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  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,908
    Morning all :)

    We are now seeing the line of the Government becoming clearer - there will be No Deal and the anti-EU and indeed anti-European vitriol is going to be significantly increased in the coming days.

    Boris will I think go to the EU Summit and flounce for maximum propaganda impact before wrapping himself in the Union Jack and going all Churchillian. Pathetic but that's the bread and circus of 21st century populist politics. Shout a lot and hope people don't think too much about the message.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    kinabalu said:

    EU about to learn, again, that it is a really stupid idea to tell the British people what they arent allowed to do

    The topic was whether NI leaves the SM/CU. The people of NI do not want to leave the SM/CU.

    Perhaps the British government are about to learn - again - that they ought not be telling the people of NI what they can and can't do?
    The people of NI are part of the UK unless and until they vote to change that status. They are bound by the decision of the UK. Norwich voted remain but it will leave. NI is no different. They are citizens of our nation, not colonials, and take part in collective decision making.
    But close to half of the people of NI don’t want to be part of the UK.

    Brexit has tragically destroyed the beautiful and delicate ambiguity of the existing settlement, and for so little gain. Sad.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Merkel is going to have bigger fish to fry when Turkey invades Syria.

    Refugee Crisis Mk 2.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,383

    Things aren't looking too good for all those amicable 'mini-deals' we were promised, are they?

    Boris is still determinedly offering places in the queue...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,953
    I think Merkel's greatest sin here.... is her honesty ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,564
    Saffers have three tries within 10 minutes.....
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Fenster said:

    Merkel is going to have bigger fish to fry when Turkey invades Syria.

    Refugee Crisis Mk 2.

    It's not a crisis for her, she will happily open the borders and expect the EU to tag along
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,851
    Good cop - bad cop Merkel and Macron not playing out as expected.
    Perhaps Varadkar was on the phone before she spoke with the pm.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,772
    kinabalu said:

    Noo said:

    I was initially surprised, but the grinding inequality of the USA is bound to drive people into the arms of socialists. This is a wake-up call for those on the neoliberal wing of capitalism. Time to rein it in and go in for a more solid and sustainable form of capitalism before the voters tip the whole table over.

    And by the same token a true believer in the replacement of capitalism by something else ought to be rooting against such reforms.

    What stops me being more Left than I am is my strong hunch that the private profit motive is indispensable to reconciling strong economic growth with individual liberty.

    However, climate change, high tech, AI, the rise of the East, globalized business models and tax 'planning', exploitation of the poor and of weak and underdeveloped regions, if these sorts of challenges are left primarily to the 'market' this, for me, is tantamount to not facing them at all.
    I agree with much of that. I would also say that the massive state intervention back in 2008/2009 to save the financial system has severely undermined the previous belief in light touch regulation and free markets. We have not yet fully come to terms with that IMO.
  • Macron having said this would more likely to pass the sniff test.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Amazing that an ardent Remainer journalist doesn't like this, and therefore doesn't trust it.

    We will know in about thirty minutes. If Berlin doesn't very briskly disavow this "spin", and put Merkel's "real position", then we can safely assume this gossip is close to the truth.

    They've got until noon, I reckon. The £ is already dropping fast.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,035
    Fenster said:

    I think Boris is lining up to resign the government on 19th October.

    Resignation on Friday 18th I think when EU have formally rejected his deal and before he is legally obliged to write the letter.

    LOTO becomes PM but loses VONC on Monday 21st October. He remains as PM.
    Corbyn writes extension letter which EU accepts.
    Election called 14 days later on Monday 4th November for Thursday 12th December with Corbyn as PM.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,955
    edited October 2019
    Byronic said:

    Amazing that an ardent Remainer journalist doesn't like this, and therefore doesn't trust it.

    We will know in about thirty minutes. If Berlin doesn't very briskly disavow this "spin", and put Merkel's "real position", then we can safely assume this gossip is close to the truth.

    They've got until noon, I reckon. The £ is already dropping fast.
    I presume all these calls are recorded.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,383
    >
    Byronic said:

    I can't work out the meaning of Merkel's phone call.

    Either the German want No Deal, or they want an actual war. It is one or the other.

    Perhaps we should wait until it's confirmed what she actually said ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49970267
    The BBC's Brussels correspondent, Adam Fleming, said the German chancellery had not released their interpretation of the call, and it would be important to "compare and contrast".
    But he said an EU official close to the negotiations in Brussels had told him Mrs Merkel's reported comments did not reflect the EU's agreed position, adding: "This is not our language."....

  • Charles said:

    PB Tories: respect the sovereignty of the Northern Irish people!
    Also PB Tories: ignore the fact that the Northern Irish people voted to stay in the EU!

    Leaving the EU is a question for the UK electorate

    Reunification with the RoI is a question for the NI electorate

    It’s really not that difficult a concept to grasp
    The first point is simply your assertion. Both Scotland and N Ireland voted to stay in the EU, and taking them out of the EU against their will threatens their continued participation in the UK union. Ignoring the express will of the people of this country and province will have important political effects that Tories just seem to be ignoring. At the very least, given that Northern Irish voters have expressed a desire to stay in the EU, and the EU has offered a special status that maintains many of the benefits of EU membership, it seems odd to reject that, especially in the name of the sovereignty of the same people you are ignoring. If only a similar deal were available for Scotland.
    The second point is correct, but the NI electorate have never actually expressed a view. Hopefully a referendum will be organised as soon as no deal occurs.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Fenster said:

    Merkel is going to have bigger fish to fry when Turkey invades Syria.

    Refugee Crisis Mk 2.

    It's not a crisis for her, she will happily open the borders and expect the EU to tag along
    The terrorist in Limburg is reportedly a Syrian. What are the chances he came in under Merkel's "Wilkommen to Terrorists Kultur"?

