I wonder what Mr O'Hara would have written about Howe's 1981 budget? Surely there was a party throwing itself off the cliff in the mad pursuit of monetarism, against the advice of the famous 364 economists, with an MP crossing the floor and others walking out, dooming itself to never winning an election again or at best squeaking through one election on the back of divided opposition before its inevitable and final annihilation?
What happened instead was the underlying inflation that had so dogged our economic performance for more than a decade was finally brought under control and unemployment fell sharply rather than the increase forecast. The ground was set for strong future economic growth and a new consensus was created that remained in place until the latter days of Brown's hubris.
So let it be with Brexit. If we leave (and it is still not certain) there will be a new consensus and all to play for.
Thatcher made a massive u-turn over her original monetarist plan though. And I'm not sure where your idea of a sharp fall in employment comes from, it steadily rose until the mid 80s...
Unemployment fell sharply after the 1981 budget until a second recession in the late 80’s. I checked my memory of this this morning before posting but can’t access the table on my phone.
I think you're mistaken on that, it rose until the mid 80s, then declined in the late 80s whilst still being higher than when she took office. The highest point on record is in 1984 I believe.
I think you're misreading the chart (which to be fair is tricky to read on a phone). As the text says: "After the 1980-81 recession, unemployment rose even further. This rise in unemployment proved more persistent because it caused structural unemployment – resulting from the decline in the manufacturing sector.
Structural unemployment. Another feature of unemployment in the 1980s was that even during the boom period 1985-89, unemployment was relatively high. "
I wonder what Mr O'Hara would have written about Howe's 1981 budget? Surely there was a party throwing itself off the cliff in the mad pursuit of monetarism, against the advice of the famous 364 economists, with an MP crossing the floor and others walking out, dooming itself to never winning an election again or at best squeaking through one election on the back of divided opposition before its inevitable and final annihilation?
What happened instead was the underlying inflation that had so dogged our economic performance for more than a decade was finally brought under control and unemployment fell sharply rather than the increase forecast. The ground was set for strong future economic growth and a new consensus was created that remained in place until the latter days of Brown's hubris.
So let it be with Brexit. If we leave (and it is still not certain) there will be a new consensus and all to play for.
Thatcher made a massive u-turn over her original monetarist plan though. And I'm not sure where your idea of a sharp fall in employment comes from, it steadily rose until the mid 80s...
Unemployment fell sharply after the 1981 budget until a second recession in the late 80’s. I checked my memory of this this morning before posting but can’t access the table on my phone.
I think you're mistaken on that, it rose until the mid 80s, then declined in the late 80s whilst still being higher than when she took office. The highest point on record is in 1984 I believe.
On topic, there are things I agree with in this article and things I don't.
Is Britain really more urban than the 70s and 80s? The population has increased, sure, but mostly through housebuilding outside the big cities. The rural/suburban to urban move is an oversimplification and reflects the youth only, who then move out again. The author betrays his own experiences and prejudices.
What is true is that the UK is more multi ethnic and more socially liberal, however, concerns about immigration remain, which drove the Brexit vote in the first place.
I think this is more about the Conservatives having very little to offer the under 35s, and caring even less, and if I were them I'd start with the 35-50 age group and do some planning around that.
Its clear that the only 'real' form of Brexit should have been EFTA membership and member of Single Market/CU. That would either have been a good place to be, or a 10-15 year stepping stone to something else.
But, we are where we are...well done you f**kers in the ERG.
I wonder what Mr O'Hara would have written about Howe's 1981 budget? Surely there was a party throwing itself off the cliff in the mad pursuit of monetarism, against the advice of the famous 364 economists, with an MP crossing the floor and others walking out, dooming itself to never winning an election again or at best squeaking through one election on the back of divided opposition before its inevitable and final annihilation?
What happened instead was the underlying inflation that had so dogged our economic performance for more than a decade was finally brought under control and unemployment fell sharply rather than the increase forecast. The ground was set for strong future economic growth and a new consensus was created that remained in place until the latter days of Brown's hubris.
So let it be with Brexit. If we leave (and it is still not certain) there will be a new consensus and all to play for.
Thatcher made a massive u-turn over her original monetarist plan though. And I'm not sure where your idea of a sharp fall in employment comes from, it steadily rose until the mid 80s...
Unemployment fell sharply after the 1981 budget until a second recession in the late 80’s. I checked my memory of this this morning before posting but can’t access the table on my phone.
A sharp fall in unemployment from the highest levels since the great depression and still substantially above the level inherited by Thatcher is what I'm sure you meant (and lets not even get into the finagling of the definition of unemployment).
No its not, its the action of party discipline. If the Tories are not going to be perpetually in office but not in power they need to take these steps. The fact that May wimped out of taking them when she was in charge does not make it any less necessary.
No, it really isn't. It's turning the Conservatives from a broad church to a narrowly-focused, one-issue campaign group - and one that I hope will soon be flushed down the sewer of history.
I mean, the idea that Bone or JRM are more fit to be Conservative MP's than (say) Ken Clarke or Rory Stewart is laughable. Worse, one Brexit is over, the moderate voices will be gone, to be replaced with people with only one mindset. And given this act, they will all be yes-men and yes-women (if women are allowed in, that is).
The Conservative Party will become a right-wing cesspit. The warning signs are already there, with good honourable members leaving (including some on here). The odds are the voters will follow.
You might want to consider that 'discipline' is a rather loaded word.
I am all in favour of broad churches on everything that is not central to your policy. But if you are to stand as a Conservative MP in a Conservative seat you need to support that central policy with your votes even if you try to temper it behind the scenes or argue for a change of direction. Otherwise you have no government as May demonstrated per adventure.
That doesn't make it right. The EU was a central policy under Major, but the bastards still repeatedly voted against Major and the party.
And I hope that Johnson and his fellow bastards don't have a government soon, either.
And the likes of IDS and Bill Cash should have been kicked out. The Conservative party would have been stronger for it. We might even have got Ken Clarke as PM.
Major had demolished his own EU policy with the ERM departure - things flowed relentlessly from there.
An interesting 'what-if' would be what if the UK had devalued after the 1992 GE but stayed within the ERM.
But Major had made £1=2.95DM his political virility symbol.
The idea Corbyn would reject the chance of a GE is for the birds as even Chuka Umunna has just said on Sky
Even if he got to be Prime Minister? He's heading to lose the next election, isn't it better to roll the dice and hope to get a bounce? He could probably do a good job of de-scarifying himself.
The political consensus seems to be that Corbyn has no get out clause from backing a GE
Furthermore it seems that this morning Boris is making the vote one of confidence so lose it I cannot see him doing anything othef than calling a GE
He will call for a general election, which is not the same thing as calling a general election.
Not so long ago he was saying "This nonce has courage. The political class threaten him with ruination and he stands strong...."
I believe a report on Tom Watson's role in the 'Nick' affair and his constant pressure on the police is due out in 15 days and it will be a blistering critique of his personal involvement and there will be demands he resigns as shadow deputy
Seen from the distant yet fitting perspective of the Byzantine ghost city of Mystras, in the southern Peloponnese, just west of Sparta - where I lie on my sunbed, typing this - Britain looks like a stricken young woman in a Jane Austen novel.
She has been confined to bed for months with a progressively worsening illness. But now the crisis comes. The fever must break, in the next few days...
I wonder what Mr O'Hara would have written about Howe's 1981 budget? Surely there was a party throwing itself off the cliff in the mad pursuit of monetarism, against the advice of the famous 364 economists, with an MP crossing the floor and others walking out, dooming itself to never winning an election again or at best squeaking through one election on the back of divided opposition before its inevitable and final annihilation?
