We now have a good idea about what No Deal is - the govt has prepared the Yellowhammer dossier for us
We now know what a Deal looks like thanks to Mrs May
Surely the way forward now is Revoke A50 and set up a Royal Commission to examine the impacts from the now known positions and then make a recommendation to the country followed by a binary referendum with a 66.7% threshold?
It means that voters would known precisely what the impact will be and no unicorns will be allowed
I'd like to press you to follow through the logic of what you have, correctly, written. Where exactly are the tories going to pick up these extra seats on their lower vote share? Be pragmatic for a moment. That's the point of this excellent TSE thread header. Here are the plausible outcomes:
1. The South
Con to LibDems. Possibly in large numbers.
2. Scotland
Con to everyone else. Probably in large numbers
3. The North
So this is Cummings' brainwave? Weaponise liberal leftie policies like gay and trans rights, pitch at the Labour working class Brexit vote. Even if they did abandon Labour (which I doubt) do we really think that the Labour heartlands are going to fall for Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg over the blokey Nigel Farage?
Labour will perform better than current polling I suspect because all the polls have been conducted in the nexus of Brexit. Amazingly, people will be concerned about loads of other things during the General Election campaign. Brexit will burn brightly at first then fade. It's never really been of that much interest to people outside the right-wing of the tory party. Issues like the NHS, schools, transport, jobs, inflation, climate etc. etc. will be coming to the fore. I cannot see the Johnson Conservatives leading the way on them. Rory Stewart would. But not Johnson.
Labour heartlands won't turn from Labour.
So I reckon the FPTP will work the opposite way from how you think. Because of the geographical nuances, the Conservatives will outperform in vote share their actual share of the seats.
And *sacrilege alert* - I don't know how opinion polls work or find their pollees? Do they stop people as they come out of Wilkos and force them to answer questions on the destiny of the country? Is there not some degree of political engagement or self-selection required and if so how is that weighted down to reflect the rest of the country?
How exactly do labour think they will get the election they say they want if they refuse to vote for it? And how do they honestly think this looks to the electorate?
Inded.
I think we'll see Con 40%+ in the weekend polls.
I think that's entirely possible, yes. That, in turn, will fortify Alexander Boris Falafel Johnson* that his strategy is on the right track.
Remind me what Theresa May was polling before the 2017 election.
Sacrificing some of your MPs make sense if they're never going to vote with you. Like so many things, better out than in.
What if they nearly always vote for you, and have done for decades, and would continue to always vote for you, except on this one issue?
Is this one issue an issue of confidence or not?
Parties should be a broad church but absolutely must come together on issues of confidence.
Even Redwood, Cash and IDS voted through Maastricht when it became a confidence motion. Soames, Hammond etc chose to cross a bridge even Cash wouldn't cross.
It was not a vote of confidence. Tabled by neither the government or the LotO.
It was a matter of confidence. Precisely like many confidence voted by proxy as has occurred in the past. And exactly what I've been saying since May's day needed to be done.
Funny the amount of times I was told you couldn't make an issue a confidence motion post-FTPA! Clearly nonsense as I wrote here all along!
Are we going to see the spectacle of Clarke, Soames et al sat on the opposition benches this lunchtime? Nick Boles contribution to the debate yesterday was "I'm in a party of 1, come and join me".
We now have a good idea about what No Deal is - the govt has prepared the Yellowhammer dossier for us
We now know what a Deal looks like thanks to Mrs May
Surely the way forward now is Revoke A50 and set up a Royal Commission to examine the impacts from the now known positions and then make a recommendation to the country followed by a binary referendum with a 66.7% threshold?
It means that voters would known precisely what the impact will be and no unicorns will be allowed
I don’t get the whole “Brexit will be cancelled” view on here. Seems to me Boris/Cummings have run the entirety of the past 5 weeks to a) win back lost vote to Farage, b) realign the parliamentary party to being Deal or No Deal across the board c) squeeze Labour as hard as possible and setup a straightforward campaign message.
So far they’ve been pretty successful on all counts and this latest reticence by Labour to hold an election only helps further.
Maybe those of you that look much closer and in some cases have much more personal involvement and emotional attachment are right. But the Normals in the Remain camp I speak to think the Lib Dem’s under Swinson are underwhelming and they’re still scared witless of Corbyn. Some say they’ll hold their noises and vote Boris, others are just a bit ragey and I suspect probably won’t vote.
We now have a good idea about what No Deal is - the govt has prepared the Yellowhammer dossier for us
We now know what a Deal looks like thanks to Mrs May
Surely the way forward now is Revoke A50 and set up a Royal Commission to examine the impacts from the now known positions and then make a recommendation to the country followed by a binary referendum with a 66.7% threshold?
It means that voters would known precisely what the impact will be and no unicorns will be allowed
It can say what it likes - the law will have no force if Boris wins a majority in that election.
Not good news for Corbyn if this goes through, as unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.
hmmmm
I think Jezza will make it a bread and butter issue election as its more in tune with the voters. The Tories had better have something similar lined up as Brexit alone wont cut it. See Theresa May.
Yes. And Tories still banging on about BREXIT will remind voters that they’ve failed to implement their one major policy.
Add to that some of Corbyn!s barmier ideas are actually popular.....
What recent events in politics have done is absolutely firmed up our plans as a family for our future.
We're moving to Scotland. I think the UK in its current form is finished, and the nasty bigoted form of English nationalism represented by leave/JRM prostrate isn't something I want my kids to have to live with.
Won't happen straight away, but the seed has been firmly planted
Parties have positions and not all their MPs believe in them, that's normal. The Tories still have *lots* of MPs who don't believe in No Deal but didn't vote with the opposition on that particular motion.
Sure, that's normal most of the time. But "being prepared to tolerate No Deal, if no deal can be found" is plainly going to be the party's fundamental policy at the imminent GE and if MPs cannot - in good conscience - support that, then they should probably not be candidates for the party.
