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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    But the opposition have ruled out tabling such a motion. What is Boris supposed to do "we are giving time here for a motion from the opposition they've said they're not voting for" "we are not putting this motion forward, we haven't called it" *tumbleweed*

    May provided time for a confidence vote only after Corbyn called for one, not beforehand.

    BoZo said he would make time for the SNP to call one.

    Corbyn is irrelevant.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also hope for this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

    If Boris extends A50 in line with the Benn Act what possible excuse will Labour have to deny an election next (presumably Lib-Dem and SNP will be up for it) ?
    If A50 is extended I'm not sure the Tories will want an election - Farage will be in full betrayal mode and Johnson's "do or die" rhetoric will be thrown back at him.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,767
    Yorkcity said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also hope for this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

    If Boris extends A50 in line with the Benn Act what possible excuse will Labour have to deny an election next (presumably Lib-Dem and SNP will be up for it) ?
    Because they do not think they will do very well.
    Would you go into a fight if you knew , you would get badly beaten ?
    They were up for it in 2017? It's hard to know what's changed! :D
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,767

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also hope for this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

    If Boris extends A50 in line with the Benn Act what possible excuse will Labour have to deny an election next (presumably Lib-Dem and SNP will be up for it) ?
    If A50 is extended I'm not sure the Tories will want an election - Farage will be in full betrayal mode and Johnson's "do or die" rhetoric will be thrown back at him.
    I suspect they've focused grouped the hell out of this and they know where the public will be laying the blame after the extension (and it won't be a Boris's door)
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    From the thread:
    "Because of the FTPA and the parliamentary arithmetic this is the first time ever in British political history that it is the the opposition leader who has the power to choose whether there should be an early General Election..."

    I agree, but it understates the position. It should read "..it is the opposition leader ALONE who has the power to choose whether there should be an early General Election..."

    The FTPA has turned out to be an utterly bonkers piece of legislation.

    It's not the legislation that's the problem. It's the cretinous approach by a PM who acts like he has a 100 seat majority when he doesn't.
    Parliament decides whether there's a general election. The PM could VONC his own government or make time in the Commons for other parties to bring such a vote as Theresa May allowed less than a year ago.
    Boris has choices here: to get the election he has to run the gauntlet of a VONC. He isn't pursuing the VONC so it makes you wonder what he's afraid of. AS far as I can tell it's one or more of the following:
    - he's afraid of the election itself
    - he's afraid the parliament can form a stable government without him
    - he's afraid that his own party will turn against him

    I think the third one is a strong candidate, but the the first two are also weighing on him.
    Doesn't he look tired?
    What are you talking about? The opposition hasn't tabled a VONC. You can't make time for the parties to bring such a vote until they table one.
    You really are thick.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,919
    moonshine said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Boris’s deal has the DUP and most of the Spartans on board - should put it to the house...

    Put it to the house immediately, pass it, show the EU they have a good to go solution and let them force no deal
    Why do you think it would pass the House of Commons?
    Arithmetic would suggest it would be closer than any or May’s attempts - possibly even pass.

    Would certainly pass if the Benn act is debunked in court.
    The relevant question is who voted for the Brady amendment that would now refuse to vote for an improved deal (and vice versa)? Brady passed by 317 to 301 last time.

    The Tory rebels that voted against Brady were:

    Allen
    Bebb
    Clarke
    Grieve
    Lee
    Morris
    Soubry
    Wallaston

    Gyimah, Greening, Jo Johnson, Sandbach, Laing all abstained, as did Redwood.

    You can certainly add Gyimah to the Against column now. Sandback might be tempted by the return of the whip. I doubt Greening and Jo would vote against at this point and might just abstain again. Don't know anything about Laing. Redwood might be persuaded to vote For this time rather than abstain. So roughly where you were on that group.

    Of the rest of the Tory 21, they all previously voted for Brady. Some probably only did so to keep ministerial / cabinet jobs and would rather rot than give Boris a win. But I do wonder how many of the remaining 16 would be willing to complete the kamikaze of their careers, when there's a deal to vote for and the prospect of getting the whip back. Gauke, Soames, Letwin, Vaizey, Stewart etc...

    Labour rebels voting For were:

    Austin
    Barron
    Fitzpatrick
    Godsiff
    Hoey
    Mann
    Stringer

    With a further 8 Labour abstaining. The Labour side would likely tip more in favour of the Deal given the likes of Flint would probably go from Abstain to Yes and Kinnock a flip from No to Yes.

    I'm not persuaded that the vote would even be that close, I think if the Irish go for it then it clears the Commons.

    Big IF there. A far bigger IF than you make it out to be.
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    This cant be true as @HYUFD has told me time and time again that if BoZo extends then the Tories will collapse in the polls.
    Boris won't extend, a civil servant will
    Oh well in that case the electorate definitely won't hold it against him. Maybe he'll cross his fingers behind his back for added political effect
    The electorate are not idiots and will hold it against the MPs who forced the extension.
    You don't think the electorate will mind that Boris made a promise over and over which was obviously impossible to keep, then failed to keep it?
    No. I think the Brexit-supporting electorate will see that the opposition MPs are the obstructionists, that Boris is on their side, that Labour and the Lib Dems want to Remain and that only a Tory victory will allow their Brexit vote to be honoured.

    And they'd be right.
    It must represent the lesser of two evils for him. He and his government could resign. The plus side is he is sticking to the courage of his convictions, he will not ask for an extension at any cost. The negative side is he's effectively saying he's beat, he can't do it, he's out of options, he can't deliver what he said.

    If he did that he could still win the subsequent election, but the optics of it are probably worse than shouting out "I was forced! The courts and the parliament is against me!"