What happened instead was the underlying inflation that had so dogged our economic performance for more than a decade was finally brought under control and unemployment fell sharply rather than the increase forecast. The ground was set for strong future economic growth and a new consensus was created that remained in place until the latter days of Brown's hubris.
So let it be with Brexit. If we leave (and it is still not certain) there will be a new consensus and all to play for.
Thatcher made a massive u-turn over her original monetarist plan though. And I'm not sure where your idea of a sharp fall in employment comes from, it steadily rose until the mid 80s...
Unemployment fell sharply after the 1981 budget until a second recession in the late 80’s. I checked my memory of this this morning before posting but can’t access the table on my phone.
I think you're mistaken on that, it rose until the mid 80s, then declined in the late 80s whilst still being higher than when she took office. The highest point on record is in 1984 I believe.
Not so long ago he was saying "This nonce has courage. The political class threaten him with ruination and he stands strong...."
I believe a report on Tom Watson's role in the 'Nick' affair and his constant pressure on the police is due out in 15 days and it will be a blistering critique of his personal involvement and there will be demands he resigns as shadow deputy
I hope there is such a report, as his position was hideous. I commend him for his battle with diabetes and his weight loss; that does not compensate for the harm he caused others.
The same goes for Zac Goldsmith. IMO both abused their positions and power.
I wonder what Mr O'Hara would have written about Howe's 1981 budget? Surely there was a party throwing itself off the cliff in the mad pursuit of monetarism, against the advice of the famous 364 economists, with an MP crossing the floor and others walking out, dooming itself to never winning an election again or at best squeaking through one election on the back of divided opposition before its inevitable and final annihilation?
What happened instead was the underlying inflation that had so dogged our economic performance for more than a decade was finally brought under control and unemployment fell sharply rather than the increase forecast. The ground was set for strong future economic growth and a new consensus was created that remained in place until the latter days of Brown's hubris.
So let it be with Brexit. If we leave (and it is still not certain) there will be a new consensus and all to play for.
Thatcher made a massive u-turn over her original monetarist plan though. And I'm not sure where your idea of a sharp fall in employment comes from, it steadily rose until the mid 80s...
Unemployment fell sharply after the 1981 budget until a second recession in the late 80’s. I checked my memory of this this morning before posting but can’t access the table on my phone.
A sharp fall in unemployment from the highest levels since the great depression and still substantially above the level inherited by Thatcher is what I'm sure you meant (and lets not even get into the finagling of the definition of unemployment).
What I was actually talking about was the Thatcherite economic consensus which prevails to this day. So no major program of renationalisation, no policy of picking winners/losers, trade unions under control and the rule of law, low inflation, sound money, etc etc. It survived 13 years of Labour government.
People should be judged on deeds not words. Maverick genius Dominic Cummings decided to put an end to government leaks. He has failed completely. Maybe, just maybe, he is not the cleverest person in the room.
On topic, there are things I agree with in this article and things I don't.
Is Britain really more urban than the 70s and 80s? The population has increased, sure, but mostly through housebuilding outside the big cities. The rural/suburban to urban move is an oversimplification and reflects the youth only, who then move out again. The author betrays his own experiences and prejudices.
What is true is that the UK is more multi ethnic and more socially liberal, however, concerns about immigration remain, which drove the Brexit vote in the first place.
I think this is more about the Conservatives having very little to offer the under 35s, and caring even less, and if I were them I'd start with the 35-50 age group and do some planning around that.
Indeed.
I suspect Glen is transposing his personal experience onto the country as a whole as we all sometimes do.
Its also utterly crass to reference the Conservatives problems with young voters without mentioning student debt and housing costs.
Any moves to install anyone as PM without a GE will result in uproar in the public
An administration of Labour + Lib Dem represents a larger share of the popular vote than a Conservative + DUP one.
If so it has to be tested in a GE
Technically they won a higher percentage of the popular vote at the last election compared to the DUP and Tory party. If they also have more votes in Parliament they deserve a chance of Government as that is the purpose of the FTPA.
Just because you don't like an argument when it's used against you doesn't invalidate the argument.
Maybe but it is not about me liking an argument, a GE is the only answer
No its not, its the action of party discipline. If the Tories are not going to be perpetually in office but not in power they need to take these steps. The fact that May wimped out of taking them when she was in charge does not make it any less necessary.
No, it really isn't. It's turning the Conservatives from a broad church to a narrowly-focused, one-issue campaign group - and one that I hope will soon be flushed down the sewer of history.
I mean, the idea that Bone or JRM are more fit to be Conservative MP's than (say) Ken Clarke or Rory Stewart is laughable. Worse, one Brexit is over, the moderate voices will be gone, to be replaced with people with only one mindset. And given this act, they will all be yes-men and yes-women (if women are allowed in, that is).
The Conservative Party will become a right-wing cesspit. The warning signs are already there, with good honourable members leaving (including some on here). The odds are the voters will follow.
You might want to consider that 'discipline' is a rather loaded word.
I am all in favour of broad churches on everything that is not central to your policy. But if you are to stand as a Conservative MP in a Conservative seat you need to support that central policy with your votes even if you try to temper it behind the scenes or argue for a change of direction. Otherwise you have no government as May demonstrated per adventure.
That doesn't make it right. The EU was a central policy under Major, but the bastards still repeatedly voted against Major and the party.
And I hope that Johnson and his fellow bastards don't have a government soon, either.
And the likes of IDS and Bill Cash should have been kicked out. The Conservative party would have been stronger for it. We might even have got Ken Clarke as PM.
Major had demolished his own EU policy with the ERM departure - things flowed relentlessly from there.
An interesting 'what-if' would be what if the UK had devalued after the 1992 GE but stayed within the ERM.
But Major had made £1=2.95DM his political virility symbol.
Soros would probably have made another billion. Our economy was seriously out of synch with the German economy in particular and a fixed exchange rate was a very bad idea. As is us joining the Euro of course.
Any moves to install anyone as PM without a GE will result in uproar in the public
An administration of Labour + Lib Dem represents a larger share of the popular vote than a Conservative + DUP one.
If so it has to be tested in a GE
Technically they won a higher percentage of the popular vote at the last election compared to the DUP and Tory party. If they also have more votes in Parliament they deserve a chance of Government as that is the purpose of the FTPA.
Just because you don't like an argument when it's used against you doesn't invalidate the argument.
Maybe but it is not about me liking an argument, a GE is the only answer
A General election won't solve a thing - this issue was created by a referendum another referendum is the only thing that will lance this boil...
I wonder what Mr O'Hara would have written about Howe's 1981 budget? Surely there was a party throwing itself off the cliff in the mad pursuit of monetarism, against the advice of the famous 364 economists, with an MP crossing the floor and others walking out, dooming itself to never winning an election again or at best squeaking through one election on the back of divided opposition before its inevitable and final annihilation?
What happened instead was the underlying inflation that had so dogged our economic performance for more than a decade was finally brought under control and unemployment fell sharply rather than the increase forecast. The ground was set for strong future economic growth and a new consensus was created that remained in place until the latter days of Brown's hubris.
So let it be with Brexit. If we leave (and it is still not certain) there will be a new consensus and all to play for.
Thatcher made a massive u-turn over her original monetarist plan though. And I'm not sure where your idea of a sharp fall in employment comes from, it steadily rose until the mid 80s...
Unemployment fell sharply after the 1981 budget until a second recession in the late 80’s. I checked my memory of this this morning before posting but can’t access the table on my phone.
A sharp fall in unemployment from the highest levels since the great depression and still substantially above the level inherited by Thatcher is what I'm sure you meant (and lets not even get into the finagling of the definition of unemployment).
What I was actually talking about was the Thatcherite economic consensus which prevails to this day. So no major program of renationalisation, no policy of picking winners/losers, trade unions under control and the rule of law, low inflation, sound money, etc etc. It survived 13 years of Labour government.
