Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dominic Raab – a contender for the next election’s “Portillo m

123457»

Comments

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,809

    You are lying Swinson for all her other faults hasnt voted againgst Gay Rights and I never said she had Some of her new colleagues however do not have a good voting record in this area

    My 2 responses to your What is the Hamas policy on homosexuality? Can one be both present and involved?

    were bigjohnowls said:

    "Yet voting records suggest Jezza is in favour of Gay Rights and Marriage

    Same Cant be said for at least 3 LD MPs

    dozens of Tory MPs and 100% of Jesters DUP allies"


    And "Same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron both MPs in the Tory Swinson Party?"

    Me: what is the Hamas policy on homosexuality?
    You: same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron's.

    Not Swinson but Lee and Farron. You think they want to throw homosexual people off buildings.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    A very good point:



    In other words, not serious enough yet to justify the type of detailed talks that would lead to a deal.
    Well I think the DUP surrender is a serious and groundbreaking moment. Who would have thought of everything last winter Boris could successfully negotiate the DUP surrender?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    TOPPING said:

    You are lying Swinson for all her other faults hasnt voted againgst Gay Rights and I never said she had Some of her new colleagues however do not have a good voting record in this area

    My 2 responses to your What is the Hamas policy on homosexuality? Can one be both present and involved?

    were bigjohnowls said:

    "Yet voting records suggest Jezza is in favour of Gay Rights and Marriage

    Same Cant be said for at least 3 LD MPs

    dozens of Tory MPs and 100% of Jesters DUP allies"


    And "Same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron both MPs in the Tory Swinson Party?"

    Me: what is the Hamas policy on homosexuality?
    You: same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron's.

    Not Swinson but Lee and Farron. You think they want to throw homosexual people off buildings.
    You were implying the same about Corbyn, fool.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Far too long. Only needs to be three days tops.

    If ever there was a suspension of parliament that was two fingers to a whole load of people this is it
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,371
    Scott_P said:
    I could imagine it being delivered by the commissioners at this point. HM may have a convenient cold or other engagement.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,371
    egg said:


    Far too long. Only needs to be three days tops.

    If ever there was a suspension of parliament that was two fingers to a whole load of people this is it
    It'll be missing two sitting days (Wed and Thu).
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    AndyJS said:

    Average of polls, last 7 days:

    Con 32.6%
    Lab 22.6%
    LD 21.6%
    BRX 13.2%
    Grn 4.2%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election


    What about poll of polls latest from each company 1 month?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 40,961
    One advantage of Parliament being back:

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    egg said:


    Far too long. Only needs to be three days tops.

    If ever there was a suspension of parliament that was two fingers to a whole load of people this is it
    Those of us betting against a November election are all in favour of it.

    And honestly, three days more is not going to make all that much odds in the circumstances. The big dramas come after that.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,941


    A bunch of Labour MPs voting for Brexit would be a gift for Focus leaflets everywhere.

    (Speaking of which, slightly intrigued to have got two - different - Lib Dem "newspapers" in the Royal Mail junk deliveries over the last week. Both from the national party, not the local one. We're target seat #40, in theory, so evidently the party is feeling confident...)

    I take it that you're defining LD target number 40 as the seat which across the whole country has the 40th lowest difference in votes cast between the LD vote and the winning party as a % of total votes cast.

    Belfast South then, won by the DUP with 30.4% of the total vote and 30.4% ahead of the LDs' starting point of zero.

    What do the bar charts look like?
    The LD's don't campaign in N Ireland. Their sister Party is the Alliance. Which, with a bit of a following wind, will take a couple of seats off the Paisleyite Presbyterian's Party.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,597
    egg said:

    A very good point:



    In other words, not serious enough yet to justify the type of detailed talks that would lead to a deal.
    Well I think the DUP surrender is a serious and groundbreaking moment. Who would have thought of everything last winter Boris could successfully negotiate the DUP surrender?
    Yes, it's a very siginificant development and it won't have gone unoticed in capitals across Europe.

    I think Boris is going to pull this off!
  • egg said:


    Far too long. Only needs to be three days tops.

    If ever there was a suspension of parliament that was two fingers to a whole load of people this is it

    It means Brave Sir Boris misses PMQs.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 11,606

    egg said:


    Far too long. Only needs to be three days tops.

    If ever there was a suspension of parliament that was two fingers to a whole load of people this is it

    It means Brave Sir Boris misses PMQs.
    He must be gutted.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 40,961

    egg said:


    Far too long. Only needs to be three days tops.

