The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.
It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.
Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.
He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.
Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."
And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
The idea that Viktor Orban is going to be susceptible to coaching from anyone is laughable. He’s got more brains than Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings put together.
Whatever he does will be firmly in his own interests. I can’t imagine what the current British government could offer him that would make him malleable.
He would have made 26 other EU countries bow to his will. That is the opportunity the UK govt. is offering him.
"I wanted to end the Brexit farce. The other 26 wanted it to carry on indefinitely. In the words of the mighty Brian Clough "“We talked about it for 20 minutes and then we decided I was right”...."
Yes, a country who is a net recipient of EU funds is going to be the one who votes out a net contributor.
Portsmouth South is a good example of a seat where "tactical" voting could hand the seat to the Conservatives.
The Electoral Calculus polling average (with changes on GE2017) is: Conservative 32.3 (-11.2) Labour 25.4 (-15.6) Liberal Democrat 19.6 (+12) Brexit Party 12.7 (+12.7)
Applying these changes in support to the GE2017 result in Portsmouth South would give you a result of: Liberal Democrat 29.3 Conservatives 26.4 Labour 25.4 Brexit Party 12.7
Who is best placed to defeat the Tories? Various attempts to encourage people to vote tactically could end up with a result like this (with tactical vote change): Conservative 28.4 (+2) Labour 27.4 (+2) Liberal Democrat 27.3 (-2) Brexit Party 10.7 (-2) Tactical voting for Labour (and between the Leave parties) has handed the seat to the Tories. Tactical voting for the Liberal Democrats would see otherwise.
How can voters be sure which way is the best to vote? I don't know. I do know that using the 2017GE results as a guide, when the national vote has changed so dramatically, will often lead a tactical voter astray.
It’s the student voters that may do for Corbyn in Portsmouth South this time.
I’m not sure lightning will strike twice for him there.
Jennifer Arcuri’s laptop containing personal details from her time with Boris Johnson has been stolen. The American former model’s computer was snatched in Britain in the past 10 days.
Cummings may be a sociopath but there’s no doubt he’s very very bright.
I'll have to ask you what evidence you have for that. His record in education, Brexit, constitutional affairs is that of somebody with very limited intellect albeit boundless arrogance.
We should consider the possibility that the main outcome of the next election is... another election.
In the reasonably likely outcome that Labour loses seats but the Conservatives fall short of a majority (even with the DUP), then it is quite likely that there will be no PM with the confidence of the House:
1) Labour. The Lib Dems may demand a different compromise Labour MP is made PM to have their support - which would not be entirely unreasonable in the scenario where Corbyn achieved Labour's worst result in decades. It is also likely that Corbyn would refuse this request and so no Labour government can be formed that can survive a confidence vote.
2) Conservatives. There is almost zero chance of the Lib Dems supporting a Conservative government that is imitating the Brexit party. It wouldn't even matter if Johnson stepped aside; there simply isn't anyone moderate enough left on the front benches to win Lib Dem support given the main issue of the day.
Which means a second election in 2020 is quite possible. The key difference will be that lots of new marginals will have been created in the aftermath of the next election.
Yes, I agree. A divided ungovernable electorate is very likely to produce a divided ungovernable Parliament again, like 1974 revisited.
If people are demanding an answer to the Brexit conundrum, then ask them that question in a referendum, not a GE.
Domestic consumption. Tweaking the EU's nose plays well.
I can't claim to know much about Hungary's internal politics but if you've got 10 million people, and say 100,000 living in the UK, and they can vote in your elections (which I think they can?) you probably don't want to massively piss off that 1% in exchange for a momentary patriotic frisson for the others.
Jennifer Arcuri’s laptop containing personal details from her time with Boris Johnson has been stolen. The American former model’s computer was snatched in Britain in the past 10 days.
You would think a security expert would encrypt their hard drive...
The tin-foil mob will be saying how very convenient for the laptop containing the evidence to be stolen.
I think the probabilitiy that the laptop was stolen as a result of the scandal is high.
The tin foil hatters move in once we start to speculate who stole it and why.
Something else for some tin-foil pondering: Jennifer Arcuri is a cyberwossname expert, regularly crossing the Atlantic, who is still using the same laptop from seven to 10 years ago? Well, not this past week, obviously.
Jennifer Arcuri’s laptop containing personal details from her time with Boris Johnson has been stolen. The American former model’s computer was snatched in Britain in the past 10 days.
You would think a security expert would encrypt their hard drive...
The tin-foil mob will be saying how very convenient for the laptop containing the evidence to be stolen.
I think the probabilitiy that the laptop was stolen as a result of the scandal is high.
The tin foil hatters move in once we start to speculate who stole it and why.
Something else for some tin-foil pondering: Jennifer Arcuri is a cyberwossname expert, regularly crossing the Atlantic, who is still using the same laptop from seven to 10 years ago? Well, not this past week, obviously.
Well the new iCrap laptops are rubbish...i know plenty of people who refuse to upgrade.
PB weather report: pouring down with rain in Newcastle upon Tyne.
Metaphor for the state of the Good Friday agreement?
Worth noting is that rioting doesn't happen in the cold and rain. Rioting is a summer sport. Riotous Leavers and Remainers will stick to their keyboards inside in the warm.
Rioting is not popular in freezing weather, but it does not stop revolutions!
On a more serious point. It is well known that the number of crimes increases as the temperature increases*, and there are several factors driving this.
*NB I am not claiming that Moscow has a lower crime rate than Cairns. There are other large influences on how much crime there is. However within one city changes in temperature have a noticeable influence.
The numbers werent there because the foreign secretary resigned to say May's deal forces Britain to "remain in captivity", was "shameful", the PM is "on the verge of total surrender" and we had to "savour the full horror of this capitulation".
