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asjohnstone

I think the value here is in "yes", it's going to be hard but I think it can get rammed through in time

Nigelb

A cheap and effective drug for treatment of mild to moderate traumatic brain injury:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-49977827

edmundintokyo

Assuming for the sake of argument that there's a deal and it somehow gets through Westminster in the allotted 25-and-a-half minutes, is the European Parliament procedurally capable of ratifying things at yakety sax speeds?

Nigelb

asjohnstone said:

I think the value here is in "yes", it's going to be hard but I think it can get rammed through in time

Should be at least 10/1, I think, and I’d not be greatly tempted at those odds.

What did Mogg mean by this (via BBC) ?
Leader of the Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg suggested it could be possible for the government to use European law to achieve no-deal.
"Theresa May got an extension not through UK law but through EU law and, until the 1972 European Communities Act is repealed, EU law is superior law in the UK," he said on BBC Radio 4's Westminster Hour....

edmundintokyo

Nigelb said:

asjohnstone said:

I think the value here is in "yes", it's going to be hard but I think it can get rammed through in time

Should be at least 10/1, I think, and I’d not be greatly tempted at those odds.

What did Mogg mean by this (via BBC) ?
Leader of the Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg suggested it could be possible for the government to use European law to achieve no-deal.
"Theresa May got an extension not through UK law but through EU law and, until the 1972 European Communities Act is repealed, EU law is superior law in the UK," he said on BBC Radio 4's Westminster Hour....

I think it means they're trying to bluff people into thinking No Deal could happen by taking legal-sounding words and arranging them into sentences, while taking care to avoid sentences that actually mean something.

StuartDickson

Appeal for calm over ‘loyalist action’ plan in event of Irish Sea border
- reports loyalist paramilitaries are “plotting action” if Northern Ireland’s place within the UK is threatened by any Brexit deal.

Lord Empey accused the DUP of having already “opened the floodgates by agreeing and advocating a regulatory border in the Irish Sea”.

He added: “This was the green light that Dublin and Brussels were waiting for.

“Having realised their monumental blunder the DUP are now trying to run away.

“Knowing the political jam that Boris Johnson is in, Dublin and Brussels applied pressure and Boris Johnson, with the blessing of the DUP, gave way.

“Nigel Dodds must take responsibility for opening this can of worms. He and his colleagues have been out-flanked, but it is the ordinary business people and the rest of us who will be asked to pay the price.”

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/crime/appeal-for-calm-over-loyalist-action-plan-in-event-of-irish-sea-border-1-9104936/

StuartDickson

London 2020

Sadiq Khan (Lab) 1/2
Rory Stewart (Ind) 7/2
Siobhan Benita (LD) 10/1
Shaun Bailey (Con) 20/1
Sian Berry (Grn) 50/1

(Shadsy)

AndyJS

edit

asjohnstone

edmundintokyo said:

Assuming for the sake of argument that there's a deal and it somehow gets through Westminster in the allotted 25-and-a-half minutes, is the European Parliament procedurally capable of ratifying things at yakety sax speeds?

For the purpose of this bet, does it have to ?

If Westminster repeals the 1972 European Communities Act I think this is a winner. As always I'm open to correction.

Nigelb

edmundintokyo said:

Nigelb said:

asjohnstone said:

I think the value here is in "yes", it's going to be hard but I think it can get rammed through in time

Should be at least 10/1, I think, and I’d not be greatly tempted at those odds.

What did Mogg mean by this (via BBC) ?
Leader of the Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg suggested it could be possible for the government to use European law to achieve no-deal.
"Theresa May got an extension not through UK law but through EU law and, until the 1972 European Communities Act is repealed, EU law is superior law in the UK," he said on BBC Radio 4's Westminster Hour....

I think it means they're trying to bluff people into thinking No Deal could happen by taking legal-sounding words and arranging them into sentences, while taking care to avoid sentences that actually mean something.

As so often in the Brexit saga, the silliest explanation is also the most plausible one.

swing_voter

Realpolitik means that I dont think a deal will get through.....BJ has burned up what little goodwill existed in Berlin (the Merkel phone call claims), whilst Labour are in no hurry to see this issue settle down for the Conservatives. I accept that the Commission would like to see this go away, but one lesson from UK-Irish history is that a hurried fix re borders & identities often has implications that last decades. My money is on an extension.

edmundintokyo

Nigelb said:

edmundintokyo said:

Nigelb said:

asjohnstone said:

I think the value here is in "yes", it's going to be hard but I think it can get rammed through in time

Should be at least 10/1, I think, and I’d not be greatly tempted at those odds.

