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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the General Election betting a CON majority drops from a 40

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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162
    @Nigelb

    I am pretty sure that if Labour get the chance to implement their policy the Deal they end up with will in essence be Norway plus. The unicorn element will not survive the talks.
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    They're going to make this international union then the people of Clacton are going to find out about all the Chinese Australians and they're going to have a referendum and leave
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,849

    Lol, in a long list of pishy dog-ate-homework excuses, No.10 giving a flying one about the SNP conference is far and away the most pishy!

    https://twitter.com/MarkerJParker/status/1173974056154144771?s=20

    They could be jailed for perjury on that alone, most mind boggling Tory lie to date.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,098
    That mouth full of piano keyboard is a gift to cartoonists.....
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    edited September 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Why is it so tough to find the actual Israeli election results as they currently are rather than 100s of opinion pieces and hot takes ?

    Try https:votes22.bechirot.gov.il

    Remember it is D'Hondt with a 3.25% cut off.
    I've created a spreadsheet that does the calculation.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited September 2019
    cancelled
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,849
    He makes Scott sound like a genius, is that the best the unionists can do , the mutterings of a failed dogfood salesman.
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    malcolmg said:

    Lol, in a long list of pishy dog-ate-homework excuses, No.10 giving a flying one about the SNP conference is far and away the most pishy!

    https://twitter.com/MarkerJParker/status/1173974056154144771?s=20

    They could be jailed for perjury on that alone, most mind boggling Tory lie to date.
    It was actually written by a Civil Servant and Constitutional Law Expert. But truly, no good deed goes unpunished.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162
    Corbyn may well be a Leaver at heart but I cannot see much relevance in this given that he will stay neutral in any Ref2 and most of the party will be campaigning for Remain.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,849

    malcolmg said:

    Lol, in a long list of pishy dog-ate-homework excuses, No.10 giving a flying one about the SNP conference is far and away the most pishy!

    https://twitter.com/MarkerJParker/status/1173974056154144771?s=20

    They could be jailed for perjury on that alone, most mind boggling Tory lie to date.
    It was actually written by a Civil Servant and Constitutional Law Expert. But truly, no good deed goes unpunished.
    A tame Tory patsy in other words
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891


    Yes but at least he is giving people a choice in a referendum remain v a deal.
    Unlike straight revoke which would be undemocratic.
    Also Swinson would never accept the same for the SNP if they won a Scottish election with a majority then declared Independence.
    She is a hypocrite of the first order.


    What is he proposing? taking us back to square one Remain v Leave?. There is no deal. If he is just offering a confirmatory referendum when and if a deal is reached by Johnson then Parliament will have accepted the deal. It'll be a fait accompi and Johnson and chums will be here to stay. I suspect you are a Labour Leaver. A difficult place to be.

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    malcolmg said:

    He makes Scott sound like a genius, is that the best the unionists can do , the mutterings of a failed dogfood salesman.
    Why do Nats hate business?

    I see Scotland’s GDP growth has lagged rUK again. Brexit uncertainty is a widely cited factor.

    Any additional uncertainty factor in Scotland to account for the slower growth?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    From the live summaries looks like the government lawyer is facing tough questions. Right on the law or not the 'it's not for you to question' argument will be unpopular outside the court at least.
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,887
    Nigelb said:
    Lol. and all the other expresidents still alive are ineligible to run again.
    I've just had a terrible thought, maybe Trump will win the 2024 presidential election!
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    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nothing like a bit of class war on a wednesday...

    https://twitter.com/AbolishEton/status/1174218833248305153

    As a Hard Left Social Democrat this is exactly the sort of policy I want from Labour.

    It's what I go to school for. Not a private one obviously.
    "John McDonnell said he supported a motion put forward by the campaign group Labour Against Private Schools calling for independent schools in England to be stripped of their charitable status, to have limits placed on their pupils’ entry to universities, and for their assets to be used by the state education sector."

    So not abolishing them?

    Stripped of charitable status - I would agree with that and you dont need to be hard left to do so, private schools are hardly charities in the sense most people understand the word

    Limits placed on their pupils entry to university - Would prefer govt funding for universities to be tied to fairer access between state and private schools, think thats a better solution but agree there is a problem

    Assets to be used by the state education sector - I dont understand what they mean in practice here - if they are taking all the assets the first two points above become completely irrelevant! I very much doubt I would agree with whatever the actual intent of that point is. This is where momentum really lose the part of the country that could support a left of centre govt, when they talk of just taking other peoples assets rather than finding ways to help redistribution over time.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,910
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why is it so tough to find the actual Israeli election results as they currently are rather than 100s of opinion pieces and hot takes ?

    Try https:votes22.bechirot.gov.il

    Remember it is D'Hondt with a 3.25% cut off.
    I've created a spreadsheet that does the calculation.
    https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=iw&tl=en&u=https://votes22.bechirot.gov.il/ works well
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    malcolmg said:

    He makes Scott sound like a genius, is that the best the unionists can do , the mutterings of a failed dogfood salesman.
    Why do Nats hate business?

    Boris: "F*ck Business!"
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162
    TOPPING said:

    What about a bit of property distribution, from NW3 to NE3, say?

    I do favour that as you well know.

    It's time to look after neglected people in neglected places.

    If we don't do this they do crazy things like voting to leave the European Union.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,098
    malcolmg said:


    Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?

    I guess it would only require a minor adjustment of mindset to move from 'don't leave us, whinging, benefit junky, Jock bastards' to 'come and join us, cheating, convict, Aussie tossers'. A little UKOK charm goes a long way.
    No sane person would want to be associated with them TUD, hence everyone but Trump running for shelter when the morons come peddling their FTA's. I lie, the Faroes Islands caved in.
    malcomg peddling lies again. Who'd have thunk.....

    Deals so far:

    South Korea

    Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama have signed the UK-Central America Association Agreement.

    Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have signed the UK-Andean Countries Trade Agreement

    Norway

    Iceland

    Barbados, Belize, The Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, The Republic of Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have signed the CARIFORUM-UK Economic Partnership Agreement

    Fiji and Papua New Guinea

    Lichtenstein

    Isreal

    The Palestinian Authority

    Switzerland

    Chile

    Madagascar

    Mauritius

    Seychelles

    Zimbabwe

    Oh, and the Faroe Islands.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,538

    They're going to make this international union then the people of Clacton are going to find out about all the Chinese Australians and they're going to have a referendum and leave
    People from Clacton are probably more likely to desire to move to Australia than vice versa.
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    kle4 said:

    From the live summaries looks like the government lawyer is facing tough questions. Right on the law or not the 'it's not for you to question' argument will be unpopular outside the court at least.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1174273241147432960?s=20
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Danny565 said:

    <

    Kill Brexit Without a Referendum is a masterstroke.


    There were those on here who chided the LibDems over Bollox to Brexit, but it turned out to be a brilliant PR coup.

    A lot of people would like clarity on Brexit. Referendums aren't particularly democratic because a) they present untested choices which in this case was simplistic, binary and pre-emptive and b) there's little or no recourse so if people change their minds with changing circumstances, they're stuffed.

    I hope it's the last time a referendum is ever held in England and Wales.

    General Elections are the proper form of expressing democracy, however imperfect. It's really very simple. If you don't want to cancel Brexit don't vote LibDem. If they win, you know very clearly what will happen on Day 1.

    Kudos.

