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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The curious incident of the ERG at Christmas 2017

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    To be honest so much has gone wrong with the Brexit process that I struggle to remember the joint report. If it indeed assumed continuing alignment of the UK and EU on SM measures it was indeed remarkable that so little was said at the time.

    And yet that is a compromise which in my view most leavers (if not the loudest) would still accept. Out of the political structures, in the SM. It seems something we need to get back to.

    I would certainly agree with that last point. It is what May should have worked towards, with cross-party support, right from the start. But I remember when May's deal was first unveiled many people felt that its great strength was that May "got it" that the Brexit vote was all about immigration, and so we had to be out of the single market. Hence the backstop, and hence all the problems.
    The reality is that leaving the single market creates unsolvable problems at the Irish border, while staying in the single market leaves the Leave campaign's central pillar of ending free movement unachieved. What a mess!
    Great header by the way.
    Exactly, until immigration is brought under control with free movement replaces by a points system staying in the Single Market is not an option without betraying one of the key platforms of the Leave vote.
    You do understand that a "points system" and the single market are incompatible, right?
    Yes, hence why we must leave the single market for at least 10 years until EU migration is under control
  • The answer to your question is that the ERG do not do detail

    For that matter very, very few politicians do.

    Posturing and pursuing advantage (either their party's or their own) is what they do.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    To be honest so much has gone wrong with the Brexit process that I struggle to remember the joint report. If it indeed assumed continuing alignment of the UK and EU on SM measures it was indeed remarkable that so little was said at the time.

    And yet that is a compromise which in my view most leavers (if not the loudest) would still accept. Out of the political structures, in the SM. It seems something we need to get back to.

    I would certainly agree with that last point. It is what May should have worked towards, with cross-party support, right from the start. But I remember when May's deal was first unveiled many people felt that its great strength was that May "got it" that the Brexit vote was all about immigration, and so we had to be out of the single market. Hence the backstop, and hence all the problems.
    The reality is that leaving the single market creates unsolvable problems at the Irish border, while staying in the single market leaves the Leave campaign's central pillar of ending free movement unachieved. What a mess!
    Great header by the way.
    Exactly, until immigration is brought under control with free movement replaces by a points system staying in the Single Market is not an option without betraying one of the key platforms of the Leave vote.

    What are other key platforms of the Leave vote expendable?

    Regain sovereignty, end ECJ jurisdiction, stop sending money to Brussels etc.

    That was the Vote Leave platform and must be delivered

    All the benefits of EU membership with none of the downsides; a free trade zone fromt he Urals to Iceland; absolutely no change tot he status of the Irish border. All key platforms of the Leave campaign. All abandoned.

    But I agree, the Leave campaign was run by people who want to deregulate the UK economy, degrade the environment, cut public spending and reduce workers' rights, using cutting immigration as their wedge issue.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    P
    Scott_P said:
    Bureaucrats are the big Brexit winners. Red tape heaven.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Barnesian said:

    The other explanation is that the dog DID bark but was ignored at the time, and we don't remember it barking .

    No, it really didn't Check out the media reports at the time
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key difference between Boris and May is Boris ensured he had DUP and ERG support (and thus a likely Commons majority) before making his proposals to the EU

    And the ERG and the DUP are enough for the deal (were it to be accepted by the EU) to get through Parliament.

    I suspect Boris still doesn't have the numbers.

    Neither the ERG nor the DUP can back any deal acceptable to the EU.

    The EU have not yet rejected the Boris proposals both the ERG and DUP support, the only other possibility is a NI only backstop which requires a Tory majority as the DUP would veto it
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911



    Genuine question - didn’t the EU introduce capital controls in Cyprus a few years back or am I misremembering?

    If I recall right, then it appears the four freedoms are indivisible until they aren’t?

    The four freedoms can be compromised temporarily in an emergency - especially if those affected are mostly Russian money launderers. What it won't do is compromise the principles permanently for its second largest member.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    To be honest so much has gone wrong with the Brexit process that I struggle to remember the joint report. If it indeed assumed continuing alignment of the UK and EU on SM measures it was indeed remarkable that so little was said at the time.

    And yet that is a compromise which in my view most leavers (if not the loudest) would still accept. Out of the political structures, in the SM. It seems something we need to get back to.

    I would certainly agree with that last point. It is what May should have worked towards, with cross-party support, right from the start. But I remember when May's deal was first unveiled many people felt that its great strength was that May "got it" that the Brexit vote was all about immigration, and so we had to be out of the single market. Hence the backstop, and hence all the problems.
    The reality is that leaving the single market creates unsolvable problems at the Irish border, while staying in the single market leaves the Leave campaign's central pillar of ending free movement unachieved. What a mess!
    Great header by the way.
    The assumption built into this is that the 4 freedoms of the SM are indivisible. That was the EU position but we don't have to accept that. Freedom of movement is not a prerequisite of free movement of goods, services and money. It just isn't and we seem to have had some success ultimately in getting the EU to accept that.
    That's right in as far as it goes. But what if we were in the single market but uniquely Britain excluded foreign workers and Brits were denied full employment opportunities in the rest of Europe? How sustainable do you think that would be?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    GIN1138 said:


    I don't think a VONC would be allowed before Parliament has voted on Queens Speech.

    The way I see it playing out:

    1. Queens Speech 14th October followed by 5-6 days of debate (in this period normal buisness doesn't take place)

    2. EU summit 17th/18th October. Boris flys home with a deal late on 18th.

    3. Emergency debate tabled by government on Saturday 19th October to discuss and vote on the deal. Deal passes.

    4. Queens Speech vote on 21st October. Government loses.

    5. Possible VONC following Queens Speech loss. Government loses.

    6. general election agreed on 22nd October for 28th November or 5th December.

    IMO there is a reason the Queens Speech is happening on 14th October with EU summit on 17th and 18th. That is not a coincidence

    This seems to assume a very helpful series of votes for the government, I don't really understand why the opposition parties would cooperate with it.

    Opposition will vote against the governments Queens Speech yes?

    Government loses QS.

    Under FTPA QS are not VONC but as good as. Nevertheless I suspect that after defeating the government on the QS the Opposition would be forced to lay down a VONC which the government is also likely to lose.

    At that point an election would have to be agreed as no one else has the numbers to get a QS through either...

    I suppose we could find ourselves with the extraordinary spectacle of the Opposition being so fri they actually vote for the governments Queens Speech but that would be very odd...
    BTW, I believe if the government does lose the vote on the QS it will be the first time that's happened since 1924?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    Why can we never find a PM with the authority of a rugby ref?

    Because MPs are footballers, not rugby players when it comes to attitudes to the ref.
  • New Zealand wont be losing any sleep watching england make hard work if a 14 man Argentina.

    Neither will France. Or Wales.

    A quarter-final floptacular beckons.
    Looks like big billy is injuried now as well. England have zero chance without him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    To be honest so much has gone wrong with the Brexit process that I struggle to remember the joint report. If it indeed assumed continuing alignment of the UK and EU on SM measures it was indeed remarkable that so little was said at the time.

    And yet that is a compromise which in my view most leavers (if not the loudest) would still accept. Out of the political structures, in the SM. It seems something we need to get back to.

    I would certainly agree with that last point. It is what May should have worked towards, with cross-party support, right from the start. But I remember when May's deal was first unveiled many people felt that its great strength was that May "got it" that the Brexit vote was all about immigration, and so we had to be out of the single market. Hence the backstop, and hence all the problems.
    The reality is that leaving the single market creates unsolvable problems at the Irish border, while staying in the single market leaves the Leave campaign's central pillar of ending free movement unachieved. What a mess!
    Great header by the way.
    Exactly, until immigration is brought under control with free movement replaces by a points system staying in the Single Market is not an option without betraying one of the key platforms of the Leave vote.

    What are other key platforms of the Leave vote expendable?

    Regain sovereignty, end ECJ jurisdiction, stop sending money to Brussels etc.

    That was the Vote Leave platform and must be delivered

    All the benefits of EU membership with none of the downsides; a free trade zone fromt he Urals to Iceland; absolutely no change tot he status of the Irish border. All key platforms of the Leave campaign. All abandoned.

    But I agree, the Leave campaign was run by people who want to deregulate the UK economy, degrade the environment, cut public spending and reduce workers' rights, using cutting immigration as their wedge issue.

