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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will next set of polls show? I have no idea

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  • Even at the height of his No Deal madman act, Johnson is losing ground to the Brexit Party and his personal ratings have gone negative. He’s done.

    Yepp.

    He had a window. It just closed.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited September 2019
    Oh well, so much for my predicitons. :D

    People WANT a general election now though so I still think Remainers are playing with fire denying them one.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Even at the height of his No Deal madman act, Johnson is losing ground to the Brexit Party and his personal ratings have gone negative. He’s done.

    Not PM material. Gove called it in 2016. Wonder when he'll take over?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    HYUFD said:

    The public want Boris Johnson to resign if we haven't left by the 31st of October.

    Which he will to become Leader of the Opposition
    And face a confidence vote at the 1922 I would suspect...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Any movement from the Tories to the Brexit Party with LDs also down. Labour unchanged. So Boris must stand his ground.

    Boris standing his ground is essential. The Tories are in decent shape if he does and lost otherwise.
    Yes, none of the 21 can be allowed to stand again as Tories at the next general election.

    Every Tory candidate must sign a pledge, in blood if necessary, to leave the EU Deal or No Deal
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,079
    dixiedean said:

    Is there any change figure for that Best PM? 46-26 while bad, doesn't seem as bad for Jezza...

    Yes, I thought so too.

    Jezza looked quite sane and even statesman-like this week in comparison to Johnson.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    HYUFD said:

    If last night's council by election result swings are anything to go by Boris should have increased his poll lead while Labour could even collapse to third behind the LDs, with Labour Leave voters going Brexit Party or Tory and Labour Remainers going LD

    Won't an increased Conservative lead just make Labour dig their heels in further re: election? They just have to sit tight and wait for the tide to turn after halloween.
    It won't turn. As the news is suggesting this evening Boris will refuse to extend, go into opposition if necessary and refuse to bow down to the diehard Remainer traitors to democracy in Parliament and lead phase 2 of the war to deliver Brexit from opposition promising to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal if he wins a majority at the next election.

    He will be a hero to his party and Leavers for refusing to give in to the treachery in the Commons
    You are not measured in any of your recent posts and give every impression you are in a blind panic and lashing out in an absurd and vindictive manner

    You would not behave this way if you thought you were winning, rather than losing
    We are winning the country as the weekend polls will likely show, we are not winning the Commons and Lords that is all
    Clearly not.
    Clearly, a 5% Tory poll lead with Boris with a big lead as preferred PM and voters preferring No Deal to a Corbyn Premiership by almost 2 to 1
    It’s just a flesh wound.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    dixiedean said:

    Is there any change figure for that Best PM? 46-26 while bad, doesn't seem as bad for Jezza...

    26 is one of the highest results for Corbyn in a long time .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Foxy said:

    Brexiteers do not trust BoZo? Perhaps they are not as dim as they seem.

    Farage is just so much better. If I were a Leaver of the 'hard' variety - and aren't they all? - I would be going that route.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Streeter said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    HYUFD said:

    If last night's council by election result swings are anything to go by Boris should have increased his poll lead while Labour could even collapse to third behind the LDs, with Labour Leave voters going Brexit Party or Tory and Labour Remainers going LD

    Won't an increased Conservative lead just make Labour dig their heels in further re: election? They just have to sit tight and wait for the tide to turn after halloween.
    It won't turn. As the news is suggesting this evening Boris will refuse to extend, go into opposition if necessary and refuse to bow down to the diehard Remainer traitors to democracy in Parliament and lead phase 2 of the war to deliver Brexit from opposition promising to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal if he wins a majority at the next election.

    He will be a hero to his party and Leavers for refusing to give in to the treachery in the Commons
    You are not measured in any of your recent posts and give every impression you are in a blind panic and lashing out in an absurd and vindictive manner

    You would not behave this way if you thought you were winning, rather than losing
    We are winning the country as the weekend polls will likely show, we are not winning the Commons and Lords that is all
    Clearly not.
    Clearly, a 5% Tory poll lead with Boris with a big lead as preferred PM and voters preferring No Deal to a Corbyn Premiership by almost 2 to 1
    It’s just a flesh wound.
    Margin of error :cold_sweat:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    There is a danger with all these games Remainers are playing that people will juist give up on Con and move to Farage and the Brexit Party then really takes off and ends up winning enough seats from Con and Lab to hold the balance of power.