    It's a niche vote strategy and it may well help push up their share from middle-class Tory voters like Nigel - it's certainly attracted attention, which is half the battle. But she's also deterring some Labour tactical voters - anecdotally I know three dfferent Labour voters who were considering voting LibDem as they did in the locals and Euros who now don't intend to, because they feel Swinson is too anti-Labour as well as too undemocratic on Brexit - and this is Surrey, the sort of area where the LibDems really need tactical support.
    I don't think much of the LibDems or their "revoke without referendum" nonsense, but personally I would tactically vote for them if I was in a Con/LD marginal. Then again, I was in the minority of Labour supporters who probably would've done that in 2017, too (don't think I could've stomached it in 2015 with Clegg still at the helm).

    Increasingly though, I think there's no way of Labour doing well in an election before Brexit is 'resolved', no matter what their stance is.
    They have one enormous USP which is that they're not Johnson's Tories. My guess is they'd do better before Brexit is settled than after.
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    On the Labour position of 'negotiate a shining new non-Tory jobs-first deal and then have most of the party campaign against it in a referendum' is, as others have said, rather curious. It certainly doesn't win any prizes for clarity.

    There's also another problem with it. Why on earth would the EU waste time and political capital negotiating a new deal with a government which isn't committed to implementing it?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717

    kle4 said:

    From the live summaries looks like the government lawyer is facing tough questions. Right on the law or not the 'it's not for you to question' argument will be unpopular outside the court at least.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1174273241147432960?s=20
    That's why I said outside the court- inside the court they might accept the argument as true regardless.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Roger said:



    Yes but at least he is giving people a choice in a referendum remain v a deal.
    Unlike straight revoke which would be undemocratic.
    Also Swinson would never accept the same for the SNP if they won a Scottish election with a majority then declared Independence.
    She is a hypocrite of the first order.


    What is he proposing? taking us back to square one Remain v Leave?. There is no deal. If he is just offering a confirmatory referendum when and if a deal is reached by Johnson then Parliament will have accepted the deal. It'll be a fait accompi and Johnson and chums will be here to stay. I suspect you are a Labour Leaver. A difficult place to be.



    I voted remain Roger.
    However I do not think if would be democratic to revoke.
    So I would support a referendum, deal v remain.
    If I was an MP , I would have voted for Mays deal.
    Where I live the seat is York Outer a safe Conservative seat, so my Lib Dem or Labour vote is just wasted anyways.
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    malcolmg said:


    Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?

    I guess it would only require a minor adjustment of mindset to move from 'don't leave us, whinging, benefit junky, Jock bastards' to 'come and join us, cheating, convict, Aussie tossers'. A little UKOK charm goes a long way.
    No sane person would want to be associated with them TUD, hence everyone but Trump running for shelter when the morons come peddling their FTA's. I lie, the Faroes Islands caved in.
    malcomg peddling lies again. Who'd have thunk.....

    Deals so far:

    South Korea

    Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama have signed the UK-Central America Association Agreement.

    Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have signed the UK-Andean Countries Trade Agreement

    Norway

    Iceland

    Barbados, Belize, The Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, The Republic of Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have signed the CARIFORUM-UK Economic Partnership Agreement

    Fiji and Papua New Guinea

    Lichtenstein

    Isreal

    The Palestinian Authority

    Switzerland

    Chile

    Madagascar

    Mauritius

    Seychelles

    Zimbabwe

    Oh, and the Faroe Islands.
    That list must cover a very small percentage of UK trade surely? Only Korea and Switzerland are outside the margin of error on trade volumes?
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    I have a feeling many desperate for a free movement agreement / economy with Aus will find its rather one sided and they won’t be so keen.

    The Australians have worked very hard to ensure a mixture of skills into their country.

    Opening up to unskilled? labour and randoms from the uk will not go down well with many there - unlike the uk it’s still quite a high wage country, quite protectionist and regulated and the unions are incredibly strong relative to the uk.

    The economy and the mindset are quite different.

    I also think many Brits idea of what Australia is, is about 25 years out of date. The place as previous posters have said, has become increasingly Asian (partic Chinese and also India who both send loads more immigrants than Britain does and have done for years and have created a lot of wealth there. It’s influenced in both population mix and power and outlook.

    Economic bonds to Europe and the uk are also virtually non existent, despite the wine, and the populations cultural outlook has also grown apart a lot over the years, despite the cricket. its hugely multicultural in the biggest cities and the general population many don’t have the same “family fondness” for the “mother country” once existed - that way of thinking is very much for the over 70s.

    People look far more to the US or Asia, which is where most of their trade is.

    There would be a lot of work to do to get to new, enduring and successful tie ups with Oz.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,643

    malcolmg said:


    Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?

    I guess it would only require a minor adjustment of mindset to move from 'don't leave us, whinging, benefit junky, Jock bastards' to 'come and join us, cheating, convict, Aussie tossers'. A little UKOK charm goes a long way.
    No sane person would want to be associated with them TUD, hence everyone but Trump running for shelter when the morons come peddling their FTA's. I lie, the Faroes Islands caved in.
    malcomg peddling lies again. Who'd have thunk.....

    Deals so far:

    South Korea

    Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama have signed the UK-Central America Association Agreement.

    Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have signed the UK-Andean Countries Trade Agreement

    Norway

    Iceland

    Barbados, Belize, The Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, The Republic of Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have signed the CARIFORUM-UK Economic Partnership Agreement

    Fiji and Papua New Guinea

    Lichtenstein

    Isreal

    The Palestinian Authority

    Switzerland

    Chile

    Madagascar

    Mauritius

    Seychelles

    Zimbabwe

    Oh, and the Faroe Islands.
    That list must cover a very small percentage of UK trade surely? Only Korea and Switzerland are outside the margin of error on trade volumes?
    In my admittedly limited experience of management, it was always a serious warning sign when a member of staff held up a list of very minor targets achieved in an attempt to obscure the failure to complete the key few which accounted for 80-90% of the job.
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    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    malcolmg said:


    Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?

    I guess it would only require a minor adjustment of mindset to move from 'don't leave us, whinging, benefit junky, Jock bastards' to 'come and join us, cheating, convict, Aussie tossers'. A little UKOK charm goes a long way.
    No sane person would want to be associated with them TUD, hence everyone but Trump running for shelter when the morons come peddling their FTA's. I lie, the Faroes Islands caved in.
    malcomg peddling lies again. Who'd have thunk.....

    Deals so far:

    South Korea

    Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama have signed the UK-Central America Association Agreement.

    Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have signed the UK-Andean Countries Trade Agreement

    Norway

    Iceland

    Barbados, Belize, The Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, The Republic of Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have signed the CARIFORUM-UK Economic Partnership Agreement

    Fiji and Papua New Guinea

    Lichtenstein

    Isreal

    The Palestinian Authority

    Switzerland

    Chile

    Madagascar

    Mauritius

    Seychelles

    Zimbabwe

    Oh, and the Faroe Islands.
    That list must cover a very small percentage of UK trade surely? Only Korea and Switzerland are outside the margin of error on trade volumes?
    There's enough there to keep us fed, tho.

    Swiss cheese
    Madagascan vanilla
    Icelandic fish
    South sea spices
    Colombian coffee
    Zimbawean fruit and veg
    Korean pickles

    and

    Chilean wine

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    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Barnesian said:

    Meanwhile in Israel with 63% counted:

    Blue and White 32
    Likud 31
    Religious 24
    Arab 13
    Left 11
    Liebermann 9

    Likud+Religious not feasible
    Blue and White plus Likud feasible but not with Netanyahu
    Blue and White plus Left plus Liebermann with C&S from Arab feasible but will Liebermann agree to even C&S from Arab?

    Most likely outcome: Central coalition minus Netanyahu.

