My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.
Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.
We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
How can Johnson come back with a deal like May's when he has made dropping the backstop a red line and kicked out a load of MPs who voted for May's deal? He is committed to no deal now, whatever he says in public about getting a deal at the last minute, because he is insisting on something that the EU cannot agree to. Your fear for our country is wholly justified.
Boris has to bring the WDA back as amended with labour and TM before her resignation.
It is part of the no deal act (Kinnock amendment) and sponsored by 17 labour mps. Even McDonnell recognised it today on Sky suggesting it could be a compromise if the government conceded on a few issues
Byronic, Johnson will never be a man of the people. Farage, despite his private school education, can almost pull it off. Etonian Johnson with William Rees-Mogg by his side? No chance.
As Mike Smithson regularly reminds those with short memories, Johnson never performs in practice as well as the polling suggests.
He's also turning out to be a piss-poor speaker.
The Conservatives under Johnson-Cummings have achieved the remarkable feat of publicly ripping themselves apart whilst making Jeremy Corbyn appear statesmanlike and principled.
It's over. For Johnson.
Interesting you are so confident it is all over for Johnson.
I am in a charitable mood so I am going to give you the opportunity of backing your proclamations with a straight bet on most seats at the next GE (Tory v Labour).
Any stake you like on Labour and i'll match it on the Tories.
Very bad value. Lab are 3.95 for most seats on Betfair.
I have not met a person yet who is impressed by BoZo as PM so as to switch votes. I work in a mostly female workplace and he is widely despised for his lying and bullying. He is going to go down in flames during an election.
The onslaught Boris came under yesteday is without precedent but I would caution by declaring Boris is over. We have not as yet seen any polling over these recent events but there is a lot of a anecdotal evidence, even with my acquaintances, that the public are furious with the HOC, reject any delay, and just want to leave at the end of October,
If that is a view across the electorate Boris is far from over
Remember, we are in a bubble on this forum and it is real non political people who will decide
I have been saying this repeatedly.
PB is in no way reflective of wider society, it is a thoroughly entertaining forum but as a litmus for normal people it is dreadful. There is so much swivel-eyed ranting on here from remainers that it is almost become twitter-lite.
I am pretty confident there are going to be some utterly distraught remainers/Labour supporters after the GE who cannot fathom how the result was so different to the prevailing 'wisdom' on here.
It would be good to have some kind of analytics on display here, counting posts by type. My impression is it is about 50-50 leave remain, 33 do or die brexit, 33 deal, 33, remain. It seems reasonably balanced, I am not sure there is a prevailing wisdom, perhaps I am completely wrong?
I fully accept the headers are far more skeptical of no deal, I am talking about the posters.
‘Bollocks to Brexit’ was a promising start for the Lib Dems. Unfortunately, Swinson had to abandon it, or lose her own seat. She is entirely dependent on SCon tactical votes to cling on.
“Bollocks to Brexit” is certainly memorable but is not shared by Labour. It may help the Lib Dems but they are unlikely to form the next government on their own.
Anyway I have to make my own elevator pitch today so I will check in later.
Who knows what will have happened by then?!
It’s also rather childish.
I’m sure it animates and activates the core street activists and twitterati.
It probably plays far less well with floating voters.
The onslaught Boris came under yesteday is without precedent but I would caution by declaring Boris is over. We have not as yet seen any polling over these recent events but there is a lot of a anecdotal evidence, even with my acquaintances, that the public are furious with the HOC, reject any delay, and just want to leave at the end of October,
If that is a view across the electorate Boris is far from over
Remember, we are in a bubble on this forum and it is real non political people who will decide
I have been saying this repeatedly.
PB is in no way reflective of wider society, it is a thoroughly entertaining forum but as a litmus for normal people it is dreadful. There is so much swivel-eyed ranting on here from remainers that it is almost become twitter-lite.
I am pretty confident there are going to be some utterly distraught remainers/Labour supporters after the GE who cannot fathom how the result was so different to the prevailing 'wisdom' on here.
Again, I think you're wrong. The protests on Saturday were real, widespread and visceral. On Tuesday 1.5 million people were, I'm told, watching events live on the Parliament Channel. The Parliament Channel. Just stop and consider that for a second. Finally, twitter has been awash with this for days: some of the many trends going truly viral e.g. Rees-Mogg's horrific slouching error and Jess Phillips last night.
Johnson has done what Theresa May never quite achieved: unite the Opposition in Parliament and the country. As Lewis Goodall put in that article I linked (do read it if you haven't already): whilst people despaired of Theresa May they despise Boris Johnson.
Johnson would be found out by people when under real scrutiny in 5 hours let alone 5 weeks. He already looks deeply uncomfortable. Under the spotlight he will be exposed for what most of us on here have seen: a shyster and a sham.
Byronic, Johnson will never be a man of the people. Farage, despite his private school education, can almost pull it off. Etonian Johnson with William Rees-Mogg by his side? No chance.
As Mike Smithson regularly reminds those with short memories, Johnson never performs in practice as well as the polling suggests.
He's also turning out to be a piss-poor speaker.
The Conservatives under Johnson-Cummings have achieved the remarkable feat of publicly ripping themselves apart whilst making Jeremy Corbyn appear statesmanlike and principled.
It's over. For Johnson.
Interesting you are so confident it is all over for Johnson.
I am in a charitable mood so I am going to give you the opportunity of backing your proclamations with a straight bet on most seats at the next GE (Tory v Labour).
Any stake you like on Labour and i'll match it on the Tories.
The Conservatives will probably get the most MPs, but there are many scenarios where it is still "over for Johnson". The problem is that the Conservative party doesn't have any other friends in parliament.
I am going to plant my flag in the HYFUD side of the line. I’m quite surprised that so many here think we’re close to seeing the killing off of a No deal Brexit or Brexit entirely. As far as I can see, it’s closer to happening than ever.
No Deal and Revocation have both become more probable in the last six weeks.
The mushy middle had receded, which is good for intellectual purity. And bad for the lives of real, actual human beings.
But the gap between the two is far closer than either side would like to admit.
The mushy middle may plump for whichever option proffers the greater prospect of the most rapid resolution to the whole saga.
Correct. This is the absolute core of it, and why the Tory conflation of weariness and hope for any end of the process, with affirmative support for Brexit, in "just get on with it", was such an under-reported tactical masterstroke in 2017, and which has then partly set the parameters of all our debate since.
My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.
Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.
We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
How can Johnson come back with a deal like May's when he has made dropping the backstop a red line and kicked out a load of MPs who voted for May's deal? He is committed to no deal now, whatever he says in public about getting a deal at the last minute, because he is insisting on something that the EU cannot agree to. Your fear for our country is wholly justified.
Boris has to bring the WDA back as amended with labour and TM before her resignation.
It is part of the no deal act (Kinnock amendment) and sponsored by 17 labour mps. Even McDonnell recognised it today on Sky suggesting it could be a compromise if the government conceded on a few issues
He cannot bring the WA back. His cabinet would not vote for it, neither would dozens of his MPs. It might get through Parliament with opposition support, but it would totally destroy the Conservative Party while turbocharging the Brexit Party. Johnson can only go for No Deal now. There are no other options.
Cutting through the noise, I can’t shake the feeling that Brexit is now dead.
My head says that Brexit is at least 80% likely. My gut says it’s over, that Johnson and Cummings have basically transmuted Brexit into a “No Deal” platform which will never carry Parliament or Country.
Maybe the battle against Brexit is coming to an end. And the war to defeat Corbyn is about to begin.
Cummings skill is in campaigning and message discipline. Not in governing.