How on earth was it supposed to pass with that "support" from the leading Tory backbencher who had recently been Foreign Secretary.
Will he be ashamed? Will he lead us into captivity? Will he surrender?
Boris is shameless. You know this to be true. He will just say "I delivered Brexit. Job done."
I agree he is shameless, so the first question is moot. So you think he will surrender and lead us into captivity and are cheering him on to do so?
Like Boris, I would have voted for May's Shit Deal, as those who pay attention on here well know.
Cummings may be a sociopath but there’s no doubt he’s very very bright.
I'll have to ask you what evidence you have for that. His record in education, Brexit, constitutional affairs is that of somebody with very limited intellect albeit boundless arrogance.
Cummings is bright, but the error bright people make is to think that makes them superior.
I am increasingly convinced that Leave won despite Cummings rather than because of him. Without him it might well have been 55/45, less toxic and we would have been out by now.
Not on the new Electoral Calculus forecast this week which predicts a Tory majority of 12 ie almost identical to Cameron's 2015 majority just with Labour and the SNP a bit down and the LDs a bit up compared to 4 years ago.
The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.
It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.
Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.
He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.
Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."
And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
The idea that Viktor Orban is going to be susceptible to coaching from anyone is laughable. He’s got more brains than Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings put together.
Whatever he does will be firmly in his own interests. I can’t imagine what the current British government could offer him that would make him malleable.
He would have made 26 other EU countries bow to his will. That is the opportunity the UK govt. is offering him.
"I wanted to end the Brexit farce. The other 26 wanted it to carry on indefinitely. In the words of the mighty Brian Clough "“We talked about it for 20 minutes and then we decided I was right”...."
Yes, a country who is a net recipient of EU funds is going to be the one who votes out a net contributor.
We're leaving. Or else, we're not approving the budget where he gets those net funds.
Cummings may be a sociopath but there’s no doubt he’s very very bright.
I'll have to ask you what evidence you have for that. His record in education, Brexit, constitutional affairs is that of somebody with very limited intellect albeit boundless arrogance.
Nephew of a judge, son-in-law of a baronet, he has the typical arrogance of a member of the establishment elite.
The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.
It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.
Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.
He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.
Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."
And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
The idea that Viktor Orban is going to be susceptible to coaching from anyone is laughable. He’s got more brains than Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings put together.
Whatever he does will be firmly in his own interests. I can’t imagine what the current British government could offer him that would make him malleable.
He would have made 26 other EU countries bow to his will. That is the opportunity the UK govt. is offering him.
"I wanted to end the Brexit farce. The other 26 wanted it to carry on indefinitely. In the words of the mighty Brian Clough "“We talked about it for 20 minutes and then we decided I was right”...."
Yes, a country who is a net recipient of EU funds is going to be the one who votes out a net contributor.
We're leaving. Or else, we're not approving the budget where he gets those net funds.
Note too it is not just Labour Remainers going LD helping the Tories, according to the latest Opinium 21% of 2017 Labour Leavers and 37% of 2017 LD Leavers have now switched to the Tories and they are much more likely to be pro Boris than Labour Remainers now voting LD who might switch back in marginal Labour seats
Cummings may be a sociopath but there’s no doubt he’s very very bright.
I'll have to ask you what evidence you have for that. His record in education, Brexit, constitutional affairs is that of somebody with very limited intellect albeit boundless arrogance.
+1.
Sociapath is a serious mental illness. We should not be lightheartedly diagnosing "people we don't like" as such. Leave this kind of behaviour in the playground please.
'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "
Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.
People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.
Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.
Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.
This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.
Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.
David Cameron. Some guy!
The SNP tactics confuse me - surely their best bet is a no deal Brexit which turns out not to be the end of the world thus debunking scare stories about splitting unions ?
When the Uk thrives post Brexit (which is nailed on barring a Jezza govt) - the ground will be laid out for an easy SNP win.
Cummings may be a sociopath but there’s no doubt he’s very very bright.
I'll have to ask you what evidence you have for that. His record in education, Brexit, constitutional affairs is that of somebody with very limited intellect albeit boundless arrogance.
Cummings is bright, but the error bright people make is to think that makes them superior.
I am increasingly convinced that Leave won despite Cummings rather than because of him. Without him it might well have been 55/45, less toxic and we would have been out by now.
Again, you're asserting, but not proving.
Let me give an example. His education reforms, he boasts, were driven through in the teeth of the teaching profession and the DfE. The first, agreed. That's one reason why they've been a complete fiasco. The second, clearly wrong. What he has done is exactly what the DfE had been trying to achieve for years - highly centralised administrative control in Whitehall leading to a vast number of cushy jobs for civil servants in London, which they have changed the entire system to exploit for their own profit. You would I think be surprised to find how many chiefs of academy chains are ex-civil servants. Heck, even OFSTED is led by one. These people are useless. Spielmann doesn't even know basic safeguarding protocols. On her watch OFSTED is being treated with open contempt.
We are therefore left with two possibilities. One is that Cummings is lying. That is a tenable possibility. After all, he is the only man currently in public life more dishonest than Corbyn and Johnson. The other is that a bunch of very low-grade civil servants, most of whom in my experience lack such things as a basic command of written English, ran rings round him, because he is very stupid.
I'm actually going for (2). Because that makes more sense in light of his recent actions.
Cummings may be a sociopath but there’s no doubt he’s very very bright.
I'll have to ask you what evidence you have for that. His record in education, Brexit, constitutional affairs is that of somebody with very limited intellect albeit boundless arrogance.
He reminds me a bit of the physicists he admires so much (for avoidance of doubt, I'm a physicist.)
Physicists are great problem solvers. But often, the way we do it is by lopping off difficult bits of the problem. Sometimes that works well, sometimes it's absurd. There's a joke about a physicist who develops a model to predict horse races. Unfortunately, it only works for spherical horses running in empty space.
