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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Once again the betting moves to the general election taking pl

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,956
    edited October 2019

    kinabalu said:

    So if that is to be the policy - which could gain support - why on earth allow your opponents an open goal to conflate it with the illegal asset stealing that was clearly in the conference motion?

    It is just poor leadership, communication and planning, which results in progressive politics being marginalised not enhanced. Not all leaders of the left would be so stupid.

    Well opponents will not be able to say that when the policy is down in black and white.

    But, yes, I agree we could have done without some of the conference virtue-signalling. Not just on private schools, there are a few areas where the actual policy will be considerably milder than the rhetoric in the motions.

    OTOH you have to let conference express themselves a bit. And it can have the effect of making some quite radical policy look moderate by comparison. Overton window.
    The trouble is that with social media and microtargeted messages, opponents *will* be able to say that, even though "the policy is down in black and white". CCHQ will send the more outlandish quotes to posh voters with young children. Unless one of the recipients works for the Labour Party's spin team, it will not be noticed, let alone rebutted.

    Isnt it nailed on labour team is packed full of people who send their kids to private schools, so they will be getting them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,099
    SunnyJim said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    It does seem that there are moves from all sides to support the deal that Boris brings back.

    If the ERG back it, Tories generally back it, most of the ex-Tories return to the fold plus the Labour leavers it must be very close to having the numbers.
    They'd be in a difficult position if Boris brings back Theresa May's deal with a few commas changed.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,334

    I think the opposition and rebel Tory MPs need to start thinking about a longer game. At the moment everything is focused, not surprisingly, on the very short term. However, for both Boris and his opponents/critics, there's no merit in winning the short-term and then losing everything a few months later.

    To sum up the objectives of the various players:

    Boris: Do-or-die on October 31st, then hold a GE when he'll be rewarded by a grateful country that he got Brexit done. He'll want to do this as soon as possible, to take advantage of his current honeymoon period and before the disaster of No Deal hits home (I think we can dismiss the possibility of us leaving on do-or-die date with a deal, there just isn't time even if he were trying seriously).

    Tory rebels: Avoid No Deal at almost any cost short of a Corbyn government.

    Independents and defectors: Same as Tory rebels, and preferably avoid Brexit altogether.

    LibDems: Avoid Brexit altogether, harvest the votes of moderate ex-Tories and moderate ex-Labour voters

    Labour: Blame everything on the Tories, don't have an election too soon given the polling, hope that something turns up to make a Labour victory more likely. Oh, and for most of the party (but not the leadership), avoid No Deal at all costs, preferably avoid Brexit altogether.

    Getting an extension of a few months during which an election is held doesn't really suit anyone, except perhaps Boris is he can avoid the flak from not meeting his do-or-die pledge. It doesn't suit those who genuinely want to avoid No Deal because there's a very substantial risk that Boris would do well enough to crash us out soon after the election anyway. It's hard to see why opposition parties would want to enable him to do this and to have 5 years of a Boris majority government.

    Holding a referendum, against Tory wishes, is a very bad idea: it would simply lead to a boycott and cries of Foul! If it resulted in a Remain vote, the Conservative Party would then probably win a GE on a platform of re-Brexiting.

    Where does this lead? To repeated applications of the Benn Act, leaving Boris impotent and helpless, unable to 'get Brexit done' and unable to do anything much else, so that his support leeches away as Farage lays into him more and more, It needs time to weaken him. And, who knows, perhaps Labour might even make itself electable if they can string it out long enough?

    Good post. This is a very likely scenario I think. Delay is in the interests of all UK parties except the Tories and also of the EU. So it is very likely to come about.
  • SunnyJim said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    It does seem that there are moves from all sides to support the deal that Boris brings back.

    If the ERG back it, Tories generally back it, most of the ex-Tories return to the fold plus the Labour leavers it must be very close to having the numbers.
    Think it would be very close, and probably pass. But <25% chance there is agreement with EU imo.
  • Even by boris standards, this is rambling incoherence.

    Seems to have got vaguely lost in some stuff about buses again.
    Making sure he gets the google searches.....or so the conspiracy goes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,586

    SunnyJim said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    It does seem that there are moves from all sides to support the deal that Boris brings back.

