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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the eve of the Lib Dem conference defection speculation goe
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the eve of the Lib Dem conference defection speculation goes in to overdrive
Hearing rumours of another defection from @UKLabour to Lib Dems. If true, surprise. Bad news for what it represents.
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(That said, not voting Tory seemed to be regarded as the most Tory thing one could do at the Euros)
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No.
The loss of the EU referendum is the greatest rupture in British peacetime history, certainly over the last century. And Cameron came in wanting to stop the Tories squabbling about Europe! Instead he horribly divided the whole country over Europe.
It is a catastrophic error, by any standards, and it really doesn't matter if he was boringly competent before. It's like saying "oh I was driving fine until I accelerated to 200 mph and ran over all the old ladies". Well, yeah, OK. but you ran over all the old ladies, and in the courtroom of history, that is all that matters.
Moreover, it's not like the referendum loss was some mad random event that came from nowhere. The mishandling of the renegotiations (telling the EU he would never campaign for Leave before he even started?!), the criminally casual way he called the plebiscite, without thinking through the possibility and consequences of defeat, etc etc, all these stem from flaws in Cameron's personality: the complacency, and arrogance, and misplaced self-regard.
He really is a twat.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1172551409511882752
“I think someone is being unveiled at their conference, but it’s not me.”
https://order-order.com/2019/09/13/heidi-allen-defect-lib-dems-tomorrow/
So what would a rebel Remainer Tory trying to suicide bomb Boris add to that mix ? Absolutely nothing from his left they'll just split the vote. The space for an extra candidate from the Brexit Betrayal right.
A senior Lib Dem MP suggested to me earlier this week that any defector this weekend could be ex-Labour.
Thanks.
I didn't miss it.
But I still think it's really unfair to wankers.
Remind me why we were all obsessed with "Colin's Mum". I have clean forgotten.
There still seem to be hugely contradictory versions of what's going on - remember the EU line is they will listen to any "serious" solutions to the problems caused by us leaving but that's not to see they will accept any old nonsense put forward.
NI remains an issue and again the EU's view is they will listen to any solutions we put forward but that's a way from saying they will accept anything and especially anything which they perceive as undermining the SM.
I genuinely don't know - pulling rabbits out of hats is good old music hall but how often does it work in reality? It seems a bit like the dance of the seven veils from Salome (hold the mind bleach) but I suspect we will all end up feeling overdressed.
Then defect to the LibDems during Tory conference.
I'm leaving for Bournemouth at 7:30am tomorrow morning for a weekend at the LibDem conference - and in particular to vote for "Revoke" in the policy motion in the manifesto.
What's driving you to for Revoke without another referendum?
Instead I just sat there, in my patterned summer dress, admiring him from afar. Oh well. Too late now.
And the more smoke and mirrors the WA is, the diehardier the ERG will be.
Are you suggesting that in 2036, assuming we were still in the EU, the Conservatives will be standing on a platform of implementing the 2016 referendum? Seriously?
A lot of growing up needs to be done among senior conservative politicians.
I do not think any MP would want that on the record, or their conscience. Even Corbyn would surely fold in those circumstances.
Are you feeling alright?
Edit: why would the EU refuse an extension when they are on the brink of reversing Brexit. Think what a victory that would be.
1. It will only happen in the unlikely event that the LibDems get an overall majority. But in that very unlikely event it will be a very strong mandate for Revoke that would supersede the referendum vote of 2016. If we don't get a majority we will back a second referendum to let the people decide between specific proposals.
2. People on all sides are sick and tired of this going on and on and sucking the oxygen out of political actions on health, education, social services etc. Let it end! Hence the large and surprising support for "No Deal" and the six million who signed the "Revoke" petition. The LibDems will provide a way of simply ending it.
But, I can see why the Lib Dems have gone for it in terms of partisan advantage: it offers clarity and firm purpose, which many crave,
Nonetheless it marks down the Libs as a fundamentally unserious party. willing to blow up our political system, and endanger civil peace, just because.
Johnson has been forced by the anti no deal legislation to confront reality . A deal even if it’s voted down means he will likely romp an election , if he gets a deal which passes then he still wins an election .
What he can’t have is an extension then an election . Another thing in his favour , the right wing press are desperate for him to end up the hero.
Although it might pain the EU to help deliver Johnson anything that could be seen as a victory I think they’re now really fed up .
Whilst they might welcome a general election with a chance of a change of government , what if it ends up another hung parliament or a Tory majority . As for another EU ref, unless Labour get a majority which is highly unlikely how on earth will that happen . The Lib Dems and other opposition would have to support Corbyn for months if it’s a minority government to allow the time for the second vote . I can’t see that happening .
