I think Boris is getting a sharp lesson tonight in not having it all his own way.
His disdain for people whose votes he needs has resulted in a worse-than-inevitable defeat in the HoC, which may be a useful take-out for him ahead of a general election campaign. He’ll probably have most of the (sizeable) Farage crowd eating from his hand, but a lot of moderate, business-minded people will not feel obliged to meet him halfway.
Meanwhile, the HoC looks like treating him in much the way a cat does a captive mouse. Not willing to kill him off because it gets more utility from a still-wriggling near-corpse.
Again this must have been entirely expected from the moment he started talking about "do or die" on 31st October. Sooner or later it was going to come to the crunch when this Parliament would vote to take no deal of the table.
If he'd wanted to compromise he could have done. This is entirely what was expected to happen and its now Parliament Vs The Poeple and Parliament has written his script for him.
You may be right. His calculation may be that he can do without every single member of the 48pc, and pushing them out of the “reasonable, respect the vote” crowd is worth it.
But he’s also writing a script for the section of The People who will organise tactical voting, and talk up the sort of Project Fear about him that Tories do about Corbyn. I don’t think Corbyn will win an overall majority for a minute (nor that this would be a bad thing for Brexit!). But an SNP whitewash in Scotland and big LD gains in England leaves the possibility of a freshly-mandated majority for far less Brexit than TM or BJ planned. In which circumstances, his desire to grind his opponents into the ground might look like a mistake.
1) Tonight’s vote was a “confidence” motion, so the whip should be withdrawn from the rebels, unlike those who voted against the WA, but that the Prime Minister doesn’t have to resign having lost it
2) The Conservative & Unionist Party is the “anti-establishment” party.
Can we please have an election so that we have resolution one way or another.
A GE atm would see us right back to where we started ie stalemate.
Most likely not. The parties this time around would be elected under such terms that one has to consider it likely that a majority either to prosecute Brexit or to wriggle out of it would emerge.
Jezza still gets to befuddle. Vote for us for a Labour deal.
If there's a Labour majority then we'll all have more important things to worry about than Brexit! In any event, you can imagine their endgame being a second referendum under loaded terms (Labour's very much like May's deal versus Remain,) and if Labour's well short of a majority - which seems far more likely - then they'll have to rely on the SNP and/or Lib Dems and an unpicking of Brexit, one way or another, is guaranteed.
Sounds good to me! happy to push leaflets for it.
Labour minority government and a May vs Remain referendum is the ideal scenario. Bring it on.
Cummings bawling at Jezza from the pavement to agree to a general election smacks of panic to me. I think Cummings has released that all his chicanery about proroguing and the FTPA has given Jezza the perfect excuse to tell Boris where to stick his GE.
The Leadsom subplot is curious - her assertion that the rebels wouldn't lose the Tory whip was proved wrong within minutes. Perhaps she should resign...
1) Tonight’s vote was a “confidence” motion, so the whip should be withdrawn from the rebels, unlike those who voted against the WA, but that the Prime Minister doesn’t have to resign having lost it
2) The Conservative & Unionist Party is the “anti-establishment” party.
Wow.
You missed the best one of all...
3). Jacob Rees-Mogg is a Northern working-class hero
Cummings bawling at Jezza from the pavement to agree to a general election smacks of panic to me. I think Cummings has released that all his chicanery about proroguing and the FTPA has given Jezza the perfect excuse to tell Boris where to stick his GE.
Er, Corbyn has just agreed to a GE, as soon as the Surrender Bill passes
It would be ironic if the only way Boris gets his Brexit majority is by Scotland leaving.
Scotland won't leave in time to save Boris...
One of the great ironies of the SNP helping to keep the UK in the EU, if that is indeed what happens in the end, is that it will make independence a harder sell for them. Having spent so long in a state of extreme agitation over Scotland departing the EU, how are they going to sell a policy that would necessarily involve Scotland departing the EU?
It would be ridiculous indeed if, a few years down the line, England was still in the EU having voted to leave, whereas Scotland wasn't despite wanting to stay.
What Labour really need to do is find a way to get the election called for post October 31st, meaning the extension legislation will have to be used, and the do or die deadline passes, and with it any credibility Boris has left. Could proroguing parliament actually help here? Just need to avoid having an election vote before next week, then can't have one until afterward in October.
