030. It's also not unreasonable to imagine the EU will act in the EU's best interests and the UK can't imagine every idea it puts forward will be instantly accepted.

    Johnson, for all his bluff and bluster, is going nowhere slowly but at least he's doing it with a smile.

    35% back Revoke and Remain ie the LD position, 33% back Leaving with No Deal or a version of May's Deal ie the new Tory position and only 17% back a Deal which keeps the UK in the SM and Customs Union ie the Corbyn Labour position.

    Under FPTP that is good news for Swinson and Boris but bad news for Corbyn, even if Corbyn arguably now holds the median Brexit position he is getting squeezed from both ends
    I notice the BBC are using Johnson as they should.
    If you say Corbyn or Swinson.
    You could do the same.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2019

    HYUFD said:
    Looks like the start of a gameshow.
    The Italians are bloody lucky to be there if you ask me.

    They also seem to get by far the least media coverage. Behind Abe, Trudeau, and even the EU rep.

    Does anyone care what they have to say?
    Certainly not with a technocrat PM like Conte who has just lost one of his key coalition partners
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,043

    Floater said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "The government is putting Britons at risk by depriving Isis members of their British citizenship, a former defence minister has said.

    Tobias Ellwood told The Independent the detention of thousands of jihadis and their families in Syria was creating conditions for an Isis resurgence.

    “We’ll see Daesh 2.0,” he warned. “We’ll see a repeat of al-Qaeda regrouping and becoming a very real threat, and that threat won’t just pose itself in the Middle East, but also to Britain.”"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/isis-fighters-uk-begum-letts-terror-risk-tobias-ellwood-a9077001.html

    Riiight.

    Well they can feck right off and live in their Islamic paradise
    Leaving the extremists to fester in far away places never comes back to bite anyone on the arse. Definitely a sound policy.
    I'm not entirely sure how them being in near places inhibits their ability to fester. Perhaps you can explain.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Has there been some sort of sporting event happening? You all seem very relaxed even if your comments are incomprehensible.

    I have been enjoying the sunshine ...... what else would a person be doing on a day such as this? :)

    I have been trying out a large organ.

    And enjoying the sunshine.
    Steady, it's not the lagershed yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Congratulations to England's cricketers and kudos who those who stayed loyal in betting terms - anyone backing England immediately after the end of the first innings will have made a very tidy profit.

    It's also a reminder how fickle sentiment is - the men who were vilified yesterday are going to be idolised tomorrow. It can turn often brutally quickly and those who were once popular can be as welcome as pineapple on pizza (I believe that's a PB in-joke for the clique). Politicians also need to be aware and riding the tiger of popularity is fine as long as the tiger doesn't think you're lunch.

    Fascinating YouGov polling this morning - not the VI numbers which were within margin of error though you wouldn't think so reading the so-called analysis but the question of preferred option.

    35% back Remain vis a second referendum (I presume that includes

    Government policy is therefore actively backed by 33% (including TM's Deal) with presumably a share of the "Don't Knows" falling into line as well. 52% back either Remaining or a deal which is tantamount to remaining.

    The test for Johnson will be when the realisation sinks in there is no Deal on the table and as a result we exit without a Deal on 31/10.

    For all the optimism from the pro-Johnson media about the meetings with Merkel and Macron, the truth is nothing changed. The EU line as enunciated by Tusk, Barnier and Juncker since March 2017 is it is up to the UK to put forward credible solutions to the problems caused by the UK ceasing to be a member of the EU. The EU will consider the solutions put forward but they need to be practical and credible on Day 1 not technological flights of fancy which might work in 2030. It's also not unreasonable to imagine the EU will act in the EU's best interests and the UK can't imagine every idea it puts forward will be instantly accepted.

    Johnson, for all his bluff and bluster, is going nowhere slowly but at least he's doing it with a smile.

    35% back Revoke and Remain ie the LD position, 33% back Leaving with No Deal or a version of May's Deal ie the new Tory position and only 17% back a Deal which keeps the UK in the SM and Customs Union ie the Corbyn Labour position.

    Under FPTP that is good news for Swinson and Boris but bad news for Corbyn, even if Corbyn arguably now holds the median Brexit position he is getting squeezed from both ends
    I notice the BBC are using Johnson as they should.
    If you say Corbyn or Swinson.
    You could do the same.
    No, as I am a Tory and do not work for the BBC.

