I think 17th October would still be viable if the House votes for an election on Monday?
Gods, can they not hurry it up and do it tomorrow? I won't say I'm too busy for this as it is clearly not the case, but the anticipation is killing me.
I wonder which part of the wargame plans included this possibility?
Plenty, Boris could be Leader of the Opposition and largest party with Leavers united behind him against a Remain coup to deny Brexit and the weakest most disunited government in history with nothing in common apart from opposing the will of the people
I wonder which part of the wargame plans included this possibility?
Plenty, Boris could be Leader of the Opposition and largest party with Leavers united behind him against a Remain coup to deny Brexit and the weakest most disunited government in history with nothing in common apart from opposing the will of the people
While I don't think the plan, even if accounting for this loss tonight, is going well for BoJo, some people may be setting themselves up for a grand fall if the convoluted plotting of him and Cummings pays off. Equivocate people!
The madness was to think any Con leader this summer could go on until 2022 - was rooked from the start.
An election - well framed - as per now - was the only chance.
A huge gamble - today brings the denouement closer.
Now, Lucy is generally an idiot, but if even she has worked out that BoZo demonstrably doesn't have the confidence of the House, others will notice too...
While I don't think the plan, even if accounting for this loss tonight, is going well for BoJo, some people may be setting themselves up for a grand fall if the convoluted plotting of him and Cummings pays off. Equivocate people!
The way I look at it is if we are going to no deal, better it is with a Tory majority in 4 months time than in one month with a hung parliament.
There are no good outcomes, but the outcomes are slightly better this evening than they were before the half hearted prorogation showed the PM lacked the courage to go for no deal at the end of October.
I wonder which part of the wargame plans included this possibility?
Plenty, Boris could be Leader of the Opposition and largest party with Leavers united behind him against a Remain coup to deny Brexit and the weakest most disunited government in history with nothing in common apart from opposing the will of the people
While I don't think the plan, even if accounting for this loss tonight, is going well for BoJo, some people may be setting themselves up for a grand fall if the convoluted plotting of him and Cummings pays off. Equivocate people!
What’ll win the Tories the election is who they are up against. Corbyn remains their strongest weapon.
This is excellent tactics by Boris, tonight in prime time on BBC1 and ITV and the news channels all the coverage was of Boris promising to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal and of Corbyn committing to try and ban No Deal Brexit and extend again, costing him potentially millions of Labour Leave voters in the process whether to the Tories or the Brexit Party
If that is true, and I’m not saying it isn’t, is it important to now secure that election soonest to cash in on the moment? How long does such a moment last until it’s replaced by another moment, such as the moment Boris will find himself in next month if there isn’t a GE?
Boris will propose an election tomorrow, he is no coward, Corbyn may well be though
Overused though it is in politics, I can understand calling Corbyn a coward now he prevents an election till the new year, feb March earliest. But the fact is, having Johnson trapped powerless in a sort of vacuum that doubles as a credibility shredding machine, Corbyn wouldn’t now call an election even if he wasn’t a coward? He would be daft to wouldn’t he?
Either the way you still haven’t answered the question. Denied an election till next year by the coalitions ftpa where does Boris credibility go in the coming weeks. By the time that election now comes, what will the polls look like?
Q1. Prime Minister, exactly how fucked are you now?
Corbyn: Bearing in mind the grave crisis this country faces, I would like to ask about rural bus service cuts in Derbyshire.
+1 I could genuinely see this happening
If it does, my respect for him, as a possessor of comic timing at least, will increase immensely. He can play it off as a confidence thing afterwards - this government is such a shambles I didn't even need to use all my questions on Brexit, I wanted him to sit there, dreading the question not knowing when I would let loose.
We have been here. Corbyn will not let anyone else be the PM of GNU, and the LDs will not support him.
But now the LDs don't have the "Tory rebels"
The like of Gawke and Hammond, having pushed this Bill through, won’t enable Corbyn. Not would Soubry etc. and there’s no need for Swinson to. There’ll be an election soon enough and she doesn’t that in her southern seats.
