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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pact that will make the Commons seat predictors a lot less

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  • Options
    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    GIN1138 said:

    Boris is in a bit of bind really regarding the forthcoming Tory manifesto:

    Commit to No Deal and he has a rebellion of 50 to 80 Tory MPs; avoid committing to No Deal and he'll be fighting Farage and his mob in the GE.

    I look forward to seeing which way he screws up that decision.

    Um, no. Seek a deal, be ready to leave without one. You can't 'seek' no deal. You can't 'demand' no agreement. You can't even rob a bank if the bank gives you the money. Amazed this concept has to be explained again and again.
    If he continues to seek a deal, Farage will be fighting him.

    So what?

    BXP is already down to 13% in the polls and when the campaign gets underway they'll lose at least another 5-6% as people will understand there's only one way Brexit can be secured and that's with Boris.
    Ah, but do people want Brexit, or do they want Brexit? If they want Brexit, they should vote for the Brexit Party. But if they want Brexit instead, it's got to be the Tories.
    It's not clear whether the DUP are more in favour of Brexit or Brexit (probably either will do) but it's possible that they actually want a third option -- Brexit -- which is a lot more like Brexit than Brexit, but with subtle differences.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    Floater said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    What he’s saying is the Kurds are acting out of their own self interest not because they are strong allies of the US and therefore we do t owe them any favours
    Er, they bore the brunt of the fighting against ISIS!
    Yes, but everyone knows the Kurds like a good fight.
    I think the point Trump is making is that they can't like a good fight that much. Why weren't they at Hastings, Agincourt, Waterloo or Balaclava?
    They weren’t down Romford high street last Friday night either.
    ah Romford high street, such memories.....
    I live 8 minutes away and haven’t been there in 5 years. Old memories are all I’ll have of that dump now. The new Dagenham
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,470
    edited October 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Question: if the woman involved in the alleged car crash in Northants sets foot in any country where the Queen is head of state, such as Barbados or Canada, could she be extradited to the UK?

    It’s had a fair deal of coverage here on NPR, reported fairly straight. But the clear consensus is that there is no way she’ll lose her protection or immunity.
    I bet if the same thing were to happen in reverse the Americans would un-ironically demand that we waive immunity.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.
    HYUFD gets his history wrong again!
    This is from Fox News Security correspondent. Trump may be pretty short of friends soon.

    https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1182053870744276993?s=19
    Some real awkward conversations probably happening among former allies and comrades in arms no doubt.
  • Options
    eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Foxy said:

    Despite all the accusations Labour is not having a purge.The members are sticking by their MPs. The Tories are the ones having the purge.

    https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/1182052040622710784?s=19

    I think liz would make a good speaker. She’s probably equal distance from both front benches right now, no political career left in the Labour Party for someone so blairite, and I think the right personality for a speaker. Far better choice than Harman imo
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,581

    rcs1000 said:

    Labour will grant Boris Johnson a General Election on November 26 if Brexit isn’t delivered by Halloween:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10102153/labour-grant-boris-election-nov-26/

    For God's sake everyone: get a six week extension and have the F*CKING election.

    And then we at least stand a chance of having a government. I almost don't care what hue right now, so long as we get a new selection of MPs.
    A six week extension for a GE will just lead to a further extension after the GE to allow whatever government is elected to pursue it's version of Brexit or Ref2. (Unless the LDs win a majority, in which case 6 weeks should be enough time to Revoke.)

    Excepting a LD miracle, six months is the minimum extension period the EU should be offering imo.
    We don't know whether the Lib Dem pledge to revoke A50 via prerogative power is legal. It would certainly end up in the Supreme Court via a reverse Miller case brought by Brexiters. Given the implications of either the Supreme Court or CJEU finding we had actually left by accident months down the line I'd expect even a Lib Dem majority government would need to extend to cover themselves. And a Lib Dem majority government would see some remarkably unexpected people elected. There may be several Stephen Lloyds in there so a majority Lib Dem government may not have a majority for a Revoke Act.
    They could simply pass an Act akin to the 'European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017' empowering the PM to revoke A50.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,314

    Boris is in a bit of bind really regarding the forthcoming Tory manifesto:

    Commit to No Deal and he has a rebellion of 50 to 80 Tory MPs; avoid committing to No Deal and he'll be fighting Farage and his mob in the GE.

    I look forward to seeing which way he screws up that decision.

    Um, no. Seek a deal, be ready to leave without one. You can't 'seek' no deal. You can't 'demand' no agreement. You can't even rob a bank if the bank gives you the money. Amazed this concept has to be explained again and again.
    If he continues to seek a deal, Farage will be fighting him.

    So it would seem, but Farage is wrong - very clearly so in my opinion.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793

    Why Nov 26th (a Tuesday) and not the 28th (a Thursday)?

    Yeah but the lead that Con has is now way smaller than it was when the 2017 general election was called.

    If Jezza can increase Labour's vote share by the same amount as he did in 2017 and if the Tories vote share drops by the same amount as it did in 2017 then Jezza would win with a comfotable majority.

    And he's not getting any younger. I saw him on the news the other day and he's looking really quite old now.

    Time won't wait for him forever. This could be his final shot to be PM and he knows it.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,543
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    The only question needed about the Kurds is "What does Putin want?" The rest explains itself.
  • Options
    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.
    HYUFD gets his history wrong again!
    He doesn't always get history wrong.

    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .

    sometimes he gets current affairs wrong.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,909
    Charles said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    egg said:

    Chris said:

    Charles said:

    What he’s saying is the Kurds are acting out of their own self interest not because they are strong allies of the US and therefore we do t owe them any favours

    That’s a plausible argument to make (even though he has made the wrong decision)
    You find his argument plausible? About Normandy and all?
    He’s not going to end up in an orange jump suit. 🙁. His lawyer will plead insanity and keep him out of jail.
    What Charles is saying is that Trump is using Normandy as a metaphor. He badly misspoke, but his point does make sense. If he'd said 'What you have to understand is that whist the Kurds were fighting alongside us, it wasn't like we were storming the beaches at Normandy together - they were fighting for their land, acting in their own self interest.'

    I agree that the USA's treatment of the Kurds has been apalling by the way. But it's silly to assume that Trump is actually resentful that there was no Kurdish assistance in the liberation of France. It's Twitter outrage.
    Are you saying we should dig around in Trump's insanity for the nugget of truth that might be at the heart of his ramblings?
    And is this spirit of consensus something that is integral to Trump's project, or the attitude of his rapey fratboy fanclub? No, it isn't. So stuff him and his stupid orange head.
    Not at all. I'm saying we should probably seek to find the most plausible explanation for his stranger public statements, even if it's more mundane and less fun than declaring him a lunatic.
    Seeking plausible explanations for things he says is a mug's game. He's a pathological liar, a self-serving manipulator and a vicious, gaslighting enemy of the truth. You will never derive any insight from listening to him.
    I don't say that kind of thing about anyone; I find it very interesting listening to people I disagree with if there's a chance they are sincere, but Trump is anything but. There's no truth or meaning to be had from him. None at all.
    Except that what he is saying is that a Kurds were allies of convenience and hence can expect no loyalty from the US

    That *matters*.

