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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 500/1 tip might just turn out be a winner

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    I'm not into football, but suspect promising to destroy the Premier League might not necessarily be to Corbyn's advantage.
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    Gabs2 said:

    Well, there will be plenty of time for the gambling adverts!
    When the fun stops - Stop

    It's like a little dagger in my heart every time that pops up
    NFL Redzone - 7hrs of commercial free coverage.

    Other sports should learn, as it is fantastic.
    I can never take the NFL seriously.

    First of all that padding and protection, man up, and be like rugby.

    Secondly the matches take forever, I've been in relationships that haven't lasted as long as an NFL match.
    The players are twice the size of rugby players and can hit you off the ball, meaning less bracing for impact. Given the life expectancy of NFL players is in the mid-50s, it is ridiculous to say it is less hard hitting.
    I believe the average length of an NFL career is 3 years.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991
    edited October 2019
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says she will likely stand down as an MSP in 2021 to take a charity or business role as well as focus more time on being a mother.

    However she does not rule out leading a future 'Better Together' campaign in any indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49952958

    Another massive loss to what used to be the Conservative Party.

    To an extent but as last week's Aberdeen council by election showed the Tory vote is still largely holding up despite Ruth's departure.

    It does increase the chances of the next non SNP and Unionist First Minister being a LD rather than a Tory though given the biggest gains in recent Scottish polls have been by the Scottish Liberal Democrats
    LOL, you are mental, you will not be living to see that unless independence comes.
    My long shot top is Swinson narrowly loses her Westminster seat to the SNP at the next election due to Tory tactical unwind over her anti Brexit stance, she then stands for Holyrood and becomes First Minister in 2021 instead after 14 years of SNP rule.

    Chuka then succeeds her as UK LD leader after winning his Cities of London and Westminster seat helped by Labour tactical voting and aims for PM in 2024
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,208
    It’s still unlikely Trump will be pushed out of office before the 2020 election but the odds are rising by the day. And Trump knows it, which is causing him to behave more like a wild child who deserves to be impeached.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/05/donald-trump-impeachment-republicans-senate
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,204
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Labour Looking for Election "This Side of Christmas" - Shami Chakrabarti

    Well, unless they come to an agreement with Johnson in the next 48 hours they've pretty much missed their opportunity, haven't they?

    Honestly, a phrase about breweries springs to mind with the current Labour Party.
    Aye. I can just about see a November election, but no one will want a December election.
    If a VoNC or an election agreement isn't sorted in the next few days, the window for November will be missed and then no one will want one in December.

    In fact, my view is that its either November, or not till next March. The six week campaign period practically makes it unlikely to have an election (and related campaign) span any of December or early January.
    In the 20th century we had three December elections - 1910 - 1918 - and 1923. January elections took place in 1910 and 1906 . February elections were held in 1950 and 1974. It is far from obvious that we need delay until March - particularly given the much greater availability of postal voting.
    Yes, and the December elections all have in common they took place 96 or more years ago.
    I would have thought that the practicalities of holding an election in December in those distant days were a fair more demanding that would be likely today - particularly given the ready availability of postal votes.
    You mean, in those distant days when the electorate was about half the size, life expectancy was around a third lower and we didn't have universal suffrage?
    The December 1918 GE must have been a challenge.

    Half of men in the military, often overseas, a little local difficulty in Ireland, women over 30 voting for the first time and Spanish Flu breaking out.

    It was. In fact, a very large number of serving servicemen were effectively disenfranchised for exactly that reason. If their ballot papers reached them, they often didn't get back to the returning officer in time to be counted.

    That's one reason why Churchill didn't want an election in 1945 while the war with Japan was ongoing. But in the end, it didn't prove to be such a problem as he expected.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991

    HYUFD said:
    29% for BJ the incumbent is not good at all! :wink: More than two thirds of the population prefer someone else...
    More back Boris as PM than back Corbyn and Swinson combined
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Floater said:

    HYUFD said:
    29% for BJ the incumbent is not good at all! :wink: More than two thirds of the population prefer someone else...
    But far worse for the others who don't actually have to make the decisions

    Corbyn's ratings are beyond dire.
    Historically, the incumbent should be way, way ahead even if they are unpopular. Nobody can really take any good news from that poll on political leadership as best PM. I do wonder if 29% is closer to the true level of Tory support as leader ratings have in the past mirrored party support, especially the party in Government.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    29% for BJ the incumbent is not good at all! :wink: More than two thirds of the population prefer someone else...
    More back Boris as PM than back Corbyn and Swinson combined
    Come on that is dire for Boris as a new PM. 70% of the population think someone else would be better at the job! BJ is a loser...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    I see jezza is now calling for the premier league to be nationalized.

    Isn't it easy to ask what won't be nationalised? :p
    The man is bonkers. He has called for all the billionaires to be driven out of owning clubs and for them to be stopped from running as businesses.

    The EPL is the most successful league in the world, but despite that most clubs only survive because these billionaires stick so much money out of their own pockets into them.

    What does he want, for us to going back to being an irrelevant league with every team only fielding players born within 10 miles of the club like back in "the good ol days"? But then he is a Brexit supporter....
    Even fan owned clubs like in Germany would be better than nationalised ones
    In all honesty, I believe that what he wants. I was joking about the nationalization.

    Yes they have Bayern, yes they have managed to sign up a few good English youngsters to be developed, but the world doesn't tune into the Bundesliga in the way they do the EPL. Nobody outside of Germany gives much of a crap about most of the games and Bayern Munich have normally won the league by January.

    The EPL is like Coke Cola, where ever you go, its on and people love it.
    Yes if the Premier League became like the Bundesliga tickets would be cheaper but La Liga in Spain would overtake the Premier League as the biggest global football league
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    Floater said:

    HYUFD said:
    29% for BJ the incumbent is not good at all! :wink: More than two thirds of the population prefer someone else...
    But far worse for the others who don't actually have to make the decisions

    Corbyn's ratings are beyond dire.
    Historically, the incumbent should be way, way ahead even if they are unpopular. Nobody can really take any good news from that poll on political leadership as best PM. I do wonder if 29% is closer to the true level of Tory support as leader ratings have in the past mirrored party support, especially the party in Government.
    As you saying Labour are on 14%?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991

    Floater said:

    HYUFD said:
    29% for BJ the incumbent is not good at all! :wink: More than two thirds of the population prefer someone else...
    But far worse for the others who don't actually have to make the decisions

    Corbyn's ratings are beyond dire.
    Historically, the incumbent should be way, way ahead even if they are unpopular. Nobody can really take any good news from that poll on political leadership as best PM. I do wonder if 29% is closer to the true level of Tory support as leader ratings have in the past mirrored party support, especially the party in Government.
    Not necessarily, Blair was well ahead of Major as best PM as was Cameron well ahead of Brown
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    I think the reality none of the leaders are particularly well liked, but people have to put a cross somewhere.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,208
    "Four months before the Iowa caucuses, it is time to reckon with the reality that Buttigieg probably has a better chance to be the Democratic nominee than anyone aside from Biden and the surging Warren."