What did Mogg mean by this (via BBC) ?
Leader of the Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg suggested it could be possible for the government to use European law to achieve no-deal.
"Theresa May got an extension not through UK law but through EU law and, until the 1972 European Communities Act is repealed, EU law is superior law in the UK," he said on BBC Radio 4's Westminster Hour....

I think it means they're trying to bluff people into thinking No Deal could happen by taking legal-sounding words and arranging them into sentences, while taking care to avoid sentences that actually mean something.

As so often in the Brexit saga, the silliest explanation is also the most plausible one.

Yup. Although TBF it is kind-of working: Everyone thinks they're bluffing about having a secret route to No Deal, but nobody can quite be sure...

moonshine

The Benn Act says that the Commons must pass a resolution on any proposed deal by the 19th October (Saturday, the day after the summit) or else the extension letter must be sent.

And yet now you get the likes of Grieve pretend that they couldn't possibly be expected to absorb all the information in the new proposal in one day. And there were even rumblings from some in Labour that they'd seek to block Parliament sitting on the Saturday at all.

If true, what a dishonest bunch of scoundrels.

Talking of war-gaming, when Labour decided not to agree to a pre-summit election, or to VONC the government after the Supreme Court judgement, what was their plan if the government managed to secure and pass a pre-election Brexit deal?

If there is a 2019 Brexit (be it 31 Oct or after a brief technical extension), what's the trigger point for an election?

edmundintokyo

moonshine said:

Talking of war-gaming, when Labour decided not to agree to a pre-summit election, or to VONC the government after the Supreme Court judgement, what was their plan if the government managed to secure and pass a pre-election Brexit deal?

If there is a 2019 Brexit (be it 31 Oct or after a brief technical extension), what's the trigger point for an election?

I think the obvious play for Labour is to make Boris tie himself to a specific deal, and request an extension, then pull the trigger for an election in the interim. This is much better than if they'd agreed an election two weeks ago, and Boris would have been able to ride the Deal and No Deal horses at the same time.

However they can now wait and see:
1) What if anything he comes back with
2) How Farage responds
3) How the parliamentary ex-Cons respond

Hopefully either (2) or (3) will be hostile. If it's (2) then they split the brexit vote so they can go for the election, if it's (3) they might want to suck it up and let $GRANDEE lead a GNU.

moonshine

edmundintokyo said:

moonshine said:

Talking of war-gaming, when Labour decided not to agree to a pre-summit election, or to VONC the government after the Supreme Court judgement, what was their plan if the government managed to secure and pass a pre-election Brexit deal?

If there is a 2019 Brexit (be it 31 Oct or after a brief technical extension), what's the trigger point for an election?

I think the obvious play for Labour is to make Boris tie himself to a specific deal, and request an extension, then pull the trigger for an election in the interim. This is much better than if they'd agreed an election two weeks ago, and Boris would have been able to ride the Deal and No Deal horses at the same time.

However they can now wait and see:
1) What if anything he comes back with
2) How Farage responds
3) How the parliamentary ex-Cons respond

Hopefully either (2) or (3) will be hostile. If it's (2) then they split the brexit vote so they can go for the election, if it's (3) they might want to suck it up and let $GRANDEE lead a GNU.

If enough MPs have voted for the motion, where do the numbers come from to either make Corbyn PM in a GRU or to hold an election?

The objection of most of the Tory 21 wasn't to Brexit but to a No Deal Brexit.

We might soon be in the perverse situation where Corbyn is the one calling for and unable to get an election and Boris being the one that stops him from calling it.

moonshine

moonshine said:

edmundintokyo said:

moonshine said:

Talking of war-gaming, when Labour decided not to agree to a pre-summit election, or to VONC the government after the Supreme Court judgement, what was their plan if the government managed to secure and pass a pre-election Brexit deal?

If there is a 2019 Brexit (be it 31 Oct or after a brief technical extension), what's the trigger point for an election?

I think the obvious play for Labour is to make Boris tie himself to a specific deal, and request an extension, then pull the trigger for an election in the interim. This is much better than if they'd agreed an election two weeks ago, and Boris would have been able to ride the Deal and No Deal horses at the same time.

