This should be the death knell for an October election - no one is voting for it until an extension actually takes effect (not just the bill becoming law)
Cummings is leaving at the end of October (he’s delayed surgery to get Brexit done).....
Ah. I’d suggest he gets the surgery done.
Wonder if he'll consult JRM about which surgeon is competent?
I think that's smart tactics from No 10, the Benn bill will have RA by that point so Corbyn (Not Starmer !) objection last time round is fulfilled. If Johnson doesn't get the 434 votes, he either goes long, resigns or awaits a VONC from Corbyn.
He will say he said (meant) the extension secured and he can’t trust the PM to do it until the 17th October EU council meeting.
Re the Opposition fear that Boris wont follow the law, if they truly believe that that must VONC Monday knowing he will lose and be removed and be unable to break the law
There's a legitimate problem that there are also potential shenanigans regarding getting a replacement in place and/or scheduling an election, which is a process that his team has previously suggested they will abuse.
So long as he is PM he's subject to the law of the land election period or not.
The PM has some discretion in both advising The Queen who can form a majority and setting an election date, and his supporters have at various times suggested he'll abuse both of these.
If no GE called before prorogation, Parliament returns on Mon 14 Oct but quite likely GE would not be called until after EU Meeting at end of week so that takes it to Mon 21 Oct.
If GE Motion passed on Mon 21 Oct, likely date would be 5 weeks from Thur 24 Oct, ie Thur 28 Nov.
This takes it very close to December - and worth noting a December GE has shortened a lot on Betfair in last couple of hours.
Also, I wonder if late Nov / early Dec is better for Boris than early Nov - if he has to extend it's better if there is some time for the embarrassment etc to settle down. It would be better for him than having to extend mid campaign.
If no GE called before prorogation, Parliament returns on Mon 14 Oct but quite likely GE would not be called until after EU Meeting at end of week so that takes it to Mon 21 Oct.
If GE Motion passed on Mon 21 Oct, likely date would be 5 weeks from Thur 24 Oct, ie Thur 28 Nov.
This takes it very close to December - and worth noting a December GE has shortened a lot on Betfair in last couple of hours.
Also, I wonder if late Nov / early Dec is better for Boris than early Nov - if he has to extend it's better if there is some time for the embarrassment etc to settle down. It would be better for him than having to extend mid campaign.
If we go into Dcember then everyone will then start saying the nights are too dark and the weather too bad for an election and best to wait until next Spring.
My guess is that if this doesn't happen by the end of October it won't happen for the next six months more more.
Remember the Labour Party is absolutely terrified and panic stricken at the prospect of facing the electorate and they'll look for any trick in the book not to have an election.
Why doesn't Opposition vonc Boris now, take over govt, stop prorogation (why are we still proroguing anyway?), delay Brexit, and call GE on its terms?
Corbyn wont get the confidence of the house, hes terrified of being marginalized by a caretaker and Boris taking over as LOTO
Ken Clarke as caretaker leader seems a good answer to your objections.
And who will be in his cabinet? What programme of government will he be following? Boris will be LOTO, what is Corbyns position? Blackford loses his 3 questions, they go to Corbyn. Will HMQ appoint a leader just to pass am extension and call an election?
Not HMQ's business. As far as the rest of the questions are concerned, they're all capable of being dealt with.
As HMQ has to appoint him very much her business. Remember after 2010 election she needed assurances of the stability of the proposed government, she would need some idea of what is being proposed to appoint someone with no party as PM on the nod of a divided parliament. There are constitutional issues here.
This is not true. Gordon Brown said "I am not going to be PM any more" and reccomended to the Queen Cameron as next PM.
The critical question here - not fully answered as yet - is what _precisely_ happens, if Boris stays on as PM until October 19 and refuses to ask for an extension.
Has he committed a criminal offence? What sanction does it carry? Can he be rapidly removed from Parliament / office? What _exactly_ prevents him from hanging on until Oct 31 in those circumstances?
Why doesn't Opposition vonc Boris now, take over govt, stop prorogation (why are we still proroguing anyway?), delay Brexit, and call GE on its terms?
Corbyn wont get the confidence of the house, hes terrified of being marginalized by a caretaker and Boris taking over as LOTO
Ken Clarke as caretaker leader seems a good answer to your objections.