    "When he speaks, people listen."

    https://newrepublic.com/article/155246/pete-buttigiegs-undeniable-allure
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121
    Gabs2 said:

    It still boggles the mind that a government explciitly created to represent one side in the biggest divide in Britain for 40 years can be described as a "unity government".

    Indeed. "Sanity government" would be more appropriate.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    I'm not into football, but suspect promising to destroy the Premier League might not necessarily be to Corbyn's advantage.

    In a way football fans are like all good socialists in that they want to spend other people’s money.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says she will likely stand down as an MSP in 2021 to take a charity or business role as well as focus more time on being a mother.

    However she does not rule out leading a future 'Better Together' campaign in any indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49952958

    I said as soon as she resigned as leader that she would have a nice holiday whilst taking the wages and then a nice cushy thinktank / public number with six figure salary. How very Tory.
    Would you rather she went into the private sector and the public wasn’t able to benefit from her experience?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    Sanitary even.
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    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:



    How would that work? With an extension being sought and agreed, and then by a 2/3 vote for an election?

    Whether the extension is agreed or not, the game will be played out by the 19th, when Johnson will either have sent the letter or not. At that point, the VONC will pass by 2/3.
    A VONC wouldn't trigger an election for fourteen days. That would take us into mid-December before it could take place and I really think that isn't going to happen.
    That assumes that the full fourteen days would be needed to find a replacement.
    Given that Swinson has vetoed Corbyn and Corbyn has vetoed everyone else, that seems to me a very safe assumption.
    Also assumes 5 week campaign. Can be shortened.
    Five minutes would be long enough for most of us.
    :lol: Brenda says '3' would be enough.
    In all seriousness, it would be a de facto 2nd ref. Since we've been deliberating Brexit for over three years, why do we need a campaign?
    Good point. Let's hold it this Thursday and have done.
    Good luck printing tens of millions of ballot papers in under a week ;)
    No need. A show of hands should do.
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    HYUFD said:
    29% for BJ the incumbent is not good at all! :wink: More than two thirds of the population prefer someone else...
    But far worse for the others who don't actually have to make the decisions

    Corbyn's ratings are beyond dire.
    Historically, the incumbent should be way, way ahead even if they are unpopular. Nobody can really take any good news from that poll on political leadership as best PM. I do wonder if 29% is closer to the true level of Tory support as leader ratings have in the past mirrored party support, especially the party in Government.
    Not necessarily, Blair was well ahead of Major as best PM as was Cameron well ahead of Brown
    Yes, they should either be well ahead or are in trouble i.e. John Major leading up to 1997. But I still remember he was on at least 30% IIRC. Didn't do him much good in 1997!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:



    How would that work? With an extension being sought and agreed, and then by a 2/3 vote for an election?

    Whether the extension is agreed or not, the game will be played out by the 19th, when Johnson will either have sent the letter or not. At that point, the VONC will pass by 2/3.
    A VONC wouldn't trigger an election for fourteen days. That would take us into mid-December before it could take place and I really think that isn't going to happen.
    That assumes that the full fourteen days would be needed to find a replacement.
    Given that Swinson has vetoed Corbyn and Corbyn has vetoed everyone else, that seems to me a very safe assumption.
    Also assumes 5 week campaign. Can be shortened.
    Five minutes would be long enough for most of us.
    :lol: Brenda says '3' would be enough.
    In all seriousness, it would be a de facto 2nd ref. Since we've been deliberating Brexit for over three years, why do we need a campaign?
    Good point. Let's hold it this Thursday and have done.
    Good luck printing tens of millions of ballot papers in under a week ;)
    No need. A show of hands should do.
    I understood this reference. :D
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    edited October 2019

    It’s still unlikely Trump will be pushed out of office before the 2020 election but the odds are rising by the day. And Trump knows it, which is causing him to behave more like a wild child who deserves to be impeached.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/05/donald-trump-impeachment-republicans-senate

    When he's gone America is going to need a process of detox and self-reflection.

    How did we allow that to happen?

    How can we ensure it never happens again?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,582
    HYUFD said:
    Me, me, me....

    The unhinged one doesn’t seem to be aware you can’t impeach a senator.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,204
    HYUFD said:
    Donald Trump is living proof that you should never post on Twitter while pissed.

    For any given meaning of that word.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:
    Does he mean "when he begged me to make him Secretary of State"?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,204
    kinabalu said:

    It’s still unlikely Trump will be pushed out of office before the 2020 election but the odds are rising by the day. And Trump knows it, which is causing him to behave more like a wild child who deserves to be impeached.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/05/donald-trump-impeachment-republicans-senate

    When he's gone America is going to need a process of detox and self-reflection.

    How did we allow that to happen?

    How can we ensure it never happens again?
    Not that we can talk. Right now we have a choice between someone slightly weirder, creepier and more dishonest than Trump, or somebody who is considerably weirder, creepier and more dishonest than both of them.
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    PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    HYUFD said:
    29% for BJ the incumbent is not good at all! :wink: More than two thirds of the population prefer someone else...
    Big block of don't knows in there.

    Also what strikes me is the comparison to the party votes further in the thread

    Con 38 Johnson 29
    Lab 23 Corbyn 14
    LD 15 Swinson 12
    BXP 12 Farage 7


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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,302
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    It’s still unlikely Trump will be pushed out of office before the 2020 election but the odds are rising by the day. And Trump knows it, which is causing him to behave more like a wild child who deserves to be impeached.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/05/donald-trump-impeachment-republicans-senate

    When he's gone America is going to need a process of detox and self-reflection.

    How did we allow that to happen?

    How can we ensure it never happens again?
    Not that we can talk. Right now we have a choice between someone slightly weirder, creepier and more dishonest than Trump, or somebody who is considerably weirder, creepier and more dishonest than both of them.
    At some point, both countries will get a leader emerge who is both charismatic and moderate. People will flock to them. the americans will get the opportunity every 4 years whereas we will have to wait until the resolution of Brexit.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,582
    Gabs2 said:

    Well, there will be plenty of time for the gambling adverts!
    When the fun stops - Stop

    It's like a little dagger in my heart every time that pops up
    NFL Redzone - 7hrs of commercial free coverage.

