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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No-vember election. A betting tip

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    Scott_P said:
    Very small cross party group. I applaud some of them (those who were genuine and pushed for a deal back when it was viable, not those posturing now for the sake of it like, say, Kinnock), but it is too late.
    Scott_P said:
    He really is very childish, it is one way he is similar to Trump (he does not have as many similarities as is sometimes thought in fairness).
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    malcolmg said:
    I thought you liked Salmond? How is his trial going btw?
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Jonathan said:

    In number 10 there is a whiteboard. It has the master strategy grid.

    Thursday: Reenact Police Academy BJ scene with BJ
    Friday: Enter public spat with KFC

    The mind boggles what the weekend holds. I suspect Cummings has a wager with Boris to see how long loyal Conservatives will go along defending this stuff.

    "Public spat" with KFC? It's Twitter 'atting' FFS!
    Its also with KFCs social media team, I doubt the board have met to declare war on Boris
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:

    What an absolute bellend

    Yes, but which side is he shouting for?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Jonathan said:

    In number 10 there is a whiteboard. It has the master strategy grid.

    Thursday: Reenact Police Academy BJ scene with BJ
    Friday: Enter public spat with KFC

    The mind boggles what the weekend holds. I suspect Cummings has a wager with Boris to see how long loyal Conservatives will go along defending this stuff.

    "Public spat" with KFC? It's Twitter 'atting' FFS!
    Remainers are fewmin.

    And Labour’s response team are nowhere.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    The chicken thing is getting very desparate now. Sad.

    It's not gonna hold up and will be forgotten about once an election is underway. It's really more about trying to goad labour into calling a pre 31st election. Luckily so far it doesn't seem to be working.

    It can only be worse for Boris to have an election post 31st after a brexit extension, I can't see how it can help him. So why call an election before then? It's been shown repeatedly that not only do the public especially want an election or think it will help, but that they also think poorly of everyone in Parliament already, its not like Corbyn is sullying his amazing reputation right now.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,932
    Noo said:

    TGOHF said:
    I wonder who Nigel Farage or Arran Banks would support if it were Russia England? I am sure it would be England
    Salmond really failed to read the room when he took a job with RT. He's been a pretty sound political operator in his time, but that was so stupid.
    Farage with his appearances on RT too, but he tends to make grave mistakes more often so it's less of a surprise.
    More bollox,another bellend tolls.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited September 2019

    The chicken thing is getting very desparate now. Sad.

    It's not gonna hold up and will be forgotten about once an election is underway. It's really more about trying to goad labour into calling a pre 31st election. Luckily so far it doesn't seem to be working.

    It can only be worse for Boris to have an election post 31st after a brexit extension, I can't see how it can help him. So why call an election before then? It's been shown repeatedly that not only do the public especially want an election or think it will help, but that they also think poorly of everyone in Parliament already, its not like Corbyn is sullying his amazing reputation right now.

    Boris isn't going to request an extension. However he achieves that, legally or by daring them to hold him in contempt, hes banking on that being the hook on which the electorate hang their hats. Boris for brexit vs parliament for delay and no brexit
    The chicken thing is as you say sad and pathetic
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Very small cross party group. I applaud some of them (those who were genuine and pushed for a deal back when it was viable, not those posturing now for the sake of it like, say, Kinnock), but it is too late.
    Scott_P said:
    He really is very childish, it is one way he is similar to Trump (he does not have as many similarities as is sometimes thought in fairness).
    I assumed that was a joke at first, but apparently it's not. Astonishing.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Convention is VONC leads to a General Election. FTPA just adds a 14 day cooling off period to that.

    I refer you to the relevant para of the Government Cabinet Manual :

    "Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, if a government is defeated on a motion that ‘this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, there is then a 14-day period during which an alternative government can be formed from the House of Commons as presently constituted, or the incumbent government can seek to regain the confidence of the House. If no government can secure the confidence of the House of Commons during that period, through the approval of a motion that ‘this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, a general election will take place."

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    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Scott_P said:
    No party leaders there. None of the 3 biggest opposition party leaders will let another get a leg up from them.
    I really don't understand this Kinnock. He is so useless. We have REMAIN in our grasp. Why should we let it go ?
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    Tories election hopes crushed, they've lost the KFC customer vote, the people who are shocked by the insult 'big girls blouse' vote, and the people who hate posh people vote, all in the space of a week. Thank God they haven't insulted readers of The Morning Star yet, or I really would fear for their base.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    JackW said:

    FTPA geeks - re: my last couple of exchanges with Big G.

    Do you agree Boris has "14 days protection" from the FTPA?

    It looks to me as if that's just the deadline for him or anyone reconstituting an administration before an election's called (ie *anyone* can seek confidence in that period and end the process).

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

    As dyedwoolie said, prorogation may make the point moot anyway.. but it would be interesting to know how swiftly a subsequent VOC could happen in practice.

    Boris will give notice that Parliament is prorogued at the end of the VONC.
    Prorogation does not prevent the Queen appointing a new Prime Minister.
    But the statutory process under the FTPA of getting to a new PM will have been stalled by prorogation.....
    This question asked in the Lords on 3 September is relevant:

    Lord Cormack

    To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the powers available to recall Parliament during a prorogation in the event of a national or international crisis.

    Earl Howe (Con)

    My Lords, once Parliament has been prorogued it cannot be recalled. However, the sovereign, acting on the advice of Ministers, may issue a new proclamation setting an earlier date for the beginning of the new Session.
    Yeah, she might be advised by her ministers not to recall Parliament, but she’d be within her rights to do so.
    The answer was that it's not possible to recall parliament once it's been prorogued, but it is possible to start the new session at an earlier date than previously announced.
    I apologise, liberal use of the word "recall" there!
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    I really don't understand this Kinnock. He is so useless. We have REMAIN in our grasp. Why should we let it go ?

    His seat is 60% leave
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    Scott_P said:
    Love it. On Rees Mogg: "He is an absolute fraud, he is a living example of what a moderately cut double-breasted suit and a decent tie can do with an ultra-posh voice and a bit of ginger stuck up his arse. You do not behave like that as leader of the House.” Both men went to Eton but Sir Nicholas says Rees-Mogg’s behaviour has nothing to do with his school. “I thought it was bloody bad manners and he of all people should know better. He has had all the advantages and frankly nanny made a serious bish. I wanted to kick him firmly in the arse and say, ‘What the hell do you think you are playing at? Sit up!’ ” His speech in the Brexit debate was “the lowest form of student union hackery, insolence and bad manners”.
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    ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    If only we had a decent example of a major national campaign in which the side whose comms were roundly mocked came out on top because it was actually better connected with the public.