Well that's the Lords finally going to be reformed come the next non-Tory government
Everyone threatens electoral reform until they get in to power. Then they find they like the system that got them there.
That's why I suspect we will get Lords reform - it's less painful than changing our FPTP system..
This talk of Lords Filibuster is surely overdone. If they thwart the Government in this way, the institution is finished. Even fairly wishy washy opponents like me would want it abolished.
They must know that.
It's one reason I'm rapidly distancing myself - perhaps the main reason- from my party, Peter.
As a Conservative I value institutions like the monarchy, the House of Lords and the Union. If the purity of Brexit threatens them then I'm out.
In huge news for geeks, the government looks set to abandon RPI, consulting on effectively redefining it as CPIH from 2025-30. This has implications for things as diverse as private sector pension scheme increases to rail fares to the value of gilts.
It's possibly the most important thing that will be announced today and no one will notice.
Are we going to see the spectacle of Clarke, Soames et al sat on the opposition benches this lunchtime? Nick Boles contribution to the debate yesterday was "I'm in a party of 1, come and join me".
Perhaps they will...
You would expect so and it will be a terrible image for Boris
Unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.
It won't.
It's a General Election and many many topics of interest and concern will come to the fore. Most people are in fact sick of Brexit and fall into two camps. Get the blinking thing done or kick it into touch. Whatever, don't discuss it any more.
NHS, schools, transport, climate, poverty, crime ... these are some of the issues of far more interest and concern to the vast majority of people in this country.
Brexit is boring. Okay, it isn't to me because I'm a political nerd. But I promise you that Brexit is boring for most people. They never were much interested in Europe, and they won't be in the future. This was and always has been an obsession of people like HYUFD. Not the country.
How exactly do labour think they will get the election they say they want if they refuse to vote for it? And how do they honestly think this looks to the electorate?
Inded.
I think we'll see Con 40%+ in the weekend polls.
I think that's entirely possible, yes. That, in turn, will fortify Alexander Boris Falafel Johnson* that his strategy is on the right track.
Remind me what Theresa May was polling before the 2017 election.
In huge news for geeks, the government looks set to abandon RPI, consulting on effectively redefining it as CPIH from 2025-30. This has implications for things as diverse as private sector pension scheme increases to rail fares to the value of gilts.
It's possibly the most important thing that will be announced today and no one will notice.
You get the feeling that the Tory party will wake up at some point realising what the hell it has done to itself. The only question is will it be too late to do anything about it.
In huge news for geeks, the government looks set to abandon RPI, consulting on effectively redefining it as CPIH from 2025-30. This has implications for things as diverse as private sector pension scheme increases to rail fares to the value of gilts.
It's possibly the most important thing that will be announced today and no one will notice.
What will happen to contracted price rises linked to RPI?
Unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.
It won't.
It's a General Election and many many topics of interest and concern will come to the fore. Most people are in fact sick of Brexit and fall into two camps. Get the blinking thing done or kick it into touch. Whatever, don't discuss it any more.
NHS, schools, transport, climate, poverty, crime ... these are some of the issues of far more interest and concern to the vast majority of people in this country.
Brexit is boring. Okay, it isn't to me because I'm a political nerd. But I promise you that Brexit is boring for most people. They never were much interested in Europe, and they won't be in the future. This was and always has been an obsession of people like HYUFD. Not the country.
17 million voted to Leave the EU in 2016 on a higher turnout than any general election for over 25 years.
They will vote for Boris to deliver their will at last
Well that's the Lords finally going to be reformed come the next non-Tory government
Everyone threatens electoral reform until they get in to power. Then they find they like the system that got them there.
That's why I suspect we will get Lords reform - it's less painful than changing our FPTP system..
This talk of Lords Filibuster is surely overdone. If they thwart the Government in this way, the institution is finished. Even fairly wishy washy opponents like me would want it abolished.
They must know that.
Of course, they will not be thwarting "the Government". They will be thwarting a group of procedural manipulators trying to undermine a majority decision in a referendum recognised as binding by the main political parties in Parliament.
They just want this law on the books in case we have another hung parliament or something, obviously if Boris wins the next election he can repeal what he wants.
I don’t get the whole “Brexit will be cancelled” view on here. Seems to me Boris/Cummings have run the entirety of the past 5 weeks to a) win back lost vote to Farage, b) realign the parliamentary party to being Deal or No Deal across the board c) squeeze Labour as hard as possible and setup a straightforward campaign message.
So far they’ve been pretty successful on all counts and this latest reticence by Labour to hold an election only helps further.
Maybe those of you that look much closer and in some cases have much more personal involvement and emotional attachment are right. But the Normals in the Remain camp I speak to think the Lib Dem’s under Swinson are underwhelming and they’re still scared witless of Corbyn. Some say they’ll hold their noises and vote Boris, others are just a bit ragey and I suspect probably won’t vote.
Yup, I agree with all of this. I think the prorogation and removing the whip were both blunders but the overall strategy is sound.
More generally, everybody's getting too elated and/or depressed when each side makes their moves. There are moves, there are counter-moves, it's all still wide open.
What recent events in politics have done is absolutely firmed up our plans as a family for our future.
We're moving to Scotland. I think the UK in its current form is finished, and the nasty bigoted form of English nationalism represented by leave/JRM prostrate isn't something I want my kids to have to live with.
Won't happen straight away, but the seed has been firmly planted
Parties have positions and not all their MPs believe in them, that's normal. The Tories still have *lots* of MPs who don't believe in No Deal but didn't vote with the opposition on that particular motion.
Sure, that's normal most of the time. But "being prepared to tolerate No Deal, if no deal can be found" is plainly going to be the party's fundamental policy at the imminent GE and if MPs cannot - in good conscience - support that, then they should probably not be candidates for the party.
But TP, the Governemt is not trying to find a Deal. We know that. The cat is out of the bag.
What recent events in politics have done is absolutely firmed up our plans as a family for our future.
We're moving to Scotland. I think the UK in its current form is finished, and the nasty bigoted form of English nationalism represented by leave/JRM prostrate isn't something I want my kids to have to live with.