    And you can bet that other countries will be listening to that, not laughing about Normandy
    Any leader who trusts Trumpton as an ally is a fool. The man is ill.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.
    HYUFD gets his history wrong again!
    Over 60% of Syria is now in the hands of the Syrian Government and Syrian Army, only 1% in IS hands, less than 30% in Kurdish hands
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,901

    Boris is in a bit of bind really regarding the forthcoming Tory manifesto:

    Commit to No Deal and he has a rebellion of 50 to 80 Tory MPs; avoid committing to No Deal and he'll be fighting Farage and his mob in the GE.

    I look forward to seeing which way he screws up that decision.

    Um, no. Seek a deal, be ready to leave without one. You can't 'seek' no deal. You can't 'demand' no agreement. You can't even rob a bank if the bank gives you the money. Amazed this concept has to be explained again and again.
    If he continues to seek a deal, Farage will be fighting him.

    No deal as a destination has never been a vote winner. Threatening to walk away with no deal if the Remain alliance refuse to respect the referendum result by backing a deal is a different matter
  • Options
    isam said:

    Floater said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    What he’s saying is the Kurds are acting out of their own self interest not because they are strong allies of the US and therefore we do t owe them any favours
    Er, they bore the brunt of the fighting against ISIS!
    Yes, but everyone knows the Kurds like a good fight.
    I think the point Trump is making is that they can't like a good fight that much. Why weren't they at Hastings, Agincourt, Waterloo or Balaclava?
    They weren’t down Romford high street last Friday night either.
    ah Romford high street, such memories.....
    I live 8 minutes away and haven’t been there in 5 years. Old memories are all I’ll have of that dump now. The new Dagenham
    Nah, that's Ilford town centre!
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,543
    GIN1138 said:

    Why Nov 26th (a Tuesday) and not the 28th (a Thursday)?

    Yeah but the lead that Con has is now way smaller than it was when the 2017 general election was called.

    If Jezza can increase Labour's vote share by the same amount as he did in 2017 and if the Tories vote share drops by the same amount as it did in 2017 then Jezza would win with a comfotable majority.

    And he's not getting any younger. I saw him on the news the other day and he's looking really quite old now.

    Time won't wait for him forever. This could be his final shot to be PM and he knows it.
    Yeah, but better still in the New Year.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    I never said I supported Trump's actions but it is a fact the Kurds did not defeat IS in Syria, Putin and Assad did, the Kurds mainly protected their own
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,909
    GIN1138 said:

    Why Nov 26th (a Tuesday) and not the 28th (a Thursday)?

    I was wondering that? It's a rather odd detail that makes me think it could just be a genuine report (as if it was fake news you'd make it Thursday 28th)
    Either that or the YTS kid has been doing the subbing again.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.
    HYUFD gets his history wrong again!
    Over 60% of Syria is now in the hands of the Syrian Government and Syrian Army, only 1% in IS hands, less than 30% in Kurdish hands
    IS mostly operated in the east and north, near the Iraqi border.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645

    Boris is in a bit of bind really regarding the forthcoming Tory manifesto:

    Commit to No Deal and he has a rebellion of 50 to 80 Tory MPs; avoid committing to No Deal and he'll be fighting Farage and his mob in the GE.

    I look forward to seeing which way he screws up that decision.

    Um, no. Seek a deal, be ready to leave without one. You can't 'seek' no deal. You can't 'demand' no agreement. You can't even rob a bank if the bank gives you the money. Amazed this concept has to be explained again and again.
    If he continues to seek a deal, Farage will be fighting him.

    So it would seem, but Farage is wrong - very clearly so in my opinion.
    It will all come down to how many agree with you. Brexiteers can win an election regardless of a remain alliance if enough hang together. It's a chaotic situation so hard to judge, but what % for BXP sinks CON, depending on the LAB score?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.
    HYUFD gets his history wrong again!
    This is from Fox News Security correspondent. Trump may be pretty short of friends soon.

    https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1182053870744276993?s=19
    Sounds like the abandoning of the White Russians in the 1920s
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,581

    GIN1138 said:

    Why Nov 26th (a Tuesday) and not the 28th (a Thursday)?

    I was wondering that? It's a rather odd detail that makes me think it could just be a genuine report (as if it was fake news you'd make it Thursday 28th)
    Either that or the YTS kid has been doing the subbing again.
    Lol! YTS finished in 1989 :smile:
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    With respect to Trump and his Kurd comments, I don't think it helps to spend so much time on the trivial details as that distracts from the more important substance.

    The media and his opponents have made this mistake continuously since he announced his candidacy. One can never keep up with the verbal diarrhoea, but the policy really matters.

    Making America an inconsistent ally will make current and potential allies wary about committing to a partnership with the US. That will have consequences long after Trump's comments on the contribution made by the Kurds to defeating Hitlerism are forgotten.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Foxy said:

    Despite all the accusations Labour is not having a purge.The members are sticking by their MPs. The Tories are the ones having the purge.

    https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/1182052040622710784?s=19

    Kate Hoey, Ian Austin, Frank Field, Luciana Berger and Chuka Umunna beg to differ
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    Why Nov 26th (a Tuesday) and not the 28th (a Thursday)?

    Yeah but the lead that Con has is now way smaller than it was when the 2017 general election was called.

    If Jezza can increase Labour's vote share by the same amount as he did in 2017 and if the Tories vote share drops by the same amount as it did in 2017 then Jezza would win with a comfotable majority.
    In 2017, the Tory share went up compared with 2015.



  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.
    HYUFD gets his history wrong again!
    This is from Fox News Security correspondent. Trump may be pretty short of friends soon.

    https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1182053870744276993?s=19
    Sounds like the abandoning of the White Russians in the 1920s
    And the South Vietnamese in 1975.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    I never said I supported Trump's actions but it is a fact the Kurds did not defeat IS in Syria, Putin and Assad did, the Kurds mainly protected their own
    When you use the word "fact", I'm think that maybe you and I think it means something different.

    I think what you meant to say was "opinion".

    You might even get to say "considered opinion", or "opinion based on having read an article or two on-line".