    Nah, can’t think of one.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Japan wants to change the way we use Japanese names to keep in line with tradition

    When written in Japan's traditional form, the family name would come first. But when written in English, this word order swaps.")

    https://news.sky.com/story/japan-wants-to-change-the-way-we-use-japanese-names-to-keep-in-line-with-tradition-11803579

    It's this weird crusade of the foreign minister Taro Kono, he's a massive tit. Everyone will ignore it except the people who make passports, and for the next 10 years half the people will have passports written one way and half the people will have passports written another.

    tl;dr: Nationalism is a disease
    From the article it sounded quite popular.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Tories election hopes crushed, they've lost the KFC customer vote, the people who are shocked by the insult 'big girls blouse' vote, and the people who hate posh people vote, all in the space of a week. Thank God they haven't insulted readers of The Morning Star yet, or I really would fear for their base.

    And people who value knowledge of the wholesale price of fish and animal husbandry
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    FTPA geeks - re: my last couple of exchanges with Big G.

    Do you agree Boris has "14 days protection" from the FTPA?

    It looks to me as if that's just the deadline for him or anyone reconstituting an administration before an election's called (ie *anyone* can seek confidence in that period and end the process).

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

    As dyedwoolie said, prorogation may make the point moot anyway.. but it would be interesting to know how swiftly a subsequent VOC could happen in practice.

    Boris will give notice that Parliament is prorogued at the end of the VONC.
    Prorogation does not prevent the Queen appointing a new Prime Minister.
    She would need to sack her current one. Unlikely.
    If the Conservatives VONC their own Prime Minister I see no reason why Her Majesty shouldn't take them at their word. I believe Her Majesty would not be best pleased with Boris and the Conservatives playing fast and loose with such conventions.

    Exit Boris enter AN OTHER.
    Convention is VONC leads to a General Election. FTPA just adds a 14 day cooling off period to that.
    Would Corbyn take the 14 days, or just VONC himself immediately?
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,945

    Roger said:

    TGOHF said:
    That's a game for any number of players
    I wonder how long before "The People's Vote" lot put a Boris head on there and ask why he is chicken of a referendum.
    Because we've already had one.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    Scott_P said:
    No party leaders there. None of the 3 biggest opposition party leaders will let another get a leg up from them.
    I really don't understand this Kinnock. He is so useless. We have REMAIN in our grasp. Why should we let it go ?
    So much for respecting the referendum result.
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    Scott_P said:
    “Boris Johnson is nothing like Winston Churchill. I don’t think anyone has called Boris a diplomat or statesman. We all know the pluses and minuses, everyone he has worked for says the same thing: he writes beautifully [but he’s] deeply unreliable.” He can see no “helpful analogy” between the two leaders. “Winston Churchill was like Winston Churchill because of his experiences in life. Boris Johnson’s experience in life is telling a lot of porkies about the European Union in Brussels and then becoming prime minister."

    Good on you Fatty! (not so fat as when I met him a few years ago)
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    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    I really don't understand this Kinnock. He is so useless. We have REMAIN in our grasp. Why should we let it go ?

    His seat is 60% leave
    Yvette Cooper's seat is 69% Leave. There are many Northern Labour MPs with similar Leave %. It does not mean they all vote Labour. In fact, very few do.
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    Chris said:


    Ftpa states parliament must vote an act of confidence in a new proposed PM. They can't if parliament is prorogued. It's not possible and bj wont recall them to do it.

    I don't think that's right, I think they vote confidence in the newly *appointed* PM (or rather his/her government).

    So:
    1) VONC
    2) Queen's advisors take soundings about who else would be able to get confidence (usually outgoing PM's advice is good but in this case he may be playing silly buggers)
    3) Queen appoints somebody
    4) Parliament votes confidence in them, or doesn't so goto (2)
    ...until time is up and whichever failed PM is sitting on the chair when the music stops schedules an election

    Non-bonkers people of pb, have I got that right???
    Right.
    Yep basically but the form is that normally she would not appoint anyone if there is doubt they can carry the House. So it is entirely possible she could be advised that no.one has the clear support of the House and she should not appoint anyone.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    “Boris shouldn’t have withdrawn the whip blah blah..”


    https://twitter.com/chrismasonbbc/status/1170009234471305217?s=21
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited September 2019

    Scott_P said:
    Love it. On Rees Mogg: "He is an absolute fraud, he is a living example of what a moderately cut double-breasted suit and a decent tie can do with an ultra-posh voice and a bit of ginger stuck up his arse. You do not behave like that as leader of the House.” Both men went to Eton but Sir Nicholas says Rees-Mogg’s behaviour has nothing to do with his school. “I thought it was bloody bad manners and he of all people should know better. He has had all the advantages and frankly nanny made a serious bish. I wanted to kick him firmly in the arse and say, ‘What the hell do you think you are playing at? Sit up!’ ” His speech in the Brexit debate was “the lowest form of student union hackery, insolence and bad manners”.
    I love how Nick Soames is now being heralded by the left as some paragon of virtue, when in the past they have viewed him with contempt as a bed-blocker with old-fashioned views. His name isn't mentioned now without "grandson of Winston Churchill" added on the end. A distinctly average politician, regardless of who his grandfather was.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121
    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    JackW said:

    FTPA geeks - re: my last couple of exchanges with Big G.

    Do you agree Boris has "14 days protection" from the FTPA?

    It looks to me as if that's just the deadline for him or anyone reconstituting an administration before an election's called (ie *anyone* can seek confidence in that period and end the process).

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

    As dyedwoolie said, prorogation may make the point moot anyway.. but it would be interesting to know how swiftly a subsequent VOC could happen in practice.

    Boris will give notice that Parliament is prorogued at the end of the VONC.
    Prorogation does not prevent the Queen appointing a new Prime Minister.
    But the statutory process under the FTPA of getting to a new PM will have been stalled by prorogation.....
    This question asked in the Lords on 3 September is relevant:

    Lord Cormack

    To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the powers available to recall Parliament during a prorogation in the event of a national or international crisis.

    Earl Howe (Con)

    My Lords, once Parliament has been prorogued it cannot be recalled. However, the sovereign, acting on the advice of Ministers, may issue a new proclamation setting an earlier date for the beginning of the new Session.
    Yeah, she might be advised by her ministers not to recall Parliament, but she’d be within her rights to do so.
    The answer was that it's not possible to recall parliament once it's been prorogued, but it is possible to start the new session at an earlier date than previously announced.
    I apologise, liberal use of the word "recall" there!
    OK, but the substantive point is that at the point at which bringing back parliament became relevant, the prime minister with the power to advise the Queen would be the newly appointed one, not Boris Johnson.
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    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    JackW said:

    Convention is VONC leads to a General Election. FTPA just adds a 14 day cooling off period to that.