A GE campaign will therefore play to his strengths. He will be very good at goading the other side to fall into his traps.
Everyone will know what they are but he’s so effective at creating fury and emotion that provokes many simply can’t help themselves.
The election result may hinge on the self-control of the opposition forces, and the savviness of the electorate overall.
The cacophony of Brexit is not just bad for our politics, it is drowning almost everything else out. So we had Javid yesterday announce billions of pounds of additional spending, the biggest annual increase since the madness of Brown was in full flow, and he barely gets a headline off the financial press.
This was a massive change in government policy. The ascetic, unimaginative world view of Hammond based on smaller government, lower taxes, squeezing government spending and doing as little as possible has been replaced by something that is much closer to what at least Ed Miliband would have gone for if not the full McDonnell who doesn't want to just turn on the taps but make good every cut in the last decade, apparently all at once.
I think that there is a good argument to be had if this is good economics given we are still indulging in excessive consumption and insufficient saving driving a dangerous trade deficit. I can see the likes of @another_richard gnashing their teeth in frustration. There may be an argument that this additional spending will be counter cyclical as the world economy slows down and is a sensible way to offset any adverse consequences of the B word but its not one I would make with any great enthusiasm. Do we really need a government borrowing on our behalf when the great British consumer is already up to their ears in debt?
From a political point of view the gap between the main parties has got a lot smaller. It won't stop the usual attacks on Labour profligacy of course but will they be credible? I fear the disillusioned such as @TSE, @richard_nabavi and @DavidHerdson will once again be wondering where the hell their party has gone.
I’m certainly not happy about it. Education needs extra resources, but the splurge is very Labour lite and also (dare I say it) populist.
I use that word because it’s hosing money for electorate effect rather than for what’s right for good Government. I haven’t seen the numbers yet but going on what’s reported that must bring to end any hope of eliminating all of the deficit.
Where money is really needed is in affordable housing, better grading the transition to Universal Credit, social care, justice and prisons, the foreign office and defence. And that should be slow and steady and dependent upon overall fiscal conservatism and the state of the economy.
But, I suppose there aren’t many votes in those.
In fairness they all got a splurge yesterday as well, especially police and prisons. But 1 year increases does very little other than address existing budget deficits, you cannot plan for an extension until there is an assured future income flow over the medium term.
Apparently BoZo says this is the first day of the election campaign. He is in Yorkshire
Corbyn said at the dispatch box yesterday he would agree to a GE once RA on the no deal bill is received and that will now happen after agreement with the government
The SNP said the same yesterday agreeing the 15th October and McDonnell has just confirmed they want an election and are in discussion with the parties to agree
A GE is coming and it is more than likely on the 15th October
A really good article. This is why Labour should be ensuring the election is after 31 October. All the smoke signals now, however, are that they have erred.
Byronic, Johnson will never be a man of the people. Farage, despite his private school education, can almost pull it off. Etonian Johnson with William Rees-Mogg by his side? No chance.
As Mike Smithson regularly reminds those with short memories, Johnson never performs in practice as well as the polling suggests.
He's also turning out to be a piss-poor speaker.
The Conservatives under Johnson-Cummings have achieved the remarkable feat of publicly ripping themselves apart whilst making Jeremy Corbyn appear statesmanlike and principled.
It's over. For Johnson.
Interesting you are so confident it is all over for Johnson.
I am in a charitable mood so I am going to give you the opportunity of backing your proclamations with a straight bet on most seats at the next GE (Tory v Labour).
Any stake you like on Labour and i'll match it on the Tories.
The Conservatives will probably get the most MPs, but there are many scenarios where it is still "over for Johnson". The problem is that the Conservative party doesn't have any other friends in parliament.
Further, the PM doesnt have many friends in the Conservative party, let alone other friends!
My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.
Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.
We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
How can Johnson come back with a deal like May's when he has made dropping the backstop a red line and kicked out a load of MPs who voted for May's deal? He is committed to no deal now, whatever he says in public about getting a deal at the last minute, because he is insisting on something that the EU cannot agree to. Your fear for our country is wholly justified.
Boris has to bring the WDA back as amended with labour and TM before her resignation.
It is part of the no deal act (Kinnock amendment) and sponsored by 17 labour mps. Even McDonnell recognised it today on Sky suggesting it could be a compromise if the government conceded on a few issues
He cannot bring the WA back. His cabinet would not vote for it, neither would dozens of his MPs. It might get through Parliament with opposition support, but it would totally destroy the Conservative Party while turbocharging the Brexit Party. Johnson can only go for No Deal now. There are no other options.
Boris goes for a "give me the tools to get Brexit done" election.
The voters say, "sure, yeah, whatever you want - just get it bloody done man...."
‘Bollocks to Brexit’ was a promising start for the Lib Dems. Unfortunately, Swinson had to abandon it, or lose her own seat. She is entirely dependent on SCon tactical votes to cling on.
“Bollocks to Brexit” is certainly memorable but is not shared by Labour. It may help the Lib Dems but they are unlikely to form the next government on their own.
Anyway I have to make my own elevator pitch today so I will check in later.
Who knows what will have happened by then?!
It’s also rather childish.
I’m sure it animates and activates the core street activists and twitterati.
It probably plays far less well with floating voters.
The paradox of Brexit is that it has been very effective in turning previously lacklustre enthusiasm into intense europhilia, and producing the biggest pro EU demonstrations of our era. Never before have we seen the EU flag waved so publically and energetically. Bollocks to Brexit is a very popular message, albeit to only half the population.
I am going to plant my flag in the HYFUD side of the line. I’m quite surprised that so many here think we’re close to seeing the killing off of a No deal Brexit or Brexit entirely. As far as I can see, it’s closer to happening than ever.
No Deal and Revocation have both become more probable in the last six weeks.
The mushy middle had receded, which is good for intellectual purity. And bad for the lives of real, actual human beings.
I am going to plant my flag in the HYFUD side of the line. I’m quite surprised that so many here think we’re close to seeing the killing off of a No deal Brexit or Brexit entirely. As far as I can see, it’s closer to happening than ever.
No Deal and Revocation have both become more probable in the last six weeks.
The mushy middle had receded, which is good for intellectual purity. And bad for the lives of real, actual human beings.
But the gap between the two is far closer than either side would like to admit.
The mushy middle may plump for whichever option proffers the greater prospect of the most rapid resolution to the whole saga.
I agree. And even now an EEA/EFTA exit woud bring the vast majority of people together.
Very bad value. Lab are 3.95 for most seats on Betfair.
I have not met a person yet who is impressed by BoZo as PM so as to switch votes. I work in a mostly female workplace and he is widely despised for his lying and bullying. He is going to go down in flames during an election.
Terrible bet for the individual concerned but it emphasises the point about how much misinformed bluster there is about Boris being finished or being despised or even 'going down in flames'.
It is hope and desperation being paraded as considered thought which is why there are going to be so many devastated remainer/Labourite after the next GE.
A really good article. This is why Labour should be ensuring the election is after 31 October. All the smoke signals now, however, are that they have erred.
If that is the case then Labour have fallen for the obvious trap. Can they really be that thick?
Notwithstanding 'noneoftheabove's' best efforts, I do think the LibDem message will resonate loud and clear with a large part of the country: the 55% who are now Remainers.
Bin Brexit. Bollocks to Brexit. Remain in the EU. However you wish to describe it, it's absolutely clear. It's beautifully simple. Everything is in place. It requires no further negotiations. It ends the whole Brexit fiasco. It's a resounding rallying call for the Election and the LibDems will do very, very, well as a result.