Cummings bawling at Jezza from the pavement to agree to a general election smacks of panic to me. I think Cummings has released that all his chicanery about proroguing and the FTPA has given Jezza the perfect excuse to tell Boris where to stick his GE.
Er, Corbyn has just agreed to a GE, as soon as the Surrender Bill passes
Cummings bawling at Jezza from the pavement to agree to a general election smacks of panic to me. I think Cummings has released that all his chicanery about proroguing and the FTPA has given Jezza the perfect excuse to tell Boris where to stick his GE.
Er, Corbyn has just agreed to a GE, as soon as the Surrender Bill passes
More rebels will need to be deselected tomorrow, I reckon.
(By 'rebels', I of course mean loyal Conservatives with many years of service to the party and country).
Yes. I did wonder whether the Theresa May subplot might be that she doesn't support the Order Paper motion, but does vote against No Deal. That would be consistent with what we know of her, and also the Banter Heuristic.
Good. If we are to have realignment, let’s get on with it. Enough faffing. WE DON’T HAVE ANY TIME LEFT
Kaboom! Boris goes down in history as splitting the broad church conservatives.
It will not end well in the long term.
Kaboom! Boris unites the vast majority of Leave voters behind the Tories while the diehard Remainers are split down the middle.
The people being kicked out of the party represent Tory Remain voters who have been loyal thus far. You can’t afford to lose them.
They might be able to afford it. Depends how the expelled now react, and whether Boris has convinced enough leavers he means business yet, and whether that is all they will care about.
The next UK opinion polls are going to be incredibly interesting - and maybe v v important. How will the voters react?
So hard to call.
I think the Tories will still be comfortably ahead, but also that tactical anti-Tory voting is now going to be commonplace. We've seen several examples here of posters who were never-Corbyn who are going to vote Labour tactically, and I know several Labour people who are going to vote LibDem, in some cases in a quiet agreement with someone in another seat going the other way. The Johnson/Cummings assault has pushed the opposition parties much closer together.
Yeah, just like every other political development for the last seven years.
Listen, I hate to break it to you, but when it comes to matters of sovereignty the Scottish electorate are cuckolds. They voted for Union cuckoldry in 2014 and they voted for supranational cuckoldry in 2016. I can only think of a handful of countries that have eschewed independence when it's been offered at the ballot box, and north of the border you've done it twice in thirty months.
What makes you think that there's any possibility of Scotland voting to leave the UK outside the EU?
Yeah, just like every other political development for the last seven years.
Listen, I hate to break it to you, but when it comes to matters of sovereignty the Scottish electorate are cuckolds. They voted for Union cuckoldry in 2014 and they voted for supranational cuckoldry in 2016. I can only think of a handful of countries that have eschewed independence when it's been offered at the ballot box, and north of the border you've done it twice in thirty months.
What makes you think that there's any possibility of Scotland voting to leave the UK outside the EU?
I'm absolutely heart broken that Kenneth Clarke has been kicked out of the Tory party, nearly fifty years of service in Parliament, over 25 years on the front bench.
He was the greatest Chancellor of my lifetime, and one of the main reasons I'm a Conservative and joined the Tory party.
Not regretting my resignation, but regretting that it has come to this for Ken.
More rebels will need to be deselected tomorrow, I reckon.
(By 'rebels', I of course mean loyal Conservatives with many years of service to the party and country).
Doesn't matter how many years of service to the party and country you have if you vote against on a confidence matter does it?
Oh, quite. Rees-Mogg, Steve Baker, Boris and the rest of the nutjobs should have been sacked by Theresa May. Unfortunately she didn't have the numbers or support to do so, but nor does Boris.
What Labour really need to do is =1find a way to get the election called for post October 31st, meaning the extension legislation will have to be used, and the do or die deadline passes, and with it any credibility Boris has left. Could proroguing parliament actually help here? Just need to avoid having a tué Bill passed and an election vote before next week, then can't have one until afterward in October.
This may be a minority view on here but I think in a GE campaign Corbyn would run rings round Johnson. Tonite's exhibition rather confirmed that belief.
I think we've all now seen the emperor without his clothes. A lot of us thought that's what we'd see. Others were more easily fooled. Getting rid of him is now more pressing than any reservation about Corbyn
I'm absolutely heart broken that Kenneth Clarke has been kicked out of the Tory party, nearly fifty years of service in Parliament, over 25 years on the front bench.
He was the greatest Chancellor of my lifetime, and one of the main reasons I'm a Conservative and joined the Tory party.