    I refer you to the relevant para of the Government Cabinet Manual :

    "Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, if a government is defeated on a motion that ‘this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, there is then a 14-day period during which an alternative government can be formed from the House of Commons as presently constituted, or the incumbent government can seek to regain the confidence of the House. If no government can secure the confidence of the House of Commons during that period, through the approval of a motion that ‘this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, a general election will take place."

    Who decides which VoC will be accepted for a vote ? Can anybody put up a motion ?
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,810
    Well, it's been fun this week. It has been good to see that the opposition parties finally agreed on who they wanted to lead their TAND administration, though Boris Johnson as hostage PM was something of a surprise answer to everyone. Let's hope they don't overplay, as Boris will be looking for a wriggle (Kinnock amendment) and one would imagine he is after a better way out than the Colonel Gaddafi approach he advocated yesterday.

    That said, if Boris could be constrained into bringing back (and maybe even passing!) the softer than May WA deal of the Kinnock amendment, I think I would weep at the wonder of it. Although, I'm not sure whether all the documentation and basis for agreement actually exists to underpin the Kinnock amendment, can anyone enlighten?
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Scott_P said:
    “Boris Johnson is nothing like Winston Churchill. I don’t think anyone has called Boris a diplomat or statesman. We all know the pluses and minuses, everyone he has worked for says the same thing: he writes beautifully [but he’s] deeply unreliable.” He can see no “helpful analogy” between the two leaders. “Winston Churchill was like Winston Churchill because of his experiences in life. Boris Johnson’s experience in life is telling a lot of porkies about the European Union in Brussels and then becoming prime minister."

    Good on you Fatty! (not so fat as when I met him a few years ago)
    That article does require someone to reply with 'you ok hun?' Though
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    RobD said:


    From the article it sounded quite popular.

    I don't think so, they quote a reader poll of a right-wing newspaper, and get 59% in favour (think "a Daily Telegraph poll of its readers found..."), and it's not something people are really interested in so they'd be easily swayed by the arguments made in the paper.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121

    Scott_P said:
    Love it. On Rees Mogg: "He is an absolute fraud, he is a living example of what a moderately cut double-breasted suit and a decent tie can do with an ultra-posh voice and a bit of ginger stuck up his arse. You do not behave like that as leader of the House.” Both men went to Eton but Sir Nicholas says Rees-Mogg’s behaviour has nothing to do with his school. “I thought it was bloody bad manners and he of all people should know better. He has had all the advantages and frankly nanny made a serious bish. I wanted to kick him firmly in the arse and say, ‘What the hell do you think you are playing at? Sit up!’ ” His speech in the Brexit debate was “the lowest form of student union hackery, insolence and bad manners”.
    I love how Nick Soames is now being heralded by the left as some paragon of virtue, when in the past they have viewed him with contempt as a bed-blocker with old-fashioned views. His name isn't mentioned now without "grandson of Winston Churchill" added on the end. A distinctly average politician, regardless of who his grandfather was.
    Of course he's going to be feted by the opposition if he rips into the government. That's only human nature.
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    JackW said:

    Convention is VONC leads to a General Election. FTPA just adds a 14 day cooling off period to that.

    I refer you to the relevant para of the Government Cabinet Manual :

    "Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, if a government is defeated on a motion that ‘this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, there is then a 14-day period during which an alternative government can be formed from the House of Commons as presently constituted, or the incumbent government can seek to regain the confidence of the House. If no government can secure the confidence of the House of Commons during that period, through the approval of a motion that ‘this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, a general election will take place."

    That backs what I said. If no alternative government is found that can secure confidence of the house then election.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,979

    Chris said:


    Ftpa states parliament must vote an act of confidence in a new proposed PM. They can't if parliament is prorogued. It's not possible and bj wont recall them to do it.

    I don't think that's right, I think they vote confidence in the newly *appointed* PM (or rather his/her government).

    So:
    1) VONC
    2) Queen's advisors take soundings about who else would be able to get confidence (usually outgoing PM's advice is good but in this case he may be playing silly buggers)
    3) Queen appoints somebody
    4) Parliament votes confidence in them, or doesn't so goto (2)
    ...until time is up and whichever failed PM is sitting on the chair when the music stops schedules an election

    Non-bonkers people of pb, have I got that right???
    Right.
    Yep basically but the form is that normally she would not appoint anyone if there is doubt they can carry the House. So it is entirely possible she could be advised that no.one has the clear support of the House and she should not appoint anyone.
    That isn't however tenable so in that circumstance Boris would have to stay asPM.
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    Regarding the “girly swot” thing. I doubt if it will make any difference to the perception of Mr. Johnson by the much vaunted “north-midlands” vote. Those who think he is a foolish toff will think their perception is correct and those who see him as a jolly japester likewise. Is anybody at all really surprised at this revelation?
    Plus Mr. Cameron was deeply disliked and seen as a phoney “call me Dave” politician.
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    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    JackW said:

    FTPA geeks - re: my last couple of exchanges with Big G.

    Do you agree Boris has "14 days protection" from the FTPA?

    It looks to me as if that's just the deadline for him or anyone reconstituting an administration before an election's called (ie *anyone* can seek confidence in that period and end the process).

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

    As dyedwoolie said, prorogation may make the point moot anyway.. but it would be interesting to know how swiftly a subsequent VOC could happen in practice.

    Boris will give notice that Parliament is prorogued at the end of the VONC.
    Prorogation does not prevent the Queen appointing a new Prime Minister.
    But the statutory process under the FTPA of getting to a new PM will have been stalled by prorogation.....
    This question asked in the Lords on 3 September is relevant:

    Lord Cormack

    To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the powers available to recall Parliament during a prorogation in the event of a national or international crisis.

    Earl Howe (Con)

    My Lords, once Parliament has been prorogued it cannot be recalled. However, the sovereign, acting on the advice of Ministers, may issue a new proclamation setting an earlier date for the beginning of the new Session.
    Yeah, she might be advised by her ministers not to recall Parliament, but she’d be within her rights to do so.
    The answer was that it's not possible to recall parliament once it's been prorogued, but it is possible to start the new session at an earlier date than previously announced.
    I apologise, liberal use of the word "recall" there!
    OK, but the substantive point is that at the point at which bringing back parliament became relevant, the prime minister with the power to advise the Queen would be the newly appointed one, not Boris Johnson.
    What newly appointed PM? There won't be one.
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    I really don't understand this Kinnock. He is so useless. We have REMAIN in our grasp. Why should we let it go ?