Again, I think you're wrong. The protests on Saturday were real, widespread and visceral. On Tuesday 1.5 million people were, I'm told, watching events live on the Parliament Channel. The Parliament Channel. Just stop and consider that for a second. Finally, twitter has been awash with this for days: some of the many trends going truly viral e.g. Rees-Mogg's horrific slouching error and Jess Phillips last night.
Johnson has done what Theresa May never quite achieved: unite the Opposition in Parliament and the country. As Lewis Goodall put in that article I linked (do read it if you haven't already): whilst people despaired of Theresa May they despise Boris Johnson.
Johnson would be found out by people when under real scrutiny in 5 hours let alone 5 weeks. He already looks deeply uncomfortable. Under the spotlight he will be exposed for what most of us on here have seen: a shyster and a sham.
I think you're right about the depth of Remainiac feeling but you're over-estimating the breadth. I was at the Stop The Coup demo in Leeds last weekend (OK, my nephews where at it, I just crossed the road through it, but I crossed the road solidarity-ly) and it really seemed like the usual left-wing political people.
I'd put the hard-core Bollocks To Brexit vote at maybe 20% tops. Then another 20% or so generally think it's a dumb idea, and now probably another 15% don't have a strong opinion but sort of wish it would go away. In contrast, I'd say the Leaver hard-core is quite a lot bigger, certainly over 30%.
Byronic, Johnson will never be a man of the people. Farage, despite his private school education, can almost pull it off. Etonian Johnson with William Rees-Mogg by his side? No chance.
As Mike Smithson regularly reminds those with short memories, Johnson never performs in practice as well as the polling suggests.
He's also turning out to be a piss-poor speaker.
The Conservatives under Johnson-Cummings have achieved the remarkable feat of publicly ripping themselves apart whilst making Jeremy Corbyn appear statesmanlike and principled.
It's over. For Johnson.
Interesting you are so confident it is all over for Johnson.
I am in a charitable mood so I am going to give you the opportunity of backing your proclamations with a straight bet on most seats at the next GE (Tory v Labour).
Any stake you like on Labour and i'll match it on the Tories.
Very bad value. Lab are 3.95 for most seats on Betfair.
I have not met a person yet who is impressed by BoZo as PM so as to switch votes. I work in a mostly female workplace and he is widely despised for his lying and bullying. He is going to go down in flames during an election.
I got on Labour at 5.5 last week. Might take a bit of profit now, thanks for alerting me.
Again, I think you're wrong. The protests on Saturday were real, widespread and visceral. On Tuesday 1.5 million people were, I'm told, watching events live on the Parliament Channel. The Parliament Channel. Just stop and consider that for a second. Finally, twitter has been awash with this for days: some of the many trends going truly viral e.g. Rees-Mogg's horrific slouching error and Jess Phillips last night.
Johnson has done what Theresa May never quite achieved: unite the Opposition in Parliament and the country. As Lewis Goodall put in that article I linked (do read it if you haven't already): whilst people despaired of Theresa May they despise Boris Johnson.
Johnson would be found out by people when under real scrutiny in 5 hours let alone 5 weeks. He already looks deeply uncomfortable. Under the spotlight he will be exposed for what most of us on here have seen: a shyster and a sham.
You put your faith in Parliament Channel viewing figures, 'horrific' slouching, Boris being 'despised' etc etc.
Maybe Boris IS going to be destroyed at the next election so i'm going to put a limit on the bet I offered you of £10k.
A bit frit I know but you've almost convinced me with your arguments.
My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.
Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.
We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
How can Johnson come back with a deal like May's when he has made dropping the backstop a red line and kicked out a load of MPs who voted for May's deal? He is committed to no deal now, whatever he says in public about getting a deal at the last minute, because he is insisting on something that the EU cannot agree to. Your fear for our country is wholly justified.
Boris has to bring the WDA back as amended with labour and TM before her resignation.
It is part of the no deal act (Kinnock amendment) and sponsored by 17 labour mps. Even McDonnell recognised it today on Sky suggesting it could be a compromise if the government conceded on a few issues
He cannot bring the WA back. His cabinet would not vote for it, neither would dozens of his MPs. It might get through Parliament with opposition support, but it would totally destroy the Conservative Party while turbocharging the Brexit Party. Johnson can only go for No Deal now. There are no other options.
He has to under the no deal act. He may not before the council meeting but he cannot ignore it unless of course he wins a GE and grts rid of the no deal act.
As far as destroying the party it looks like that is happening anyway
Very bad value. Lab are 3.95 for most seats on Betfair.
I have not met a person yet who is impressed by BoZo as PM so as to switch votes. I work in a mostly female workplace and he is widely despised for his lying and bullying. He is going to go down in flames during an election.
Terrible bet for the individual concerned but it emphasises the point about how much misinformed bluster there is about Boris being finished or being despised or even 'going down in flames'.
It is hope and desperation being paraded as considered thought which is why there are going to be so many devastated remainer/Labourite after the next GE.
I am not sure, clearly people want their side to win, but if it is to be a Johnson majority then:
- no deal is better with a mandate than no mandate. if the country has voted for it then as a democratic country so be it and we will have to cope with the disaster - the chance of a deal is better with a party, any party, having a majority.
Id expect tories to have most seats but either such a small majority they still cant govern, or in a hung parliament with no one willing to help them out. It wouldnt really achieve much either.
Very bad value. Lab are 3.95 for most seats on Betfair.
I have not met a person yet who is impressed by BoZo as PM so as to switch votes. I work in a mostly female workplace and he is widely despised for his lying and bullying. He is going to go down in flames during an election.
Terrible bet for the individual concerned but it emphasises the point about how much misinformed bluster there is about Boris being finished or being despised or even 'going down in flames'.
It is hope and desperation being paraded as considered thought which is why there are going to be so many devastated remainer/Labourite after the next GE.
No it's more a demonstration on how the next election is likely to play out.
Scotland will be won by the SNP Southern England the Lib Dems will surge Northern England - Boris and co are seeking voters who could never vote Tory..
Labour doesn't need to win many seats, they just need to hold on to the ones they've got. The Tories need to win 20 or so to make up for obvious loses.
And the ideal solution for most people is for Labour to be the biggest party but to have lost seats so Corbyn is replaced by someone the Lib Dems / SNP want to work with.
2. Insist on PR for Westminster. That'll allow the pro-EU consensus parties to put a permanent lid on the Brexit movement. I'm not persuaded that leaving the EU is as visceral an issue for quite as many people as independence is in Scotland, and the moderate middle of the British public is heartily sick of it. A nationalist party campaigning to implement the original Leave vote is highly unlikely ever to win enough support to form a single-party administration in a proportional system, and can therefore be thwarted
.
You honestly don't envision a circumstance where Con + Brex hits 50% and we go out that way?
Con + Ukip was 49.4% of the vote at GE 2015... imagine what it will be if Brexit gets cancelled by a Westminster stitch-up.
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
I am going to plant my flag in the HYFUD side of the line. I’m quite surprised that so many here think we’re close to seeing the killing off of a No deal Brexit or Brexit entirely. As far as I can see, it’s closer to happening than ever.
No Deal and Revocation have both become more probable in the last six weeks.
The mushy middle had receded, which is good for intellectual purity. And bad for the lives of real, actual human beings.
I am going to plant my flag in the HYFUD side of the line. I’m quite surprised that so many here think we’re close to seeing the killing off of a No deal Brexit or Brexit entirely. As far as I can see, it’s closer to happening than ever.
No Deal and Revocation have both become more probable in the last six weeks.
The mushy middle had receded, which is good for intellectual purity. And bad for the lives of real, actual human beings.