And who will be in his cabinet? What programme of government will he be following? Boris will be LOTO, what is Corbyns position? Blackford loses his 3 questions, they go to Corbyn. Will HMQ appoint a leader just to pass am extension and call an election?
Not HMQ's business. As far as the rest of the questions are concerned, they're all capable of being dealt with.
As HMQ has to appoint him very much her business. Remember after 2010 election she needed assurances of the stability of the proposed government, she would need some idea of what is being proposed to appoint someone with no party as PM on the nod of a divided parliament. There are constitutional issues here.
This is not true. Gordon Brown said "I am not going to be PM any more" and reccomended to the Queen Cameron as next PM.
After a stable coalition agreement had been sorted. The talk of assurances etc was during that chaos after the result, the same chaos we will have after a VONC
If nobody clearly has confidence then the law is we have an election to sort it out. Let the several others either demonstrate a majority or agree to an election.
Is the PM taking soundings to determine who may command a majority? Because that's what his job is, if he really thinks he's lost a confidence vote.
Of course he doesn't really think he's lost a confidence vote, it's just a powerplay.
No its not, it is to have an election. Parliament chose to reject an election AND to reject a formal VoNC so I think its fair to say Parliament has given him confidence back.
If no GE called before prorogation, Parliament returns on Mon 14 Oct but quite likely GE would not be called until after EU Meeting at end of week so that takes it to Mon 21 Oct.
If GE Motion passed on Mon 21 Oct, likely date would be 5 weeks from Thur 24 Oct, ie Thur 28 Nov.
This takes it very close to December - and worth noting a December GE has shortened a lot on Betfair in last couple of hours.
Also, I wonder if late Nov / early Dec is better for Boris than early Nov - if he has to extend it's better if there is some time for the embarrassment etc to settle down. It would be better for him than having to extend mid campaign.
If we go into Dcember then everyone will then start saying the nights are too dark and the weather too bad for an election and best to wait until next Spring.
My guess is that if this doesn't happen by the end of October it won't happen for the next six months more more.
Remember the Labour Party is absolutely terrified and panic stricken at the prospect of facing the electorate and they'll look for any trick in the book not to have an election.
And that's why I still think Nicola will go for it in mid October.
She won't want a general election being put off into next year and having it around or after the Salmond case. It's in the SNPs interests to have it in October - They'd be mad to let Labour keep putting it off and putting it off into next year.
Totally O/T, but TSE might be able to confirm. Reported on BBC that an Australian cricket journalist was charged £55,000 for a bottle of beer!
Peter Lalor ordered the £5.50 Deuchers IPA at Manchester's Malmaison hotel before being stunned to discover he had been charged $99,983.64 (£55,315.12).
Am i being stupid, but whats stopping labour saying no again? Given the bill that basically says Boris MUST call an exention then he'd be forced to resign by his own words.
That is exactly the plan
Thats what i thought.
But what happens then?? Who the f-knows. corbyn gets to be PM I guess?
Who knows. Maybe Corbyn gets first try and fails (Swinson against). Then maybe Ken Clarke?
There's no such thing as "first try" as Brown showed in 2010. Either someone else can command Parliament, in which case they become PM, or nobody can in which case we need an election. Otherwise until then the existing PM remains in situ until there is either a clear alternative or an election that generates a clear alternative [and if the election is inconclusive the PM remains until a conclusion is reached].
Oct - 2.52 / 2.58 Nov - 3.05 / 3.7 Dec - 4.0 / 5.9
I got on Dec at 14.0 this morning.
But my main play is laying this year.
Really can't see a December election.
Weather's terrible. Is dark by 4pm. Most people are more concerned about Christmas and New Year.
December, January and February are all out, IMO.
November is very tricky too really.
I think it either happens in October or it's off until April/May and what the hell happens in the six months between October and April is anyone's guess.
It was very odd that she joined his Cabinet in the first place.
I've always thought she was there as a 'lone' remainer to try to speak reason, but I could understand if shes had enough. Really what will be left of the Tories after this? There's so much talent which was gone, not from the government but from the party... someone needs to reforge these people into something else.
Are they not moving over to the Liberal Democrats, in dribs and drabs, of course?
There used to be an advert for something of other that featured a mediaeval castle, where one man with a sword was fighting off a horde of warriors armed with pikes.
