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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren maintains her strong betting favorite position for the Democratic nomination

With all the focus on the United Kingdom’s political crisis PB’s not covered the 2020 American presidential race for some time. At this stage, of course, this is all about who the Democratic party will choose to take on Donald Trump in November next year.

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IanB2

First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

dobbin

Second? Downtown Fairbanks Alaska

edmundintokyo

KLOBUCHAR clinches the crucial Bill Maher endorsement

Bill Maher said:

"I'm looking hard at Amy Klobuchar," Maher said. "You know why? Because -- this is not an insult to Amy Klobuchar -- I like you, but they put generic Democrat on the ballot, they win."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bill-maher-says-amy-klobuchar-would-be-solid-compromise-choice-for-dems-2020-nomination/ar-AAHh4pL

rcs1000

dobbin said:

Second? Downtown Fairbanks Alaska

I just looked up your IP, and you are actually in Alaska.

Enjoy.

rcs1000

edmundintokyo said:

KLOBUCHAR clinches the crucial Bill Maher endorsement

Bill Maher said:

"I'm looking hard at Amy Klobuchar," Maher said. "You know why? Because -- this is not an insult to Amy Klobuchar -- I like you, but they put generic Democrat on the ballot, they win."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bill-maher-says-amy-klobuchar-would-be-solid-compromise-choice-for-dems-2020-nomination/ar-AAHh4pL

My bet: the Dems choose Warren, but she only gets one term as she's simply too divisive a figure.

rcs1000

IanB2 said:

First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

We get all sorts on pb.

Sandpit

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

We get all sorts on pb.

How many time zones can we have PBers in at once? Nearly 8am in Dubai.

AndyJS

How is Sioux pronounced?

AndyJS

"The Guardian apologises for David Cameron editorial"

(£)

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/the-guardian-apologises-david-cameron-editorial/

Nigelb

AndyJS said:

How is Sioux pronounced?

Like the boy’s name.

DecrepitJohnL

Last week, Ladbrokes cut Hillary Clinton into 20/1 so someone must be backing her. Someone with a crystal ball or who has just woken from a four year coma?

CarlottaVance

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

We get all sorts on pb.

Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)

CarlottaVance

rcs1000 said:

edmundintokyo said:

KLOBUCHAR clinches the crucial Bill Maher endorsement

Bill Maher said:

"I'm looking hard at Amy Klobuchar," Maher said. "You know why? Because -- this is not an insult to Amy Klobuchar -- I like you, but they put generic Democrat on the ballot, they win."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bill-maher-says-amy-klobuchar-would-be-solid-compromise-choice-for-dems-2020-nomination/ar-AAHh4pL

My bet: the Dems choose Warren, but she only gets one term as she's simply too divisive a figure.

And she’d also be the oldest elected to a second term, comfortably beating Reagan.

Nigelb

All is not exactly well in the Sanders campaign, as he replaces his New Hampshire state director:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/15/bernie-sanders-campaign-new-hampshire-1497448
The shake-up comes as some progressive voters in New Hampshire weigh Sen. Elizabeth Warren as a better option to beat President Donald Trump. At a Democratic convention here just over a week ago, a noticeable number of state delegates who voted for Sanders in 2016 said they had moved their support to Warren. Even members of the Sanders steering committee — his most diehard supporters — said they were eyeing Warren....

DecrepitJohnL

Nigelb said:

All is not exactly well in the Sanders campaign, as he replaces his New Hampshire state director:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/15/bernie-sanders-campaign-new-hampshire-1497448
The shake-up comes as some progressive voters in New Hampshire weigh Sen. Elizabeth Warren as a better option to beat President Donald Trump. At a Democratic convention here just over a week ago, a noticeable number of state delegates who voted for Sanders in 2016 said they had moved their support to Warren. Even members of the Sanders steering committee — his most diehard supporters — said they were eyeing Warren....

Sanders was the protest vote against Hillary Clinton last time, who never really turned her fire on him because she'd already got the nomination sewn up (or stitched up, if you prefer). That represents the ceiling of his support.

CarlottaVance

Background on the Saudi/Yemen/Iran conflict:

https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1173406486082609152?s=20

rcs1000

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

We get all sorts on pb.

Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)

Indonesia

DecrepitJohnL

Speaking of the Middle East, keep an eye on rising oil prices which in the past have been bad for government polling, though this time round might provide political cover for Brexit-related disruption. If continued, it might also improve the economic outlook for Russia and Scotland.