Thatcher was big on 'living within your means'.
Something which disappeared from British political life two decades ago.
I think a lot is going to develop this week. There are a lot of "known unknowns" and maybe a couple of "unknown unknowns" which will reveal themselves before next Monday. While lots of posters here (including me) like to hypothecate over the different scenarios, I can see that many posts are going to look very outdated very quickly.
I agree and in Scotland it is even more complex. I cannot see the Scottish courts allowing Boris to run roughshod over the Scottish parliament. This will create a scenario where there is almost no way to implement no deal in Scotland. The country is almost fully united in not agreeing with the English Tory plan. Even the Scottish tories.
Some Scottish and N Irish backstop is my initial thought as where we are heading but who knows
It will be implemented by matter of treaty (Scotland will not be a member of the EU)
If the SP wishes to not pass any necessary laws that is a dereliction of their duty
Time the Treaty of Union was revoked, then we do not need to worry about Dictators laws from Westminster
This is the issue dereliction of what duty? The Scots have not voted for Brexit and made it clear they are opposed to no deal. The English Tories are prepared to ignore Parliament but expect the Scots to respect their rules. I rarely agree with Malcolm but in this case is he is right. The Scots can just say and will say no.
Sure, they can put their fingers in their ears
But when they turn up to the ports to export stuff and they don’t have the right paperwork...
No the Scots as Malcom would point out can always just declare independence.
We need a second referendum to undo the damage of a very poorly designed first question. Whilst deceptively simple it failed in one key respect. Other less catastrophic referenda have pitched the status quo vs a clearly defined new end state. By failing to do that, the 2016 referendum created this mess.
We need to pitch the possible end states against one another, including an option to remain partly to ensure full participation, but also to recognise the vagueness of the first question. Something has to win now and a vote is the fairest way to do it IMO. There will be pain and outrage with any outcome. This is the least bad outcome.
Far chance of course whilst this government is bent on forcing its will through all possible parliamentary tactics and abuse of positional power.
It will be fascinating to see exactly when the losers vote brigade realise it isn’t going to happen. Will Brexit actually convince them that it won’t? I remain unconvinced...
Of course we will Brexit but you seem to think that will be the end of the matter.
I would have thought that the manner in which we are being dragooned into a No Deal Brexit makes it even more likely that a party promising joining EFTA, or a new referendum to rejoin the EU will win an election within the next few years.
Brexit with No Deal might meet the letter of the referendum result but not the spirit of it. The whole leave campaign will look even more like one big lie than it did before.
The Tory party has turned into a shrill "suck it up" UKIP Mark 2 tribute act and it is significant to me that a lot of the more thoughtful members are leaving. I think you are heading for a short-lived pyrrhic victory. Enjoy it while you can
To be honest Alastair I don't think it can. It is just so depressing
Given the difficulties this country has either gone through or been predicted to go through during my lifetime this is nothing.
And perhaps its a good thing that our failed establishment is finally exposed.
That may be true, but the UK's inabilty to produce a coherent and sustainable alternative has also been exposed. That failure may be the primary cause of those darker times.
People should be judged on deeds not words. Maverick genius Dominic Cummings decided to put an end to government leaks. He has failed completely. Maybe, just maybe, he is not the cleverest person in the room.
He thinks he's the cleverest person in the room. He likes to project the image of himself as the cleverest person in the room.
In my experience that means he is almost certainly not the cleverest person in the room.
This is starting to remind me of that Chernobyl TV series. The only credential of any heft is commitment to the cause.
From the Vote Leave committee all the way down to each of us in this room-- we represent the perfect expression of the collective will of the British people.
Sometimes, we forget. Sometimes, we fall prey to fear. But our faith in Brexit will always be rewarded. Always. The leader tells us the situation is not dangerous. Have faith. The leader tells us he does not want a panic. Listen well.
True, when the people see shortages, they will be scared. But it is my experience that when the people ask questions that are not in their own best interest, they should simply be told to keep their minds on their labour-- and to leave matters of the state to the state.
We seal off the country. No one leaves. And cut the internet. Contain the spread of misinformation. That is how you keep the people from undermining their own will.
Yes, Brexiteers, we will all be rewarded for what we do here tonight. This is our moment to shine.
All lies! What would the growers/importers/packers/manufacturers/wholesalers/retailers know about it? Anyone would think these traitors knew anything about how to negotiate. The should Simply Back Boris and we will be fine.
The question Prof O’Hara does not address (quite appropriately for reasons of space) is “what is their alternative?”
Have Johnson/Cummings chosen the least worst option if their objective is to deliver BREXIT?
If they genuinely believe Remainers within and without Parliament are effectively blocking renegotiation by the EU, what else should they do?
Their renegotiation aim of WA minus Back Stop is the only thing the House has voted in favour of.
What will more delay lead to other than further uncertainty?
One thing I am sure of - this House is no longer fit for purpose and the sooner it - and its Speaker - are replaced, the better. As for which government that leads to - who the heck knows?
The next House will largely be made up of the same people, or very similar ones, possibly be of very similar political composition, and will have the same Speaker.
You think Becrow will hold Buckingham if the Tories run against him?
Any moves to install anyone as PM without a GE will result in uproar in the public
An administration of Labour + Lib Dem represents a larger share of the popular vote than a Conservative + DUP one.
If so it has to be tested in a GE
Technically they won a higher percentage of the popular vote at the last election compared to the DUP and Tory party. If they also have more votes in Parliament they deserve a chance of Government as that is the purpose of the FTPA.
Just because you don't like an argument when it's used against you doesn't invalidate the argument.
Maybe but it is not about me liking an argument, a GE is the only answer
A General election won't solve a thing - this issue was created by a referendum another referendum is the only thing that will lance this boil...
How do we get another referendum without a GE? The Tories won't vote for ref2. We need a lib/lab/SNP govt to get ref 2.
Blair - as is so often the case these days - is right. Labour MPs should not vote for a general election. The opportunity to kill off crash Brexit is now. An election throws the whole thing up into the air.
What a load of clueless bollocks. Bloomberg have been making this anti-Brexit noise, hysterically and incessantly, for the last three years. The seventy eighth time they hit themselves on the head with their Massive Remainer Tambourine is no more impressive than the first. No matter how hard they try.
The question Prof O’Hara does not address (quite appropriately for reasons of space) is “what is their alternative?”
Have Johnson/Cummings chosen the least worst option if their objective is to deliver BREXIT?
If they genuinely believe Remainers within and without Parliament are effectively blocking renegotiation by the EU, what else should they do?
Their renegotiation aim of WA minus Back Stop is the only thing the House has voted in favour of.
What will more delay lead to other than further uncertainty?
One thing I am sure of - this House is no longer fit for purpose and the sooner it - and its Speaker - are replaced, the better. As for which government that leads to - who the heck knows?
The next House will largely be made up of the same people, or very similar ones, possibly be of very similar political composition, and will have the same Speaker.
You think Becrow will hold Buckingham if the Tories run against him?
The question Prof O’Hara does not address (quite appropriately for reasons of space) is “what is their alternative?”
Have Johnson/Cummings chosen the least worst option if their objective is to deliver BREXIT?
If they genuinely believe Remainers within and without Parliament are effectively blocking renegotiation by the EU, what else should they do?
Their renegotiation aim of WA minus Back Stop is the only thing the House has voted in favour of.
What will more delay lead to other than further uncertainty?
One thing I am sure of - this House is no longer fit for purpose and the sooner it - and its Speaker - are replaced, the better. As for which government that leads to - who the heck knows?
The next House will largely be made up of the same people, or very similar ones, possibly be of very similar political composition, and will have the same Speaker.