Who is this guy though? I know Heidi Allen retweeted it but where is he getting his rumours? If the press pack start tweeting it then more interesting
Yeah, not seeing it anywhere else at the moment
If hes getting rumours I'd have thought the journos would have had the tip, especially as he claims multiple sources! Could be though, more likely she will not stand again given her majority and simply fade away
If no GE called before prorogation, Parliament returns on Mon 14 Oct but quite likely GE would not be called until after EU Meeting at end of week so that takes it to Mon 21 Oct.
If GE Motion passed on Mon 21 Oct, likely date would be 5 weeks from Thur 24 Oct, ie Thur 28 Nov.
This takes it very close to December - and worth noting a December GE has shortened a lot on Betfair in last couple of hours.
Also, I wonder if late Nov / early Dec is better for Boris than early Nov - if he has to extend it's better if there is some time for the embarrassment etc to settle down. It would be better for him than having to extend mid campaign.
If we go into Dcember then everyone will then start saying the nights are too dark and the weather too bad for an election and best to wait until next Spring.
My guess is that if this doesn't happen by the end of October it won't happen for the next six months more more.
Remember the Labour Party is absolutely terrified and panic stricken at the prospect of facing the electorate and they'll look for any trick in the book not to have an election.
Since when did you lose your own mind and become a YTS copywriter for the Tory Press Office?
Mr. Flashman (deceased), Boris Johnson isn't clearing barnacles so much as tearing out futtocks.
I'm not persuaded by those who think this works electorally. I don't think anti-EU voters are as prone to tactical voting as pro-EU voters, and I do think the PM's at serious risk of chasing off floating voters.
Of the Brexit outcomes British voters think are still realistically possible, a plurality of 21% now prefer No Deal YouGov finds today.
Tied second are leaving the EU on a renegotiated Deal as Boris wants and Remaining in the EU after all on 19% each.
12% back a soft Brexit staying in the single market and customs union, 10% back EUref2 and just 5% back the date of Brexit being delayed past 31st October and 2% back May's existing Brexit Deal.
Leave voters split 41% for No Deal, 31% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal and 9% for soft Brexit. Remain voters split 38% for Remain, 18% for EUref2 and 14% for soft Brexit.
Tory voters split 42% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal, 35% for No Deal and 8% for soft Brexit, Labour voters split 35% for Remain, 18% for EUref2 and 15% for soft Brexit, LD voters split 42% for Remain, 16% for EUref2 and 14% for soft Brexit and Brexit Party voters split 59% for No Deal, 30% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal and 5% for soft Brexit.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), Boris Johnson isn't clearing barnacles so much as tearing out futtocks.
I'm not persuaded by those who think this works electorally. I don't think anti-EU voters are as prone to tactical voting as pro-EU voters, and I do think the PM's at serious risk of chasing off floating voters.
Two boat wordplays in one - bravo 👏
(Although the latter one might not have been intentional?)
The whip removal was I think the big error, without that hed almost certainly have got a one line bill for a GE through, mann is already calling for Corbyn to 'go early' and Hoey and a couple others (elphicke, hermon etc) could have been bought off
Of the Brexit outcomes British voters think are still realistically possible, a plurality of 21% now prefer No Deal YouGov finds today.
Tied second are leaving the EU on a renegotiated Deal as Boris wants and Remaining in the EU after all on 19% each.
12% back a soft Brexit staying in the single market and customs union, 10% back EUref2 and just 5% back the date of Brexit being delayed past 31st October and 2% back May's existing Brexit Deal.
Leave voters split 41% for No Deal, 31% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal and 9% for soft Brexit. Remain voters split 38% for Remain, 18% for EUref2 and 14% for soft Brexit.
Tory voters split 42% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal, 35% for No Deal and 8% for soft Brexit, Labour voters split 35% for Remain, 18% for EUref2 and 15% for soft Brexit, LD voters split 42% for Remain, 16% for EUref2 and 14% for soft Brexit and Brexit Party voters split 59% for No Deal, 30% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal and 5% for soft Brexit.
Of the Brexit outcomes British voters think are still realistically possible, a plurality of 21% now prefer No Deal YouGov finds today.
Tied second are leaving the EU on a renegotiated Deal as Boris wants and Remaining in the EU after all on 19% each.
12% back a soft Brexit staying in the single market and customs union, 10% back EUref2 and just 5% back the date of Brexit being delayed past 31st October and 2% back May's existing Brexit Deal.