    I'm sure neither option especially appeals to him but I can see extending and then fighting an election on that basis as the least bad option.
    Absolutely, resigning will be the worst possible option. Plus the optics of Corbyn entering Downing Street will boost Labour support, its a terrible, terrible idea.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,243
    eek said:

    moonshine said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Boris’s deal has the DUP and most of the Spartans on board - should put it to the house...

    Put it to the house immediately, pass it, show the EU they have a good to go solution and let them force no deal
    Why do you think it would pass the House of Commons?
    Arithmetic would suggest it would be closer than any or May’s attempts - possibly even pass.

    Would certainly pass if the Benn act is debunked in court.
    The relevant question is who voted for the Brady amendment that would now refuse to vote for an improved deal (and vice versa)? Brady passed by 317 to 301 last time.

    The Tory rebels that voted against Brady were:

    Allen
    Bebb
    Clarke
    Grieve
    Lee
    Morris
    Soubry
    Wallaston

    Gyimah, Greening, Jo Johnson, Sandbach, Laing all abstained, as did Redwood.

    You can certainly add Gyimah to the Against column now. Sandback might be tempted by the return of the whip. I doubt Greening and Jo would vote against at this point and might just abstain again. Don't know anything about Laing. Redwood might be persuaded to vote For this time rather than abstain. So roughly where you were on that group.

    Of the rest of the Tory 21, they all previously voted for Brady. Some probably only did so to keep ministerial / cabinet jobs and would rather rot than give Boris a win. But I do wonder how many of the remaining 16 would be willing to complete the kamikaze of their careers, when there's a deal to vote for and the prospect of getting the whip back. Gauke, Soames, Letwin, Vaizey, Stewart etc...

    Labour rebels voting For were:

    Austin
    Barron
    Fitzpatrick
    Godsiff
    Hoey
    Mann
    Stringer

    With a further 8 Labour abstaining. The Labour side would likely tip more in favour of the Deal given the likes of Flint would probably go from Abstain to Yes and Kinnock a flip from No to Yes.

    I'm not persuaded that the vote would even be that close, I think if the Irish go for it then it clears the Commons.

    Big IF there. A far bigger IF than you make it out to be.
    Sorry if I misled. I don't think there will be an agreement with Europe/Ireland this side of an election. But if there was (along roughly the proposed lines), I just think it would sail through the Commons.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    BoZo


  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also hope for this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

    If Boris extends A50 in line with the Benn Act what possible excuse will Labour have to deny an election next (presumably Lib-Dem and SNP will be up for it) ?
    If A50 is extended I'm not sure the Tories will want an election - Farage will be in full betrayal mode and Johnson's "do or die" rhetoric will be thrown back at him.
    I suspect they've focused grouped the hell out of this and they know where the public will be laying the blame after the extension (and it won't be a Boris's door)
    Indeed, Boris will be on full betrayal mode railing against the MPs who are betraying the referendum vote.

    Farage will just be a bystander saying "I agree with Boris".
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also hope for this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

    If Boris extends A50 in line with the Benn Act what possible excuse will Labour have to deny an election next (presumably Lib-Dem and SNP will be up for it) ?
    If A50 is extended I'm not sure the Tories will want an election - Farage will be in full betrayal mode and Johnson's "do or die" rhetoric will be thrown back at him.
    I suspect they've focused grouped the hell out of this and they know where the public will be laying the blame after the extension (and it won't be a Boris's door)
    Indeed, Boris will be on full betrayal mode railing against the MPs who are betraying the referendum vote.

    Farage will just be a bystander saying "I agree with Boris".
    LMFAO. Yeah, if there's one thing Farage proved last spring after May extended, it's that he's really willing to sacrifice his own party's fortunes in order to bail out a Tory PM.
  • Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also hope for this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

    If Boris extends A50 in line with the Benn Act what possible excuse will Labour have to deny an election next (presumably Lib-Dem and SNP will be up for it) ?
    If A50 is extended I'm not sure the Tories will want an election - Farage will be in full betrayal mode and Johnson's "do or die" rhetoric will be thrown back at him.
    I suspect they've focused grouped the hell out of this and they know where the public will be laying the blame after the extension (and it won't be a Boris's door)
    Indeed, Boris will be on full betrayal mode railing against the MPs who are betraying the referendum vote.

    Farage will just be a bystander saying "I agree with Boris".
    LMFAO. Yeah, if there's one thing Farage proved last spring after May extended, it's that he's really willing to sacrifice his own party's fortunes in order to bail out a Tory PM.
    Have you forgotten the fact that May chose to extend? She voluntarily did it, it wasn't forced upon her? When Parliament voted to extend she was in the Aye lobby not the Nay one?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Scott_P said:
    That doesn’t make sense if you read the article or am I missing something?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,184
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another New Hampshire poll showing Warren in the lead.

    Granted it's still some ways off, but if Warren takes Iowa and New Hampshire (with Saunders third), and is runner up to Biden in S Carolina, does Saunders drop out at that point ?

    Sanders then endorses Warren, making Warren effectively the nominee and the most left liberal Democratic candidate for president since George McGovern in 1972 against Nixon and we all know how that went for the Democrats! McGovern also beat a centrist former VP in the 1972 Democratic primary, Hubert Humphrey, who would have given Nixon a tighter race
    Trump's Watergate started well before election year, though. :smile:
    Watergate broke in the 1972 election campaign, Nixon still won a landslide
    No, it didn't really 'break' that quickly. As we've discussed before, the whole scandal took rather a long time to get any traction.
    Trump's current contretemps has gained public awareness (with the reservations I've noted earlier) much more quickly, and much earlier in the electoral cycle.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Noo said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Yes, minimum pricing lowered alcohol consumption. Good to see the legislation having the intended effect.
    It hasn’t - the no of units of alcohol sold in the off trade in Scotland since the introduction has gone up.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,767
    edited October 2019
    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also hope for this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

    If Boris extends A50 in line with the Benn Act what possible excuse will Labour have to deny an election next (presumably Lib-Dem and SNP will be up for it) ?
    If A50 is extended I'm not sure the Tories will want an election - Farage will be in full betrayal mode and Johnson's "do or die" rhetoric will be thrown back at him.
    I suspect they've focused grouped the hell out of this and they know where the public will be laying the blame after the extension (and it won't be a Boris's door)
    Indeed, Boris will be on full betrayal mode railing against the MPs who are betraying the referendum vote.