    His seat is 60% leave
    Yvette Cooper's seat is 69% Leave. There are many Northern Labour MPs with similar Leave %. It does not mean they all vote Labour. In fact, very few do.
    Sure, but where's the harm in making a futile gesture?
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121

    Chris said:


    Ftpa states parliament must vote an act of confidence in a new proposed PM. They can't if parliament is prorogued. It's not possible and bj wont recall them to do it.

    I don't think that's right, I think they vote confidence in the newly *appointed* PM (or rather his/her government).

    So:
    1) VONC
    2) Queen's advisors take soundings about who else would be able to get confidence (usually outgoing PM's advice is good but in this case he may be playing silly buggers)
    3) Queen appoints somebody
    4) Parliament votes confidence in them, or doesn't so goto (2)
    ...until time is up and whichever failed PM is sitting on the chair when the music stops schedules an election

    Non-bonkers people of pb, have I got that right???
    Right.
    Yep basically but the form is that normally she would not appoint anyone if there is doubt they can carry the House. So it is entirely possible she could be advised that no.one has the clear support of the House and she should not appoint anyone.
    Yes. And the opposition would have to work fast to achieve everything within two weeks of the VONC.
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    Scott_P said:
    Love it. On Rees Mogg: "He is an absolute fraud, he is a living example of what a moderately cut double-breasted suit and a decent tie can do with an ultra-posh voice and a bit of ginger stuck up his arse. You do not behave like that as leader of the House.” Both men went to Eton but Sir Nicholas says Rees-Mogg’s behaviour has nothing to do with his school. “I thought it was bloody bad manners and he of all people should know better. He has had all the advantages and frankly nanny made a serious bish. I wanted to kick him firmly in the arse and say, ‘What the hell do you think you are playing at? Sit up!’ ” His speech in the Brexit debate was “the lowest form of student union hackery, insolence and bad manners”.
    I love how Nick Soames is now being heralded by the left as some paragon of virtue, when in the past they have viewed him with contempt as a bed-blocker with old-fashioned views. His name isn't mentioned now without "grandson of Winston Churchill" added on the end. A distinctly average politician, regardless of who his grandfather was.
    Criticising Boris for chucking Sir Nicholas out at the same time as chanelling his grandfather was a particularly absurd piece of twitter idiocy. Who know these people were such big fans of the hereditary principle?
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819

    The chicken thing is getting very desparate now. Sad.

    It's not gonna hold up and will be forgotten about once an election is underway. It's really more about trying to goad labour into calling a pre 31st election. Luckily so far it doesn't seem to be working.

    It can only be worse for Boris to have an election post 31st after a brexit extension, I can't see how it can help him. So why call an election before then? It's been shown repeatedly that not only do the public especially want an election or think it will help, but that they also think poorly of everyone in Parliament already, its not like Corbyn is sullying his amazing reputation right now.

    Boris isn't going to request an extension. However he achieves that, legally or by daring them to hold him in contempt, hes banking on that being the hook on which the electorate hang their hats. Boris for brexit vs parliament for delay and no brexit
    The chicken thing is as you say sad and pathetic
    Well he could be VONCed in that case. Whether he extends or someone else pushes the button like Corbyn or Ken Clarke, he will have failed to have us leave on October 31st. After that it will depend how forgiving Brexit Party supporters are of him for trying his best, or whether it will be the final proof that you can only trust Farage on Brexit. Could go either way of course but seems better odds for Labour than a pre brexit election where Boris can more easily appeal to BXP supporters that it's their one last chance for brexit.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Good for him.
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    Scott_P said:
    Love it. On Rees Mogg: "He is an absolute fraud, he is a living example of what a moderately cut double-breasted suit and a decent tie can do with an ultra-posh voice and a bit of ginger stuck up his arse. You do not behave like that as leader of the House.” Both men went to Eton but Sir Nicholas says Rees-Mogg’s behaviour has nothing to do with his school. “I thought it was bloody bad manners and he of all people should know better. He has had all the advantages and frankly nanny made a serious bish. I wanted to kick him firmly in the arse and say, ‘What the hell do you think you are playing at? Sit up!’ ” His speech in the Brexit debate was “the lowest form of student union hackery, insolence and bad manners”.
    I love how Nick Soames is now being heralded by the left as some paragon of virtue, when in the past they have viewed him with contempt as a bed-blocker with old-fashioned views. His name isn't mentioned now without "grandson of Winston Churchill" added on the end. A distinctly average politician, regardless of who his grandfather was.
    The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Convention is VONC leads to a General Election. FTPA just adds a 14 day cooling off period to that.

    I refer you to the relevant para of the Government Cabinet Manual :

    "Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, if a government is defeated on a motion that ‘this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, there is then a 14-day period during which an alternative government can be formed from the House of Commons as presently constituted, or the incumbent government can seek to regain the confidence of the House. If no government can secure the confidence of the House of Commons during that period, through the approval of a motion that ‘this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, a general election will take place."

    Who decides which VoC will be accepted for a vote ? Can anybody put up a motion ?
    The LotO has precedence in tabling a VoNC. The LibDems attempted some months back and the Speaker refused the motion. The government could use their own time to VoNC themselves should the Speaker determine the motion was in order.
  • Options
    RobD said:
    Absolutely.
  • Options
    TGOHF said:

    “Boris shouldn’t have withdrawn the whip blah blah..”


    https://twitter.com/chrismasonbbc/status/1170009234471305217?s=21

    LOL!

    I believe she should stand for a General Election with that policy in her manifesto then. Good riddance!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    RobD said:


    From the article it sounded quite popular.

    I don't think so, they quote a reader poll of a right-wing newspaper, and get 59% in favour (think "a Daily Telegraph poll of its readers found..."), and it's not something people are really interested in so they'd be easily swayed by the arguments made in the paper.
    Was it a poll of their readers or a poll in that paper? If it's the later, it can be dismissed, but we don't dismiss polls just because of what newspaper they are published in.
  • Options
    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:
    Love it. On Rees Mogg: "He is an absolute fraud, he is a living example of what a moderately cut double-breasted suit and a decent tie can do with an ultra-posh voice and a bit of ginger stuck up his arse. You do not behave like that as leader of the House.” Both men went to Eton but Sir Nicholas says Rees-Mogg’s behaviour has nothing to do with his school. “I thought it was bloody bad manners and he of all people should know better. He has had all the advantages and frankly nanny made a serious bish. I wanted to kick him firmly in the arse and say, ‘What the hell do you think you are playing at? Sit up!’ ” His speech in the Brexit debate was “the lowest form of student union hackery, insolence and bad manners”.
    I love how Nick Soames is now being heralded by the left as some paragon of virtue, when in the past they have viewed him with contempt as a bed-blocker with old-fashioned views. His name isn't mentioned now without "grandson of Winston Churchill" added on the end. A distinctly average politician, regardless of who his grandfather was.
    Of course he's going to be feted by the opposition if he rips into the government. That's only human nature.
    It's idiot nature.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Scott_P said:
    The Tories lost Guildford to the LDs in 2001.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    JackW said:

    FTPA geeks - re: my last couple of exchanges with Big G.