Dom C is good at "solving" problems in the short term- I don't think anyone else could have found a winning path for Vote Leave. But the path he found (especially the vagueness of the glorious future) made the next step insanely difficult. I don't get the impression he bothers thinking two steps ahead. He's smart, but not the sort of smart that's needed to run a government.
Cummings may be a sociopath but there’s no doubt he’s very very bright.
I'll have to ask you what evidence you have for that. His record in education, Brexit, constitutional affairs is that of somebody with very limited intellect albeit boundless arrogance.
+1.
Sociapath is a serious mental illness. We should not be lightheartedly diagnosing "people we don't like" as such. Leave this kind of behaviour in the playground please.
This is a really good point.. Yesterday's blog post pointed out the 1/3rd of tory leavers going LD but we are never as quick to point out the number of labour leavers switching to other parties.. LABOUR 2017 leave voters are not a huge group admittedly but they are another portion of labour support which is shifting..
I think there will be a lot more labour leavers switching to the brexit party than direct to the tories but provided they don't vote Labour that will help the con seat total significantly
We Lib Dems are not saying airily that we're aiming to win outright. We're saying it with determination because we genuinely believe we can do it. It's perfectly fine if others think we're delusional about this but, if we are delusional, we're both delusional and very determined at the same time.
Either way, talking about propping up either Con or Lab under their present leaderships won't win us net votes.
Will be best you can hope for, 4th party in Westminster propping up someone or inconsequential.
Does anyone really want to argue that if the EU gives us no more extensions beyond 31st October, we don't Brexit by 31st October?
If not, then we can all agree that is now Boris's battleground by which he delivers Brexit.
(By Brexit, I mean a resolution passed through the House of Commons by that date agreeing to whatever is on the table from the EU . There may well need to be a technical extension to get the various legislation passed in full, but to all intents and purpsoes, we have left the EU - and will need to rejoin ab initio if the LibDems win a majority at the next election.)
Cummings may be a sociopath but there’s no doubt he’s very very bright.
I'll have to ask you what evidence you have for that. His record in education, Brexit, constitutional affairs is that of somebody with very limited intellect albeit boundless arrogance.
+1.
Sociapath is a serious mental illness. We should not be lightheartedly diagnosing "people we don't like" as such. Leave this kind of behaviour in the playground please.
This is a really good point.. Yesterday's blog post pointed out the 1/3rd of tory leavers going LD but we are never as quick to point out the number of labour leavers switching to other parties.. LABOUR 2017 leave voters are not a huge group admittedly but they are another portion of labour support which is shifting..
I think there will be a lot more labour leavers switching to the brexit party than direct to the tories but provided they don't vote Labour that will help the con seat total significantly
Sorry was meant to be under HYUFD post quoted wrong pen in a hurry.. Oops
'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "
Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.
People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.
Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.
Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.
This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.
Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.
David Cameron. Some guy!
I sort of agree. A United Ireland should work easily enough,. The birth pains would be bloody though.
Scotland is tricky especially if it wishes to join the EU, protecting the EU single market will require a meaningful border on the Tweed. The last few years has shown it's not a easy thing to achieve. It's difficult to see how it will work.
Wales is hitched to England forever, no way out of it for them.
Antrim is the largest NI county, heavily Protestant and DUP voting and will always prefer staying in the UK to joining the Republic
I think all these projections of election results implicitly assume that a sizeable percentage (perhaps 40%) of the population will continue to believe that a No Deal Brexit won't cause any real practical problems for them. (As do a similar percentage of the posters here, apparently.)
Before the next election, either we'll have experienced No Deal in reality, or the nation will have spent five weeks debating its likely consequences in detail. If Boris Johnson resigns as prime minister in a few weeks time, we may also gain access to a lot more official information about what No Deal is likely to mean.
I think much of the population still isn't aware of what is likely to happen, or they still don't believe it. I think there will be a significant shift in attitudes if people do consider the issues properly. Admittedly that may not happen. But for any betting person, I think the probability of its happening should modify ideas about the likely result of the election.
I note that Martin Baxter has started publishing predictions for N Ireland. He used to simply publish “NI 18”, like nearly everyone else. Does anybody know:
A. When did Baxter start doing this? B. What on earth is he basing these NI predictions on?
Latest Electoral Calculus prediction:
Con 331 (+13) Lab 213 (-49) SNP 51 (+16) LD 33 (+21) DUP 9 (-1) SF 7 (nc) PC 3 (-1) All 1 (+1) Grn 1 (nc) NI oth 1 (nc) Bxp 0 (nc) UKIP 0 (nc)
Con Maj 12 seats
I believe NI polling is showing only 1 seat changing, Belfast South from DUP to Alliance
'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "
Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.
People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.
Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.
Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.
This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.
Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.
David Cameron. Some guy!
I sort of agree. A United Ireland should work easily enough,. The birth pains would be bloody though.
Scotland is tricky especially if it wishes to join the EU, protecting the EU single market will require a meaningful border on the Tweed. The last few years has shown it's not a easy thing to achieve. It's difficult to see how it will work.
Wales is hitched to England forever, no way out of it for them.
Scotland’s border with England is a lot easier to set up than Northern Ireland’s border with Ireland. It’s a lot shorter with far fewer crossings.
It is also much less contentious geographically, apart from Berwick.
To be equivalent to the Irish border, England would have to annex the Scottish Borders and put the border with Indy Scotland at the Antonine wall.