    Boris has confirmed he will not impose a hard border and by keeping Northern Ireland in the Single Market for goods ensures that, Boris has given an excellent proposal for a free trade deal to be enabled with the EU while respecting the other key policies of Vote Leave, if the EU reject it tough. No Deal it has to be.

    Boris is also increasing spending on the NHS and police etc and increasing the minimum wage as well as cutting immigration.

    The Tory and LD coalition government cut spending more than this Boris government
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    TGOHF2 said:
    Utterly crushing news for Corbyn Labour as they face collapsing to third losing Remainers to the LDs and Leavers to the Tories and the Brexit Party
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Bonus point try
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Some BXP starting to realize Farage isn't really interested in getting Brexit done and just wants to posture (and possibly stay on the EU gravy train? ;) )
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911
    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Utterly crushing news for Corbyn Labour as they face collapsing to third losing Remainers to the LDs and Leavers to the Tories and the Brexit Party
    Why is this news? Don't the 2017 voters cross tabs in the published public polls tell us much the same thing? (I don't remember the details but I am pretty sure the numbers are in this kind of ballpark).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Why can we never find a PM with the authority of a rugby ref?

    Because MPs are footballers, not rugby players when it comes to attitudes to the ref.
    I blame the Speaker.....
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    The United Kingdom is a failed state, and the entire mess over Brexit could be resolved much more easily were it to be broken up. The sheer scale of the failure by our political system in general, and most of its constituent parties, has been colossal. Like the Palace of Westminster itself, the structure is rotten and the bulk of it simply needs tearing down and replacing with something better.

    Dramatic much? France is more of a failed state than we are, and nobody is proposing that they pack it in. We disagree about stuff. That's it.
    The partition of Ireland is a running sore. Scotland is dominated by nationalists. A core of anything between 35 and 45 percent of the population of both countries loathes rule from London, is desperate to escape and is not going to change its mind. Our difference of opinion over Europe has merely brought things to a head.

    Northern Ireland needs to go. In theory Great Britain as an entity could have a new lease of life, but in practice our politicians are too venal, incompetent, partisan and thick to make such a thing happen.

    There's little that the countries of the UK can achieve as a single unit that they couldn't do more effectively separately, and they'd be free to chart their own course. If the Union ceased to exist, there would be about as much enthusiasm for re-establishing it as one would find for that proposition in Dublin, i.e. zero.

    The Union, as a project, has at its core an ancient political agreement between Scotland and England that came about because England wanted to rid itself of a potential military threat on its northern border, and Scotland wanted a stack of cash and a slice of the English empire. The original conditions that created the project have now been removed, and the project is dying as a result. Why not put it out of its misery?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673
    edited October 2019
    Oh Dear , and pearl clutchers on here think this is PM material
    Swinson fails to declare family company was given 3.5m euro by the European Union.
    Good old Lib Dems. Swinson fails to declare family company was given 3.5m euro by the European Union
    https://nyebevannews.co.uk/swinson-fails-to-declare-family-company-was-given-3-5m-euro-by-the-european-union/
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    To be honest so much has gone wrong with the Brexit process that I struggle to remember the joint report. If it indeed assumed continuing alignment of the UK and EU on SM measures it was indeed remarkable that so little was said at the time.

    And yet that is a compromise which in my view most leavers (if not the loudest) would still accept. Out of the political structures, in the SM. It seems something we need to get back to.

    I would certainly agree with that last point. It is what May should have worked towards, with cross-party support, right from the start. But I remember when May's deal was first unveiled many people felt that its great strength was that May "got it" that the Brexit vote was all about immigration, and so we had to be out of the single market. Hence the backstop, and hence all the problems.
    The reality is that leaving the single market creates unsolvable problems at the Irish border, while staying in the single market leaves the Leave campaign's central pillar of ending free movement unachieved. What a mess!
    Great header by the way.
    Exactly, until immigration is brought under control with free movement replaces by a points system staying in the Single Market is not an option without betraying one of the key platforms of the Leave vote.

    What are other key platforms of the Leave vote expendable?

    Regain sovereignty, end ECJ jurisdiction, stop sending money to Brussels etc.

    That was the Vote Leave platform and must be delivered

    All the benefits of EU membership with none of the downsides; a free trade zone fromt he Urals to Iceland; absolutely no change tot he status of the Irish border. All key platforms of the Leave campaign. All abandoned.

    But I agree, the Leave campaign was run by people who want to deregulate the UK economy, degrade the environment, cut public spending and reduce workers' rights, using cutting immigration as their wedge issue.

    So how do all the promises of increased government spending and increased Living Wage fit into your conspiracy theory ?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    To be honest so much has gone wrong with the Brexit process that I struggle to remember the joint report. If it indeed assumed continuing alignment of the UK and EU on SM measures it was indeed remarkable that so little was said at the time.

    And yet that is a compromise which in my view most leavers (if not the loudest) would still accept. Out of the political structures, in the SM. It seems something we need to get back to.

    I would What a mess!
    Great header by the way.
    Exactly, until immigration is brought under control with free movement replaces by a points system staying in the Single Market is not an option without betraying one of the key platforms of the Leave vote.

    What are other key platforms of the Leave vote expendable?

    Regain sovereignty, end ECJ jurisdiction, stop sending money to Brussels etc.

    That was the Vote Leave platform and must be delivered

    All the benefits of EU membership with none of the downsides; a free trade zone fromt he Urals to Iceland; absolutely no change tot he status of the Irish border. All key platforms of the Leave campaign. All abandoned.

    But I agree, the Leave campaign was run by people who want to deregulate the UK economy, degrade the environment, cut public spending and reduce workers' rights, using cutting immigration as their wedge issue.

    Boris has confirmed he will not impose a hard border and by keeping Northern Ireland in the Single Market for goods ensures that, Boris has given an excellent proposal for a free trade deal to be enabled with the EU while respecting the other key policies of Vote Leave, if the EU reject it tough. No Deal it has to be.

    Boris is also increasing spending on the NHS and police etc and increasing the minimum wage as well as cutting immigration.

    The Tory and LD coalition government cut spending more than this Boris government

    Johnson has said lots of things. Most of them have been lies because lying is what he does. Johnson said that there would be no change tot he status of the Irish border. There is a change to the status of the Irish border. That's why every political party in Northern Ireland, except the DUP, and every business group there opposes his plan.

    But we agree HYUFD. Johnson will deliver No Deal and win his election. It will be four titles in a row for Tory FC. The only difference between us is that I care about the future of the UK, while you support a football team.

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Have we stopped having posts about strawberry availability in the Tesco Metro near the M1 outside Luton? Because it looks like the fruit rotting in the fields story is carrying on.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,849
    Very good header.

    I have a settled opinion now on what the Johnson plan is.

    1. Be 'forced' to agree extension.
    2. Fight election on People v Quislings.
    3. Win a majority.
    4. Brexit with a Deal.

    The Deal to be -

    (i) WA with NI only backstop time limited for 7 years.
    (ii) PD rewritten to target a Canada style FTA.

    What I remain very unsure about is whether he will pull it off. Perhaps he won't get an election. Perhaps he will but will lose it.

    If he does pull it off only two words will suffice.

    Great Man.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    Why can we never find a PM with the authority of a rugby ref?

    Because he can’t red card players
    But the speaker can better analogy for a ref.
    In normal circumstance yes
  • The United Kingdom is a failed state, and the entire mess over Brexit could be resolved much more easily were it to be broken up. The sheer scale of the failure by our political system in general, and most of its constituent parties, has been colossal. Like the Palace of Westminster itself, the structure is rotten and the bulk of it simply needs tearing down and replacing with something better.

    Dramatic much? France is more of a failed state than we are, and nobody is proposing that they pack it in. We disagree about stuff. That's it.
    The partition of Ireland is a running sore. Scotland is dominated by nationalists. A core of anything between 35 and 45 percent of the population of both countries loathes rule from London, is desperate to escape and is not going to change its mind. Our difference of opinion over Europe has merely brought things to a head.

    Northern Ireland needs to go. In theory Great Britain as an entity could have a new lease of life, but in practice our politicians are too venal, incompetent, partisan and thick to make such a thing happen.

    There's little that the countries of the UK can achieve as a single unit that they couldn't do more effectively separately, and they'd be free to chart their own course. If the Union ceased to exist, there would be about as much enthusiasm for re-establishing it as one would find for that proposition in Dublin, i.e. zero.