Leave voters split 41% for No Deal, 31% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal and 9% for soft Brexit. Remain voters split 38% for Remain, 18% for EUref2 and 14% for soft Brexit.
Tory voters split 42% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal, 35% for No Deal and 8% for soft Brexit, Labour voters split 35% for Remain, 18% for EUref2 and 15% for soft Brexit, LD voters split 42% for Remain, 16% for EUref2 and 14% for soft Brexit and Brexit Party voters split 59% for No Deal, 30% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal and 5% for soft Brexit.
Of the Brexit outcomes British voters think are still realistically possible, a plurality of 21% now prefer No Deal YouGov finds today.
Tied second are leaving the EU on a renegotiated Deal as Boris wants and Remaining in the EU after all on 19% each.
12% back a soft Brexit staying in the single market and customs union, 10% back EUref2 and just 5% back the date of Brexit being delayed past 31st October and 2% back May's existing Brexit Deal.
Leave voters split 41% for No Deal, 31% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal and 9% for soft Brexit. Remain voters split 38% for Remain, 18% for EUref2 and 14% for soft Brexit.
Tory voters split 42% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal, 35% for No Deal and 8% for soft Brexit, Labour voters split 35% for Remain, 18% for EUref2 and 15% for soft Brexit, LD voters split 42% for Remain, 16% for EUref2 and 14% for soft Brexit and Brexit Party voters split 59% for No Deal, 30% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal and 5% for soft Brexit.
Am i being stupid, but whats stopping labour saying no again? Given the bill that basically says Boris MUST call an exention then he'd be forced to resign by his own words.
That is exactly the plan
Thats what i thought.
But what happens then?? Who the f-knows. corbyn gets to be PM I guess?
Who knows. Maybe Corbyn gets first try and fails (Swinson against). Then maybe Ken Clarke?
There's no such thing as "first try" as Brown showed in 2010. Either someone else can command Parliament, in which case they become PM, or nobody can in which case we need an election. Otherwise until then the existing PM remains in situ until there is either a clear alternative or an election that generates a clear alternative [and if the election is inconclusive the PM remains until a conclusion is reached].
True, but what that leaves unaddressed is the situation - not now impossible - in which the PM resigns - perhaps the only way of fulfilling his promise of not asking for an extension - but does not name a successor to HM the Queen because there isn't one in his opinion that could command a majority - just as he can't.
(While parliament perhaps declines to VONC a non existent PM and declines to agree to an election).
Am i being stupid, but whats stopping labour saying no again? Given the bill that basically says Boris MUST call an exention then he'd be forced to resign by his own words.
That is exactly the plan
Thats what i thought.
But what happens then?? Who the f-knows. corbyn gets to be PM I guess?
Who knows. Maybe Corbyn gets first try and fails (Swinson against). Then maybe Ken Clarke?
There's no such thing as "first try" as Brown showed in 2010. Either someone else can command Parliament, in which case they become PM, or nobody can in which case we need an election. Otherwise until then the existing PM remains in situ until there is either a clear alternative or an election that generates a clear alternative [and if the election is inconclusive the PM remains until a conclusion is reached].
True, but what that leaves unaddressed is the situation - not now impossible - in which the PM resigns - perhaps the only way of fulfilling his promise of not asking for an extension - but does not name a successor to HM the Queen because there isn't one in his opinion that could command a majority - just as he can't.
(While parliament perhaps declines to VONC a non existent PM and declines to agree to an election).
Of the Brexit outcomes British voters think are still realistically possible, a plurality of 21% now prefer No Deal YouGov finds today.
Tied second are leaving the EU on a renegotiated Deal as Boris wants and Remaining in the EU after all on 19% each.
12% back a soft Brexit staying in the single market and customs union, 10% back EUref2 and just 5% back the date of Brexit being delayed past 31st October and 2% back May's existing Brexit Deal.
Leave voters split 41% for No Deal, 31% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal and 9% for soft Brexit. Remain voters split 38% for Remain, 18% for EUref2 and 14% for soft Brexit.
Tory voters split 42% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal, 35% for No Deal and 8% for soft Brexit, Labour voters split 35% for Remain, 18% for EUref2 and 15% for soft Brexit, LD voters split 42% for Remain, 16% for EUref2 and 14% for soft Brexit and Brexit Party voters split 59% for No Deal, 30% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal and 5% for soft Brexit.