    Other sports should learn, as it is fantastic.
    I can never take the NFL seriously.

    First of all that padding and protection, man up, and be like rugby.

    Secondly the matches take forever, I've been in relationships that haven't lasted as long as an NFL match.
    The players are twice the size of rugby players and can hit you off the ball, meaning less bracing for impact. Given the life expectancy of NFL players is in the mid-50s, it is ridiculous to say it is less hard hitting.
    And given the breaks between plays, players run at full speed for considerably longer. And wearing armour facilitates much higher impacts.

    Actually, the idea that they adopt some of the ideas from rugby, and reform the tackle laws, is a very sensible one. The statistics for long term brain injury in the NFL are horrendous.


  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    Donald Trump is living proof that you should never post on Twitter while pissed.

    For any given meaning of that word.
    True but Trump may be mad yet he is certainly not boring
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,204
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:
    Me, me, me....

    The unhinged one doesn’t seem to be aware you can’t impeach a senator.
    I think you can, although it's only been attempted once and failed because the Senator in question refused to leave his home state to be tried. The Senate dismissed the case for lack of jurisdiction, but it doesn't seem it set a precedent that Senators could not be impeached.

    More here:
    https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44260
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,204
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    Donald Trump is living proof that you should never post on Twitter while pissed.

    For any given meaning of that word.
    True but Trump may be mad yet he is certainly not boring
    My grandmother's people are said to have a curse:

    May you live in interesting times.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,923
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says she will likely stand down as an MSP in 2021 to take a charity or business role as well as focus more time on being a mother.

    However she does not rule out leading a future 'Better Together' campaign in any indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49952958

    Another massive loss to what used to be the Conservative Party.

    To an extent but as last week's Aberdeen council by election showed the Tory vote is still largely holding up despite Ruth's departure.

    It does increase the chances of the next non SNP and Unionist First Minister being a LD rather than a Tory though given the biggest gains in recent Scottish polls have been by the Scottish Liberal Democrats
    LOL, you are mental, you will not be living to see that unless independence comes.
    My long shot top is Swinson narrowly loses her Westminster seat to the SNP at the next election due to Tory tactical unwind over her anti Brexit stance, she then stands for Holyrood and becomes First Minister in 2021 instead after 14 years of SNP rule.

    Chuka then succeeds her as UK LD leader after winning his Cities of London and Westminster seat helped by Labour tactical voting and aims for PM in 2024
    Your Scottish wish is a million miles out, the Lib Dems could not run a bath and will never be in power in Scotland.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    PaulM said:

    HYUFD said:
    29% for BJ the incumbent is not good at all! :wink: More than two thirds of the population prefer someone else...
    Big block of don't knows in there.

    Also what strikes me is the comparison to the party votes further in the thread

    Con 38 Johnson 29
    Lab 23 Corbyn 14
    LD 15 Swinson 12
    BXP 12 Farage 7


    Interesting point! One would have to look over the data for many years to build up a reliable feel. I just think it is dreadful polling and is not really polarisation but fragmentation and very messy politics.

    I watched an interesting lecture by Vernon Bogdanor on Parliament TV in the last year or so on the British party system. He predicated a multi-party system would be in the ascendant rather than a polarised one. He said given the 2017 election this was a bold assertion but it seems like a good hypothesis. He also stated in a lecture prior to this, that Brexit was a Government destroyer. When Boris gets removed that will be 3-0 to Brexit destroying Governments. I still think Brexit will not happen on the 31st of October 2019 by the way.
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    A very important point to remember is that Jeremy Corbyn does not want a government of national unity designed to prevent No Deal Brexit, he wants a minority Labour government that will stop No Deal as part of its programme. That is a very different creature. It means a cabinet and government composed solely of Labour MPs and also characters like Seamas Milne and Andrew Murray - who have spent their entire adult lives championing causes and regimes that are hostile to the UK - working inside Downing Street. There is no way on God's earth that any of the Tory rebels or the ex-Labour MPs sitting as independents, in CUK or the LDs are going to vote for that. They woud genuinely take No Deal over putting the likes Milne and Murray anywhere near the levers of power.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    A very important point to remember is that Jeremy Corbyn does not want a government of national unity designed to prevent No Deal Brexit, he wants a minority Labour government that will stop No Deal as part of its programme. That is a very different creature. It means a cabinet and government composed solely of Labour MPs and also characters like Seamas Milne and Andrew Murray - who have spent their entire adult lives championing causes and regimes that are hostile to the UK - working inside Downing Street. There is no way on God's earth that any of the Tory rebels or the ex-Labour MPs sitting as independents, in CUK or the LDs are going to vote for that. They woud genuinely take No Deal over putting the likes Milne and Murray anywhere near the levers of power.

    I hope you are right Southam, I really do.

    If they get in, getting rid might not be so easy.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    Donald Trump is living proof that you should never post on Twitter while pissed.

    For any given meaning of that word.
    True but Trump may be mad yet he is certainly not boring
    Many people agree that he is not boring, that include people I have met that are US citizens who are registered Democrats. Even though I think he is a bad President and one that is not just bad for the US but the World. I would certainly say he is interesting. Though it is starting to get tedious when anything he disagrees with is "fake news".

    We live in an information age but the problem is the information has become politicised and corrupted. Maybe when they first started mass communication in modern newspapers, people thought the same a few hundred years ago?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:



    How would that work? With an extension being sought and agreed, and then by a 2/3 vote for an election?