    Farage will just be a bystander saying "I agree with Boris".
    LMFAO. Yeah, if there's one thing Farage proved last spring after May extended, it's that he's really willing to sacrifice his own party's fortunes in order to bail out a Tory PM.
    That was then. This is now.

    What Remainers don't understand is that Boris gets the benefit of the doubt with Brexiteers in a way May never could.

    People believe Boris genuinely wants to leave where-as they never thought that about Theresa.

    Anyone expecting the Tories to collapse after 31st October like they did after 29th March will be in for a nasty surprise IMO.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,172
    edited October 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also hope for this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

    LOL.

    You mean should there be an election right now the result might not be necessarily to your advantage?

    What factor do you suppose is inhibiting the march to victory?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also hope for this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

    If Boris extends A50 in line with the Benn Act what possible excuse will Labour have to deny an election next (presumably Lib-Dem and SNP will be up for it) ?
    If A50 is extended I'm not sure the Tories will want an election - Farage will be in full betrayal mode and Johnson's "do or die" rhetoric will be thrown back at him.
    I suspect they've focused grouped the hell out of this and they know where the public will be laying the blame after the extension (and it won't be a Boris's door)
    Indeed, Boris will be on full betrayal mode railing against the MPs who are betraying the referendum vote.

    Farage will just be a bystander saying "I agree with Boris".
    LMFAO. Yeah, if there's one thing Farage proved last spring after May extended, it's that he's really willing to sacrifice his own party's fortunes in order to bail out a Tory PM.
    Have you forgotten the fact that May chose to extend? She voluntarily did it, it wasn't forced upon her? When Parliament voted to extend she was in the Aye lobby not the Nay one?
    I can't be bothered getting into the argument again about whether May really wanted to extend or if she was forced into it by Parliament, but, even if what you were saying was true, why would Farage be bound by the truth? Why would he essentially close down his own party if he was getting nothing in return from the Tories?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,184
    Scott_P said:

    BoZo


    Priapic buffoon is now perhaps the definitive image of our PM.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also hope for this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

    If Boris extends A50 in line with the Benn Act what possible excuse will Labour have to deny an election next (presumably Lib-Dem and SNP will be up for it) ?
    If A50 is extended I'm not sure the Tories will want an election - Farage will be in full betrayal mode and Johnson's "do or die" rhetoric will be thrown back at him.
    I suspect they've focused grouped the hell out of this and they know where the public will be laying the blame after the extension (and it won't be a Boris's door)
    Indeed, Boris will be on full betrayal mode railing against the MPs who are betraying the referendum vote.

    Farage will just be a bystander saying "I agree with Boris".
    LMFAO. Yeah, if there's one thing Farage proved last spring after May extended, it's that he's really willing to sacrifice his own party's fortunes in order to bail out a Tory PM.
    That was then. This is now.

    What Remainers don'rt understand is that Boris gets the benefit of the doubt with Brexiteers in a way May never could.

    People believe Boris genuinely wants to leave where-as they never thought that about Theresa.

    Anyone expecting the Tories to collapse after 31st October like they did after 29th March will be in for a nasty surprise IMO.
    The fact the only people expecting it are Remainers speaks volumes. They just don't understand.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,030
    GIN1138 said:

    28th November or 5th December election would ruin Christmas? :D

    It would if Boris wins. Certainly I would not be pulling any crackers.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,918
    edited October 2019
    Great mysteries of the world explained, part 83.

    https://twitter.com/EssexCanning/status/1179055943381860352?s=20

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1179324124042317830?s=20

    Edit: mysteriously Guido appears to have deleted his tweet which showed a photo of Pritti P. gurning approvingly at a young 'activist' holding up a t-shirt which had 'I'm Pritti Conservative' above a drawing of a gallows and noose.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also hope for this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

    If Boris extends A50 in line with the Benn Act what possible excuse will Labour have to deny an election next (presumably Lib-Dem and SNP will be up for it) ?
    If A50 is extended I'm not sure the Tories will want an election - Farage will be in full betrayal mode and Johnson's "do or die" rhetoric will be thrown back at him.
    I suspect they've focused grouped the hell out of this and they know where the public will be laying the blame after the extension (and it won't be a Boris's door)
    Indeed, Boris will be on full betrayal mode railing against the MPs who are betraying the referendum vote.

    Farage will just be a bystander saying "I agree with Boris".
    LMFAO. Yeah, if there's one thing Farage proved last spring after May extended, it's that he's really willing to sacrifice his own party's fortunes in order to bail out a Tory PM.
    That was then. This is now.

    What Remainers don't understand is that Boris gets the benefit of the doubt with Brexiteers in a way May never could.

    People believe Boris genuinely wants to leave where-as they never thought that about Theresa.

    Anyone expecting the Tories to collapse after 31st October like they did after 29th March will be in for a nasty surprise IMO.
    Oh, I think it's possible the average Leave voter doesn't react to Boris extending in the same way they reacted to May extending. But what I know for damn sure is that Farage will react in exactly the same way as he did then, because that's what will serve his own / his party's best interests.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2019
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also hope for this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

    If Boris extends A50 in line with the Benn Act what possible excuse will Labour have to deny an election next (presumably Lib-Dem and SNP will be up for it) ?
    If A50 is extended I'm not sure the Tories will want an election - Farage will be in full betrayal mode and Johnson's "do or die" rhetoric will be thrown back at him.
    I suspect they've focused grouped the hell out of this and they know where the public will be laying the blame after the extension (and it won't be a Boris's door)
    Indeed, Boris will be on full betrayal mode railing against the MPs who are betraying the referendum vote.