Won't happen straight away, but the seed has been firmly planted
Sacrificing some of your MPs make sense if they're never going to vote with you. Like so many things, better out than in.
What if they nearly always vote for you, and have done for decades, and would continue to always vote for you, except on this one issue?
Is this one issue an issue of confidence or not?
Parties should be a broad church but absolutely must come together on issues of confidence.
Even Redwood, Cash and IDS voted through Maastricht when it became a confidence motion. Soames, Hammond etc chose to cross a bridge even Cash wouldn't cross.
It was not a vote of confidence. Tabled by neither the government or the LotO.
It was a matter of confidence. Precisely like many confidence voted by proxy as has occurred in the past. And exactly what I've been saying since May's day needed to be done.
Funny the amount of times I was told you couldn't make an issue a confidence motion post-FTPA! Clearly nonsense as I wrote here all along!
Let us be clear. Within the HoC there is no such animal as a confidence motion "by proxy". Either an issue is stated as such or not. Edicts from Dominic Cummings have no currency in the chamber.
No member of the government stated the vote was a confidence issue.
Well that's the Lords finally going to be reformed come the next non-Tory government
Everyone threatens electoral reform until they get in to power. Then they find they like the system that got them there.
That's why I suspect we will get Lords reform - it's less painful than changing our FPTP system..
This talk of Lords Filibuster is surely overdone. If they thwart the Government in this way, the institution is finished. Even fairly wishy washy opponents like me would want it abolished.
They must know that.
Of course, they will not be thwarting "the Government". They will be thwarting a group of procedural manipulators trying to undermine a majority decision in a referendum.
I'd say all bets are off.
By the time this is finished a lot of flaws in our Political systems will have been identified and there will be a lot of pressure to resolve those flaws.
It's highly likely lords reform will be being added to that list today.
I'd like to press you to follow through the logic of what you have, correctly, written. Where exactly are the tories going to pick up these extra seats on their lower vote share? Be pragmatic for a moment. That's the point of this excellent TSE thread header. Here are the plausible outcomes:
1. The South
Con to LibDems. Possibly in large numbers.
2. Scotland
Con to everyone else. Probably in large numbers
3. The North
So this is Cummings' brainwave? Weaponise liberal leftie policies like gay and trans rights, pitch at the Labour working class Brexit vote. Even if they did abandon Labour (which I doubt) do we really think that the Labour heartlands are going to fall for Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg over the blokey Nigel Farage?
Labour will perform better than current polling I suspect because all the polls have been conducted in the nexus of Brexit. Amazingly, people will be concerned about loads of other things during the General Election campaign. Brexit will burn brightly at first then fade. It's never really been of that much interest to people outside the right-wing of the tory party. Issues like the NHS, schools, transport, jobs, inflation, climate etc. etc. will be coming to the fore. I cannot see the Johnson Conservatives leading the way on them. Rory Stewart would. But not Johnson.
Labour heartlands won't turn from Labour.
So I reckon the FPTP will work the opposite way from how you think. Because of the geographical nuances, the Conservatives will outperform in vote share their actual share of the seats.
The big factor is the resurgence of the LibDems. Most Lab-Con marginals are sensitive to this. In 2017 many LibDems (and Greens) allowed ourselves to be squeezed. This will happen again this time but not to the same extent because of Corbyn's prevarication on Brexit and the Antisemitism crisis/smears. This small Lab>LD swing (bigger in the south) will allow the Tories to "come through the middle" in many marginals. Places like Crewe, Stroud, Lincoln, Wakefield, Reading East... dozens of them. Meanwhile there's only a handful of London seats that Labour can pick up to compensate for this, and only a handful of southern seats that the LibDems can pick up from the Tories - the Tory majorities are generally too large to overcome.
I don’t get the whole “Brexit will be cancelled” view on here. Seems to me Boris/Cummings have run the entirety of the past 5 weeks to a) win back lost vote to Farage, b) realign the parliamentary party to being Deal or No Deal across the board c) squeeze Labour as hard as possible and setup a straightforward campaign message.
So far they’ve been pretty successful on all counts and this latest reticence by Labour to hold an election only helps further.
Maybe those of you that look much closer and in some cases have much more personal involvement and emotional attachment are right. But the Normals in the Remain camp I speak to think the Lib Dem’s under Swinson are underwhelming and they’re still scared witless of Corbyn. Some say they’ll hold their noises and vote Boris, others are just a bit ragey and I suspect probably won’t vote.
Yup, I agree with all of this. I think the prorogation and removing the whip were both blunders but the overall strategy is sound.
More generally, everybody's getting too elated and/or depressed when each side makes their moves. There are moves, there are counter-moves, it's all still wide open.
The LDs undoubtedly benefited from a clear, unambiguous message over Brexit. But the difficulty here is that we have Coke light vs the full fat version. If, as some people say (and I have my doubts) it is going to be a Brexit GE and you really want Brexit, ideally with no deal, then why would you vote for the Cons when Nigel is going to be making a hell of a noise about it all and jumping all over any minor concession the Cons make to sanity?
Plus how many of the 21 will fight their seats again?
If we GE now I think we will end up back more or less where we are today; a mess.
Unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.
It won't.
It's a General Election and many many topics of interest and concern will come to the fore. Most people are in fact sick of Brexit and fall into two camps. Get the blinking thing done or kick it into touch. Whatever, don't discuss it any more.
NHS, schools, transport, climate, poverty, crime ... these are some of the issues of far more interest and concern to the vast majority of people in this country.
Brexit is boring. Okay, it isn't to me because I'm a political nerd. But I promise you that Brexit is boring for most people. They never were much interested in Europe, and they won't be in the future. This was and always has been an obsession of people like HYUFD. Not the country.
17 million voted to Leave the EU in 2016 on a higher turnout than any general election for over 25 years.
They will vote for Boris to deliver their will at last
So your last gasp hope is that all the 17.4m from 3 years ago are all going to vote Conservative? Because Brexit is the one and only thing that fires them for a Gov't?