I wonder which part of the wargame plans included this possibility?
Plenty, Boris could be Leader of the Opposition and largest party with Leavers united behind him against a Remain coup to deny Brexit and the weakest most disunited government in history with nothing in common apart from opposing the will of the people
This will quicky gain momentum as an alternative to an election. What has Boris done......
I rather doubt the Tory rebels will abstain.
Ken Clarke has said if needed he will vote for Corbyn. What price he becomes the leader of that gang?
For the last few months people have said Tories wont vote against their party. They said that if the Tories ask for an election they get it without delay.
It is time people realise no deal isnt happening under this parliament whatever games the PM tries to play. If he pushes the limits further then the rebel Tories will allow Corbyn to take over and get royal consent.
Once you cross the threshold and end your political career by taking one action, other actions previously considered impossible to contemplate might well seem more reasonable.
I wonder now whether Cummings will make a tactical retreat from the call for a general election given it's clear the opposition will pass the legislation first? There's only so much that can be gained by engineering another defeat.
Either way, an election before the end of October is almost certain, but instead it will be approved early next week. It's the only card Johnson has left after losing 22 Conservative MPs in a day, one way or another. And better that it is called for before 31 October than after from his perspective.
Still - the legislation may remain a talking point in the election campaign. If Johnson wins he will be forced to ask for an extension unless he can repeal the law in record time (which seems unlikely given the composition of the Lords).
The government should let the Surrender Bill go through the Commons and Lords with no delays and then send it to the Queen...
Then get on with the general election.
Make repeal of Parliaments Surrender bill on 16th or 17th October the center piece of their manifetso.
What if Corbyn says "fine, we'll have an election, but the public needs a long campaign to make an informed choice, so we'll amend polling day to December, thanks"?
The government should let the Surrender Bill go through the Commons and Lords with no delays and then send it to the Queen...
Then get on with the general election.
Make repeal of Parliaments Surrender bill on 16th or 17th October the center piece of their manifetso.
They couldn’t repeal it before the new Parliament sits, though. That won’t happen for a while.
If the election is on Monday 14th October there's nothing to stop a sitting pf Parliament to repeal the surrender bill on Wednesday 16th October is there?
They went into liquidation. Anyone know who Cummings is using now?
Are the same "brains" not running under a new name?
No idea. What they were doing was clever, and legal, if underhand. You'd think somebody else would have picked up from where they left off.
The parent company plead guilty to breaking UK election law so doubt it was fully legal.
Didn't they do that just to avoid answering more awkward questions?
I dont know, if that were true then perhaps those questions might relate to other illegality? Generally if someone pleads guilty I assume their actions were not legal, of course that will not be correct 100% of the time, but it should be reasonably close.
The government should let the Surrender Bill go through the Commons and Lords with no delays and then send it to the Queen...
Then get on with the general election.
Make repeal of Parliaments Surrender bill on 16th or 17th October the center piece of their manifetso.
They couldn’t repeal it before the new Parliament sits, though. That won’t happen for a while.
If the election is on Monday 14th October there's nothing to stop a sitting pf Parliament to repeal the surrender bill on Wednesday 16th October is there?
Lots. You'd have to swear them in and have a Queen's speech. Ditto the Lords.
Playing with the Scotland figures, its about a 2% swing to get to 5 seats for the blues which would also add fife ne to the Lib rally. If these %s maintain into a campaign I'd think team blue would be looking at maybe 6 they feel they could hold on a good day - the borders and 3 fishing facing seats in the NE perhaps? Labour look shot and the LDs will focus on holding 4 and target Fife. SNP will go for the lot and at 40 plus will surely get close to 50
They went into liquidation. Anyone know who Cummings is using now?
Are the same "brains" not running under a new name?
No idea. What they were doing was clever, and legal, if underhand. You'd think somebody else would have picked up from where they left off.
The parent company plead guilty to breaking UK election law so doubt it was fully legal.