    The Union, as a project, has at its core an ancient political agreement between Scotland and England that came about because England wanted to rid itself of a potential military threat on its northern border, and Scotland wanted a stack of cash and a slice of the English empire. The original conditions that created the project have now been removed, and the project is dying as a result. Why not put it out of its misery?
    The Protestant religion and the British Empire were also features which no longer apply.

    The United Kingdom really has been a failure of nation building compared with Germany or Italy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Utterly crushing news for Corbyn Labour as they face collapsing to third losing Remainers to the LDs and Leavers to the Tories and the Brexit Party
    Perhaps Lab coming 3rd is the only way to secure the removal of Corbyn and his cranks?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Why can we never find a PM with the authority of a rugby ref?

    Because he can’t red card players
    Boris red-carded the 21 Conservative MPs from whom he removed the whip, thus ending their careers, after his fake vote of confidence; we can tell it was not real as his lips moved Boris did not resign on losing it.
    You’re misunderstanding what Boris did

    He deemed it a vote of confidence from a *party* not a governmental perspective

    (If you don’t support me you are not in my team vs the government will resign)

    They are very different things.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,849
    HYUFD said:

    The EU have not yet rejected the Boris proposals both the ERG and DUP support, the only other possibility is a NI only backstop which requires a Tory majority as the DUP would veto it

    The Boris "proposals".

    Hats off.

    CH4 news the other day consistently referred to it as a "deal". Very disappointing from CH4 news, that was. Had me shouting at the TV.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    To be honest so much has gone wrong with the Brexit process that I struggle to remember the joint report. If it indeed assumed continuing alignment of the UK and EU on SM measures it was indeed remarkable that so little was said at the time.

    And yet that is a compromise which in my view most leavers (if not the loudest) would still accept. Out of the political structures, in the SM. It seems something we need to get back to.

    I would certainly agree with that last point. It is what May should have worked towards, with cross-party support, right from the start. But I remember when May's deal was first unveiled many people felt that its great strength was that May "got it" that the Brexit vote was all about immigration, and so we had to be out of the single market. Hence the backstop, and hence all the problems.
    The reality is that leaving the single market creates unsolvable problems at the Irish border, while staying in the single market leaves the Leave campaign's central pillar of ending free movement unachieved. What a mess!
    Great header by the way.
    Exactly, until immigration is brought under control with free movement replaces by a points system staying in the Single Market is not an option without betraying one of the key platforms of the Leave vote.

    What are other key platforms of the Leave vote expendable?

    Regain sovereignty, end ECJ jurisdiction, stop sending money to Brussels etc.

    That was the Vote Leave platform and must be delivered

    All the benefits of EU membership with none of the downsides; a free trade zone fromt he Urals to Iceland; absolutely no change tot he status of the Irish border. All key platforms of the Leave campaign. All abandoned.

    But I agree, the Leave campaign was run by people who want to deregulate the UK economy, degrade the environment, cut public spending and reduce workers' rights, using cutting immigration as their wedge issue.

    So how do all the promises of increased government spending and increased Living Wage fit into your conspiracy theory ?

    Why would I disbelieve the words, motives and intentions of people who promised that Brexit woud deliver all the benefits of EU membership with none of the downsides, and would involve absolutely no change to the Irish border? Maybe I am just a cynic.

  • I am presuming somebody said humbug in the rugby.
  • Have we stopped having posts about strawberry availability in the Tesco Metro near the M1 outside Luton? Because it looks like the fruit rotting in the fields story is carrying on.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

    The supermarkets are still full of British fruit, rather more raspberries than strawberries currently, and plenty with yellow stickers on them by the end of the day.

    So if you want to be a cheerleader for exploitative farmers who wont pay the going rate or invest in new equipment please go ahead.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Utterly crushing news for Corbyn Labour as they face collapsing to third losing Remainers to the LDs and Leavers to the Tories and the Brexit Party
    Perhaps Lab coming 3rd is the only way to secure the removal of Corbyn and his cranks?
    "We weren't socialist enough, Comrades. One more heave!"
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Utterly crushing news for Corbyn Labour as they face collapsing to third losing Remainers to the LDs and Leavers to the Tories and the Brexit Party
    But it has to happen though that’s the point. For people to go from can’t vote for them and then not actually voting for them. This is the flaw of all opinion polling that the methodologies need to overcome, do you actually believe what they are telling you so can predict a result this far out. Or, if the leader/party starts to appear less a threat and viewed more favourably once the starting gun is fired, that definitely not voting for them next time figure starts to change, Labour draw closer to Tories and further from libdems not by taking voters from Tories or libdems at all, just viewed differently with the oxygen of publicity the election gives them, brings the certainty to vote back from the depths you have correctly pointed.

    Now if you can’t build this into your election planning and sure you already know the margin of victory, then Jesus H Christ 😃

    Nahhhh. Here’s the real question, after the starting gun, if the polls narrow from the 12 point lead predicted in tonight’s you gov, at what point do you get concerned HY. Give a figure that would concern you HY, down to 7 points, down to five points. Does PV lead of 3 on the day give you what you need?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    TGOHF2 said:
    No extension and no general election - let the current lot of scummy MPs have to deliver their promise to the voters first.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    Exactly, until immigration is brought under control with free movement replaces by a points system staying in the Single Market is not an option without betraying one of the key platforms of the Leave vote.

    What are other key platforms of the Leave vote expendable?

    Regain sovereignty, end ECJ jurisdiction, stop sending money to Brussels etc.

    That was the Vote Leave platform and must be delivered

    All the benefits of EU membership with none of the downsides; a free trade zone fromt he Urals to Iceland; absolutely no change tot he status of the Irish border. All key platforms of the Leave campaign. All abandoned.

    But I agree, the Leave campaign was run by people who want to deregulate the UK economy, degrade the environment, cut public spending and reduce workers' rights, using cutting immigration as their wedge issue.

    So how do all the promises of increased government spending and increased Living Wage fit into your conspiracy theory ?

    Why would I disbelieve the words, motives and intentions of people who promised that Brexit woud deliver all the benefits of EU membership with none of the downsides, and would involve absolutely no change to the Irish border? Maybe I am just a cynic.

    So you can't answer the question.

    Let me I'll ask it again - how do promises of increased government spending and increased Living Wage fit into your conspiracy theory of a plan to cut government spending and reduce workers rights ?

    Perhaps you could also explain why Remainers are so supportive of farmers who want to pay less than the going rate ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Utterly crushing news for Corbyn Labour as they face collapsing to third losing Remainers to the LDs and Leavers to the Tories and the Brexit Party
    Perhaps Lab coming 3rd is the only way to secure the removal of Corbyn and his cranks?
    "We weren't socialist enough, Comrades. One more heave!"
    Yep. Could go either way. But. Big but. The fabled mass reselection of non-Corbyn worshipping MPs has not happened. So far two according to Newstatesman.

    Total flop.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    kinabalu said:

    Very good header.

    I have a settled opinion now on what the Johnson plan is.

    1. Be 'forced' to agree extension.
    2. Fight election on People v Quislings.
    3. Win a majority.
    4. Brexit with a Deal.

    The Deal to be -

    (i) WA with NI only backstop time limited for 7 years.
    (ii) PD rewritten to target a Canada style FTA.

    What I remain very unsure about is whether he will pull it off. Perhaps he won't get an election. Perhaps he will but will lose it.

    If he does pull it off only two words will suffice.

    Great Man.

    He might get to stage 4, but I don't think any deal will be temporary NI backstop plus Canada FTA. The first is far too problematic and the second too long drawn out and uncertain.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    The United Kingdom is a failed state, and the entire mess over Brexit could be resolved much more easily were it to be broken up. The sheer scale of the failure by our political system in general, and most of its constituent parties, has been colossal. Like the Palace of Westminster itself, the structure is rotten and the bulk of it simply needs tearing down and replacing with something better.

    Dramatic much? France is more of a failed state than we are, and nobody is proposing that they pack it in. We disagree about stuff. That's it.
    The partition of Ireland is a running sore. Scotland is dominated by nationalists. A core of anything between 35 and 45 percent of the population of both countries loathes rule from London, is desperate to escape and is not going to change its mind. Our difference of opinion over Europe has merely brought things to a head.