    Farage will just be a bystander saying "I agree with Boris".
    LMFAO. Yeah, if there's one thing Farage proved last spring after May extended, it's that he's really willing to sacrifice his own party's fortunes in order to bail out a Tory PM.
    Have you forgotten the fact that May chose to extend? She voluntarily did it, it wasn't forced upon her? When Parliament voted to extend she was in the Aye lobby not the Nay one?
    I can't be bothered getting into the argument again about whether May really wanted to extend or if she was forced into it by Parliament, but, even if what you were saying was true, why would Farage be bound by the truth? Why would he essentially close down his own party if he was getting nothing in return from the Tories?
    WTF? Its not an argument, Hansard records all MPs votes its a matter of public record. May suggested Parliament have an extension vote then she went through the Aye lobby and voted for the extension. Then she went to Brussels to ask for the extension that she had requested and voted for in Parliament.

    If you think Boris and May are the same or perceived the same there's another thing coming.

    As for what Farage wants, its moot. What matters is what the voters think. Do Brexit voters think Boris is on their side? Do Brexit voters think the rest of Parliament is lined up against Boris and against Brexit? Do Brexit voters think a vote for Farage is a wasted vote and a vote for the Tories is the only way to get Brexit?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Nigelb said:

    Priapic buffoon is now perhaps the definitive image of our PM.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1179329431950770178
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Boris won’t resign - if he is filmed exiting court after a judge tells him he will face jail if he blocks an extension then that isn’t a bad look for a GE campaign.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also hope for this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

    If Boris extends A50 in line with the Benn Act what possible excuse will Labour have to deny an election next (presumably Lib-Dem and SNP will be up for it) ?
    If A50 is extended I'm not sure the Tories will want an election - Farage will be in full betrayal mode and Johnson's "do or die" rhetoric will be thrown back at him.
    I suspect they've focused grouped the hell out of this and they know where the public will be laying the blame after the extension (and it won't be a Boris's door)
    Indeed, Boris will be on full betrayal mode railing against the MPs who are betraying the referendum vote.

    Farage will just be a bystander saying "I agree with Boris".
    LMFAO. Yeah, if there's one thing Farage proved last spring after May extended, it's that he's really willing to sacrifice his own party's fortunes in order to bail out a Tory PM.
    Have you forgotten the fact that May chose to extend? She voluntarily did it, it wasn't forced upon her? When Parliament voted to extend she was in the Aye lobby not the Nay one?
    I can't be bothered getting into the argument again about whether May really wanted to extend or if she was forced into it by Parliament, but, even if what you were saying was true, why would Farage be bound by the truth? Why would he essentially close down his own party if he was getting nothing in return from the Tories?
    WTF? Its not an argument, Hansard records all MPs votes its a matter of public record. May suggested Parliament have an extension vote then she went through the Aye lobby and voted for the extension. Then she went to Brussels to ask for the extension that she had requested and voted for in Parliament.

    If you think Boris and May are the same or perceived the same there's another thing coming.

    As for what Farage wants, its moot. What matters is what the voters think. Do Brexit voters think Boris is on their side? Do Brexit voters think the rest of Parliament is lined up against Boris and against Brexit? Do Brexit voters think a vote for Farage is a wasted vote and a vote for the Tories is the only way to get Brexit?
    These are different arguments. I was only reacting to your idea that Farage would unilaterally disarm and just say "I agree with Boris". It ain't gonna happen!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,030

    Utter bollocks. If there is no extension, then whatever the deal is by that point gets through before the end of October. End of.

    The Withdrawal Agreement then.

    Works for me.
  • Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also hope for this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

    If Boris extends A50 in line with the Benn Act what possible excuse will Labour have to deny an election next (presumably Lib-Dem and SNP will be up for it) ?
    If A50 is extended I'm not sure the Tories will want an election - Farage will be in full betrayal mode and Johnson's "do or die" rhetoric will be thrown back at him.
    I suspect they've focused grouped the hell out of this and they know where the public will be laying the blame after the extension (and it won't be a Boris's door)
    Indeed, Boris will be on full betrayal mode railing against the MPs who are betraying the referendum vote.

    Farage will just be a bystander saying "I agree with Boris".
    LMFAO. Yeah, if there's one thing Farage proved last spring after May extended, it's that he's really willing to sacrifice his own party's fortunes in order to bail out a Tory PM.
    That was then. This is now.

    What Remainers don't understand is that Boris gets the benefit of the doubt with Brexiteers in a way May never could.

    People believe Boris genuinely wants to leave where-as they never thought that about Theresa.

    Anyone expecting the Tories to collapse after 31st October like they did after 29th March will be in for a nasty surprise IMO.
    Oh, I think it's possible the average Leave voter doesn't react to Boris extending in the same way they reacted to May extending. But what I know for damn sure is that Farage will react in exactly the same way as he did then, because that's what will serve his own / his party's best interests.
    Farage has one vote.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,767
    edited October 2019
    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    28th November or 5th December election would ruin Christmas? :D

    It would if Boris wins. Certainly I would not be pulling any crackers.
    #Scrooge :D
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    I'm sensing on here that the Remainers are losing confidence. Even looking for scapegoats. It's too early. If 50% of the brightest and best think we should Remain they'll probably make it happen.

    The country is split in half. The reason there's no centre ground is because Ed Milliband changed how Labour chose its leader and the party aquired enough entryists to elect a Marxist. Fear of him forced a collapsing Tory Party to choose Johnson who set up a proto fascist government.