    Whether the extension is agreed or not, the game will be played out by the 19th, when Johnson will either have sent the letter or not. At that point, the VONC will pass by 2/3.
    A VONC wouldn't trigger an election for fourteen days. That would take us into mid-December before it could take place and I really think that isn't going to happen.
    That assumes that the full fourteen days would be needed to find a replacement.
    Given that Swinson has vetoed Corbyn and Corbyn has vetoed everyone else, that seems to me a very safe assumption.
    Also assumes 5 week campaign. Can be shortened.
    Five minutes would be long enough for most of us.
    :lol: Brenda says '3' would be enough.
    In all seriousness, it would be a de facto 2nd ref. Since we've been deliberating Brexit for over three years, why do we need a campaign?
    Good point. Let's hold it this Thursday and have done.
    Good luck printing tens of millions of ballot papers in under a week ;)
    No need. A show of hands should do.
    As long as your side does the counting a la Labour
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    HYUFD said:
    29% for BJ the incumbent is not good at all! :wink: More than two thirds of the population prefer someone else...
    But far worse for the others who don't actually have to make the decisions

    Corbyn's ratings are beyond dire.
    Historically, the incumbent should be way, way ahead even if they are unpopular. Nobody can really take any good news from that poll on political leadership as best PM. I do wonder if 29% is closer to the true level of Tory support as leader ratings have in the past mirrored party support, especially the party in Government.
    Not necessarily, Blair was well ahead of Major as best PM as was Cameron well ahead of Brown
    Its far easier to oppose than to do.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115

    HYUFD said:
    29% for BJ the incumbent is not good at all! :wink: More than two thirds of the population prefer someone else...
    He'll still take the direction of travel of all of those findings.....
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Labour Looking for Election "This Side of Christmas" - Shami Chakrabarti

    Well, unless they come to an agreement with Johnson in the next 48 hours they've pretty much missed their opportunity, haven't they?

    Honestly, a phrase about breweries springs to mind with the current Labour Party.
    Aye. I can just about see a November election, but no one will want a December election.
    If a VoNC or an election agreement isn't sorted in the next few days, the window for November will be missed and then no one will want one in December.

    In fact, my view is that its either November, or not till next March. The six week campaign period practically makes it unlikely to have an election (and related campaign) span any of December or early January.
    In the 20th century we had three December elections - 1910 - 1918 - and 1923. January elections took place in 1910 and 1906 . February elections were held in 1950 and 1974. It is far from obvious that we need delay until March - particularly given the much greater availability of postal voting.
    Yes, and the December elections all have in common they took place 96 or more years ago.
    I would have thought that the practicalities of holding an election in December in those distant days were a fair more demanding that would be likely today - particularly given the ready availability of postal votes.
    You mean, in those distant days when the electorate was about half the size, life expectancy was around a third lower and we didn't have universal suffrage?
    The December 1918 GE must have been a challenge.

    Half of men in the military, often overseas, a little local difficulty in Ireland, women over 30 voting for the first time and Spanish Flu breaking out.

    Turnout was only 57% - and there was much criticism that no arrangements were made to enable the troops abroad to vote.
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    Floater said:

    A very important point to remember is that Jeremy Corbyn does not want a government of national unity designed to prevent No Deal Brexit, he wants a minority Labour government that will stop No Deal as part of its programme. That is a very different creature. It means a cabinet and government composed solely of Labour MPs and also characters like Seamas Milne and Andrew Murray - who have spent their entire adult lives championing causes and regimes that are hostile to the UK - working inside Downing Street. There is no way on God's earth that any of the Tory rebels or the ex-Labour MPs sitting as independents, in CUK or the LDs are going to vote for that. They woud genuinely take No Deal over putting the likes Milne and Murray anywhere near the levers of power.

    I hope you are right Southam, I really do.

    If they get in, getting rid might not be so easy.

    I cannot see the Tory rebels or ex-Labour MPs ever voting to put Corbyn into Downing Street at th ehead of a minority Labour government. I do think they would take No Deal over that. That's why I think that either at the end of ths month, or some time early in 2020, No Deal is what we will get.

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    isamisam Posts: 40,924
    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Artist said:

    If the speaker was widely seen as neutral, it may not have been a bad idea for him to be the one to just hold fort whilst everyone else campaigns in an election. Installing Bercow however would just add to the perception of it being a remainer coup, which the Tories would jump all over. Opposition parties need to put this GNU idea to bed.

    While it might not be the most popular of ideas (for me, too), in what way would installing a new PM backed by a majority in Parliament be a ‘coup’ ?
    You don't understand Leaver logic

    1) Boris Johnson, elected as leader of Conservative Party by Conservative Party activists: entirely democratic Prime Minister, what is all the fuss.
    2) John Bercow, elected as PM by a majority of MPs: coup! Hang the traitor!

    To put it simply: when a Leaver does it, it's not treason. For example, if Jacob Rees-Mogg stands to make a personal profit of about £15M from Brexit by selling his fund management company then that is perfectly fine, and not even slightly a conflict of interest, oh dear me no.
    On the contrary, I've heard a great deal of foam flecked rhetoric about 'hedge fund managers' and wrecking Tories who stand to gain from Brexit, but next to nothing about those who would stand to gain (or lose) literal fortunes from the nexus of EU patronage and influence, from those who can see their dreams of comfortable sinecures disintegrating, and are therefore fighting like dogs to stay in.
    And yet are the most enthusiastic - the Lib Dems - overrepresented in such positions ?
    So they say

    https://unitynewsnetwork.co.uk/lib-dems-leader/
  • Options
    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,302

    A very important point to remember is that Jeremy Corbyn does not want a government of national unity designed to prevent No Deal Brexit, he wants a minority Labour government that will stop No Deal as part of its programme. That is a very different creature. It means a cabinet and government composed solely of Labour MPs and also characters like Seamas Milne and Andrew Murray - who have spent their entire adult lives championing causes and regimes that are hostile to the UK - working inside Downing Street. There is no way on God's earth that any of the Tory rebels or the ex-Labour MPs sitting as independents, in CUK or the LDs are going to vote for that. They woud genuinely take No Deal over putting the likes Milne and Murray anywhere near the levers of power.

    That is the calculation from Boris / Cummings.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991
    edited October 2019
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says she will likely stand down as an MSP in 2021 to take a charity or business role as well as focus more time on being a mother.

    However she does not rule out leading a future 'Better Together' campaign in any indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49952958

    Another massive loss to what used to be the Conservative Party.

    To an extent but as last week's Aberdeen council by election showed the Tory vote is still largely holding up despite Ruth's departure.

    It does increase the chances of the next non SNP and Unionist First Minister being a LD rather than a Tory though given the biggest gains in recent Scottish polls have been by the Scottish Liberal Democrats
    LOL, you are mental, you will not be living to see that unless independence comes.
    My long shot top is Swinson narrowly loses her Westminster seat to the SNP at the next election due to Tory tactical unwind over her anti Brexit stance, she then stands for Holyrood and becomes First Minister in 2021 instead after 14 years of SNP rule.

    Chuka then succeeds her as UK LD leader after winning his Cities of London and Westminster seat helped by Labour tactical voting and aims for PM in 2024
    Your Scottish wish is a million miles out, the Lib Dems could not run a bath and will never be in power in Scotland.
    I could see the LDs sweeping Edinburgh, Aberdeen, rural and suburban Scotland even if Glasgow and the central belt stays SNP
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    Donald Trump is living proof that you should never post on Twitter while pissed.