    But I don't think you get to say "fact".
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,314
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    The only question needed about the Kurds is "What does Putin want?" The rest explains itself.
    I see it more as a battle for the soul of Turkey. Ever since the US sloppily supported the coup against Erdogan he has been moving closer to Russia, threatening to buy their missile defence systems etc. But Turkey hates Assad and the Russians support him. So Trump is giving Turkey the greenlight in Syria. I would imagine in return he's got lots of juicy weapons orders and potentially they will cancel that missile defence deal with Russia. Turkey has been playing this game for many years.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    I never said I supported Trump's actions but it is a fact the Kurds did not defeat IS in Syria, Putin and Assad did, the Kurds mainly protected their own
    Putin and Assad mostly defeated the Syrian Democratic forces.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924
    HYUFD said:

    Former Australian PM Julia Gillard on Peston now

    Does her partner know?
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    GIN1138 said:

    Boris is in a bit of bind really regarding the forthcoming Tory manifesto:

    Commit to No Deal and he has a rebellion of 50 to 80 Tory MPs; avoid committing to No Deal and he'll be fighting Farage and his mob in the GE.

    I look forward to seeing which way he screws up that decision.

    Um, no. Seek a deal, be ready to leave without one. You can't 'seek' no deal. You can't 'demand' no agreement. You can't even rob a bank if the bank gives you the money. Amazed this concept has to be explained again and again.
    If he continues to seek a deal, Farage will be fighting him.

    So what?

    BXP is already down to 13% in the polls and when the campaign gets underway they'll lose at least another 5-6% as people will understand there's only one way Brexit can be secured and that's with Boris.
    BXP voters have been supporting Boris because of his commitment to getting us out on the 31st. As soon as he sends the extension request to Brussels, many of them will go back to Farage. They don't know whether Boris will really go through with No Deal. His policy is to get a deal, but it's become clear that there's nothing he could suggest that the EU would agree to. A Boris govt (unless it has a clear majority eg. 40+) will still be at the mercy of its rebels, so it's far from true that "there's only one way Brexit can be secured and that's with Boris".
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Floater said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Labour will grant Boris Johnson a General Election on November 26 if Brexit isn’t delivered by Halloween:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10102153/labour-grant-boris-election-nov-26/

    For God's sake everyone: get a six week extension and have the F*CKING election.

    And then we at least stand a chance of having a government. I almost don't care what hue right now, so long as we get a new selection of MPs.
    Absurd.
    No, hes right - we need an election - and rid of Bercow :-)
    Bercow for PM!
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,543
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Despite all the accusations Labour is not having a purge.The members are sticking by their MPs. The Tories are the ones having the purge.

    https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/1182052040622710784?s=19

    Kate Hoey, Ian Austin, Frank Field, Luciana Berger and Chuka Umunna beg to differ
    I don't think any of those were deselected or had the whip withdrawn, though militants did make noises.

    The fact is that the Tory party is more Stalinist than the Stalinists.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793

    GIN1138 said:

    Why Nov 26th (a Tuesday) and not the 28th (a Thursday)?

    Yeah but the lead that Con has is now way smaller than it was when the 2017 general election was called.

    If Jezza can increase Labour's vote share by the same amount as he did in 2017 and if the Tories vote share drops by the same amount as it did in 2017 then Jezza would win with a comfotable majority.
    In 2017, the Tory share went up compared with 2015.



    It went down from where it was at the start of the campaign though.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election

    If Con's lead was to fall by a similar amount during the 2019 general election and if Labour's was to go up by a similar amount as it did during 2017 Jezza would end up with a decent majority.

    I don't think that's what will happen myself but its not unreasonable for Jezza to go for it.
  • Options
    eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.
    HYUFD gets his history wrong again!
    This is from Fox News Security correspondent. Trump may be pretty short of friends soon.

    https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1182053870744276993?s=19
    Suddenly the last couple of weeks it’s beginning to feel like a 1 term presidency.
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Why Nov 26th (a Tuesday) and not the 28th (a Thursday)?

    Yeah but the lead that Con has is now way smaller than it was when the 2017 general election was called.

    If Jezza can increase Labour's vote share by the same amount as he did in 2017 and if the Tories vote share drops by the same amount as it did in 2017 then Jezza would win with a comfotable majority.
    In 2017, the Tory share went up compared with 2015.



    It went down from where it was at the start of the campaign though.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election

    You poor misguided child! Those are crappy opinion polls, not the actual previous general election result!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    I never said I supported Trump's actions but it is a fact the Kurds did not defeat IS in Syria, Putin and Assad did, the Kurds mainly protected their own
    Putin and Assad mostly defeated the Syrian Democratic forces.
    There is more Syrian Democratic forces controlled land in Syria now than IS controlled land
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    I never said I supported Trump's actions but it is a fact the Kurds did not defeat IS in Syria, Putin and Assad did, the Kurds mainly protected their own
    That isn't what the BBC have reported over the last few years. My impression has been that Assad concentrated on fighting the non-Kurdish and non-IS rebels, while the Kurds fought IS (with US air cover and special forces assistance).
  • Options
    eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Despite all the accusations Labour is not having a purge.The members are sticking by their MPs. The Tories are the ones having the purge.

    https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/1182052040622710784?s=19

    Kate Hoey, Ian Austin, Frank Field, Luciana Berger and Chuka Umunna beg to differ
    I don't think any of those were deselected or had the whip withdrawn, though militants did make noises.

    The fact is that the Tory party is more Stalinist than the Stalinists.
    I’ll give HY field as a deselection. But wrong on the others.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    I never said I supported Trump's actions but it is a fact the Kurds did not defeat IS in Syria, Putin and Assad did, the Kurds mainly protected their own
    Putin and Assad mostly defeated the Syrian Democratic forces.
    There is more Syrian Democratic forces controlled land in Syria now than IS controlled land
    Yes, because the Kurds now control the former IS heartlands in the east and northeast, along the Iraqi border.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,543

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    The only question needed about the Kurds is "What does Putin want?" The rest explains itself.
    I see it more as a battle for the soul of Turkey. Ever since the US sloppily supported the coup against Erdogan he has been moving closer to Russia, threatening to buy their missile defence systems etc. But Turkey hates Assad and the Russians support him. So Trump is giving Turkey the greenlight in Syria. I would imagine in return he's got lots of juicy weapons orders and potentially they will cancel that missile defence deal with Russia. Turkey has been playing this game for many years.
    Turkey is not attacking Assad though, they are attacking the Kurds. Putin has just driven another spike between 2 enemies of Russia, and all via his Manchurian Candidate.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    Dadge said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris is in a bit of bind really regarding the forthcoming Tory manifesto:

    Commit to No Deal and he has a rebellion of 50 to 80 Tory MPs; avoid committing to No Deal and he'll be fighting Farage and his mob in the GE.

    I look forward to seeing which way he screws up that decision.