    Do you agree Boris has "14 days protection" from the FTPA?

    It looks to me as if that's just the deadline for him or anyone reconstituting an administration before an election's called (ie *anyone* can seek confidence in that period and end the process).

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

    As dyedwoolie said, prorogation may make the point moot anyway.. but it would be interesting to know how swiftly a subsequent VOC could happen in practice.

    Boris will give notice that Parliament is prorogued at the end of the VONC.
    Prorogation does not prevent the Queen appointing a new Prime Minister.
    But the statutory process under the FTPA of getting to a new PM will have been stalled by prorogation.....
    This question asked in the Lords on 3 September is relevant:

    Lord Cormack

    To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the powers available to recall Parliament during a prorogation in the event of a national or international crisis.

    Earl Howe (Con)

    My Lords, once Parliament has been prorogued it cannot be recalled. However, the sovereign, acting on the advice of Ministers, may issue a new proclamation setting an earlier date for the beginning of the new Session.
    Yeah, she might be advised by her ministers not to recall Parliament, but she’d be within her rights to do so.
    The answer was that it's not possible to recall parliament once it's been prorogued, but it is possible to start the new session at an earlier date than previously announced.
    I apologise, liberal use of the word "recall" there!
    OK, but the substantive point is that at the point at which bringing back parliament became relevant, the prime minister with the power to advise the Queen would be the newly appointed one, not Boris Johnson.
    What newly appointed PM? There won't be one.
    We don't know what's going to happen, and frankly anyone who pretends they do is being daft.

    I am explaining how it would be possible for a newly appointed PM to obtain a VOC despite parliament having been prorogued.
  • Options
    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    FTPA geeks - re: my last couple of exchanges with Big G.

    Do you agree Boris has "14 days protection" from the FTPA?

    It looks to me as if that's just the deadline for him or anyone reconstituting an administration before an election's called (ie *anyone* can seek confidence in that period and end the process).

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

    As dyedwoolie said, prorogation may make the point moot anyway.. but it would be interesting to know how swiftly a subsequent VOC could happen in practice.

    Boris will give notice that Parliament is prorogued at the end of the VONC.
    Prorogation does not prevent the Queen appointing a new Prime Minister.
    She would need to sack her current one. Unlikely.
    If the Conservatives VONC their own Prime Minister I see no reason why Her Majesty shouldn't take them at their word. I believe Her Majesty would not be best pleased with Boris and the Conservatives playing fast and loose with such conventions.

    Exit Boris enter AN OTHER.
    Convention is VONC leads to a General Election. FTPA just adds a 14 day cooling off period to that.
    Would Corbyn take the 14 days, or just VONC himself immediately?
    Corbyn wouldn't get in. He won't be called for unless he demonstrates he can command the house.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    RobD said:


    From the article it sounded quite popular.

    I don't think so, they quote a reader poll of a right-wing newspaper, and get 59% in favour (think "a Daily Telegraph poll of its readers found..."), and it's not something people are really interested in so they'd be easily swayed by the arguments made in the paper.
    Was it a poll of their readers or a poll in that paper? If it's the later, it can be dismissed, but we don't dismiss polls just because of what newspaper they are published in.
    I'm just going by the linked article but it says a poll of their readers.
  • Options
    That quote by Boris of David Cameron that he was a “girly swot” has increased my opinion of him.

    He means he did some work. Boris sees that as a negative.

    He also seems to have some Billy Bunter attitudes to women, which explains a lot.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    RobD said:

    RobD said:


    From the article it sounded quite popular.

    I don't think so, they quote a reader poll of a right-wing newspaper, and get 59% in favour (think "a Daily Telegraph poll of its readers found..."), and it's not something people are really interested in so they'd be easily swayed by the arguments made in the paper.
    Was it a poll of their readers or a poll in that paper? If it's the later, it can be dismissed, but we don't dismiss polls just because of what newspaper they are published in.
    I'm just going by the linked article but it says a poll of their readers.
    Ah, thanks. I would have no hope of tracking down the source, or even interpreting the article had I found it.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    FTPA geeks - re: my last couple of exchanges with Big G.

    Do you agree Boris has "14 days protection" from the FTPA?

    It looks to me as if that's just the deadline for him or anyone reconstituting an administration before an election's called (ie *anyone* can seek confidence in that period and end the process).

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

    As dyedwoolie said, prorogation may make the point moot anyway.. but it would be interesting to know how swiftly a subsequent VOC could happen in practice.

    Boris will give notice that Parliament is prorogued at the end of the VONC.
    Prorogation does not prevent the Queen appointing a new Prime Minister.
    She would need to sack her current one. Unlikely.
    If the Conservatives VONC their own Prime Minister I see no reason why Her Majesty shouldn't take them at their word. I believe Her Majesty would not be best pleased with Boris and the Conservatives playing fast and loose with such conventions.

    Exit Boris enter AN OTHER.
    Convention is VONC leads to a General Election. FTPA just adds a 14 day cooling off period to that.
    Would Corbyn take the 14 days, or just VONC himself immediately?
    Corbyn wouldn't get in. He won't be called for unless he demonstrates he can command the house.
    What happens if Boris resigns then and there's no alternative? Can the Queen herself recommend an election?
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Convention is VONC leads to a General Election. FTPA just adds a 14 day cooling off period to that.

    I refer you to the relevant para of the Government Cabinet Manual :

    "Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, if a government is defeated on a motion that ‘this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, there is then a 14-day period during which an alternative government can be formed from the House of Commons as presently constituted, or the incumbent government can seek to regain the confidence of the House. If no government can secure the confidence of the House of Commons during that period, through the approval of a motion that ‘this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, a general election will take place."