You're in an obsessive bubble of your own creation.
For a start many of those 17.4m voted with lack of certainty and clarity. Many of them have since seen the shambles and are now remainers (look at followings for @RemainerNow on twitter) and in a General Election other issues come to the fore than a single issue referendum.
You're screwed. I think deep down you probably do know it, judging by your increasingly strident posts to the contrary. They just seem, well, a bit desperate.
At least now we have Parliament the spending spree stuff will get properly scrutinised and politically taken apart.
Where’s the money coming from? Cuts elsewhere? Tax? Extra borrowing? Raiding the emergency coffers? Worst kindof promises this side of election thats reneged on afterwards?
In huge news for geeks, the government looks set to abandon RPI, consulting on effectively redefining it as CPIH from 2025-30. This has implications for things as diverse as private sector pension scheme increases to rail fares to the value of gilts.
It's possibly the most important thing that will be announced today and no one will notice.
What will happen to contracted price rises linked to RPI?
In huge news for geeks, the government looks set to abandon RPI, consulting on effectively redefining it as CPIH from 2025-30. This has implications for things as diverse as private sector pension scheme increases to rail fares to the value of gilts.
It's possibly the most important thing that will be announced today and no one will notice.
What will happen to contracted price rises linked to RPI?
The proposal is to redefine RPI, as I understand it, so contracted price rises will tend to rise more slowly, in line with CPIH.
Unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.
It won't.
It's a General Election and many many topics of interest and concern will come to the fore. Most people are in fact sick of Brexit and fall into two camps. Get the blinking thing done or kick it into touch. Whatever, don't discuss it any more.
NHS, schools, transport, climate, poverty, crime ... these are some of the issues of far more interest and concern to the vast majority of people in this country.
Brexit is boring. Okay, it isn't to me because I'm a political nerd. But I promise you that Brexit is boring for most people. They never were much interested in Europe, and they won't be in the future. This was and always has been an obsession of people like HYUFD. Not the country.
17 million voted to Leave the EU in 2016 on a higher turnout than any general election for over 25 years.
They will vote for Boris to deliver their will at last
So your last gasp hope is that all the 17.4m from 3 years ago are all going to vote Conservative? Because Brexit is the one and only thing that fires them for a Gov't?
You're in an obsessive bubble of your own creation.
For a start many of those 17.4m voted with lack of certainty and clarity. Many of them have since seen the shambles and are now remainers (look at followings for @RemainerNow on twitter) and in a General Election other issues come to the fore than a single issue referendum.
You're screwed. I think deep down you probably do know it, judging by your increasingly strident posts to the contrary. They just seem, well, a bit desperate.
No offence intended by the way.
Corbyn Labour is screwed now, most voters oppose further extension in latest Yougov and Survation polls with Tories having an 11 to 7% lead respectively.
Boris also a populist unlike May promising tax cuts and more money for NHS and police
In huge news for geeks, the government looks set to abandon RPI, consulting on effectively redefining it as CPIH from 2025-30. This has implications for things as diverse as private sector pension scheme increases to rail fares to the value of gilts.
It's possibly the most important thing that will be announced today and no one will notice.
That is big news...... Ironic that student loan interest rates are still linked to rpi but nsi index linked savings certificates now link to cpi not rpi on maturity.
Unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.
It won't.
It's a General Election and many many topics of interest and concern will come to the fore. Most people are in fact sick of Brexit and fall into two camps. Get the blinking thing done or kick it into touch. Whatever, don't discuss it any more.
NHS, schools, transport, climate, poverty, crime ... these are some of the issues of far more interest and concern to the vast majority of people in this country.
Brexit is boring. Okay, it isn't to me because I'm a political nerd. But I promise you that Brexit is boring for most people. They never were much interested in Europe, and they won't be in the future. This was and always has been an obsession of people like HYUFD. Not the country.
17 million voted to Leave the EU in 2016 on a higher turnout than any general election for over 25 years.
They will vote for Boris to deliver their will at last
So your last gasp hope is that all the 17.4m from 3 years ago are all going to vote Conservative? Because Brexit is the one and only thing that fires them for a Gov't?
You're in an obsessive bubble of your own creation.
For a start many of those 17.4m voted with lack of certainty and clarity. Many of them have since seen the shambles and are now remainers (look at followings for @RemainerNow on twitter) and in a General Election other issues come to the fore than a single issue referendum.
You're screwed. I think deep down you probably do know it, judging by your increasingly strident posts to the contrary. They just seem, well, a bit desperate.
No offence intended by the way.
Corbyn Labour is screwed now, most voters oppose further extension in latest Yougov and Survation polls with Tories having an 11 to 7% lead respectively.
Boris also a populist unlike May promising tax cuts and more money for NHS and police
You say ‘Boris also a populist’ like that is a good thing...
In huge news for geeks, the government looks set to abandon RPI, consulting on effectively redefining it as CPIH from 2025-30. This has implications for things as diverse as private sector pension scheme increases to rail fares to the value of gilts.
It's possibly the most important thing that will be announced today and no one will notice.
The govt seems to currently benefit from the arbitrage between the higher RPI (generally for incoming funds) and lower CPI (generally for outgoing funds). How would CPIH change things? Good or bad?
If it's of any interest, last night's dramas have made headline news on multiple Bulgarian national and local radio stations.
I've been quizzed about it twice this morning.
A close friend of mine in Finland sent a video of Finnish news coming live from the HOC along with a gif of Michael Jackson eating popcorn.
At least we're entertaining Europe.
you can't believe the amount of "wtf" comments I'm getting at work this morning - everyone thinks the UK has gone completely nuts and it's impossible to disagree. Failure to brexit will be a disaster, just as much as brexit will be a disaster but the view from Denmark is - leave or revoke by 31 October - Nobody I speak to wants the UK to be given any more time and I wholeheartedly agree.