    Northern Ireland needs to go. In theory Great Britain as an entity could have a new lease of life, but in practice our politicians are too venal, incompetent, partisan and thick to make such a thing happen.

    There's little that the countries of the UK can achieve as a single unit that they couldn't do more effectively separately, and they'd be free to chart their own course. If the Union ceased to exist, there would be about as much enthusiasm for re-establishing it as one would find for that proposition in Dublin, i.e. zero.

    The Union, as a project, has at its core an ancient political agreement between Scotland and England that came about because England wanted to rid itself of a potential military threat on its northern border, and Scotland wanted a stack of cash and a slice of the English empire. The original conditions that created the project have now been removed, and the project is dying as a result. Why not put it out of its misery?
    Corbyn has tried to run on a ticket of despising his own country - its not proving popular at all.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    HYUFD said:

    The key difference between Boris and May is Boris ensured he had DUP and ERG support (and thus a likely Commons majority) before making his proposals to the EU

    You've just reassured me that it is worth reading your posts. In amongst the tsunami of bollocks is the occasional pearl of wisdom such as this.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,342
    Very interesting article. Brexit has been going on so long that already its past is a foreign country. IIRC the reality at the time was something like this:

    It was emerging that reconciling the aims of the GFA/open border and Brexit was going to be impossible unless we stayed in the SM and CU or a black swan appeared.

    This was embarrassing (as well as an opportunity) for all, because Remain had never campaigned on the basis that the really big reason for Remain is that we CAN'T leave - that in practice it is impossible because of the SM and big business and Ireland, GFA and all the other reasons elites understood to be the case, and that we had got this far in without ever being seriously asked our permission.

    Leave had campaigned on the basis that unicorns abounded. They also believed that 'Nothing is agreed until Everything is agreed'.

    The December agreement squared the DUP for now so everything was OK, as NIAUEIA.

    So it's Christmas 2017. Rejoice. The can had been kicked down the road. At some point an irresistible force meets an immovable object, but it wasn't in December 2017. It's going to be October 2019. Except it isn't.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    Exactly, until immigration is brought under control with free movement replaces by a points system staying in the Single Market is not an option without betraying one of the key platforms of the Leave vote.

    What are other key platforms of the Leave vote expendable?

    Regain sovereignty, end ECJ jurisdiction, stop sending money to Brussels etc.

    That was the Vote Leave platform and must be delivered

    All the benefits of EU membership with none of the downsides; a free trade zone fromt he Urals to Iceland; absolutely no change tot he status of the Irish border. All key platforms of the Leave campaign. All abandoned.

    But I agree, the Leave campaign was run by people who want to deregulate the UK economy, degrade the environment, cut public spending and reduce workers' rights, using cutting immigration as their wedge issue.

    So how do all the promises of increased government spending and increased Living Wage fit into your conspiracy theory ?

    Why would I disbelieve the words, motives and intentions of people who promised that Brexit woud deliver all the benefits of EU membership with none of the downsides, and would involve absolutely no change to the Irish border? Maybe I am just a cynic.

    So you can't answer the question.

    Let me I'll ask it again - how do promises of increased government spending and increased Living Wage fit into your conspiracy theory of a plan to cut government spending and reduce workers rights ?

    Perhaps you could also explain why Remainers are so supportive of farmers who want to pay less than the going rate ?

    I did answer your question. I do not believe the promises. I believe that the Johnson government is saying what it believes is necessary to win a general election. Just as they said what was necessary to win the referendum and are now not delivering what they promised.

    I am not sure that Remainers are supportive of farmers who want to pay less then the going rate. I'm not. But another Brexit promise is that prices in the shops will go down. Let's see if that happens.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    Oh Dear , and pearl clutchers on here think this is PM material
    Swinson fails to declare family company was given 3.5m euro by the European Union.
    Good old Lib Dems. Swinson fails to declare family company was given 3.5m euro by the European Union
    https://nyebevannews.co.uk/swinson-fails-to-declare-family-company-was-given-3-5m-euro-by-the-european-union/

    @malcolmg you’ve been had - this one is absolute crap

    (disclosure: Duncan is a buddy and I had coffee with him couple of weeks ago)

    Transparency International U.K. is a charity/lobbying organisation. It’s role is to produce research and lobby for legislation to eliminate corruption in both the public and private sectors in the UK and internationally.

    Part of this is funded by government organisations (he mentioned Dfid and the Dutch foreign ministry) and partly by foundations such as Joseph Rowntree. Not sure if the “3.5m grant” is the Dutch (probably) or a separate EU one

    I’d assume (haven’t checked) that it is a company limited by guarantee which is a very
    common legal structure for charities.

    In no way is this a “family company” as the article calls it
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    The other explanation is that the dog DID bark but was ignored at the time, and we don't remember it barking .

    No, it really didn't Check out the media reports at the time
    Aaron Bell wrote a good header on this subject a year ago.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/10/18/brexit-the-three-key-concessions/

    The DUP barked and were given para 50 which shut them up.

    David Davis had already barked about agreeing border conditions before an FTA (contents of para 49) and had resigned from government in protest earlier that year. He was ignored.

    We had a long discussion on here about paras 49 and 50 taken together which implied, according to some on here, that the whole of the UK would have to continue with at least regulatory and tariff alignment to avoid a hard border in Ireland.

    I suspect BJ's plan, after gaining a majority in a GE, is to throw the DUP under a bus and leave NI in the SM and EU (possibly with ROI looking after its interest in the EU). That solves the hard border problem and potentially saves the £11b subsidy to NI as it eventually rejoins the South.

    I'm surprised the DUP don't realise this. Perhaps they do but have a cunning plan ....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,849
    FF43 said:

    He might get to stage 4, but I don't think any deal will be temporary NI backstop plus Canada FTA. The first is far too problematic and the second too long drawn out and uncertain.

    OK but the main thing I'm sure about is that if he does win a majority he will do a Deal - perhaps something very close to the May Deal.

    He will NOT take us out with No Deal (since it would be lunacy).

    Do you agree with that?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Have we stopped having posts about strawberry availability in the Tesco Metro near the M1 outside Luton? Because it looks like the fruit rotting in the fields story is carrying on.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

    The supermarkets are still full of British fruit, rather more raspberries than strawberries currently, and plenty with yellow stickers on them by the end of the day.

    So if you want to be a cheerleader for exploitative farmers who wont pay the going rate or invest in new equipment please go ahead.
    Nonetheless when it was predicted that fruit would be rotting in the fields it was dismissed as project fear. And now it is happening.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,342
    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Very good header.

    I have a settled opinion now on what the Johnson plan is.

    1. Be 'forced' to agree extension.
    2. Fight election on People v Quislings.
    3. Win a majority.
    4. Brexit with a Deal.

    The Deal to be -

    (i) WA with NI only backstop time limited for 7 years.
    (ii) PD rewritten to target a Canada style FTA.

    What I remain very unsure about is whether he will pull it off. Perhaps he won't get an election. Perhaps he will but will lose it.

    If he does pull it off only two words will suffice.

    Great Man.

    He might get to stage 4, but I don't think any deal will be temporary NI backstop plus Canada FTA. The first is far too problematic and the second too long drawn out and uncertain.
    If the NI backstop were limited to being in place until Ireland as a whole decided its united future a surprising number of GB folks (and Irish too??) would quietly cheer. And Boris could be Peel and Gladstone all in one. It seems to be that the real commitment of GB to a disunited Ireland (ie UK as it now stands) is weak and minimal.

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited October 2019

    The United Kingdom is a failed state, and the entire mess over Brexit could be resolved much more easily were it to be broken up. The sheer scale of the failure by our political system in general, and most of its constituent parties, has been colossal. Like the Palace of Westminster itself, the structure is rotten and the bulk of it simply needs tearing down and replacing with something better.

    Dramatic much? France is more of a failed state than we are, and nobody is proposing that they pack it in. We disagree about stuff. That's it.
    The partition of Ireland is a running sore. Scotland is dominated by nationalists. A core of anything between 35 and 45 percent of the population of both countries loathes rule from London, is desperate to escape and is not going to change its mind. Our difference of opinion over Europe has merely brought things to a head.

    Northern Ireland needs to go. In theory Great Britain as an entity could have a new lease of life, but in practice our politicians are too venal, incompetent, partisan and thick to make such a thing happen.