    If ever there was a suspension of parliament that was two fingers to a whole load of people this is it

    It means Brave Sir Boris misses PMQs.
    He must be gutted.
    Not if dumb Dom continues to make a good reasonable showing.....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    Looking back on the election month market, October 2019 traded as short as 1.25 at one point. November 2019 has traded as short as 1.62 (it could go shorter again, of course). I wonder how short December 2019 will go?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,809
    Noo said:

    TOPPING said:

    You are lying Swinson for all her other faults hasnt voted againgst Gay Rights and I never said she had Some of her new colleagues however do not have a good voting record in this area

    My 2 responses to your What is the Hamas policy on homosexuality? Can one be both present and involved?

    were bigjohnowls said:

    "Yet voting records suggest Jezza is in favour of Gay Rights and Marriage

    Same Cant be said for at least 3 LD MPs

    dozens of Tory MPs and 100% of Jesters DUP allies"


    And "Same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron both MPs in the Tory Swinson Party?"

    Me: what is the Hamas policy on homosexuality?
    You: same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron's.

    Not Swinson but Lee and Farron. You think they want to throw homosexual people off buildings.
    You were implying the same about Corbyn, fool.
    Oh it's king dickhead getting involved. I said that Corbyn hangs out with Hamas. Which he has done.

    So someone in the Labour party criticising the Conservatives for voting against gay marriage was pretty rich.
  • Scott_P said:
    1. Will MPs try to block short prorogation? No, that misunderstands the Supreme Court decision. Prorogation remains a prerogative power, but one which is justicable before the courts. The court accepted a short prorogation genuinely intended for preparation of a Queen's Speech was lawful. It didn't hand over a veto to Parliament.

    2. How could Johnson continue in office if his Queen's Speech was defeated? In normal times, a PM would voluntarily go to the Queen and say, regrettably, he no longer commands the support of the House. But that ship has kind of sailed with Johnson. He's only booted out if the motion of no confidence passes in the prescribed form.

    3. Will the Queen be in a "mood" to deliver the speech? Whilst she might get Charles to do it (I seem to recall he's done it before but may be misremembering). But she's not going to refuse to do it, clearly. She's always been quite clear that her job is to blindly act on advice of her PM - she did it over prorogation, for example, and the Supreme Court basically said that's exactly right and it's not her role to check the legality etc.

    4. What if the speech is deemed to be a breach of the trades descriptions act? The Trades Descriptions Act does not apply to the Queen's Speech on its face, obv.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    One advantage of Parliament being back:

    That really moved me. Well done her.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,479
    Not sure how much Labour support this deal will get but I think there is now a chance to pass a deal if that can be agreed between the UK and EU.

    I think there’s a little too much pessimism re chances of a deal passing the Commons .

    The pressure to pass the deal will be huge , and if the ERG and DUP are onside , it’s likely to mean that many of the 20 rebels will also vote for it if it means getting the whip back .

    Which leaves Labour MPs as key .

    In that case you’d only need around 20 to get the deal over the line .
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    TOPPING said:

    Noo said:

    TOPPING said:

    You are lying Swinson for all her other faults hasnt voted againgst Gay Rights and I never said she had Some of her new colleagues however do not have a good voting record in this area

    My 2 responses to your What is the Hamas policy on homosexuality? Can one be both present and involved?

    were bigjohnowls said:

    "Yet voting records suggest Jezza is in favour of Gay Rights and Marriage

    Same Cant be said for at least 3 LD MPs

    dozens of Tory MPs and 100% of Jesters DUP allies"


    And "Same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron both MPs in the Tory Swinson Party?"

    Me: what is the Hamas policy on homosexuality?
    You: same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron's.

    Not Swinson but Lee and Farron. You think they want to throw homosexual people off buildings.
    You were implying the same about Corbyn, fool.
    Oh it's king dickhead getting involved. I said that Corbyn hangs out with Hamas. Which he has done.

    So someone in the Labour party criticising the Conservatives for voting against gay marriage was pretty rich.
    Don't be angry at me just because you made an arse of yourself.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,941

    One advantage of Parliament being back:

    Christ. Follow that!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,099

    A very good point:



    In other words, not serious enough yet to justify the type of detailed talks that would lead to a deal.
    However it's enough to make it hard for Johnson to justify flouncing out.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Have to change the words of the song now 😕

    No consent to the IRA.