Which is not impossible given all the Scottish Borders seats are Tory held and the Scottish Borders was overwhelmingly No to Scottish independence in 2014
I note that Martin Baxter has started publishing predictions for N Ireland. He used to simply publish “NI 18”, like nearly everyone else. Does anybody know:
A. When did Baxter start doing this? B. What on earth is he basing these NI predictions on?
Latest Electoral Calculus prediction:
Con 331 (+13) Lab 213 (-49) SNP 51 (+16) LD 33 (+21) DUP 9 (-1) SF 7 (nc) PC 3 (-1) All 1 (+1) Grn 1 (nc) NI oth 1 (nc) Bxp 0 (nc) UKIP 0 (nc)
Con Maj 12 seats
I believe NI polling is showing only 1 seat changing, Belfast South from DUP to Alliance
Several others are thought to be very close on current polling.
Such a good thread by Nick. I think it pays and repays pondering on it. Rather than all the wishcasting from those who project their party political views, there's some very sound argument behind this.
I note that Martin Baxter has started publishing predictions for N Ireland. He used to simply publish “NI 18”, like nearly everyone else. Does anybody know:
A. When did Baxter start doing this? B. What on earth is he basing these NI predictions on?
Latest Electoral Calculus prediction:
Con 331 (+13) Lab 213 (-49) SNP 51 (+16) LD 33 (+21) DUP 9 (-1) SF 7 (nc) PC 3 (-1) All 1 (+1) Grn 1 (nc) NI oth 1 (nc) Bxp 0 (nc) UKIP 0 (nc)
Con Maj 12 seats
I believe NI polling is showing only 1 seat changing, Belfast South from DUP to Alliance
Yeah I think the NI results are easy to guess this time round.. One changing hands and an outside chance that Lady Hermon looses to the DUP but it's a very outside chance
Swinson has ruled out an arrangement with Corbyn under any circumstances.
I’m afraid I’m unconvinced by the rest of the tips. We could quote credibly get a loose Labour minority without Corbyn, whilst a Labour majority Government with him is out of the question.
Strong and stable with labour and SNP or chaos under the Tories?
Cummings may be a sociopath but there’s no doubt he’s very very bright.
I'll have to ask you what evidence you have for that. His record in education, Brexit, constitutional affairs is that of somebody with very limited intellect albeit boundless arrogance.
Cummings is bright, but the error bright people make is to think that makes them superior.
I am increasingly convinced that Leave won despite Cummings rather than because of him. Without him it might well have been 55/45, less toxic and we would have been out by now.
Wrong, it was Cummings who got Leave to 52%, had Farage and Leave.EU been the official campaign to Leave rather than Vote Leave it might have been 55% to 45% but to Remain not Leave
'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "
Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.
People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.
Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.
Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.
This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.
Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.
David Cameron. Some guy!
I sort of agree. A United Ireland should work easily enough,. The birth pains would be bloody though.
Scotland is tricky especially if it wishes to join the EU, protecting the EU single market will require a meaningful border on the Tweed. The last few years has shown it's not a easy thing to achieve. It's difficult to see how it will work.
Wales is hitched to England forever, no way out of it for them.
Scotland’s border with England is a lot easier to set up than Northern Ireland’s border with Ireland. It’s a lot shorter with far fewer crossings.
It is also much less contentious geographically, apart from Berwick.
To be equivalent to the Irish border, England would have to annex the Scottish Borders and put the border with Indy Scotland at the Antonine wall.
Which is not impossible given all the Scottish Borders seats are Tory held and the Scottish Borders was overwhelmingly No to Scottish independence in 2014
'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "
Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.
People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.
Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.
Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.
This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.
Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.
David Cameron. Some guy!
I sort of agree. A United Ireland should work easily enough,. The birth pains would be bloody though.
Scotland is tricky especially if it wishes to join the EU, protecting the EU single market will require a meaningful border on the Tweed. The last few years has shown it's not a easy thing to achieve. It's difficult to see how it will work.
Wales is hitched to England forever, no way out of it for them.
Scotland’s border with England is a lot easier to set up than Northern Ireland’s border with Ireland. It’s a lot shorter with far fewer crossings.
It is also much less contentious geographically, apart from Berwick.
To be equivalent to the Irish border, England would have to annex the Scottish Borders and put the border with Indy Scotland at the Antonine wall.
Which is not impossible given all the Scottish Borders seats are Tory held and the Scottish Borders was overwhelmingly No to Scottish independence in 2014
Have the English ever seen a country they haven't wanted to partition?
'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "
Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.
People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.
Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.
Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.
This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.
Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.
David Cameron. Some guy!
I sort of agree. A United Ireland should work easily enough,. The birth pains would be bloody though.
Scotland is tricky especially if it wishes to join the EU, protecting the EU single market will require a meaningful border on the Tweed. The last few years has shown it's not a easy thing to achieve. It's difficult to see how it will work.
Wales is hitched to England forever, no way out of it for them.
Scotland’s border with England is a lot easier to set up than Northern Ireland’s border with Ireland. It’s a lot shorter with far fewer crossings.
No recent history of violence is the main difference.
Anglo-Scottish border: 154 km Established: 973 (1,046 years old) Few roads and only a couple of railway lines
British border in Ireland: 499 km Established: 1921 (98 years old) Thousands of roads and tracks
(Of course, smugglers have historically used water routes, which abound in both cases.)
Does anyone really want to argue that if the EU gives us no more extensions beyond 31st October, we don't Brexit by 31st October?
If not, then we can all agree that is now Boris's battleground by which he delivers Brexit.
I don't think that follows. I mean, first, if Godzilla showed up and threatened to eat Kent unless Brexit was done by October 31st, Brexit would probably be done by October 31st, but that doesn't mean that Godzilla is Boris's battleground by which he delivers Brexit.
But also, I don't think the premise is right. In that situation parliament might pass the WA, it might vote to revoke or it might not get any of those done, it's hard to say.
'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "
Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.
People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.
Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.
Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.
This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.
Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.
David Cameron. Some guy!
I sort of agree. A United Ireland should work easily enough,. The birth pains would be bloody though.