    There's little that the countries of the UK can achieve as a single unit that they couldn't do more effectively separately, and they'd be free to chart their own course. If the Union ceased to exist, there would be about as much enthusiasm for re-establishing it as one would find for that proposition in Dublin, i.e. zero.

    The Union, as a project, has at its core an ancient political agreement between Scotland and England that came about because England wanted to rid itself of a potential military threat on its northern border, and Scotland wanted a stack of cash and a slice of the English empire. The original conditions that created the project have now been removed, and the project is dying as a result. Why not put it out of its misery?
    The Protestant religion and the British Empire were also features which no longer apply.

    The United Kingdom really has been a failure of nation building compared with Germany or Italy.
    We're simply going the same way as other temporary constructs like the Soviet Union and Austria-Hungary. The constituent parts command more identification and loyalty than the whole, which can therefore only survive so long as it isn't subjected to a sufficiently serious shock.

    The common imperial project is over, the political class is thoroughly discredited, and there's obviously no will or inclination to resort to force (thank goodness) to prevent secession. Now the debacle over Europe has swung a wrecking ball through the creaking structure. Collapse is therefore a virtual certainty.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    The key difference between Boris and May is Boris ensured he had DUP and ERG support (and thus a likely Commons majority) before making his proposals to the EU

    You've just reassured me that it is worth reading your posts. In amongst the tsunami of bollocks is the occasional pearl of wisdom such as this.
    They're worth reading for their consistancy alone. There aren't many posters you can say that about particlarly since we've been joined by the internationally renowned male model Byronic
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    GIN1138 said:

    Some BXP starting to realize Farage isn't really interested in getting Brexit done and just wants to posture (and possibly stay on the EU gravy train? ;) )
    BXP is a huge reservoir of potential GE support for the Conservatives. Way more important than some Remainer tactical voting. Farage having a tin-ear on Boris's efforts to deliver Brexit is a very interesting election pointer.

    Likely to see Tory polling nudging up as Brexit starts to slide. Which will make the Labour straw-grasping to prevent an election all the more entertining.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The United Kingdom is a failed state, and the entire mess over Brexit could be resolved much more easily were it to be broken up. The sheer scale of the failure by our political system in general, and most of its constituent parties, has been colossal. Like the Palace of Westminster itself, the structure is rotten and the bulk of it simply needs tearing down and replacing with something better.

    Dramatic much? France is more of a failed state than we are, and nobody is proposing that they pack it in. We disagree about stuff. That's it.
    The partition of Ireland is a running sore. Scotland is dominated by nationalists. A core of anything between 35 and 45 percent of the population of both countries loathes rule from London, is desperate to escape and is not going to change its mind. Our difference of opinion over Europe has merely brought things to a head.

    Northern Ireland needs to go. In theory Great Britain as an entity could have a new lease of life, but in practice our politicians are too venal, incompetent, partisan and thick to make such a thing happen.

    There's little that the countries of the UK can achieve as a single unit that they couldn't do more effectively separately, and they'd be free to chart their own course. If the Union ceased to exist, there would be about as much enthusiasm for re-establishing it as one would find for that proposition in Dublin, i.e. zero.

    The Union, as a project, has at its core an ancient political agreement between Scotland and England that came about because England wanted to rid itself of a potential military threat on its northern border, and Scotland wanted a stack of cash and a slice of the English empire. The original conditions that created the project have now been removed, and the project is dying as a result. Why not put it out of its misery?
    The Protestant religion and the British Empire were also features which no longer apply.

    The United Kingdom really has been a failure of nation building compared with Germany or Italy.
    Italy is more divided between north and south than at any time since the Kingdom of the Two Sicilian
  • Have we stopped having posts about strawberry availability in the Tesco Metro near the M1 outside Luton? Because it looks like the fruit rotting in the fields story is carrying on.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

    The supermarkets are still full of British fruit, rather more raspberries than strawberries currently, and plenty with yellow stickers on them by the end of the day.

    So if you want to be a cheerleader for exploitative farmers who wont pay the going rate or invest in new equipment please go ahead.
    Nonetheless when it was predicted that fruit would be rotting in the fields it was dismissed as project fear. And now it is happening.
    Food has ALWAYS rotted in the fields.

    Anyone who has been to a PYO or looked at an apple tree or walked across a potato field knows that.

    And that's before we get to the food which rots in the supermarket or rots in the home.

    Are you some sort of 'no strawberry must be left behind' lunatic as well as been a useful idiot for exploitative farmers ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    HYUFD said:

    The key difference between Boris and May is Boris ensured he had DUP and ERG support (and thus a likely Commons majority) before making his proposals to the EU

    You've just reassured me that it is worth reading your posts. In amongst the tsunami of bollocks is the occasional pearl of wisdom such as this.
    Whisper it, but your tsunami of bollocks klaxon might need re-calibrating.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    kinabalu said:

    Very good header.

    I have a settled opinion now on what the Johnson plan is.

    1. Be 'forced' to agree extension.
    2. Fight election on People v Quislings.
    3. Win a majority.
    4. Brexit with a Deal.

    The Deal to be -

    (i) WA with NI only backstop time limited for 7 years.
    (ii) PD rewritten to target a Canada style FTA.

    What I remain very unsure about is whether he will pull it off. Perhaps he won't get an election. Perhaps he will but will lose it.

    If he does pull it off only two words will suffice.

    Great Man.

    "Great Man". Take a lie down.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Rook, one might argue that the UK was fine until devolution and the EU came along.

    As I wrote in my PB article about the security schism, if you embed political divisions institutionally, the divisions can deepen very rapidly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Have we stopped having posts about strawberry availability in the Tesco Metro near the M1 outside Luton? Because it looks like the fruit rotting in the fields story is carrying on.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

    The supermarkets are still full of British fruit, rather more raspberries than strawberries currently, and plenty with yellow stickers on them by the end of the day.

    So if you want to be a cheerleader for exploitative farmers who wont pay the going rate or invest in new equipment please go ahead.
    Nonetheless when it was predicted that fruit would be rotting in the fields it was dismissed as project fear. And now it is happening.
    Food has ALWAYS rotted in the fields.

    Anyone who has been to a PYO or looked at an apple tree or walked across a potato field knows that.

    And that's before we get to the food which rots in the supermarket or rots in the home.

    Are you some sort of 'no strawberry must be left behind' lunatic as well as been a useful idiot for exploitative farmers ?
    The local apple festival has been cancelled next week because the orchards are waterlogged....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Roger said:

    kinabalu said:

    Very good header.

    I have a settled opinion now on what the Johnson plan is.

    1. Be 'forced' to agree extension.
    2. Fight election on People v Quislings.
    3. Win a majority.
    4. Brexit with a Deal.

    The Deal to be -

    (i) WA with NI only backstop time limited for 7 years.
    (ii) PD rewritten to target a Canada style FTA.

    What I remain very unsure about is whether he will pull it off. Perhaps he won't get an election. Perhaps he will but will lose it.

    If he does pull it off only two words will suffice.

    Great Man.

    "Great Man". Take a lie down.
    He is at least 25% responsible for soiling us in the first place. He should be exiled to Stoke for life.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    I am starting to wonder what happens if the election is 40-25-20 with the Lib Dems ahead of Labour. Could a landslide for Bozza.
  • Have we stopped having posts about strawberry availability in the Tesco Metro near the M1 outside Luton? Because it looks like the fruit rotting in the fields story is carrying on.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

    The supermarkets are still full of British fruit, rather more raspberries than strawberries currently, and plenty with yellow stickers on them by the end of the day.

    So if you want to be a cheerleader for exploitative farmers who wont pay the going rate or invest in new equipment please go ahead.
    Nonetheless when it was predicted that fruit would be rotting in the fields it was dismissed as project fear. And now it is happening.
    Food has ALWAYS rotted in the fields.

    Anyone who has been to a PYO or looked at an apple tree or walked across a potato field knows that.

    And that's before we get to the food which rots in the supermarket or rots in the home.

    Are you some sort of 'no strawberry must be left behind' lunatic as well as been a useful idiot for exploitative farmers ?

    Is all British fruit only intended for the UK market? Is it possible that farmers who are not able to harvest their crops and then sell them are actually going to be less likely to pay decent wages in the future?