    The loathing among ex pats in France (of which I am not one) is something to behold. Whatever Johnson 'Gets Done' will not be the end of it by a long chalk.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    Be hard to keep Jo out of any TV debates if they’re 2nd in the polls going into a GE campaign.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,767
    TGOHF2 said:
    Odd time to the a poll in the middle of Con conference?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    TGOHF2 said:

    Noo said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Yes, minimum pricing lowered alcohol consumption. Good to see the legislation having the intended effect.
    It hasn’t - the no of units of alcohol sold in the off trade in Scotland since the introduction has gone up.

    From the article:
    "A study in the British Medical Journal last week found that MUP led to alcohol consumption falling by 1.2 units per person per week, equivalent to a measure of spirits or half a pint of beer. The impacts were greatest on the heaviest drinkers, whose consumption fell by 2 units."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,087
    Boris supposedly gets beaten up by the Supreme Court....his opponents revel in him being in office but not in power...and yet Boris takes the Tory polling higher.

    Remainers really haven't got the hang of politics, have they?
  • Roger said:

    I'm sensing on here that the Remainers are losing confidence. Even looking for scapegoats. It's too early. If 50% of the brightest and best think we should Remain they'll probably make it happen.

    The country is split in half. The reason there's no centre ground is because Ed Milliband changed how Labour chose its leader and the party aquired enough entryists to elect a Marxist. Fear of him forced a collapsing Tory Party to choose Johnson who set up a proto fascist government.

    The loathing among ex pats in France (of which I am not one) is something to behold. Whatever Johnson 'Gets Done' will not be the end of it by a long chalk.

    "Proto-fascists"? Get a grip!
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    Be hard to keep Jo out of any TV debates if they’re 2nd in the polls going into a GE campaign.

    Hard to justify including Jezza if he’s consistently 3rd in the polls 😬
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    Scott_P said:
    I've predicted that all along! Pin the blame on others and rally Brexiteers that you're the one person able to overcome the treacherous Remainer MPs, the courts etc
    But how does the election get called?
    The opposition can't be cowards forever and the longer they are cowards the more damage it will do to them.

    If they succeed in forcing an extension and the public rightly blame them not Boris and then Boris calls for an election and they refuse it again and refuse a VONC again they are going to look utterly, utterly absurd.
    If there is no election in prospect, I would not expect the EU to offer an extension. They know dealing with Boris is a complete waste of time and with no election he could be in power for another few years. So the only EU offer is either "Non / Nein" or extend until 2023
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,087
    kinabalu said:

    Utter bollocks. If there is no extension, then whatever the deal is by that point gets through before the end of October. End of.

    The Withdrawal Agreement then.

    Works for me.
    Boris will still puff his chest out and claim that he has done the impossible - achieved Brexit.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,767
    TGOHF2 said:

    Be hard to keep Jo out of any TV debates if they’re 2nd in the polls going into a GE campaign.

    Hard to justify including Jezza if he’s consistently 3rd in the polls 😬
    Maybe there should be one with Boris, Swinsin and Jezza, one with all party leaders and a head to head with Boris and Swinson?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2019
    Danny565 said:

    These are different arguments. I was only reacting to your idea that Farage would unilaterally disarm and just say "I agree with Boris". It ain't gonna happen!

    I never said Farage would unilaterally disarm. I said that Farage would be rendered absolutely irrelevant and that Brexit voters won't run from Boris too him because they won't blame Boris, they will blame Remainers/MPs/Courts etc
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,030
    edited October 2019
    TOPPING said:

    LOL.

    You mean should there be an election right now the result might not be necessarily to your advantage?

    What factor do you suppose is inhibiting the march to victory?

    Don't know why brutal honesty gets a LOL. Nothing funny about the predicament that Labour are in.

    3 big problems -

    1. Limited public appetite for a serious assault on inequality and privilege.
    2. Moderate Brexit position struggles for air in a climate of polarization on the issue.
    3. BoJo softhead populist appeal is genuine and widespread.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,959
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    BoZo


    Priapic buffoon is now perhaps the definitive image of our PM.
    Boris increasingly reminds me of Tartuffe. (safe to google)
  • kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    LOL.

    You mean should there be an election right now the result might not be necessarily to your advantage?

    What factor do you suppose is inhibiting the march to victory?

    Don't know why brutal honesty gets a LOL. Nothing funny about the predicament that Labour are in.

    3 big problems -

    1. Limited public appetite for a serious assault on inequality and privilege.
    2. Moderate Brexit position struggles for air in a climate of polarized extremism.
    3. BoJo softhead populist appeal is genuine and widespread.
    1 even bigger problem. Corbyn.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Agree with Mike. This whole thing to slide into 2020. Smug city on the betting front for me if it does. As a Labour supporter I also hope for this outcome. We are not well placed electorally right now.

    If Boris extends A50 in line with the Benn Act what possible excuse will Labour have to deny an election next (presumably Lib-Dem and SNP will be up for it) ?
    If A50 is extended I'm not sure the Tories will want an election - Farage will be in full betrayal mode and Johnson's "do or die" rhetoric will be thrown back at him.
    I suspect they've focused grouped the hell out of this and they know where the public will be laying the blame after the extension (and it won't be a Boris's door)
    Indeed, Boris will be on full betrayal mode railing against the MPs who are betraying the referendum vote.

    Farage will just be a bystander saying "I agree with Boris".
    That is certainly possible, and I agree that the situation is different to when May was PM. However, Johnson has not been promising to leave on October 31st "unless traitorous Remainer MPs stop me". He's been guaranteeing that we will leave on October 31st.

    Regardless of the reason why he will have failed to keep this pledge it is certainly possible that it will dent his credibility. Remembering that most voters are not paying attention to the details of Parliamentary votes, it's not impossible that many voters will simply see someone who promised something and was not able to deliver on that promise. Why then trust that they will be able to deliver on a future promise?