    Um, no. Seek a deal, be ready to leave without one. You can't 'seek' no deal. You can't 'demand' no agreement. You can't even rob a bank if the bank gives you the money. Amazed this concept has to be explained again and again.
    If he continues to seek a deal, Farage will be fighting him.

    So what?

    BXP is already down to 13% in the polls and when the campaign gets underway they'll lose at least another 5-6% as people will understand there's only one way Brexit can be secured and that's with Boris.
    BXP voters have been supporting Boris because of his commitment to getting us out on the 31st. As soon as he sends the extension request to Brussels, many of them will go back to Farage.
    That's certainly what Remainers are hoping for but it isn't going to happen (IMO)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited October 2019
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Despite all the accusations Labour is not having a purge.The members are sticking by their MPs. The Tories are the ones having the purge.

    https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/1182052040622710784?s=19

    Kate Hoey, Ian Austin, Frank Field, Luciana Berger and Chuka Umunna beg to differ
    I don't think any of those were deselected or had the whip withdrawn, though militants did make noises.

    The fact is that the Tory party is more Stalinist than the Stalinists.
    Field and Hoey lost confidence votes held by their local parties, of the Tories only Grieve and Lee lost confidence votes
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793

    Floater said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Labour will grant Boris Johnson a General Election on November 26 if Brexit isn’t delivered by Halloween:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10102153/labour-grant-boris-election-nov-26/

    For God's sake everyone: get a six week extension and have the F*CKING election.

    And then we at least stand a chance of having a government. I almost don't care what hue right now, so long as we get a new selection of MPs.
    Absurd.
    No, hes right - we need an election - and rid of Bercow :-)
    Bercow for PM!
    Bollocks To Bercow! :D
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    NeilVW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Why Nov 26th (a Tuesday) and not the 28th (a Thursday)?

    I was wondering that? It's a rather odd detail that makes me think it could just be a genuine report (as if it was fake news you'd make it Thursday 28th)
    Article states it’s the earliest day it could be held.
    That will be true mathematically, but there's no reason not to have it two days later on the traditional Thursday.

    If they knew there was an actual date being proposed it would be a Thursday. Seems like an obvious tell that the story is cobblers.
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    Floater said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Labour will grant Boris Johnson a General Election on November 26 if Brexit isn’t delivered by Halloween:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10102153/labour-grant-boris-election-nov-26/

    For God's sake everyone: get a six week extension and have the F*CKING election.

    And then we at least stand a chance of having a government. I almost don't care what hue right now, so long as we get a new selection of MPs.
    Absurd.
    No, hes right - we need an election - and rid of Bercow :-)
    Bercow for PM!
    Bollocks To Bercow! :D
    Fuck Business Boris! :D
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    GIN1138 said:

    Floater said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Labour will grant Boris Johnson a General Election on November 26 if Brexit isn’t delivered by Halloween:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10102153/labour-grant-boris-election-nov-26/

    For God's sake everyone: get a six week extension and have the F*CKING election.

    And then we at least stand a chance of having a government. I almost don't care what hue right now, so long as we get a new selection of MPs.
    Absurd.
    No, hes right - we need an election - and rid of Bercow :-)
    Bercow for PM!
    Bollocks To Bercow! :D
    Fuck Business Boris! :D
    There are some things I refuse to do. Feel free to stand in for me ...

    :D:D
  • Options
    eggegg Posts: 1,749

    NeilVW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Why Nov 26th (a Tuesday) and not the 28th (a Thursday)?

    I was wondering that? It's a rather odd detail that makes me think it could just be a genuine report (as if it was fake news you'd make it Thursday 28th)
    Article states it’s the earliest day it could be held.
    That will be true mathematically, but there's no reason not to have it two days later on the traditional Thursday.

    If they knew there was an actual date being proposed it would be a Thursday. Seems like an obvious tell that the story is cobblers.
    Wouldn’t Sundays be a better day for a GE?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793

    GIN1138 said:

    Floater said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Labour will grant Boris Johnson a General Election on November 26 if Brexit isn’t delivered by Halloween:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10102153/labour-grant-boris-election-nov-26/

    For God's sake everyone: get a six week extension and have the F*CKING election.

    And then we at least stand a chance of having a government. I almost don't care what hue right now, so long as we get a new selection of MPs.
    Absurd.
    No, hes right - we need an election - and rid of Bercow :-)
    Bercow for PM!
    Bollocks To Bercow! :D
    Fuck Business Boris! :D
    There are some things I refuse to do. Feel free to stand in for me ...

    :D:D
    :D:D:D
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,543
    egg said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Despite all the accusations Labour is not having a purge.The members are sticking by their MPs. The Tories are the ones having the purge.

    https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/1182052040622710784?s=19

    Kate Hoey, Ian Austin, Frank Field, Luciana Berger and Chuka Umunna beg to differ
    I don't think any of those were deselected or had the whip withdrawn, though militants did make noises.

    The fact is that the Tory party is more Stalinist than the Stalinists.
    I’ll give HY field as a deselection. But wrong on the others.
    Field resigned the Labour whip in August. It was not withdrawn (despite him voting with the government) nor was he deselected.
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Why Nov 26th (a Tuesday) and not the 28th (a Thursday)?

    Yeah but the lead that Con has is now way smaller than it was when the 2017 general election was called.

    If Jezza can increase Labour's vote share by the same amount as he did in 2017 and if the Tories vote share drops by the same amount as it did in 2017 then Jezza would win with a comfotable majority.
    In 2017, the Tory share went up compared with 2015.



    It went down from where it was at the start of the campaign though.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election

    If Con's lead was to fall by a similar amount during the 2019 general election and if Labour's was to go up by a similar amount as it did during 2017 Jezza would end up with a decent majority.

    I don't think that's what will happen myself but its not unreasonable for Jezza to go for it.
    But the lesson of 2017 was that the long campaign helped Labour. Theresa May made ger announcement on 17/4 and polling day was 8/6. What the Sun is reporting is Corbyn is going to offer Johnson the shortest possible campaign with FTPA motion and prorogation on the same day folloeed by immeadiate disolution with no wash up. And leaving 9 or 10 days with Johnson as PM but no parliament to restrain him before the extension kicked in.

    The Sun report makes little sense which is why I suspect there is such a chasm between the editorialising and the actual Corbyn quote used.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    I never said I supported Trump's actions but it is a fact the Kurds did not defeat IS in Syria, Putin and Assad did, the Kurds mainly protected their own
    That isn't what the BBC have reported over the last few years. My impression has been that Assad concentrated on fighting the non-Kurdish and non-IS rebels, while the Kurds fought IS (with US air cover and special forces assistance).
    Over 60% of Syria is now in Syrian government hands, only 1% in IS hands, without Assad and Putin fighting IS as well as other rebel groups that would not be the case
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    egg said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.
    HYUFD gets his history wrong again!
    This is from Fox News Security correspondent. Trump may be pretty short of friends soon.

    https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1182053870744276993?s=19
    Suddenly the last couple of weeks it’s beginning to feel like a 1 term presidency.
    We can always hope :+1:
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    egg said:

    NeilVW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Why Nov 26th (a Tuesday) and not the 28th (a Thursday)?