Every day, possibly every hour, that this goes on the more Johnson looks like he has lost control. He badly badly needs to accept the extension to A50 legislation, whack it through and call for the General Election.
Otherwise he's going to make Mrs May look positively strong and stable.
My rough guess on those numbers, Labour loses all seats bar Edinburgh South Lib Dems pick up Fife NE (obviously) Cons lose their 3 Lib Dem mass switch seats from 2017 plus at least 5 more?
Swing is LD to SNP on those numbers, Fife stays SNP on uns Cons hold Berwickshire, Dunfriesshire and Aberdeenshire West Lab back to unicycle territory
UNS is going to be super rubbish in Scotland. You have the twin Axes of Brexit and Sindy.
In Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine the Con win was based on the LibDem vote going from 11,812 in 2015 to 4,461 in 2017 and the Lab Vote going from 2,487 to 5,706.
The SNP-to-Lab switchers are going to switch back as are Lib Dem to Con Switchers. It will be far closer than UNS suggests.
In Fife NE there are over fourteen thousand Con and Lab voters for the Lib Dems to squeeze, ten thousand of them Con voters.
Unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.
It won't.
It's a General Election and many many topics of interest and concern will come to the fore. Most people are in fact sick of Brexit and fall into two camps. Get the blinking thing done or kick it into touch. Whatever, don't discuss it any more.
NHS, schools, transport, climate, poverty, crime ... these are some of the issues of far more interest and concern to the vast majority of people in this country.
Brexit is boring. Okay, it isn't to me because I'm a political nerd. But I promise you that Brexit is boring for most people. They never were much interested in Europe, and they won't be in the future. This was and always has been an obsession of people like HYUFD. Not the country.
17 million voted to Leave the EU in 2016 on a higher turnout than any general election for over 25 years.
They will vote for Boris to deliver their will at last
So your last gasp hope is that all the 17.4m from 3 years ago are all going to vote Conservative? Because Brexit is the one and only thing that fires them for a Gov't?
You're in an obsessive bubble of your own creation.
For a start many of those 17.4m voted with lack of certainty and clarity. Many of them have since seen the shambles and are now remainers (look at followings for @RemainerNow on twitter) and in a General Election other issues come to the fore than a single issue referendum.
You're screwed. I think deep down you probably do know it, judging by your increasingly strident posts to the contrary. They just seem, well, a bit desperate.
No offence intended by the way.
Corbyn Labour is screwed now, most voters oppose further extension in latest Yougov and Survation polls with Tories having an 11 to 7% lead respectively.
Boris also a populist unlike May promising tax cuts and more money for NHS and police
You are sounding complacent.
It is not at all certain Boris will get a majority and it is also possible that the majority in the next HOC will be all remain parties in some form and that will signal the start of the end of Brexit
Unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.
It won't.
It's a General Election and many many topics of interest and concern will come to the fore. Most people are in fact sick of Brexit and fall into two camps. Get the blinking thing done or kick it into touch. Whatever, don't discuss it any more.
NHS, schools, transport, climate, poverty, crime ... these are some of the issues of far more interest and concern to the vast majority of people in this country.
Brexit is boring. Okay, it isn't to me because I'm a political nerd. But I promise you that Brexit is boring for most people. They never were much interested in Europe, and they won't be in the future. This was and always has been an obsession of people like HYUFD. Not the country.
17 million voted to Leave the EU in 2016 on a higher turnout than any general election for over 25 years.
They will vote for Boris to deliver their will at last
So your last gasp hope is that all the 17.4m from 3 years ago are all going to vote Conservative? Because Brexit is the one and only thing that fires them for a Gov't?
You're in an obsessive bubble of your own creation.
For a start many of those 17.4m voted with lack of certainty and clarity. Many of them have since seen the shambles and are now remainers (look at followings for @RemainerNow on twitter) and in a General Election other issues come to the fore than a single issue referendum.
You're screwed. I think deep down you probably do know it, judging by your increasingly strident posts to the contrary. They just seem, well, a bit desperate.
No offence intended by the way.
Corbyn Labour is screwed now, most voters oppose further extension in latest Yougov and Survation polls with Tories having an 11 to 7% lead respectively.
Boris also a populist unlike May promising tax cuts and more money for NHS and police
You say ‘Boris also a populist’ like that is a good thing...
Unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.
It won't.
It's a General Election and many many topics of interest and concern will come to the fore. Most people are in fact sick of Brexit and fall into two camps. Get the blinking thing done or kick it into touch. Whatever, don't discuss it any more.
NHS, schools, transport, climate, poverty, crime ... these are some of the issues of far more interest and concern to the vast majority of people in this country.
Brexit is boring. Okay, it isn't to me because I'm a political nerd. But I promise you that Brexit is boring for most people. They never were much interested in Europe, and they won't be in the future. This was and always has been an obsession of people like HYUFD. Not the country.
17 million voted to Leave the EU in 2016 on a higher turnout than any general election for over 25 years.
They will vote for Boris to deliver their will at last
I mean, I don't think they will.
Say 5-10% of the vote was Lexit based, we're down to 42-47%. Let's say another 5-10% of the entire vote was Leave but not No Deal Leave: that's 32-37%. Let's also suggest that some of a 10 - 15% of the Leave vote are just outright bigots who will always want a party to the right of the Tories (UKIP, BXP, whatever). That puts it around the high 20s. The coalition of voters the Tories have seem to be that ~20-30% of the entire electorate who are Leavers + habitual Tory voters + people who care more about Corbyn and him not being PM than anything else.
That is a pretty unstable coalition: habitual Tory voters may actually like Ken Clarke, or care about Churchill's grandson, or could have liked Rory Stewart (and now those guys have free rein to sit on daytime TV and just slag off Johnson non stop), some of that Leave vote may join BXP if Johnson doesn't convince on his strong man routine (and his current performances haven't been great) and, as always with politics and GEs "events, dear boy, events".
And, if done correctly, a few Remain voters may go back to Labour after all this. Especially if the Tories lean into culture wars. Not to mention that, once a GE happens and media regulations kick in, people actually start liking the Labour party again.