    For any given meaning of that word.
    True but Trump may be mad yet he is certainly not boring
    My grandmother's people are said to have a curse:

    May you live in interesting times.
    So it derives from your grandmother's people? As no actual Chinese source has ever been produced for it, mystery solved.....
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991
    edited October 2019
    Floater said:

    A very important point to remember is that Jeremy Corbyn does not want a government of national unity designed to prevent No Deal Brexit, he wants a minority Labour government that will stop No Deal as part of its programme. That is a very different creature. It means a cabinet and government composed solely of Labour MPs and also characters like Seamas Milne and Andrew Murray - who have spent their entire adult lives championing causes and regimes that are hostile to the UK - working inside Downing Street. There is no way on God's earth that any of the Tory rebels or the ex-Labour MPs sitting as independents, in CUK or the LDs are going to vote for that. They woud genuinely take No Deal over putting the likes Milne and Murray anywhere near the levers of power.

    I hope you are right Southam, I really do.

    If they get in, getting rid might not be so easy.
    In the unlikely event the LDs put Corbyn in the quickest way to get rid of him would be to vote Tory
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    A very important point to remember is that Jeremy Corbyn does not want a government of national unity designed to prevent No Deal Brexit, he wants a minority Labour government that will stop No Deal as part of its programme. That is a very different creature. It means a cabinet and government composed solely of Labour MPs and also characters like Seamas Milne and Andrew Murray - who have spent their entire adult lives championing causes and regimes that are hostile to the UK - working inside Downing Street. There is no way on God's earth that any of the Tory rebels or the ex-Labour MPs sitting as independents, in CUK or the LDs are going to vote for that. They woud genuinely take No Deal over putting the likes Milne and Murray anywhere near the levers of power.

    I think you over-estimate Milne, Murray and Corbyn in power. I actually think they would be pretty ineffective and that is before we take into account Civil Service 'drag' or Parliamentary opposition. The fact is even in a minority Labour Government they will find serious problems getting anything contentious through Parliament. I don't see the problem. They will be in office but not in power...
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,923
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says she will likely stand down as an MSP in 2021 to take a charity or business role as well as focus more time on being a mother.

    However she does not rule out leading a future 'Better Together' campaign in any indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49952958

    Another massive loss to what used to be the Conservative Party.

    To an extent but as last week's Aberdeen council by election showed the Tory vote is still largely holding up despite Ruth's departure.

    It does increase the chances of the next non SNP and Unionist First Minister being a LD rather than a Tory though given the biggest gains in recent Scottish polls have been by the Scottish Liberal Democrats
    LOL, you are mental, you will not be living to see that unless independence comes.
    My long shot top is Swinson narrowly loses her Westminster seat to the SNP at the next election due to Tory tactical unwind over her anti Brexit stance, she then stands for Holyrood and becomes First Minister in 2021 instead after 14 years of SNP rule.

    Chuka then succeeds her as UK LD leader after winning his Cities of London and Westminster seat helped by Labour tactical voting and aims for PM in 2024
    Your Scottish wish is a million miles out, the Lib Dems could not run a bath and will never be in power in Scotland.
    I could see the LDs sweeping Edinburgh, Aberdeen, rural and suburban Scotland even if Glasgow and the central belt stays SNP
    It is not going to happen , certainly not before independence, after that all bets will be off as we get some real Scottish opposition parties to challenge the SNP.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says she will likely stand down as an MSP in 2021 to take a charity or business role as well as focus more time on being a mother.

    However she does not rule out leading a future 'Better Together' campaign in any indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49952958

    Another massive loss to what used to be the Conservative Party.

    To an extent but as last week's Aberdeen council by election showed the Tory vote is still largely holding up despite Ruth's departure.

    It does increase the chances of the next non SNP and Unionist First Minister being a LD rather than a Tory though given the biggest gains in recent Scottish polls have been by the Scottish Liberal Democrats
    LOL, you are mental, you will not be living to see that unless independence comes.
    My long shot top is Swinson narrowly loses her Westminster seat to the SNP at the next election due to Tory tactical unwind over her anti Brexit stance, she then stands for Holyrood and becomes First Minister in 2021 instead after 14 years of SNP rule.

    Chuka then succeeds her as UK LD leader after winning his Cities of London and Westminster seat helped by Labour tactical voting and aims for PM in 2024
    Your Scottish wish is a million miles out, the Lib Dems could not run a bath and will never be in power in Scotland.
    I could see the LDs sweeping Edinburgh, Aberdeen, rural and suburban Scotland even if Glasgow and the central belt stays SNP
    It is not going to happen , certainly not before independence, after that all bets will be off as we get some real Scottish opposition parties to challenge the SNP.
    SUCH AS???
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    I'm not into football, but suspect promising to destroy the Premier League might not necessarily be to Corbyn's advantage.

    I think you are just making this up.
    Do you have a source ?
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    29% for BJ the incumbent is not good at all! :wink: More than two thirds of the population prefer someone else...
    More back Boris as PM than back Corbyn and Swinson combined
    Come on that is dire for Boris as a new PM. 70% of the population think someone else would be better at the job! BJ is a loser...
    The thing is that of course on one level you are right. Under any normal circumstances 29% at this point would indeed be dire. But these are not measures against some absolute standard, they are relative values against the other leaders. And on that score these are indeed good figures for Johnson. The other possible PMs all have truly dire scores and it seems at the moment that the only way anyone is going to be able to take advantage of Johnson's lack of popularity is if Labour dump Corbyn and get someone more electable.

  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2019
    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says she will likely stand down as an MSP in 2021 to take a charity or business role as well as focus more time on being a mother.

    However she does not rule out leading a future 'Better Together' campaign in any indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49952958

    I said as soon as she resigned as leader that she would have a nice holiday whilst taking the wages and then a nice cushy thinktank / public number with six figure salary. How very Tory.
    Would you rather she went into the private sector and the public wasn’t able to benefit from her experience?
    Her experience of coming 5th to 2nd in elections?
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says she will likely stand down as an MSP in 2021 to take a charity or business role as well as focus more time on being a mother.

    However she does not rule out leading a future 'Better Together' campaign in any indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49952958

    Another massive loss to what used to be the Conservative Party.

    To an extent but as last week's Aberdeen council by election showed the Tory vote is still largely holding up despite Ruth's departure.