    FPTP makes it unlikely but I don't think you can rule it out...
  • +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited September 2019
    Kuennsberg reporting Boris is having a meeting with Cummings and da Costa at Chevening on Sunday (just the three of them). I wouldn't be surprised if they're discussing if he should resign.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Any movement from the Tories to the Brexit Party with LDs also down. Labour unchanged. So Boris must stand his ground.

    Boris standing his ground is essential. The Tories are in decent shape if he does and lost otherwise.
    Yes, none of the 21 can be allowed to stand again as Tories at the next general election.

    Every Tory candidate must sign a pledge, in blood if necessary, to leave the EU Deal or No Deal
    Will they also be sacrificing a few virgins to the Brexit God !
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yawn. Getty are notoriously litigious and
    Charles said:

    eek said:
    The fact that it doesn’t have “Getty Inages@ across it suggests that it was properly licensed not “pirated”

    The person who tweeted it however stole it. Limited personal use is allowed free of charge but a journalist tweeting it could be deemed in furtherance of his work
    The image would have been licensed by CCHQ, any journalist retweeting it would fall under fair use laws.
    Not sure on fair use - it’s going to be very widespread circulation, unlike a picture in a paper. The argument would be his career might well benefit from the high profile it generates
  • Great figures from Survation. You have to see the Boris project as a Rocket launch. Lift off and ascent aren't enough. He needs escape velocity. The polling and this week's events suggest he doesn't have escape velocity. So while he is still going up and in flight the return to earth and crash is inevitable. As soon as Boris becomes just another PM people will notice he isn't a very good one.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,619
    The Labour strategy is working.

    Keep Boris on the pot.

    Let him stew.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2019

    Even at the height of his No Deal madman act, Johnson is losing ground to the Brexit Party and his personal ratings have gone negative. He’s done.

    Boris has a huge 46% to 26% lead over Corbyn as preferred PM on tonight's poll so of course he is not done and according to Electoral Calculus on tonight's Survation poll it would be Tories 311, Labour 219, LDs 48, Brexit Party 15.

    So Boris could still form a government with the Brexit Party and DUP or else Swinson would have the balance of power and likely refuse to back Corbyn as PM


    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=29&LAB=24&LIB=18&Brexit=17&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Surprised at the public actually approving of the expulsions! :open_mouth:
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    GIN1138 said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    There is a danger with all these games Remainers are playing that people will juist give up on Con and move to Farage and the Brexit Party then really takes off and ends up winning enough seats from Con and Lab to hold the balance of power.

    FPTP makes it unlikely but I don't think you can rule it out...
    It's almost like there's a significant number of people who want Brexit done at any cost.

    As I've said for the hundredth or so time, the threshold for brexit isn't 51% in a referendum, it's 30-ish% in a general election that puts a hard brexit party in power and we leave that way.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,079
    edited September 2019

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Mrs Foxy mootng today a move to Scotland, for much those reasons. Will have to dust off my volume of Burns.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    GIN1138 said:

    Surprised at the public actually approving of the expulsions! :open_mouth:

    They want leadership, no more procrastinating, compromise and fudge.

  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    HYUFD said:


    Boris has a huge 46% to 26% lead over Corbyn ……

    That's not exactly a high bar. What's more, Johnson's positives will lower over time.
  • HYUFD said:

    The public want Boris Johnson to resign if we haven't left by the 31st of October.

    Which he will to become Leader of the Opposition
    Says the man who predicted that Chuka Umunna would lead the Labour Party. Outstanding knowledge and judgement.

    The Tories won’t be able to flush the turd quickly enough. And BoZo is so deluded, he’ll think this is the start of his Churchillian “Wilderness Years”.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Any movement from the Tories to the Brexit Party with LDs also down. Labour unchanged. So Boris must stand his ground.

    Boris standing his ground is essential. The Tories are in decent shape if he does and lost otherwise.
    Yes, none of the 21 can be allowed to stand again as Tories at the next general election.