I do not see a polarising government who are losing seats in Scotland and the South West magicking up a majority government from anywhere.
Meanwhile, the court cases about prorogation continue. Don't forget them. If the government loses one of those, another applecart gets overturned.
It seems quite likely, given that those cases might well be appealed to the Supreme Court, that the government might need to give court undertakings not to prorogue before 12 September, the end of the window, so that the court process can be exhausted. If so, that gives everyone a couple more days to play with.
The Gov't might need those days after 'No deal brexit is blocked' in Corbyn's terms in order to push through the GE
I don’t get the whole “Brexit will be cancelled” view on here. Seems to me Boris/Cummings have run the entirety of the past 5 weeks to a) win back lost vote to Farage, b) realign the parliamentary party to being Deal or No Deal across the board c) squeeze Labour as hard as possible and setup a straightforward campaign message.
So far they’ve been pretty successful on all counts and this latest reticence by Labour to hold an election only helps further.
Maybe those of you that look much closer and in some cases have much more personal involvement and emotional attachment are right. But the Normals in the Remain camp I speak to think the Lib Dem’s under Swinson are underwhelming and they’re still scared witless of Corbyn. Some say they’ll hold their noises and vote Boris, others are just a bit ragey and I suspect probably won’t vote.
Yup, I agree with all of this. I think the prorogation and removing the whip were both blunders but the overall strategy is sound.
More generally, everybody's getting too elated and/or depressed when each side makes their moves. There are moves, there are counter-moves, it's all still wide open.
I’m not certain these were definitely blunders. Too early to say. They both cement in BPE voters minds that Boris means business and the whips removal means the parliamentary party post election should be quite disciplined. Unknowable is how many average Tory Remain voters will walk away because of these things. Some I suspect but largely in places that their losses can absorbed.
In huge news for geeks, the government looks set to abandon RPI, consulting on effectively redefining it as CPIH from 2025-30. This has implications for things as diverse as private sector pension scheme increases to rail fares to the value of gilts.
It's possibly the most important thing that will be announced today and no one will notice.
The govt seems to currently benefit from the arbitrage between the higher RPI (generally for incoming funds) and lower CPI (generally for outgoing funds). How would CPIH change things? Good or bad?
It will require a bit of a rethink all round, but in many places should be popular with the public.
Agree though that it is bad news for the SNP that despite Brexit 51% of Scottish voters would still vote to stay in the UK
For a separatist party 49% is fine, it is well within the margin of error and they only need to win one referendum whereas unionists need to win every referendum.
No, for a separatist party 49% for independence excuding Don't Knows is bad news.
In Quebec in 1995 the pro independence side had a narrow lead in final polls excluding Don't Knows in their second independence referendum but No won as Don't Knows went No and No won 51% to 49%.
Quebec has never had another independence referendum again and is now firmly in Canada with devomax
This is the SNP conundrum which is made more acute by the surprising fact that "Yes" has failed to break through the 50% barrier so far. This really ought to be peak polling for them. If they lose a second IndyRef its all over for them. Sturgeon, for all the rhetoric, is genuinely torn.
It would be "do or die" as there will certainly not be a third referendum as Scotland will turn its back on the subject as the Quebecois did, and the Nats will start suffering from the effects of long-term incumbency at Holyrood. And we haven't had the Salmond trial yet.
My recollection is that there was talk of a precondition of a second IndyRef being Yes polling in the region of 60% in order to demonstrate the "settled will". We don't seem to be quite there yet.
a. there will not be 59 Green candidates on the Scottish ballot papers. Last time there were only 3 candidates, so you can redistribute their 4%, roughly SNP 2, SLab 1, SLD 1
b. groundgame: SNP highly motivated and Tories crushingly dispirited = add a couple of point to Con to SNP swing
c shy-Tory syndrome = cancels that swing adjustment at b.
How to trash your brand in less time than it took Gerald Ratner
1. Sack your most trusted faces-Hammond Clark Stewart Soames-by text message
2. Appoint as leader the most distrusted MP in Parliament
3. Convince the public that your leader is working under the instruction of a modern day Rasputin who believes he's more important than parliament's tried and trusted institutions and people
4. Have the face of your flagship policy lolling on the parliamentary benches as though at his private Gentlemans club
5. Send your least attractive MPs to instruct the media how you have the right to do exactly what you like despite having a majority of -22.
Some couldn't abide by the party. They're not part of the party anymore.
No division.
No doubt some new division will open up separating the even more pure from the less than pure and another purge will be necessary....
Yes. If for instance Boris does get a deal and makes it a confidence motion and if Baker for instance rebels then he should be expelled too. No ifs, no buts.
One of the more interesting posts this morning was the one pointing out that the Tory party it has not rid itself of all the anti no dealers, there was one on this morning saying she was still willing to give Johnson a chance to deliver a deal but if he didn’t she didn’t know what she would do. We may well see the last act of this parliament being to revoke article 50.
Unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.
It won't.
It's a General Election and many many topics of interest and concern will come to the fore. Most people are in fact sick of Brexit and fall into two camps. Get the blinking thing done or kick it into touch. Whatever, don't discuss it any more.
NHS, schools, transport, climate, poverty, crime ... these are some of the issues of far more interest and concern to the vast majority of people in this country.
Brexit is boring. Okay, it isn't to me because I'm a political nerd. But I promise you that Brexit is boring for most people. They never were much interested in Europe, and they won't be in the future. This was and always has been an obsession of people like HYUFD. Not the country.
Boris will look in the camera and say "Give me your vote, give me a working majority - and I will deliver Brexit before you have your Christmas pud. You can have given up worrying about whether we will ever implement Brexit by the time you sing Auld Lang Syne. Then Westminster can get back to addrssing all the other important stuff you need us to do as your government."
Agree though that it is bad news for the SNP that despite Brexit 51% of Scottish voters would still vote to stay in the UK
For a separatist party 49% is fine, it is well within the margin of error and they only need to win one referendum whereas unionists need to win every referendum.
