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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mayor of London Siobhan Benita? Don’t rule it out
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mayor of London Siobhan Benita? Don’t rule it out
In the absence of big names and big characters, London politics has dropped off the media radar a bit. After the controversial Ken Livingstone and the future PM Boris Johnson, Sadiq Khan has been – spats with Donald Trump aside – a lower-profile mayor.
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Nothing is certain, and there are a fair number of their existing seats that are threatened. But I would be very surprised if they didn't make their current mark. Simply, there are a lot of seats (as in 12-20) in deepest Remainia where they would expect to do very well.
Jo Swinson is a more formidable opponent than Tim Farron. The coalition was an increasingly long time ago. And there's a good 20-25% of the electorate who are (to use HYUFD's phrase) Diehard Remainers.
Well, actually, if I lived in London I'd move somewhere else, but you know what I mean.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1175099584449785857
Really, if I was to write down all of the things I admired about Zac Goldsmith, it would be a very short list.
- name begins with a "Z" (which is kind of cool)
- errrr
Preach.
Boris says "picaninnies" once, which is apparently Very Bad, even though the people who pretend to be offended by it have to look it up just to know what it means, let alone how to spell it.
Lefties then say "picaninnies" fifty billion squillion times.
2. I'm not a "leftie"
- Brexit
- The Daily Telegraph
https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1175075315439341571
50 billion squillion plus 1.
Unless you define "leftie" as meaning "doesn't like racism", in which case I will point out there's plenty of racism on the left.
If you look through the headline voting numbers, and look at some of the underlyings, you see a few things:
1. The best "favourables" are for Warren, and she's made progress at every debate. (And neither Sanders nor Biden's net favourables are that good.)
2. Below the surface, Buttigieg is making ground. If you look at the "who would you consider voting for" numbers, then Buttigieg keeps climbing (now ahead of Harris and closing in on Sanders), while Biden and Sanders are slipping.
3. In one of the two Iowa polls this week, Buttigieg was just three points behind Biden and Sanders. In the other, while he trailed Biden meaningfully, he was well ahead of Sanders. He has the momentum in Iowa. He has the second best organisation there. If he wins, then he's in this race for the long-term. (Will he? I suspect he's a 20-25% shot, with Warren being a 50% one.)
But gangly.
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1174961681413238787?s=20
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1175026526141784064?s=20
Not that his allegiances were much in doubt
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/656427491196870656?s=20
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/970260218868322304?s=20
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/972177821589221382?s=20
That said, I agree it's possible, so my suggestion that the winner HAD to be one of top three was too simplistic.
I think you should stop digging.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160843673
Warren/Booker?
I think Mayor Pete is a terrible VP choice, and won't be picked for that role. Beto O'Rourke will be the Democrat's VP pick. He's white, not too young and popular in state with a lot of EVs.
And I still don't see Sanders path. He's not going to win in Iowa. He's likely to place fourth, in single digits poll-wise, and get somewhere around bugger-all delegates.
Which means he absolutely has to win New Hampshire. Biden can survive the loss of Iowa and New Hampshire, as South Carolina is likely to be a win for him. But Sanders can't come back from losing Iowa, NH and South Carolina. At that point the "progressive" vote is entirely with Warren.
One is a mad racist posh boy philanderer with the intellect of a stewed rabbit and a policy offering based on a bunch of stupid lies that intelligent people discarded decades ago.
One is nearly eighty years old.
And one is Boris Johnson.
Swinson looks really attractive compared to that lot.
I am all for encouraging people to register to vote - I did so very promptly when I recently moved.
But it should be done in an impartial way - if you are a public body like a University
And while we're at it, he's not bald even though his father was. That's not to be sniffed at.
So it would appear that rcs1000 was wrong - having a name starting with Z might well be the best thing about him but there are other strong points.
There's nothing wrong with being bald, you know!
For Siobhan to win it means pushing Bailey into third place and while the European election results might suggest that's possible, I'd argue the Conservative recovery under Johnson makes it less likely at the moment but with so much happening (or not happening), you'd be a fool to play this market at those odds at this time.
The other aspect is whether Conservatives could, given the massive divergence in positions on Brexit, give an LD candidate a second preference. It might be possible for Green voters but not BP or Conservatives so the second question becomes whether Siobhan can get close enough to Sadiq to overhaul him on second votes.
I might add, I was annoyed about that because I'd made a conscious decision to stay registered in Gloucestershire for a very large number of reasons. I didn't really move to Aber and think of it as home until about 2003.
Maybe he just looks it.
But you're right, it is a bit harsh on Clarke to be called Boris Johnson.
Hard to care that much about it though, but should this be the norm for Labour supporters then it's pretty clear they just want a one party state.
I think Corbyn will agree to a GE if everyone else agrees that only Labour can field candidates. He may still lose, but that's his best shot.
But in theory I could have done, due to the presumption of Jane Morgan.
The fighting will continue until Momentum have full control and the Labour Party has been completely taken over
...is the Boris Deal still getting closer by the hour?
Good socialists fight their enemies until they are beaten.
Then they fight each other for - well, pretty much forever, as far as I can see.
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1175128021185024000?s=21
Admittedly it may just be Juncker spilt his gin all over it by mistake so they didn't understand it, but at this moment it seems more likely Johnson is talking rubbish. Given he has a long history of talking rubbish, this indeed seems highly probable.
If brexit does happen on 31oct (who knows what that will be) might you be for rejoining?
Does anyone know what LD policy is post brexit?
'Rejoin' would be a fantastically hard card to play. Interesting though.
I could support this. But are senior Labour members making their own policies ?
And the answer's, 'yes.'