    That backs what I said. If no alternative government is found that can secure confidence of the house then election.
    The point being that the Opposition has the scope and numbers to advise the Queen through channels that AN OTHER has the prospect of confidence and will seek the approval of the HoC and thus prevent Boris from having his general election in October which is what the Opposition desire.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:
    Love it. On Rees Mogg: "He is an absolute fraud, he is a living example of what a moderately cut double-breasted suit and a decent tie can do with an ultra-posh voice and a bit of ginger stuck up his arse. You do not behave like that as leader of the House.” Both men went to Eton but Sir Nicholas says Rees-Mogg’s behaviour has nothing to do with his school. “I thought it was bloody bad manners and he of all people should know better. He has had all the advantages and frankly nanny made a serious bish. I wanted to kick him firmly in the arse and say, ‘What the hell do you think you are playing at? Sit up!’ ” His speech in the Brexit debate was “the lowest form of student union hackery, insolence and bad manners”.
    I love how Nick Soames is now being heralded by the left as some paragon of virtue, when in the past they have viewed him with contempt as a bed-blocker with old-fashioned views. His name isn't mentioned now without "grandson of Winston Churchill" added on the end. A distinctly average politician, regardless of who his grandfather was.
    Of course he's going to be feted by the opposition if he rips into the government. That's only human nature.
    It's idiot nature.
    Interestingly he was quite chummy with Mugabe in a visit in 2017 apparently.
  • Options
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    edited September 2019
    When the Government comes back from being prorogued for the Queen's Speech on the 14th October, there is then a period of debate of that Queen's Speech. Anyone know - can a VONC be heard in that period during which the speech is being debated? Or does the Queen's speech take priority over all other business?
  • Options

    That quote by Boris of David Cameron that he was a “girly swot” has increased my opinion of him.

    He means he did some work. Boris sees that as a negative.

    He also seems to have some Billy Bunter attitudes to women, which explains a lot.

    Boris has always been pissed off that Dave got a first whilst he only got an upper second.
  • Options
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    JackW said:

    FTPA geeks - re: my last couple of exchanges with Big G.

    Do you agree Boris has "14 days protection" from the FTPA?

    It looks to me as if that's just the deadline for him or anyone reconstituting an administration before an election's called (ie *anyone* can seek confidence in that period and end the process).

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

    As dyedwoolie said, prorogation may make the point moot anyway.. but it would be interesting to know how swiftly a subsequent VOC could happen in practice.

    Boris will give notice that Parliament is prorogued at the end of the VONC.
    Prorogation does not prevent the Queen appointing a new Prime Minister.
    But the statutory process under the FTPA of getting to a new PM will have been stalled by prorogation.....
    This question asked in the Lords on 3 September is relevant:

    Lord Cormack

    To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the powers available to recall Parliament during a prorogation in the event of a national or international crisis.

    Earl Howe (Con)

    My Lords, once Parliament has been prorogued it cannot be recalled. However, the sovereign, acting on the advice of Ministers, may issue a new proclamation setting an earlier date for the beginning of the new Session.
    Yeah, she might be advised by her ministers not to recall Parliament, but she’d be within her rights to do so.
    The answer was that it's not possible to recall parliament once it's been prorogued, but it is possible to start the new session at an earlier date than previously announced.
    I apologise, liberal use of the word "recall" there!
    OK, but the substantive point is that at the point at which bringing back parliament became relevant, the prime minister with the power to advise the Queen would be the newly appointed one, not Boris Johnson.
    What newly appointed PM? There won't be one.
    We don't know what's going to happen, and frankly anyone who pretends they do is being daft.

    I am explaining how it would be possible for a newly appointed PM to obtain a VOC despite parliament having been prorogued.
    Yes but you haven't explained how a new PM gets appointed. A VONC does not automatically result in the PM leaving Downing Street or a new one arriving.
  • Options
    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Scott_P said:
    Why did the Scottish judge redact it in the first place ? No State secrets were involved.
  • Options
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    FTPA geeks - re: my last couple of exchanges with Big G.

    Do you agree Boris has "14 days protection" from the FTPA?

    It looks to me as if that's just the deadline for him or anyone reconstituting an administration before an election's called (ie *anyone* can seek confidence in that period and end the process).

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

    As dyedwoolie said, prorogation may make the point moot anyway.. but it would be interesting to know how swiftly a subsequent VOC could happen in practice.

    Boris will give notice that Parliament is prorogued at the end of the VONC.
    Prorogation does not prevent the Queen appointing a new Prime Minister.
    She would need to sack her current one. Unlikely.
    If the Conservatives VONC their own Prime Minister I see no reason why Her Majesty shouldn't take them at their word. I believe Her Majesty would not be best pleased with Boris and the Conservatives playing fast and loose with such conventions.

    Exit Boris enter AN OTHER.
    Convention is VONC leads to a General Election. FTPA just adds a 14 day cooling off period to that.
    Would Corbyn take the 14 days, or just VONC himself immediately?
    Corbyn wouldn't get in. He won't be called for unless he demonstrates he can command the house.
    What happens if Boris resigns then and there's no alternative? Can the Queen herself recommend an election?
    No. There will always be an alternative.

    It’ll be the LOTO first and if that doesn’t look likely she’ll take “soundings”, which means the opposition parties and rebels will agree a compromise candidate.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    That quote by Boris of David Cameron that he was a “girly swot” has increased my opinion of him.

    He means he did some work. Boris sees that as a negative.

    He also seems to have some Billy Bunter attitudes to women, which explains a lot.

    Boris has always been pissed off that Dave got a first whilst he only got an upper second.
    I think we can all agree that Cameron is quite superior to Boris... especially if you ignore the referendum snafu :p
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    That quote by Boris of David Cameron that he was a “girly swot” has increased my opinion of him.

    He means he did some work. Boris sees that as a negative.

    He also seems to have some Billy Bunter attitudes to women, which explains a lot.

    Boris has always been pissed off that Dave got a first whilst he only got an upper second.
    If he can win a majority perhaps he'll finally get over it.
  • Options
    ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    edited September 2019
    Scott_P said:
    The Venn diagram of “leave minded voters Boris wants” and “people who have an issue with those phrases” is two entirely separate circles.

    It may be he’s aiming for a far too narrow coalition (I think that’s possible) but based on his strategy, this won’t worry him.
  • Options
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Convention is VONC leads to a General Election. FTPA just adds a 14 day cooling off period to that.

    I refer you to the relevant para of the Government Cabinet Manual :

    "Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, if a government is defeated on a motion that ‘this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, there is then a 14-day period during which an alternative government can be formed from the House of Commons as presently constituted, or the incumbent government can seek to regain the confidence of the House. If no government can secure the confidence of the House of Commons during that period, through the approval of a motion that ‘this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, a general election will take place."

    That backs what I said. If no alternative government is found that can secure confidence of the house then election.
    The point being that the Opposition has the scope and numbers to advise the Queen through channels that AN OTHER has the prospect of confidence and will seek the approval of the HoC and thus prevent Boris from having his general election in October which is what the Opposition desire.
    Only if AN OTHER can command a majority. If they can so be it.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Scott_P said:
    Oh the outrage, the humanity, he used the phrase girly! The woke generation are screaming to the sky and weeping wounded tears at the horrors of it all
    It really didn't require an intervention Jo, fauxrage is not a vote winner
  • Options
    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Tories lost Guildford to the LDs in 2001.
    This also means many Surrey seats are expected to go. Maybe only Hammond can save the Tories. Gove could go.