Comments
If GE Motion passed on Mon 21 Oct, likely date would be 5 weeks from Thur 24 Oct, ie Thur 28 Nov.
This takes it very close to December - and worth noting a December GE has shortened a lot on Betfair in last couple of hours.
Also, I wonder if late Nov / early Dec is better for Boris than early Nov - if he has to extend it's better if there is some time for the embarrassment etc to settle down. It would be better for him than having to extend mid campaign.
Oct - 2.52 / 2.58
Nov - 3.05 / 3.7
Dec - 4.0 / 5.9
By then another Benn Bill will be needed to force Govt to extend beyond 31 Jan if No Deal!
Could 2020 still be a winner?
My guess is that if this doesn't happen by the end of October it won't happen for the next six months more more.
Remember the Labour Party is absolutely terrified and panic stricken at the prospect of facing the electorate and they'll look for any trick in the book not to have an election.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1169637193545072640?s=20
Has he committed a criminal offence? What sanction does it carry? Can he be rapidly removed from Parliament / office? What _exactly_ prevents him from hanging on until Oct 31 in those circumstances?
But my main play is laying this year.
She won't want a general election being put off into next year and having it around or after the Salmond case. It's in the SNPs interests to have it in October - They'd be mad to let Labour keep putting it off and putting it off into next year.
Reported on BBC that an Australian cricket journalist was charged £55,000 for a bottle of beer!
Peter Lalor ordered the £5.50 Deuchers IPA at Manchester's Malmaison hotel before being stunned to discover he had been charged $99,983.64 (£55,315.12).
It's being put right apparently , but .......
He’s ripped the heart out of the Conservative Party in pursuit of a pure ideology.
Long-standing members won’t have it, and we haven’t seen the end of it.
I’m furious.
Really what will be left of the Tories after this? There's so much talent which was gone, not from the government but from the party...
someone needs to reforge these people into something else.
Weather's terrible. Is dark by 4pm. Most people are more concerned about Christmas and New Year.
December, January and February are all out, IMO.
November is very tricky too really.
I think it either happens in October or it's off until April/May and what the hell happens in the six months between October and April is anyone's guess.
Sounds a bit like Mr B Johnson.
Good evening, everyone.
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1169642579668930561
It’s not as if he’s helping out down here.
It’s the gift that keeps on giving.
Another barnacle off the boat.
The Rudder snaps
[rudderless]
I'm not persuaded by those who think this works electorally. I don't think anti-EU voters are as prone to tactical voting as pro-EU voters, and I do think the PM's at serious risk of chasing off floating voters.
Tied second are leaving the EU on a renegotiated Deal as Boris wants and Remaining in the EU after all on 19% each.
12% back a soft Brexit staying in the single market and customs union, 10% back EUref2 and just 5% back the date of Brexit being delayed past 31st October and 2% back May's existing Brexit Deal.
Leave voters split 41% for No Deal, 31% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal and 9% for soft Brexit. Remain voters split 38% for Remain, 18% for EUref2 and 14% for soft Brexit.
Tory voters split 42% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal, 35% for No Deal and 8% for soft Brexit, Labour voters split 35% for Remain, 18% for EUref2 and 15% for soft Brexit, LD voters split 42% for Remain, 16% for EUref2 and 14% for soft Brexit and Brexit Party voters split 59% for No Deal, 30% for a Boris renegotiated Brexit Deal and 5% for soft Brexit.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/09/05/what-do-public-think-can-still-realistically-happe
(Although the latter one might not have been intentional?)
Is Erdogan on Farages pay roll ?
Just in time for GE or EUref2 he threatens to flood the EU with migrants.
https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article199750678/Tuerkischer-Praesident-Erdogan-droht-Migranten-nach-Europa-zu-lassen.html
https://twitter.com/newsandstar/status/1169622463057035265?s=21
https://twitter.com/Torcuil/status/1169647097030877191
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1169646974670462978
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1169646940503629824
https://twitter.com/Torcuil/status/1169646936573513729
I dare say most of the 21% that support it haven’t the faintest idea what it entails.
(While parliament perhaps declines to VONC a non existent PM and declines to agree to an election).
Any thoughts?
Double deletion from the Secret Barrister and @Scott_P tut tut