Didn't they do that just to avoid answering more awkward questions?
I dont know, if that were true then perhaps those questions might relate to other illegality? Generally if someone pleads guilty I assume their actions were not legal, of course that will not be correct 100% of the time, but it should be reasonably close.
I really don't know but I have noted no reincarnation of CA, yet I cannot believe Cummings is running the Johnson operation without some such support.
If Corbyn is smart enough (yes, i know) he can let BoZo destroy all of his USP before any election campaign.
If Johnson just refuses to ask for an extension, insisting it will wait until after an election, what happens? It goes to court of course, but what is the remedy from a judge's perspective?
Considering I was expecting a 4-6 point lead for Yes, 51% for No is actually somewhat of a relief. Interesting to see that more Scots are inclined to think PM Corbyn would be helpful to the Yes campaign than those who think he'd be an asset for the union. Suggests independence inclined voters think he'd be as effective as campaigning for the union as he was for the EU.
If Corbyn is smart enough (yes, i know) he can let BoZo destroy all of his USP before any election campaign.
If Johnson just refuses to ask for an extension, insisting it will wait until after an election, what happens? It goes to court of course, but what is the remedy from a judge's perspective?
The government should let the Surrender Bill go through the Commons and Lords with no delays and then send it to the Queen...
Then get on with the general election.
Make repeal of Parliaments Surrender bill on 16th or 17th October the center piece of their manifetso.
They couldn’t repeal it before the new Parliament sits, though. That won’t happen for a while.
If the election is on Monday 14th October there's nothing to stop a sitting pf Parliament to repeal the surrender bill on Wednesday 16th October is there?
Lots. You'd have to swear them in and have a Queen's speech. Ditto the Lords.
Although a working majority would make the EU aware of the electorates wishes and they would likely not offer an extension if the new government is on a no deal if no movement on the 17th ticket
Dominic Grieve clearly channelling what Egg said yesterday. So that’s Egg’s man of the people credentials pretty much fried then. 🍳
Egg No deal is certainly not the end of it. It is not closure and move on. No deal is not actually an answer to anything, it’s a billboard to the world of our failure to achieve the answer. A symbol of failure etched forever into British history. Because ultimately what hurts UK from No Deal is not just the indelible impact on our farming and other industry and business in the painful fast forward to global Britain, but the political crisis in Britain extending into the longer term, because we wouldn’t be able to get EU to table and compromise without ourselves climbing down and sucking down exactly what they are currently asking from us. In other words, just as May and the Conservative moderates explained, we can only achieve leave deal with EU by making a compromise, by facing up to compromise, and its damn harder for us to make that compromise after a no deal Brexit. We will become even more firmly stuck in a political crisis that impacts EU to far lesser degree.
Greive [If we crash out of the bloc] it’s not going to be over, is it? The moment we leave the EU, every single sinew of the UK government machine will be dedicated to trying to do a deal, a trade deal with the EU from the outside. It is going to take up every week, month, day of our working lives for the next five to 10 years, and we’re going to be negotiating from a position of maximum weakness and disadvantage.
I don’t agree with Grieve on lotta stuff, but I clearly do on this. No Deal actually means a failure. A failure to be able to compromise and close a deal. No deal is different from Brexit that was on the ballot in the referendum because it highlights the reasons we can’t leave with a deal. The Conservative Party is wedded to No Deal not to apply pressure in the negotiation (that suggestion less credible by the day), they are driven by fear not for national interest but of The Party losing out to Farage the longer this moves from 2016 without delivering a meaningful Brexit. That’s right isn’t it? The Fear of Tory leaders and business managers of euro scepticism in and outside acting upon their party from Cameron to Boris that created this political crisis. Cameron’s gamble was he could crush it for a generation by winning a ref with a project fear. In Boris mind is exactly what HY has been posting for us, no meaningful brexit, Farage sucks from the Tory Party just like image of a black hole devouring a sun.
So its a policy driven by fear, highlighting an inability to compromise and achieve an important deal, to no deal outcome putting Britain at maximum weakness and disadvantage in this world for years to come.