    History may not be kind to her, even as she remains rather popular, despite her errors.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 5,589

    Charles said:

    PB Tories: respect the sovereignty of the Northern Irish people!
    Also PB Tories: ignore the fact that the Northern Irish people voted to stay in the EU!

    Leaving the EU is a question for the UK electorate

    Reunification with the RoI is a question for the NI electorate

    It’s really not that difficult a concept to grasp
    The first point is simply your assertion. Both Scotland and N Ireland voted to stay in the EU, and taking them out of the EU against their will threatens their continued participation in the UK union. Ignoring the express will of the people of this country and province will have important political effects that Tories just seem to be ignoring. At the very least, given that Northern Irish voters have expressed a desire to stay in the EU, and the EU has offered a special status that maintains many of the benefits of EU membership, it seems odd to reject that, especially in the name of the sovereignty of the same people you are ignoring. If only a similar deal were available for Scotland.
    The second point is correct, but the NI electorate have never actually expressed a view. Hopefully a referendum will be organised as soon as no deal occurs.
    Isi t not the duty of the Secretary of State for NI, or the current incarnation thereof, to call such a referendum when there appearts to be a majoroty in favour of reunion?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Barnesian said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Boris is lining up to resign the government on 19th October.

    Resignation on Friday 18th I think when EU have formally rejected his deal and before he is legally obliged to write the letter.

    LOTO becomes PM but loses VONC on Monday 21st October. He remains as PM.
    Corbyn writes extension letter which EU accepts.
    Election called 14 days later on Monday 4th November for Thursday 12th December with Corbyn as PM.
    Sounds good to me!

    Doubt it will happen though - Johnson loves being PM too much, and also has atleast the shred of intelligence to compare his approval ratings just before he became PM (which were Corbyn levels of terrible) to his approval ratings now (much improved, albeit still mediocre).
  • Byronic said:

    Fenster said:

    Merkel is going to have bigger fish to fry when Turkey invades Syria.

    Refugee Crisis Mk 2.

    It's not a crisis for her, she will happily open the borders and expect the EU to tag along
    The terrorist in Limburg is reportedly a Syrian. What are the chances he came in under Merkel's "Wilkommen to Terrorists Kultur"?

    History may not be kind to her, even as she remains rather popular, despite her errors.
    He did, and has since racked up a long list of criminal offences.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,069
    Byronic said:

    I can't work out the meaning of Merkel's phone call.

    Either the German want No Deal, or they want an actual war. It is one or the other.

    Or they think that parliament will revoke
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Christ. So the Germans want war, rather than just dystopian no deal?

    Spam fritters it is. Stock up now.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,249
    edited October 2019
    Barnesian said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Boris is lining up to resign the government on 19th October.

    Resignation on Friday 18th I think when EU have formally rejected his deal and before he is legally obliged to write the letter.

    LOTO becomes PM but loses VONC on Monday 21st October. He remains as PM.
    Corbyn writes extension letter which EU accepts.
    Election called 14 days later on Monday 4th November for Thursday 12th December with Corbyn as PM.
    Is it right that Corbyn automatically becomes PM? Isn't the gig offered to someone who it is believed has the confidence of the house?
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    Byronic said:

    Amazing that an ardent Remainer journalist doesn't like this, and therefore doesn't trust it.

    We will know in about thirty minutes. If Berlin doesn't very briskly disavow this "spin", and put Merkel's "real position", then we can safely assume this gossip is close to the truth.

    They've got until noon, I reckon. The £ is already dropping fast.
    Looks like you’re getting the diamond hard Brexit you wanted. Happy?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,703

    Jezziah seemed confused as to which hoops I envisaged him having to jump through. My point was that as a Corbyn cultist his hoop will be trying to justify why having won just 262 seats and shed many of those since that Corbyn failing to win the confidence of the Commons was the fault of other parties and not the failing of Corbyn to win and retain enough seats to even have half a chance of power.

    ...you nutter.
    = lost argument.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited October 2019
    There you go. As I said, downthread. if the Germans don't deny it, then it obviously happened. It is that bad.

    Makes all the Remainer low-watts on here - hello Nabavi and rottenborough! - look a bit foolish.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    I doubt a Belgian used the phrase “collapsing the scrum”...

    For EU see Ireland..


  • kamski said:

    kamski said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/08/brexit-irish-border-technology

    This piece makes a number of good points. Most salient for me was pointing out the hypocrisy of Brexiteers prioritising questions of English identity and nationhood over economics or technocratic ease, but expecting the Irish to be amenable to a technocratic solution to the border question and simply accept the re-eraction of borders across their country.

    When did Nothern Ireland get annexed in to their country? I thought it was a part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
    I think you have just illustrated the point that the article makes. If you can't see that there are millions of Irish people (living on both sides of the border) for whom a united Ireland, achieved peacefully and with consent, is a completely legitimate aspiration, then you can't expect anyone to respect and privilege your English nationalist aspirations either.
    Its an aspiration not a fact.

    The voters of the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU, that is a fact.
    The voters of Northern Ireland have not voted for a United Ireland.

    So the latter is subservient to the former. Brexit is more important than aspirations for a united Ireland.
    But the Good Friday Agreement predates the Brexit referendum, so the UK should leave in a way that respects it. The simplest way to do this is for the UK to leave the EU while remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market. It's stupid to be considering any other way of leaving the EU.
    Ireland leaving the customs union doesn't violate the GFA though. Show me a single passage of the GFA or court case that says it does.

    Hence all this bullshit about "the spirit of the GFA". I'm quite content to respect the GFA to the absolute letter of the law.
    Is there a problem with the UK staying in the Customs Union and Single Market?
    Yes its completely illogical, there is a reason not one other country is in both but not the EU, we may as well stay in the EU if we were to do that, we voted to leave.