  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Is Boris still intending to force the Queen to reopen parliament after the prorogation?
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    JackW said:


    Boris will give notice that Parliament is prorogued at the end of the VONC.

    Prorogation does not prevent the Queen appointing a new Prime Minister.
    But the statutory process under the FTPA of getting to a new PM will have been stalled by prorogation.....
    This question asked in the Lords on 3 September is relevant:

    Lord Cormack

    To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the powers available to recall Parliament during a prorogation in the event of a national or international crisis.

    Earl Howe (Con)

    My Lords, once Parliament has been prorogued it cannot be recalled. However, the sovereign, acting on the advice of Ministers, may issue a new proclamation setting an earlier date for the beginning of the new Session.
    Yeah, she might be advised by her ministers not to recall Parliament, but she’d be within her rights to do so.
    The answer was that it's not possible to recall parliament once it's been prorogued, but it is possible to start the new session at an earlier date than previously announced.
    I apologise, liberal use of the word "recall" there!
    OK, but the substantive point is that at the point at which bringing back parliament became relevant, the prime minister with the power to advise the Queen would be the newly appointed one, not Boris Johnson.
    What newly appointed PM? There won't be one.
    We don't know what's going to happen, and frankly anyone who pretends they do is being daft.

    I am explaining how it would be possible for a newly appointed PM to obtain a VOC despite parliament having been prorogued.
    Yes but you haven't explained how a new PM gets appointed. A VONC does not automatically result in the PM leaving Downing Street or a new one arriving.
    Sorry, I'm not going to waste time explaining yet again to you how a prime minister is appointed in the UK. I think you know that very well.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Scott_P said:
    Love it. On Rees Mogg: "He is an absolute fraud, he is a living example of what a moderately cut double-breasted suit and a decent tie can do with an ultra-posh voice and a bit of ginger stuck up his arse. You do not behave like that as leader of the House.” Both men went to Eton but Sir Nicholas says Rees-Mogg’s behaviour has nothing to do with his school. “I thought it was bloody bad manners and he of all people should know better. He has had all the advantages and frankly nanny made a serious bish. I wanted to kick him firmly in the arse and say, ‘What the hell do you think you are playing at? Sit up!’ ” His speech in the Brexit debate was “the lowest form of student union hackery, insolence and bad manners”.
    I love how Nick Soames is now being heralded by the left as some paragon of virtue, when in the past they have viewed him with contempt as a bed-blocker with old-fashioned views. His name isn't mentioned now without "grandson of Winston Churchill" added on the end. A distinctly average politician, regardless of who his grandfather was.
    Criticising Boris for chucking Sir Nicholas out at the same time as chanelling his grandfather was a particularly absurd piece of twitter idiocy. Who know these people were such big fans of the hereditary principle?
    Asking the question just shows an ignorance on your part of how the media works. It has nothing to do with the hereditary principle.
  • Options
    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    That quote by Boris of David Cameron that he was a “girly swot” has increased my opinion of him.

    He means he did some work. Boris sees that as a negative.

    He also seems to have some Billy Bunter attitudes to women, which explains a lot.

    Boris, who has boobs and quotes Cicero, called someone a "girly swot"?
  • Options
    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Convention is VONC leads to a General Election. FTPA just adds a 14 day cooling off period to that.

    I refer you to the relevant para of the Government Cabinet Manual :

    "Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, if a government is defeated on a motion that ‘this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, there is then a 14-day period during which an alternative government can be formed from the House of Commons as presently constituted, or the incumbent government can seek to regain the confidence of the House. If no government can secure the confidence of the House of Commons during that period, through the approval of a motion that ‘this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, a general election will take place."

    Who decides which VoC will be accepted for a vote ? Can anybody put up a motion ?
    The LotO has precedence in tabling a VoNC. The LibDems attempted some months back and the Speaker refused the motion. The government could use their own time to VoNC themselves should the Speaker determine the motion was in order.
    Thanks, Jack. But I was talking about a VoC. Can anyone submit a motion ?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    edited September 2019

    Scott_P said:
    Oh the outrage, the humanity, he used the phrase girly! The woke generation are screaming to the sky and weeping wounded tears at the horrors of it all
    It really didn't require an intervention Jo, fauxrage is not a vote winner
    I'm not offended or outraged about it, it just shows how much of a prat Boris is that he immediately jumps to puerile insults even on a bloody memo. And you're wrong, fauxrage is a winner, which is why people do it all the time, leaping on any minor wording use or creatively misinterpreting what was said as needed. It pleases their votes, and left and right do it.
  • Options
    ab195 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Venn diagram of “leave minded voters Boris wants” and “people who have an issue with those phrases” is two entirely separate circles.

    It may be he’s aiming for a far too narrow coalition (I think that’s possible) but based on his strategy, this won’t worry him.
    Are the people in the first circle exclusively male?
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited September 2019

    Scott_P said:
    Oh the outrage, the humanity, he used the phrase girly! The woke generation are screaming to the sky and weeping wounded tears at the horrors of it all
    It really didn't require an intervention Jo, fauxrage is not a vote winner
    The woke generation are also locking girls out of school and calling the police on them because they want to wear skirts.

    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1169990428759875585

    The culture war is starting.
  • Options
    ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    edited September 2019
    Streeter said:

    ab195 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Venn diagram of “leave minded voters Boris wants” and “people who have an issue with those phrases” is two entirely separate circles.

    It may be he’s aiming for a far too narrow coalition (I think that’s possible) but based on his strategy, this won’t worry him.
    Are the people in the first circle exclusively male?
    Don’t be silly.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,810
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Convention is VONC leads to a General Election. FTPA just adds a 14 day cooling off period to that.

    I refer you to the relevant para of the Government Cabinet Manual :

    "Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, if a government is defeated on a motion that ‘this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, there is then a 14-day period during which an alternative government can be formed from the House of Commons as presently constituted, or the incumbent government can seek to regain the confidence of the House. If no government can secure the confidence of the House of Commons during that period, through the approval of a motion that ‘this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, a general election will take place."

    That backs what I said. If no alternative government is found that can secure confidence of the house then election.
    The point being that the Opposition has the scope and numbers to advise the Queen through channels that AN OTHER has the prospect of confidence and will seek the approval of the HoC and thus prevent Boris from having his general election in October which is what the Opposition desire.
    I think the method if Boris doesn't tell the Queen to ask for Corbyn is soundings. Get your people to talk to relevant Privy Counsellors, to Jo, to Ken, to Mr Speaker. I'm not sure how such advice to the Queen is collated and finalised, but my understanding is there are methods, ex-Boris, to decide this.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
  • Options

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Convention is VONC leads to a General Election. FTPA just adds a 14 day cooling off period to that.