    Of course, this is one reason for Johnson to seek to out-Farage Farage with the surrender rhetoric - it moves the media focus away from his failure to deliver onto his failure to act in a civil and polite manner.
  • Scott_P said:
    I've predicted that all along! Pin the blame on others and rally Brexiteers that you're the one person able to overcome the treacherous Remainer MPs, the courts etc
    But how does the election get called?
    The opposition can't be cowards forever and the longer they are cowards the more damage it will do to them.

    If they succeed in forcing an extension and the public rightly blame them not Boris and then Boris calls for an election and they refuse it again and refuse a VONC again they are going to look utterly, utterly absurd.
    If there is no election in prospect, I would not expect the EU to offer an extension. They know dealing with Boris is a complete waste of time and with no election he could be in power for another few years. So the only EU offer is either "Non / Nein" or extend until 2023
    Extending until 2023 won't keep us in if there's a Parliamentary majority to leave. A Boris majority would just set the exit day under UK law, activate the revocation of the 1972 European Communities Act and we'd be out that way.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    TGOHF2 said:

    Noo said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Yes, minimum pricing lowered alcohol consumption. Good to see the legislation having the intended effect.
    It hasn’t - the no of units of alcohol sold in the off trade in Scotland since the introduction has gone up.

    No it has not
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,698
    Big drop in FTSE

    "Posted at9:59
    FTSE drops by 100 points on Brexit deal worries"
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c9qdqqkgz27t/ftse-100
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,030

    1 even bigger problem. Corbyn.

    That's part of my (1).

    I don't think having a different leader but with the same political leanings would make much difference.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    HYUFD said:

    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

    November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.
    I've been told confidently by activists in all 3 major parties plus the Greens (I went to all the conferences for my day job and people gossip between meetings) that they are sure the election will be Nov 21 or 28. How much of that is just response to parties geeing up the activists in case it happens I don't know, but it makes me reluctant to put money against it. The theory is that the opposition will deny Johnson his Oct 31 deadline and will then have less reason and no excuse to refuse an election, one theme being "Johnson has failed, let us sort it out".

    Incidentally, I'm not sure that Yellow Submarine's various dates that interfere with campaigning add up to a substantial hurdle to late November or even early December. The number of people who are involved in all of them (Diwali AND Guy Fawkes AND nativity plays AND...) is small and campaigners will work around them. Serious activists in Scotland cheerfully campaign in the dark - I've been torchlight canvassing in a Glasgow by-election and it was good fun - and there's always weekends.
    Indeed plus US general and presidential elections are always in November
    Early November
    Even in early November, Alaska is going to be a far more fearsome prospect that anything the British climate might throw up.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Be hard to keep Jo out of any TV debates if they’re 2nd in the polls going into a GE campaign.

    Hard to justify including Jezza if he’s consistently 3rd in the polls 😬
    Maybe there should be one with Boris, Swinsin and Jezza, one with all party leaders and a head to head with Boris and Swinson?
    Why Swinson who is only leader of a very minority party with 12 MPs, and don't try to count the 6 turncoats as anything other than cowards trying to hang on to the trough.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 337
    I think its a mistake for Boris to allow the extension. He'd be better off resigning and letting the opposition extend but I doubt he has the balls.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,124
    Byronic said:
    Kaboom.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited October 2019

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    LOL.

    You mean should there be an election right now the result might not be necessarily to your advantage?

    What factor do you suppose is inhibiting the march to victory?

    Don't know why brutal honesty gets a LOL. Nothing funny about the predicament that Labour are in.

    3 big problems -

    1. Limited public appetite for a serious assault on inequality and privilege.
    2. Moderate Brexit position struggles for air in a climate of polarized extremism.
    3. BoJo softhead populist appeal is genuine and widespread.
    1 even bigger problem. Corbyn.

    You missed the perfect opportunity there with your name:

    3 big problems -

    1. Limited public appetite for a serious assault on inequality and privilege.
    2. Moderate Brexit position struggles for air in a climate of polarized extremism.
    3. BoJo softhead populist appeal is genuine and widespread.


    noneoftheabove

    1 even bigger problem. Corbyn.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Be hard to keep Jo out of any TV debates if they’re 2nd in the polls going into a GE campaign.

    Hard to justify including Jezza if he’s consistently 3rd in the polls 😬
    Maybe there should be one with Boris, Swinsin and Jezza, one with all party leaders and a head to head with Boris and Swinson?
    Why Swinson who is only leader of a very minority party with 12 MPs, and don't try to count the 6 turncoats as anything other than cowards trying to hang on to the trough.
    Polling about 20% higher than the SNP though.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Byronic said:
    Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,767
    edited October 2019
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Be hard to keep Jo out of any TV debates if they’re 2nd in the polls going into a GE campaign.

    Hard to justify including Jezza if he’s consistently 3rd in the polls 😬
    Maybe there should be one with Boris, Swinsin and Jezza, one with all party leaders and a head to head with Boris and Swinson?
    Why Swinson who is only leader of a very minority party with 12 MPs, and don't try to count the 6 turncoats as anything other than cowards trying to hang on to the trough.
    Morning Malc,

    Latest poll has Jezza dropping into third place. It looks like Lib-Dems could be on their way to becoming Her Majesty's loyal opposition - Broadcasters have to be fair.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,030

    Boris will still puff his chest out and claim that he has done the impossible - achieved Brexit.

    Well if he gets a Deal through, any Deal, either before a GE or after, either this year or in 2020, he will have done just that.

    It would be a genuine achievement. If he does it (which I bet he won't) you will not find me carping and heckling from a sedentary position.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    TGOHF2 said:

    Boris won’t resign - if he is filmed exiting court after a judge tells him he will face jail if he blocks an extension then that isn’t a bad look for a GE campaign.