    Give me one good reason to leave the EU but stay in the customs union and single market please.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Byronic said:

    There you go. As I said, downthread. if the Germans don't deny it, then it obviously happened. It is that bad.

    Makes all the Remainer low-watts on here - hello Nabavi and rottenborough! - look a bit foolish.
    The EU mask is slipping
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,475
    Leavers are such snowflakes .

    Happy to support the disgraceful briefing from no 10 yesterday but now implode when Merkel states the obvious .

    Brexit and NI are incompatible . Most voters couldn’t care less if NI stays in the CU anyway .

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,564
    Nigelb said:

    >

    Byronic said:

    I can't work out the meaning of Merkel's phone call.

    Either the German want No Deal, or they want an actual war. It is one or the other.

    Perhaps we should wait until it's confirmed what she actually said ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49970267
    The BBC's Brussels correspondent, Adam Fleming, said the German chancellery had not released their interpretation of the call, and it would be important to "compare and contrast".
    But he said an EU official close to the negotiations in Brussels had told him Mrs Merkel's reported comments did not reflect the EU's agreed position, adding: "This is not our language."....

    Fight! fight! Fight!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Canada getting the Labour in the NE at the next GE treatment
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    philiph said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Boris is lining up to resign the government on 19th October.

    Resignation on Friday 18th I think when EU have formally rejected his deal and before he is legally obliged to write the letter.

    LOTO becomes PM but loses VONC on Monday 21st October. He remains as PM.
    Corbyn writes extension letter which EU accepts.
    Election called 14 days later on Monday 4th November for Thursday 12th December with Corbyn as PM.
    Is it right that Corbyn automatically becomes PM? Isn't the gig offered to someone who it is believed has the confidence of the house?
    I think it depends on how exactly Johnson left office.

    If it was a VONC, then I doubt Corbyn would automatically get a go as PM, unless he won a confidence vote. Johnson would probably remain as PM if no alternative PM could be found, with an election triggered after 14 days.

    If Johnson voluntarily resigned, then there'd have to be SOMEONE as PM. It would be uncharted waters, but I guess it could be Corbyn for lack of anyone else, especially since (presumably) no-one else from the Cabinet would volunteer to be PM in that scenario.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,564
    Saffers 5 tries in first 20 minutes.

    Hmmm.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,383
    "adrift without any effective fiscal anchor..."
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49961301

    And that's before whatever happens next.

    The wealthy might be able to afford Brexit; the rest of us can't.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,069
    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    PB Tories: respect the sovereignty of the Northern Irish people!
    Also PB Tories: ignore the fact that the Northern Irish people voted to stay in the EU!

    Leaving the EU is a question for the UK electorate

    Reunification with the RoI is a question for the NI electorate

    It’s really not that difficult a concept to grasp
    The first point is simply your assertion. Both Scotland and N Ireland voted to stay in the EU, and taking them out of the EU against their will threatens their continued participation in the UK union. Ignoring the express will of the people of this country and province will have important political effects that Tories just seem to be ignoring. At the very least, given that Northern Irish voters have expressed a desire to stay in the EU, and the EU has offered a special status that maintains many of the benefits of EU membership, it seems odd to reject that, especially in the name of the sovereignty of the same people you are ignoring. If only a similar deal were available for Scotland.
    The second point is correct, but the NI electorate have never actually expressed a view. Hopefully a referendum will be organised as soon as no deal occurs.
    Isi t not the duty of the Secretary of State for NI, or the current incarnation thereof, to call such a referendum when there appearts to be a majoroty in favour of reunion?
    I believe it’s when he “judges” it to be likely but not sure if the criteria is set. Although if I remember the wording correctly that implies a quasi-judicial role
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 124
    edited October 2019
    Come 1st November, the Liberal Democrats will be on 1̶9̶ 400 seats and reign for ̶b̶u̶g̶g̶e̶r̶ ̶a̶l̶l̶ 1000 years!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,622
    Is Germany not denying what was said more or less the same as the blonde lady whose name escapes me not denying having an affair with the then mayor?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    nico67 said:

    Leavers are such snowflakes .

    Happy to support the disgraceful briefing from no 10 yesterday but now implode when Merkel states the obvious .

    Brexit and NI are incompatible . Most voters couldn’t care less if NI stays in the CU anyway .

    So this has gone from being an outrageous piece of Leaver spin, to... "Merkel stating the obvious", in about 5 minutes? Impressive.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,772
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Noo said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/08/brexit-irish-border-technology

    This piece makes a number of good points. Most salient for me was pointing out the hypocrisy of Brexiteers prioritising questions of English identity and nationhood over economics or technocratic ease, but expecting the Irish to be amenable to a technocratic solution to the border question and simply accept the re-eraction of borders across their country.

    Yes, that contradiction had passed me by. Fintan O'Toole really is one of the better writers around.
    The contempt for Ireland and Irish concerns is one of the most striking and depressing characteristics of many Brexiteers.
    Irish concerns are not equal to Uk concerns - if you are the Uk government - quite rightly.
    They most certainly are if you are genuinely seeking to reach an agreement with them.
    Disagree

    They are important and valid, but an accommodation requires movement on both sides.

    I have my doubts about this reported “readout” from the Merkel call this morning, but if true then no deal is possible so leaving without a deal is all that is left
    Leaving with the WA is perfectly possible.

    It has been made impossible because so many MPs have decided, for a variety of reasons that they don't want a deal with the EU.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,249
    TGOHF2 said:

    I doubt a Belgian used the phrase “collapsing the scrum”...

    For EU see Ireland..


    Not German either.

    France, Ireland, Italy, UK would be the most obvious sources.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,383
    Byronic said:

    Christ. So the Germans want war, rather than just dystopian no deal?