    It does increase the chances of the next non SNP and Unionist First Minister being a LD rather than a Tory though given the biggest gains in recent Scottish polls have been by the Scottish Liberal Democrats
    LOL, you are mental, you will not be living to see that unless independence comes.
    My long shot top is Swinson narrowly loses her Westminster seat to the SNP at the next election due to Tory tactical unwind over her anti Brexit stance, she then stands for Holyrood and becomes First Minister in 2021 instead after 14 years of SNP rule.

    Chuka then succeeds her as UK LD leader after winning his Cities of London and Westminster seat helped by Labour tactical voting and aims for PM in 2024
    Your Scottish wish is a million miles out, the Lib Dems could not run a bath and will never be in power in Scotland.
    I could see the LDs sweeping Edinburgh, Aberdeen, rural and suburban Scotland even if Glasgow and the central belt stays SNP
    The central belt is suburban Scotland!
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    A very important point to remember is that Jeremy Corbyn does not want a government of national unity designed to prevent No Deal Brexit, he wants a minority Labour government that will stop No Deal as part of its programme. That is a very different creature. It means a cabinet and government composed solely of Labour MPs and also characters like Seamas Milne and Andrew Murray - who have spent their entire adult lives championing causes and regimes that are hostile to the UK - working inside Downing Street. There is no way on God's earth that any of the Tory rebels or the ex-Labour MPs sitting as independents, in CUK or the LDs are going to vote for that. They woud genuinely take No Deal over putting the likes Milne and Murray anywhere near the levers of power.

    I think you over-estimate Milne, Murray and Corbyn in power. I actually think they would be pretty ineffective and that is before we take into account Civil Service 'drag' or Parliamentary opposition. The fact is even in a minority Labour Government they will find serious problems getting anything contentious through Parliament. I don't see the problem. They will be in office but not in power...
    Yup, and if Jo Swinson thought about it, a minority Corbyn government, taking the blame for everything and credit for nothing, could be considerably to her advantage.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    Donald Trump is living proof that you should never post on Twitter while pissed.

    For any given meaning of that word.
    True but Trump may be mad yet he is certainly not boring
    Many people agree that he is not boring, that include people I have met that are US citizens who are registered Democrats. Even though I think he is a bad President and one that is not just bad for the US but the World. I would certainly say he is interesting. Though it is starting to get tedious when anything he disagrees with is "fake news".

    We live in an information age but the problem is the information has become politicised and corrupted. Maybe when they first started mass communication in modern newspapers, people thought the same a few hundred years ago?
    Yes. Every problem that people think is "new" is old. You can find plenty of articles from the 1960s 1970s decrying the lack of free speach on university campuses and the like.

    Even back in the day newspapers were blamed for the losy art of conversation. Etc.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. City, just referring to the chat on nationalising it.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited October 2019

    Mr. City, just referring to the chat on nationalising it.

    Which was bullshit Morris, even the poster said that.In a later post.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,415
    I think someone is doing Trump's Twitter. They're very him, but a bit too well written and coherent.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Who are Man United??
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. City, gosh. Something Corbyn doesn't want to nationalise.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    29% for BJ the incumbent is not good at all! :wink: More than two thirds of the population prefer someone else...
    More back Boris as PM than back Corbyn and Swinson combined
    Come on that is dire for Boris as a new PM. 70% of the population think someone else would be better at the job! BJ is a loser...
    The thing is that of course on one level you are right. Under any normal circumstances 29% at this point would indeed be dire. But these are not measures against some absolute standard, they are relative values against the other leaders. And on that score these are indeed good figures for Johnson. The other possible PMs all have truly dire scores and it seems at the moment that the only way anyone is going to be able to take advantage of Johnson's lack of popularity is if Labour dump Corbyn and get someone more electable.

    Indeed, very difficult to project 'new politics' around Brexit onto an old political system with established parties still in the ascendant. To some extent best PM ratings do not really show anything unsurprising but I cannot confidently predict how things will evolve. The thing about the Labour vote is for instance, it is usually reliable in turning out, no matter how bad the leader at anytime might be. 1983 and 2010 are two very useful reference points. In 2010 after the bigoted woman incident I suspect Brown plumbed the depths but still Labour got 29%! The period 2009 & 2010 were also the era of MPs expenses of course, which was said to be atypical of normal times due to hostility by the public.
  • Options

    NEW THREAD

  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    It seems an uncontroversial fact to me that if Boris loses a VoC he will remain PM until the general election, unless an alternative government wins a VoC within 14 days.

    I don't think there's any point trying to form an alternative government. Boris will have to ask for an A50 extension, either directly, or by means of a surrogate, and then we have the election.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says she will likely stand down as an MSP in 2021 to take a charity or business role as well as focus more time on being a mother.

    However she does not rule out leading a future 'Better Together' campaign in any indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49952958

    Another massive loss to what used to be the Conservative Party.

    To an extent but as last week's Aberdeen council by election showed the Tory vote is still largely holding up despite Ruth's departure.

    It does increase the chances of the next non SNP and Unionist First Minister being a LD rather than a Tory though given the biggest gains in recent Scottish polls have been by the Scottish Liberal Democrats
    LOL, you are mental, you will not be living to see that unless independence comes.
    My long shot top is Swinson narrowly loses her Westminster seat to the SNP at the next election due to Tory tactical unwind over her anti Brexit stance, she then stands for Holyrood and becomes First Minister in 2021 instead after 14 years of SNP rule.

    Chuka then succeeds her as UK LD leader after winning his Cities of London and Westminster seat helped by Labour tactical voting and aims for PM in 2024
    Your Scottish wish is a million miles out, the Lib Dems could not run a bath and will never be in power in Scotland.
    I could see the LDs sweeping Edinburgh, Aberdeen, rural and suburban Scotland even if Glasgow and the central belt stays SNP
    The central belt is suburban Scotland!
    Most of it is working class, ex industrial. Plenty of suburbs around Edinburgh and Aberdeen
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991
    edited October 2019
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says she will likely stand down as an MSP in 2021 to take a charity or business role as well as focus more time on being a mother.

    However she does not rule out leading a future 'Better Together' campaign in any indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49952958

    Another massive loss to what used to be the Conservative Party.

    To an extent but as last week's Aberdeen council by election showed the Tory vote is still largely holding up despite Ruth's departure.

    It does increase the chances of the next non SNP and Unionist First Minister being a LD rather than a Tory though given the biggest gains in recent Scottish polls have been by the Scottish Liberal Democrats
    LOL, you are mental, you will not be living to see that unless independence comes.
    My long shot top is Swinson narrowly loses her Westminster seat to the SNP at the next election due to Tory tactical unwind over her anti Brexit stance, she then stands for Holyrood and becomes First Minister in 2021 instead after 14 years of SNP rule.