You think Becrow will hold Buckingham if the Tories run against him?
No its not, its the action of party discipline. If the Tories are not going to be perpetually in office but not in power they need to take these steps. The fact that May wimped out of taking them when she was in charge does not make it any less necessary.
No, it really isn't. It's turning the Conservatives from a broad church to a narrowly-focused, one-issue campaign group - and one that I hope will soon be flushed down the sewer of history.
I mean, the idea that Bone or JRM are more fit to be Conservative MP's than (say) Ken Clarke or Rory Stewart is laughable. Worse, one Brexit is over, the moderate voices will be gone, to be replaced with people with only one mindset. And given this act, they will all be yes-men and yes-women (if women are allowed in, that is).
The Conservative Party will become a right-wing cesspit. The warning signs are already there, with good honourable members leaving (including some on here). The odds are the voters will follow.
You might want to consider that 'discipline' is a rather loaded word.
I am all in favour of broad churches on everything that is not central to your policy. But if you are to stand as a Conservative MP in a Conservative seat you need to support that central policy with your votes even if you try to temper it behind the scenes or argue for a change of direction. Otherwise you have no government as May demonstrated per adventure.
That doesn't make it right. The EU was a central policy under Major, but the bastards still repeatedly voted against Major and the party.
And I hope that Johnson and his fellow bastards don't have a government soon, either.
And the likes of IDS and Bill Cash should have been kicked out. The Conservative party would have been stronger for it. We might even have got Ken Clarke as PM.
Would you care to point out where you said that before (say) a year ago?
I have consistently expressed admiration for Ken Clarke. I have commented previously that a party that selected IDS as leader instead of him was not much short of demented. But I have also always believed and still believe that it is the duty of a government to govern and that means enforcing its will on the Commons. If it doesn't or can't do that then it is not a government worthy of the name, pace May. She should have resigned when her deal was voted down so decisively (and idiotically). It was a disgrace that she did not.
I wonder what Mr O'Hara would have written about Howe's 1981 budget? Surely there was a party throwing itself off the cliff in the mad pursuit of monetarism, against the advice of the famous 364 economists, with an MP crossing the floor and others walking out, dooming itself to never winning an election again or at best squeaking through one election on the back of divided opposition before its inevitable and final annihilation?
What happened instead was the underlying inflation that had so dogged our economic performance for more than a decade was finally brought under control and unemployment fell sharply rather than the increase forecast. The ground was set for strong future economic growth and a new consensus was created that remained in place until the latter days of Brown's hubris.
So let it be with Brexit. If we leave (and it is still not certain) there will be a new consensus and all to play for.
Thatcher made a massive u-turn over her original monetarist plan though. And I'm not sure where your idea of a sharp fall in employment comes from, it steadily rose until the mid 80s...
Unemployment fell sharply after the 1981 budget until a second recession in the late 80’s. I checked my memory of this this morning before posting but can’t access the table on my phone.
A sharp fall in unemployment from the highest levels since the great depression and still substantially above the level inherited by Thatcher is what I'm sure you meant (and lets not even get into the finagling of the definition of unemployment).
Seen from the distant yet fitting perspective of the Byzantine ghost city of Mystras, in the southern Peloponnese, just west of Sparta - where I lie on my sunbed, typing this - Britain looks like a stricken young woman in a Jane Austen novel.
She has been confined to bed for months with a progressively worsening illness. But now the crisis comes. The fever must break, in the next few days...
No its not, its the action of party discipline. If the Tories are not going to be perpetually in office but not in power they need to take these steps. The fact that May wimped out of taking them when she was in charge does not make it any less necessary.
No, it really isn't. It's turning the Conservatives from a broad church to a narrowly-focused, one-issue campaign group - and one that I hope will soon be flushed down the sewer of history.
I mean, the idea that Bone or JRM are more fit to be Conservative MP's than (say) Ken Clarke or Rory Stewart is laughable. Worse, one Brexit is over, the moderate voices will be gone, to be replaced with people with only one mindset. And given this act, they will all be yes-men and yes-women (if women are allowed in, that is).
The Conservative Party will become a right-wing cesspit. The warning signs are already there, with good honourable members leaving (including some on here). The odds are the voters will follow.
You might want to consider that 'discipline' is a rather loaded word.
I am all in favour of broad churches on everything that is not central to your policy. But if you are to stand as a Conservative MP in a Conservative seat you need to support that central policy with your votes even if you try to temper it behind the scenes or argue for a change of direction. Otherwise you have no government as May demonstrated per adventure.
That doesn't make it right. The EU was a central policy under Major, but the bastards still repeatedly voted against Major and the party.
And I hope that Johnson and his fellow bastards don't have a government soon, either.
And the likes of IDS and Bill Cash should have been kicked out. The Conservative party would have been stronger for it. We might even have got Ken Clarke as PM.
Would you care to point out where you said that before (say) a year ago?
I have consistently expressed admiration for Ken Clarke. I have commented previously that a party that selected IDS as leader instead of him was not much short of demented. But I have also always believed and still believe that it is the duty of a government to govern and that means enforcing its will on the Commons. If it doesn't or can't do that then it is not a government worthy of the name, pace May. She should have resigned when her deal was voted down so decisively (and idiotically). It was a disgrace that she did not.
So no, you hadn't said that the likes of IDS and Bill Cash should have been kicked out.
Any moves to install anyone as PM without a GE will result in uproar in the public
An administration of Labour + Lib Dem represents a larger share of the popular vote than a Conservative + DUP one.
If so it has to be tested in a GE
Technically they won a higher percentage of the popular vote at the last election compared to the DUP and Tory party. If they also have more votes in Parliament they deserve a chance of Government as that is the purpose of the FTPA.
Just because you don't like an argument when it's used against you doesn't invalidate the argument.
Maybe but it is not about me liking an argument, a GE is the only answer
A General election won't solve a thing - this issue was created by a referendum another referendum is the only thing that will lance this boil...
How do we get another referendum without a GE? The Tories won't vote for ref2. We need a lib/lab/SNP govt to get ref 2.
And we may well have a lib/lab/SNP/sane former Tory government by the end of this week...
The political consensus seems to be that Corbyn has no get out clause from backing a GE
Furthermore it seems that this morning Boris is making the vote one of confidence so lose it I cannot see him doing anything othef than calling a GE
One of the more useful things to do on a betting site is to try to work out where the political consensus is wrong, or where it might suddenly shift. If a path is already in the consensus, it's already in the price.
I think he has lots of ways out of voting with the government in an early election vote. Bear in mind that the government needs 2/3 of MPs (including absent, dead or irredeemably Irish nationalist MPs) so even a fairly small number of abstentions can be enough to tank the vote.
The vote also needs parliamentary time - which normally wouldn't be a problem, but the Prime Minister has gone and sent them off on holiday for most of the next 3 months. The Golden Rule of Brexit is that every action has hilarious adverse consequences, and "PM wants an election but can't get one because he dissolved parliament" definitely fits. And IIUC you can always preempt it with a VONC; If the government proposes a vote for an early election, the LOTO can get a VONC in first, which could preempt the election by succeeding or could just... run down the clock...
This is another thing that Boris's experiments with stretching the constitution has made easier, because Corbyn can plausibly say, "If I vote for a general election, how do I know that you won't schedule it after we exit", so you need either an extension agreed in advance or more legislation to plug every hole he could possibly try to exploit.
As far as justifications go, preventing No Deal is obviously a crisis by any definition, so it's totally plausible to insist that it's unambiguously done first. And if the election is about whether to do No Deal, and No Deal requires all kinds of preparations, it's genuinely irresponsible to leave unresolved the issue of whether you're going to exit the EU with no deal until mere weeks before it happens.