    Just like our Oct 31, Israel also has a date with destiny. It is Netanyahu's trial. Whatever happens, there will be no immunity law passed. Once the trial starts, the Likud Mps will drift towards a National coalition. Like Salvini, I would also like Liebermann to be ignored.
    Basically, in Israel, there are very few good choices. Even B&W is not hugely different from Likud minus Netanyahu.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,460
    edited September 2019

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nothing like a bit of class war on a wednesday...

    https://twitter.com/AbolishEton/status/1174218833248305153

    As a Hard Left Social Democrat this is exactly the sort of policy I want from Labour.

    It's what I go to school for. Not a private one obviously.
    "John McDonnell said he supported a motion put forward by the campaign group Labour Against Private Schools calling for independent schools in England to be stripped of their charitable status, to have limits placed on their pupils’ entry to universities, and for their assets to be used by the state education sector."

    So not abolishing them?

    Stripped of charitable status - I would agree with that and you dont need to be hard left to do so, private schools are hardly charities in the sense most people understand the word

    Limits placed on their pupils entry to university - Would prefer govt funding for universities to be tied to fairer access between state and private schools, think thats a better solution but agree there is a problem

    Assets to be used by the state education sector - I dont understand what they mean in practice here - if they are taking all the assets the first two points above become completely irrelevant! I very much doubt I would agree with whatever the actual intent of that point is. This is where momentum really lose the part of the country that could support a left of centre govt, when they talk of just taking other peoples assets rather than finding ways to help redistribution over time.
    I think McDonnell means he is going to steal the endowments.

    Very expensive bit of hate politics ... currently the contribution of the Independent Sector to the UK Economy is well over 10bn a year.

    https://www.isc.co.uk/research/independent-schools-economic-impact-report-2018/

    I wonder how discrimination against children better qualified for a university place will play in the Courts?

    I would like to see an analysis of the Independent Sector in terms of 'class' and as an engine of social mobility.

    The two in my extended family went independent due to special needs and bullying which the State Headmaster could not remedy; parents had no holidays for a decade.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,910
    edited September 2019
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why is it so tough to find the actual Israeli election results as they currently are rather than 100s of opinion pieces and hot takes ?

    Try https:votes22.bechirot.gov.il

    Remember it is D'Hondt with a 3.25% cut off.
    I've created a spreadsheet that does the calculation.
    Even though the cut off is 3.25%, I make the effective cut off d'hondt de minimis needed for a seat 0.782% right now

    Blue and White - led 32
    Likud led by Benjami 32
    The joint list Hadas 13
    Torah observant Seph 9
    Israel our home, hea 9
    Torah Judaism and Sh 7
    Right, headed by Aye 7
    The work - a bridge 6
    Democratic camp led 5

    Is what I get off official Gov't results.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,849
    edited September 2019

    malcolmg said:

    He makes Scott sound like a genius, is that the best the unionists can do , the mutterings of a failed dogfood salesman.
    Why do Nats hate business?

    I see Scotland’s GDP growth has lagged rUK again. Brexit uncertainty is a widely cited factor.

    Any additional uncertainty factor in Scotland to account for the slower growth?
    The large ball and chain of the UK dragging us down. We are playing with a stacked deck.
    PS: your rubbish up top, we love "business" that can actually do business, not run at a loss every year, any moron can manage that.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,846
    edited September 2019

    On the Labour position of 'negotiate a shining new non-Tory jobs-first deal and then have most of the party campaign against it in a referendum' is, as others have said, rather curious. It certainly doesn't win any prizes for clarity.

    There's also another problem with it. Why on earth would the EU waste time and political capital negotiating a new deal with a government which isn't committed to implementing it?

    Why would they negotiate?

    Because its then down to soft BREXIT deal or Remain and the people of GB decide.


    Has to be win win for the EU

    Tis not rocket science is it Richard
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    On the Labour position of 'negotiate a shining new non-Tory jobs-first deal and then have most of the party campaign against it in a referendum' is, as others have said, rather curious. It certainly doesn't win any prizes for clarity.

    There's also another problem with it. Why on earth would the EU waste time and political capital negotiating a new deal with a government which isn't committed to implementing it?

    That was David Cameron's spin on his own negotiation, not Labour's. That if he (Cameron) could not negotiate what he regarded as a good deal, he'd recommend voting against it in the referendum.

    Why would the EU deal with a Labour government? Because there are benefits for the EU? Because at least they'd be talking about something rather than butting heads over the same details under Theresa May, or undisclosed fantasy plans under Boris?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,849
    Byronic said:

    malcolmg said:


    Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?

    I guess it would only require a minor adjustment of mindset to move from 'don't leave us, whinging, benefit junky, Jock bastards' to 'come and join us, cheating, convict, Aussie tossers'. A little UKOK charm goes a long way.
    No sane person would want to be associated with them TUD, hence everyone but Trump running for shelter when the morons come peddling their FTA's. I lie, the Faroes Islands caved in.
    malcomg peddling lies again. Who'd have thunk.....

    Deals so far:

    South Korea

    Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama have signed the UK-Central America Association Agreement.

    Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have signed the UK-Andean Countries Trade Agreement

    Norway

    Iceland

    Barbados, Belize, The Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, The Republic of Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have signed the CARIFORUM-UK Economic Partnership Agreement

    Fiji and Papua New Guinea

    Lichtenstein

    Isreal

    The Palestinian Authority

    Switzerland

    Chile

    Madagascar

    Mauritius

    Seychelles

    Zimbabwe

    Oh, and the Faroe Islands.
    That list must cover a very small percentage of UK trade surely? Only Korea and Switzerland are outside the margin of error on trade volumes?
    There's enough there to keep us fed, tho.

    Swiss cheese
    Madagascan vanilla
    Icelandic fish
    South sea spices
    Colombian coffee
    Zimbawean fruit and veg
    Korean pickles

    and

    Chilean wine

    You have a strange and boring diet it seems
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    On the Labour position of 'negotiate a shining new non-Tory jobs-first deal and then have most of the party campaign against it in a referendum' is, as others have said, rather curious. It certainly doesn't win any prizes for clarity.

    There's also another problem with it. Why on earth would the EU waste time and political capital negotiating a new deal with a government which isn't committed to implementing it?

    I mean, the EU wouldn't need to negotiate much. The Labour 'deal' would just be the Withdrawal Agreement, plus the political declaration rewritten with some different, non-binding waffle.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,280
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    What about a bit of property distribution, from NW3 to NE3, say?

    I do favour that as you well know.

    It's time to look after neglected people in neglected places.

    If we don't do this they do crazy things like voting to leave the European Union.
    I'm sure you'll lead by example if you haven't already.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,849

    malcolmg said:


    Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?

    I guess it would only require a minor adjustment of mindset to move from 'don't leave us, whinging, benefit junky, Jock bastards' to 'come and join us, cheating, convict, Aussie tossers'. A little UKOK charm goes a long way.
    No sane person would want to be associated with them TUD, hence everyone but Trump running for shelter when the morons come peddling their FTA's. I lie, the Faroes Islands caved in.
    malcomg peddling lies again. Who'd have thunk.....

    Deals so far:

    South Korea

    Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama have signed the UK-Central America Association Agreement.

    Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have signed the UK-Andean Countries Trade Agreement

    Norway

    Iceland

    Barbados, Belize, The Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, The Republic of Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have signed the CARIFORUM-UK Economic Partnership Agreement

    Fiji and Papua New Guinea

    Lichtenstein

    Isreal

    The Palestinian Authority

    Switzerland

    Chile

    Madagascar

    Mauritius

    Seychelles

    Zimbabwe

    Oh, and the Faroe Islands.
    WOW , all the giants of commerce included in there, that must be nearly 1% of our trade , assuming massive rounding, sorted out right there. How could I have been so mistaken.
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    MattW said:

    I think McDonnell means he is going to steal the endowments.