Playing with the Scotland figures, its about a 2% swing to get to 5 seats for the blues which would also add fife ne to the Lib rally. If these %s maintain into a campaign I'd think team blue would be looking at maybe 6 they feel they could hold on a good day - the borders and 3 fishing facing seats in the NE perhaps? Labour look shot and the LDs will focus on holding 4 and target Fife. SNP will go for the lot and at 40 plus will surely get close to 50
Fife NE unionist tactical vote would secure it for the Tories. Depends how cross everyone is about Europe/Boris, though.
Seats along the border to hold, but the SNP will throw everything at DCT to try and unseat Fluffy Mundell.
Whether or not you agree with them, do you think MPs and politicians who OPPOSE leaving the EU without a deal are behaving in a way that respects British democracy?
Whether or not you agree with them, do you think MPs and politicians who OPPOSE leaving the EU without a deal are behaving in a way that respects British democracy?
Are 27 Are Not 49
And there's the thing the rebels dont get. Boris the insurgent. Its madness but it might just work
Whether or not you agree with them, do you think MPs and politicians who OPPOSE leaving the EU without a deal are behaving in a way that respects British democracy?
The government should let the Surrender Bill go through the Commons and Lords with no delays and then send it to the Queen...
Then get on with the general election.
Make repeal of Parliaments Surrender bill on 16th or 17th October the center piece of their manifetso.
They couldn’t repeal it before the new Parliament sits, though. That won’t happen for a while.
If the election is on Monday 14th October there's nothing to stop a sitting pf Parliament to repeal the surrender bill on Wednesday 16th October is there?
A lot of the results will not be known until 15th. Then PM needs to meet the Queen. MPs sworn in. Speaker needs to be elected. The Parliamentary schedule needs to be decided. Plus dozens of other things. Maybe even a Queen’s speech?
Whether or not you agree with them, do you think MPs and politicians who OPPOSE leaving the EU without a deal are behaving in a way that respects British democracy?
Are 27 Are Not 49
Few things. 1. you’ve ignored ‘don’t knows’ and 2, from the same poll
Whether or not you agree with them, do you think MPs and politicians who SUPPORT leaving the EU without a deal are behaving in a way that respects British democracy?
Comments
Edit: Crap, signed in with the wrong account.
An election - well framed - as per now - was the only chance.
A huge gamble - today brings the denouement closer.
https://twitter.com/MarcWillcox/status/1168609327923507200?s=20
Now, Lucy is generally an idiot, but if even she has worked out that BoZo demonstrably doesn't have the confidence of the House, others will notice too...
There are no good outcomes, but the outcomes are slightly better this evening than they were before the half hearted prorogation showed the PM lacked the courage to go for no deal at the end of October.
Dark?
The racism is worse than we imagined!
I could genuinely see this happening
Then get on with the general election.
Make repeal of Parliaments Surrender bill on 16th or 17th October the center piece of their manifetso.
Either the way you still haven’t answered the question. Denied an election till next year by the coalitions ftpa where does Boris credibility go in the coming weeks. By the time that election now comes, what will the polls look like?
If Corbyn is smart enough (yes, i know) he can let BoZo destroy all of his USP before any election campaign.
For the last few months people have said Tories wont vote against their party. They said that if the Tories ask for an election they get it without delay.
It is time people realise no deal isnt happening under this parliament whatever games the PM tries to play. If he pushes the limits further then the rebel Tories will allow Corbyn to take over and get royal consent.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169023852598505489?s=21
I wonder now whether Cummings will make a tactical retreat from the call for a general election given it's clear the opposition will pass the legislation first? There's only so much that can be gained by engineering another defeat.
Either way, an election before the end of October is almost certain, but instead it will be approved early next week. It's the only card Johnson has left after losing 22 Conservative MPs in a day, one way or another. And better that it is called for before 31 October than after from his perspective.