    I was wondering that? It's a rather odd detail that makes me think it could just be a genuine report (as if it was fake news you'd make it Thursday 28th)
    Article states it’s the earliest day it could be held.
    That will be true mathematically, but there's no reason not to have it two days later on the traditional Thursday.

    If they knew there was an actual date being proposed it would be a Thursday. Seems like an obvious tell that the story is cobblers.
    Wouldn’t Sundays be a better day for a GE?
    Many polling stations are churches, so I wouldn't have thought Sunday would be convenient.
  • Options
    eggegg Posts: 1,749
    TGOHF2 said:
    Bad news for Scotland if true, of the nations needing to take field to stand a chance of going through cancellation fever does not help them. Means France can’t pass England. Also means more rest less knocks for England.
  • Options
    eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    NeilVW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Why Nov 26th (a Tuesday) and not the 28th (a Thursday)?

    I was wondering that? It's a rather odd detail that makes me think it could just be a genuine report (as if it was fake news you'd make it Thursday 28th)
    Article states it’s the earliest day it could be held.
    That will be true mathematically, but there's no reason not to have it two days later on the traditional Thursday.

    If they knew there was an actual date being proposed it would be a Thursday. Seems like an obvious tell that the story is cobblers.
    Wouldn’t Sundays be a better day for a GE?
    Many polling stations are churches, so I wouldn't have thought Sunday would be convenient.
    Is on continent though.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Why Nov 26th (a Tuesday) and not the 28th (a Thursday)?

    Yeah but the lead that Con has is now way smaller than it was when the 2017 general election was called.

    If Jezza can increase Labour's vote share by the same amount as he did in 2017 and if the Tories vote share drops by the same amount as it did in 2017 then Jezza would win with a comfotable majority.
    In 2017, the Tory share went up compared with 2015.



    It went down from where it was at the start of the campaign though.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election

    If Con's lead was to fall by a similar amount during the 2019 general election and if Labour's was to go up by a similar amount as it did during 2017 Jezza would end up with a decent majority.

    I don't think that's what will happen myself but its not unreasonable for Jezza to go for it.
    But the lesson of 2017 was that the long campaign helped Labour. Theresa May made ger announcement on 17/4 and polling day was 8/6. What the Sun is reporting is Corbyn is going to offer Johnson the shortest possible campaign with FTPA motion and prorogation on the same day folloeed by immeadiate disolution with no wash up. And leaving 9 or 10 days with Johnson as PM but no parliament to restrain him before the extension kicked in.

    The Sun report makes little sense which is why I suspect there is such a chasm between the editorialising and the actual Corbyn quote used.
    Apparently we're hosting a summit on 3rd and 4th December and after that we're into Christmas festivites as end of November (whether it's 26th or 28th) is the earliest, latest date this year.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    I never said I supported Trump's actions but it is a fact the Kurds did not defeat IS in Syria, Putin and Assad did, the Kurds mainly protected their own
    That isn't what the BBC have reported over the last few years. My impression has been that Assad concentrated on fighting the non-Kurdish and non-IS rebels, while the Kurds fought IS (with US air cover and special forces assistance).
    Over 60% of Syria is now in Syrian government hands, only 1% in IS hands, without Assad and Putin fighting IS as well as other rebel groups that would not be the case
    Those percentages say nothing about what percentage of IS territory was won back by Assad's forces.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,314
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    The only question needed about the Kurds is "What does Putin want?" The rest explains itself.
    I see it more as a battle for the soul of Turkey. Ever since the US sloppily supported the coup against Erdogan he has been moving closer to Russia, threatening to buy their missile defence systems etc. But Turkey hates Assad and the Russians support him. So Trump is giving Turkey the greenlight in Syria. I would imagine in return he's got lots of juicy weapons orders and potentially they will cancel that missile defence deal with Russia. Turkey has been playing this game for many years.
    Turkey is not attacking Assad though, they are attacking the Kurds. Putin has just driven another spike between 2 enemies of Russia, and all via his Manchurian Candidate.
    If you don't call invading Syrian territory attacking him...
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    egg said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.
    HYUFD gets his history wrong again!
    This is from Fox News Security correspondent. Trump may be pretty short of friends soon.

    https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1182053870744276993?s=19
    Suddenly the last couple of weeks it’s beginning to feel like a 1 term presidency.
    We can always hope :+1:
    This emoji always confuses me. It looks to me sometimes as other than a thumbs up
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    edited October 2019
    Just booking our Christmas shopping delivary with Ocado!!!! :open_mouth:
  • Options

    egg said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.
    HYUFD gets his history wrong again!
    This is from Fox News Security correspondent. Trump may be pretty short of friends soon.

    https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1182053870744276993?s=19
    Suddenly the last couple of weeks it’s beginning to feel like a 1 term presidency.
    We can always hope :+1:
    This emoji always confuses me. It looks to me sometimes as other than a thumbs up
    That's just your dirty Brexiteer mind :lol:
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    egg said:

    egg said:

    NeilVW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Why Nov 26th (a Tuesday) and not the 28th (a Thursday)?

    I was wondering that? It's a rather odd detail that makes me think it could just be a genuine report (as if it was fake news you'd make it Thursday 28th)
    Article states it’s the earliest day it could be held.
    That will be true mathematically, but there's no reason not to have it two days later on the traditional Thursday.

    If they knew there was an actual date being proposed it would be a Thursday. Seems like an obvious tell that the story is cobblers.
    Wouldn’t Sundays be a better day for a GE?
    Many polling stations are churches, so I wouldn't have thought Sunday would be convenient.
    Is on continent though.
    Yes. I'm sure it could be changed in the future, however, if you are wanting to hold an election at short notice you do not want to force returning officers to have to find large numbers of new places to use as polling stations.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,470
    edited October 2019
    "Why older people should be allowed to change their legal age

    {Joona Räsänen is a bioethicist at the University of Oslo in Norway. He is currently working on a project that explores epigenetics and the bioethics of human embryonic development. He is also interested in applied philosophy, and his work has appeared in Bioethics, Journal of Medical Ethics and Medicine, Health Care and Philosophy}. "

    https://aeon.co/ideas/older-people-should-be-allowed-to-change-their-legal-age
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,631

    isam said:

    Floater said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    What he’s saying is the Kurds are acting out of their own self interest not because they are strong allies of the US and therefore we do t owe them any favours
    Er, they bore the brunt of the fighting against ISIS!
    Yes, but everyone knows the Kurds like a good fight.
    I think the point Trump is making is that they can't like a good fight that much. Why weren't they at Hastings, Agincourt, Waterloo or Balaclava?
    They weren’t down Romford high street last Friday night either.
    ah Romford high street, such memories.....
    I live 8 minutes away and haven’t been there in 5 years. Old memories are all I’ll have of that dump now. The new Dagenham
    Nah, that's Ilford town centre!
    Southend is on the phone. It's quite offended that you consider Romford a dump and wishes to remind you of Southend's claim to the title.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    The only question needed about the Kurds is "What does Putin want?" The rest explains itself.
    I see it more as a battle for the soul of Turkey. Ever since the US sloppily supported the coup against Erdogan he has been moving closer to Russia, threatening to buy their missile defence systems etc. But Turkey hates Assad and the Russians support him. So Trump is giving Turkey the greenlight in Syria. I would imagine in return he's got lots of juicy weapons orders and potentially they will cancel that missile defence deal with Russia. Turkey has been playing this game for many years.
    Turkey is not attacking Assad though, they are attacking the Kurds. Putin has just driven another spike between 2 enemies of Russia, and all via his Manchurian Candidate.
    If you don't call invading Syrian territory attacking him...
    It is not territory he holds - Syria as a nation state no longer exists except on maps.
  • Options
    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    Floater said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    What he’s saying is the Kurds are acting out of their own self interest not because they are strong allies of the US and therefore we do t owe them any favours
    Er, they bore the brunt of the fighting against ISIS!
    Yes, but everyone knows the Kurds like a good fight.
    I think the point Trump is making is that they can't like a good fight that much. Why weren't they at Hastings, Agincourt, Waterloo or Balaclava?
    They weren’t down Romford high street last Friday night either.
    ah Romford high street, such memories.....
    I live 8 minutes away and haven’t been there in 5 years. Old memories are all I’ll have of that dump now. The new Dagenham
    Nah, that's Ilford town centre!
    Southend is on the phone. It's quite offended that you consider Romford a dump and wishes to remind you of Southend's claim to the title.
    Southend is OK. It's Rachel Riley's neck of the woods after all :)
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    egg said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.
    HYUFD gets his history wrong again!
    This is from Fox News Security correspondent. Trump may be pretty short of friends soon.

    https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1182053870744276993?s=19
    Suddenly the last couple of weeks it’s beginning to feel like a 1 term presidency.
    We can always hope :+1:
    This emoji always confuses me. It looks to me sometimes as other than a thumbs up
    That's just your dirty Brexiteer mind :lol:
    I suspected as much but still don't welcome your confirmation of the possibility
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    GIN1138 said:

    Just booking our Christmas shopping delivary with Ocado!!!! :open_mouth:

    we could have done with you on BREXIT negotiations
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    I never said I supported Trump's actions but it is a fact the Kurds did not defeat IS in Syria, Putin and Assad did, the Kurds mainly protected their own
    That isn't what the BBC have reported over the last few years. My impression has been that Assad concentrated on fighting the non-Kurdish and non-IS rebels, while the Kurds fought IS (with US air cover and special forces assistance).
    Over 60% of Syria is now in Syrian government hands, only 1% in IS hands, without Assad and Putin fighting IS as well as other rebel groups that would not be the case
    Those percentages say nothing about what percentage of IS territory was won back by Assad's forces.
    Deir Ez Zor, Palmyra etc just some of the cities Assad's forces recaptured from IS
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    Floater said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    What he’s saying is the Kurds are acting out of their own self interest not because they are strong allies of the US and therefore we do t owe them any favours
    Er, they bore the brunt of the fighting against ISIS!
    Yes, but everyone knows the Kurds like a good fight.
    I think the point Trump is making is that they can't like a good fight that much. Why weren't they at Hastings, Agincourt, Waterloo or Balaclava?
    They weren’t down Romford high street last Friday night either.
    ah Romford high street, such memories.....
    I live 8 minutes away and haven’t been there in 5 years. Old memories are all I’ll have of that dump now. The new Dagenham
    Nah, that's Ilford town centre!
    Southend is on the phone. It's quite offended that you consider Romford a dump and wishes to remind you of Southend's claim to the title.
    Southend is OK. It's Rachel Riley's neck of the woods after all :)
    Used to be our annual beano destination and I remember it being very nice
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    I never said I supported Trump's actions but it is a fact the Kurds did not defeat IS in Syria, Putin and Assad did, the Kurds mainly protected their own
    That isn't what the BBC have reported over the last few years. My impression has been that Assad concentrated on fighting the non-Kurdish and non-IS rebels, while the Kurds fought IS (with US air cover and special forces assistance).
    Over 60% of Syria is now in Syrian government hands, only 1% in IS hands, without Assad and Putin fighting IS as well as other rebel groups that would not be the case
    Those percentages say nothing about what percentage of IS territory was won back by Assad's forces.
    Deir Es Zour, Palmyra etc just some of the cities Assad's forces recaptured from IS
    IS were mainly concentrated in the east of Syria, the regions now under Kurdish control.
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.
    HYUFD gets his history wrong again!
    This is from Fox News Security correspondent. Trump may be pretty short of friends soon.

    https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1182053870744276993?s=19
    Not that it is that important in the grand scheme of things, but I wonder if this move will mean that the GOP do actually vote to impeach him.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    edited October 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    Just booking our Christmas shopping delivary with Ocado!!!! :open_mouth:

    we could have done with you on BREXIT negotiations
    Ocado are really good.

    Been using them for a couple of months (after our shopping went missing for three hours with Sainsburys, only to find it'd been delivered to the wrong adddress and I had to go and collect it myself)

    Can highly recommend Ocado.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    I never said I supported Trump's actions but it is a fact the Kurds did not defeat IS in Syria, Putin and Assad did, the Kurds mainly protected their own
    That isn't what the BBC have reported over the last few years. My impression has been that Assad concentrated on fighting the non-Kurdish and non-IS rebels, while the Kurds fought IS (with US air cover and special forces assistance).
    Over 60% of Syria is now in Syrian government hands, only 1% in IS hands, without Assad and Putin fighting IS as well as other rebel groups that would not be the case
    Those percentages say nothing about what percentage of IS territory was won back by Assad's forces.
    Deir Ez Zor, Palmyra etc just some of the cities Assad's forces recaptured from IS
    Raqqa, the IS capital, retaken by the SDF, along with many others.

    We can trade names of obscure places, but unless you have some analysis, maybe from a defence thinktank, I'm just going to assume that you made up your assertion so that you could think better of Trump.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,982
    Andy_JS said:

    Question: if the woman involved in the alleged car crash in Northants sets foot in any country where the Queen is head of state, such as Barbados or Canada, could she be extradited to the UK?