Casino_Royale

I'm a tad shorter on Warren than perhaps I could be at the moment, as I think her odds are too tight and she's a clear lay.

Otherwise, I'm nicely positive on all except Yang, Clinton, Sanders and Harris.

Casino_Royale

AndyJS said:

How is Sioux pronounced?

Isn't it like "Sue" ?

Casino_Royale

edmundintokyo said:

KLOBUCHAR clinches the crucial Bill Maher endorsement

Bill Maher said:

"I'm looking hard at Amy Klobuchar," Maher said. "You know why? Because -- this is not an insult to Amy Klobuchar -- I like you, but they put generic Democrat on the ballot, they win."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bill-maher-says-amy-klobuchar-would-be-solid-compromise-choice-for-dems-2020-nomination/ar-AAHh4pL

You really have a thing for Amy.

edmundintokyo

Casino_Royale said:

You really have a thing for Amy.

Democratic primary voters not so much, sadly

StuartDickson

DecrepitJohnL said:

Speaking of the Middle East, keep an eye on rising oil prices which in the past have been bad for government polling, though this time round might provide political cover for Brexit-related disruption. If continued, it might also improve the economic outlook for Russia and Scotland.

I’m sure Brit Nats will come up with some jolly wheeze to explain why a booming oil sector spells disaster for Scotland.

rcs1000

Casino_Royale said:

I'm a tad shorter on Warren than perhaps I could be at the moment, as I think her odds are too tight and she's a clear lay.

Otherwise, I'm nicely positive on all except Yang, Clinton, Sanders and Harris.

I wouldn't lose sleep on those. Harris the only one with any real chance of getting the nomination, but that requires her to hang on until (and then win) California. Which doesn't seem very likely.

CarlottaVance

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

We get all sorts on pb.

Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)

Indonesia

A little less specific than Sioux Falls!

Roger

OT. More clever positioning from Jo Swinson. She will not prop up a Labour Government while JEREMY CORBYN is leader. A nice new home for Labour voters who don't like Corbyn. (Surely most of them)

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'm a tad shorter on Warren than perhaps I could be at the moment, as I think her odds are too tight and she's a clear lay.

Otherwise, I'm nicely positive on all except Yang, Clinton, Sanders and Harris.

I wouldn't lose sleep on those. Harris the only one with any real chance of getting the nomination, but that requires her to hang on until (and then win) California. Which doesn't seem very likely.

Thanks. Let’s hope so.

rcs1000

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

We get all sorts on pb.

Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)

Indonesia

A little less specific than Sioux Falls!

Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

Better?

edmundintokyo

OT UK PM to EU: Make a deal with me, you can totally trust me to honour it, I know I don't even follow my own country's laws but a deal with you, definitely legit

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1173380211401994242

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. JohnL, seems bizarre Clinton's down to 21.

I'll be ahead if Warren, Harris, or Biden wins. Might have (and forgotten about) a few dollars on very long shot others, but those are the main three.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1173371919678283777?s=20

CarlottaVance

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

We get all sorts on pb.

Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)

Indonesia

A little less specific than Sioux Falls!

Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

Better?

About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?

DavidL

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1173371919678283777?s=20

Am I supposed to have heard of this person?

ThomasNashe

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

We get all sorts on pb.

Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)

Indonesia

A little less specific than Sioux Falls!

Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

Better?

About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?

Hartlepool, of course.

CarlottaVance

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1173371919678283777?s=20

Am I supposed to have heard of this person?

She’s been quoted on here a couple of times as the Uber-woke right-on millennial- but I suspect Twitter have finally twigged that it’s a parody....

DavidL

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

edmundintokyo

CarlottaVance said:

About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?

Gonna come clean, I haven't been in Tokyo for a few years, currently fixing up a house in a town called Mashiko, about 100km north.

https://twitter.com/edmundedgar/status/1092674541980024832?s=19

logical_song

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

No, Dems by more than 3 million votes next time.

Roger

AndyJS said:

"The Guardian apologises for David Cameron editorial"

(£)

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/the-guardian-apologises-david-cameron-editorial/

Pretty disgraceful but these things happen. A couple of people asleep on the job I guess

Nigelb

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?

Roger

edmundintokyo said:

CarlottaVance said:

About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?