    Very expensive bit of hate politics ... currently the contribution of the Independent Sector to the UK Economy is well over 10bn a year.

    https://www.isc.co.uk/research/independent-schools-economic-impact-report-2018/

    I wonder how discrimination against children better qualified for a university place will play in the Courts?

    I would like to see an analysis of the Independent Sector in terms of 'class' and as an engine of social mobility.

    The two in my extended family went independent due to special needs and bullying which the State Headmaster could not remedy; parents had no holidays for a decade.

    Eton will have to dust off its 1970s plan for relocating to Ireland.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,460
    malcolmg said:

    He makes Scott sound like a genius, is that the best the unionists can do , the mutterings of a failed dogfood salesman.
    Lol. £15m turnover and nearly 200 jobs created in just one company, and others in the group.

    Some failure.
  • Options
    Danny565 said:

    On the Labour position of 'negotiate a shining new non-Tory jobs-first deal and then have most of the party campaign against it in a referendum' is, as others have said, rather curious. It certainly doesn't win any prizes for clarity.

    There's also another problem with it. Why on earth would the EU waste time and political capital negotiating a new deal with a government which isn't committed to implementing it?

    I mean, the EU wouldn't need to negotiate much. The Labour 'deal' would just be the Withdrawal Agreement, plus the political declaration rewritten with some different, non-binding waffle.
    True.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189

    MattW said:

    I think McDonnell means he is going to steal the endowments.

    Very expensive bit of hate politics ... currently the contribution of the Independent Sector to the UK Economy is well over 10bn a year.

    https://www.isc.co.uk/research/independent-schools-economic-impact-report-2018/

    I wonder how discrimination against children better qualified for a university place will play in the Courts?

    I would like to see an analysis of the Independent Sector in terms of 'class' and as an engine of social mobility.

    The two in my extended family went independent due to special needs and bullying which the State Headmaster could not remedy; parents had no holidays for a decade.

    Eton will have to dust off its 1970s plan for relocating to Ireland.
    I thought Switzerland was now the destination of choice for Eton in this scenario?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,849
    You are through the barrel rather than scraping it , how desperate are things with unionists.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,280

    On the Labour position of 'negotiate a shining new non-Tory jobs-first deal and then have most of the party campaign against it in a referendum' is, as others have said, rather curious. It certainly doesn't win any prizes for clarity.

    There's also another problem with it. Why on earth would the EU waste time and political capital negotiating a new deal with a government which isn't committed to implementing it?

    Why would they negotiate?

    Because its then down to soft BREXIT deal or Remain and the people of GB decide.


    Has to be win win for the EU

    Tis not rocket science is it Richard
    Let's say that the Labour Party wants what is best for the country. It is either a deal to leave the EU or it is not to leave. It can't be both.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,098
    edited September 2019

    malcolmg said:


    Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?

    I guess it would only require a minor adjustment of mindset to move from 'don't leave us, whinging, benefit junky, Jock bastards' to 'come and join us, cheating, convict, Aussie tossers'. A little UKOK charm goes a long way.
    No sane person would want to be associated with them TUD, hence everyone but Trump running for shelter when the morons come peddling their FTA's. I lie, the Faroes Islands caved in.
    malcomg peddling lies again. Who'd have thunk.....

    Deals so far:

    South Korea

    Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama have signed the UK-Central America Association Agreement.

    Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have signed the UK-Andean Countries Trade Agreement

    Norway

    Iceland

    Barbados, Belize, The Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, The Republic of Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have signed the CARIFORUM-UK Economic Partnership Agreement

    Fiji and Papua New Guinea

    Lichtenstein

    Isreal

    The Palestinian Authority

    Switzerland

    Chile

    Madagascar

    Mauritius

    Seychelles

    Zimbabwe

    Oh, and the Faroe Islands.
    That list must cover a very small percentage of UK trade surely? Only Korea and Switzerland are outside the margin of error on trade volumes?
    I think it is customery at this point to say "we haven't left yet".

    The former Aus PM was on Radio 4 yesterday saying that basically, their two "negotiating" teams had very constructive meetings, but couldn't call them negotiations until we actually left.

    It was very illuminating. He was far more fired up by the possibilities of Brexit than anyone I have heard from the UK.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    He makes Scott sound like a genius, is that the best the unionists can do , the mutterings of a failed dogfood salesman.
    Why do Nats hate business?

    I see Scotland’s GDP growth has lagged rUK again. Brexit uncertainty is a widely cited factor.

    Any additional uncertainty factor in Scotland to account for the slower growth?
    .
    PS: your rubbish up top, we love "business" that can actually do business, not run at a loss every year, any moron can manage that.
    Like, I dunno, shipbuilding?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,849

    malcolmg said:


    Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?

    I guess it would only require a minor adjustment of mindset to move from 'don't leave us, whinging, benefit junky, Jock bastards' to 'come and join us, cheating, convict, Aussie tossers'. A little UKOK charm goes a long way.
    No sane person would want to be associated with them TUD, hence everyone but Trump running for shelter when the morons come peddling their FTA's. I lie, the Faroes Islands caved in.
    malcomg peddling lies again. Who'd have thunk.....

    Deals so far:

    South Korea

    Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama have signed the UK-Central America Association Agreement.

    Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have signed the UK-Andean Countries Trade Agreement

    Norway

    Iceland

    Barbados, Belize, The Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, The Republic of Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have signed the CARIFORUM-UK Economic Partnership Agreement

    Fiji and Papua New Guinea

    Lichtenstein

    Isreal

    The Palestinian Authority

    Switzerland

    Chile

    Madagascar

    Mauritius

    Seychelles

    Zimbabwe

    Oh, and the Faroe Islands.
    That list must cover a very small percentage of UK trade surely? Only Korea and Switzerland are outside the margin of error on trade volumes?
    I think it is customery at this point to say "we haven't left yet".

    The former Aus PM was on Radio 4 yesterday saying that basically, their two "negotiating" teams had very constructive meetings, but couldn't call them negotiations until we actually left.

    It was very illuminating. He was far more fired up by the possibilities of Brexit than anyone I have heard from the UK.
    He will be happy to pick the bones after Trump has gorged on the carcass
  • Options
    I think the government need a new lawyer...he is drowning like may at a dance.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Wut? The legislation is making its way through Holyrood. Also, we haven't Brexited yet.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,849
    MattW said:

    malcolmg said:

    He makes Scott sound like a genius, is that the best the unionists can do , the mutterings of a failed dogfood salesman.
    Lol. £15m turnover and nearly 200 jobs created in just one company, and others in the group.

    Some failure.
    Pity about the £20M expenditure
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why is it so tough to find the actual Israeli election results as they currently are rather than 100s of opinion pieces and hot takes ?

    Try https:votes22.bechirot.gov.il

    Remember it is D'Hondt with a 3.25% cut off.
    I've created a spreadsheet that does the calculation.
    Even though the cut off is 3.25%, I make the effective cut off d'hondt de minimis needed for a seat 0.782% right now

    Blue and White - led 32
    Likud led by Benjami 32
    The joint list Hadas 13
    Torah observant Seph 9
    Israel our home, hea 9
    Torah Judaism and Sh 7
    Right, headed by Aye 7
    The work - a bridge 6
    Democratic camp led 5

    Is what I get off official Gov't results.
    Based on results at 12:53 I get the same except Likud 31 and the Bridge (Yama) 7

    Tel Aviv and Arab areas are slower coming in so the trend is towards Blue and White and the Arab Joint List.
  • Options

    MattW said:

    I think McDonnell means he is going to steal the endowments.

    Very expensive bit of hate politics ... currently the contribution of the Independent Sector to the UK Economy is well over 10bn a year.

    https://www.isc.co.uk/research/independent-schools-economic-impact-report-2018/

    I wonder how discrimination against children better qualified for a university place will play in the Courts?