    Chuka then succeeds her as UK LD leader after winning his Cities of London and Westminster seat helped by Labour tactical voting and aims for PM in 2024
    Your Scottish wish is a million miles out, the Lib Dems could not run a bath and will never be in power in Scotland.
    I could see the LDs sweeping Edinburgh, Aberdeen, rural and suburban Scotland even if Glasgow and the central belt stays SNP
    It is not going to happen , certainly not before independence, after that all bets will be off as we get some real Scottish opposition parties to challenge the SNP.
    Why not? Bar Glasgow and patches of the Central belt most of Scotland voted No to independence in 2014
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says she will likely stand down as an MSP in 2021 to take a charity or business role as well as focus more time on being a mother.

    However she does not rule out leading a future 'Better Together' campaign in any indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49952958

    Another massive loss to what used to be the Conservative Party.

    To an extent but as last week's Aberdeen council by election showed the Tory vote is still largely holding up despite Ruth's departure.

    It does increase the chances of the next non SNP and Unionist First Minister being a LD rather than a Tory though given the biggest gains in recent Scottish polls have been by the Scottish Liberal Democrats
    LOL, you are mental, you will not be living to see that unless independence comes.
    My long shot top is Swinson narrowly loses her Westminster seat to the SNP at the next election due to Tory tactical unwind over her anti Brexit stance, she then stands for Holyrood and becomes First Minister in 2021 instead after 14 years of SNP rule.

    Chuka then succeeds her as UK LD leader after winning his Cities of London and Westminster seat helped by Labour tactical voting and aims for PM in 2024
    Your Scottish wish is a million miles out, the Lib Dems could not run a bath and will never be in power in Scotland.
    They do run Bath.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    ydoethur said:

    Not that we can talk. Right now we have a choice between someone slightly weirder, creepier and more dishonest than Trump, or somebody who is considerably weirder, creepier and more dishonest than both of them.

    Trump is several drawers down from our two troubadours.

    They are flawed.

    He is - one can't say "more flawed" because this implies there is something good in there which the flaws are spoiling - what is the word for someone who does not have a single redeeming feature?
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    rpjs said:

    A very important point to remember is that Jeremy Corbyn does not want a government of national unity designed to prevent No Deal Brexit, he wants a minority Labour government that will stop No Deal as part of its programme. That is a very different creature. It means a cabinet and government composed solely of Labour MPs and also characters like Seamas Milne and Andrew Murray - who have spent their entire adult lives championing causes and regimes that are hostile to the UK - working inside Downing Street. There is no way on God's earth that any of the Tory rebels or the ex-Labour MPs sitting as independents, in CUK or the LDs are going to vote for that. They woud genuinely take No Deal over putting the likes Milne and Murray anywhere near the levers of power.

    I think you over-estimate Milne, Murray and Corbyn in power. I actually think they would be pretty ineffective and that is before we take into account Civil Service 'drag' or Parliamentary opposition. The fact is even in a minority Labour Government they will find serious problems getting anything contentious through Parliament. I don't see the problem. They will be in office but not in power...
    Yup, and if Jo Swinson thought about it, a minority Corbyn government, taking the blame for everything and credit for nothing, could be considerably to her advantage.
    Indeed, it could. The Tories after the first 1974 GE, abstained on the Labour Queens Speech IIRC. That did not taint the Tories in anyway for the second election, it just meant they were playing in the national interest rather than narrow party interest. LD could in a minority Labour Government have the best of both worlds by having helped discredit the Tories and oppose extreme Labour measures...
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,068
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says she will likely stand down as an MSP in 2021 to take a charity or business role as well as focus more time on being a mother.

    However she does not rule out leading a future 'Better Together' campaign in any indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49952958

    Another massive loss to what used to be the Conservative Party.

    To an extent but as last week's Aberdeen council by election showed the Tory vote is still largely holding up despite Ruth's departure.

    It does increase the chances of the next non SNP and Unionist First Minister being a LD rather than a Tory though given the biggest gains in recent Scottish polls have been by the Scottish Liberal Democrats
    LOL, you are mental, you will not be living to see that unless independence comes.
    My long shot top is Swinson narrowly loses her Westminster seat to the SNP at the next election due to Tory tactical unwind over her anti Brexit stance, she then stands for Holyrood and becomes First Minister in 2021 instead after 14 years of SNP rule.

    Chuka then succeeds her as UK LD leader after winning his Cities of London and Westminster seat helped by Labour tactical voting and aims for PM in 2024
    Your Scottish wish is a million miles out, the Lib Dems could not run a bath and will never be in power in Scotland.
    I could see the LDs sweeping Edinburgh, Aberdeen, rural and suburban Scotland even if Glasgow and the central belt stays SNP
    The central belt is suburban Scotland!
    Most of it is working class, ex industrial. Plenty of suburbs around Edinburgh and Aberdeen
    The central belt includes Edinburgh & environs.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,923

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says she will likely stand down as an MSP in 2021 to take a charity or business role as well as focus more time on being a mother.

    However she does not rule out leading a future 'Better Together' campaign in any indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49952958

    Another massive loss to what used to be the Conservative Party.

    To an extent but as last week's Aberdeen council by election showed the Tory vote is still largely holding up despite Ruth's departure.

    It does increase the chances of the next non SNP and Unionist First Minister being a LD rather than a Tory though given the biggest gains in recent Scottish polls have been by the Scottish Liberal Democrats
    LOL, you are mental, you will not be living to see that unless independence comes.
    My long shot top is Swinson narrowly loses her Westminster seat to the SNP at the next election due to Tory tactical unwind over her anti Brexit stance, she then stands for Holyrood and becomes First Minister in 2021 instead after 14 years of SNP rule.

    Chuka then succeeds her as UK LD leader after winning his Cities of London and Westminster seat helped by Labour tactical voting and aims for PM in 2024
    Your Scottish wish is a million miles out, the Lib Dems could not run a bath and will never be in power in Scotland.
    I could see the LDs sweeping Edinburgh, Aberdeen, rural and suburban Scotland even if Glasgow and the central belt stays SNP
    It is not going to happen , certainly not before independence, after that all bets will be off as we get some real Scottish opposition parties to challenge the SNP.
    SUCH AS???
    Well real Scottish parties unknown at this time as all the opposition are London sub regional sock puppets at present.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,923
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says she will likely stand down as an MSP in 2021 to take a charity or business role as well as focus more time on being a mother.