    I suspect that is correct. If Boris is willing to risk it, I think it will yield an electoral dividend.

    Remainer tactics -- as worked out by lawyers under the shade of their fig trees while eating blue cheese -- seem excessively devious and likely to lead on to electoral catastrophe.

    At least, Ian Blackford's tactic (let's VNOC Boris asap) is very easy for the electorate to understand.
  • kinabalu said:

    1 even bigger problem. Corbyn.

    That's part of my (1).

    I don't think having a different leader but with the same political leanings would make much difference.
    A different leader may not tolerate anti-semitism or advocate cultist divisive politics perhaps?

    And it is not there are not enough votes in tackling inequality and privilege. It is that swing voters think Corbyn will create chaos in trying (and likely failing) to achieve those aims.

    Take the private schools example - charging VAT on private school fees would be an easy argument to make and could get majority support but instead they suggest stealing assets of private schools. Not only does this make people think its a rubbish policy, it makes people wonder what else they might steal?

    I am absolutely committed to tackling inequality and privilege but think Corbyn would make things worse not better.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    It's the highest Tory share in YouGov since September 5-6, which was just after the Benn Act passed the Commons on the 4th.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    THERE WILL BE BLOOD

    From the FT

    “Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.

    “MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “

    That’s where we are.
  • Byronic said:

    THERE WILL BE BLOOD

    From the FT

    “Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.

    “MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “

    That’s where we are.

    Is that why he has reached out boldly across the house, building relationships with opponents and generously comprimising to ensure parliament can create a majority for Brexit?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,963
    Brom said:

    Byronic said:
    Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!
    It depends how the votes are distributed. I think it’s conceivable that both Labour and the Lib Dems could have a very efficient vote with the Lib Dems gaining a lot of Tory seats and Labour over-performing in defending theirs.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,767
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Crikey, Baker sounding reasonable!!!!

    *faints*

    :D
  • Byronic said:

    THERE WILL BE BLOOD

    From the FT

    “Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.

    “MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “

    That’s where we are.

    If Johnson genuinely thought that he would not be behaving in the way he is.

  • Byronic said:
    But wait, this is after the Labour Parties Conference and before the PM's big speech. So there should be a Labour bounce in this and the Tory share should be deflated ... wait for the post-Boris speech figures.

    Tories will hit 40% soon ...
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    The EU has some serious questions to answer. If they refuse to budge an iota, then they will be largely responsible, at least in perception, for the two possible outcomes.

    Either Britain will no deal, with all the grief and chaos that comes with it, or Britain will remain in the EU - a roiled, embittered, dangerously divided and resentful country, just itching to have another go and leave, once again.

    Both of those are severely dystopian. So the EU needs to wise up, and compromise. Now.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    THERE WILL BE BLOOD

    From the FT

    “Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.

    “MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “

    That’s where we are.

    If Johnson genuinely thought that he would not be behaving in the way he is.

    I can assure you he genuinely thinks that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,124
    Byronic said:

    THERE WILL BE BLOOD

    From the FT

    “Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.

    “MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “

    That’s where we are.

    "One government insider".

    Can't think who from the Durham area this could possibly be.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,124

    Byronic said:

    THERE WILL BE BLOOD

    From the FT

    “Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.

    “MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “

    That’s where we are.

    If Johnson genuinely thought that he would not be behaving in the way he is.

    Genuinely :lol:

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,172
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    LOL.

    You mean should there be an election right now the result might not be necessarily to your advantage?

    What factor do you suppose is inhibiting the march to victory?

    Don't know why brutal honesty gets a LOL. Nothing funny about the predicament that Labour are in.

    3 big problems -

    1. Limited public appetite for a serious assault on inequality and privilege.
    2. Moderate Brexit position struggles for air in a climate of polarization on the issue.
    3. BoJo softhead populist appeal is genuine and widespread.
    Completely unelectable buffoon (to be generous) leading the party.
  • Byronic said:

    The EU has some serious questions to answer. If they refuse to budge an iota, then they will be largely responsible, at least in perception, for the two possible outcomes.

    Either Britain will no deal, with all the grief and chaos that comes with it, or Britain will remain in the EU - a roiled, embittered, dangerously divided and resentful country, just itching to have another go and leave, once again.

    Both of those are severely dystopian. So the EU needs to wise up, and compromise. Now.

    https://youtu.be/tInMR7QQUVc
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,030

    A different leader may not tolerate anti-semitism or advocate cultist divisive politics perhaps?

    And it is not there are not enough votes in tackling inequality and privilege. It is that swing voters think Corbyn will create chaos in trying (and likely failing) to achieve those aims.

    Take the private schools example - charging VAT on private school fees would be an easy argument to make and could get majority support but instead they suggest stealing assets of private schools. Not only does this make people think its a rubbish policy, it makes people wonder what else they might steal?

    I am absolutely committed to tackling inequality and privilege but think Corbyn would make things worse not better.

    The private schools policy in the manifesto will be just end the tax breaks plus some stuff on sharing facilities.

    On the general point, though -

    I think any Labour leader coming from the radical left would be demonized. The true objection in the case of most anti-Corbyn influencers is not to the person but to the political direction offered.

    This is not to say that I doubt your personal position on the matter.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,172
    edited October 2019
    Byronic said:

    THERE WILL BE BLOOD

    From the FT

    “Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.

    “MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “

    That’s where we are.

    That's where we are if you are trying to create a narrative wherein you can crowbar in some kind of an emergency powers act in order to suspend parliament.

    Why do you think Dom said the last few weeks of October would be spent in court?
  • Boris supposedly gets beaten up by the Supreme Court....his opponents revel in him being in office but not in power...and yet Boris takes the Tory polling higher.

    Remainers really haven't got the hang of politics, have they?

    You were predictig 40% plus for the Tories a couple of weeks back!