    Boris works fine for me thanks
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting article IMO.

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/08/23/why-we-dont-trust-the-news-anymore/

    "Why we don’t trust the news anymore
    Journalists think it is their job to ‘correct’ the opinions of voters.

    Fraser Myers"

    Lot of straw manning going on in that article.

    For a start, it addresses a speech given by a single journalist, and expands that gp ‘journalists’.
    And if you’d actually listened to Byrne’s speech, she was talking about situations where politicians tell blatant untruths, not where they express opinions she might not share.

    Her point that testable facts are not a matter of public opinion seems a fair one to me, FWIW.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    HYUFD said:
    Looks like the start of a gameshow.
    The Italians are bloody lucky to be there if you ask me.

    They also seem to get by far the least media coverage. Behind Abe, Trudeau, and even the EU rep.

    Does anyone care what they have to say?
    A bit mean, yes?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Has there been some sort of sporting event happening? You all seem very relaxed even if your comments are incomprehensible.

    I have been enjoying the sunshine ...... what else would a person be doing on a day such as this? :)

    I have been trying out a large organ.

    And enjoying the sunshine.
    Steady, it's not the lagershed yet.
    Best to try out such instruments when sober, I think ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:
    Looks like the start of a gameshow.
    The Italians are bloody lucky to be there if you ask me.

    They also seem to get by far the least media coverage. Behind Abe, Trudeau, and even the EU rep.

    Does anyone care what they have to say?
    A bit mean, yes?
    In reality of course China and India should be there instead of Italy and Canada if it truly reflected the 7 largest world economies still but in reality that role has largely been taken by the G20 which China and India do attend along with the G7 nations while the G7 is largely a western talking shop now
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748

    Floater said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "The government is putting Britons at risk by depriving Isis members of their British citizenship, a former defence minister has said.

    Tobias Ellwood told The Independent the detention of thousands of jihadis and their families in Syria was creating conditions for an Isis resurgence.

    “We’ll see Daesh 2.0,” he warned. “We’ll see a repeat of al-Qaeda regrouping and becoming a very real threat, and that threat won’t just pose itself in the Middle East, but also to Britain.”"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/isis-fighters-uk-begum-letts-terror-risk-tobias-ellwood-a9077001.html

    Riiight.

    Well they can feck right off and live in their Islamic paradise
    Leaving the extremists to fester in far away places never comes back to bite anyone on the arse. Definitely a sound policy.
    I'm not entirely sure how them being in near places inhibits their ability to fester. Perhaps you can explain.
    You're one of a number of people on here towards whom I don't feel the teeniest obligation to explain anything.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited August 2019
    I'm currently suffering from what feels like heatstroke and dehydration* but it was bloody worth it.

    Headingley 2019 was like Headingley 1981 and Edgbaston 2005 all rolled in to one.

    So glad I've got tickets for the Old Trafford test. It's coming home.

    But cricket is boring we really need The Hundred to make it interesting.

    *It is bloody hard for a good Muslim boy to keep himself hydrated at test matches in England.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    HYUFD said:
    Note that Johnson has some pompous crested vermilion leather dossier while everyone else makes do with the meeting pack and maybe a notepad.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741

    I'm currently suffering from what feels like heatstroke and dehydration* but it was bloody worth it.

    Headingley 2019 was like Headingley 1981 and Edgbaston 2005 all rolled in to one.

    So glad I've got tickets for the Old Trafford test. It's coming home.

    But cricket is boring we really need The Hundred to make it interesting.

    *It is bloody hard for a good Muslim boy to keep himself hydrated at test matches in England.

    You watched that live?

    Talking of large organs...
  • I'm currently suffering from what feels like heatstroke and dehydration* but it was bloody worth it.

    Headingley 2019 was like Headingley 1981 and Edgbaston 2005 all rolled in to one.

    So glad I've got tickets for the Old Trafford test. It's coming home.

    But cricket is boring we really need The Hundred to make it interesting.

    *It is bloody hard for a good Muslim boy to keep himself hydrated at test matches in England.

    Spare a thought for us who sat through the final (half) day at Edgbaston....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited August 2019
    ydoethur said:

    I'm currently suffering from what feels like heatstroke and dehydration* but it was bloody worth it.

    Headingley 2019 was like Headingley 1981 and Edgbaston 2005 all rolled in to one.

    So glad I've got tickets for the Old Trafford test. It's coming home.