Anyway we’ve been here before , lots of false dawns , so best to wait and see. As someone staunchly pro EU I’m not sure I’m willing to gamble on a complete rupture and terrible relations with the EU and a toxic atmosphere for years to come in the hope there might be a second vote .
An orderly exit with a deal I’m willing to support . I just hope MPs will think hard about what they’re going to do if a deal is reached .
Deal only ever looked like passing if no deal was indeed credible, Boris and others probably are right about that. But MPs and the EU have never believed we will no deal, and never will with this parliament.
Which parliament seems to know, given they are moving away from a GE toward a referendum apparently - they might think remain parties will win, but are fearful of the risk the Tories will instead and get a deal or no deal afterwards.
Hence why it will be settled in the next extension.
Revoke without a mandate would be a threat to democracy (unless it was a tactical revoke and re-invoke to overcome a refusal to extend A50).
It would be a nightmare. It would mean endless instability, argument, and angst, and it would menace the Project even more than Brexit.
For that reason, they might be minded to bend over, a bit, for Boris.
1. Convince everyone that No Deal is imminent.
2. Allow alarm and despondency to spread.
3. Throw out Remainers ruthlessly.
4. Then propose a deal, and threaten to turn on hard Leavers just as ruthlessly.
5. People thank Johnson brokenly for saving them from the terrors of No Deal.
5. He wins an election.
What I can't work out is what the deal would actually be that doesn't blatantly contradict stated Government policy. But perhaps that's not seen as a problem.
Not. Happening.
Revoke is a crazy idea, which could, probably would, bring plaster off the ceiling.
e.g. take me. I am a lifelong voter. If we simply Revoked, without even a 2nd ref, I would not vote again (unless to keep out Corbyn, but he won't be here forever)
Why bother? Really? Why bother voting if it literally means nothing, and "they" do what they want to, anyway? The entire system would be fatally devalued, democracy would be a proven sham. I would stop voting.
And if I feel that way, how would non-political people feel? Turn-outs would crash below 50% in General Elections. A total calamity for our country.
If he jumped to the SLDs, he might still manage to hold on in EdS. Used to be quite strong LD patches in that area, combined with strong personal vote, and he’d probably take all his SCon tactical votes with him (maybe even more).
They want good relations and co operation on a range of issues . The problem is the warring factions in the Commons need to wake up and realize that for the good of the country a deal needs to be reached and passed .
The EU at the moment are still worried that Johnson won’t be able to get a majority .
My remarks were meant to be amusing hyperbole, but they must have come across as boorish, or even nasty.
Soz boz.
Great. Thanks for everything, Davey.
Boris/Cummings may of course have a clever plan; but I am fairly convinced that come October 30th Boris would not crash out, even if a legal loophole allowed it. So a clever plan may not be enough. The clever plan has to get parliament to agree a deal. I think there is a good chance that Remainers will hold their nerve a little longer than Boris.
SNP 2/5 (from 1/2)
Con 7/3
LD 25/1
Lab 100/1
(Shadsy)
Labour at 100/1 !! They used to hold this seat until just 4 years ago.
Given he would have alienated his left and right flank. And solved Labour's biggest dilemma at a stroke.
Edit. I see kle4 made the same point to a different poster.
Bit late now, for his party and the country.
I've never felt able to jump into these kinds of markets, and I know from friends who campaign actively that it's often difficult even for local parties to know the state opinion in a constituency.
Con 1/5
Lab 6/1
LD 12/1
Bxp 20/1
Ind Tory not priced, yet
(Shadsy)
A. Initial prices: bookie’s own research plus intuition
B. All subsequent prices: supply and demand. Popular punts will shorten a price. Few backers will lengthen a price.
The Aberdeen South market was launched a couple of weeks ago, and has thus left phase A, so prices based on bets made from now on in.
I heard someone talking about Richard Leonard the other day. Someone with no connection to Scotland, I should add, city dweller.
"I'm really surprised he hasn't done better. The SNP were shitting themselves when he became leader, weren't they?"
It got me thinking about who in Labour the SNP might scared of. I didn't come up with any answers. Perhaps Corbyn a few years ago, but not now. Starmer, maybe?
So it certainly sounds like a market you get get ahead of the bookies on if you have a little local knowledge. But probably not for big money before they start to throttle your stakes, I guess.
The rest of your post is as impressive as your numeracy.
Lock 'em up!
Anyway, before I went veggie to help my wife stock up on good stuff before she has chemo, I used to love the taste of pork, so Dave's cock would be right up my street.