Not regretting my resignation, but regretting that it has come to this for Ken.
I expect he'll take it in his stride. His sense of perspective is unrivalled.
The truly interesting thing coming out of tonight is whether the Yellow Peril and Labour agree to stand down in winnable seats for each other in a remainer deal and the same for a Tory/BXP deal for leavers. Whoever manages to do so will, in my opinion, win a GE with a large majority. I suspect the latter is more likely as BXP are only in it for Brexit whereas the LDs (in the smaller party situation on the other side) will want to have clear blue water between themselves and Mr. Corbyn.
Cummings bawling at Jezza from the pavement to agree to a general election smacks of panic to me. I think Cummings has released that all his chicanery about proroguing and the FTPA has given Jezza the perfect excuse to tell Boris where to stick his GE.
Er, Corbyn has just agreed to a GE, as soon as the Surrender Bill passes
Which could be Friday - Oct 15th here we come.
The Facebook ads are targeted and booked.
Targetted adds to Tory Remainers and soft-Brexiters: "Feck off!"
Boris has done the unthinkable with his constitutional games - he’s kickstarted the unification of the left.
He has clearly reunited the Labour Party.
No he hasn't, 17 Labour MPs have just proposed an amendment tomorrow to defy Corbyn and back May's Withdrawal Agreement
And what do you expect those Labour MPs to do tomorrow if said amendment fails? Only 5-6 of them voted for the WA previously, so will they and the rest fall behind the Labour position if it is that or no deal? Clearly they are not that concerned with passing the deal given they avoided it three times.
More rebels will need to be deselected tomorrow, I reckon.
(By 'rebels', I of course mean loyal Conservatives with many years of service to the party and country).
Doesn't matter how many years of service to the party and country you have if you vote against on a confidence matter does it?
Oh, quite. Rees-Mogg, Steve Baker, Boris and the rest of the nutjobs should have been sacked by Theresa May. Unfortunately she didn't have the numbers or support to do so, but nor does Boris.
I'm absolutely heart broken that Kenneth Clarke has been kicked out of the Tory party, nearly fifty years of service in Parliament, over 25 years on the front bench.
He was the greatest Chancellor of my lifetime, and one of the main reasons I'm a Conservative and joined the Tory party.
Not regretting my resignation, but regretting that it has come to this for Ken.
The Tories learnt nothing from Labour's travails. The Tories have let a load of Kippers join and elect a total bloody idiot for leader. We'd be better of if both Labour and the Tories kicked the bucket.
I'm absolutely heart broken that Kenneth Clarke has been kicked out of the Tory party, nearly fifty years of service in Parliament, over 25 years on the front bench.
He was the greatest Chancellor of my lifetime, and one of the main reasons I'm a Conservative and joined the Tory party.
Not regretting my resignation, but regretting that it has come to this for Ken.
I expect he'll take it in his stride. His sense of perspective is unrivalled.
Yeah, just like every other political development for the last seven years.
Listen, I hate to break it to you, but when it comes to matters of sovereignty the Scottish electorate are cuckolds. They voted for Union cuckoldry in 2014 and they voted for supranational cuckoldry in 2016. I can only think of a handful of countries that have eschewed independence when it's been offered at the ballot box, and north of the border you've done it twice in thirty months.
What makes you think that there's any possibility of Scotland voting to leave the UK outside the EU?
How horribly offensive.
With all of the overblown and violent rhetoric on here recently, I've been waiting for people to start using the "cuck" word. I see the sewer mentality of Twitter is now fully established here. Depressing.
The next UK opinion polls are going to be incredibly interesting - and maybe v v important. How will the voters react?
So hard to call.
I think the Tories will still be comfortably ahead, but also that tactical anti-Tory voting is now going to be commonplace. We've seen several examples here of posters who were never-Corbyn who are going to vote Labour tactically, and I know several Labour people who are going to vote LibDem, in some cases in a quiet agreement with someone in another seat going the other way. The Johnson/Cummings assault has pushed the opposition parties much closer together.
Yes, agreed. BUT I cannot see a formal alliance, between the SNP, LDs and Lab. That means the “Remain” vote will be horribly split, still. And will be split during the GE.
So it all comes down to the right/Leave vote. Will BXPers rally behind Boris? If they do, he could still emerge the hero (until apocalyptic No Deal etc).