Gonna come clean, I haven't been in Tokyo for a few years, currently fixing up a house in a town called Mashiko, about 100km north.

https://twitter.com/edmundedgar/status/1092674541980024832?s=19

Good luck!!

DavidL

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?

Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.

rcs1000

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

If he does keep the plates in the air, then 2020 will be the election the Republicans wish they'd never won.

The more you unbalance the economy, the worse the inevitable hangover.

AlastairMeeks

I’m in Budapest of course today.

OldKingCole

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

No, Dems by more than 3 million votes next time.

A surplus of Dem votes don't matter, though if enough Rep ones are in the 'right' places for The Donald. After all, 90% Dem in California and New York are only equal to 51% Rep in Alaska and Utah!

rcs1000

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?

Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.

I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.

Gardenwalker

Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

Morris_Dancer

Alas, Titania follows Godfrey Elfwick[sp] into the ethereal plane.

not_on_fire

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1173371919678283777?s=20

It’s a (well done) parody account. Hopefully Carlotta knew

DecrepitJohnL

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

If he does keep the plates in the air, then 2020 will be the election the Republicans wish they'd never won.

The more you unbalance the economy, the worse the inevitable hangover.

So what? The Democrats will sort it out and then the merry-go-round of tax cuts for billionaires and appointing right-wing judges to keep guns safe for unborn babies can start again.

CarlottaVance

not_on_fire said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1173371919678283777?s=20

It’s a (well done) parody account. Hopefully Carlotta knew

It appears Twitter may not have....

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Walker, I'm still here. And so are the enormo-haddock.

DavidL

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?

Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.

I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.

I think Minnesota is another possibility and just possibly Nevada.

DavidL

Gardenwalker said:

Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

Still here. And not planning on going further than Edinburgh today.

not_on_fire

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?

Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.

Which Clinton states is he going to flip? Justify your answer using the 2018 midterms results

ydoethur

Gardenwalker said:

Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

I'm still in Cannock, or at least I'm fairly sure I am. Grey and miserable this morning.

DecrepitJohnL

DavidL said:

Gardenwalker said:

Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

Still here. And not planning on going further than Edinburgh today.

Otoh there is a fair chunk of pb dedicated to removing Edinburgh from the UK.

nico67

edmundintokyo said:

OT UK PM to EU: Make a deal with me, you can totally trust me to honour it, I know I don't even follow my own country's laws but a deal with you, definitely legit

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1173380211401994242

The EU should say sorry we need a trustworthy partner , we don’t do deals with law breakers ! Bozo is becoming unhinged .

Nigelb

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?

Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.

That’s what makes a betting market.

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

Gardenwalker said:

Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

I'm still in Cannock, or at least I'm fairly sure I am. Grey and miserable this morning.

I think some idiot turned out the lights...

ydoethur

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?

Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.

I can see him grabbing Virginia.

Are we talking about the state or are you witnessing an assault on a young lady?

rcs1000

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?

Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.

I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.

I think Minnesota is another possibility and just possibly Nevada.

Trump is something like -25 Approval Rating in Minnesota, and he did dismally in the midterms there.

Nevada is a possible, but is long term trending Blue.

DavidL

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

If he does keep the plates in the air, then 2020 will be the election the Republicans wish they'd never won.

The more you unbalance the economy, the worse the inevitable hangover.

Oh I agree. Trump's economic policies are incredibly short term and are aggravating existing distortions and weaknesses. What the US really needs is a sensible Democrat like Bill Clinton who is willing to address the crazy deficit and do some long term planning on various Federal budget programs. I can't see any republican doing it. They are the party of fiscal irresponsibility in the US.

Roger

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

We get all sorts on pb.

Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)

Indonesia

A little less specific than Sioux Falls!

Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

Better?

About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?

Roger is in Didsbury for the next seven days where there is more chance of meeting a Yeti than a Leaver then South of France then Venice for the Biennale.

ydoethur

DecrepitJohnL said:

DavidL said:

Gardenwalker said:

Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

Still here. And not planning on going further than Edinburgh today.

Otoh there is a fair chunk of pb dedicated to removing Edinburgh from the UK.

Indeed.

If they teamed up with the SNP posters think what a force they would be!

not_on_fire

Still in the UK for now but have just booked one last holiday to Italy as an EU citizen, returning 30th October. Need to use that membership one last time, especially as the museums give you a discount if you have an EU passport.

Nigelb

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

If he does keep the plates in the air, then 2020 will be the election the Republicans wish they'd never won.