Scotland is tricky especially if it wishes to join the EU, protecting the EU single market will require a meaningful border on the Tweed. The last few years has shown it's not a easy thing to achieve. It's difficult to see how it will work.
Wales is hitched to England forever, no way out of it for them.
In a democracy, there is always a way out. It is called the ballot box.
Labour are likely down six seats from the get go if we're talking about near inevitable seat losses in Scotland. I don't think a party on 250 odd seats could command a minority government, it'd be too bad a result.
Portsmouth South is a good example of a seat where "tactical" voting could hand the seat to the Conservatives.
The Electoral Calculus polling average (with changes on GE2017) is: Conservative 32.3 (-11.2) Labour 25.4 (-15.6) Liberal Democrat 19.6 (+12) Brexit Party 12.7 (+12.7)
Applying these changes in support to the GE2017 result in Portsmouth South would give you a result of: Liberal Democrat 29.3 Conservatives 26.4 Labour 25.4 Brexit Party 12.7
Who is best placed to defeat the Tories? Various attempts to encourage people to vote tactically could end up with a result like this (with tactical vote change): Conservative 28.4 (+2) Labour 27.4 (+2) Liberal Democrat 27.3 (-2) Brexit Party 10.7 (-2) Tactical voting for Labour (and between the Leave parties) has handed the seat to the Tories. Tactical voting for the Liberal Democrats would see otherwise.
How can voters be sure which way is the best to vote? I don't know. I do know that using the 2017GE results as a guide, when the national vote has changed so dramatically, will often lead a tactical voter astray.
It’s the student voters that may do for Corbyn in Portsmouth South this time.
I’m not sure lightning will strike twice for him there.
My model, which is generally quite favourable to Labour, has it as a Lib Dem gain.
Leamington’s Labour MP, Matt Western (recently reselected) has a majority of just under 1,000. It will not take many Labour to LD switchers for him to lose. It’s a similar story elsewhere. I suspect it’s seats like this one that will win the Tories their majority - especially as there is also going to be a relatively strong (ie, a few thousand) pro-Corbyn vote in many seats the LDs are targeting. The Electoral Calculus scenario looks about right to me. There’ll be a lot of LD near misses.
'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "
Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.
People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.
Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.
Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.
This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.
Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.
David Cameron. Some guy!
The SNP tactics confuse me - surely their best bet is a no deal Brexit which turns out not to be the end of the world thus debunking scare stories about splitting unions ?
When the Uk thrives post Brexit (which is nailed on barring a Jezza govt) - the ground will be laid out for an easy SNP win.
I don’t really believe that you find the SNP strategy confusing. What you mean is that you disagree with the end objective. Which is your prerogative. But don’t act dafter than you are.
Does anyone really want to argue that if the EU gives us no more extensions beyond 31st October, we don't Brexit by 31st October?
If not, then we can all agree that is now Boris's battleground by which he delivers Brexit.
(By Brexit, I mean a resolution passed through the House of Commons by that date agreeing to whatever is on the table from the EU . There may well need to be a technical extension to get the various legislation passed in full, but to all intents and purpsoes, we have left the EU - and will need to rejoin ab initio if the LibDems win a majority at the next election.)
'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "
Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.
People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.
Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.
Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.
This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.
Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.
David Cameron. Some guy!
I sort of agree. A United Ireland should work easily enough,. The birth pains would be bloody though.
Scotland is tricky especially if it wishes to join the EU, protecting the EU single market will require a meaningful border on the Tweed. The last few years has shown it's not a easy thing to achieve. It's difficult to see how it will work.
Wales is hitched to England forever, no way out of it for them.
Scotland’s border with England is a lot easier to set up than Northern Ireland’s border with Ireland. It’s a lot shorter with far fewer crossings.
It is also much less contentious geographically, apart from Berwick.
To be equivalent to the Irish border, England would have to annex the Scottish Borders and put the border with Indy Scotland at the Antonine wall.
Which is not impossible given all the Scottish Borders seats are Tory held and the Scottish Borders was overwhelmingly No to Scottish independence in 2014
Fascinating insight into Tory thinking. Next step: partition of Scotland.
He’s clearly right, tho. Remainers perceive him as the politician most likely to deliver Brexit. So they are all trying to bring him down. It’s quite a spectacle.
He’s clearly right, tho. Remainers perceive him as the politician most likely to deliver Brexit. So they are all trying to bring him down. It’s quite a spectacle.
Maybe it’s because he’s a sex pest.
I don’t remember people coming out of the woodwork to say Theresa May goosed them behind the rood screen.
He’s clearly right, tho. Remainers perceive him as the politician most likely to deliver Brexit. So they are all trying to bring him down. It’s quite a spectacle.
I've not noticed any reference to the incredible interference of the EU with British industry announced on BBC this morning. Washing machines and similar devices must be easier to repair. How are British plumbers and washing machine technicians supposed to make a living? What's more spare parts will have to be available for 10 years. What harm will this do to British retailers of such appliances?
Cummings may be a sociopath but there’s no doubt he’s very very bright.
I'll have to ask you what evidence you have for that. His record in education, Brexit, constitutional affairs is that of somebody with very limited intellect albeit boundless arrogance.
Cummings is bright, but the error bright people make is to think that makes them superior.
I am increasingly convinced that Leave won despite Cummings rather than because of him. Without him it might well have been 55/45, less toxic and we would have been out by now.
Again, you're asserting, but not proving.
Let me give an example. His education reforms, he boasts, were driven through in the teeth of the teaching profession and the DfE. The first, agreed. That's one reason why they've been a complete fiasco. The second, clearly wrong. What he has done is exactly what the DfE had been trying to achieve for years - highly centralised administrative control in Whitehall leading to a vast number of cushy jobs for civil servants in London, which they have changed the entire system to exploit for their own profit. You would I think be surprised to find how many chiefs of academy chains are ex-civil servants. Heck, even OFSTED is led by one. These people are useless. Spielmann doesn't even know basic safeguarding protocols. On her watch OFSTED is being treated with open contempt.