    I would like to see an analysis of the Independent Sector in terms of 'class' and as an engine of social mobility.

    The two in my extended family went independent due to special needs and bullying which the State Headmaster could not remedy; parents had no holidays for a decade.

    Eton will have to dust off its 1970s plan for relocating to Ireland.
    They welcome tax dodgers efficient planning!
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:


    Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?

    I guess it would only require a minor adjustment of mindset to move from 'don't leave us, whinging, benefit junky, Jock bastards' to 'come and join us, cheating, convict, Aussie tossers'. A little UKOK charm goes a long way.
    No sane person would want to be associated with them TUD, hence everyone but Trump running for shelter when the morons come peddling their FTA's. I lie, the Faroes Islands caved in.
    malcomg peddling lies again. Who'd have thunk.....

    Deals so far:

    South Korea

    Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama have signed the UK-Central America Association Agreement.

    Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have signed the UK-Andean Countries Trade Agreement

    Norway

    Iceland

    Barbados, Belize, The Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, The Republic of Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have signed the CARIFORUM-UK Economic Partnership Agreement

    Fiji and Papua New Guinea

    Lichtenstein

    Isreal

    The Palestinian Authority

    Switzerland

    Chile

    Madagascar

    Mauritius

    Seychelles

    Zimbabwe

    Oh, and the Faroe Islands.
    WOW , all the giants of commerce included in there, that must be nearly 1% of our trade , assuming massive rounding, sorted out right there. How could I have been so mistaken.
    Wot no Grand Duchy of Fenwick .... Has Boris the mouse not roared ?!? .... :smile:
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,098

    kle4 said:

    From the live summaries looks like the government lawyer is facing tough questions. Right on the law or not the 'it's not for you to question' argument will be unpopular outside the court at least.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1174273241147432960?s=20
    They've also got three days to fill, so even if they'd decided to back the Government yesterday, they have to go through the motions and explore some esoteric legal cul de sacs.....
  • Options
    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nothing like a bit of class war on a wednesday...

    https://twitter.com/AbolishEton/status/1174218833248305153

    As a Hard Left Social Democrat this is exactly the sort of policy I want from Labour.

    It's what I go to school for. Not a private one obviously.
    "John McDonnell said he supported a motion put forward by the campaign group Labour Against Private Schools calling for independent schools in England to be stripped of their charitable status, to have limits placed on their pupils’ entry to universities, and for their assets to be used by the state education sector."

    So not abolishing them?

    Stripped of charitable status - I would agree with that and you dont need to be hard left to do so, private schools are hardly charities in the sense most people understand the word

    Limits placed on their pupils entry to university - Would prefer govt funding for universities to be tied to fairer access between state and private schools, think thats a better solution but agree there is a problem

    Assets to be used by the state education sector - I dont understand what they mean in practice here - if they are taking all the assets the first two points above become completely irrelevant! I very much doubt I would agree with whatever the actual intent of that point is. This is where momentum really lose the part of the country that could support a left of centre govt, when they talk of just taking other peoples assets rather than finding ways to help redistribution over time.
    I think McDonnell means he is going to steal the endowments.

    Very expensive bit of hate politics ... currently the contribution of the Independent Sector to the UK Economy is well over 10bn a year.

    https://www.isc.co.uk/research/independent-schools-economic-impact-report-2018/

    I wonder how discrimination against children better qualified for a university place will play in the Courts?

    I would like to see an analysis of the Independent Sector in terms of 'class' and as an engine of social mobility.

    The two in my extended family went independent due to special needs and bullying which the State Headmaster could not remedy; parents had no holidays for a decade.
    It is folly to suggest that there is not already discrimination against state school kids applying to the better universities. Just as one of many examples

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2019/aug/24/private-schools-igcse-exams-easier-gcse-university-admissions
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,910
    "The pirates - because we're all in the same boat and it's all the same cruise" have 940 votes right now in the Israeli election

  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Jimbo74 said:

    I have a feeling many desperate for a free movement agreement / economy with Aus will find its rather one sided and they won’t be so keen.

    The Australians have worked very hard to ensure a mixture of skills into their country.

    Opening up to unskilled? labour and randoms from the uk will not go down well with many there - unlike the uk it’s still quite a high wage country, quite protectionist and regulated and the unions are incredibly strong relative to the uk.

    The economy and the mindset are quite different.

    I also think many Brits idea of what Australia is, is about 25 years out of date. The place as previous posters have said, has become increasingly Asian (partic Chinese and also India who both send loads more immigrants than Britain does and have done for years and have created a lot of wealth there. It’s influenced in both population mix and power and outlook.

    Economic bonds to Europe and the uk are also virtually non existent, despite the wine, and the populations cultural outlook has also grown apart a lot over the years, despite the cricket. its hugely multicultural in the biggest cities and the general population many don’t have the same “family fondness” for the “mother country” once existed - that way of thinking is very much for the over 70s.

    People look far more to the US or Asia, which is where most of their trade is.

    There would be a lot of work to do to get to new, enduring and successful tie ups with Oz.

    I visit Oz a lot, and know it well. Yes it is very multicultural now - but also recognisably "British" - Aussies would say they have more in common with Britain than any other nation, bar New Zealand. Yes it is itself, a proud young country - and yet it is still unsure whether it wants to get rid of the British monarchy.

    If anything, the most striking thing about Australia is how parochial it is. Look at an Aussie website and all they want to read is stories about Australia, often stories about their own Australian city. This must be a product of their unique geography. Vast and isolated.

    There won't be free movement between Oz and the UK. But I predict visa arrangements will be relaxed almost to the point of free movement. Because the two countries are a good fit. Young Aussies want to be able to live and work in the UK, especially London. Brits want to feel they can visit Antipodean rellies and enjoy the Aussie sun, without hassle.

  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    You are through the barrel rather than scraping it , how desperate are things with unionists.
    Bit rich for Sturgeon to claim others are trying to “rig the question” while she’s legislating to exclude the Electoral Commission!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,910
    edited September 2019
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why is it so tough to find the actual Israeli election results as they currently are rather than 100s of opinion pieces and hot takes ?

    Try https:votes22.bechirot.gov.il

    Remember it is D'Hondt with a 3.25% cut off.
    I've created a spreadsheet that does the calculation.
    Even though the cut off is 3.25%, I make the effective cut off d'hondt de minimis needed for a seat 0.782% right now

    Blue and White - led 32
    Likud led by Benjami 32
    The joint list Hadas 13
    Torah observant Seph 9
    Israel our home, hea 9
    Torah Judaism and Sh 7
    Right, headed by Aye 7
    The work - a bridge 6
    Democratic camp led 5

    Is what I get off official Gov't results.
    Based on results at 12:53 I get the same except Likud 31 and the Bridge (Yama) 7

    Tel Aviv and Arab areas are slower coming in so the trend is towards Blue and White and the Arab Joint List.
    Ah the same dynamics as in the US election (Particularly a state like VA) where the Trump/Bibi rural areas count quickly and the more liberal Richmond/Tel Aviv etc take forever ?
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited September 2019
    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nothing like a bit of class war on a wednesday...

    https://twitter.com/AbolishEton/status/1174218833248305153

    As a Hard Left Social Democrat this is exactly the sort of policy I want from Labour.

    It's what I go to school for. Not a private one obviously.
    "John McDonnell said he supported a motion put forward by the campaign group Labour Against Private Schools calling for independent schools in England to be stripped of their charitable status, to have limits placed on their pupils’ entry to universities, and for their assets to be used by the state education sector."

    So not abolishing them?