I remember when we all fainted at the idea of a Clegg Cameron coalition.. Never such innocence again.
No, Rees Mogg a Patriot unlike MPs like Turley showing true arrogance, entitlement, disrespect and contempt for the will of the people
Rees Mogg has no notion of true patriotism. He is the richest, most privileged cartoon character in the world.
Rees Mogg now has far more in common with the average working class Leave voter than the likes of you do
Bless you!
Judging by the sheer nastiness of some of the leaver commentators tonight I think it's safe to say this is not going well for them HYUFD sounds more barking by the day.
And then those he was speaking to beat him through extremely convoluted means - so the message is the political class should continue to resist the WA because something else will come along?
This may be a minority view on here but I think in a GE campaign Corbyn would run rings round Johnson. Tonite's exhibition rather confirmed that belief.
Incredible, isn't it?
Well, love him or loathe him, you have to acknowledge he performed pretty well during theprevious GE. Why would the coming one be any different?
May campaigned poorly, but I don't anticipate Boris being any better and he has some truly awful history that can be exploited by the Opposition.
More rebels will need to be deselected tomorrow, I reckon.
(By 'rebels', I of course mean loyal Conservatives with many years of service to the party and country).
Doesn't matter how many years of service to the party and country you have if you vote against on a confidence matter does it?
Oh, quite. Rees-Mogg, Steve Baker, Boris and the rest of the nutjobs should have been sacked by Theresa May. Unfortunately she didn't have the numbers or support to do so, but nor does Boris.
No May didn't have the self-confidence to do it because she flunked the General Election once already. Had she not screwed that up she could and probably should have made the issue a matter of confidence and gone to the polls if need be with a slate of MPs and PPCs prepared to back her deal. She didn't though.
21 MPs have chosen to lose the whip tonight, their choice. So be it. 28 hardworking Conservative MPs with service to the party and country lost their seats due to May's hubris and arrogance in 2017.
Yeah, just like every other political development for the last seven years.
Listen, I hate to break it to you, but when it comes to matters of sovereignty the Scottish electorate are cuckolds. They voted for Union cuckoldry in 2014 and they voted for supranational cuckoldry in 2016. I can only think of a handful of countries that have eschewed independence when it's been offered at the ballot box, and north of the border you've done it twice in thirty months.
What makes you think that there's any possibility of Scotland voting to leave the UK outside the EU?
You're ranting at someone who isn't Scottish or lives there, which is a metaphor for something I guess.
The next UK opinion polls are going to be incredibly interesting - and maybe v v important. How will the voters react?
So hard to call.
I think the Tories will still be comfortably ahead, but also that tactical anti-Tory voting is now going to be commonplace. We've seen several examples here of posters who were never-Corbyn who are going to vote Labour tactically, and I know several Labour people who are going to vote LibDem, in some cases in a quiet agreement with someone in another seat going the other way. The Johnson/Cummings assault has pushed the opposition parties much closer together.
More rebels will need to be deselected tomorrow, I reckon.
(By 'rebels', I of course mean loyal Conservatives with many years of service to the party and country).
Doesn't matter how many years of service to the party and country you have if you vote against on a confidence matter does it?
Oh, quite. Rees-Mogg, Steve Baker, Boris and the rest of the nutjobs should have been sacked by Theresa May. Unfortunately she didn't have the numbers or support to do so, but nor does Boris.
And yet he is doing it anyway and rightfully so. If only May had shown that sort of bottle we might not be in this mess.
Yeah, just like every other political development for the last seven years.
Listen, I hate to break it to you, but when it comes to matters of sovereignty the Scottish electorate are cuckolds. They voted for Union cuckoldry in 2014 and they voted for supranational cuckoldry in 2016. I can only think of a handful of countries that have eschewed independence when it's been offered at the ballot box, and north of the border you've done it twice in thirty months.
What makes you think that there's any possibility of Scotland voting to leave the UK outside the EU?
No, the UK is done. It is just a matter of timing now.
Brexit has created such a schism between England and Scotland and England that the Union is over, even if we Remain.
More rebels will need to be deselected tomorrow, I reckon.
(By 'rebels', I of course mean loyal Conservatives with many years of service to the party and country).
Doesn't matter how many years of service to the party and country you have if you vote against on a confidence matter does it?
Oh, quite. Rees-Mogg, Steve Baker, Boris and the rest of the nutjobs should have been sacked by Theresa May. Unfortunately she didn't have the numbers or support to do so, but nor does Boris.