But the gap between the two is far closer than either side would like to admit.
The mushy middle may plump for whichever option proffers the greater prospect of the most rapid resolution to the whole saga.
I agree. And even now an EEA/EFTA exit woud bring the vast majority of people together.
Yes, as tested on here. But it’s a brave leader who fights for that.
Notwithstanding 'noneoftheabove's' best efforts, I do think the LibDem message will resonate loud and clear with a large part of the country: the 55% who are now Remainers.
Bin Brexit. Bollocks to Brexit. Remain in the EU. However you wish to describe it, it's absolutely clear. It's beautifully simple. Everything is in place. It requires no further negotiations. It ends the whole Brexit fiasco. It's a resounding rallying call for the Election and the LibDems will do very, very, well as a result.
A really good article. This is why Labour should be ensuring the election is after 31 October. All the smoke signals now, however, are that they have erred.
Labour MPs have extraordinary power right now. From what I can tell, their mood is aligned with the vast majority of members: do not give Johnson what he wants. If Corbyn goes against that he may first of all find he does not have the backing in the Commons, but if he does secure enough votes and then loses the election - the most likely outcome - he will have to take personal responsibility. There will be no hiding place. For these reasons I suspect, though I cannot be sure, that he will fall into line behind Starmer and McDonnell.
Essentially, we are dealing with a man of very limited intelligence who genuinely cannot understand what is going on. He needs ot be coached through it and it will depend on who he listens to - the Morning Star Brexiteers in his office or the Shadow Cabinet and PLP.
‘Bollocks to Brexit’ was a promising start for the Lib Dems. Unfortunately, Swinson had to abandon it, or lose her own seat. She is entirely dependent on SCon tactical votes to cling on.
“Bollocks to Brexit” is certainly memorable but is not shared by Labour. It may help the Lib Dems but they are unlikely to form the next government on their own.
Anyway I have to make my own elevator pitch today so I will check in later.
Who knows what will have happened by then?!
It’s also rather childish.
I’m sure it animates and activates the core street activists and twitterati.
It probably plays far less well with floating voters.
The paradox of Brexit is that it has been very effective in turning previously lacklustre enthusiasm into intense europhilia, and producing the biggest pro EU demonstrations of our era. Never before have we seen the EU flag waved so publically and energetically. Bollocks to Brexit is a very popular message, albeit to only half the population.
It’s popular amongst about 15-20% of the population.
2. Insist on PR for Westminster. That'll allow the pro-EU consensus parties to put a permanent lid on the Brexit movement. I'm not persuaded that leaving the EU is as visceral an issue for quite as many people as independence is in Scotland, and the moderate middle of the British public is heartily sick of it. A nationalist party campaigning to implement the original Leave vote is highly unlikely ever to win enough support to form a single-party administration in a proportional system, and can therefore be thwarted
.
You honestly don't envision a circumstance where Con + Brex hits 50% and we go out that way?
Con + Ukip was 49.4% of the vote at GE 2015... imagine what it will be if Brexit gets cancelled by a Westminster stitch-up.
In 2015 Con support would have been pretty balanced between leave and remain. Seems like a long time ago.
The abiding lesson from this is that no referendum result can be enacted without the consent of Parliament. And not only the consent but the support. Brexit had neither; pretending to implement it isn't enough.
On that basis, a Scottish Independence vote is also doomed. MPs have decided that they rule OK.
Unfortunately for them, the voters don't agree. So that needs fixing. I can see only one winner, and it isn't the MPs.
As I've mentioned before, the poshos don't like taking orders from the lower classes and the MPs are no exception, which means politics will continue to be febrile. A GE now based on this clash will be toxic, but I think it's inevitable to clear the air.
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
If we are not out, Nigel Fucking Farage stands candidates in all seats and splits his vote
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
If the UK is out when an election takes place it will be on a No Deal basis. It then depends on how far into No Deal we are. His best chance of a big majority is to get an election before we leave.
I feel sorry for Brenda "form Bristol". There must be a shed load of jornos camping around the corner waiting to scoop her reaction when the GE is agreed.
‘Bollocks to Brexit’ was a promising start for the Lib Dems. Unfortunately, Swinson had to abandon it, or lose her own seat. She is entirely dependent on SCon tactical votes to cling on.
“Bollocks to Brexit” is certainly memorable but is not shared by Labour. It may help the Lib Dems but they are unlikely to form the next government on their own.
Anyway I have to make my own elevator pitch today so I will check in later.
Who knows what will have happened by then?!
It’s also rather childish.
I’m sure it animates and activates the core street activists and twitterati.
It probably plays far less well with floating voters.
The paradox of Brexit is that it has been very effective in turning previously lacklustre enthusiasm into intense europhilia, and producing the biggest pro EU demonstrations of our era. Never before have we seen the EU flag waved so publically and energetically. Bollocks to Brexit is a very popular message, albeit to only half the population.
It’s popular amongst about 15-20% of the population.
A really good article. This is why Labour should be ensuring the election is after 31 October. All the smoke signals now, however, are that they have erred.
Labour MPs have extraordinary power right now. From what I can tell, their mood is aligned with the vast majority of members: do not give Johnson what he wants. If Corbyn goes against that he may first of all find he does not have the backing in the Commons, but if he does secure enough votes and then loses the election - the most likely outcome - he will have to take personal responsibility. There will be no hiding place. For these reasons I suspect, though I cannot be sure, that he will fall into line behind Starmer and McDonnell.
Essentially, we are dealing with a man of very limited intelligence who genuinely cannot understand what is going on. He needs ot be coached through it and it will depend on who he listens to - the Morning Star Brexiteers in his office or the Shadow Cabinet and PLP.
Jezza is now on this third conservative leader, I suspect hes more than capable of deciding what he wants and his membership will fall in behind him.
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
If we are not out, Nigel Fucking Farage stands candidates in all seats and splits his vote
He's going to do that anyway, there's no indication they won't field candidates at the next election under some circumstances.
Excellent header. The idea of getting "it" over with, whoever gets to define what "it" is, is indeed at the core of our current political battle and the key to success for all parties involved in it.
Agreed - that’s why not I’m not convinced labour’s Brexit pitch works
Tory: we are standing up for you LibDems: bollocks to Brexit Labour: Sod Brexit let’s talk about schools’n’hospitals
My gut tells me that a lot of people are angry about the way Parliament has behaved
But I can’t tell if that’s my view coming through or an independent projection
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
If the UK is out when an election takes place it will be on a No Deal basis. It then depends on how far into No Deal we are. His best chance of a big majority is to get an election before we leave.
That can't happen now because of the act passed yesterday.
‘Bollocks to Brexit’ was a promising start for the Lib Dems. Unfortunately, Swinson had to abandon it, or lose her own seat. She is entirely dependent on SCon tactical votes to cling on.
“Bollocks to Brexit” is certainly memorable but is not shared by Labour. It may help the Lib Dems but they are unlikely to form the next government on their own.
Anyway I have to make my own elevator pitch today so I will check in later.
Who knows what will have happened by then?!
It’s also rather childish.
I’m sure it animates and activates the core street activists and twitterati.
It probably plays far less well with floating voters.
The paradox of Brexit is that it has been very effective in turning previously lacklustre enthusiasm into intense europhilia, and producing the biggest pro EU demonstrations of our era. Never before have we seen the EU flag waved so publically and energetically. Bollocks to Brexit is a very popular message, albeit to only half the population.
It’s popular amongst about 15-20% of the population.