    Every Tory candidate must sign a pledge, in blood if necessary, to leave the EU Deal or No Deal
    And rumour has it some MPs are unhappy about that requirement but are waiting for the next opportunity to walk away.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    D'Ancona on Boris and political showbiz.
    "One week you're Stormzy, the next you wake up as Michael Barrymore."
    Good line.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Surprised at the public actually approving of the expulsions! :open_mouth:

    Leavers glad to see the traitors expelled

    Remainers glad to see Boris losing his majority

    Win win!
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    GIN1138 said:

    Surprised at the public actually approving of the expulsions! :open_mouth:

    Chimes with general public dislike of politicians.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,079

    The Labour strategy is working.

    Keep Boris on the pot.

    Let him stew.

    Yep.

    A chicken in every pot.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Kuennsberg reporting Boris is having a meeting with Cummings and da Costa at Chevening on Sunday (just the three of them). I wouldn't be surprised if they're discussing if he should resign.

    If I were him, it would be they should resign.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited September 2019

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    38% of votes in Scotland in the EU ref went to Leave, despite a more or less non-existent Leave campaign there.

    The Brexit Party came second in Scotland in the recent EU elections, admittedly a distant second but still creditable.

    Scotland is hardly a Leaver-free zone, however much Sturgeon likes to portray it.
  • dixiedean said:

    D'Ancona on Boris and political showbiz.
    "One week you're Stormzy, the next you wake up as Michael Barrymore."
    Good line.

    That was brilliant.

    Who is that hapless backbencher that CON have put up? Panicky and incoherent. Mind, he was up against Emma Dent Coad, who was equally useless.
  • HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Any movement from the Tories to the Brexit Party with LDs also down. Labour unchanged. So Boris must stand his ground.

    Boris standing his ground is essential. The Tories are in decent shape if he does and lost otherwise.
    Yes, none of the 21 can be allowed to stand again as Tories at the next general election.

    Every Tory candidate must sign a pledge, in blood if necessary, to leave the EU Deal or No Deal
    Blood and soil now.

    Barking. Totally barking.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,619
    TGOHF said:

    Danger for Boris after this week eis that voters are moving straight to the Brexit party not Cons.

    The right must unite.

    Chortle.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    GIN1138 said:

    Surprised at the public actually approving of the expulsions! :open_mouth:

    Most people don't like Tories. The question is what do the people who do like the Tories think of them?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    On topic bigger Tory lead imo.

    Actual campaign it will evaporate though

    Is this a new PB record? At 10:24 I said

    I agree. Tory lead up. However, if and increasingly when, we are still in the EU come November then not.
    You had one job, mate.
    10:25 @Gallowgate produces poll showing Tory lead down 2!

    I wouldn't worry about it. I can f*** up considerably faster than that... :)
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Thinking about the Scottish UNS poll, it is actually in line with the recent all scotland poll, Tory vote drop slightly higher but out if the 13 I'd fancy they are losing more in places like Ayr, Carrick and cumnock, Stirling etc than borders and the NE so given how tight this would make two border seats and aberdeenshire relatively close 3 seats is probably roughly right if they like resources into the easier defences
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,619
    Tactical vote a-coming.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    GIN1138 said:

    Oh well, so much for my predicitons. :D

    People WANT a general election now though so I still think Remainers are playing with fire denying them one.
    I'm not so sure - we have 2 more opinion polls to come and I suspect they may have very different results.
  • Streeter said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    HYUFD said:

    If last night's council by election result swings are anything to go by Boris should have increased his poll lead while Labour could even collapse to third behind the LDs, with Labour Leave voters going Brexit Party or Tory and Labour Remainers going LD

    Won't an increased Conservative lead just make Labour dig their heels in further re: election? They just have to sit tight and wait for the tide to turn after halloween.
    It won't turn. As the news is suggesting this evening Boris will refuse to extend, go into opposition if necessary and refuse to bow down to the diehard Remainer traitors to democracy in Parliament and lead phase 2 of the war to deliver Brexit from opposition promising to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal if he wins a majority at the next election.