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    TGOHF2 said:

    The United Kingdom is a failed state, and the entire mess over Brexit could be resolved much more easily were it to be broken up. The sheer scale of the failure by our political system in general, and most of its constituent parties, has been colossal. Like the Palace of Westminster itself, the structure is rotten and the bulk of it simply needs tearing down and replacing with something better.

    Dramatic much? France is more of a failed state than we are, and nobody is proposing that they pack it in. We disagree about stuff. That's it.
    The partition of Ireland is a running sore. Scotland is dominated by nationalists. A core of anything between 35 and 45 percent of the population of both countries loathes rule from London, is desperate to escape and is not going to change its mind. Our difference of opinion over Europe has merely brought things to a head.

    Northern Ireland needs to go. In theory Great Britain as an entity could have a new lease of life, but in practice our politicians are too venal, incompetent, partisan and thick to make such a thing happen.

    There's little that the countries of the UK can achieve as a single unit that they couldn't do more effectively separately, and they'd be free to chart their own course. If the Union ceased to exist, there would be about as much enthusiasm for re-establishing it as one would find for that proposition in Dublin, i.e. zero.

    The Union, as a project, has at its core an ancient political agreement between Scotland and England that came about because England wanted to rid itself of a potential military threat on its northern border, and Scotland wanted a stack of cash and a slice of the English empire. The original conditions that created the project have now been removed, and the project is dying as a result. Why not put it out of its misery?
    Corbyn has tried to run on a ticket of despising his own country - its not proving popular at all.
    There are a multitude of issues that mitigate against public support for Corbynite Labour. I somehow doubt that being a bit lukewarm about Unionism is anywhere near the top of the list.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Utterly crushing news for Corbyn Labour as they face collapsing to third losing Remainers to the LDs and Leavers to the Tories and the Brexit Party
    When the polling comes closer together, and jezzers and labourites are crowing at you they are taking votes off Tory’s and off Boris, and all oh Jeremy Corbyn, just as I told you it’s not true I will tell them they are blitheringly wrong.

    Cut this out and keep it. Labours vote share been suppressed due to such high ‘voted for them last time definitely not next time’. And this is not exclusively but massively down to their Brexit position. Their Brexit position is equivocal, a slow burner designed for an election campaign not immediate coke hit in polls.
  • Have we stopped having posts about strawberry availability in the Tesco Metro near the M1 outside Luton? Because it looks like the fruit rotting in the fields story is carrying on.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

    The supermarkets are still full of British fruit, rather more raspberries than strawberries currently, and plenty with yellow stickers on them by the end of the day.

    So if you want to be a cheerleader for exploitative farmers who wont pay the going rate or invest in new equipment please go ahead.
    Nonetheless when it was predicted that fruit would be rotting in the fields it was dismissed as project fear. And now it is happening.
    Food has ALWAYS rotted in the fields.

    Anyone who has been to a PYO or looked at an apple tree or walked across a potato field knows that.

    And that's before we get to the food which rots in the supermarket or rots in the home.

    Are you some sort of 'no strawberry must be left behind' lunatic as well as being a useful idiot for exploitative farmers ?
    The local apple festival has been cancelled next week because the orchards are waterlogged....
    That's too reality based for the PB Remainers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Max, I'd be very surprised if the Conservatives hit 40%.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    kinabalu said:

    Very good header.

    I have a settled opinion now on what the Johnson plan is.

    1. Be 'forced' to agree extension.
    2. Fight election on People v Quislings.
    3. Win a majority.
    4. Brexit with a Deal.

    The Deal to be -

    (i) WA with NI only backstop time limited for 7 years.
    (ii) PD rewritten to target a Canada style FTA.

    What I remain very unsure about is whether he will pull it off. Perhaps he won't get an election. Perhaps he will but will lose it.

    If he does pull it off only two words will suffice.

    Great Man.

    "Great Man". Take a lie down.
    He is at least 25% responsible for soiling us in the first place. He should be exiled to Stoke for life.
    Just to say that in the past week I have been to both Middlesbrough and Stoke.

  • It appears somebody drop the h word in the rugby again.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Boris Johnson will join a long list of political leaders who screwed their country to further their personal ambition. Some it could be argued improved their country in in the process. Boris Johnson isn't one of them
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    TGOHF2 said:

    The United Kingdom is a failed state, and the entire mess over Brexit could be resolved much more easily were it to be broken up. The sheer scale of the failure by our political system in general, and most of its constituent parties, has been colossal. Like the Palace of Westminster itself, the structure is rotten and the bulk of it simply needs tearing down and replacing with something better.

    Dramatic much? France is more of a failed state than we are, and nobody is proposing that they pack it in. We disagree about stuff. That's it.
    The partition of Ireland is a running sore. Scotland is dominated by nationalists. A core of anything between 35 and 45 percent of the population of both countries loathes rule from London, is desperate to escape and is not going to change its mind. Our difference of opinion over Europe has merely brought things to a head.

    Northern Ireland needs to go. In theory Great Britain as an entity could have a new lease of life, but in practice our politicians are too venal, incompetent, partisan and thick to make such a thing happen.

    There's little that the countries of the UK can achieve as a single unit that they couldn't do more effectively separately, and they'd be free to chart their own course. If the Union ceased to exist, there would be about as much enthusiasm for re-establishing it as one would find for that proposition in Dublin, i.e. zero.

    The Union, as a project, has at its core an ancient political agreement between Scotland and England that came about because England wanted to rid itself of a potential military threat on its northern border, and Scotland wanted a stack of cash and a slice of the English empire. The original conditions that created the project have now been removed, and the project is dying as a result. Why not put it out of its misery?
    Corbyn has tried to run on a ticket of despising his own country - its not proving popular at all.
    There are a multitude of issues that mitigate against public support for Corbynite Labour. I somehow doubt that being a bit lukewarm about Unionism is anywhere near the top of the list.
    That's not at all what he said
  • Have we stopped having posts about strawberry availability in the Tesco Metro near the M1 outside Luton? Because it looks like the fruit rotting in the fields story is carrying on.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

    The supermarkets are still full of British fruit, rather more raspberries than strawberries currently, and plenty with yellow stickers on them by the end of the day.

    So if you want to be a cheerleader for exploitative farmers who wont pay the going rate or invest in new equipment please go ahead.
    Nonetheless when it was predicted that fruit would be rotting in the fields it was dismissed as project fear. And now it is happening.
    Food has ALWAYS rotted in the fields.

    Anyone who has been to a PYO or looked at an apple tree or walked across a potato field knows that.

    And that's before we get to the food which rots in the supermarket or rots in the home.

    Are you some sort of 'no strawberry must be left behind' lunatic as well as being a useful idiot for exploitative farmers ?

    Is all British fruit only intended for the UK market? Is it possible that farmers who are not able to harvest their crops and then sell them are actually going to be less likely to pay decent wages in the future?

    If British farmers are producing for export they should be able to afford higher wages because of the currency changes.

    But this is straight supply and demand - employers who don't offer fair pay and conditions struggle to get a workforce.

    That happens in all sectors and at all times.

    And I have zero sympathy for such businesses.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Have we stopped having posts about strawberry availability in the Tesco Metro near the M1 outside Luton? Because it looks like the fruit rotting in the fields story is carrying on.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

    The supermarkets are still full of British fruit, rather more raspberries than strawberries currently, and plenty with yellow stickers on them by the end of the day.

    So if you want to be a cheerleader for exploitative farmers who wont pay the going rate or invest in new equipment please go ahead.
    Nonetheless when it was predicted that fruit would be rotting in the fields it was dismissed as project fear. And now it is happening.
    You are seriously blaming Brexit, which hasn't happened yet?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    kinabalu said:

    Very good header.

    I have a settled opinion now on what the Johnson plan is.

    1. Be 'forced' to agree extension.
    2. Fight election on People v Quislings.
    3. Win a majority.
    4. Brexit with a Deal.

    The Deal to be -

    (i) WA with NI only backstop time limited for 7 years.
    (ii) PD rewritten to target a Canada style FTA.

    What I remain very unsure about is whether he will pull it off. Perhaps he won't get an election. Perhaps he will but will lose it.

    If he does pull it off only two words will suffice.

    Great Man.

    "Great Man". Take a lie down.
    He is at least 25% responsible for soiling us in the first place. He should be exiled to Stoke for life.
    Just to say that in the past week I have been to both Middlesbrough and Stoke.