So basically if Corbyn wants to force things down the VONC route, I think he can. Whether he can get himself the PM job after doing this is harder, and I'd previously assumed the arithmetic for a non-caretaker government was impossible, but if you take 30 Tories, move them to the opposition column, and set things up so that an election leads them directly to the unemployment line...
Any moves to install anyone as PM without a GE will result in uproar in the public
An administration of Labour + Lib Dem represents a larger share of the popular vote than a Conservative + DUP one.
If so it has to be tested in a GE
No it doesn't. You might want it to be, but it doesn't have to be.
Why do you not want a GE
You know why. Because its exactly what Boris wants.
I could ask the same question: why do you not want a 2nd referendum?
I voted remain but believe we must leave but it is proper for those who want to change it to campaign to rejoin. I do not think a referendum will resolve the issue as it cannot guarantee a clear majority either way
I am utterly in despair at Boris nee Cummings but I do believe threatening no deal is the best way to get a deal. ERG members are guilty as much as anyone for where we are as indeed are the 30 plus labour mps who now support TM deal
I would prefer that TM deal came back and got through even against the ERG and DUP and likely seeing the end of Boris as PM
Blair - as is so often the case these days - is right. Labour MPs should not vote for a general election. The opportunity to kill off crash Brexit is now. An election throws the whole thing up into the air.
Listening to him now he talks sense but is the wrong messenger I’m afraid.
I wonder what Mr O'Hara would have written about Howe's 1981 budget? Surely there was a party throwing itself off the cliff in the mad pursuit of monetarism, against the advice of the famous 364 economists, with an MP crossing the floor and others walking out, dooming itself to never winning an election again or at best squeaking through one election on the back of divided opposition before its inevitable and final annihilation?
What happened instead was the underlying inflation that had so dogged our economic performance for more than a decade was finally brought under control and unemployment fell sharply rather than the increase forecast. The ground was set for strong future economic growth and a new consensus was created that remained in place until the latter days of Brown's hubris.
So let it be with Brexit. If we leave (and it is still not certain) there will be a new consensus and all to play for.
Thatcher made a massive u-turn over her original monetarist plan though. And I'm not sure where your idea of a sharp fall in employment comes from, it steadily rose until the mid 80s...
Unemployment fell sharply after the 1981 budget until a second recession in the late 80’s. I checked my memory of this this morning before posting but can’t access the table on my phone.
A sharp fall in unemployment from the highest levels since the great depression and still substantially above the level inherited by Thatcher is what I'm sure you meant (and lets not even get into the finagling of the definition of unemployment).
What I was actually talking about was the Thatcherite economic consensus which prevails to this day. So no major program of renationalisation, no policy of picking winners/losers, trade unions under control and the rule of law, low inflation, sound money, etc etc. It survived 13 years of Labour government.
Thatcher was big on 'living within your means'.
Something which disappeared from British political life two decades ago.
That is true but the deficit has been largely eliminated with far less pain than might have been predicted and governments still "aspire" to her maxim even if they don't deliver on it.
I wonder what Mr O'Hara would have written about Howe's 1981 budget? Surely there was a party throwing itself off the cliff in the mad pursuit of monetarism, against the advice of the famous 364 economists, with an MP crossing the floor and others walking out, dooming itself to never winning an election again or at best squeaking through one election on the back of divided opposition before its inevitable and final annihilation?
What happened instead was the underlying inflation that had so dogged our economic performance for more than a decade was finally brought under control and unemployment fell sharply rather than the increase forecast. The ground was set for strong future economic growth and a new consensus was created that remained in place until the latter days of Brown's hubris.
So let it be with Brexit. If we leave (and it is still not certain) there will be a new consensus and all to play for.
Thatcher made a massive u-turn over her original monetarist plan though. And I'm not sure where your idea of a sharp fall in employment comes from, it steadily rose until the mid 80s...
Unemployment fell sharply after the 1981 budget until a second recession in the late 80’s. I checked my memory of this this morning before posting but can’t access the table on my phone.
A sharp fall in unemployment from the highest levels since the great depression and still substantially above the level inherited by Thatcher is what I'm sure you meant (and lets not even get into the finagling of the definition of unemployment).
Tories always fiddle the numbers in any case
And that i a nutshell is your mentality - "our opppnents are liars, scoundrels and morons."
The great news is that whatever crap No Deal Brexit throws at millions of UK citizens at home and abroad, Johnson, Rees Mogg, Raab, Williamson, Patel, Javid and co - and their families - will be absolutely fine. Their wealth, privilege and connections will see them through. Phew!
Any moves to install anyone as PM without a GE will result in uproar in the public
An administration of Labour + Lib Dem represents a larger share of the popular vote than a Conservative + DUP one.
If so it has to be tested in a GE
Technically they won a higher percentage of the popular vote at the last election compared to the DUP and Tory party. If they also have more votes in Parliament they deserve a chance of Government as that is the purpose of the FTPA.
Just because you don't like an argument when it's used against you doesn't invalidate the argument.
Maybe but it is not about me liking an argument, a GE is the only answer
A General election won't solve a thing - this issue was created by a referendum another referendum is the only thing that will lance this boil...
The political consensus seems to be that Corbyn has no get out clause from backing a GE
Furthermore it seems that this morning Boris is making the vote one of confidence so lose it I cannot see him doing anything othef than calling a GE
One of the more useful things to do on a betting site is to try to work out where the political consensus is wrong, or where it might suddenly shift. If a path is already in the consensus, it's already in the price.
I think he has lots of ways out of voting with the government in an early election vote. Bear in mind that the government needs 2/3 of MPs (including absent, dead or irredeemably Irish nationalist MPs) so even a fairly small number of abstentions can be enough to tank the vote.
The vote also needs parliamentary time - which normally wouldn't be a problem, but the Prime Minister has gone and sent them off on holiday for most of the next 3 months. The Golden Rule of Brexit is that every action has hilarious adverse consequences, and "PM wants an election but can't get one because he dissolved parliament" definitely fits. And IIUC you can always preempt it with a VONC; If the government proposes a vote for an early election, the LOTO can get a VONC in first, which could preempt the election by succeeding or could just... run down the clock...
This is another thing that Boris's experiments with stretching the constitution has made easier, because Corbyn can plausibly say, "If I vote for a general election, how do I know that you won't schedule it after we exit", so you need either an extension agreed in advance or more legislation to plug every hole he could possibly try to exploit.
As far as justifications go, preventing No Deal is obviously a crisis by any definition, so it's totally plausible to insist that it's unambiguously done first. And if the election is about whether to do No Deal, and No Deal requires all kinds of preparations, it's genuinely irresponsible to leave unresolved the issue of whether you're going to exit the EU with no deal until mere weeks before it happens.
So basically if Corbyn wants to force things down the VONC route, I think he can. Whether he can get himself the PM job after doing this is harder, and I'd previously assumed the arithmetic for a non-caretaker government was impossible, but if you take 30 Tories, move them to the opposition column, and set things up so that an election leads them directly to the unemployment line...
Seen from the distant yet fitting perspective of the Byzantine ghost city of Mystras, in the southern Peloponnese, just west of Sparta - where I lie on my sunbed, typing this - Britain looks like a stricken young woman in a Jane Austen novel.
She has been confined to bed for months with a progressively worsening illness. But now the crisis comes. The fever must break, in the next few days...
Who are the quack doctors recommending more bleeding and consumption of mercury in your metaphor?
Any moves to install anyone as PM without a GE will result in uproar in the public
An administration of Labour + Lib Dem represents a larger share of the popular vote than a Conservative + DUP one.
If so it has to be tested in a GE
Technically they won a higher percentage of the popular vote at the last election compared to the DUP and Tory party. If they also have more votes in Parliament they deserve a chance of Government as that is the purpose of the FTPA.