    But cricket is boring we really need The Hundred to make it interesting.

    *It is bloody hard for a good Muslim boy to keep himself hydrated at test matches in England.

    You watched that live?

    Talking of large organs...
    I did all four days, around 1.30pm on Friday I was offering tickets for the rest of this test match and the Old Trafford test for a fiver ONO.

    This is why I'm a member of the Lancashire CCC and Yorkshire CCC.
  • ydoethur said:

    I'm currently suffering from what feels like heatstroke and dehydration* but it was bloody worth it.

    Headingley 2019 was like Headingley 1981 and Edgbaston 2005 all rolled in to one.

    So glad I've got tickets for the Old Trafford test. It's coming home.

    But cricket is boring we really need The Hundred to make it interesting.

    *It is bloody hard for a good Muslim boy to keep himself hydrated at test matches in England.

    You watched that live?

    Talking of large organs...
    I did all four days, around 1.30pm on Friday I was offering tickets for the rest of this test match and the Old Trafford test for a fiver ONO.

    This is why I'm a member of the Lancashire CCC and Yorkshire CCC.
    You have both those memberships so you can max out on tickets for TheHundred right?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Except they won't, the LDs can always out Remain Corbyn Labour now, especially as Corbyn has refused to rule out campaigning for a Labour Brexit Deal even if he does back EUref2 while the LDs have always committed to back Remain in all circumstances
    Corbyns gonna do worse than Foot

    200 Majority for Tories

    Just like in 2017
    On voteshare Corbyn will likely do worse than Foot but it won't be a 200 Tory majority, 30 to 50 more like.

    While Boris has won back most Leavers who have defected to the Brexit Party, Corbyn has not won back most Remainers who have defected to the LDs
    Your 2017 prediction was so far wide of the mark you should try to separate reality from wishful thinking for fear of disappointment,
    I didn't make a 2017 prediction and certainly was not predicting a Tory landslide after the dementia tax disaster but even so the Tories did won most seats, 42% of the vote and May was re elected.

    The LDs were also polling nowhere near as high then as they are now. When the 2017 general election was called for example Yougov had the LDs on just 12% compared to 20% now and those extra LD votes are mainly coming from Labour
    Some polls have the Lib Dems nearer the 12% at 15 or so.
  • I'm currently suffering from what feels like heatstroke and dehydration* but it was bloody worth it.

    Headingley 2019 was like Headingley 1981 and Edgbaston 2005 all rolled in to one.

    So glad I've got tickets for the Old Trafford test. It's coming home.

    But cricket is boring we really need The Hundred to make it interesting.

    *It is bloody hard for a good Muslim boy to keep himself hydrated at test matches in England.

    Spare a thought for us who sat through the final (half) day at Edgbaston....
    I feel your pain, I started following the England cricket team in 1990, I suspect you and I have attended some dire England performances.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Except they won't, the LDs can always out Remain Corbyn Labour now, especially as Corbyn has refused to rule out campaigning for a Labour Brexit Deal even if he does back EUref2 while the LDs have always committed to back Remain in all circumstances
    Corbyns gonna do worse than Foot

    200 Majority for Tories

    Just like in 2017
    On voteshare Corbyn will likely do worse than Foot but it won't be a 200 Tory majority, 30 to 50 more like.

    While Boris has won back most Leavers who have defected to the Brexit Party, Corbyn has not won back most Remainers who have defected to the LDs
    Your 2017 prediction was so far wide of the mark you should try to separate reality from wishful thinking for fear of disappointment,
    I didn't make a 2017 prediction and certainly was not predicting a Tory landslide after the dementia tax disaster but even so the Tories did won most seats, 42% of the vote and May was re elected.

    The LDs were also polling nowhere near as high then as they are now. When the 2017 general election was called for example Yougov had the LDs on just 12% compared to 20% now and those extra LD votes are mainly coming from Labour
    Some polls have the Lib Dems nearer the 12% at 15 or so.
    Yes but I was comparing Yougov to Yougov, some other pollsters had the LDs even lower in spring 2017
  • I'm currently suffering from what feels like heatstroke and dehydration* but it was bloody worth it.

    Headingley 2019 was like Headingley 1981 and Edgbaston 2005 all rolled in to one.

    So glad I've got tickets for the Old Trafford test. It's coming home.

    But cricket is boring we really need The Hundred to make it interesting.

    *It is bloody hard for a good Muslim boy to keep himself hydrated at test matches in England.