    There are plenty of place she could be arrested via an IAW. In practice, she wouldn't be or would be immediately released due to US political heft. See the case of the CIA Milan station chief who had an IAW issued for his rendition activities. He was arrested in Panama, released the next day.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Why Nov 26th (a Tuesday) and not the 28th (a Thursday)?

    Yeah but the lead that Con has is now way smaller than it was when the 2017 general election was called.

    If Jezza can increase Labour's vote share by the same amount as he did in 2017 and if the Tories vote share drops by the same amount as it did in 2017 then Jezza would win with a comfotable majority.
    In 2017, the Tory share went up compared with 2015.



    It went down from where it was at the start of the campaign though.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election

    If Con's lead was to fall by a similar amount during the 2019 general election and if Labour's was to go up by a similar amount as it did during 2017 Jezza would end up with a decent majority.

    I don't think that's what will happen myself but its not unreasonable for Jezza to go for it.
    But the lesson of 2017 was that the long campaign helped Labour. Theresa May made ger announcement on 17/4 and polling day was 8/6. What the Sun is reporting is Corbyn is going to offer Johnson the shortest possible campaign with FTPA motion and prorogation on the same day folloeed by immeadiate disolution with no wash up. And leaving 9 or 10 days with Johnson as PM but no parliament to restrain him before the extension kicked in.

    The Sun report makes little sense which is why I suspect there is such a chasm between the editorialising and the actual Corbyn quote used.
    Five weeks is still a pretty long campaign - much longer than the three week campaign of February 1974.
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.
    HYUFD gets his history wrong again!
    This is from Fox News Security correspondent. Trump may be pretty short of friends soon.

    https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1182053870744276993?s=19
    Not that it is that important in the grand scheme of things, but I wonder if this move will mean that the GOP do actually vote to impeach him.
    Nah
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    I never said I supported Trump's actions but it is a fact the Kurds did not defeat IS in Syria, Putin and Assad did, the Kurds mainly protected their own
    That isn't what the BBC have reported over the last few years. My impression has been that Assad concentrated on fighting the non-Kurdish and non-IS rebels, while the Kurds fought IS (with US air cover and special forces assistance).
    Over 60% of Syria is now in Syrian government hands, only 1% in IS hands, without Assad and Putin fighting IS as well as other rebel groups that would not be the case
    Those percentages say nothing about what percentage of IS territory was won back by Assad's forces.
    Deir Ez Zor, Palmyra etc just some of the cities Assad's forces recaptured from IS
    Raqqa, the IS capital, retaken by the SDF, along with many others.

    We can trade names of obscure places, but unless you have some analysis, maybe from a defence thinktank, I'm just going to assume that you made up your assertion so that you could think better of Trump.
    Who is in control of most of Syria now, Assad or the Kurds? Answer: Assad, so it is Assad (supported by the Russians) who has prevented IS taking control of Syria outside the Kurdish and SDF heartlands
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    I never said I supported Trump's actions but it is a fact the Kurds did not defeat IS in Syria, Putin and Assad did, the Kurds mainly protected their own
    That isn't what the BBC have reported over the last few years. My impression has been that Assad concentrated on fighting the non-Kurdish and non-IS rebels, while the Kurds fought IS (with US air cover and special forces assistance).
    Over 60% of Syria is now in Syrian government hands, only 1% in IS hands, without Assad and Putin fighting IS as well as other rebel groups that would not be the case
    Those percentages say nothing about what percentage of IS territory was won back by Assad's forces.
    Deir Es Zour, Palmyra etc just some of the cities Assad's forces recaptured from IS
    IS were mainly concentrated in the east of Syria, the regions now under Kurdish control.
    The biggest city in East Syria is Deir Ez Zor, recaptured from IS by Assad's forces
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    edited October 2019
    I see Twitter is already whipping itself up into a frenzy over the lovely Julia-Hartley-Brewer appearing on Question tomorrow (today)
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    I never said I supported Trump's actions but it is a fact the Kurds did not defeat IS in Syria, Putin and Assad did, the Kurds mainly protected their own
    That isn't what the BBC have reported over the last few years. My impression has been that Assad concentrated on fighting the non-Kurdish and non-IS rebels, while the Kurds fought IS (with US air cover and special forces assistance).
    Over 60% of Syria is now in Syrian government hands, only 1% in IS hands, without Assad and Putin fighting IS as well as other rebel groups that would not be the case
    Those percentages say nothing about what percentage of IS territory was won back by Assad's forces.
    Deir Ez Zor, Palmyra etc just some of the cities Assad's forces recaptured from IS
    Raqqa, the IS capital, retaken by the SDF, along with many others.

    We can trade names of obscure places, but unless you have some analysis, maybe from a defence thinktank, I'm just going to assume that you made up your assertion so that you could think better of Trump.
    Who is in control of most of Syria now, Assad or the Kurds? Answer: Assad, so it is Assad (supported by the Russians) who has prevented IS taking control of Syria outside the Kurdish and SDF heartlands
    That's like saying it was Russia that defeated the Nazis.

    There were multiple forces involved. Ignore any and its your ignorance.
  • Options
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Question: if the woman involved in the alleged car crash in Northants sets foot in any country where the Queen is head of state, such as Barbados or Canada, could she be extradited to the UK?

    There are plenty of place she could be arrested via an IAW. In practice, she wouldn't be or would be immediately released due to US political heft. See the case of the CIA Milan station chief who had an IAW issued for his rendition activities. He was arrested in Panama, released the next day.
    Considering she is verified to have diplomatic immunity, she could literally land in Heathrow and not be arrested.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924
    HYUFD said:

    Who is in control of most of Syria now, Assad or the Kurds? Answer: Assad, so it is Assad (supported by the Russians) who has prevented IS taking control of Syria outside the Kurdish and SDF heartlands

    That doesn't logically follow.

    Firstly, it's like saying "who has MPs covering the greater landmass - SNP or Labour? It's the SNP, so don't go saying that Labour got more MPs at the last General Election"

    Secondly, Assad started off controlling most of Syria, what with him being the President and all. So your statement doesn't make logical sense. Assad could have lost ground every single day of the last decade, but if he controlled more land at the end of the period then, under your definition, he would have been the one who won the war.

    The Kurds were on the front-line with ISIS. Rather than bunkering down, and allowing Syria and Assad to do the fighting they went out and fought ISIS, at terrible cost to themselves. They believed our (the West's) assurances, and we have betrayed them.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,470
    Trump is putting cultural Marxism into practice in the sense that he makes things up that suit him regardless of whether they're true or not.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Andy_JS said:

    Trump is putting cultural Marxism into practice in the sense that he makes things up that suit him regardless of whether they're true or not.