    Among friends then. There aren't too many Labour supporting leavers
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Floater said:

    Have we stopped having posts about strawberry availability in the Tesco Metro near the M1 outside Luton? Because it looks like the fruit rotting in the fields story is carrying on.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

    The supermarkets are still full of British fruit, rather more raspberries than strawberries currently, and plenty with yellow stickers on them by the end of the day.

    So if you want to be a cheerleader for exploitative farmers who wont pay the going rate or invest in new equipment please go ahead.
    Nonetheless when it was predicted that fruit would be rotting in the fields it was dismissed as project fear. And now it is happening.
    You are seriously blaming Brexit, which hasn't happened yet?
    Have you read the article?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,849

    We're simply going the same way as other temporary constructs like the Soviet Union and Austria-Hungary. The constituent parts command more identification and loyalty than the whole, which can therefore only survive so long as it isn't subjected to a sufficiently serious shock.

    The common imperial project is over, the political class is thoroughly discredited, and there's obviously no will or inclination to resort to force (thank goodness) to prevent secession. Now the debacle over Europe has swung a wrecking ball through the creaking structure. Collapse is therefore a virtual certainty.

    Think so. It was the main reason I hoped for 'Yes' to win in 2014. The break will happen before too long so good to do it sooner in stable friendship rather than risk it being later in volatile animosity.

    Technical objection, though, about the Union being a 'temporary construct'.

    I think that's harsh. 1707 is dim and distant. It has been more permanent than temporary.

    For example, if the Irish Backstop had a sunset clause to be activated in the year of Our Lord 2331, would the DUP be happy with that? I bet they wouldn't.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673
    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    Oh Dear , and pearl clutchers on here think this is PM material
    Swinson fails to declare family company was given 3.5m euro by the European Union.
    Good old Lib Dems. Swinson fails to declare family company was given 3.5m euro by the European Union
    https://nyebevannews.co.uk/swinson-fails-to-declare-family-company-was-given-3-5m-euro-by-the-european-union/

    @malcolmg you’ve been had - this one is absolute crap

    (disclosure: Duncan is a buddy and I had coffee with him couple of weeks ago)

    Transparency International U.K. is a charity/lobbying organisation. It’s role is to produce research and lobby for legislation to eliminate corruption in both the public and private sectors in the UK and internationally.

    Part of this is funded by government organisations (he mentioned Dfid and the Dutch foreign ministry) and partly by foundations such as Joseph Rowntree. Not sure if the “3.5m grant” is the Dutch (probably) or a separate EU one

    I’d assume (haven’t checked) that it is a company limited by guarantee which is a very
    common legal structure for charities.

    In no way is this a “family company” as the article calls it
    Charles, nice to defend your buddy , but does not make me any more comfortable. It looks like a duck and walks like a duck to me, these politicians , ex politicians and Lib Dems in particular hoover up money from all sorts of places, interested parties , dodgy stuff , etc etc . Just another example that these people are only looking after themselves and spouting whatever position they think will benefit them , whilst their other personas are dealing with the other side , interested parties who gain , etc etc. Politics in Westminster is rotten to the core with chancers filling their boots.
    One thing is for sure your chum and Swinson will be millionaires and well looked after, unlike the poor etc who she voted constantly to have their pittances cut.
    You have to wonder how these people sleep at night.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673
    MaxPB said:

    I am starting to wonder what happens if the election is 40-25-20 with the Lib Dems ahead of Labour. Could a landslide for Bozza.

    Lib Dems will not be ahead of Labour, that is a dream
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Mr. Rook, one might argue that the UK was fine until devolution and the EU came along.

    As I wrote in my PB article about the security schism, if you embed political divisions institutionally, the divisions can deepen very rapidly.

    Northern Ireland has, of course, always been a serious problem. Ireland should never have been partitioned in the first place.

    Great Britain was relatively stable during the post-War consensus, but as soon as a majority in England began to embrace the Thatcher reforms the country started to fall apart. It's just that, in amongst the generalised left-right battle of the time, it took time for most of us to notice.

    But yes, it's devolution that's really finished the UK off - possibly not the process of devolution itself, but certainly the astonishingly incompetent fashion in which it was implemented, which is entirely the fault of the Labour Party. The best that can be said is that Labour has been severely punished for its mistake: with Scottish Labour permanently reduced to a rump and the Welsh branch beginning to circle the plughole, its chances of ever winning another General Election outright appear - mercifully - to be remote.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    I am starting to wonder what happens if the election is 40-25-20 with the Lib Dems ahead of Labour. Could a landslide for Bozza.

    Lib Dems will not be ahead of Labour, that is a dream
    It would hardly matter if the Liberal Democrat share of the vote actually were greater than Labour's - unless they were to poll well in excess of 30%, which ain't going to happen.

    Labour would have to go sub-20% to win less than 200 seats. That ain't going to happen either.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    Mr. Rook, one might argue that the UK was fine until devolution and the EU came along.

    As I wrote in my PB article about the security schism, if you embed political divisions institutionally, the divisions can deepen very rapidly.

    Northern Ireland has, of course, always been a serious problem. Ireland should never have been partitioned in the first place.

    Great Britain was relatively stable during the post-War consensus, but as soon as a majority in England began to embrace the Thatcher reforms the country started to fall apart. It's just that, in amongst the generalised left-right battle of the time, it took time for most of us to notice.

    But yes, it's devolution that's really finished the UK off - possibly not the process of devolution itself, but certainly the astonishingly incompetent fashion in which it was implemented, which is entirely the fault of the Labour Party. The best that can be said is that Labour has been severely punished for its mistake: with Scottish Labour permanently reduced to a rump and the Welsh branch beginning to circle the plughole, its chances of ever winning another General Election outright appear - mercifully - to be remote.
    Keep going - eventually you will be arguing that joining Wessex to Mercia was a grave error by Alfred and Dudley is due reparations.
  • Have we stopped having posts about strawberry availability in the Tesco Metro near the M1 outside Luton? Because it looks like the fruit rotting in the fields story is carrying on.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

    The supermarkets are still full of British fruit, rather more raspberries than strawberries currently, and plenty with yellow stickers on them by the end of the day.

    So if you want to be a cheerleader for exploitative farmers who wont pay the going rate or invest in new equipment please go ahead.
    Nonetheless when it was predicted that fruit would be rotting in the fields it was dismissed as project fear. And now it is happening.
    Food has ALWAYS rotted in the fields.

    Anyone who has been to a PYO or looked at an apple tree or walked across a potato field knows that.

    And that's before we get to the food which rots in the supermarket or rots in the home.

    Are you some sort of 'no strawberry must be left behind' lunatic as well as being a useful idiot for exploitative farmers ?

    Is all British fruit only intended for the UK market? Is it possible that farmers who are not able to harvest their crops and then sell them are actually going to be less likely to pay decent wages in the future?

    If British farmers are producing for export they should be able to afford higher wages because of the currency changes.

    But this is straight supply and demand - employers who don't offer fair pay and conditions struggle to get a workforce.

    That happens in all sectors and at all times.

    And I have zero sympathy for such businesses.

    The problem for British farmeers is that they tend to supply supermarkets that have huge purchasing power. They will only buy at certain prices. That leaves farmers - especially smaller ones - extremely vulnerable. I am sure there are plenty who pay crap wages and explout their workers, and I have zero sympathy for them, but in the end the market is telling farmers that if they do not sell at a certain level, no-one is going to buy. When it comes down to it, we are the market. And we do not want to pay higher prices.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,849
    Roger said:

    "Great Man". Take a lie down.

    Yes, sorry, and I will. But it would be a genuine political achievement if he ends up winning a GE majority AND getting a Brexit deal done. Can't say I'm rooting for him, obviously. In fact I would shed tears.
  • Ilford South Labour selection scheduled for today

    Background:
    4 shortlisted. 1 withdrew last week
    3 left standing:
    Sam Tarry backed by Momentum. With 5 branch nominations.
    Jas Athwal, Redbridge council leader. With 4 branch nominations.
    A woman from St Albans

    Last night:
    Athwal is suspended by the party for some allegations we don't know. Party sources claim the process was invesitigated by an external "investigator".