Still - the legislation may remain a talking point in the election campaign. If Johnson wins he will be forced to ask for an extension unless he can repeal the law in record time (which seems unlikely given the composition of the Lords).
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1169024647435902976?s=20
I'm like a living fossil.
I thought from the headline it was 48-52, i.e. Scots think Boris is helpful to the union.
Some mornings I have doubts about the living part.
That’a why it doesn’t matter if a Boris majority repeals it.
Corbyn is far more unpopular in Scotland than Boris is too on that poll
Interesting to see that more Scots are inclined to think PM Corbyn would be helpful to the Yes campaign than those who think he'd be an asset for the union. Suggests independence inclined voters think he'd be as effective as campaigning for the union as he was for the EU.
Highest Con and Lab and lowest LD since Johnson became Con leader.
Con 35 (+2)
Lab 25 (+3)
LD 16 (-5)
Brexit 11 (-1)
Green 7 (uc)
SNP 4 (uc)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/c68uv1jm1d/TheTimes_190903_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
Egg
No deal is certainly not the end of it. It is not closure and move on. No deal is not actually an answer to anything, it’s a billboard to the world of our failure to achieve the answer. A symbol of failure etched forever into British history. Because ultimately what hurts UK from No Deal is not just the indelible impact on our farming and other industry and business in the painful fast forward to global Britain, but the political crisis in Britain extending into the longer term, because we wouldn’t be able to get EU to table and compromise without ourselves climbing down and sucking down exactly what they are currently asking from us. In other words, just as May and the Conservative moderates explained, we can only achieve leave deal with EU by making a compromise, by facing up to compromise, and its damn harder for us to make that compromise after a no deal Brexit. We will become even more firmly stuck in a political crisis that impacts EU to far lesser degree.
Greive
[If we crash out of the bloc] it’s not going to be over, is it? The moment we leave the EU, every single sinew of the UK government machine will be dedicated to trying to do a deal, a trade deal with the EU from the outside. It is going to take up every week, month, day of our working lives for the next five to 10 years, and we’re going to be negotiating from a position of maximum weakness and disadvantage.
I don’t agree with Grieve on lotta stuff, but I clearly do on this. No Deal actually means a failure. A failure to be able to compromise and close a deal. No deal is different from Brexit that was on the ballot in the referendum because it highlights the reasons we can’t leave with a deal. The Conservative Party is wedded to No Deal not to apply pressure in the negotiation (that suggestion less credible by the day), they are driven by fear not for national interest but of The Party losing out to Farage the longer this moves from 2016 without delivering a meaningful Brexit. That’s right isn’t it? The Fear of Tory leaders and business managers of euro scepticism in and outside acting upon their party from Cameron to Boris that created this political crisis. Cameron’s gamble was he could crush it for a generation by winning a ref with a project fear. In Boris mind is exactly what HY has been posting for us, no meaningful brexit, Farage sucks from the Tory Party just like image of a black hole devouring a sun.
So its a policy driven by fear, highlighting an inability to compromise and achieve an important deal, to no deal outcome putting Britain at maximum weakness and disadvantage in this world for years to come.
Seats along the border to hold, but the SNP will throw everything at DCT to try and unseat Fluffy Mundell.
Whether or not you agree with them, do you think MPs and
politicians who OPPOSE leaving the EU without a deal are
behaving in a way that respects British democracy?
Are 27
Are Not 49
Labour lead 35% to 29% for the Tories in London and 33% to 28% for the Tories in the North (the Brexit Party's highest score is 16% in the North).
23% of 2017 Labour voters oppose further extension to only 13% of 2017 Tories who back further extension
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/c68uv1jm1d/TheTimes_190903_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
35% of 2017 Labour voters believe MPs are not respecting democracy while only 10% of 2017 Tory voters believe they are.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/c68uv1jm1d/TheTimes_190903_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
Whether or not you agree with them, do you think MPs and politicians who SUPPORT leaving the EU without a deal are behaving in a way that respects British democracy?
Are 35
Are Not 41
Don’t know 24
Good.