    Stripped of charitable status - I would agree with that and you dont need to be hard left to do so, private schools are hardly charities in the sense most people understand the word

    Limits placed on their pupils entry to university - Would prefer govt funding for universities to be tied to fairer access between state and private schools, think thats a better solution but agree there is a problem

    Assets to be used by the state education sector - I dont understand what they mean in practice here - if they are taking all the assets the first two points above become completely irrelevant! I very much doubt I would agree with whatever the actual intent of that point is. This is where momentum really lose the part of the country that could support a left of centre govt, when they talk of just taking other peoples assets rather than finding ways to help redistribution over time.
    I think McDonnell means he is going to steal the endowments.

    Very expensive bit of hate politics ... currently the contribution of the Independent Sector to the UK Economy is well over 10bn a year.

    https://www.isc.co.uk/research/independent-schools-economic-impact-report-2018/

    I wonder how discrimination against children better qualified for a university place will play in the Courts?
    Good question but that already happens.

    It ought to be a public scandal how the privately-educated dominate politics, the professions, the media and even sport.

    That said, leaving policy to one side, I'm not sure it is particularly clever politics in terms of getting elected. Surely the only voters who feel so strongly that this will determine their votes, are the ones using the private sector; I cannot think which voters it might attract on the other side.

    There are other ways to level the playing field. One would be to stop unfair recruitment practices, such as only opening jobs to Oxbridge, Russell Group or wherever. Another would be, and here I channel my inner Dominic Cummings, to get serious about improving education rather than obsessing about organisational changes, as has generally been the case from the 1940s through to 2019.
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    malcolmg said:

    Byronic said:

    malcolmg said:


    Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?

    I guess it would only require a minor adjustment of mindset to move from 'don't leave us, whinging, benefit junky, Jock bastards' to 'come and join us, cheating, convict, Aussie tossers'. A little UKOK charm goes a long way.
    No sane person would want to be associated with them TUD, hence everyone but Trump running for shelter when the morons come peddling their FTA's. I lie, the Faroes Islands caved in.
    malcomg peddling lies again. Who'd have thunk.....

    Deals so far:

    South Korea

    Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama have signed the UK-Central America Association Agreement.

    Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have signed the UK-Andean Countries Trade Agreement

    Norway

    Iceland

    Barbados, Belize, The Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, The Republic of Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have signed the CARIFORUM-UK Economic Partnership Agreement

    Fiji and Papua New Guinea

    Lichtenstein

    Isreal

    The Palestinian Authority

    Switzerland

    Chile

    Madagascar

    Mauritius

    Seychelles

    Zimbabwe

    Oh, and the Faroe Islands.
    That list must cover a very small percentage of UK trade surely? Only Korea and Switzerland are outside the margin of error on trade volumes?
    There's enough there to keep us fed, tho.

    Swiss cheese
    Madagascan vanilla
    Icelandic fish
    South sea spices
    Colombian coffee
    Zimbawean fruit and veg
    Korean pickles

    and

    Chilean wine

    You have a strange and boring diet it seems
    I'd be perfectly happy with just the pickles and the wine, tbh
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited September 2019
    I wonder what proportion of private school kids are from abroad? Stereotypically they have educated many who have gone onto powerful roles in their home countries. I have a feeling like uni places, more than ever rich foreign parents want their kids educated at top English private schools.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,949

    malcolmg said:


    Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?

    I guess it would only require a minor adjustment of mindset to move from 'don't leave us, whinging, benefit junky, Jock bastards' to 'come and join us, cheating, convict, Aussie tossers'. A little UKOK charm goes a long way.
    No sane person would want to be associated with them TUD, hence everyone but Trump running for shelter when the morons come peddling their FTA's. I lie, the Faroes Islands caved in.
    malcomg peddling lies again. Who'd have thunk.....

    Deals so far:

    South Korea

    Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama have signed the UK-Central America Association Agreement.

    Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have signed the UK-Andean Countries Trade Agreement

    Norway

    Iceland

    Barbados, Belize, The Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, The Republic of Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have signed the CARIFORUM-UK Economic Partnership Agreement

    Fiji and Papua New Guinea

    Lichtenstein

    Isreal

    The Palestinian Authority

    Switzerland

    Chile

    Madagascar

    Mauritius

    Seychelles

    Zimbabwe

    Oh, and the Faroe Islands.
    That list must cover a very small percentage of UK trade surely? Only Korea and Switzerland are outside the margin of error on trade volumes?
    And how many of these agreements differ from the EU version bar a different name.

    And given that which countries have a deal with the EU where Britain doesn’t have n outline plan?

    Once again a Brexit story that looks good until you do 30 seconds of research
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,887
    Scott_P said:
    An article in a magazine is not what I would call "a reception". I'm sure her hosts are being most hospitable to her, as she picks up her "M100 Media Award" in Potsdam.
  • Options
    Scott_P said:
    Google Translate:
    Sturgeon is carved from the same wood as Boris Johnson and his Brexit brigade. She is the leader of a party that carries almost all the features of modern populism. Not only does the SNP have a questionable attitude to the freedom of the press, it also provides the Scots with a victimhood that explains any mishaps with the malignancy of English politics and promises everyone exactly what they want to hear. Ms. Sturgeon's nationalist ideology is so meaningless that she recently sincerely announced that the SNP is the party of every single Scotsman. If this is not an exclamation of a one-party state, what is it?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited September 2019
    The single biggest and simplest way of leveling the playing field for uni is post a-level result application. But when gove suggested the blob went nuts, but now labour think its a good idea.

    It totally removes the nonsense predicted grades and then you can judge people on what they actually scored and then if you want make small adjustments to favour taking billy from a sink school and still got all A's vs Eton educated all A's but slightly higher marks.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,326
    TOPPING said:



    Let's say that the Labour Party wants what is best for the country. It is either a deal to leave the EU or it is not to leave. It can't be both.

    I disagree. It's good government, if you have a referendum at all, to offer two options which you feel can be effected without disastrous results, especially if you're trying to deal with the consequences of an earlier referendum.

    Labour thinks that a No Deal outcome would be disastrous, so cannot in conscience be offered. Both remaining and leaving with a Norway-style deal are outcomes that we could live with, and given that Britain has gone down the referendum path, it's reasonable to offer that choice.
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited September 2019

    Scott_P said:
    Google Translate:
    Sturgeon is carved from the same wood as Boris Johnson and his Brexit brigade. She is the leader of a party that carries almost all the features of modern populism. Not only does the SNP have a questionable attitude to the freedom of the press, it also provides the Scots with a victimhood that explains any mishaps with the malignancy of English politics and promises everyone exactly what they want to hear. Ms. Sturgeon's nationalist ideology is so meaningless that she recently sincerely announced that the SNP is the party of every single Scotsman. If this is not an exclamation of a one-party state, what is it?
    That's brutal.

    "O wad some Power the giftie gie us To see oursels as ithers see us?"

    Well, there you are, Nicola.
  • Options
    If Labour's task was to move in as europhile a direction as possible while keeping open the option of still leaving the EU under a Labour government then its finalised policy offer delivers that. It's also non toxic to the more europhile opposition parties they would need in a hung parliament. Once you eliminate their first preferences Labour's policy is an attractive second preference. Other than anti second referendum ultras it also offers enough to keep nearly all Labour MPs on board for MV4.

    It's the political fudge that Harrods would sell you.
  • Options

    The single biggest and simplest way if leveling the playing field for uni is post a-level result application.

    It totally removes the nonsense predicted grades and then you can judge people on what they actually scored and then if you want make small adjustments to favour taking billy from a sink school and still got all A's vs Eton educated all A's but slightly higher marks.

    And A-level grades that distinguish levels of ability rather than giving everyone an A for everything so they can be selected according to other criteria.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,887

    The single biggest and simplest way if leveling the playing field for uni is post a-level result application.