2. Insist on PR for Westminster. That'll allow the pro-EU consensus parties to put a permanent lid on the Brexit movement. I'm not persuaded that leaving the EU is as visceral an issue for quite as many people as independence is in Scotland, and the moderate middle of the British public is heartily sick of it. A nationalist party campaigning to implement the original Leave vote is highly unlikely ever to win enough support to form a single-party administration in a proportional system, and can therefore be thwarted
I think this shows a lack of understanding as to how PR would likely shape a fairly binary issue such as this. The Conservative party was happy to ignore the rise of Eurosceptism, while First Past the Post kept the impact to a negligible level. Dave decided to tackle the issue head-on, once UKIP started polling regularly above 20% and were in a position to challenge his seats count even under FPTP.
Under PR this would almost certainly have happened sooner. You'd be in a position where the mainstream part of the centre right (let's assume this stays at the Conservatives) is forced to either ape the Brexit Party's policies or else include them in a coalition.
While lots of people find Farage a pain ITA, I can't begin to imagine what they'd think if upon No-Brexit, he was followed as leader a few years hence by someone that was truly right wing but had formal influence over government. Imagine something resembling an English DUP but with 100 MPs.
Brexit will release the pressure out of the cooker, the very act of the referendum having driven immigration down to 9th on the list of voters' concerns. Cancel Brexit in a stitch up, combined with PR in the way you describe, and those in the fuzzy middle ground (let's face it, most of us) are likely to be pretty displeased with what would follow.
An interesting thought occurred to me - that we as a whole absolutely hate the idea of the man in the shadows behind a political leader- Milne, Cummings, Timothy, Coulson,Mcbride,Campbell- you have to go back to Jonathan Haslam under Major to find a press secretary/guru/advisor who was not reviled and then it was a civil service rather than politicised role.
The cacophony of Brexit is not just bad for our politics, it is drowning almost everything else out. So we had Javid yesterday announce billions of pounds of additional spending, the biggest annual increase since the madness of Brown was in full flow, and he barely gets a headline off the financial press.
This was a massive change in government policy. The ascetic, unimaginative world view of Hammond based on smaller government, lower taxes, squeezing government spending and doing as little as possible has been replaced by something that is much closer to what at least Ed Miliband would have gone for if not the full McDonnell who doesn't want to just turn on the taps but make good every cut in the last decade, apparently all at
From a political point of view the gap between the main parties has got a lot smaller. It won't stop the usual attacks on Labour profligacy of course but will they be credible? I fear the disillusioned such as @TSE, @richard_nabavi and @DavidHerdson will once again be wondering where the hell their party has gone.
I’m certainly not happy about it. Education needs extra resources, but the splurge is very Labour lite and also (dare I say it) populist.
I use that word because it’s hosing money for electorate effect rather than for what’s right for good Government. I haven’t seen the numbers yet but going on what’s reported that must bring to end any hope of eliminating all of the deficit.
Where money is really needed is in affordable housing, better grading the transition to Universal Credit, social care, justice and prisons, the foreign office and defence. And that should be slow and steady and dependent upon overall fiscal conservatism and the state of the economy.
But, I suppose there aren’t many votes in those.
In fairness they all got a splurge yesterday as well, especially police and prisons. But 1 year increases does very little other than address existing budget deficits, you cannot plan for an extension until there is an assured future income flow over the medium term.
They got minuscule amounts in relation to the problems they face, and far too much is being spunked on the police. In the absence of anything else being fixed extra police officers will simply interfere (“police”) more of our lives.
It’s irresponsible because it’s irresponsible. It chips away at a core Conservative USP. Share the benefits of responsible growth was far better.
2. Insist on PR for Westminster. That'll allow the pro-EU consensus parties to put a permanent lid on the Brexit movement. I'm not persuaded that leaving the EU is as visceral an issue for quite as many people as independence is in Scotland, and the moderate middle of the British public is heartily sick of it. A nationalist party campaigning to implement the original Leave vote is highly unlikely ever to win enough support to form a single-party administration in a proportional system, and can therefore be thwarted
.
You honestly don't envision a circumstance where Con + Brex hits 50% and we go out that way?
Con + Ukip was 49.4% of the vote at GE 2015... imagine what it will be if Brexit gets cancelled by a Westminster stitch-up.
It's unlikely. At GE15 a lot of Tories were remainers. Most of those votes have been lost. The % of voters who care about Brexit above all else used to be 10%. Currently it's about 35%. Enough under FPTP but never enough under PR.
‘Bollocks to Brexit’ was a promising start for the Lib Dems. Unfortunately, Swinson had to abandon it, or lose her own seat. She is entirely dependent on SCon tactical votes to cling on.
“Bollocks to Brexit” is certainly memorable but is not shared by Labour. It may help the Lib Dems but they are unlikely to form the next government on their own.
Anyway I have to make my own elevator pitch today so I will check in later.
Who knows what will have happened by then?!
It’s also rather childish.
I’m sure it animates and activates the core street activists and twitterati.
It probably plays far less well with floating voters.
The paradox of Brexit is that it has been very effective in turning previously lacklustre enthusiasm into intense europhilia, and producing the biggest pro EU demonstrations of our era. Never before have we seen the EU flag waved so publically and energetically. Bollocks to Brexit is a very popular message, albeit to only half the population.
It’s popular amongst about 15-20% of the population.
It’s the rest you need to worry about.
15-20% on average. In parts of the country much better than that, and some areas much less.
Indeed one of the forthcoming problems for the LDs is so many former Tory Remainers joining, voting and winning as Lib Dems as to unbalance the party.
Excellent header. The idea of getting "it" over with, whoever gets to define what "it" is, is indeed at the core of our current political battle and the key to success for all parties involved in it.
Agreed - that’s why not I’m not convinced labour’s Brexit pitch works
Tory: we are standing up for you LibDems: bollocks to Brexit Labour: Sod Brexit let’s talk about schools’n’hospitals
My gut tells me that a lot of people are angry about the way Parliament has behaved
But I can’t tell if that’s my view coming through or an independent projection
People are angry about MPs, but jobs schoiols and housing are more important. If the Tories go with nothing in the goody bag they will get hammered.
looking at it with fresh eyes the LDs have now the weakest stance. The current legislative shenanigans have sort of taken the urgency off the table.
An interesting thought occurred to me - that we as a whole absolutely hate the idea of the man in the shadows behind a political leader- Milne, Cummings, Timothy, Coulson,Mcbride,Campbell- you have to go back to Jonathan Haslam under Major to find a press secretary/guru/advisor who was not reviled and then it was a civil service rather than politicised role.
It's an enduring feudal myth, it suits the leader's enemies to have a shadowy villain behind the throne, but it also kind of suits the leader, because they can leave that guy to do their dirty work for them, and then fire them and pivot if there's too much blowback.
‘Bollocks to Brexit’ was a promising start for the Lib Dems. Unfortunately, Swinson had to abandon it, or lose her own seat. She is entirely dependent on SCon tactical votes to cling on.
“Bollocks to Brexit” is certainly memorable but is not shared by Labour. It may help the Lib Dems but they are unlikely to form the next government on their own.
Anyway I have to make my own elevator pitch today so I will check in later.
Who knows what will have happened by then?!
It’s also rather childish.
I’m sure it animates and activates the core street activists and twitterati.
It probably plays far less well with floating voters.
The paradox of Brexit is that it has been very effective in turning previously lacklustre enthusiasm into intense europhilia, and producing the biggest pro EU demonstrations of our era. Never before have we seen the EU flag waved so publically and energetically. Bollocks to Brexit is a very popular message, albeit to only half the population.
It’s popular amongst about 15-20% of the population.
It’s the rest you need to worry about.