    Spare a thought for us who sat through the final (half) day at Edgbaston....
    I feel your pain, I started following the England cricket team in 1990, I suspect you and I have attended some dire England performances.
    I fear it might be a return to norm at the next test.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Congratulations to England's cricketers and kudos who those who stayed loyal in betting terms - anyone backing England immediately after the end of the first innings will have made a very tidy profit.

    It's also a reminder how fickle sentiment is - the men who were vilified yesterday are going to be idolised tomorrow. It can turn often brutally quickly and those who were once popular can be as welcome as pineapple on pizza (I believe that's a PB in-joke for the clique). Politicians also need to be aware and riding the tiger of popularity is fine as long as the tiger doesn't think you're lunch.

    Fascinating YouGov polling this morning - not the VI numbers which were within margin of error though you wouldn't think so reading the so-called analysis but the question of preferred option.

    35% back Remain vis a second referendum (I presume that includes

    Government policy is therefore actively backed by 33% (including TM's Deal) with presumably a share of the "Don't Knows" falling into line as well. 52% back either Remaining or a deal which is tantamount to remaining.

    The test for Johnson will be when the realisation sinks in there is no Deal on the table and as a result we exit without a Deal on 31/10.

    For all the optimism from the pro-Johnson media about the meetings with Merkel and Macron, the truth is nothing changed. The EU line as enunciated by Tusk, Barnier and Juncker since March 2017 is it is up to the UK to put forward credible solutions to the problems caused by the UK ceasing to be a member of the EU. The EU will consider the solutions put forward but they need to be practical and credible on Day 1 not technological flights of fancy which might work in 2030. It's also not unreasonable to imagine the EU will act in the EU's best interests and the UK can't imagine every idea it puts forward will be instantly accepted.

    Johnson, for all his bluff and bluster, is going nowhere slowly but at least he's doing it with a smile.

    35% back Revoke and Remain ie the LD position, 33% back Leaving with No Deal or a version of May's Deal ie the new Tory position and only 17% back a Deal which keeps the UK in the SM and Customs Union ie the Corbyn Labour position.

    Under FPTP that is good news for Swinson and Boris but bad news for Corbyn, even if Corbyn arguably now holds the median Brexit position he is getting squeezed from both ends
    I notice the BBC are using Johnson as they should.
    If you say Corbyn or Swinson.
    You could do the same.
    Why should random people have to adhere to broadcasting normalities? I cannot stand the man, but I'll use Boris plenty of times, thanks.
  • I'm currently suffering from what feels like heatstroke and dehydration* but it was bloody worth it.

    Headingley 2019 was like Headingley 1981 and Edgbaston 2005 all rolled in to one.

    So glad I've got tickets for the Old Trafford test. It's coming home.

    But cricket is boring we really need The Hundred to make it interesting.

    *It is bloody hard for a good Muslim boy to keep himself hydrated at test matches in England.

    Spare a thought for us who sat through the final (half) day at Edgbaston....
    I feel your pain, I started following the England cricket team in 1990, I suspect you and I have attended some dire England performances.
    I fear it might be a return to norm at the next test.
    Sir Jimmy Anderson and Sir Jofra Archer taking the new ball at Old Trafford in early September means we're going to roll over the Aussies for like 100 in both innings.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,043
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Note that Johnson has some pompous crested vermilion leather dossier while everyone else makes do with the meeting pack and maybe a notepad.
    It is monogrammed. It's a nice touch, he is representing Betty after all.
  • Hurrah for the famously publicity shy Paddy Power.

    https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/1165650554225405955
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    edited August 2019

    I'm currently suffering from what feels like heatstroke and dehydration* but it was bloody worth it.

    Headingley 2019 was like Headingley 1981 and Edgbaston 2005 all rolled in to one.

    So glad I've got tickets for the Old Trafford test. It's coming home.

    But cricket is boring we really need The Hundred to make it interesting.

    *It is bloody hard for a good Muslim boy to keep himself hydrated at test matches in England.

    I wonder if Islam had arisen not in Arabia, where drinking alcohol or eating pork are not the most sensible of things, but in a colder climate whether the Islamic dietary laws might be somewhat different.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Nigelb said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting article IMO.

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/08/23/why-we-dont-trust-the-news-anymore/

    "Why we don’t trust the news anymore
    Journalists think it is their job to ‘correct’ the opinions of voters.