    Spam fritters it is. Stock up now.
    This from your Mediterranean beach ? :smile:
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,249

    Is Germany not denying what was said more or less the same as the blonde lady whose name escapes me not denying having an affair with the then mayor?

    Merkel??
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    This is rubbish. 1. The Germans have not denied it - amazingly 2, the EU is trying to distance themselves from what she said, 3, you don't have to overspin this phone call, even if just 20% of it is true it is beyond explosive

    It essentially gives the lie to the position that the UK was "always sovereign within the EU", Because Merkel is saying, perhaps correctly, that the price of leaving HAS to be ceding control of one of the UK's constituent nations, and letting the EU govern NI as a trading colony (without the NI locals having a vote)

    It is economic annexation, without representation.

    It may be a cold statement of the facts, but it is fucking ridiculously provocative. Stupid woman. What is her game?!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,842
    Looks like we heading to complete disaster unless non-Tory MPs get a bloody grip.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,611
    edited October 2019
    TOPPING said:

    Jezziah seemed confused as to which hoops I envisaged him having to jump through. My point was that as a Corbyn cultist his hoop will be trying to justify why having won just 262 seats and shed many of those since that Corbyn failing to win the confidence of the Commons was the fault of other parties and not the failing of Corbyn to win and retain enough seats to even have half a chance of power.

    ...you nutter.
    = lost argument.
    In that case I have won almost every argument I have ever had with Rochdale, even the ones where he mentioned me and I never bothered participating. The majority of his posts where he starts an argument with me (generally out of the blue without me talking to him) are generally filled with insults, which is were our arguments start. Even in this one you quoted which is a continuation rather than the start of an argument from his previous posts contains cultist, only once though, probably one of the mildest post he has directed at me.

    Although all that said, even if he didn't continually insult me the man is a nutter, he continually accuses me of things I have never actually said, he is either mildly delusional or just so angry he needs to make up stuff to have a go. Quite frankly that does make him a nutter, I didn't say he smelled bad or was ugly or something else I couldn't possibly know.

    Edit: My guessing is though that this lost argument thing only magically applies when you think it works in your favour.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,035
    philiph said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Boris is lining up to resign the government on 19th October.

    Resignation on Friday 18th I think when EU have formally rejected his deal and before he is legally obliged to write the letter.

    LOTO becomes PM but loses VONC on Monday 21st October. He remains as PM.
    Corbyn writes extension letter which EU accepts.
    Election called 14 days later on Monday 4th November for Thursday 12th December with Corbyn as PM.
    Is it right that Corbyn automatically becomes PM? Isn't the gig offered to someone who it is believed has the confidence of the house?
    If Johnson resigns and doesn't want to be the PM who writes the extension letter, then he has to engineer Corbyn into that role. As LOTO Corbyn is the least controversial choice. Who knows whether he has the confidence of the house until it is tested the following Monday?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,475
    Byronic said:

    This is rubbish. 1. The Germans have not denied it - amazingly 2, the EU is trying to distance themselves from what she said, 3, you don't have to overspin this phone call, even if just 20% of it is true it is beyond explosive

    It essentially gives the lie to the position that the UK was "always sovereign within the EU", Because Merkel is saying, perhaps correctly, that the price of leaving HAS to be ceding control of one of the UK's constituent nations, and letting the EU govern NI as a trading colony (without the NI locals having a vote)

    It is economic annexation, without representation.

    It may be a cold statement of the facts, but it is fucking ridiculously provocative. Stupid woman. What is her game?!
    No more stupid than the ridiculous briefings coming out of no 10.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,564
    Saffers to get a three figure score?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,069
    nico67 said:

    Leavers are such snowflakes .

    Happy to support the disgraceful briefing from no 10 yesterday but now implode when Merkel states the obvious .

    Brexit and NI are incompatible . Most voters couldn’t care less if NI stays in the CU anyway .

    Only if Ireland is in the EU

    An alternative solution would be Ireland leaves the EU and returns to unaligned status (with special arrangements for NI)

    There are three end states (in the absence of the EU being willing to develop a fudge)

    1. The UK’s sovereignty is compromised as it cannot leave the CU/SM in toto
    2. RoI’s sovereignty is compromised as it cannot be part of the EU and have a special relationship with NI
    3. There is a hard border
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,842
    TGOHF2 said:
    Yep. Looks really bleak this morning.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    If Boris crashes us out, travellers from the UK to the EU will need to:

    • Visit GOV.UK for information regarding immigration requirements of the country they
    are travelling to if the reason for their visit is work or study, or if they intend to remain
    for longer than 90 in any 180-day period.
    • Check that their passport complies with the Schengen entry requirements using the
    online tool. Priority services are available for more urgent travel, at an additional
    fee.
    • Ensure that they have documentation required by immigration authorities, such as
    proof of sufficient funds for the duration of their stay or a return ticket.
    • Continue to buy comprehensive travel insurance, as UK-issued EHICs may no longer
    be valid depending on the country they are visiting. People with pre-existing medical
    conditions, which would have been covered by the EHIC, should discuss how this
    would affect travel plans and insurance cover with their GP and insurer.
    • Contact the relevant EU country’s authority to see if they need to start paying any
    social security contributions in that country.
    • If intending to drive in the EU, familiarise themselves with the information in the
    transport section of this chapter which details the documents that may be required.
    • Check the roaming policy of their mobile operator before travelling to the EU and
    EEA countries.

    What a pain in the arse
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,564
    Barnesian said:

    philiph said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Boris is lining up to resign the government on 19th October.

    Resignation on Friday 18th I think when EU have formally rejected his deal and before he is legally obliged to write the letter.