    In truth it’s a sane move.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,809
    Noo said:

    TOPPING said:

    Noo said:

    TOPPING said:

    You are lying Swinson for all her other faults hasnt voted againgst Gay Rights and I never said she had Some of her new colleagues however do not have a good voting record in this area

    My 2 responses to your What is the Hamas policy on homosexuality? Can one be both present and involved?

    were bigjohnowls said:

    "Yet voting records suggest Jezza is in favour of Gay Rights and Marriage

    Same Cant be said for at least 3 LD MPs

    dozens of Tory MPs and 100% of Jesters DUP allies"


    And "Same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron both MPs in the Tory Swinson Party?"

    Me: what is the Hamas policy on homosexuality?
    You: same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron's.

    Not Swinson but Lee and Farron. You think they want to throw homosexual people off buildings.
    You were implying the same about Corbyn, fool.
    Oh it's king dickhead getting involved. I said that Corbyn hangs out with Hamas. Which he has done.

    So someone in the Labour party criticising the Conservatives for voting against gay marriage was pretty rich.
    Don't be angry at me just because you made an arse of yourself.
    How did I make an arse of myself? A Labour party supporter criticised the Conservatives for their attitude (some of them) to gay marriage.

    Jeremy Corbyn is an anti semite and calls Hamas "friends". Hamas throws homosexuals off buildings.

    He also said that Philip Lee and Tim Farron (not Jo Swinson) had the same policy towards homosexuals as Hamas. Hamas' policy towards homosexuals is to kill them so I wondered how said member of the Labour party came to that conclusion.

    Not convinced I made an arse of myself.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    GIN1138 said:

    egg said:

    A very good point:



    In other words, not serious enough yet to justify the type of detailed talks that would lead to a deal.
    Well I think the DUP surrender is a serious and groundbreaking moment. Who would have thought of everything last winter Boris could successfully negotiate the DUP surrender?
    Yes, it's a very siginificant development and it won't have gone unoticed in capitals across Europe.

    I think Boris is going to pull this off!
    DUP on side
    ERG on side
    EU on side

    Rabbit out the hat!

    And, the real kicker as Boris would say, even though he’s already got enough commons votes for it, it comes decorated with Labour disarray as many of their MPs defy whip to vote for it too. 🥳
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,597
    edited October 2019
    Arlene [HEARTS] Sinful Boris.

    I have no idea why... But she does. :D
  • isamisam Posts: 32,922
    ‘Only the most obtuse’?

    Prepare for an avalanche of posts disagreeing
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,597
    egg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    egg said:

    A very good point:



    In other words, not serious enough yet to justify the type of detailed talks that would lead to a deal.
    Well I think the DUP surrender is a serious and groundbreaking moment. Who would have thought of everything last winter Boris could successfully negotiate the DUP surrender?
    Yes, it's a very siginificant development and it won't have gone unoticed in capitals across Europe.

    I think Boris is going to pull this off!
    DUP on side
    ERG on side
    EU on side

    Rabbit out the hat!

    And, the real kicker as Boris would say, even though he’s already got enough commons votes for it, it comes decorated with Labour disarray as many of their MPs defy whip to vote for it too. 🥳
    Jezza should have gone for an election when Boris proposed it.

    That might be his last chance to become PM gone...
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:


    Far too long. Only needs to be three days tops.

    If ever there was a suspension of parliament that was two fingers to a whole load of people this is it
    Those of us betting against a November election are all in favour of it.

    And honestly, three days more is not going to make all that much odds in the circumstances. The big dramas come after that.
    Then what was the point busting the old legal gut to get back?
    It means there was a point, but not the one widely given.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,371
    New thread.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    So just SF, Labour and Dublin who are the roadblock to Brexit now.

    Why won’t they meet in the middle.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    nico67 said:

    Not sure how much Labour support this deal will get but I think there is now a chance to pass a deal if that can be agreed between the UK and EU.

    I think there’s a little too much pessimism re chances of a deal passing the Commons .

    The pressure to pass the deal will be huge , and if the ERG and DUP are onside , it’s likely to mean that many of the 20 rebels will also vote for it if it means getting the whip back .

    Which leaves Labour MPs as key .

    In that case you’d only need around 20 to get the deal over the line .

    If I were Corbyn I'd love a small rebellion to get the bill through without dirtying the Labour Party's hands with it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,597
    edited October 2019
    When would the vote on the QS be held?

    Lets say this is the sequence:

    You have QS on 14th October.

    Boris gets his deal on 17th/18th October.

    Boris presents his deal to Parliament on 21st October. Passes. 31st October is secured as date we leave.

    QS is voted on 21st/22nd October. It fails.

    One line election bill is presented to Parliament 23rd October. Passes with Con + DUP + SNP + Lib-Dem

    Election held on 28th November or 5th December.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,958
    It seems some Labour MPs have woken up and smelled the coffee.

    Encouraging.
This discussion has been closed.