15-20% on average. In parts of the country much better than that, and some areas much less.
Indeed one of the forthcoming problems for the LDs is so many former Tory Remainers joining, voting and winning as Lib Dems as to unbalance the party.
Does anyone think that Boris Johnson is not the worst PM of all time?
I've not read enough about 50 of the previous office holders to make that judgement. And I suspect neither have you.
Well I've been interested in politics all my life, or at least since adolescence. That's 14 PM's and while Churchill wasn't impressive, by the time I got to 'appreciate' him he wasn't really PM any more; just going through the motions. So certainly, of the rest Johnson is the least worthy of respect.
Excellent header. The idea of getting "it" over with, whoever gets to define what "it" is, is indeed at the core of our current political battle and the key to success for all parties involved in it.
Agreed - that’s why not I’m not convinced labour’s Brexit pitch works
Tory: we are standing up for you LibDems: bollocks to Brexit Labour: Sod Brexit let’s talk about schools’n’hospitals
My gut tells me that a lot of people are angry about the way Parliament has behaved
But I can’t tell if that’s my view coming through or an independent projection
People are angry about MPs, but jobs schoiols and housing are more important. If the Tories go with nothing in the goody bag they will get hammered.
looking at it with fresh eyes the LDs have now the weakest stance. The current legislative shenanigans have sort of taken the urgency off the table.
The Tories spent all the money in their goody bag yesterday afternoon. I suspect that will be a problem as it hasn't exactly made any headlines today.
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
What matters in the election is: what does Farage think? If Farage blames Boris, or loses patience with him, and decides to go all out for a Brexit Party win, Boris is sunk.
Excellent header. The idea of getting "it" over with, whoever gets to define what "it" is, is indeed at the core of our current political battle and the key to success for all parties involved in it.
Agreed - that’s why not I’m not convinced labour’s Brexit pitch works
Tory: we are standing up for you LibDems: bollocks to Brexit Labour: Sod Brexit let’s talk about schools’n’hospitals
My gut tells me that a lot of people are angry about the way Parliament has behaved
But I can’t tell if that’s my view coming through or an independent projection
People are angry about MPs, but jobs schoiols and housing are more important. If the Tories go with nothing in the goody bag they will get hammered.
looking at it with fresh eyes the LDs have now the weakest stance. The current legislative shenanigans have sort of taken the urgency off the table.
The Tories spent all the money in their goody bag yesterday afternoon. I suspect that will be a problem as it hasn't exactly made any headlines today.
Na, it means they can talk about it in the election campaign
An interesting thought occurred to me - that we as a whole absolutely hate the idea of the man in the shadows behind a political leader- Milne, Cummings, Timothy, Coulson,Mcbride,Campbell- you have to go back to Jonathan Haslam under Major to find a press secretary/guru/advisor who was not reviled and then it was a civil service rather than politicised role.
This is a good point. Whether the hate is really appropriate is another matter.
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
What matters in the election is: what does Farage think? If Farage blames Boris, or loses patience with him, and decides to go all out for a Brexit Party win, Boris is sunk.
Yes this is the only thing that can stop Boris now. Fascinated to see how that unfolds in the next couple of weeks.
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
If the UK is out when an election takes place it will be on a No Deal basis. It then depends on how far into No Deal we are. His best chance of a big majority is to get an election before we leave.
That can't happen now because of the act passed yesterday.
It can if Corbyn agrees to one. This is all in Corbyn's hands now. He gets to decide when we go to the polls. A large part of the Cummings/Johnson plan has been predicated on his sheer stupidity allied with his complete unelectability. That is not an unreasonable strategy. But they have lost control of events, which they did not plan.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
That will go when we do have an election. Meanwhile Boris now has a major problem with trust. He says one thing and does another. That’s a real problem.
‘Bollocks to Brexit’ was a promising start for the Lib Dems. Unfortunately, Swinson had to abandon it, or lose her own seat. She is entirely dependent on SCon tactical votes to cling on.
“Bollocks to Brexit” is certainly memorable but is not shared by Labour. It may help the Lib Dems but they are unlikely to form the next government on their own.
Anyway I have to make my own elevator pitch today so I will check in later.
Who knows what will have happened by then?!
It’s also rather childish.
I’m sure it animates and activates the core street activists and twitterati.
It probably plays far less well with floating voters.
The paradox of Brexit is that it has been very effective in turning previously lacklustre enthusiasm into intense europhilia, and producing the biggest pro EU demonstrations of our era. Never before have we seen the EU flag waved so publically and energetically. Bollocks to Brexit is a very popular message, albeit to only half the population.
It’s popular amongst about 15-20% of the population.
It’s the rest you need to worry about.
15-20% on average. In parts of the country much better than that, and some areas much less.
Indeed one of the forthcoming problems for the LDs is so many former Tory Remainers joining, voting and winning as Lib Dems as to unbalance the party.
You have to decide what it is you really want.
I would like to see the LDs back on 50+ seats, and that looks far more viable than it did post 2015 GE. I am quite happy with Tories like Phillip Lee or Sarah Wollaston joining, I have always been a fiscally dry Orange Booker.
‘Bollocks to Brexit’ was a promising start for the Lib Dems. Unfortunately, Swinson had to abandon it, or lose her own seat. She is entirely dependent on SCon tactical votes to cling on.
“Bollocks to Brexit” is certainly memorable but is not shared by Labour. It may help the Lib Dems but they are unlikely to form the next government on their own.
Anyway I have to make my own elevator pitch today so I will check in later.
Who knows what will have happened by then?!
It’s also rather childish.
I’m sure it animates and activates the core street activists and twitterati.
It probably plays far less well with floating voters.
The paradox of Brexit is that it has been very effective in turning previously lacklustre enthusiasm into intense europhilia, and producing the biggest pro EU demonstrations of our era. Never before have we seen the EU flag waved so publically and energetically. Bollocks to Brexit is a very popular message, albeit to only half the population.
It’s popular amongst about 15-20% of the population.
It’s the rest you need to worry about.
15-20% on average. In parts of the country much better than that, and some areas much less.
Indeed one of the forthcoming problems for the LDs is so many former Tory Remainers joining, voting and winning as Lib Dems as to unbalance the party.
Yes, this occurred to me recently too. They have to be very careful with this with their more vaguely metropolitan-liberal, urban, maybe rather than southwestern and rural support, particularly if there are more parliamentary defections from the tories.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
That assumes that that message is still popular. It may be with some diehard Leavers, but perhaps a number of floating voters will start asking who they might blame for this whole mess. Maybe they might notice that Boris Johnson was one of the people that claimed in 2016 that it was going to be easy, and it was "going to be great".
Morning all and what a farce yesterday was. A people v MPs election is clearly coming. Boris now needs to press the "nuclear option" and advise the HoC he will either ignore the Surrender Act when it receives Royal Assent or alternatively he will ask the EU for an extension to A50 and then exercise his veto to stop it.
With the possible exception of Scotland, voters have to decide in a GE which is more important to them 1) stopping Brexit by not voting Tory 2) risking Corbyn PM taxing them out of their overpriced homes and over extended personal debt in the leafy suburbs by not voting Tory.
Clearly there is a growing group of Labour MPs in Brexit supporting seats who can see this not ending well for them. Boris is out and about today campaigning, Corbyn is sitting in Westminster wringing his hands like Pontius Pilate.
Many Tory/LibDem marginals are in prosperous areas. Can these voters really afford to risk a Corbyn government. Jo Swinson is likely to have seen her kids leave school and go to University before we see a Liberal become PM again.
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
If the UK is out when an election takes place it will be on a No Deal basis. It then depends on how far into No Deal we are. His best chance of a big majority is to get an election before we leave.