    LOTO becomes PM but loses VONC on Monday 21st October. He remains as PM.
    Corbyn writes extension letter which EU accepts.
    Election called 14 days later on Monday 4th November for Thursday 12th December with Corbyn as PM.
    Is it right that Corbyn automatically becomes PM? Isn't the gig offered to someone who it is believed has the confidence of the house?
    If Johnson resigns and doesn't want to be the PM who writes the extension letter, then he has to engineer Corbyn into that role. As LOTO Corbyn is the least controversial choice. Who knows whether he has the confidence of the house until it is tested the following Monday?
    What are our MPs going to do with an extension?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Great, but realistically she's going to need to have the balls to remove Johnson from office for that to happen.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,138
    Byronic said:

    This is rubbish. 1. The Germans have not denied it - amazingly 2, the EU is trying to distance themselves from what she said, 3, you don't have to overspin this phone call, even if just 20% of it is true it is beyond explosive

    It essentially gives the lie to the position that the UK was "always sovereign within the EU", Because Merkel is saying, perhaps correctly, that the price of leaving HAS to be ceding control of one of the UK's constituent nations, and letting the EU govern NI as a trading colony (without the NI locals having a vote)

    It is economic annexation, without representation.

    It may be a cold statement of the facts, but it is fucking ridiculously provocative. Stupid woman. What is her game?!
    .
    Bollocks. Northern Ireland should never have been allowed to be separated from the rest of Ireland as was laid down in the 1912 act. It was only the UK government giving in to the Curragh mutineers that led to the current set up
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,069
    He wants a deal but not the deal the EU wants
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    TGOHF2 said:
    A tragic series of terrible errors, by all sides. Yes, the similarity is painful.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Noo said:

    If Boris crashes us out, travellers from the UK to the EU will need to:

    • Visit GOV.UK for information regarding immigration requirements of the country they
    are travelling to if the reason for their visit is work or study, or if they intend to remain
    for longer than 90 in any 180-day period.
    • Check that their passport complies with the Schengen entry requirements using the
    online tool. Priority services are available for more urgent travel, at an additional
    fee.
    • Ensure that they have documentation required by immigration authorities, such as
    proof of sufficient funds for the duration of their stay or a return ticket.
    • Continue to buy comprehensive travel insurance, as UK-issued EHICs may no longer
    be valid depending on the country they are visiting. People with pre-existing medical
    conditions, which would have been covered by the EHIC, should discuss how this
    would affect travel plans and insurance cover with their GP and insurer.
    • Contact the relevant EU country’s authority to see if they need to start paying any
    social security contributions in that country.
    • If intending to drive in the EU, familiarise themselves with the information in the
    transport section of this chapter which details the documents that may be required.
    • Check the roaming policy of their mobile operator before travelling to the EU and
    EEA countries.

    What a pain in the arse

    "There may be new document requirements for drivers (both commercial and private),
    who plan on driving to, from or within the EU, to comply with. "

    I mean, what the fuck does that mean? "May be"? Will there, yes or no? And if so, what? How to I apply? How long in advance? What happens if I don't? Christ, what a clusterfuck.
  • PB Tories: respect the sovereignty of the Northern Irish people!
    Also PB Tories: ignore the fact that the Northern Irish people voted to stay in the EU!

    It's the difference between the Northern Irish people and the Northern Irish The People; the needs of the (minority) latter outweigh the needs of the (majority) former for the Ultras.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,040
    Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    Leavers are such snowflakes .

    Happy to support the disgraceful briefing from no 10 yesterday but now implode when Merkel states the obvious .

    Brexit and NI are incompatible . Most voters couldn’t care less if NI stays in the CU anyway .

    Only if Ireland is in the EU

    An alternative solution would be Ireland leaves the EU and returns to unaligned status (with special arrangements for NI)

    There are three end states (in the absence of the EU being willing to develop a fudge)

    1. The UK’s sovereignty is compromised as it cannot leave the CU/SM in toto
    2. RoI’s sovereignty is compromised as it cannot be part of the EU and have a special relationship with NI
    3. There is a hard border
    If Ireland left the EU it wouldn't solve the border problem unless Ireland also aligned its regulations and trade policy with the UK. You are falsely drawing an equivalence between London and Brussels.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Time for a GE - until there is we are going round in circles.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,611

    Barnesian said:

    philiph said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Boris is lining up to resign the government on 19th October.

    Resignation on Friday 18th I think when EU have formally rejected his deal and before he is legally obliged to write the letter.

    LOTO becomes PM but loses VONC on Monday 21st October. He remains as PM.
    Corbyn writes extension letter which EU accepts.
    Election called 14 days later on Monday 4th November for Thursday 12th December with Corbyn as PM.
    Is it right that Corbyn automatically becomes PM? Isn't the gig offered to someone who it is believed has the confidence of the house?
    If Johnson resigns and doesn't want to be the PM who writes the extension letter, then he has to engineer Corbyn into that role. As LOTO Corbyn is the least controversial choice. Who knows whether he has the confidence of the house until it is tested the following Monday?
    What are our MPs going to do with an extension?
    An election, I don't see that parliament would support Corbyn staying in the role. The Tories want an election, at that point Labour and the SNP will want an election. Numbers aren't there to stop it.
  • If Number 10 have overspun it then it should be very easy to clear up.