    If the ERG back it, Tories generally back it, most of the ex-Tories return to the fold plus the Labour leavers it must be very close to having the numbers.
    They'd be in a difficult position if Boris brings back Theresa May's deal with a few commas changed.
    The ones in a difficult position are Labour MPs, when Boris brings back a deal with no further extensions.....
  • dyingswandyingswan Posts: 189
    This parliament kept saying that it wanted to work. Well OK here is your chance. Hold an indicative vote on the Johnson proposal. Make your minds up. Then the EU will know whether it would pass the HOC.The electorate can also see who it is that wishes to thwart and frustrate rather than solve the problem.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,956
    edited October 2019
    I genuinely cant watch anymore of boris...it is like they stuck all the focus group buzz words in a blender...i think GPT2 could do a better job of writing this speech.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 7,912
    edited October 2019
    I see the North East is being completely ignored as usual. The ‘North’ obviously does not include us.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    I genuinely cant watch anymore of boris...it is like they stuck all the focus group buzz words in a blender...i think GPT2 could do a better job of writing this speech.

    + 1 I have turned the sound off!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Have we seen a photo of Johnson's buses yet?

    I would have thought it would have been a good puff piece sort of thing.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,827

    I see the North East is being completely ignored as usual. The ‘North’ obviously does not include us.

    We will connect you faster to Manchester. What more could you want?
  • dyingswan said:

    This parliament kept saying that it wanted to work. Well OK here is your chance. Hold an indicative vote on the Johnson proposal. Make your minds up. Then the EU will know whether it would pass the HOC.The electorate can also see who it is that wishes to thwart and frustrate rather than solve the problem.

    It will be far easier to get the votes of Clarke, Gauke & Hammond than the ERG fringes.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    This is a confident and rollicking performance from Boris. Certainly not a prime minster cowering, angry and under attack.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    "provided you obey the law..." says Boris, apparently without intentional irony.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 7,912
    Pro_Rata said:

    I see the North East is being completely ignored as usual. The ‘North’ obviously does not include us.

    We will connect you faster to Manchester. What more could you want?
    Duelling the A1 north of Morpeth would be nice. A Metro system extension would be game changing. A new bridge across the Tyne. etc...
  • This thread has been replaced with a new deal...
  • NEW THREAD

  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    "we led the way in parliamentary democracy" says Boris, apparently without intentional irony.
  • SunnyJim said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    It does seem that there are moves from all sides to support the deal that Boris brings back.

    If the ERG back it, Tories generally back it, most of the ex-Tories return to the fold plus the Labour leavers it must be very close to having the numbers.
    If the EU back it, DUP and ERG back it then if Westminster doesn't it's clear Westminster is simply obstructing Brexit and not worried about no deal.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,953
    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Byronic said:

    Hahahahaha

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHHHAHAH
    Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!
    It depends how the votes are distributed. I think it’s conceivable that both Labour and the Lib Dems could have a very efficient vote with the Lib Dems gaining a lot of Tory seats and Labour over-performing in defending theirs.
    It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!
    Indeed.

    Assuming that the Tories eventually manage to squeeze a couple of % back off the Brexit Party to get up to 36%, the differential in the latest YouGov between Con and Lib would be 13%, the same as in 2010.

    In 2010 the Libs were defending 62 seats with the huge benefit (for the Libs) of incumbency and ended up with 57.

    However, in 2017 they won only 12 seats and were 2nd in only another 38. They are in contention in just a handful of 3rd placed seats. In 2019 incumbency bonus is gone (and working against them), and tactical voting will occur but not as intensively as it might coming even from often quite distant places second and in seats which as often as not voted Leave.

    Torbay is a good example, with a 28% gap between Con and Lib, and with a combined Lib + Lab vote still 5,000 or so short of the Con 2017 vote. It is ranked 19th in terms of the % gap from 1st to the Libs in 2nd place, but more likely than not to be out of reach, albeit narrowly.