    In what sense is that cultural Marxism?
  • Options
    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.
    HYUFD gets his history wrong again!
    This is from Fox News Security correspondent. Trump may be pretty short of friends soon.

    https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1182053870744276993?s=19
    Not that it is that important in the grand scheme of things, but I wonder if this move will mean that the GOP do actually vote to impeach him.
    The people to watch will be retiring Republicans. They need a lot of them though.
  • Options
    Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    edited October 2019
    This is the Guardian preview of the Corbyn speech. Not only us there nothing to back up the Sun's spin on a November poll fuller quotes from Corbyn reaffirm the position they won't vote for an election till an extension is active. Ie November 1st. That puts an election well into December.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/09/johnson-using-queens-speech-cynical-pre-election-stunt-corbyn-labour-manifesto
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,470

    This is the Guardian preview of the Corbyn speech. Not only us there nothing to back up the Sun's spin on a November poll fuller quotes from Corbyn reaffirm the position they won't vote for an election till an extension is active. Ie November 1st. That puts an election well into December.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/09/johnson-using-queens-speech-cynical-pre-election-stunt-corbyn-labour-manifesto

    Unless the extension agreement with the EU is signed before 1st November.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,470
    edited October 2019

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump is putting cultural Marxism into practice in the sense that he makes things up that suit him regardless of whether they're true or not.

    In what sense is that cultural Marxism?
    It was cultural Marxists who invented the idea that you can believe what you want regardless of objective truth. For instance, according to them, if person A says something that isn't intended to be racist to person B, and person B knows perfectly well that nothing racist was intended by person A, person B can still decide of their own accord that it was racist if they feel like it. They have that right to take offence even though they know none was intended. Objective truth doesn't matter. The problem is once some people start doing this, it's only a matter of time before other people start doing it as well, because they won't accept a few people gaining an advantage by doing it. I haven't summed it up very well but you know what I mean hopefuly.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump is putting cultural Marxism into practice in the sense that he makes things up that suit him regardless of whether they're true or not.

    In what sense is that cultural Marxism?
    Several members of PB are clearly culturally Marxist, without even knowing it.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924
    Gabs2 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.
    HYUFD gets his history wrong again!
    This is from Fox News Security correspondent. Trump may be pretty short of friends soon.

    https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1182053870744276993?s=19
    Not that it is that important in the grand scheme of things, but I wonder if this move will mean that the GOP do actually vote to impeach him.
    The people to watch will be retiring Republicans. They need a lot of them though.
    Either 50-odd Republicans will vote for President Trump, or virtually none will.

    Right now, we're at 50-odd.

    If it changes, it will change all in a hurry.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    edited October 2019

    This is the Guardian preview of the Corbyn speech. Not only us there nothing to back up the Sun's spin on a November poll fuller quotes from Corbyn reaffirm the position they won't vote for an election till an extension is active. Ie November 1st. That puts an election well into December.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/09/johnson-using-queens-speech-cynical-pre-election-stunt-corbyn-labour-manifesto

    Then there will be no extension as the EU want that before agreeing to an extension.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    @rcs1000 My friend seems to have created 2 new vanilla threads with his first two posts. He's not a spammer just wants to see more NI content
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Pulpstar said:

    @rcs1000 My friend seems to have created 2 new vanilla threads with his first two posts. He's not a spammer just wants to see more NI content

    Tell him to join us in the main threads!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So the US’s actions combined with Turkey’s invasion risk leading to:-

    1. A refugee crisis in Syria impacting Europe.
    2. The revival of IS and more terrorism by them in the region and in Europe.

    And will certainly lead to:-

    3. More death and destruction in Syria.
    4. The betrayal of the Kurds who did the bulk of the fighting against IS.

    Why should we consider the US an ally at all? This is not the action of an ally but of a country which will cause us harm. There are ways of describing such a country. “Ally” is not one of them.

    It was Assad and Putin who defeated IS in Syria, not the Kurds.

    The Kurds bravely defended their own lands and were supported alongside the Free Syrian Army by US, UK and French air strikes but it was only the Syrian Army with Russian Air support who drove IS out of Syria
    Is there anything you can envisage Trump or Johnson doing that wouldn't get your whole hearted support?
    I never said I supported Trump's actions but it is a fact the Kurds did not defeat IS in Syria, Putin and Assad did, the Kurds mainly protected their own
    That isn't ce).
    Over 60% of Syria is now in Syrian government hands, only 1% in IS hands, without Assad and Putin fighting IS as well as other rebel groups that would not be the case
    Those percentages say nothing about what percentage of IS territory was won back by Assad's forces.
    Deir Ez Zor, Palmyra etc just some of the cities Assad's forces recaptured from IS
    Raqqa, the IS capital, retaken by the SDF, along with many others.

    We can trade names of obscure places, but unless you have some analysis, maybe from a defence thinktank, I'm just going to assume that you made up your assertion so that you could think better of Trump.
    Who is in control of most of Syria now, Assad or the Kurds? Answer: Assad, so it is Assad (supported by the Russians) who has prevented IS taking control of Syria outside the Kurdish and SDF heartlands
    That's like saying it was Russia that defeated the Nazis.

    There were multiple forces involved. Ignore any and its your ignorance.
    Well of course the Russians were key to liberating Eastern Europe in World War 2 while the Allies liberated Western Europe.

    However Assad's forces control a greater proportion of Syria now than the Russians did after WW2
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Who is in control of most of Syria now, Assad or the Kurds? Answer: Assad, so it is Assad (supported by the Russians) who has prevented IS taking control of Syria outside the Kurdish and SDF heartlands

    That doesn't logically follow.

    Firstly, it's like saying "who has MPs covering the greater landmass - SNP or Labour? It's the SNP, so don't go saying that Labour got more MPs at the last General Election"

    Secondly, Assad started off controlling most of Syria, what with him being the President and all. So your statement doesn't make logical sense. Assad could have lost ground every single day of the last decade, but if he controlled more land at the end of the period then, under your definition, he would have been the one who won the war.

    The Kurds were on the front-line with ISIS. Rather than bunkering down, and allowing Syria and Assad to do the fighting they went out and fought ISIS, at terrible cost to themselves. They believed our (the West's) assurances, and we have betrays
    ed them.
    Yes it does logically follow.

    First as Assad's forces cover now a majority of both the population and landmass of Syria.

    Second had Assad been defeated ISIS would now be in control of most of Syria even if the Kurds still held out, so again it was Assad and his forces aided by Russia who ensured IS were defeated in Syria even if the Kurds held out in their own area with the SDF and US and western military support.

    The question for Trump is now ISIS has been defeated should US servicepersons lives still be risked defending Kurdish territory from Turkish strikes. There may well be a moral case to do so but Trump was elected on an 'America First' agenda so if America is not directly at risk he clearly feels the US should stay neutral

This discussion has been closed.