    Merkel could very easily come out and say "of course Northern Ireland can leave the customs union, it is afterall a part of the United Kingdom and we respect that, we believe we can get a deal respecting that". Go on then!
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    If Boris crashes us out, travellers from the UK to the EU will need to:

    • Visit GOV.UK for information regarding immigration requirements of the country they
    are travelling to if the reason for their visit is work or study, or if they intend to remain
    for longer than 90 in any 180-day period.
    • Check that their passport complies with the Schengen entry requirements using the
    online tool. Priority services are available for more urgent travel, at an additional
    fee.
    • Ensure that they have documentation required by immigration authorities, such as
    proof of sufficient funds for the duration of their stay or a return ticket.
    • Continue to buy comprehensive travel insurance, as UK-issued EHICs may no longer
    be valid depending on the country they are visiting. People with pre-existing medical
    conditions, which would have been covered by the EHIC, should discuss how this
    would affect travel plans and insurance cover with their GP and insurer.
    • Contact the relevant EU country’s authority to see if they need to start paying any
    social security contributions in that country.
    • If intending to drive in the EU, familiarise themselves with the information in the
    transport section of this chapter which details the documents that may be required.
    • Check the roaming policy of their mobile operator before travelling to the EU and
    EEA countries.

    What a pain in the arse

    "There may be new document requirements for drivers (both commercial and private),
    who plan on driving to, from or within the EU, to comply with. "

    I mean, what the fuck does that mean? "May be"? Will there, yes or no? And if so, what? How to I apply? How long in advance? What happens if I don't? Christ, what a clusterfuck.
    "UK driving licence holders who live in the EU, EEA or Switzerland should exchange
    their UK driving licence for a licence in the country where they live before 31 October
    2019. Licence exchange arrangements may stop in some EU and EEA countries, if
    we leave without a deal, and UK licence holders may then have to retake their driving
    test in the EU or EEA country where they live."

    :cold_sweat:
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    This is rubbish. 1. The Germans have not denied it - amazingly 2, the EU is trying to distance themselves from what she said, 3, you don't have to overspin this phone call, even if just 20% of it is true it is beyond explosive

    It essentially gives the lie to the position that the UK was "always sovereign within the EU", Because Merkel is saying, perhaps correctly, that the price of leaving HAS to be ceding control of one of the UK's constituent nations, and letting the EU govern NI as a trading colony (without the NI locals having a vote)

    It is economic annexation, without representation.

    It may be a cold statement of the facts, but it is fucking ridiculously provocative. Stupid woman. What is her game?!
    .
    Bollocks. Northern Ireland should never have been allowed to be separated from the rest of Ireland as was laid down in the 1912 act. It was only the UK government giving in to the Curragh mutineers that led to the current set up
    And you accuse Leavers of living in the past. FFS.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,393

    Barnesian said:

    philiph said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Boris is lining up to resign the government on 19th October.

    Resignation on Friday 18th I think when EU have formally rejected his deal and before he is legally obliged to write the letter.

    LOTO becomes PM but loses VONC on Monday 21st October. He remains as PM.
    Corbyn writes extension letter which EU accepts.
    Election called 14 days later on Monday 4th November for Thursday 12th December with Corbyn as PM.
    Is it right that Corbyn automatically becomes PM? Isn't the gig offered to someone who it is believed has the confidence of the house?
    If Johnson resigns and doesn't want to be the PM who writes the extension letter, then he has to engineer Corbyn into that role. As LOTO Corbyn is the least controversial choice. Who knows whether he has the confidence of the house until it is tested the following Monday?
    What are our MPs going to do with an extension?
    Organise a 2nd referendum and a GE.
  • TGOHF2 said:
    Hopefully less dying in a ditch this time around.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Barnesian said:

    philiph said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Boris is lining up to resign the government on 19th October.

    Resignation on Friday 18th I think when EU have formally rejected his deal and before he is legally obliged to write the letter.

    LOTO becomes PM but loses VONC on Monday 21st October. He remains as PM.
    Corbyn writes extension letter which EU accepts.
    Election called 14 days later on Monday 4th November for Thursday 12th December with Corbyn as PM.
    Is it right that Corbyn automatically becomes PM? Isn't the gig offered to someone who it is believed has the confidence of the house?
    If Johnson resigns and doesn't want to be the PM who writes the extension letter, then he has to engineer Corbyn into that role. As LOTO Corbyn is the least controversial choice. Who knows whether he has the confidence of the house until it is tested the following Monday?
    What are our MPs going to do with an extension?
    Organise a 2nd referendum and a GE.
    2nd ref will be cancelled when leave win the GE
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    If Number 10 have overspun it then it should be very easy to clear up.

    Merkel could very easily come out and say "of course Northern Ireland can leave the customs union, it is afterall a part of the United Kingdom and we respect that, we believe we can get a deal respecting that". Go on then!
    Quite. Merkel hasn't denied it, and she won't, because, basically, she said it.

    Remainers here need to get a grip and see the EU for what it is. A racket.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,475
    If a majority in the UK is enough to Leave the EU why isn’t a majority in NI who support a backstop enough to support that .

    I thought Leavers loved the will of the people .
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    If Boris crashes us out, travellers from the UK to the EU will need to:

    • Visit GOV.UK for information regarding immigration requirements of the country they
    are travelling to if the reason for their visit is work or study, or if they intend to remain
    for longer than 90 in any 180-day period.
    • Check that their passport complies with the Schengen entry requirements using the
    online tool. Priority services are available for more urgent travel, at an additional
    fee.
    • Ensure that they have documentation required by immigration authorities, such as
    proof of sufficient funds for the duration of their stay or a return ticket.
    • Continue to buy comprehensive travel insurance, as UK-issued EHICs may no longer
    be valid depending on the country they are visiting. People with pre-existing medical
    conditions, which would have been covered by the EHIC, should discuss how this
    would affect travel plans and insurance cover with their GP and insurer.
    • Contact the relevant EU country’s authority to see if they need to start paying any
    social security contributions in that country.
    • If intending to drive in the EU, familiarise themselves with the information in the
    transport section of this chapter which details the documents that may be required.
    • Check the roaming policy of their mobile operator before travelling to the EU and
    EEA countries.