Except that they only get one referendum a generation, and if they lose two the cause dies out, possibly forever. Cf Quebec.
I don’t think there will be a vote in Scotland for 10 years or more. Brexit is too horrific an example of what happens if you try to enact dramatic constitutional change on a divided country, on the back of a plebiscite. Memories of it will need to fade before the Nats can or will try again
I am exhausted trying to keep up with UK politics so dont particularly follow Scottish specific politics but from a mathematical angle 49% is not a problem for a separatist party, particularly when the direction of travel is in their favour.
As alluded to previously Quebec is one of the several straws to which Unionists cling. Obviously the '2nd ref killed the Nats stone dead' schtick is comforting to the fearful, but I can't really see the comparison with regard to history, culture, politics or constitution to name but four.
The idea that Scotland is going to recoil from indy because English politicians (with even their Scottish satraps looking on aghast) have made an almighty fuckup of Brexit is an interesting one. If nothing else it provides a useful template for what not to do.
You get the feeling that the Tory party will wake up at some point realising what the hell it has done to itself. The only question is will it be too late to do anything about it.
The cynic in me says she is only meeting with them so the Chinese will know who to round up.....
I think China already know who the ringleaders are.
I don't know if the move is genuine. I'd be suspicious if I were a Hong Kong protestor but also careful not to fall into a trap of looking unreasonable.
Unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.
It won't.
It's a General Election and many many topics of interest and concern will come to the fore. Most people are in fact sick of Brexit and fall into two camps. Get the blinking thing done or kick it into touch. Whatever, don't discuss it any more.
NHS, schools, transport, climate, poverty, crime ... these are some of the issues of far more interest and concern to the vast majority of people in this country.
Brexit is boring. Okay, it isn't to me because I'm a political nerd. But I promise you that Brexit is boring for most people. They never were much interested in Europe, and they won't be in the future. This was and always has been an obsession of people like HYUFD. Not the country.
Boris will look in the camera and say "Give me your vote, give me a working majority - and I will deliver Brexit before you have your Christmas pud. You can have given up worrying about whether we will ever implement Brexit by the time you sing Auld Lang Syne. Then Westminster can get back to addrssing all the other important stuff you need us to do as your government."
And the nation will say "Gawd bless yer guv...."
If Boris comes to a podium to say “it’s for You. the People. To decide the greatest threat to your household. A return to the old failed tax and spend Keynesian social economic model of the past you will get with Corbyn and McDonnell, or forward with me to the sunny uplands of Global Britain! the same spending only with lower taxes”
that will be the shortest suicide speech in history!
What recent events in politics have done is absolutely firmed up our plans as a family for our future.
We're moving to Scotland. I think the UK in its current form is finished, and the nasty bigoted form of English nationalism represented by leave/JRM prostrate isn't something I want my kids to have to live with.
Won't happen straight away, but the seed has been firmly planted
Unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.
It won't.
It's a General Election and many many topics of interest and concern will come to the fore. Most people are in fact sick of Brexit and fall into two camps. Get the blinking thing done or kick it into touch. Whatever, don't discuss it any more.
NHS, schools, transport, climate, poverty, crime ... these are some of the issues of far more interest and concern to the vast majority of people in this country.
Brexit is boring. Okay, it isn't to me because I'm a political nerd. But I promise you that Brexit is boring for most people. They never were much interested in Europe, and they won't be in the future. This was and always has been an obsession of people like HYUFD. Not the country.
Boris will look in the camera and say "Give me your vote, give me a working majority - and I will deliver Brexit before you have your Christmas pud. You can have given up worrying about whether we will ever implement Brexit by the time you sing Auld Lang Syne. Then Westminster can get back to addrssing all the other important stuff you need us to do as your government."
And the nation will say "Gawd bless yer guv...."
And Boris will fully own the disaster that is Brexit as it rolls through the next couple of years...
Comments
We now know what a Deal looks like thanks to Mrs May
Surely the way forward now is Revoke A50 and set up a Royal Commission to examine the impacts from the now known positions and then make a recommendation to the country followed by a binary referendum with a 66.7% threshold?
It means that voters would known precisely what the impact will be and no unicorns will be allowed
Do not know hence the question.
Remind me what Theresa May was polling before the 2017 election.
* not my coinage, but I love it
Funny the amount of times I was told you couldn't make an issue a confidence motion post-FTPA! Clearly nonsense as I wrote here all along!
Perhaps they will...
So far they’ve been pretty successful on all counts and this latest reticence by Labour to hold an election only helps further.
Maybe those of you that look much closer and in some cases have much more personal involvement and emotional attachment are right. But the Normals in the Remain camp I speak to think the Lib Dem’s under Swinson are underwhelming and they’re still scared witless of Corbyn. Some say they’ll hold their noises and vote Boris, others are just a bit ragey and I suspect probably won’t vote.
Add to that some of Corbyn!s barmier ideas are actually popular.....
We're moving to Scotland. I think the UK in its current form is finished, and the nasty bigoted form of English nationalism represented by leave/JRM prostrate isn't something I want my kids to have to live with.
Won't happen straight away, but the seed has been firmly planted
As a Conservative I value institutions like the monarchy, the House of Lords and the Union. If the purity of Brexit threatens them then I'm out.
It's possibly the most important thing that will be announced today and no one will notice.
https://metro.co.uk/2019/07/17/secret-sm-heavy-drinking-graphic-puppet-sex-rainbow-not-kids-tv-show-thought-behind-scenes-10386716/
It's a General Election and many many topics of interest and concern will come to the fore. Most people are in fact sick of Brexit and fall into two camps. Get the blinking thing done or kick it into touch. Whatever, don't discuss it any more.
NHS, schools, transport, climate, poverty, crime ... these are some of the issues of far more interest and concern to the vast majority of people in this country.