    This morning
    CLP selection committee suspends the selection. Note that postal vote was allowed and so some have voted for a candidate now barred from standing.
    Regional office over-rule the selection committee and order the selection to go ahead.
    Now apparently leader office stepped in and suspended the selection

    Maybe more u-turns and chaos to follow...stay tuned.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,043

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key difference between Boris and May is Boris ensured he had DUP and ERG support (and thus a likely Commons majority) before making his proposals to the EU

    And the ERG and the DUP are enough for the deal (were it to be accepted by the EU) to get through Parliament.

    I suspect Boris still doesn't have the numbers.

    Neither the ERG nor the DUP can back any deal acceptable to the EU.

    They can, and if the EU had not been go v

    The United Kingdom is a failed state, and the entire mess over Brexit could be resolved much more easily were it to be broken up. The sheer scale of the failure by our political system in general, and most of its constituent parties, has been colossal. Like the Palace of Westminster itself, the structure is rotten and the bulk of it simply needs tearing down and replacing with something better.

    Dramatic much? France is more of a failed state than we are, and nobody is proposing that they pack it in. We disagree about stuff. That's it.
    The partition of Ireland is a running sore. Scotland is dominated by nationalists. A core of anything between 35 and 45 percent of the population of both countries loathes rule from London, is desperate to escape and is not going to change its mind. Our difference of opinion over Europe has merely brought things to a head.

    Northern Ireland needs to go. In theory Great Britain as an entity could have a new lease of life, but in practice our politicians are too venal, incompetent, partisan and thick to make such a thing happen.

    There's little that the countries of the UK can achieve as a single unit that they couldn't do more effectively separately, and they'd be free to chart their own course. If the Union ceased to exist, there would be about as much enthusiasm for re-establishing it as one would find for that proposition in Dublin, i.e. zero.

    The Union, as a project, has at its core an ancient political agreement between Scotland and England that came about because England wanted to rid itself of a potential military threat on its northern border, and Scotland wanted a stack of cash and a slice of the English empire. The original conditions that created the project have now been removed, and the project is dying as a result. Why not put it out of its misery?
    Yet you contradict yourself, because your post is a supreme example of that archetypally British glass is half empty drizzly self-deprecating pessimism in the face of very few real problems that all of our great home nations share. :wink:

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673

    Have we stopped having posts about strawberry availability in the Tesco Metro near the M1 outside Luton? Because it looks like the fruit rotting in the fields story is carrying on.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

    The supermarkets are still full of British fruit, rather more raspberries than strawberries currently, and plenty with yellow stickers on them by the end of the day.

    So if you want to be a cheerleader for exploitative farmers who wont pay the going rate or invest in new equipment please go ahead.
    Nonetheless when it was predicted that fruit would be rotting in the fields it was dismissed as project fear. And now it is happening.
    Food has ALWAYS rotted in the fields.

    Anyone who has been to a PYO or looked at an apple tree or walked across a potato field knows that.

    And that's before we get to the food which rots in the supermarket or rots in the home.

    Are you some sort of 'no strawberry must be left behind' lunatic as well as being a useful idiot for exploitative farmers ?

    Is all British fruit only intended for the UK market? Is it possible that farmers who are not able to harvest their crops and then sell them are actually going to be less likely to pay decent wages in the future?

    If British farmers are producing for export they should be able to afford higher wages because of the currency changes.

    But this is straight supply and demand - employers who don't offer fair pay and conditions struggle to get a workforce.

    That happens in all sectors and at all times.

    And I have zero sympathy for such businesses.

    The problem for British farmeers is that they tend to supply supermarkets that have huge purchasing power. They will only buy at certain prices. That leaves farmers - especially smaller ones - extremely vulnerable. I am sure there are plenty who pay crap wages and explout their workers, and I have zero sympathy for them, but in the end the market is telling farmers that if they do not sell at a certain level, no-one is going to buy. When it comes down to it, we are the market. And we do not want to pay higher prices.

    That option will soon not be available, it will be high price or starve
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    The key difference between Boris and May is Boris ensured he had DUP and ERG support (and thus a likely Commons majority) before making his proposals to the EU

    You've just reassured me that it is worth reading your posts. In amongst the tsunami of bollocks is the occasional pearl of wisdom such as this.
    Thank you glad you found something still of interest from me
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    I am starting to wonder what happens if the election is 40-25-20 with the Lib Dems ahead of Labour. Could a landslide for Bozza.

    Lib Dems will not be ahead of Labour, that is a dream
    In voteshare the LDs already are ahead of Labour with Yougov
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673
    HYUFD said:
    Are there any people stupid enough to believe this tripe, ooops the country is full of them
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited October 2019
  • HYUFD said:
    I just don't see the UK as being the weak, powerless, helpless victim the Brexit loons believe it to be.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    GIN1138 said:

    Some BXP starting to realize Farage isn't really interested in getting Brexit done and just wants to posture (and possibly stay on the EU gravy train? ;) )
    BXP is a huge reservoir of potential GE support for the Conservatives. Way more important than some Remainer tactical voting. Farage having a tin-ear on Boris's efforts to deliver Brexit is a very interesting election pointer.

    Likely to see Tory polling nudging up as Brexit starts to slide. Which will make the Labour straw-grasping to prevent an election all the more entertining.
    It's hard to see how Labour avoids a general election if they defeat the government on the Queens Speech.
  • Ilford South Labour selection scheduled for today

    Background:
    4 shortlisted. 1 withdrew last week
    3 left standing:
    Sam Tarry backed by Momentum. With 5 branch nominations.
    Jas Athwal, Redbridge council leader. With 4 branch nominations.
    A woman from St Albans

    Last night:
    Athwal is suspended by the party for some allegations we don't know. Party sources claim the process was invesitigated by an external "investigator".

    This morning
    CLP selection committee suspends the selection. Note that postal vote was allowed and so some have voted for a candidate now barred from standing.
    Regional office over-rule the selection committee and order the selection to go ahead.
    Now apparently leader office stepped in and suspended the selection

    Maybe more u-turns and chaos to follow...stay tuned.

    Jas Athwal made the very serious mistake of being a local, BAME, Labour moderate daring to run against white, Momentum-backed, Sam Tarry who is very closely linked to the Labour leadership and has spent much of his recent life living in Brighton.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Well done England on beating Argentina to get to the Rugby World Cup quarter finals
  • Have we stopped having posts about strawberry availability in the Tesco Metro near the M1 outside Luton? Because it looks like the fruit rotting in the fields story is carrying on.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

    The supermarkets are still full of British fruit, rather more raspberries than strawberries currently, and plenty with yellow stickers on them by the end of the day.

    So if you want to be a cheerleader for exploitative farmers who wont pay the going rate or invest in new equipment please go ahead.
    Nonetheless when it was predicted that fruit would be rotting in the fields it was dismissed as project fear. And now it is happening.
    Food has ALWAYS rotted in the fields.

    Anyone who has been to a PYO or looked at an apple tree or walked across a potato field knows that.

    And that's before we get to the food which rots in the supermarket or rots in the home.

    Are you some sort of 'no strawberry must be left behind' lunatic as well as being a useful idiot for exploitative farmers ?

    Is all British fruit only intended for the UK market? Is it possible that farmers who are not able to harvest their crops and then sell them are actually going to be less likely to pay decent wages in the future?

    If British farmers are producing for export they should be able to afford higher wages because of the currency changes.

    But this is straight supply and demand - employers who don't offer fair pay and conditions struggle to get a workforce.

    That happens in all sectors and at all times.

    And I have zero sympathy for such businesses.

    The problem for British farmeers is that they tend to supply supermarkets that have huge purchasing power. They will only buy at certain prices. That leaves farmers - especially smaller ones - extremely vulnerable. I am sure there are plenty who pay crap wages and explout their workers, and I have zero sympathy for them, but in the end the market is telling farmers that if they do not sell at a certain level, no-one is going to buy. When it comes down to it, we are the market. And we do not want to pay higher prices.

    That's a fair point.

    Customers want food cheap and plentiful and are willing to accept exploited workers and environmental damage to get it.

    I doubt its sustainable in the long term but there aren't many votes in higher food prices or, in much of the country, from turning farms into housing estates.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Did Harry do his by election summary for September?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    HYUFD said:
    I just don't see the UK as being the weak, powerless, helpless victim the Brexit loons believe it to be.

    ..
  • HYUFD said:
    I just don't see the UK as being the weak, powerless, helpless victim the Brexit loons believe it to be.

    As long as we remain within the EU we are.
This discussion has been closed.