    What a pain in the arse

    "There may be new document requirements for drivers (both commercial and private),
    who plan on driving to, from or within the EU, to comply with. "

    I mean, what the fuck does that mean? "May be"? Will there, yes or no? And if so, what? How to I apply? How long in advance? What happens if I don't? Christ, what a clusterfuck.
    "UK driving licence holders who live in the EU, EEA or Switzerland should exchange
    their UK driving licence for a licence in the country where they live before 31 October
    2019. Licence exchange arrangements may stop in some EU and EEA countries, if
    we leave without a deal, and UK licence holders may then have to retake their driving
    test in the EU or EEA country where they live."

    :cold_sweat:
    Gifts:
    • If an individual receives a gift from outside the UK that is worth £39 or less, no import
    VAT is due.
    • To qualify as gifts, goods must be: described as gifts on the customs declaration; for
    a birthday, anniversary or other occasion; sent between private individuals (not
    companies); and intended for personal use.

    So if my good friend who lives in Brussels sends me a nice box of chocolates, we need to -- what, work out the exchange rate on the day it was bought? Whom do I pay?
  • Byronic said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    A tragic series of terrible errors, by all sides. Yes, the similarity is painful.
    Byronic said:


    And you accuse Leavers of living in the past. FFS.

    Shome mishtake shorely?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,035

    Barnesian said:

    philiph said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenster said:

    I think Boris is lining up to resign the government on 19th October.

    Resignation on Friday 18th I think when EU have formally rejected his deal and before he is legally obliged to write the letter.

    LOTO becomes PM but loses VONC on Monday 21st October. He remains as PM.
    Corbyn writes extension letter which EU accepts.
    Election called 14 days later on Monday 4th November for Thursday 12th December with Corbyn as PM.
    Is it right that Corbyn automatically becomes PM? Isn't the gig offered to someone who it is believed has the confidence of the house?
    If Johnson resigns and doesn't want to be the PM who writes the extension letter, then he has to engineer Corbyn into that role. As LOTO Corbyn is the least controversial choice. Who knows whether he has the confidence of the house until it is tested the following Monday?
    What are our MPs going to do with an extension?
    Have a General Election on 12th Dec.

    Depending on the result we will have
    either
    1) a Tory government with a majority that can dump the DUP , leave NI in the CU and get a WA deal
    or
    2) a minority Labour government that attempts to negotiate a CU deal with the EU before putting it to a referendum.

    Both scenarios will require a further extension but for a clear purpose.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,383

    Is Germany not denying what was said more or less the same as the blonde lady whose name escapes me not denying having an affair with the then mayor?

    A paid live interview with Piers Morgan ?
    If so I missed it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,673

    Saffers to get a three figure score?

    40-0 after half an hour :open_mouth:

    This is the sort of score usually reserved for second-division Sevens matches. Sadly it shows up the need for World Rugby to develop those nations outside the top 10.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,393

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/08/brexit-irish-border-technology

    This piece makes a number of good points. Most salient for me was pointing out the hypocrisy of Brexiteers prioritising questions of English identity and nationhood over economics or technocratic ease, but expecting the Irish to be amenable to a technocratic solution to the border question and simply accept the re-eraction of borders across their country.

    When did Nothern Ireland get annexed in to their country? I thought it was a part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
    I think you have just illustrated the point that the article makes. If you can't see that there are millions of Irish people (living on both sides of the border) for whom a united Ireland, achieved peacefully and with consent, is a completely legitimate aspiration, then you can't expect anyone to respect and privilege your English nationalist aspirations either.
    Its an aspiration not a fact.

    The voters of the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU, that is a fact.
    The voters of Northern Ireland have not voted for a United Ireland.

    So the latter is subservient to the former. Brexit is more important than aspirations for a united Ireland.
    But the Good Friday Agreement predates the Brexit referendum, so the UK should leave in a way that respects it. The simplest way to do this is for the UK to leave the EU while remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market. It's stupid to be considering any other way of leaving the EU.
    Ireland leaving the customs union doesn't violate the GFA though. Show me a single passage of the GFA or court case that says it does.

    Hence all this bullshit about "the spirit of the GFA". I'm quite content to respect the GFA to the absolute letter of the law.
    Is there a problem with the UK staying in the Customs Union and Single Market?
    Yes its completely illogical, there is a reason not one other country is in both but not the EU, we may as well stay in the EU if we were to do that, we voted to leave.

    Give me one good reason to leave the EU but stay in the customs union and single market please.
    Because the vote was very close and that is a 'soft' Brexit. The vote wasn't for No Deal.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,255
    Danny565 said:

    Great, but realistically she's going to need to have the balls to remove Johnson from office for that to happen.
    And find agreement with 320-odd other MPs on who should replace him, with enough of a plan to sustain said person through 6-12 months of government.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    A tragic series of terrible errors, by all sides. Yes, the similarity is painful.
    Byronic said:


    And you accuse Leavers of living in the past. FFS.

    Shome mishtake shorely?
    My comparison went back to 1914, which is interesting and reasonable. His went back to 1913, which is just idiotic.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    kamski said:



    Is there a problem with the UK staying in the Customs Union and Single Market?

    Yes its completely illogical, there is a reason not one other country is in both but not the EU, we may as well stay in the EU if we were to do that, we voted to leave.

    Give me one good reason to leave the EU but stay in the customs union and single market please.
    We protect our economy, which is closely integrated with the rest of the EU, but we leave the political structures, CAP and CFP. Leaving the CAP is particularly significant from the budget point of view.

    Having left the political structures it would then be easier to gently disengage in the future, if the British people elected governments with that policy.