    I refer you to the relevant para of the Government Cabinet Manual :

    "Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, if a government is defeated on a motion that ‘this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, there is then a 14-day period during which an alternative government can be formed from the House of Commons as presently constituted, or the incumbent government can seek to regain the confidence of the House. If no government can secure the confidence of the House of Commons during that period, through the approval of a motion that ‘this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, a general election will take place."

    Who decides which VoC will be accepted for a vote ? Can anybody put up a motion ?
    The LotO has precedence in tabling a VoNC. The LibDems attempted some months back and the Speaker refused the motion. The government could use their own time to VoNC themselves should the Speaker determine the motion was in order.
    Thanks, Jack. But I was talking about a VoC. Can anyone submit a motion ?
    Callaghan submitted VoC in his own government twice.
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    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    JackW said:


    Boris will give notice that Parliament is prorogued at the end of the VONC.

    Prorogation does not prevent the Queen appointing a new Prime Minister.
    But the statutory process under the FTPA of getting to a new PM will have been stalled by prorogation.....
    This question asked in the Lords on 3 September is relevant:

    Lord Cormack

    To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the powers available to recall Parliament during a prorogation in the event of a national or international crisis.

    Earl Howe (Con)

    My Lords, once Parliament has been prorogued it cannot be recalled. However, the sovereign, acting on the advice of Ministers, may issue a new proclamation setting an earlier date for the beginning of the new Session.
    Yeah, she might be advised by her ministers not to recall Parliament, but she’d be within her rights to do so.
    The answer was that it's not possible to recall parliament once it's been prorogued, but it is possible to start the new session at an earlier date than previously announced.
    I apologise, liberal use of the word "recall" there!
    OK, but the substantive point is that at the point at which bringing back parliament became relevant, the prime minister with the power to advise the Queen would be the newly appointed one, not Boris Johnson.
    What newly appointed PM? There won't be one.
    We don't know what's going to happen, and frankly anyone who pretends they do is being daft.

    I am explaining how it would be possible for a newly appointed PM to obtain a VOC despite parliament having been prorogued.
    Yes but you haven't explained how a new PM gets appointed. A VONC does not automatically result in the PM leaving Downing Street or a new one arriving.
    Sorry, I'm not going to waste time explaining yet again to you how a prime minister is appointed in the UK. I think you know that very well.
    I do know. The existing PM remains in situ until soundings demonstrate that someone else definitely can command the house. See 1979 and 2010.

    There's no game of musical chairs or first dibs.
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    TGOHF said:
    And grow a pair?
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    On girliness: during the Conservative leadership election, one or two were offended and outraged by Hunt calling on Johnson to 'man up' and face him in earlier debates.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,720
    Noo said:

    That quote by Boris of David Cameron that he was a “girly swot” has increased my opinion of him.

    He means he did some work. Boris sees that as a negative.

    He also seems to have some Billy Bunter attitudes to women, which explains a lot.

    Boris, who has boobs and quotes Cicero, called someone a "girly swot"?
    It's also that he applied the name to someone who has the reputation, fairly or otherwise, of being an essay crisis merchant (in Oxford undergraduese - Anglice, last minute panic worker).
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    RobD said:
    So long as it's for healthy reasons and not illness. Weight loss can be good news or concerning I hope it is good news for him.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I don't think Boris will break the law, but he's not going to extend either. So it's either resignation or some other cunning plan that no-one has thought of.
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    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    AndyJS said:

    I don't think Boris will break the law, but he's not going to extend either. So it's either resignation or some other cunning plan that no-one has thought of.

    Where is Baldrick ?

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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The subject of a government calling a vote of no confidence in itself to game the rules was discussed during the debate over the FTPA .

    And a certain Mark Harper at the time called it unconstitutional !

    It is however perfectly legal , these worries were dismissed at the time as negligible because politically it was expected that the public fall out would put governments off doing this but we don’t live in normal times .

    I think the issue is whether the motion derived from the FTPA is amendable . It does fall under a substantive motion so ordinarily that is amendable .

    This when you look at it though feels a bit strange because surely the government could amend it to nullify the legality if it wanted to remain in power .

    There seems to be a lack of clarity as to what the exact situation is re amendments .

    Any constitutional experts in here ?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:
    And grow a pair?
    And suck it up.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    JackW said:


    Boris will give notice that Parliament is prorogued at the end of the VONC.

    Prorogation does not prevent the Queen appointing a new Prime Minister.
    But the statutory process under the FTPA of getting to a new PM will have been stalled by prorogation.....
    This question asked in the Lords on 3 September is relevant:

    Lord Cormack

    To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the powers available to recall Parliament during a prorogation in the event of a national or international crisis.

    Earl Howe (Con)

    My Lords, once Parliament has been prorogued it cannot be recalled. However, the sovereign, acting on the advice of Ministers, may issue a new proclamation setting an earlier date for the beginning of the new Session.
    Yeah, she might be advised by her ministers not to recall Parliament, but she’d be within her rights to do so.
    The answer was that it's not possible to recall parliament once it's been prorogued, but it is possible to start the new session at an earlier date than previously announced.
    I apologise, liberal use of the word "recall" there!
    OK, but the substantive point is that at the point at which bringing back parliament became relevant, the prime minister with the power to advise the Queen would be the newly appointed one, not Boris Johnson.
    What newly appointed PM? There won't be one.
    We don't know what's going to happen, and frankly anyone who pretends they do is being daft.

    I am explaining how it would be possible for a newly appointed PM to obtain a VOC despite parliament having been prorogued.
    Yes but you haven't explained how a new PM gets appointed. A VONC does not automatically result in the PM leaving Downing Street or a new one arriving.
    Sorry, I'm not going to waste time explaining yet again to you how a prime minister is appointed in the UK. I think you know that very well.
    I do know. The existing PM remains in situ until soundings demonstrate that someone else definitely can command the house. See 1979 and 2010.

    There's no game of musical chairs or first dibs.
    Good. I was right. You knew all along.
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    Mr. kle4, not puerile at all!

    [Puer is 'boy' in Latin. Girl is 'puella', I think].
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    AndyJS said:

    I don't think Boris will break the law, but he's not going to extend either. So it's either resignation or some other cunning plan that no-one has thought of.

    Drug induced coma during October?
    A small war?
    Letter lost in the mail?
This discussion has been closed.