No May didn't have the self-confidence to do it because she flunked the General Election once already. Had she not screwed that up she could and probably should have made the issue a matter of confidence and gone to the polls if need be with a slate of MPs and PPCs prepared to back her deal. She didn't though.
21 MPs have chosen to lose the whip tonight, their choice. So be it. 28 hardworking Conservative MPs with service to the party and country lost their seats due to May's hubris and arrogance in 2017.
Good. If we are to have realignment, let’s get on with it. Enough faffing. WE DON’T HAVE ANY TIME LEFT
Kaboom! Boris goes down in history as splitting the broad church conservatives.
It will not end well in the long term.
Kaboom! Boris unites the vast majority of Leave voters behind the Tories while the diehard Remainers are split down the middle.
If a footie team finished bottom of the league the manager and bad players would be out on their ear.
The Cons have changed their manager now the duff big time players have sold themselves to Rochdale.
I really don'r think that that's how the average punter is going to see the likes of Rory Stewart, Ken Clarke, Justine Greening and Philip Hammond being kicked out of the Conservative Party.
Comments
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1169007857884454914?s=21
Torys approx 290, Dup 10
Lab, SNP, LD, Green, PC approx 300
If the independents, remain tories and cUK balance each other out seems pretty close.
But he’s also writing a script for the section of The People who will organise tactical voting, and talk up the sort of Project Fear about him that Tories do about Corbyn. I don’t think Corbyn will win an overall majority for a minute (nor that this would be a bad thing for Brexit!). But an SNP whitewash in Scotland and big LD gains in England leaves the possibility of a freshly-mandated majority for far less Brexit than TM or BJ planned. In which circumstances, his desire to grind his opponents into the ground might look like a mistake.
Please form an orderly queue to buy me and BJO a pint...
1) Tonight’s vote was a “confidence” motion, so the whip should be withdrawn from the rebels, unlike those who voted against the WA, but that the Prime Minister doesn’t have to resign having lost it
2) The Conservative & Unionist Party is the “anti-establishment” party.
Wow.
The Cons have changed their manager now the duff big time players have sold themselves to Rochdale.
So hard to call.
https://twitter.com/PSCupdates/status/1168483021181333504?s=19
3). Jacob Rees-Mogg is a Northern working-class hero
Is that tactics too?
(By 'rebels', I of course mean loyal Conservatives with many years of service to the party and country).
Presumably that FTPA motion can't be debated tomorrow because the HoC is taking control.
It would be ridiculous indeed if, a few years down the line, England was still in the EU having voted to leave, whereas Scotland wasn't despite wanting to stay.
The Facebook ads are targeted and booked.
Listen, I hate to break it to you, but when it comes to matters of sovereignty the Scottish electorate are cuckolds. They voted for Union cuckoldry in 2014 and they voted for supranational cuckoldry in 2016. I can only think of a handful of countries that have eschewed independence when it's been offered at the ballot box, and north of the border you've done it twice in thirty months.
What makes you think that there's any possibility of Scotland voting to leave the UK outside the EU?
He was the greatest Chancellor of my lifetime, and one of the main reasons I'm a Conservative and joined the Tory party.
Not regretting my resignation, but regretting that it has come to this for Ken.
I think you will find 100% of Conservative MPs voted with the whip tonight. The party is united.
Truly the shark has been jumped several times.
So it all comes down to the right/Leave vote. Will BXPers rally behind Boris? If they do, he could still emerge the hero (until apocalyptic No Deal etc).
I remember when we all fainted at the idea of a Clegg Cameron coalition.. Never such innocence again.
May campaigned poorly, but I don't anticipate Boris being any better and he has some truly awful history that can be exploited by the Opposition.
He can't be looking forward to it.
21 MPs have chosen to lose the whip tonight, their choice. So be it.
28 hardworking Conservative MPs with service to the party and country lost their seats due to May's hubris and arrogance in 2017.
I know which annoys me more.
He won't win tomorrow.
the only vote he may win as PM is the one removing him from office.
Quite an achievement
-- Boris Johnson
Brexit has created such a schism between England and Scotland and England that the Union is over, even if we Remain.
I really don'r think that that's how the average punter is going to see the likes of Rory Stewart, Ken Clarke, Justine Greening and Philip Hammond being kicked out of the Conservative Party.