    He will be a hero to his party and Leavers for refusing to give in to the treachery in the Commons
    You are not measured in any of your recent posts and give every impression you are in a blind panic and lashing out in an absurd and vindictive manner

    You would not behave this way if you thought you were winning, rather than losing
    We are winning the country as the weekend polls will likely show, we are not winning the Commons and Lords that is all
    Clearly not.
    Clearly, a 5% Tory poll lead with Boris with a big lead as preferred PM and voters preferring No Deal to a Corbyn Premiership by almost 2 to 1
    It’s just a flesh wound.
    What is it about crippled Tory leaders and the Black Night sketch? ‘Tis but a scratch.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited September 2019
    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited September 2019
    It was all so different two months ago :D

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1151925979474010112
  • Kuennsberg reporting Boris is having a meeting with Cummings and da Costa at Chevening on Sunday (just the three of them). I wouldn't be surprised if they're discussing if he should resign.

    Him resigning and trying to fight the coming election as Conservative leader only or even LotO is certainly the logical extension of the Cummings/da Costa strategy. Or perhaps the logical reinforcement of the strategy now it has initially failed.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,619
    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF said:
    Let me summarise that article: to be a true Conservative you must accept the following without question.
    Indeed. Anyone quoting Breitbart has lost the plot.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233
    HYUFD said:

    Every Tory candidate must sign a pledge, in blood if necessary...

    Okay. Do you think that might be a little bit excessive?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2019

    The Labour strategy is working.

    Keep Boris on the pot.

    Let him stew.

    On tonight's poll Boris stays PM but needs the predicted 15 Brexit Party seats for a majority, so Labour's strategy does not remove Boris, it just leads to an even more rightwing and hard Brexit government while losing a predicted 43 Labour seats in the process
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF said:
    Let me summarise that article: to be a true Conservative you must accept the following without question.
    Indeed. Anyone quoting Breitbart has lost the plot.
    You back on the Soubry juice ?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    It's one poll.

    Margin of error.

    Let's see what the others say.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Misleading, it was a poll across all 13 seats not individual seats and just used one headline voteshare
    How many seats do you think they'd hold on a average 30% voteshare?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    Voters aren't so stupid that they forget the existence of a party that they voted for just 4 months ago. I did expect the Tories would be higher in the latest polls (and they might be in the ones we see tomorrow night) but this poll is a reminder of how soft Tory support has become. The more evidence there is that Boris will fail to keep his promise, the lower the Tories will go.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,079
    GIN1138 said:
    When the extension is sorted, I expect Jezza will be keen as mustard again.
  • It's time the Tories choked the chicken meme.

    You can have that one for free, TSE.
  • TGOHF said:
    This is not a columnar conceit. Delly does not really have a thesis; no point to prove. He can only tentatively explain this atmosphere:

    I believe though that Britain is on the verge of entering another golden age. And that Boris Johnson is set to join Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher as one of the three great Conservative Prime Ministers of the last 100 years.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited September 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Any movement from the Tories to the Brexit Party with LDs also down. Labour unchanged. So Boris must stand his ground.

    Boris standing his ground is essential. The Tories are in decent shape if he does and lost otherwise.
    Yes, none of the 21 can be allowed to stand again as Tories at the next general election.

    Every Tory candidate must sign a pledge, in blood if necessary, to leave the EU Deal or No Deal
    Their own blood or that of the traitors?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,079

    It's time the Tories choked the chicken meme.

    You can have that one for free, TSE.

    It is a fowl strategy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:
    When the extension is sorted, I expect Jezza will be keen as mustard again.
    And somehow I don't think 'the big meanie said he didn't want one, but now he does because he thinks he will win' will be a cutting counter from the Tories.
  • Foxy said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Mrs Foxy mootng today a move to Scotland, for much those reasons. Will have to dust off my volume of Burns.
    Mrs Dickson banging on again about a move to London. Will have to dust off my flak jacket.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    The Labour strategy is working.

    Keep Boris on the pot.

    Let him stew.

    On tonight's poll Boris stays PM but needs the predicted 15 Brexit Party seats for a majority, so Labour's strategy does not remove Boris, it just leads to an even more rightwing and hard Brexit government while losing a predicted 44 Labour seats in the process
    What seats are the Brexit Party going to win mate?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Kuennsberg reporting Boris is having a meeting with Cummings and da Costa at Chevening on Sunday (just the three of them). I wouldn't be surprised if they're discussing if he should resign.