The more you unbalance the economy, the worse the inevitable hangover.

I’m more concerned about the planet. Another five years before starting to address climate change is more than dangerous.

TheKitchenCabinet

Roger said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

We get all sorts on pb.

Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)

Indonesia

A little less specific than Sioux Falls!

Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

Better?

About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?

Roger is in Didsbury for the next seven days where there is more chance of meeting a Yeti than a Leaver then South of France then Venice for the Biennale.

Be careful Roger, there are one or two leavers in Didsbury, mainly around the Wetherspoon's

Roger

A good line on R5. 'Michael Gove says he's had enough of excerpts'

not_on_fire

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?

Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.

I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.

Really? Virginia has been blue since 2008 and is trending away from the GOP in the past few elections when you account for the national picture, and the Republicans did poorly in the midterms there in 2017. Fairfax county is full of federal workers and it continues to grow.

Worth seeing what happens there in November when VA has its state midterms.

My personal opinion is that the 2020 election will be won and lost in Pennsylvania. I don’t see Trump holding WI.

Roger

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Roger said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

We get all sorts on pb.

Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)

Indonesia

A little less specific than Sioux Falls!

Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

Better?

About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?

Roger is in Didsbury for the next seven days where there is more chance of meeting a Yeti than a Leaver then South of France then Venice for the Biennale.

Be careful Roger, there are one or two leavers in Didsbury, mainly around the Wetherspoon's

Is there a Wetherspoon's in Didsbury? I don't think so....I know you cant move for them in Hartlepool

isam

AndyJS said:

"The Guardian apologises for David Cameron editorial"

(£)

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/the-guardian-apologises-david-cameron-editorial/

My word.

If ever there were something to reaffirm my confirmation bias, that’d be it. His son dying is ‘privileged pain’.

Absolutely typical quite-rich-and-privileged-themselves Guardian think. What an embarrassment they are.

CarlottaVance

edmundintokyo said:

CarlottaVance said:

About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?

Gonna come clean, I haven't been in Tokyo for a few years, currently fixing up a house in a town called Mashiko, about 100km north.

https://twitter.com/edmundedgar/status/1092674541980024832?s=19

What’s Japanese for “fixer upper”? That said I once had a Japanese colleague who was doing up his house in Japan and I commiserated with him asking how far over budget and behind schedule it was. He replied, “this is Japan, it is on time and on budget - do they do things differently in the U.K.?

There’s a great old Cary Grant movie “Mr Blandings Builds his Dream House” - I gave a copy to my architect who has shown it to all subsequent clients!

DavidL

DecrepitJohnL said:

DavidL said:

Gardenwalker said:

Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

Still here. And not planning on going further than Edinburgh today.

Otoh there is a fair chunk of pb dedicated to removing Edinburgh from the UK.

And a fair few of us committed to making sure that never happens.

TheKitchenCabinet

Roger said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Roger said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

We get all sorts on pb.

Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)

Indonesia

A little less specific than Sioux Falls!

Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

Better?

About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?

Roger is in Didsbury for the next seven days where there is more chance of meeting a Yeti than a Leaver then South of France then Venice for the Biennale.

Be careful Roger, there are one or two leavers in Didsbury, mainly around the Wetherspoon's

Is there a Weatherspoon's in Didsbury? I don't think so....I know you cant move for them in Hartlepool

Actually, there isn't but maybe avoid The Nelson

nichomar

Gardenwalker said:

Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

Well I’m only a 2/12 hour flight away

isam

https://twitter.com/zacgoldsmith/status/1173343968718917634?s=21

Roger

ISAM. It is heartless but your insistence on quoting it in full twice unlike Andy who just posted a link makes you no better than the Guardian

isam

Roger said:

ISAM. It is heartless but your insistence on quoting it in full twice unlike Andy who just posted a link makes you no better than the Guardian

You are a complete idiot

Andy’s post was a link behind a paywall that many may not have seen. I want everyone to see it.

In all honesty, how can you possibly think that me highlighting a newspapers disgusting behaviour is as bad as their disgusting behaviour? By that logic, anyone who references The Sun’s Hillsborough coverage is as bad as them. Behave yourself

Nigelb

isam said:

https://twitter.com/zacgoldsmith/status/1173343968718917634?s=21

Pretty unpleasant, but it's clearly not their corporate view, as it was rapidly pulled.