We are therefore left with two possibilities. One is that Cummings is lying. That is a tenable possibility. After all, he is the only man currently in public life more dishonest than Corbyn and Johnson. The other is that a bunch of very low-grade civil servants, most of whom in my experience lack such things as a basic command of written English, ran rings round him, because he is very stupid.
I'm actually going for (2). Because that makes more sense in light of his recent actions.
Have a good morning.
That's a bit harsh on civil servants. I'd imagine those dealing with Cummings were quite senior and in my experience such people are pretty bright... on a par with good teachers and other professionals.
Much more likely is that Cummings is very bright but severely lacking in emotional intelligence (EQ).
Labour are likely down six seats from the get go if we're talking about near inevitable seat losses in Scotland. I don't think a party on 250 odd seats could command a minority government, it'd be too bad a result.
Stefan Löfven (Social Democrat) is prime minister of Sweden with only 100 seats of 349 seats, ie. 28.7%.
Labour with 250 seats out of 643 seats would be 38.9%.
The Clown is not the only shameless politician in the world.
This red-meat-and-bacon-are-ok story is just amazing. The biggest study of its kind ever done. And it chucks 40 years of health advice in the pate maker.
I've not noticed any reference to the incredible interference of the EU with British industry announced on BBC this morning. Washing machines and similar devices must be easier to repair. How are British plumbers and washing machine technicians supposed to make a living? What's more spare parts will have to be available for 10 years. What harm will this do to British retailers of such appliances?
The Brits will fight on the landing strips for pisspoor plumbing.
OT. Nick Robinson has really blossomed since the unlistentoable John Humphrys left the stage. His soliloqui 'What happened to Boriis Johnson" is very good indeed.
".... From being the party's comedy act and reaching parts other politicians couldn't after just 10 weeks in Downing Street he's become angry, confrontational, divisive....he's lost every vote in parliament ..... lost in the supreme court.... lost the backing of his brother..the support of his sister and the backing of the one cabinet minister he called a friend.....of curtailing democracy... misleading the Queen and accused of using language-stirring up something rarely seen in this country-political violence.......'
This red-meat-and-bacon-are-ok story is just amazing. The biggest study of its kind ever done. And it chucks 40 years of health advice in the pate maker.
The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.
It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.
Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.
He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.
Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."
And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
The idea that Viktor Orban is going to be susceptible to coaching from anyone is laughable. He’s got more brains than Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings put together.
Whatever he does will be firmly in his own interests. I can’t imagine what the current British government could offer him that would make him malleable.
He would have made 26 other EU countries bow to his will. That is the opportunity the UK govt. is offering him.
"I wanted to end the Brexit farce. The other 26 wanted it to carry on indefinitely. In the words of the mighty Brian Clough "“We talked about it for 20 minutes and then we decided I was right”...."
And that benefits Viktor Orbán how? He’s entirely happy to stand up to the rest of the EU when it suits him. He won’t open a new front arbitrarily.
Orban will not save us, he needs that political capital for literally anything else.
The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.
It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.
Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.
He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.
Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."
And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
The idea that Viktor Orban is going to be susceptible to coaching from anyone is laughable. He’s got more brains than Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings put together.
Whatever he does will be firmly in his own interests. I can’t imagine what the current British government could offer him that would make him malleable.
He would have made 26 other EU countries bow to his will. That is the opportunity the UK govt. is offering him.
"I wanted to end the Brexit farce. The other 26 wanted it to carry on indefinitely. In the words of the mighty Brian Clough "“We talked about it for 20 minutes and then we decided I was right”...."
And that benefits Viktor Orbán how? He’s entirely happy to stand up to the rest of the EU when it suits him. He won’t open a new front arbitrarily.
Orban will not save us, he needs that political capital for literally anything else.
Cummings may be a sociopath but there’s no doubt he’s very very bright.
I'll have to ask you what evidence you have for that. His record in education, Brexit, constitutional affairs is that of somebody with very limited intellect albeit boundless arrogance.
Typical Tory then. Self-awareness is not their strongest card.
This red-meat-and-bacon-are-ok story is just amazing. The biggest study of its kind ever done. And it chucks 40 years of health advice in the pate maker.
Does anyone do any polling about views of SNP south of the border? I'm wondering how many English and Welsh voters view the SNP positively now? If the SNP were seen as a moderating force on Corbynism, I could imagine a Tory advertising campaign of Corbyn in Sturgeon's pocket massively backfiring.
This red-meat-and-bacon-are-ok story is just amazing. The biggest study of its kind ever done. And it chucks 40 years of health advice in the pate maker.
A lot of health stories are driven by a poor understanding of maths. "Eating avocado increases your risk of contracting green monkey fever by 100%, study finds". But if that is an increase from 1 per 100 million to 2 per 100 million, that's a risk most of us could live with.
Cut down the booze, cut out the fags and keep your weight down, and you're doing most of what needs to be done. After that, your best bet is to concentrate on following the Green Cross Code.
Does anyone do any polling about views of SNP south of the border? I'm wondering how many English and Welsh voters view the SNP positively now? If the SNP were seen as a moderating force on Corbynism, I could imagine a Tory advertising campaign of Corbyn in Sturgeon's pocket massively backfiring.
Corbyn in Swinson's pocket maybe not in Sturgeon's who is seen as an anti English Scottish nationalist and every poll anyway has Swinson as Kingmaker not Sturgeon now if the Tories do not win a majority
This red-meat-and-bacon-are-ok story is just amazing. The biggest study of its kind ever done. And it chucks 40 years of health advice in the pate maker.
This red-meat-and-bacon-are-ok story is just amazing. The biggest study of its kind ever done. And it chucks 40 years of health advice in the pate maker.