    It totally removes the nonsense predicted grades and then you can judge people on what they actually scored and then if you want make small adjustments to favour taking billy from a sink school and still got all A's vs Eton educated all A's but slightly higher marks.

    Have I got enough time to get some popcorn in before Ydoethr (sorry for the spelling) comes back with his opinion on this?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,280
    Byronic said:

    malcolmg said:

    Byronic said:

    malcolmg said:


    Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?

    I guess it would only require a minor adjustment of mindset to move from 'don't leave us, whinging, benefit junky, Jock bastards' to 'come and join us, cheating, convict, Aussie tossers'. A little UKOK charm goes a long way.
    No sane person would want to be associated with them TUD, hence everyone but Trump running for shelter when the morons come peddling their FTA's. I lie, the Faroes Islands caved in.
    malcomg peddling lies again. Who'd have thunk.....

    Deals so far:

    South Korea

    Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama have signed the UK-Central America Association Agreement.

    Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have signed the UK-Andean Countries Trade Agreement

    Norway

    Iceland

    Barbados, Belize, The Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, The Republic of Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have signed the CARIFORUM-UK Economic Partnership Agreement

    Fiji and Papua New Guinea

    Lichtenstein

    Isreal

    The Palestinian Authority

    Switzerland

    Chile

    Madagascar

    Mauritius

    Seychelles

    Zimbabwe

    Oh, and the Faroe Islands.
    That list must cover a very small percentage of UK trade surely? Only Korea and Switzerland are outside the margin of error on trade volumes?
    There's enough there to keep us fed, tho.

    Swiss cheese
    Madagascan vanilla
    Icelandic fish
    South sea spices
    Colombian coffee
    Zimbawean fruit and veg
    Korean pickles

    and

    Chilean wine

    You have a strange and boring diet it seems
    I'd be perfectly happy with just the pickles and the wine, tbh
    I thought bananas were the thing as they taste the same coming back up as they did going down.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,702

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:
    By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
    If it involved freedom of movemen TO Australia, I would strongly support it. But I suspect it will involve freedom of movement FROM Australia, hence my rather hysterical and totally unsurprised horse laughter... :(
    I doubt swapping freedom of movement with a population of 446 million with one one twentieth of its size would be too controversial
    That wasn't the point I was making.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,949

    The single biggest and simplest way if leveling the playing field for uni is post a-level result application.

    It totally removes the nonsense predicted grades and then you can judge people on what they actually scored and then if you want make small adjustments to favour taking billy from a sink school and still got all A's vs Eton educated all A's but slightly higher marks.

    Given the stories I’ve heard about this years A level marking I’m really not sure that’s a good plan unless marking quality is seriously improved.
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    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    If Labour's task was to move in as europhile a direction as possible while keeping open the option of still leaving the EU under a Labour government then its finalised policy offer delivers that. It's also non toxic to the more europhile opposition parties they would need in a hung parliament. Once you eliminate their first preferences Labour's policy is an attractive second preference. Other than anti second referendum ultras it also offers enough to keep nearly all Labour MPs on board for MV4.

    It's the political fudge that Harrods would sell you.

    Put it like that, and it sounds almost reasonable. The trouble is it cannot be reduced to a cute sentence, and can be easily ridiculed: "Unlike the useless evil Tories will fight for a better deal in Brussels, and then campaign against our own deal because it will be shit! Vote for us!"

    I mean, it's a tough sell, isn't it? And they still haven't found a way of rebutting this.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,849

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    He makes Scott sound like a genius, is that the best the unionists can do , the mutterings of a failed dogfood salesman.
    Why do Nats hate business?

    I see Scotland’s GDP growth has lagged rUK again. Brexit uncertainty is a widely cited factor.

    Any additional uncertainty factor in Scotland to account for the slower growth?
    .
    PS: your rubbish up top, we love "business" that can actually do business, not run at a loss every year, any moron can manage that.
    Like, I dunno, shipbuilding?
    that the rapidly diminishing union benefit we were promised would be doubled but instead is to be moved mostly to England
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    The single biggest and simplest way of leveling the playing field for uni is post a-level result application. But when gove suggested the blob went nuts, but now labour think its a good idea.

    It totally removes the nonsense predicted grades and then you can judge people on what they actually scored and then if you want make small adjustments to favour taking billy from a sink school and still got all A's vs Eton educated all A's but slightly higher marks.

    You also get the character insight as you can see what they're doing in their post-school career.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,326

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nothing like a bit of class war on a wednesday...

    https://twitter.com/AbolishEton/status/1174218833248305153

    As a Hard Left Social Democrat this is exactly the sort of policy I want from Labour.

    It's what I go to school for. Not a private one obviously.
    "John McDonnell said he supported a motion put forward by the campaign group Labour Against Private Schools calling for independent schools in England to be stripped of their charitable status, to have limits placed on their pupils’ entry to universities, and for their assets to be used by the state education sector."

    So not abolishing them?

    Stripped of charitable status - I would agree with that and you dont need to be hard left to do so, private schools are hardly charities in the sense most people understand the word

    Limits placed on their pupils entry to university - Would prefer govt funding for universities to be tied to fairer access between state and private schools, think thats a better solution but agree there is a problem

    Assets to be used by the state education sector - I dont understand what they mean in practice here - if they are taking all the assets the first two points above become completely irrelevant! I very much doubt I would agree with whatever the actual intent of that point is. This is where momentum really lose the part of the country that could support a left of centre govt, when they talk of just taking other peoples assets rather than finding ways to help redistribution over time.
    No, what they mean (and I agree it's not clearly expressed) is that state schools should be able to share sports fields etc. that are owned by private schools. This is already seen as good practice by the private sector, but there are lots of private schools that don't actually bother. Clearly practical agreements would be needed to avoid double-booking of facilities, but the idea is not especially controversial - if a facility is not being used at 5pm on Saturday, why shouldn't it be used by a state school, subject to reasonable arrangements to leave it in good condition?
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    Dominic Cummings has seized new powers to sack ministers’ advisers as No 10 moves to centralise control of the government.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/dominic-cummings-cements-his-power-to-sack-advisers-m6q77gkxd (paywall)

    Another one for the list of constitutional, erm, innovations we were supposed to fear happening under a Stalinist Jeremy Corbyn regime.

    Possibly you could point to the areas of our constitution, such as it is, that deal with the hiring and firing of ministerial advisors ?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,849
    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Google Translate:
    Sturgeon is carved from the same wood as Boris Johnson and his Brexit brigade. She is the leader of a party that carries almost all the features of modern populism. Not only does the SNP have a questionable attitude to the freedom of the press, it also provides the Scots with a victimhood that explains any mishaps with the malignancy of English politics and promises everyone exactly what they want to hear. Ms. Sturgeon's nationalist ideology is so meaningless that she recently sincerely announced that the SNP is the party of every single Scotsman. If this is not an exclamation of a one-party state, what is it?
    That's brutal.

    "O wad some Power the giftie gie us To see oursels as ithers see us?"

    Well, there you are, Nicola.
    LOL, village idiots agree that random bollox is super. If you are going to make up mince try harder. Amazed that you think that garbage is good Sean, I thought better of you
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,280
    edited September 2019

    TOPPING said:



    Let's say that the Labour Party wants what is best for the country. It is either a deal to leave the EU or it is not to leave. It can't be both.

    I disagree. It's good government, if you have a referendum at all, to offer two options which you feel can be effected without disastrous results, especially if you're trying to deal with the consequences of an earlier referendum.