    Fraser Myers"

    Lot of straw manning going on in that article.

    For a start, it addresses a speech given by a single journalist, and expands that gp ‘journalists’.
    And if you’d actually listened to Byrne’s speech, she was talking about situations where politicians tell blatant untruths, not where they express opinions she might not share.

    Her point that testable facts are not a matter of public opinion seems a fair one to me, FWIW.

    There's a potential problem in overlap, however. Politicians rarely tell outright lies as much as we act like they do, quite often its more they mislead or lie by omission, or are really creative in interpreting facts in ways which may well be silly, but are not outright wrong. Calling out direct untruths sounds great, but forgive me if I am a little skeptical that many of the journalists so keen to do so would be able to restrict themselves to the testable facts, and instead get into slanging matches with those they are interviewing on a basis that fits their personal politics.

    Not saying it could not and does not happen, it does, but I think there's a bit of wishful thinking that noble journos calling out the sketchy politicians will be as problem free as pretended.
  • Hurrah for the famously publicity shy Paddy Power.

    twitter.com/paddypower/status/1165650554225405955

    The PR department of Paddy Power are genius. I love the no football sponsorship logo campaign..
  • *Checks diary*

    The last two tests are during my next stint as editor of PB, I'll be able to put my feet up at the tests and not worry about what's going on in the world of politics right?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Could have happened had May not been so crap.

    Boris is not crap.

    BoZo is so crap May beat him last time...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    Jeremy Corbyn
    @jeremycorbyn
    ·
    1h
    What an innings by Ben Stokes to keep the #Ashes alive for England.

    And that must go down as the best 1* ever from Jack Leach.

    Yet another reason that Test cricket should be free to watch on TV.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Scott_P said:

    Could have happened had May not been so crap.

    Boris is not crap.

    BoZo is so crap May beat him last time...
    She didn't as Boris pulled out early
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Could have happened had May not been so crap.

    Boris is not crap.

    BoZo is so crap May beat him last time...
    She didn't as Boris pulled out early
    Fnarr.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    Has there been some sort of sporting event happening? You all seem very relaxed even if your comments are incomprehensible.

    I have been enjoying the sunshine ...... what else would a person be doing on a day such as this? :)

    I’ve been in the sunshine. Though clearing vast quantities of Greater Celandine does not constitute enjoying it.

    The cricket proved a nice backdrop.
    Shameless plug: I am available for advice on garden design (the sort involving plants - not bloody decking and bamboo, which are even more of a crime against good sense than chocolate on one’s coffee) and the best nurseries + actual gardening work, which I adore. Very few things make me as happy as when I have my hands in earth and all I need to keep me going is a good supply of proper builders’ tea. Plus I can fit 50 or more plants in my car.

    What’s not to love?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Come that pre Brexit election - which I fear won't - Labour WILL be Remain. It's how they can win it. The only way really.

    Except they won't, the LDs can always out Remain Corbyn Labour now, especially as Corbyn has refused to rule out campaigning for a Labour Brexit Deal even if he does back EUref2 while the LDs have always committed to back Remain in all circumstances
    Corbyns gonna do worse than Foot

    200 Majority for Tories

    Just like in 2017
    Could have happened had May not been so crap.

    Boris is not crap.
    BJICIPM
  • Jeremy Corbyn
    @jeremycorbyn
    ·
    1h
    What an innings by Ben Stokes to keep the #Ashes alive for England.

    And that must go down as the best 1* ever from Jack Leach.

    Yet another reason that Test cricket should be free to watch on TV.

    It is...its on C5 now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited August 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Could have happened had May not been so crap.

    Boris is not crap.

    BoZo is so crap May beat him last time...
    She didn't as Boris pulled out early
    So we have been informed. And not thinking he was going to win and pulling out, then spending the entire time scheming and bitching shows how bloody great he is how?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    Finger on the pulse as usual

    Jeremy Corbyn
    @jeremycorbyn
    ·
    1h
    What an innings by Ben Stokes to keep the #Ashes alive for England.

    And that must go down as the best 1* ever from Jack Leach.

    Yet another reason that Test cricket should be free to watch on TV.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    kle4 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Congratulations to England's cricketers and kudos who those who stayed loyal in betting terms - anyone backing England immediately after the end of the first innings will have made a very tidy profit.