    However she does not rule out leading a future 'Better Together' campaign in any indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49952958

    Another massive loss to what used to be the Conservative Party.

    To an extent but as last week's Aberdeen council by election showed the Tory vote is still largely holding up despite Ruth's departure.

    It does increase the chances of the next non SNP and Unionist First Minister being a LD rather than a Tory though given the biggest gains in recent Scottish polls have been by the Scottish Liberal Democrats
    LOL, you are mental, you will not be living to see that unless independence comes.
    My long shot top is Swinson narrowly loses her Westminster seat to the SNP at the next election due to Tory tactical unwind over her anti Brexit stance, she then stands for Holyrood and becomes First Minister in 2021 instead after 14 years of SNP rule.

    Chuka then succeeds her as UK LD leader after winning his Cities of London and Westminster seat helped by Labour tactical voting and aims for PM in 2024
    Your Scottish wish is a million miles out, the Lib Dems could not run a bath and will never be in power in Scotland.
    I could see the LDs sweeping Edinburgh, Aberdeen, rural and suburban Scotland even if Glasgow and the central belt stays SNP
    It is not going to happen , certainly not before independence, after that all bets will be off as we get some real Scottish opposition parties to challenge the SNP.
    Why not? Bar Glasgow and patches of the Central belt most of Scotland voted No to independence in 2014
    Think you need to bone up on Scotland, get a map up on internet and have a look where people live.
  • Options
    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,302
    malcolmg said:

    SUCH AS???

    Well real Scottish parties unknown at this time as all the opposition are London sub regional sock puppets at present.
    Scottish Independence will properly break the main parties in Scotland. Scottish Labour would lose the funding from the big English unions and the Scottish Tories could end up back where they were prior to Cameron/Davidson.

    You'd probably see the emergence of new parties over the course of a decade or two to properly challenge the SNP. I'd expect a new centre right party to emerge which was not as toxic in Scotland as the Tories are/were/remain.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,923
    Alistair said:

    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says she will likely stand down as an MSP in 2021 to take a charity or business role as well as focus more time on being a mother.

    However she does not rule out leading a future 'Better Together' campaign in any indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49952958

    I said as soon as she resigned as leader that she would have a nice holiday whilst taking the wages and then a nice cushy thinktank / public number with six figure salary. How very Tory.
    Would you rather she went into the private sector and the public wasn’t able to benefit from her experience?
    Her experience of coming 5th to 2nd in elections?
    Exactly , she has ,milked enough from the public purse. She will only get a nothing job from her buddies, 6 figure salary and a nothing job, give her plenty time to laugh at the mugs she hoodwinked.
    I would not trust her to run a bath.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,923
    spudgfsh said:

    malcolmg said:

    SUCH AS???

    Well real Scottish parties unknown at this time as all the opposition are London sub regional sock puppets at present.
    Scottish Independence will properly break the main parties in Scotland. Scottish Labour would lose the funding from the big English unions and the Scottish Tories could end up back where they were prior to Cameron/Davidson.

    You'd probably see the emergence of new parties over the course of a decade or two to properly challenge the SNP. I'd expect a new centre right party to emerge which was not as toxic in Scotland as the Tories are/were/remain.
    For sure , SNP would splinter over short term if there were any decent alternatives.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says she will likely stand down as an MSP in 2021 to take a charity or business role as well as focus more time on being a mother.

    However she does not rule out leading a future 'Better Together' campaign in any indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49952958

    Another massive loss to what used to be the Conservative Party.

    To an extent but as last week's Aberdeen council by election showed the Tory vote is still largely holding up despite Ruth's departure.

    It does increase the chances of the next non SNP and Unionist First Minister being a LD rather than a Tory though given the biggest gains in recent Scottish polls have been by the Scottish Liberal Democrats
    LOL, you are mental, you will not be living to see that unless independence comes.
    My long shot top is Swinson narrowly loses her Westminster seat to the SNP at the next election due to Tory tactical unwind over her anti Brexit stance, she then stands for Holyrood and becomes First Minister in 2021 instead after 14 years of SNP rule.

    Chuka then succeeds her as UK LD leader after winning his Cities of London and Westminster seat helped by Labour tactical voting and aims for PM in 2024
    Your Scottish wish is a million miles out, the Lib Dems could not run a bath and will never be in power in Scotland.
    I could see the LDs sweeping Edinburgh, Aberdeen, rural and suburban Scotland even if Glasgow and the central belt stays SNP
    It is not going to happen , certainly not before independence, after that all bets will be off as we get some real Scottish opposition parties to challenge the SNP.
    Why not? Bar Glasgow and patches of the Central belt most of Scotland voted No to independence in 2014
    Think you need to bone up on Scotland, get a map up on internet and have a look where people live.
    Most people in Scotland do not live in Glasgow or Yes voting areas of the central belt
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says she will likely stand down as an MSP in 2021 to take a charity or business role as well as focus more time on being a mother.

    However she does not rule out leading a future 'Better Together' campaign in any indyref2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49952958

    Another massive loss to what used to be the Conservative Party.

    To an extent but as last week's Aberdeen council by election showed the Tory vote is still largely holding up despite Ruth's departure.

    It does increase the chances of the next non SNP and Unionist First Minister being a LD rather than a Tory though given the biggest gains in recent Scottish polls have been by the Scottish Liberal Democrats
    LOL, you are mental, you will not be living to see that unless independence comes.
    My long shot top is Swinson narrowly loses her Westminster seat to the SNP at the next election due to Tory tactical unwind over her anti Brexit stance, she then stands for Holyrood and becomes First Minister in 2021 instead after 14 years of SNP rule.

    Chuka then succeeds her as UK LD leader after winning his Cities of London and Westminster seat helped by Labour tactical voting and aims for PM in 2024
    Your Scottish wish is a million miles out, the Lib Dems could not run a bath and will never be in power in Scotland.
    I could see the LDs sweeping Edinburgh, Aberdeen, rural and suburban Scotland even if Glasgow and the central belt stays SNP
    The central belt is suburban Scotland!
    Most of it is working class, ex industrial. Plenty of suburbs around Edinburgh and Aberdeen
    The central belt includes Edinburgh & environs.
    Edinburgh and Lothian are not really central belt more at its outer edge, culturally Edinburgh has more in common with Aberdeen than the central belt as a whole
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    I think someone is doing Trump's Twitter. They're very him, but a bit too well written and coherent.

    I think someone is doing Trump's Twitter. They're very him, but a bit too well written and coherent.

    In which case they are smart enough to imitate his poor grammar and occasional spelling mistake. Can be done, but not easy.
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