    Labour thinks that a No Deal outcome would be disastrous, so cannot in conscience be offered. Both remaining and leaving with a Norway-style deal are outcomes that we could live with, and given that Britain has gone down the referendum path, it's reasonable to offer that choice.
    They may be able to live with either as alternatives under current circumstances. But they want to be in government and in a position to decide for themselves. At that point they need to work out what is best for the country and pursue that.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,702

    O/T I see there have been a number of quite astonishingly ignorant posts upthread about Help to Buy. I'd suggest people should look up how it works before making daft comments about it.

    Edit: I see @alex understands it!

    ...and if you had pointed out the errors instead of indulging in abuse, your post would have been productive... :(
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    This week I have mainly been reading biographies of Conservative politicians: JRM and Boris now, after Gove; tomorrow Cameron (though if the Times paid squillions for the best bits, then one hesitates to imagine what the rest is like).

    One line from Gimson's Boris seems pertinent to this week's EU wrangling, on Boris not getting his coveted first from Oxford:

    A more humble – or humdrum – character would have said to himself, ‘I really want a first and I’m quite clever enough to get one as long as I prepare carefully for the exam.’ Boris instead said to himself, ‘I really want a first and I’m so clever I can wing it.’
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    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    He makes Scott sound like a genius, is that the best the unionists can do , the mutterings of a failed dogfood salesman.
    Why do Nats hate business?

    I see Scotland’s GDP growth has lagged rUK again. Brexit uncertainty is a widely cited factor.

    Any additional uncertainty factor in Scotland to account for the slower growth?
    .
    PS: your rubbish up top, we love "business" that can actually do business, not run at a loss every year, any moron can manage that.
    Like, I dunno, shipbuilding?
    that the rapidly diminishing union benefit we were promised would be doubled but instead is to be moved mostly to England
    Ferries....who owns that?
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    I wonder what proportion of private school kids are from abroad? Stereotypically they have educated many who have gone onto powerful roles in their home countries. I have a feeling like uni places, more than ever rich foreign parents want their kids educated at top English private schools.

    I think a large part of the left's hate comes from the perception that private schools are all like Eton and Harrow. The vast majority are fairly mundane day schools that will be caught in the cross-fire for no real gain.

    For whatever it's worth I'm state school educated, and think the proportion of senior politicians from the most elite public schools is a disgrace.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,460

    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nothing like a bit of class war on a wednesday...

    https://twitter.com/AbolishEton/status/1174218833248305153

    As a Hard Left Social Democrat this is exactly the sort of policy I want from Labour.

    It's what I go to school for. Not a private one obviously.
    I think McDonnell means he is going to steal the endowments.

    Very expensive bit of hate politics ... currently the contribution of the Independent Sector to the UK Economy is well over 10bn a year.

    https://www.isc.co.uk/research/independent-schools-economic-impact-report-2018/

    I wonder how discrimination against children better qualified for a university place will play in the Courts?

    It ought to be a public scandal how the privately-educated dominate politics, the professions, the media and even sport.

    That said, leaving policy to one side, I'm not sure it is particularly clever politics in terms of getting elected. Surely the only voters who feel so strongly that this will determine their votes, are the ones using the private sector; I cannot think which voters it might attract on the other side.

    There are other ways to level the playing field. One would be to stop unfair recruitment practices, such as only opening jobs to Oxbridge, Russell Group or wherever. Another would be, and here I channel my inner Dominic Cummings, to get serious about improving education rather than obsessing about organisational changes, as has generally been the case from the 1940s through to 2019.
    I would be interested to know whether it is actually private schools or certain Universities that are the driver here.

    Certainly more recent PMs are from Oxford Uni than from Independent Schools, several of them who started in State Schools.

    It would also be interesting to see the outcomes of the state schools sponsored by Eton, and other schools.


  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,887
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why is it so tough to find the actual Israeli election results as they currently are rather than 100s of opinion pieces and hot takes ?

    Try https:votes22.bechirot.gov.il

    Remember it is D'Hondt with a 3.25% cut off.
    I've created a spreadsheet that does the calculation.
    Even though the cut off is 3.25%, I make the effective cut off d'hondt de minimis needed for a seat 0.782% right now

    Blue and White - led 32
    Likud led by Benjami 32
    The joint list Hadas 13
    Torah observant Seph 9
    Israel our home, hea 9
    Torah Judaism and Sh 7
    Right, headed by Aye 7
    The work - a bridge 6
    Democratic camp led 5

    Is what I get off official Gov't results.
    Based on results at 12:53 I get the same except Likud 31 and the Bridge (Yama) 7

    Tel Aviv and Arab areas are slower coming in so the trend is towards Blue and White and the Arab Joint List.
    Ah the same dynamics as in the US election (Particularly a state like VA) where the Trump/Bibi rural areas count quickly and the more liberal Richmond/Tel Aviv etc take forever ?
    This is why you need to update the exit polls giving the correct weighting to actual results and predicted results.

    Otherwise one Rep district in Louisiana and another in Ohio anounce that Trump has won their district and suddnely we have a projection of Trump winning all 50 states.
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    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    malcolmg said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Google Translate:
    Sturgeon is carved from the same wood as Boris Johnson and his Brexit brigade. She is the leader of a party that carries almost all the features of modern populism. Not only does the SNP have a questionable attitude to the freedom of the press, it also provides the Scots with a victimhood that explains any mishaps with the malignancy of English politics and promises everyone exactly what they want to hear. Ms. Sturgeon's nationalist ideology is so meaningless that she recently sincerely announced that the SNP is the party of every single Scotsman. If this is not an exclamation of a one-party state, what is it?
    That's brutal.

    "O wad some Power the giftie gie us To see oursels as ithers see us?"

    Well, there you are, Nicola.
    LOL, village idiots agree that random bollox is super. If you are going to make up mince try harder. Amazed that you think that garbage is good Sean, I thought better of you
    Chan e mise a th ’ann
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:



    Let's say that the Labour Party wants what is best for the country. It is either a deal to leave the EU or it is not to leave. It can't be both.

    I disagree. It's good government, if you have a referendum at all, to offer two options which you feel can be effected without disastrous results, especially if you're trying to deal with the consequences of an earlier referendum.

    Labour thinks that a No Deal outcome would be disastrous, so cannot in conscience be offered. Both remaining and leaving with a Norway-style deal are outcomes that we could live with, and given that Britain has gone down the referendum path, it's reasonable to offer that choice.
    They may be able to live with either as alternatives under current circumstances. But they want to be in government and in a position to decide for themselves. At that point they need to work out what is best for the country and pursue that.
    What's best for the country *might* be to get consensus/validation/legitimacy through a 2nd referendum for one option, even if it isn't necessarily the optimal choice. On the other hand, it might re-open all the division from before. Hard to tell.
  • Options
    Byronic said:

    If Labour's task was to move in as europhile a direction as possible while keeping open the option of still leaving the EU under a Labour government then its finalised policy offer delivers that. It's also non toxic to the more europhile opposition parties they would need in a hung parliament. Once you eliminate their first preferences Labour's policy is an attractive second preference. Other than anti second referendum ultras it also offers enough to keep nearly all Labour MPs on board for MV4.

    It's the political fudge that Harrods would sell you.

    Put it like that, and it sounds almost reasonable. The trouble is it cannot be reduced to a cute sentence, and can be easily ridiculed: "Unlike the useless evil Tories will fight for a better deal in Brussels, and then campaign against our own deal because it will be shit! Vote for us!"

    I mean, it's a tough sell, isn't it? And they still haven't found a way of rebutting this.
    "Having negotiated the best possible deal we can get on that house down the road I think on reflection it's better not to move."

    "Having negotiated the best possible departure deal we can get with the EU we think on reflection that it's better not to leave."

    Simple, perfectly understandable and very easy to relate to real life decisions.
This discussion has been closed.