That can't happen now because of the act passed yesterday.
It can if Corbyn agrees to one. This is all in Corbyn's hands now. He gets to decide when we go to the polls. A large part of the Cummings/Johnson plan has been predicated on his sheer stupidity allied with his complete unelectability. That is not an unreasonable strategy. But they have lost control of events, which they did not plan.
How does that lead to an election after a no-deal Brexit? They want an election before Brexit day. Like I said, thanks to that new law there is now no way that there will be an election after a no deal brexit. It's either before Brexit day, or after an extension has been agreed.
- no deal is better with a mandate than no mandate. if the country has voted for it then as a democratic country so be it and we will have to cope with the disaster
Having a tooth extracted is better with an anaesthetic than withoute one.
Morning all and what a farce yesterday was. A people v MPs election is clearly coming. Boris now needs to press the "nuclear option" and advise the HoC he will either ignore the Surrender Act when it receives Royal Assent or alternatively he will ask the EU for an extension to A50 and then exercise his veto to stop it.
With the possible exception of Scotland, voters have to decide in a GE which is more important to them 1) stopping Brexit by not voting Tory 2) risking Corbyn PM taxing them out of their overpriced homes and over extended personal debt in the leafy suburbs by not voting Tory.
Clearly there is a growing group of Labour MPs in Brexit supporting seats who can see this not ending well for them. Boris is out and about today campaigning, Corbyn is sitting in Westminster wringing his hands like Pontius Pilate.
Many Tory/LibDem marginals are in prosperous areas. Can these voters really afford to risk a Corbyn government. Jo Swinson is likely to have seen her kids leave school and go to University before we see a Liberal become PM again.
There is no veto on the extension. The council considers that without the UK in the room.
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
If the UK is out when an election takes place it will be on a No Deal basis. It then depends on how far into No Deal we are. His best chance of a big majority is to get an election before we leave.
That can't happen now because of the act passed yesterday.
It can if Corbyn agrees to one. This is all in Corbyn's hands now. He gets to decide when we go to the polls. A large part of the Cummings/Johnson plan has been predicated on his sheer stupidity allied with his complete unelectability. That is not an unreasonable strategy. But they have lost control of events, which they did not plan.
How does that lead to an election after a no-deal Brexit? They want an election before Brexit day. Like I said, thanks to that new law there is now no way that there will be an election after a no deal brexit. It's either before Brexit day, or after an extension has been agreed.
Yep, fair point - I did not read your first post carefully enough. Corbyn decides the date, though.
Excellent header. The idea of getting "it" over with, whoever gets to define what "it" is, is indeed at the core of our current political battle and the key to success for all parties involved in it.
Agreed - that’s why not I’m not convinced labour’s Brexit pitch works
Tory: we are standing up for you LibDems: bollocks to Brexit Labour: Sod Brexit let’s talk about schools’n’hospitals
My gut tells me that a lot of people are angry about the way Parliament has behaved
But I can’t tell if that’s my view coming through or an independent projection
People are angry about MPs, but jobs schoiols and housing are more important. If the Tories go with nothing in the goody bag they will get hammered.
looking at it with fresh eyes the LDs have now the weakest stance. The current legislative shenanigans have sort of taken the urgency off the table.
The Tories spent all the money in their goody bag yesterday afternoon. I suspect that will be a problem as it hasn't exactly made any headlines today.
Id be surprised if they had, that will be their starter for 10. This will be a wild promsies election
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
That assumes that that message is still popular. It may be with some diehard Leavers, but perhaps a number of floating voters will start asking who they might blame for this whole mess. Maybe they might notice that Boris Johnson was one of the people that claimed in 2016 that it was going to be easy, and it was "going to be great".
A poll a poll my kingdom for a poll.
Makes you wonder actually whether Bozza saw some positive internal polling numbers in between PMQs and the election motion. He seemed much perkier. Either that or he had a nice lunch.
‘Bollocks to Brexit’ was a promising start for the Lib Dems. Unfortunately, Swinson had to abandon it, or lose her own seat. She is entirely dependent on SCon tactical votes to cling on.
“Bollocks to Brexit” is certainly memorable but is not shared by Labour. It may help the Lib Dems but they are unlikely to form the next government on their own.
Anyway I have to make my own elevator pitch today so I will check in later.
Who knows what will have happened by then?!
It’s also rather childish.
I’m sure it animates and activates the core street activists and twitterati.
It probably plays far less well with floating voters.
The paradox of Brexit is that it has been very effective in turning previously lacklustre enthusiasm into intense europhilia, and producing the biggest pro EU demonstrations of our era. Never before have we seen the EU flag waved so publically and energetically. Bollocks to Brexit is a very popular message, albeit to only half the population.
It’s popular amongst about 15-20% of the population.
It’s the rest you need to worry about.
15-20% on average. In parts of the country much better than that, and some areas much less.
Indeed one of the forthcoming problems for the LDs is so many former Tory Remainers joining, voting and winning as Lib Dems as to unbalance the party.
You have to decide what it is you really want.
I would like to see the LDs back on 50+ seats, and that looks far more viable than it did post 2015 GE. I am quite happy with Tories like Phillip Lee or Sarah Wollaston joining, I have always been a fiscally dry Orange Booker.
And Lee's stance on same sex marriage?
When he was a Tory, I am sure you called him a homophobe. Now he is your bestie.
It is like Michael Brown's dirty money, isn't it. The LibDems like to portray themselves as very principled, but in fact they have none.
I am going to plant my flag in the HYFUD side of the line. I’m quite surprised that so many here think we’re close to seeing the killing off of a No deal Brexit or Brexit entirely. As far as I can see, it’s closer to happening than ever.
No Deal and Revocation have both become more probable in the last six weeks.
The mushy middle had receded, which is good for intellectual purity. And bad for the lives of real, actual human beings.
I am going to plant my flag in the HYFUD side of the line. I’m quite surprised that so many here think we’re close to seeing the killing off of a No deal Brexit or Brexit entirely. As far as I can see, it’s closer to happening than ever.
No Deal and Revocation have both become more probable in the last six weeks.
The mushy middle had receded, which is good for intellectual purity. And bad for the lives of real, actual human beings.
But the gap between the two is far closer than either side would like to admit.
The mushy middle may plump for whichever option proffers the greater prospect of the most rapid resolution to the whole saga.
Which is why fed-upness is a necessary condition to resolution. When most people are so fed up they will accept a suboptimal outcome and don't want ever to talk about it again. People are pretty fed up, but not quite fed up enough, yet, in my estimation.
Morning all and what a farce yesterday was. A people v MPs election is clearly coming. Boris now needs to press the "nuclear option" and advise the HoC he will either ignore the Surrender Act when it receives Royal Assent or alternatively he will ask the EU for an extension to A50 and then exercise his veto to stop it.
With the possible exception of Scotland, voters have to decide in a GE which is more important to them 1) stopping Brexit by not voting Tory 2) risking Corbyn PM taxing them out of their overpriced homes and over extended personal debt in the leafy suburbs by not voting Tory.
Clearly there is a growing group of Labour MPs in Brexit supporting seats who can see this not ending well for them. Boris is out and about today campaigning, Corbyn is sitting in Westminster wringing his hands like Pontius Pilate.
Many Tory/LibDem marginals are in prosperous areas. Can these voters really afford to risk a Corbyn government. Jo Swinson is likely to have seen her kids leave school and go to University before we see a Liberal become PM again.
Of all the rubbish that is sometimes posted here one of the most enduring and rubbishy is the idea that there can be a situation of 'People vs MP's (or Parliament)'.