The Spanish smoke a lot, subsist entirely on red meat, and get no sleep.
Yet they enjoy the best longevity in Europe.
The health benefits of a siesta are clear.
Sunshine helps a lot too. Fantastic fresh fruit and veg. Plenty of good old-fashioned sex. Less obsessed with screen-time. Tight families and communities. Less obesity and inactivity.
Does anyone do any polling about views of SNP south of the border? I'm wondering how many English and Welsh voters view the SNP positively now? If the SNP were seen as a moderating force on Corbynism, I could imagine a Tory advertising campaign of Corbyn in Sturgeon's pocket massively backfiring.
Agreed, I think the SNP is quite well viewed in much of English Remainerdom.
This red-meat-and-bacon-are-ok story is just amazing. The biggest study of its kind ever done. And it chucks 40 years of health advice in the pate maker.
The Spanish smoke a lot, subsist entirely on red meat, and get no sleep.
Yet they enjoy the best longevity in Europe.
Well to be honest an awful lot of fish and salad is consumed by the Spanish but they don’t binge drink. The climate is probably the main reason and they are into sport in a big way.
Does anyone do any polling about views of SNP south of the border? I'm wondering how many English and Welsh voters view the SNP positively now? If the SNP were seen as a moderating force on Corbynism, I could imagine a Tory advertising campaign of Corbyn in Sturgeon's pocket massively backfiring.
Corbyn in Swinson's pocket maybe not in Sturgeon's who is seen as an anti English Scottish nationalist and every poll anyway has Swinson as Kingmaker not Sturgeon now if the Tories do not win a majority
I mean, the SNP have made more noises in the direction of actually being willing to work with Corbyn, unlike Swinson. Also, I know the polling of Swinson / LDs in this country, but I don't know how the SNP are viewed, hence my asking.
And if the LDs amd Tory rebels make Corbyn PM in return for EUref2 that likely sees an even bigger Leave win, however I cannot see them making him PM and many Labour MPs from Leave seats would still oppose EUref2
Boris’s plan does indeed seem to be to bring back the Withdrawal Agreement.
Will the DUP fall for it?
Boris will only brimg back the Withdrawal Agreement if the EU agree to remove the backstop or he wins a Tory majority and can go for a NI only backstop
This red-meat-and-bacon-are-ok story is just amazing. The biggest study of its kind ever done. And it chucks 40 years of health advice in the pate maker.
It is more subtle than that, surely, as it reanalyses the same studies, comes to more or less the same conclusions but then differs as to whether it matters very much or not.
'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "
Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.
People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.
Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.
Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.
This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.
Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.
David Cameron. Some guy!
I sort of agree. A United Ireland should work easily enough,. The birth pains would be bloody though.
Scotland is tricky especially if it wishes to join the EU, protecting the EU single market will require a meaningful border on the Tweed. The last few years has shown it's not a easy thing to achieve. It's difficult to see how it will work.
Wales is hitched to England forever, no way out of it for them.
Scotland’s border with England is a lot easier to set up than Northern Ireland’s border with Ireland. It’s a lot shorter with far fewer crossings.
It is also much less contentious geographically, apart from Berwick.
To be equivalent to the Irish border, England would have to annex the Scottish Borders and put the border with Indy Scotland at the Antonine wall.
Which is not impossible given all the Scottish Borders seats are Tory held and the Scottish Borders was overwhelmingly No to Scottish independence in 2014
Fascinating insight into Tory thinking. Next step: partition of Scotland.
Evil is the only word for it.
In which case evil is also the word for those seeking to break up the UK
Does anyone do any polling about views of SNP south of the border? I'm wondering how many English and Welsh voters view the SNP positively now? If the SNP were seen as a moderating force on Corbynism, I could imagine a Tory advertising campaign of Corbyn in Sturgeon's pocket massively backfiring.
Nicola chastising errant Corbyn in a rottweiller muzzle, on an extremely short lead, with his balls chopped off, and docked tail, would be more apt.
Does anyone do any polling about views of SNP south of the border? I'm wondering how many English and Welsh voters view the SNP positively now? If the SNP were seen as a moderating force on Corbynism, I could imagine a Tory advertising campaign of Corbyn in Sturgeon's pocket massively backfiring.
Nicola chastising errant Corbyn in a rottweiller muzzle, on an extremely short lead, with his balls chopped off, and docked tail, would be more apt.
Now this is interesting. Kirstene Hair, who is the closest thing possible to an apolitical MP, has directly criticised the Prime Minister for his use of language:
Roger Godsiff (Birmingham Hall Green) and Virendra Sharma (Ealing Southall) have lost the first trigger ballot meetings by landslides. Looks like both will be triggered. Unsurprisingly.
'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "
Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.
People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.
Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.
Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.
This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.
Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.
David Cameron. Some guy!
I sort of agree. A United Ireland should work easily enough,. The birth pains would be bloody though.
Scotland is tricky especially if it wishes to join the EU, protecting the EU single market will require a meaningful border on the Tweed. The last few years has shown it's not a easy thing to achieve. It's difficult to see how it will work.
Wales is hitched to England forever, no way out of it for them.
Scotland’s border with England is a lot easier to set up than Northern Ireland’s border with Ireland. It’s a lot shorter with far fewer crossings.
It is also much less contentious geographically, apart from Berwick.
To be equivalent to the Irish border, England would have to annex the Scottish Borders and put the border with Indy Scotland at the Antonine wall.
Which is not impossible given all the Scottish Borders seats are Tory held and the Scottish Borders was overwhelmingly No to Scottish independence in 2014
Fascinating insight into Tory thinking. Next step: partition of Scotland.
Evil is the only word for it.
In which case evil is also the word for those seeking to break up the UK
Evil is certainly the word for those seeking to break up the EU, the most successful peace enterprise in world history.