Brexit is boring. Okay, it isn't to me because I'm a political nerd. But I promise you that Brexit is boring for most people. They never were much interested in Europe, and they won't be in the future. This was and always has been an obsession of people like HYUFD. Not the country.
They will vote for Boris to deliver their will at last
https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1169154402378309632
I'd say all bets are off.
More generally, everybody's getting too elated and/or depressed when each side makes their moves. There are moves, there are counter-moves, it's all still wide open.
No member of the government stated the vote was a confidence issue.
It's highly likely lords reform will be being added to that list today.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1169140228055085056
Some couldn't abide by the party. They're not part of the party anymore.
No division.
Plus how many of the 21 will fight their seats again?
If we GE now I think we will end up back more or less where we are today; a mess.
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1169147998170943488?s=19
You're in an obsessive bubble of your own creation.
For a start many of those 17.4m voted with lack of certainty and clarity. Many of them have since seen the shambles and are now remainers (look at followings for @RemainerNow on twitter) and in a General Election other issues come to the fore than a single issue referendum.
You're screwed. I think deep down you probably do know it, judging by your increasingly strident posts to the contrary. They just seem, well, a bit desperate.
No offence intended by the way.
Post a GE the government of the day can put forward its own legislation
Where’s the money coming from? Cuts elsewhere? Tax? Extra borrowing? Raiding the emergency coffers? Worst kindof promises this side of election thats reneged on afterwards?
Brexit Party
Conservative Party
Independent Conservative..
Boris also a populist unlike May promising tax cuts and more money for NHS and police
Otherwise he's going to make Mrs May look positively strong and stable.
https://news.sky.com/story/mps-take-control-of-commons-agenda-to-delay-no-deal-brexit-as-election-threat-looms-11801687
In Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine the Con win was based on the LibDem vote going from 11,812 in 2015 to 4,461 in 2017 and the Lab Vote going from 2,487 to 5,706.
The SNP-to-Lab switchers are going to switch back as are Lib Dem to Con Switchers. It will be far closer than UNS suggests.
In Fife NE there are over fourteen thousand Con and Lab voters for the Lib Dems to squeeze, ten thousand of them Con voters.
Fife NE is a 100% Lib Dem gain.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1169168476109516802
Might not be the wisest text, if Cummings was sober.
It is not at all certain Boris will get a majority and it is also possible that the majority in the next HOC will be all remain parties in some form and that will signal the start of the end of Brexit
Say 5-10% of the vote was Lexit based, we're down to 42-47%. Let's say another 5-10% of the entire vote was Leave but not No Deal Leave: that's 32-37%. Let's also suggest that some of a 10 - 15% of the Leave vote are just outright bigots who will always want a party to the right of the Tories (UKIP, BXP, whatever). That puts it around the high 20s. The coalition of voters the Tories have seem to be that ~20-30% of the entire electorate who are Leavers + habitual Tory voters + people who care more about Corbyn and him not being PM than anything else.
That is a pretty unstable coalition: habitual Tory voters may actually like Ken Clarke, or care about Churchill's grandson, or could have liked Rory Stewart (and now those guys have free rein to sit on daytime TV and just slag off Johnson non stop), some of that Leave vote may join BXP if Johnson doesn't convince on his strong man routine (and his current performances haven't been great) and, as always with politics and GEs "events, dear boy, events".
And, if done correctly, a few Remain voters may go back to Labour after all this. Especially if the Tories lean into culture wars. Not to mention that, once a GE happens and media regulations kick in, people actually start liking the Labour party again.
I do not see a polarising government who are losing seats in Scotland and the South West magicking up a majority government from anywhere.
Not over emotional and fatigued.
Might not be the wisest text, if Cummings was sober.
Unknowable is how many average Tory Remain voters will walk away because of these things. Some I suspect but largely in places that their losses can absorbed.
doEDIT: not reject the flag waving JingoismNot so obvious Scotland, Northern Ireland* or perhaps Wales will.
*Yes, I know, NI have their own brand of flag waving Jingoism. I am not sure BoZo's brand of Little England jingoism is to their taste
It will require a bit of a rethink all round, but in many places should be popular with the public.
It would be "do or die" as there will certainly not be a third referendum as Scotland will turn its back on the subject as the Quebecois did, and the Nats will start suffering from the effects of long-term incumbency at Holyrood. And we haven't had the Salmond trial yet.
My recollection is that there was talk of a precondition of a second IndyRef being Yes polling in the region of 60% in order to demonstrate the "settled will". We don't seem to be quite there yet.
a. there will not be 59 Green candidates on the Scottish ballot papers. Last time there were only 3 candidates, so you can redistribute their 4%, roughly SNP 2, SLab 1, SLD 1
b. groundgame: SNP highly motivated and Tories crushingly dispirited = add a couple of point to Con to SNP swing
c shy-Tory syndrome = cancels that swing adjustment at b.
1. Sack your most trusted faces-Hammond Clark Stewart Soames-by text message
2. Appoint as leader the most distrusted MP in Parliament
3. Convince the public that your leader is working under the instruction of a modern day Rasputin who believes he's more important than parliament's tried and trusted institutions and people
4. Have the face of your flagship policy lolling on the parliamentary benches as though at his private Gentlemans club
5. Send your least attractive MPs to instruct the media how you have the right to do exactly what you like despite having a majority of -22.
Does anyone here object to that?
That seems a very stupid game to play.
A fact that's been lost among all the No Deal narrative is that there is a large pro-Backstop majority in the HoC.
As I say, irony.
And the nation will say "Gawd bless yer guv...."
Says more about May than Boris.
Why didn't May make it a confidence motion? Why did Major?
The idea that Scotland is going to recoil from indy because English politicians (with even their Scottish satraps looking on aghast) have made an almighty fuckup of Brexit is an interesting one. If nothing else it provides a useful template for what not to do.
Allows him to make the call to BXP voters very clear.
I don't know if the move is genuine. I'd be suspicious if I were a Hong Kong protestor but also careful not to fall into a trap of looking unreasonable.
that will be the shortest suicide speech in history!