    It's also a reminder how fickle sentiment is - the men who were vilified yesterday are going to be idolised tomorrow. It can turn often brutally quickly and those who were once popular can be as welcome as pineapple on pizza (I believe that's a PB in-joke for the clique). Politicians also need to be aware and riding the tiger of popularity is fine as long as the tiger doesn't think you're lunch.

    Fascinating YouGov polling this morning - not the VI numbers which were within margin of error though you wouldn't think so reading the so-called analysis but the question of preferred option.

    35% back Remain vis a second referendum (I presume that includes

    Government policy is therefore actively backed by 33% (including TM's Deal) with presumably a share of the "Don't Knows" falling into line as well. 52% back either Remaining or a deal which is tantamount to remaining.

    The test for Johnson will be when the realisation sinks in there is no Deal on the table and as a result we exit without a Deal on 31/10.

    For all the optimism from the pro-Johnson media about the meetings with Merkel and Macron, the truth is nothing changed. The EU line as enunciated by Tusk, Barnier and Juncker since March 2017 is it is up to the UK to put forward credible solutions to the problems caused by the UK ceasing to be a member of the EU. The EU will consider the solutions put forward but they need to be practical and credible on Day 1 not technological flights of fancy which might work in 2030. It's also not unreasonable to imagine the EU will act in the EU's best interests and the UK can't imagine every idea it puts forward will be instantly accepted.

    Johnson, for all his bluff and bluster, is going nowhere slowly but at least he's doing it with a smile.

    35% back Revoke and Remain ie the LD position, 33% back Leaving with No Deal or a version of May's Deal ie the new Tory position and only 17% back a Deal which keeps the UK in the SM and Customs Union ie the Corbyn Labour position.

    Under FPTP that is good news for Swinson and Boris but bad news for Corbyn, even if Corbyn arguably now holds the median Brexit position he is getting squeezed from both ends
    I notice the BBC are using Johnson as they should.
    If you say Corbyn or Swinson.
    You could do the same.
    Why should random people have to adhere to broadcasting normalities? I cannot stand the man, but I'll use Boris plenty of times, thanks.
    Don't thank me, I was not speaking to you.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited August 2019

    Hurrah for the famously publicity shy Paddy Power.

    twitter.com/paddypower/status/1165650554225405955

    The PR department of Paddy Power are genius. I love the no football sponsorship logo campaign..
    The 'Visit North Korea' sponsorship got me.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722

    Jeremy Corbyn
    @jeremycorbyn
    ·
    1h
    What an innings by Ben Stokes to keep the #Ashes alive for England.

    And that must go down as the best 1* ever from Jack Leach.

    Yet another reason that Test cricket should be free to watch on TV.

    It is...its on C5 now.
    Will give it another watch
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    HYUFD said:


    35% back Revoke and Remain ie the LD position, 33% back Leaving with No Deal or a version of May's Deal ie the new Tory position and only 17% back a Deal which keeps the UK in the SM and Customs Union ie the Corbyn Labour position.

    Under FPTP that is good news for Swinson and Boris but bad news for Corbyn, even if Corbyn arguably now holds the median Brexit position he is getting squeezed from both ends

    Just a couple of observations - we don't know how many of the "loyal" 7% will pivot to No Deal or revoke/Remain once it becomes finally and irrevocably clear the WA is dead.

    It's the 17% I don't understand. Even if every Conservative MP were to be replaced by a Labour-voting doppelganger overnight (England won the cricket, stranger things have happened) the new Corbyn Government would face the same EU negotiators.

    The EU have agreed a WA - it can't be renegotiated. Setting an extension achieves nothing - Corbyn would have to revoke and then re-start A50 to get a new WA. If he had a 100 seat majority he could probably do that - if he led a minority administration dependent on the support of other parties, perhaps not.

    As an aside, given we know some of the ERG such as Redwood will never vote for the WA and given some other Conservatives such as Hammond are adamantly opposed to a No Deal, Johnson needs more than just to win a majority - he's going to need a minimum 70 seat gap to provide headroom to see off rebels.

    Should Hammond be de-selected following his letter to the Prime Minister? If Runnymede & Weybridge Conservatives re-adopt him, should the constituency association be suspended and a pro-Johnson candidate be imposed by CCHQ?

  • CatManCatMan Posts: 2,721
    edited August 2019
    In an alternative universe, Ben Stokes never came to England, and we are all talking about when are we ever going to win a World Cup and Joe Root has just resigned as England captain!
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