Just because you don't like an argument when it's used against you doesn't invalidate the argument.
Maybe but it is not about me liking an argument, a GE is the only answer
A General election won't solve a thing - this issue was created by a referendum another referendum is the only thing that will lance this boil...
I really do not think it will to be honest
You think if a ‘Remain’ coalition is cobbled together after a GE it will resolve the issue? That the Brexiteers will go silently into the night?
Because the electoral system is rubbish, and will not lead to a representative government or parliament, which are both needed more than ever right now?
People should be judged on deeds not words. Maverick genius Dominic Cummings decided to put an end to government leaks. He has failed completely. Maybe, just maybe, he is not the cleverest person in the room.
He thinks he's the cleverest person in the room. He likes to project the image of himself as the cleverest person in the room.
In my experience that means he is almost certainly not the cleverest person in the room.
If the other people in the room are Boris Johnson, Sajid Javid, Nadine Dorries, Gavin Williamson etc, then Dominic Cummings probably is the most intelligent person in the room.
I wonder what Mr O'Hara would have written about Howe's 1981 budget? Surely there was a party throwing itself off the cliff in the mad pursuit of monetarism, against the advice of the famous 364 economists, with an MP crossing the floor and others walking out, dooming itself to never winning an election again or at best squeaking through one election on the back of divided opposition before its inevitable and final annihilation?
What happened instead was the underlying inflation that had so dogged our economic performance for more than a decade was finally brought under control and unemployment fell sharply rather than the increase forecast. The ground was set for strong future economic growth and a new consensus was created that remained in place until the latter days of Brown's hubris.
So let it be with Brexit. If we leave (and it is still not certain) there will be a new consensus and all to play for.
Thatcher made a massive u-turn over her original monetarist plan though. And I'm not sure where your idea of a sharp fall in employment comes from, it steadily rose until the mid 80s...
Unemployment fell sharply after the 1981 budget until a second recession in the late 80’s. I checked my memory of this this morning before posting but can’t access the table on my phone.
A sharp fall in unemployment from the highest levels since the great depression and still substantially above the level inherited by Thatcher is what I'm sure you meant (and lets not even get into the finagling of the definition of unemployment).
What I was actually talking about was the Thatcherite economic consensus which prevails to this day. So no major program of renationalisation, no policy of picking winners/losers, trade unions under control and the rule of law, low inflation, sound money, etc etc. It survived 13 years of Labour government.
Thatcher was big on 'living within your means'.
Something which disappeared from British political life two decades ago.
That is true but the deficit has been largely eliminated with far less pain than might have been predicted and governments still "aspire" to her maxim even if they don't deliver on it.
Not if you look at the manifestos currently being floated.
I’ve been in Greece a few weeks now. Reading history as I go.
What I now realise - and which I didn’t before - is that Brexit is far far beyond a reset of our trading arrangements, it is a genuine revolution. Hopefully, it will be a very British revolution - largely bloodless - but it is a revolution, nonetheless. The ancien regime - the Europhile elite, the rich metropolitan Remainers - will be sidelined. Or even swept away. Hence their cries of pain, as they subconsciously sense this.
All revolutions are painful. This will be no different. But if Brexit works - in the long term - it will threaten the order everywhere. This is why elites in other countries hate it, too.
He certainly does have a get out clause from a GE whose timing would lead to No Deal (e.g. Nov 1st)
I think Labour would simply amend the proposal to include a suspension of Brexit for 3 months while the election was held and the public had the chance to consider the options. Hardline Tories can say "ha, ha, and you were calling for an elevtion, now you're frit", but I don't think that line would hold.
The great news is that whatever crap No Deal Brexit throws at millions of UK citizens at home and abroad, Johnson, Rees Mogg, Raab, Williamson, Patel, Javid and co - and their families - will be absolutely fine. Their wealth, privilege and connections will see them through. Phew!
If only there was a political party you could vote for that opposed entrenched wealth and power.
I wonder what Mr O'Hara would have written about Howe's 1981 budget? Surely there was a party throwing itself off the cliff in the mad pursuit of monetarism, against the advice of the famous 364 economists, with an MP crossing the floor and others walking out, dooming itself to never winning an election again or at best squeaking through one election on the back of divided opposition before its inevitable and final annihilation?
What happened instead was the underlying inflation that had so dogged our economic performance for more than a decade was finally brought under control and unemployment fell sharply rather than the increase forecast. The ground was set for strong future economic growth and a new consensus was created that remained in place until the latter days of Brown's hubris.
So let it be with Brexit. If we leave (and it is still not certain) there will be a new consensus and all to play for.
Thatcher made a massive u-turn over her original monetarist plan though. And I'm not sure where your idea of a sharp fall in employment comes from, it steadily rose until the mid 80s...
Unemployment fell sharply after the 1981 budget until a second recession in the late 80’s. I checked my memory of this this morning before posting but can’t access the table on my phone.
A sharp fall in unemployment from the highest levels since the great depression and still substantially above the level inherited by Thatcher is what I'm sure you meant (and lets not even get into the finagling of the definition of unemployment).
What I was actually talking about was the Thatcherite economic consensus which prevails to this day. So no major program of renationalisation, no policy of picking winners/losers, trade unions under control and the rule of law, low inflation, sound money, etc etc. It survived 13 years of Labour government.
Thatcher was big on 'living within your means'.
Something which disappeared from British political life two decades ago.
That is true but the deficit has been largely eliminated with far less pain than might have been predicted and governments still "aspire" to her maxim even if they don't deliver on it.
Less pain because the government has pumped so much money into the economy we've had a consumer spending bubble with the consequent trade deficit.
Then there's the off balance sheet financing of student debt which will soon have to be accounted for.
I’ve been in Greece a few weeks now. Reading history as I go.
What I now realise - and which I didn’t before - is that Brexit is far far beyond a reset of our trading arrangements, it is a genuine revolution. Hopefully, it will be a very British revolution - largely bloodless - but it is a revolution, nonetheless. The ancien regime - the Europhile elite, the rich metropolitan Remainers - will be sidelined. Or even swept away. Hence their cries of pain, as they subconsciously sense this.
All revolutions are painful. This will be no different. But if Brexit works - in the long term - it will threaten the order everywhere. This is why elites in other countries hate it, too.
Sounds like you are having a great holiday. Please stay longer. And bring back some of whatever you're smoking, it's obviously some good shit.
Totally off topic: but does anyone know whether No. 10 's door was once painted green.
Neither of my two books on the history of No. 10 mentions it but the following site does: https://www.ironmongerydirect.co.uk/research/10-downing-street/ 1908: Herbert Asquith becomes Prime Minister and has the front door repainted dark green for a brief time.
Any moves to install anyone as PM without a GE will result in uproar in the public
An administration of Labour + Lib Dem represents a larger share of the popular vote than a Conservative + DUP one.
If so it has to be tested in a GE
No it doesn't. You might want it to be, but it doesn't have to be.
Why do you not want a GE
You know why. Because its exactly what Boris wants.
I could ask the same question: why do you not want a 2nd referendum?
I voted remain but believe we must leave but it is proper for those who want to change it to campaign to rejoin. I do not think a referendum will resolve the issue as it cannot guarantee a clear majority either way
I am utterly in despair at Boris nee Cummings but I do believe threatening no deal is the best way to get a deal. ERG members are guilty as much as anyone for where we are as indeed are the 30 plus labour mps who now support TM deal
I would prefer that TM deal came back and got through even against the ERG and DUP and likely seeing the end of Boris as PM
So how does Boris play things when the EU says as it has continually stated since May that there is no willingness to negotiate.
As Boris is going to No Deal if things don't change, anyone sane who believes the EU (and I don't remember any EU representative being fired for lying) has to remove No Deal from Boris's options.