Peter_the_Punter

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

We get all sorts on pb.

Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)

Indonesia

A little less specific than Sioux Falls!

Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

Better?

About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?

And is Byronic posting from the same place as SeanT once did?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Isam, aye, saw that a short time. Particularly abysmal.

isam

Nigelb said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/zacgoldsmith/status/1173343968718917634?s=21

Pretty unpleasant, but it's clearly not their corporate view, as it was rapidly pulled.

Rapidly pulling it doesn’t mean it’s not their corporate view at all. If it were a politician speaking, we’d say that revealed their real view before they tried to cover up

148grss

isam said:

https://twitter.com/zacgoldsmith/status/1173343968718917634?s=21

Are we saying it is controversial that the suffering of a rich guy with all the privileges of power is not necessarily the same as the suffering of poor people, and that it is not okay to point out that this rich guy increased the suffering of poor people, despite suffering himself? Is that really a controversy?

Casino_Royale

isam said:

AndyJS said:

"The Guardian apologises for David Cameron editorial"

(£)

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/the-guardian-apologises-david-cameron-editorial/

My word.

If ever there were something to reaffirm my confirmation bias, that’d be it. His son dying is ‘privileged pain’.

Absolutely typical quite-rich-and-privileged-themselves Guardian think. What an embarrassment they are.

It speaks absolute volumes about the Guardian that an editorial as disgusting as that ever got as far as it did.

As you say, I bet a number of their key staff have very good private health insurance that they make good use of themselves.

Alistair

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?

Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.

He's losing ground in the mid West rust belt and getting slaughtered in the suburbs. The Dem candidate can be five points less popular than Obama in the Rust Belt and still comfortably beat Trump in the EC.

My girl "The Big Shiz Liz" keeps gaining in popularity the more people see her. Low info voters don't like her, high info voters do.

Alistair

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?

Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.

I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.

I think Minnesota is another possibility and just possibly Nevada.

Trump is something like -25 Approval Rating in Minnesota, and he did dismally in the midterms there.

Nevada is a possible, but is long term trending Blue.

After a wobble from the Reid machine stopping I think Nevada once again looks mostly safe for the Dems.

Alistair

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1173371919678283777?s=20

Am I supposed to have heard of this person?

An Andrew Doyle creation even less funny that Jonathan Pie. Which is an incredible achievement IMHO.

Peter_the_Punter

DavidL said:

Gardenwalker said:

Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

Still here. And not planning on going further than Edinburgh today.

And I'm still here in the Cotswolds, but planning a trip to Hampstead today.

That reminds me. Must take my passport.

Nigelb

148grss said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/zacgoldsmith/status/1173343968718917634?s=21

Are we saying it is controversial that the suffering of a rich guy with all the privileges of power is not necessarily the same as the suffering of poor people, and that it is not okay to point out that this rich guy increased the suffering of poor people, despite suffering himself? Is that really a controversy?

Perhaps, but that thought was exceedingly ill expressed by the editorial.

I don't think there are gradations in the suffering experienced by a parent who loses a child, no matter how rich or poor. The experience of trying to arrange treatment for that child is likely to be considerably different, though.

Far more starkly, set against all that the experience of a son or daughter trying to arrange care for a parent with dementia. For the rich and the not rich, that is two wholly different worlds.

Nigelb

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?

Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.

He's losing ground in the mid West rust belt and getting slaughtered in the suburbs. The Dem candidate can be five points less popular than Obama in the Rust Belt and still comfortably beat Trump in the EC.

My girl "The Big Shiz Liz" keeps gaining in popularity the more people see her. Low info voters don't like her, high info voters do.

The former greatly outnumber the latter, though.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. grss, I am unpersuaded that a larger bank account or better career dulls the edge of a child's death. Do you think money makes up for a dead son or daughter?

If not, I'd be intrigued to hear how you think Cameron's pain was any less than that of any other father in his situation.

148grss

not_on_fire said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?

Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.

I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.

Really? Virginia has been blue since 2008 and is trending away from the GOP in the past few elections when you account for the national picture, and the Republicans did poorly in the midterms there in 2017. Fairfax county is full of federal workers and it continues to grow.

Worth seeing what happens there in November when VA has its state midterms.

My personal opinion is that the 2020 election will be won and lost in Pennsylvania. I don’t see Trump holding WI.