    So rather than 57 seats I think that the inference from current polling is that the Libs could realistically be looking to end up with something in the range 30 to 40 seats.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Pretty poor delivery at the end there from Boris. No much of substance, but sensible words on capitalism in the middle.
    Fairly average speech overall.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    I'm not sure that's quite true for the Lib Dems. To remain relevant, Brexit must remain a threat. So they need an election at a time when it has not happened, but for it potentially still to happen.

    Once we have left there will be a sizeable pool of rejoiners that the LD's can fish in.

    It is Labour who are going to have the internal warfare over whether to become a rejoining party, or worse, offer R2.

    The Tories will never be a party of rejoining so their position is settled.

    The SNP won't care as hopefully they will have been successful in their main aim.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Byronic said:

    This is a confident and rollicking performance from Boris. Certainly not a prime minster cowering, angry and under attack.

    I noticed his incredibly relaxed appearance.

    It's as if they have war-gamed all the scenarios and are confident in their position.

    Contrast with the remainers who now seem to either be thrashing around looking for an answer or have (finally) moved on to stages 4 and 5.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,089
    Brom said:

    148grss said:
    Some people like Mr Green just don't want any kind of deal and want the world to burn. Fair play to those at least trying to find a workable solution.
    I'm pretty sure Mr Green would have been considered a Eurosceptic once upon a time, and would be in favour of Norway esque deal. Like the majority of parliament would, and probably a majority of the populace. I'm considered a frothing at the mouth remoaner, and I am happy to take a Norway style relationship.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Noo said:

    Pretty poor delivery at the end there from Boris. No much of substance, but sensible words on capitalism in the middle.
    Fairly average speech overall.

    I wouldn't argue with this.

    He needs to cut out the rambling references to ancient mythology and make his delivery more punchy.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    {Typically sensible Nabavi stuff}
    Where does this lead?

    The only way out is a deal that is created as a compromise between all sides, but No Deal is embedded so strongly within the Conservative Party now that it doesn't seem possible.

    So this leads us inexorably to further bad choices, unless Johnson really can bamboozle either the EU, the DUP/ERG or both.
  • Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Byronic said:

    Hahahahaha

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHHHAHAH
    Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!
    It depends how the votes are distributed. I think it’s conceivable that both Labour and the Lib Dems could have a very efficient vote with the Lib Dems gaining a lot of Tory seats and Labour over-performing in defending theirs.
    It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!
    Indeed.

    Assuming that the Tories eventually manage to squeeze a couple of % back off the Brexit Party to get up to 36%, the differential in the latest YouGov between Con and Lib would be 13%, the same as in 2010.

    In 2010 the Libs were defending 62 seats with the huge benefit (for the Libs) of incumbency and ended up with 57.

    However, in 2017 they won only 12 seats and were 2nd in only another 38. They are in contention in just a handful of 3rd placed seats. In 2019 incumbency bonus is gone (and working against them), and tactical voting will occur but not as intensively as it might coming even from often quite distant places second and in seats which as often as not voted Leave.

    Torbay is a good example, with a 28% gap between Con and Lib, and with a combined Lib + Lab vote still 5,000 or so short of the Con 2017 vote. It is ranked 19th in terms of the % gap from 1st to the Libs in 2nd place, but more likely than not to be out of reach, albeit narrowly.

    So rather than 57 seats I think that the inference from current polling is that the Libs could realistically be looking to end up with something in the range 30 to 40 seats.
    I totally agree with this analysis..

    Torbay is demonstrative of the mountain the LDs have to climb.. 19th on the numerical target list yet needs a bloody huge swing and is a significant leave area... Really unlikely to fall unless the tories leak significant votes to BXP
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 3,713

    I genuinely cant watch anymore of boris...it is like they stuck all the focus group buzz words in a blender...i think GPT2 could do a better job of writing this speech.

    Who?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,561
    SunnyJim said:

    Byronic said:

    This is a confident and rollicking performance from Boris. Certainly not a prime minster cowering, angry and under attack.

    I noticed his incredibly relaxed appearance.

    It's as if they have war-gamed all the scenarios and are confident in their position.....
    Or he's just pissed.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,765
    I see Jester is still insisting he will withdraw on schedule. It is not known how many of his ex girlfriends have fallen for this line.
This discussion has been closed.