MP's are not some breed apart; they are people; we voted for them and if we knew what we we were doing when we voted to Leave (questionable) then we knew what we were doing when we elected representatives, ..... representatives, not delegates.
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It is part of the no deal act (Kinnock amendment) and sponsored by 17 labour mps. Even McDonnell recognised it today on Sky suggesting it could be a compromise if the government conceded on a few issues
I have not met a person yet who is impressed by BoZo as PM so as to switch votes. I work in a mostly female workplace and he is widely despised for his lying and bullying. He is going to go down in flames during an election.
I fully accept the headers are far more skeptical of no deal, I am talking about the posters.
I’m sure it animates and activates the core street activists and twitterati.
It probably plays far less well with floating voters.
Johnson has done what Theresa May never quite achieved: unite the Opposition in Parliament and the country. As Lewis Goodall put in that article I linked (do read it if you haven't already): whilst people despaired of Theresa May they despise Boris Johnson.
Johnson would be found out by people when under real scrutiny in 5 hours let alone 5 weeks. He already looks deeply uncomfortable. Under the spotlight he will be exposed for what most of us on here have seen: a shyster and a sham.
A GE campaign will therefore play to his strengths. He will be very good at goading the other side to fall into his traps.
Everyone will know what they are but he’s so effective at creating fury and emotion that provokes many simply can’t help themselves.
The election result may hinge on the self-control of the opposition forces, and the savviness of the electorate overall.
Does anyone think that Boris Johnson is not the worst PM of all time?
The SNP said the same yesterday agreeing the 15th October and McDonnell has just confirmed they want an election and are in discussion with the parties to agree
A GE is coming and it is more than likely on the 15th October
What are you afraid off
The voters say, "sure, yeah, whatever you want - just get it bloody done man...."
It is hope and desperation being paraded as considered thought which is why there are going to be so many devastated remainer/Labourite after the next GE.
I'd put the hard-core Bollocks To Brexit vote at maybe 20% tops. Then another 20% or so generally think it's a dumb idea, and now probably another 15% don't have a strong opinion but sort of wish it would go away. In contrast, I'd say the Leaver hard-core is quite a lot bigger, certainly over 30%.
I’ve had another speculative nibble.
Maybe Boris IS going to be destroyed at the next election so i'm going to put a limit on the bet I offered you of £10k.
A bit frit I know but you've almost convinced me with your arguments.
I predict Lib Dems to get over 80 seats..
Anybody going higher?
As far as destroying the party it looks like that is happening anyway
- no deal is better with a mandate than no mandate. if the country has voted for it then as a democratic country so be it and we will have to cope with the disaster
- the chance of a deal is better with a party, any party, having a majority.
Id expect tories to have most seats but either such a small majority they still cant govern, or in a hung parliament with no one willing to help them out. It wouldnt really achieve much either.
Scotland will be won by the SNP
Southern England the Lib Dems will surge
Northern England - Boris and co are seeking voters who could never vote Tory..
Labour doesn't need to win many seats, they just need to hold on to the ones they've got. The Tories need to win 20 or so to make up for obvious loses.
And the ideal solution for most people is for Labour to be the biggest party but to have lost seats so Corbyn is replaced by someone the Lib Dems / SNP want to work with.
It is a dreadful error on their part and I find it difficult to believe they've walked straight in to such an obvious trap.
I think reports are wrong.
Con + Ukip was 49.4% of the vote at GE 2015... imagine what it will be if Brexit gets cancelled by a Westminster stitch-up.
Essentially, we are dealing with a man of very limited intelligence who genuinely cannot understand what is going on. He needs ot be coached through it and it will depend on who he listens to - the Morning Star Brexiteers in his office or the Shadow Cabinet and PLP.
It’s the rest you need to worry about.
On that basis, a Scottish Independence vote is also doomed. MPs have decided that they rule OK.
Unfortunately for them, the voters don't agree. So that needs fixing. I can see only one winner, and it isn't the MPs.
As I've mentioned before, the poshos don't like taking orders from the lower classes and the MPs are no exception, which means politics will continue to be febrile. A GE now based on this clash will be toxic, but I think it's inevitable to clear the air.
It’s the rest you need to worry about.
Tory: we are standing up for you
LibDems: bollocks to Brexit
Labour: Sod Brexit let’s talk about schools’n’hospitals
My gut tells me that a lot of people are angry about the way Parliament has behaved
But I can’t tell if that’s my view coming through or an independent projection
It’s the rest you need to worry about.
This posh vs lower classes nonsense is just that.
You might want to take a look at which party holds the bulk of them at the moment.
Under PR this would almost certainly have happened sooner. You'd be in a position where the mainstream part of the centre right (let's assume this stays at the Conservatives) is forced to either ape the Brexit Party's policies or else include them in a coalition.
While lots of people find Farage a pain ITA, I can't begin to imagine what they'd think if upon No-Brexit, he was followed as leader a few years hence by someone that was truly right wing but had formal influence over government. Imagine something resembling an English DUP but with 100 MPs.
Brexit will release the pressure out of the cooker, the very act of the referendum having driven immigration down to 9th on the list of voters' concerns. Cancel Brexit in a stitch up, combined with PR in the way you describe, and those in the fuzzy middle ground (let's face it, most of us) are likely to be pretty displeased with what would follow.
It’s irresponsible because it’s irresponsible. It chips away at a core Conservative USP. Share the benefits of responsible growth was far better.
Indeed one of the forthcoming problems for the LDs is so many former Tory Remainers joining, voting and winning as Lib Dems as to unbalance the party.
looking at it with fresh eyes the LDs have now the weakest stance. The current legislative shenanigans have sort of taken the urgency off the table.
"The Brexit base is full of rich pensioners."
Have you ever been to Boston?
The high Remain areas like Cambridge, Brighton, and Islington are full of the struggling masses?
It’s no coincidence that the richest people on here are all Brexiteers is it?
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
These are ironically the places where the ‘metropolitan liberal elite’ are losing out due to globalisation.
But I suspect it looks to the ordinary voter that Boris is trying to implement the referendum and Parliament is stopping him
Isn’t that exactly how he wants to be positioned?
It may have been a bit messier than he wanted but the outcome is what counts
4D chess...
Corbyn's OODA loop is totally messed up now.
With the possible exception of Scotland, voters have to decide in a GE which is more important to them
1) stopping Brexit by not voting Tory
2) risking Corbyn PM taxing them out of their overpriced homes and over extended personal debt in the leafy suburbs by not voting Tory.
Clearly there is a growing group of Labour MPs in Brexit supporting seats who can see this not ending well for them. Boris is out and about today campaigning, Corbyn is sitting in Westminster wringing his hands like Pontius Pilate.
Many Tory/LibDem marginals are in prosperous areas. Can these voters really afford to risk a Corbyn government. Jo Swinson is likely to have seen her kids leave school and go to University before we see a Liberal become PM again.
We're on for an election then?
You can’t trust Boris with Trump.
You can’t trust Boris with your NHS.
Etc
Like all good campaigns it taps a truth.
Makes you wonder actually whether Bozza saw some positive internal polling numbers in between PMQs and the election motion. He seemed much perkier. Either that or he had a nice lunch.
When he was a Tory, I am sure you called him a homophobe. Now he is your bestie.
It is like Michael Brown's dirty money, isn't it. The LibDems like to portray themselves as very principled, but in fact they have none.
MP's are not some breed apart; they are people; we voted for them and if we knew what we we were doing when we voted to Leave (questionable) then we knew what we were doing when we elected representatives, ..... representatives, not delegates.