Comments
I’m not sure lightning will strike twice for him there.
The tin foil hatters move in once we start to speculate who stole it and why.
If people are demanding an answer to the Brexit conundrum, then ask them that question in a referendum, not a GE.
On a more serious point. It is well known that the number of crimes increases as the temperature increases*, and there are several factors driving this.
*NB I am not claiming that Moscow has a lower crime rate than Cairns. There are other large influences on how much crime there is. However within one city changes in temperature have a noticeable influence.
I am increasingly convinced that Leave won despite Cummings rather than because of him. Without him it might well have been 55/45, less toxic and we would have been out by now.
Tories 331
Labour 213
SNP 51
LDs 33
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Sociapath is a serious mental illness. We should not be lightheartedly diagnosing "people we don't like" as such. Leave this kind of behaviour in the playground please.
Let me give an example. His education reforms, he boasts, were driven through in the teeth of the teaching profession and the DfE. The first, agreed. That's one reason why they've been a complete fiasco. The second, clearly wrong. What he has done is exactly what the DfE had been trying to achieve for years - highly centralised administrative control in Whitehall leading to a vast number of cushy jobs for civil servants in London, which they have changed the entire system to exploit for their own profit. You would I think be surprised to find how many chiefs of academy chains are ex-civil servants. Heck, even OFSTED is led by one. These people are useless. Spielmann doesn't even know basic safeguarding protocols. On her watch OFSTED is being treated with open contempt.
We are therefore left with two possibilities. One is that Cummings is lying. That is a tenable possibility. After all, he is the only man currently in public life more dishonest than Corbyn and Johnson. The other is that a bunch of very low-grade civil servants, most of whom in my experience lack such things as a basic command of written English, ran rings round him, because he is very stupid.
I'm actually going for (2). Because that makes more sense in light of his recent actions.
Have a good morning.
Physicists are great problem solvers. But often, the way we do it is by lopping off difficult bits of the problem. Sometimes that works well, sometimes it's absurd. There's a joke about a physicist who develops a model to predict horse races. Unfortunately, it only works for spherical horses running in empty space.
Dom C is good at "solving" problems in the short term- I don't think anyone else could have found a winning path for Vote Leave. But the path he found (especially the vagueness of the glorious future) made the next step insanely difficult. I don't get the impression he bothers thinking two steps ahead. He's smart, but not the sort of smart that's needed to run a government.
I think there will be a lot more labour leavers switching to the brexit party than direct to the tories but provided they don't vote Labour that will help the con seat total significantly
If not, then we can all agree that is now Boris's battleground by which he delivers Brexit.
(By Brexit, I mean a resolution passed through the House of Commons by that date agreeing to whatever is on the table from the EU . There may well need to be a technical extension to get the various legislation passed in full, but to all intents and purpsoes, we have left the EU - and will need to rejoin ab initio if the LibDems win a majority at the next election.)
https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1178930242821513216
Before the next election, either we'll have experienced No Deal in reality, or the nation will have spent five weeks debating its likely consequences in detail. If Boris Johnson resigns as prime minister in a few weeks time, we may also gain access to a lot more official information about what No Deal is likely to mean.
I think much of the population still isn't aware of what is likely to happen, or they still don't believe it. I think there will be a significant shift in attitudes if people do consider the issues properly. Admittedly that may not happen. But for any betting person, I think the probability of its happening should modify ideas about the likely result of the election.
Always bet with your head not your heart.
Anglo-Scottish border:
154 km
Established: 973 (1,046 years old)
Few roads and only a couple of railway lines
British border in Ireland:
499 km
Established: 1921 (98 years old)
Thousands of roads and tracks
(Of course, smugglers have historically used water routes, which abound in both cases.)
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1178760616556797952
But also, I don't think the premise is right. In that situation parliament might pass the WA, it might vote to revoke or it might not get any of those done, it's hard to say.
It's not good to be seen as a bully, but still better than being a victim.
I must say the quality of threaders on PB makes it worth coming to every day...
... even without the added bonus for me of being able to read my own wonderful posts!
Evil is the only word for it.
I don’t remember people coming out of the woodwork to say Theresa May goosed them behind the rood screen.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1178934401507442688?s=20
What's more spare parts will have to be available for 10 years. What harm will this do to British retailers of such appliances?
Much more likely is that Cummings is very bright but severely lacking in emotional intelligence (EQ).
Labour with 250 seats out of 643 seats would be 38.9%.
The Clown is not the only shameless politician in the world.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7520483/You-DONT-need-cut-red-meat-scientists-claim-huge-controversial-study.html?ito=link_share_article-factbox
*orders more jamon iberico de bellota*
".... From being the party's comedy act and reaching parts other politicians couldn't after just 10 weeks in Downing Street he's become angry, confrontational, divisive....he's lost every vote in parliament ..... lost in the supreme court.... lost the backing of his brother..the support of his sister and the backing of the one cabinet minister he called a friend.....of curtailing democracy... misleading the Queen and accused of using language-stirring up something rarely seen in this country-political violence.......'
The Spanish smoke a lot, subsist entirely on red meat, and get no sleep.
Yet they enjoy the best longevity in Europe.
https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1169526428519608320
Best prices - year of next GE
2020 3/1
2021 50/1
Will the DUP fall for it?
(In any event, if the EU refused an extension the Rebel Alliance would still have the nuclear option of Revoke to avoid No Deal chaos.)
Cut down the booze, cut out the fags and keep your weight down, and you're doing most of what needs to be done. After that, your best bet is to concentrate on following the Green Cross Code.
Longevity and happiness is not rocket science.
There will always be an EU Deal on the table. And Kinnock and his 30 or so MPs will always take that Deal over Revoke.
https://twitter.com/C_RMacCallum/status/1178792034754318337