    I think she's great. She reminds me of John Cole, but she's substantially prettier.

    She's the one voice in the political arena that I will always listen to at present.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Foxy said:

    It's time the Tories choked the chicken meme.

    You can have that one for free, TSE.

    It is a fowl strategy.
    Unless they cock it up.
  • Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It was all so different two months ago :D

    twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1151925979474010112

    When the extension is sorted, I expect Jezza will be keen as mustard again.
    I suspect Mr Corbyn is as keen as mustard now, but has been duck-taped and locked in a janitor's closet for the weekend
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Omnium said:

    Kuennsberg reporting Boris is having a meeting with Cummings and da Costa at Chevening on Sunday (just the three of them). I wouldn't be surprised if they're discussing if he should resign.

    I think she's great. She reminds me of John Cole, but she's substantially prettier.

    She's the one voice in the political arena that I will always listen to at present.
    I have a massive thing for Kuennsberg not going to lie.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Dadge said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    Voters aren't so stupid that they forget the existence of a party that they voted for just 4 months ago. I did expect the Tories would be higher in the latest polls (and they might be in the ones we see tomorrow night) but this poll is a reminder of how soft Tory support has become. The more evidence there is that Boris will fail to keep his promise, the lower the Tories will go.
    There's also the several million remain supporting Tories who might be being edged away while the Brexit Party are being pandered to.
  • It's time the Tories choked the chicken meme.

    You can have that one for free, TSE.

    Magnificent.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,079
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    It's time the Tories choked the chicken meme.

    You can have that one for free, TSE.

    It is a fowl strategy.
    Unless they cock it up.
    I am expecting poultry rewards...
  • +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    38% of votes in Scotland in the EU ref went to Leave, despite a more or less non-existent Leave campaign there.

    The Brexit Party came second in Scotland in the recent EU elections, admittedly a distant second but still creditable.

    Scotland is hardly a Leaver-free zone, however much Sturgeon likes to portray it.
    I love how the 38% must be respected, but the 62%, and the 45%, must be crushed.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited September 2019

    HYUFD said:

    The Labour strategy is working.

    Keep Boris on the pot.

    Let him stew.

    On tonight's poll Boris stays PM but needs the predicted 15 Brexit Party seats for a majority, so Labour's strategy does not remove Boris, it just leads to an even more rightwing and hard Brexit government while losing a predicted 44 Labour seats in the process
    What seats are the Brexit Party going to win mate?
    And this is the nub - quite likely zero, just like UKIP in 2015. The BP are a different and one senses far more professional beast, and these are different times, but FPTP will continue to be a bummer for them.
  • +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    38% of votes in Scotland in the EU ref went to Leave, despite a more or less non-existent Leave campaign there.

    The Brexit Party came second in Scotland in the recent EU elections, admittedly a distant second but still creditable.

    Scotland is hardly a Leaver-free zone, however much Sturgeon likes to portray it.
    I bet you're one of those people who think the 48% in the UK who voted remain should just shut up and go away.

    As it happens the only street stall I saw during the EU referendum was for Leave. It was about 200m from two of the most Rangers pubs in Glasgow, mind.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,619

    Brexit Party splitting that right vote right open. Tasty.


    Polls are bollocks but I do think that clown Bunter Boris and his dimwit acolytes might succeed in concentrating the minds of broadly sane people.

    ‘Never Corbyns’ might think ‘I’ll vote for my nice Labour MP if she’s best placed to beat the Tories, otherwise happy to vote Liberal’.

    I think some Tory rebels might do well too - Libs should stand down in places like Wantage etc IMO.
  • HYUFD said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
    We started IndyRef1 on 28% and ended up on 45%. We’re absolutely fine about starting IndyRef2 on 50%.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    The Labour strategy is working.

    Keep Boris on the pot.

    Let him stew.