I think people underestimate the degree that Clinton lost a) because turnout amongst Dem electorate was down, which won't happen again, b) because Trump was viewed as a moderate Republican, which he isn't anymore, c) Clinton was especially disliked by the electorate, which no one else on the Dem side even comes close to.

I think Warren will end up being the compromise pick for those who don't want Biden and don't want Bernie OR that as things get to the final three, it will be Biden v Warren v Bernie and the Biden may get the plurality of delegates. Warren and Bernie will make a deal so one of them (most likely Warren in my view) will be the nominee but with a compromise platform and a compromise Veep.

OldKingCole

It's cricket watching day at Chelmsford. Think I can safely leave the suntan cream at home!

Excellent NHS experience yesterday; Audiology appointment within 10 days of referral and I now have hearing aids. The young radio audiologist was very pleasant and efficient, and it's surprising what I'm discovering I've been missing!
And, yes, the appointment was on a Sunday.

isam

148grss said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/zacgoldsmith/status/1173343968718917634?s=21

Are we saying it is controversial that the suffering of a rich guy with all the privileges of power is not necessarily the same as the suffering of poor people, and that it is not okay to point out that this rich guy increased the suffering of poor people, despite suffering himself? Is that really a controversy?

I wouldn’t credit them with ‘controversial’. It’s what most normal people would think of as a parody of how a certain kind of affluent middle class, pretentious, clueless professional victim would think.

Theuniondivvie

Dominic Raab wants a 'best in class free trade agreement'.

He's like a dumbed down David Brent that works out.

Roger

isam said:

Roger said:

ISAM. It is heartless but your insistence on quoting it in full twice unlike Andy who just posted a link makes you no better than the Guardian

You are a complete idiot

Andy’s post was a link behind a paywall that many may not have seen. I want everyone to see it.

In all honesty, how can you possibly think that me highlighting a newspapers disgusting behaviour is as bad as their disgusting behaviour? By that logic, anyone who references The Sun’s Hillsborough coverage is as bad as them. Behave yourself

If I had to choose between an Enoch Powell admirer and someone who wrote a single tasteless editorial about privilege I know who I'd find more offensive

Alistair

148grss said:

not_on_fire said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?

Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.

I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.

Really? Virginia has been blue since 2008 and is trending away from the GOP in the past few elections when you account for the national picture, and the Republicans did poorly in the midterms there in 2017. Fairfax county is full of federal workers and it continues to grow.

Worth seeing what happens there in November when VA has its state midterms.

My personal opinion is that the 2020 election will be won and lost in Pennsylvania. I don’t see Trump holding WI.

I think people underestimate the degree that Clinton lost a) because turnout amongst Dem electorate was down, which won't happen again, b) because Trump was viewed as a moderate Republican, which he isn't anymore, c) Clinton was especially disliked by the electorate, which no one else on the Dem side even comes close to.

I think Warren will end up being the compromise pick for those who don't want Biden and don't want Bernie OR that as things get to the final three, it will be Biden v Warren v Bernie and the Biden may get the plurality of delegates. Warren and Bernie will make a deal so one of them (most likely Warren in my view) will be the nominee but with a compromise platform and a compromise Veep.

As I keep banging on an on Trump got almost exactly the same vote share as Romany in the Rust Belt but Clinton lost up to 10 percentage points. Trump even got less absolute votes than Romney in Wisconsin.

For me the only thing stopping me saying Trump is losing the rustbelt guaranteed mortal lock bet the house on it is what the spineless jellyfish called NeverTrumps do this time out. NeverTrumps love all the judicial nominations Trump has done, they may well fall in behind this time out.

kle4

isam said:

AndyJS said:

"The Guardian apologises for David Cameron editorial"

(£)

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/the-guardian-apologises-david-cameron-editorial/

My word.

If ever there were something to reaffirm my confirmation bias, that’d be it. His son dying is ‘privileged pain’.

Absolutely typical quite-rich-and-privileged-themselves Guardian think. What an embarrassment they are.

And you cannot accidentally write this stuff, so the apology is phony as hell - they put in precisely what they intended and meant and the paper saw what was in it. If the point was that rich people experience things differently than poor people why is it necessary to do so by focusing on his dead child?

It's a case where defenders are undercut, since the paper knows it was unnecessary that's why they've apologised, so people saying it's a fair point have nowhere to go.

Roger

Swinson seems to be gettinga lot of support on radio 5. Poor on radio 4 though.