    In terms of "getting Brexit done" it was the obvious compromise position that would have achieved that and prevented any economic shock - thus undercutting any impetus for a "Rejoin" campaign.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,842
    Newton Dunn reporting major concerns in Cabinet.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,475
    Byronic said:

    If Number 10 have overspun it then it should be very easy to clear up.

    Merkel could very easily come out and say "of course Northern Ireland can leave the customs union, it is afterall a part of the United Kingdom and we respect that, we believe we can get a deal respecting that". Go on then!
    Quite. Merkel hasn't denied it, and she won't, because, basically, she said it.

    Remainers here need to get a grip and see the EU for what it is. A racket.
    I don’t care if she said it . It’s been obvious for 3 years .
  • TGOHF2 said:
    Hopefully less dying in a ditch this time around.
    It definitely, definitely won't be over by Christmas (2029).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,953
    edited October 2019
    Labour's never been motivated by anything other than electoral self interest in this whole shebang so it's tough to criticise Johnson for steering the Tories there now (I think May was genuinely trying to put country before party - she was beasted for it)
  • nico67 said:

    If a majority in the UK is enough to Leave the EU why isn’t a majority in NI who support a backstop enough to support that .

    I thought Leavers loved the will of the people .

    Because NI isn't a sovereign country, it is part of the UK. Customs and foreign policy are issues reserved to the sovereign country, our United Kingdom.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,908
    None of us will make it to 31/10 if we get overexcited about every tweet or supposed conversation.

    For some, it seems, every syllable from Merkel or Macron is an insult to be rebutted at all costs. Language and translation can change meaning and nuance. Almost inevitably (and culturally), Merkel's language is reported as aggressive, intimidating and brusque while the British are of course the voice of sweet reason.

    It may be part of the No.10 strategy to demonise the Europeans and push some cultural buttons while Boris will be well aware a flounce from a summit means a 5-point lift in the polls.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Newton Dunn reporting major concerns in Cabinet.

    Morgan and Julian Smith
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 14,188
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's never been motivated by anything other than electoral self interest in this whole shebang so it's tough to criticise Johnson for steering the Tories there now (I think May was genuinely trying to put country before party - she was beasted for it)

    No, no. She didn't "reach out". We were told that at the time.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,851
    Mein Irisch kind, wo weilest Du?
    Byronic said:

    If Number 10 have overspun it then it should be very easy to clear up.

    Merkel could very easily come out and say "of course Northern Ireland can leave the customs union, it is afterall a part of the United Kingdom and we respect that, we believe we can get a deal respecting that". Go on then!
    Quite. Merkel hasn't denied it, and she won't, because, basically, she said it.

    Remainers here need to get a grip and see the EU for what it is. A racket.
    Nick Ridley in 1990 on the EMU: "a German racket designed to take over the whole of Europe".
    He wasn't wrong.
  • kamski said:



    Is there a problem with the UK staying in the Customs Union and Single Market?

    Yes its completely illogical, there is a reason not one other country is in both but not the EU, we may as well stay in the EU if we were to do that, we voted to leave.

    Give me one good reason to leave the EU but stay in the customs union and single market please.
    We protect our economy, which is closely integrated with the rest of the EU, but we leave the political structures, CAP and CFP. Leaving the CAP is particularly significant from the budget point of view.

    Having left the political structures it would then be easier to gently disengage in the future, if the British people elected governments with that policy.

    In terms of "getting Brexit done" it was the obvious compromise position that would have achieved that and prevented any economic shock - thus undercutting any impetus for a "Rejoin" campaign.
    It is true that we would have left the political structures in that we would have had no say in the rules and regulations but we would have been forced to follow all rules and regulations of both the single market and customs union still.

    By leaving the political structures we don't mean not having a say in the rules we are subject to, we mean writing our own rules.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,931
    Byronic said:

    Christ. So the Germans want war, rather than just dystopian no deal?

    Spam fritters it is. Stock up now.
    Yes, I’m pissed off by the attitude of the EU on this too, as dickish as Johnson’s administration is too.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,564
    edited October 2019
    TGOHF2 said:

    Time for a GE - until there is we are going round in circles.

    Unless there is a Conservative majority, we continue to go round in circles....

    That Conservative majority does the EU no good. Why would they grant us an extension when we have until 31st October to sort our shit out - knowing we will not No Deal?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,564
    edited October 2019
    47-0 half time.

    And Canada with a man red-carded. The triple score is within reach....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,478
    edited October 2019
    So when do BMW and prosecco producers start knocking down Merkel's door asking for a Brexit deal?

    They are cutting it way too fine for my liking.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    kamski said:



    Is there a problem with the UK staying in the Customs Union and Single Market?

    Yes its completely illogical, there is a reason not one other country is in both but not the EU, we may as well stay in the EU if we were to do that, we voted to leave.

    Give me one good reason to leave the EU but stay in the customs union and single market please.
    We protect our economy, which is closely integrated with the rest of the EU, but we leave the political structures, CAP and CFP. Leaving the CAP is particularly significant from the budget point of view.

    Having left the political structures it would then be easier to gently disengage in the future, if the British people elected governments with that policy.

    In terms of "getting Brexit done" it was the obvious compromise position that would have achieved that and prevented any economic shock - thus undercutting any impetus for a "Rejoin" campaign.
    It is true that we would have left the political structures in that we would have had no say in the rules and regulations but we would have been forced to follow all rules and regulations of both the single market and customs union still.

    By leaving the political structures we don't mean not having a say in the rules we are subject to, we mean writing our own rules.
    Any company that wants to sell into the EU Single Market will have to abide by a large number of their rules - so the idea that we would have complete freedom to set our own rules is something of a myth.

    I wasn't advocating the arrangement as a perfect end state. It clearly has its demerits (which is why I support EU membership in preference to it). However, you asked the question to provide "one good reason" and I think I provided more than one good reason in reply.
This discussion has been closed.