    On tonight's poll Boris stays PM but needs the predicted 15 Brexit Party seats for a majority, so Labour's strategy does not remove Boris, it just leads to an even more rightwing and hard Brexit government while losing a predicted 44 Labour seats in the process
    What seats are the Brexit Party going to win mate?
    Alyn and Deeside, Ashfield, Bolsover, Boston and Skegness, Carmathen West and Pembrokeshire South, Clwyd South, Delyn, Mansfield, Montgomeryshire, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Thurrock, Torfaen, Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham and Ynys Mon according to Electoral Calculus will all go Brexit Party based on tonight's Survation poll.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=29&LAB=24&LIB=18&Brexit=17&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,079
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    Like UKIP the BXP vote is pretty evenly spread, with a high floor but low ceiling. I think they won't win a single seat under FPTP.
  • I think the Tories will gain and Labour lose from the Parliamentary shenanigans. I've put down in prior threads that I expect if this continues the Tories will be on or about 40% by the end of October [especially after Tory Conference] and will not be hurt by a Labour caused extension.

    Survation goes against this. We'll see what happens yet to come but I still stand by my original thoughts.
  • kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    Giving Brexit Party voters what they want only works if Brexit Party voters are transactional. But they aren't. They are rebelling against post-modernity, atomisation and late Capitalism. None of which are going anywhere. Brexit can never happen in political terms because it would involve exiting this piece of spacetime and Brexit Party voters exiting their anger which they enjoy. The Brexit Party is going nowhere.
  • dixiedean said:

    Is there any change figure for that Best PM? 46-26 while bad, doesn't seem as bad for Jezza...

    Unfortunately not giving other options (Ms. Swinson, Mr. Farage most likely although one or more of the expelled would bring colour to it) gives a bit of a false sheen to both of their scores.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited September 2019
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Misleading, it was a poll across all 13 seats not individual seats and just used one headline voteshare
    How many seats do you think they'd hold on a average 30% voteshare?
    Uns would see Berwickshire as close as 2015, mundells seat within 1% and aberdeenshire within 3 or 4%, banff and Aberdeen south probably the bext two nearest but a good 8% shy

    It's a small sample size of 887, about 70 voters per constituency, haven't looked at how many weighted etc
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    38% of votes in Scotland in the EU ref went to Leave, despite a more or less non-existent Leave campaign there.

    The Brexit Party came second in Scotland in the recent EU elections, admittedly a distant second but still creditable.

    Scotland is hardly a Leaver-free zone, however much Sturgeon likes to portray it.
    I bet you're one of those people who think the 48% in the UK who voted remain should just shut up and go away.

    As it happens the only street stall I saw during the EU referendum was for Leave. It was about 200m from two of the most Rangers pubs in Glasgow, mind.
    Just pointing out some facts, facts which to some on here are uncomfortable because it doesn't feed into the weird narrative of Scotland being some distant, unicorn-grazing oasis away from the Brexit debate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    I think the Tories will gain and Labour lose from the Parliamentary shenanigans. I've put down in prior threads that I expect if this continues the Tories will be on or about 40% by the end of October [especially after Tory Conference] and will not be hurt by a Labour caused extension.

    Survation goes against this. We'll see what happens yet to come but I still stand by my original thoughts.

    Survation of course was the only pollster to underestimate the Tory lead at the last general election so if the Tories have a 5% lead with Survation they will likely lead more with other pollsters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
    We started IndyRef1 on 28% and ended up on 45%. We’re absolutely fine about starting IndyRef2 on 50%.
    49% not 50% and that excluding don't knows
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    TGOHF said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF said:
    Let me summarise that article: to be a true Conservative you must accept the following without question.
    Indeed. Anyone quoting Breitbart has lost the plot.
    You back on the Soubry juice ?
    If anti-Semitism, white nationalism, and outright fabrication is your flavour, Breitbart is should be your go-to "news" site. If not, well, people might get the wrong ideas about you when you repost its articles.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    Giving Brexit Party voters what they want only works if Brexit Party voters are transactional. But they aren't. They are rebelling against post-modernity, atomisation and late Capitalism. None of which are going anywhere. Brexit can never happen in political terms because it would involve exiting this piece of spacetime and Brexit Party voters exiting their anger which they enjoy. The Brexit Party is going nowhere.
    That some would be going nowhere was a given. But they had reduced in the polls and the not entire Boris strategy relies on them. He's obviously scared they won't forgive him for a delay, even though some on here think they would in a post October election, but if he's already struggling to hold them, the only thing keeping him in office is...Jeremy Corbyn not wanting to put him down yet.
  • HYUFD said:

    49% not 50%

    Peak HYUFD!
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
    We started IndyRef1 on 28% and ended up on 45%. We’re absolutely fine about starting IndyRef2 on 50%.
    49% not 50% and that excluding don't knows
    Oh, well it's a piece of cake then.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,079

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    Giving Brexit Party voters what they want only works if Brexit Party voters are transactional. But they aren't. They are rebelling against post-modernity, atomisation and late Capitalism. None of which are going anywhere. Brexit can never happen in political terms because it would involve exiting this piece of spacetime and Brexit Party voters exiting their anger which they enjoy. The Brexit Party is going nowhere.
    I agree. Even No Deal is not Brexity enough.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    HYUFD said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
    We started IndyRef1 on 28% and ended up on 45%. We’re absolutely fine about starting IndyRef2 on 50%.
    When’s it coming - 2031 ?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
    On a poll like that, it's too close to call, but FWIW I think Stuart is right. For good or for ill, Scotland's going.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    GIN1138 said:
    "Come on, let's go to a cafe"

    "Let's not right now"

    "You've been asking to go out for dinner for ages, let's go! "

    "Not until I've put out the fire you started in the kitchen!"
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited September 2019

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    38% of votes in Scotland in the EU ref went to Leave, despite a more or less non-existent Leave campaign there.

    The Brexit Party came second in Scotland in the recent EU elections, admittedly a distant second but still creditable.

    Scotland is hardly a Leaver-free zone, however much Sturgeon likes to portray it.
    I love how the 38% must be respected, but the 62%, and the 45%, must be crushed.
    A false dichotomy - have I said the 62% or the 45% (?) should be crushed? No. BuT I am arguing that it needs to be recognised that Leave did receive votes in Scotland, granted not as many a percentage as in England, but still 2 in 5 Scottish voters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
    On a poll like that, it's too close to call, but FWIW I think Stuart is right. For good or for ill, Scotland's going.
    No certainty about that at all, other than in the wishes of diehard Remainers who believe it is suitable punishment for English Leave voters
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    Not brilliant numbers for the PM, but Corbyn third in a two horse race for best PM. Oof.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Labour strategy is working.

    Keep Boris on the pot.

    Let him stew.

    On tonight's poll Boris stays PM but needs the predicted 15 Brexit Party seats for a majority, so Labour's strategy does not remove Boris, it just leads to an even more rightwing and hard Brexit government while losing a predicted 44 Labour seats in the process
    What seats are the Brexit Party going to win mate?
    Alyn and Deeside, Ashfield, Bolsover, Boston and Skegness, Carmathen West and Pembrokeshire South, Clwyd South, Delyn, Mansfield, Montgomeryshire, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Thurrock, Torfaen, Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham and Ynys Mon according to Electoral Calculus will all go Brexit Party based on tonight's Survation poll.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=29&LAB=24&LIB=18&Brexit=17&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
    Thanks. I don’t know enough about these seats to make any comments really. A lot of Welsh seats. @Big_G_NorthWales any comments?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Foxy said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Mrs Foxy mootng today a move to Scotland, for much those reasons. Will have to dust off my volume of Burns.
    Mrs Dickson banging on again about a move to London. Will have to dust off my flak jacket.
    Your guide may be outdated. The blitz isn't so much of a concern. Do make sure to pack trousers, and also underpants, and more than one pair.

    You may need temporary medication too as all your food may not be deep fried.

    Additionally you'll need to adapt to the idea that if there's a penny change then holding the entire establishment to account until they pay isn't the norm.

    Otherwise, and in fact more factually, I'm sure London would simply benefit from your and your good lady's presence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2019
    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    While encouraging Labour voters to switch to Swinson (up to a point) is exactly what Boris and Farage need to do
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    Some stuff on twittwr from a journo I now can't find about a BXP tory election pact close to being sealed... FWIW
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I think the country or should I say political anoraks like most of us in here are becoming addicted to the never ending Brexit drama .

    If this ever finishes what will we do !
This discussion has been closed.