I’ve been in Greece a few weeks now. Reading history as I go.
What I now realise - and which I didn’t before - is that Brexit is far far beyond a reset of our trading arrangements, it is a genuine revolution. Hopefully, it will be a very British revolution - largely bloodless - but it is a revolution, nonetheless. The ancien regime - the Europhile elite, the rich metropolitan Remainers - will be sidelined. Or even swept away. Hence their cries of pain, as they subconsciously sense this.
All revolutions are painful. This will be no different. But if Brexit works - in the long term - it will threaten the order everywhere. This is why elites in other countries hate it, too.
Will the rich metropolitan leavers be left standing?
Any moves to install anyone as PM without a GE will result in uproar in the public
An administration of Labour + Lib Dem represents a larger share of the popular vote than a Conservative + DUP one.
If so it has to be tested in a GE
No it doesn't. You might want it to be, but it doesn't have to be.
Why do you not want a GE
I do want a General Election. I just think if a new government was formed without one, for which there is constitutional provision, there would be as much relief as outrage.
He certainly does have a get out clause from a GE whose timing would lead to No Deal (e.g. Nov 1st)
I think Labour would simply amend the proposal to include a suspension of Brexit for 3 months while the election was held and the public had the chance to consider the options. Hardline Tories can say "ha, ha, and you were calling for an elevtion, now you're frit", but I don't think that line would hold.
Seen from the distant yet fitting perspective of the Byzantine ghost city of Mystras, in the southern Peloponnese, just west of Sparta - where I lie on my sunbed, typing this - Britain looks like a stricken young woman in a Jane Austen novel.
She has been confined to bed for months with a progressively worsening illness. But now the crisis comes. The fever must break, in the next few days...
From these shores it's more like Anna Karenina.
Jane Austen's work was mercifully brief in comparison.
I’ve been in Greece a few weeks now. Reading history as I go.
What I now realise - and which I didn’t before - is that Brexit is far far beyond a reset of our trading arrangements, it is a genuine revolution. Hopefully, it will be a very British revolution - largely bloodless - but it is a revolution, nonetheless. The ancien regime - the Europhile elite, the rich metropolitan Remainers - will be sidelined. Or even swept away. Hence their cries of pain, as they subconsciously sense this.
All revolutions are painful. This will be no different. But if Brexit works - in the long term - it will threaten the order everywhere. This is why elites in other countries hate it, too.
That’s an awful lot of fancy words from someone who is by definition ‘the elite’.
1. Corbyn as their offering for PM 2. No credible Brexit policy 3. No credible action on anti-semitism
The timing is not exactly propitious. But the only thing that has kept them together has been the end point of a general election. They can hardly flinch from it now.
But the Conservatives are not in much of a better state. Boris et al threatening deselection for voting against the government after their repeated voting against the government on the same issue - sometimes for decades - is hilarious.
The Brexiteres are undemocratic scum. Shame on them, and shame on the once-great Conservative Party for putting such scum in power.
They won a contested referendum
They won a contested leadership election
They have clearly stated that the HoC has the right to no confidence them and put a new government in place
Which bit is “undemocratic ”?
And “scum” is not constructive. They are politicians that you disagree with. That doesn’t make them sub-human.
No. What 'leave' meant in the referendum was unclear, and May's deal satisfied it for many leavers, including many prominent ones on here. It was a typically British compromise. The 2017 Conservative manifesto was mainly about a deal. The Conservative leadership election was infiltrated by entryists, as we saw on here. And the polling is not exactly favourable for no-deal.
So given the potential consequences of a no-deal, I'd say going for one given the above is utterly undemocratic. But at least we know you'll be safe of the consequences, whatever happens.
'Scum' is very constructive when talking about people threatening others for actions they have just done themselves. And those who support them knowing this.
What “leave” meant was very very clear
It meant leave.
Under Article 50 the U.K. and the EU had 2 years to agree a new set of arrangements
They failed
So we leave without a new set of arrangements
(And please don’t attack me personally. Playing the man not the ball is never pleasant)
Ignoring the context of the referendum simply makes the leave campaign look like an even bigger lie than it already does. It's dishonest to ignore the things that the Brexiteers said in order to win the referendum.
The hypocrisy of course is that during the first 2 years after the vote every deal from Norway to May's was howled down as "traitorous" because "it's not what leave voters voted for. Then the context was critical apparrently.
Seen from the distant yet fitting perspective of the Byzantine ghost city of Mystras, in the southern Peloponnese, just west of Sparta - where I lie on my sunbed, typing this - Britain looks like a stricken young woman in a Jane Austen novel.
She has been confined to bed for months with a progressively worsening illness. But now the crisis comes. The fever must break, in the next few days...
Who are the quack doctors recommending more bleeding and consumption of mercury in your metaphor?
Hah. I actually went to Missolonghi last week. To see where Lord B died.
It is a suitably bleak, flat, sunburned, melancholy place, hard by a swamp which still occasionally executes locals via malaria. Byron’s last view - of the seething sea, and the brooding islands - as beautiful and desolate as death itself - might have consoled him, I think.
Any moves to install anyone as PM without a GE will result in uproar in the public
An administration of Labour + Lib Dem represents a larger share of the popular vote than a Conservative + DUP one.
If so it has to be tested in a GE
Technically they won a higher percentage of the popular vote at the last election compared to the DUP and Tory party. If they also have more votes in Parliament they deserve a chance of Government as that is the purpose of the FTPA.
Just because you don't like an argument when it's used against you doesn't invalidate the argument.
Maybe but it is not about me liking an argument, a GE is the only answer
A General election won't solve a thing - this issue was created by a referendum another referendum is the only thing that will lance this boil...
Surely that depends upon the result of a 2019 GE. And even if the result is inconclusive, it would probably pave the ground for a more decisive outcome down the road.
1. Conservative MPs would no longer include in their numbers those working actively to undermine the UK's ability to negotiate our exit from the EU. Labour MPs (publically) in favour of Brexit would be extinct. So the parties would at least be more unified.
2. The GE could do to the Brexit Party what the 2015 election did to UKIP's prospects post 2015, allowing the potential for further consolidation of the Leave vote. On the Remain side, Labour would have been weakened and the LDs strengthened, and again the future tactical choices would be clearer.
A subsequent 2020 GE in those circumstances might deliver a result.
Seen from the distant yet fitting perspective of the Byzantine ghost city of Mystras, in the southern Peloponnese, just west of Sparta - where I lie on my sunbed, typing this - Britain looks like a stricken young woman in a Jane Austen novel.
She has been confined to bed for months with a progressively worsening illness. But now the crisis comes. The fever must break, in the next few days...
Who are the quack doctors recommending more bleeding and consumption of mercury in your metaphor?
Hah. I actually went to Missolonghi last week. To see where Lord B died.
It is a suitably bleak, flat, sunburned, melancholy place, hard by a swamp which still occasionally executes locals via malaria. Byron’s last view - of the seething sea, and the brooding islands - as beautiful and desolate as death itself - might have consoled him, I think.
"...hard by a swamp..."
Dear god man if that is not evidence of the elite what on earth is?
The great news is that whatever crap No Deal Brexit throws at millions of UK citizens at home and abroad, Johnson, Rees Mogg, Raab, Williamson, Patel, Javid and co - and their families - will be absolutely fine. Their wealth, privilege and connections will see them through. Phew!
Just like Blair and Brown then.
Plus Cameron and Osborne.
You can add the failed bankers and the incompetent Sir Humphreys.
When was it last different ? Admiral Byng perhaps ?
Comments
"After the 1980-81 recession, unemployment rose even further. This rise in unemployment proved more persistent because it caused structural unemployment – resulting from the decline in the manufacturing sector.