    The key thing is that the No Deal and anti-No Deal bloc shares remain the same. Given the huge disparities in the polls, everything else is just noise. The election will be decided by tactical voting and differential turnout.



  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Byronic said:
    But wait, this is after the Labour Parties Conference and before the PM's big speech. So there should be a Labour bounce in this and the Tory share should be deflated ... wait for the post-Boris speech figures.

    Tories will hit 40% soon ...
    Watched by how many, the Tory press will tell their Tory voting readers it was great there will be a few clips on the news but many people avoid it.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    THERE WILL BE BLOOD

    From the FT

    “Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.

    “MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “

    That’s where we are.

    "One government insider".

    Can't think who from the Durham area this could possibly be.
    Fuck the kremlinology, it’s boring and pointless. Fact is, this is self evidently true. Voter anger will boil over if Brexit is stymied. Idiot Remainers and imbecile ERGers need to wake up and smell the bacon. They are both playing a dangerous and stupid game.

    If you thwart democracy the people will turn to non-democracy
  • Byronic said:

    THERE WILL BE BLOOD

    From the FT

    “Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.

    “MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “

    That’s where we are.

    Is that why he has reached out boldly across the house, building relationships with opponents and generously comprimising to ensure parliament can create a majority for Brexit?
    May as well ride a unicorn into Parliament as do that.

    Who was willing to compromise with Boris to ensure Parliament can create a majority for Brexit?

    Do you mean Corbyn? Swinson? Sturgeon? Grieve?

    Boris is appealing over their heads to the voters. Quite right too.
  • Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    THERE WILL BE BLOOD

    From the FT

    “Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.

    “MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “

    That’s where we are.

    If Johnson genuinely thought that he would not be behaving in the way he is.

    I can assure you he genuinely thinks that.

    In which case he is a psychopath.

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Byronic said:

    THERE WILL BE BLOOD

    From the FT

    “Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.

    “MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “

    That’s where we are.


    Winding the EDL up to prove he was right, what could possibly go wrong?
  • Byronic said:

    THERE WILL BE BLOOD

    From the FT

    “Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.

    “MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “

    That’s where we are.

    Is that why he has reached out boldly across the house, building relationships with opponents and generously comprimising to ensure parliament can create a majority for Brexit?
    May as well ride a unicorn into Parliament as do that.

    Who was willing to compromise with Boris to ensure Parliament can create a majority for Brexit?

    Do you mean Corbyn? Swinson? Sturgeon? Grieve?

    Boris is appealing over their heads to the voters. Quite right too.
    Now probably only the Tory rebels he kicked out of the party. When he took over, he could have changed Mays red lines and found a majority.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,124
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    THERE WILL BE BLOOD

    From the FT

    “Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.

    “MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “

    That’s where we are.

    "One government insider".

    Can't think who from the Durham area this could possibly be.
    Fuck the kremlinology, it’s boring and pointless. Fact is, this is self evidently true. Voter anger will boil over if Brexit is stymied. Idiot Remainers and imbecile ERGers need to wake up and smell the bacon. They are both playing a dangerous and stupid game.

    If you thwart democracy the people will turn to non-democracy
    I agree about non-democracy. But I don't think we will see lynchings. Over the top.

    More likely a sullen, angry lack of engagement with politics plus election of Farage or similar.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,698
    TGOHF2 said:
    Third party fading a bit.
    Oh it's Labour!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,143
    TGOHF2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Boris’s deal has the DUP and most of the Spartans on board - should put it to the house...

    Put it to the house immediately, pass it, show the EU they have a good to go solution and let them force no deal
    Why do you think it would pass the House of Commons?
    Arithmetic would suggest it would be closer than any or May’s attempts - possibly even pass.

    Would certainly pass if the Benn act is debunked in court.
    Outline the legal arguments, please, on which the courts would hold an Act of Parliament to be invalid.
  • kinabalu said:

    A different leader may not tolerate anti-semitism or advocate cultist divisive politics perhaps?

    And it is not there are not enough votes in tackling inequality and privilege. It is that swing voters think Corbyn will create chaos in trying (and likely failing) to achieve those aims.

    Take the private schools example - charging VAT on private school fees would be an easy argument to make and could get majority support but instead they suggest stealing assets of private schools. Not only does this make people think its a rubbish policy, it makes people wonder what else they might steal?

    I am absolutely committed to tackling inequality and privilege but think Corbyn would make things worse not better.

    The private schools policy in the manifesto will be just end the tax breaks plus some stuff on sharing facilities.

    On the general point, though -

    I think any Labour leader coming from the radical left would be demonized. The true objection in the case of most anti-Corbyn influencers is not to the person but to the political direction offered.

    This is not to say that I doubt your personal position on the matter.

    I think that may be true on the right given the support that it provides to white supremacists like Trump, but I don't think it is true on the left. I opposed Corbyn in 2015 and have done so since because I knoew he had spent 40 years standing in solidarity with anti-Semites and people who wish harm on the UK and the west generally. I knoew exactly what his leadership would enable and where it would lead to. And here we are. It was never about naitonalising the railways or increasing taxes.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    THERE WILL BE BLOOD

    From the FT

    “Mr Johnson’s team is genuinely fearful that if a delay to Brexit led to a second Brexit referendum — the prime minister’s third and worst possible outcome — the country would be in a very dangerous place.

    “MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched,” said one government insider. “I think people would get killed.” “

    That’s where we are.

    "One government insider".

    Can't think who from the Durham area this could possibly be.
    Fuck the kremlinology, it’s boring and pointless. Fact is, this is self evidently true. Voter anger will boil over if Brexit is stymied. Idiot Remainers and imbecile ERGers need to wake up and smell the bacon. They are both playing a dangerous and stupid game.

    If you thwart democracy the people will turn to non-democracy
    The hams are not going to be out on the street. They have their Range Rovers to wash.
This discussion has been closed.