Structural unemployment. Another feature of unemployment in the 1980s was that even during the boom period 1985-89, unemployment was relatively high. "
Is Britain really more urban than the 70s and 80s? The population has increased, sure, but mostly through housebuilding outside the big cities. The rural/suburban to urban move is an oversimplification and reflects the youth only, who then move out again. The author betrays his own experiences and prejudices.
What is true is that the UK is more multi ethnic and more socially liberal, however, concerns about immigration remain, which drove the Brexit vote in the first place.
I think this is more about the Conservatives having very little to offer the under 35s, and caring even less, and if I were them I'd start with the 35-50 age group and do some planning around that.
But, we are where we are...well done you f**kers in the ERG.
An interesting 'what-if' would be what if the UK had devalued after the 1992 GE but stayed within the ERM.
But Major had made £1=2.95DM his political virility symbol.
She has been confined to bed for months with a progressively worsening illness. But now the crisis comes. The fever must break, in the next few days...
1980: 7.4
1981: 11.4
1982: 13.0
1982: 12.2
1983: 11.5
1984: 11.7
1985: 11.8
The same goes for Zac Goldsmith. IMO both abused their positions and power.
I suspect Glen is transposing his personal experience onto the country as a whole as we all sometimes do.
Its also utterly crass to reference the Conservatives problems with young voters without mentioning student debt and housing costs.
Something which disappeared from British political life two decades ago.
I would have thought that the manner in which we are being dragooned into a No Deal Brexit makes it even more likely that a party promising joining EFTA, or a new referendum to rejoin the EU will win an election within the next few years.
Brexit with No Deal might meet the letter of the referendum result but not the spirit of it. The whole leave campaign will look even more like one big lie than it did before.
The Tory party has turned into a shrill "suck it up" UKIP Mark 2 tribute act and it is significant to me that a lot of the more thoughtful members are leaving. I think you are heading for a short-lived pyrrhic victory. Enjoy it while you can
I could ask the same question: why do you not want a 2nd referendum?
In my experience that means he is almost certainly not the cleverest person in the room.
Sometimes, we forget. Sometimes, we fall prey to fear. But our faith in Brexit will always be rewarded. Always. The leader tells us the situation is not dangerous. Have faith. The leader tells us he does not want a panic. Listen well.
True, when the people see shortages, they will be scared. But it is my experience that when the people ask questions that are not in their own best interest, they should simply be told to keep their minds on their labour-- and to leave matters of the state to the state.
We seal off the country. No one leaves. And cut the internet. Contain the spread of misinformation. That is how you keep the people from undermining their own will.
Yes, Brexiteers, we will all be rewarded for what we do here tonight.
This is our moment to shine.
No other party will stand.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/4803858.stm
Yeah, right. Plenty of hypocrites on that one.....
You and Alanbrooke are the specialists.
“Crocodile tears! I don’t remember you complaining when Douglas-Home forfeited his seat in the Lords...” etc..
And it was at one time a respectable conservative stance to be concerned about an elective dictatorship.
Now the game is almost up I would caution them against over-doing the ludicrous predictions of biblical catastrophes post Brexit.
They are setting the expectation bar so low as to almost guarantee the perception of success - which will kill stone dead any prospect of rejoining.
So dull.
I think he has lots of ways out of voting with the government in an early election vote. Bear in mind that the government needs 2/3 of MPs (including absent, dead or irredeemably Irish nationalist MPs) so even a fairly small number of abstentions can be enough to tank the vote.
The vote also needs parliamentary time - which normally wouldn't be a problem, but the Prime Minister has gone and sent them off on holiday for most of the next 3 months. The Golden Rule of Brexit is that every action has hilarious adverse consequences, and "PM wants an election but can't get one because he dissolved parliament" definitely fits. And IIUC you can always preempt it with a VONC; If the government proposes a vote for an early election, the LOTO can get a VONC in first, which could preempt the election by succeeding or could just... run down the clock...
This is another thing that Boris's experiments with stretching the constitution has made easier, because Corbyn can plausibly say, "If I vote for a general election, how do I know that you won't schedule it after we exit", so you need either an extension agreed in advance or more legislation to plug every hole he could possibly try to exploit.
As far as justifications go, preventing No Deal is obviously a crisis by any definition, so it's totally plausible to insist that it's unambiguously done first. And if the election is about whether to do No Deal, and No Deal requires all kinds of preparations, it's genuinely irresponsible to leave unresolved the issue of whether you're going to exit the EU with no deal until mere weeks before it happens.
So basically if Corbyn wants to force things down the VONC route, I think he can. Whether he can get himself the PM job after doing this is harder, and I'd previously assumed the arithmetic for a non-caretaker government was impossible, but if you take 30 Tories, move them to the opposition column, and set things up so that an election leads them directly to the unemployment line...
I am utterly in despair at Boris nee Cummings but I do believe threatening no deal is the best way to get a deal. ERG members are guilty as much as anyone for where we are as indeed are the 30 plus labour mps who now support TM deal
I would prefer that TM deal came back and got through even against the ERG and DUP and likely seeing the end of Boris as PM
Listening to him now he talks sense but is the wrong messenger I’m afraid.
Doesnt win many votes amongst the undecided.
https://events.labour.org.uk/event/280055
I’ve been in Greece a few weeks now. Reading history as I go.
What I now realise - and which I didn’t before - is that Brexit is far far beyond a reset of our trading arrangements, it is a genuine revolution. Hopefully, it will be a very British revolution - largely bloodless - but it is a revolution, nonetheless. The ancien regime - the Europhile elite, the rich metropolitan Remainers - will be sidelined. Or even swept away. Hence their cries of pain, as they subconsciously sense this.
All revolutions are painful. This will be no different. But if Brexit works - in the long term - it will threaten the order everywhere. This is why elites in other countries hate it, too.
So dull.
Then there's the off balance sheet financing of student debt which will soon have to be accounted for.
https://www.ironmongerydirect.co.uk/research/10-downing-street/
1908: Herbert Asquith becomes Prime Minister and has the front door repainted dark green for a brief time.
As Boris is going to No Deal if things don't change, anyone sane who believes the EU (and I don't remember any EU representative being fired for lying) has to remove No Deal from Boris's options.
I just think if a new government was formed without one, for which there is constitutional provision, there would be as much relief as outrage.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/articles/3LrMh99XJ1Xsh7GtrvH1s8H/10-surprising-facts-about-number-10-downing-street
Jane Austen's work was mercifully brief in comparison.
The hypocrisy of course is that during the first 2 years after the vote every deal from Norway to May's was howled down as "traitorous" because "it's not what leave voters voted for. Then the context was critical apparrently.
You might just have me confused for a labour voter...
It is a suitably bleak, flat, sunburned, melancholy place, hard by a swamp which still occasionally executes locals via malaria. Byron’s last view - of the seething sea, and the brooding islands - as beautiful and desolate as death itself - might have consoled him, I think.
1. Conservative MPs would no longer include in their numbers those working actively to undermine the UK's ability to negotiate our exit from the EU. Labour MPs (publically) in favour of Brexit would be extinct. So the parties would at least be more unified.
2. The GE could do to the Brexit Party what the 2015 election did to UKIP's prospects post 2015, allowing the potential for further consolidation of the Leave vote. On the Remain side, Labour would have been weakened and the LDs strengthened, and again the future tactical choices would be clearer.
A subsequent 2020 GE in those circumstances might deliver a result.
I have not heard that and has Corbyn's office agreed ?
Dear god man if that is not evidence of the elite what on earth is?
Plus Cameron and Osborne.
You can add the failed bankers and the incompetent Sir Humphreys.
When was it last different ? Admiral Byng perhaps ?
https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1168445170741850112?s=20