However they can now wait and see:
1) What if anything he comes back with
2) How Farage responds
3) How the parliamentary ex-Cons respond

Hopefully either (2) or (3) will be hostile. If it's (2) then they split the brexit vote so they can go for the election, if it's (3) they might want to suck it up and let $GRANDEE lead a GNU.

If enough MPs have voted for the motion, where do the numbers come from to either make Corbyn PM in a GRU or to hold an election?

The objection of most of the Tory 21 wasn't to Brexit but to a No Deal Brexit.

We might soon be in the perverse situation where Corbyn is the one calling for and unable to get an election and Boris being the one that stops him from calling it.

Although I admit that if Boris comes back championing a deal and it gets turned down by Parliament, he's pretty much done for.

edmundintokyo

moonshine said:

If enough MPs have voted for the motion, where do the numbers come from to either make Corbyn PM in a GRU or to hold an election?

The objection of most of the Tory 21 wasn't to Brexit but to a No Deal Brexit.

We might soon be in the perverse situation where Corbyn is the one calling for and unable to get an election and Boris being the one that stops him from calling it.

This is true, the only winner in all of this madness is KFC

solarflare

edmundintokyo said:

moonshine said:

If enough MPs have voted for the motion, where do the numbers come from to either make Corbyn PM in a GRU or to hold an election?

The objection of most of the Tory 21 wasn't to Brexit but to a No Deal Brexit.

We might soon be in the perverse situation where Corbyn is the one calling for and unable to get an election and Boris being the one that stops him from calling it.

This is true, the only winner in all of this madness is KFC

Good news for Kilmarnock Football Clu…..wait a minute.

ydoethur

Morning all.

Is anyone running a book on which country Hyufd will want to nuke today?

eristdoof

edmundintokyo said:

another_richard said:

edmundintokyo said:

Sort of on topic, my British license doesn't have a photo, it's a ragged old scrap of paper, IIRC with a validity date set for another twenty years away or so. Was I supposed to send it in and get it replaced with a piece of plastic with one of these new-fangled photographs?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/11028839/Driving-licence-changes-what-do-paper-licence-holders-need-to-know.html

Thanks, so the key part is:

The Telegraph article about this said:

Old style paper driving licences issued before the photocard was introduced in 1998 will still be valid and should not be destroyed.

So the people who may turn out not to have this particular photo ID will be people who learned to drive before 1998, but haven't yet reached their 70th birthday, at which point they're required to renew. That's quite a big, and leave-ish, cohort, but I guess they also push you onto a plastic license if you change your details?

The "if you change your details" since 1998 covers a lot of people. Anyone who has changed address, and any one who has changed their name (e.g. through marriage).

OldKingCole

solarflare said:

edmundintokyo said:

moonshine said:

If enough MPs have voted for the motion, where do the numbers come from to either make Corbyn PM in a GRU or to hold an election?

The objection of most of the Tory 21 wasn't to Brexit but to a No Deal Brexit.

We might soon be in the perverse situation where Corbyn is the one calling for and unable to get an election and Boris being the one that stops him from calling it.

This is true, the only winner in all of this madness is KFC

Good news for Kilmarnock Football Clu…..wait a minute.

Thought it was popcorn 'manufacturers'!

And does a bus pass count; ours at any rate has a picture on it.

eristdoof

ReggieCide said:

I am a Muslim woman and don't have a driving licence nor a passport, would I be disenfranchised as a consequence. Is there wishful thinking at play here?

I don't believe you.

philiph

eristdoof said:

ReggieCide said:

I am a Muslim woman and don't have a driving licence nor a passport, would I be disenfranchised as a consequence. Is there wishful thinking at play here?

I don't believe you.

Or the answer could be yes you will be prevented from voting because you are not who you claim to be.

Proof the system works.

AlastairMeeks

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

OldKingCole

eristdoof said:

ReggieCide said:

I am a Muslim woman and don't have a driving licence nor a passport, would I be disenfranchised as a consequence. Is there wishful thinking at play here?

I don't believe you.

Now if you'd said you were a Hindu lady I'd have said there was unlikely to be a problem.

asjohnstone

ydoethur said:

Morning all.

Is anyone running a book on which country Hyufd will want to nuke today?

Did we complete the conquest of Spain yesterday ?

philiph

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

I'm not convinced the application of a'pretty please' with an engaging smile would have prised open the unchangeable WA.

moonshine

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

AlastairMeeks

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.

moonshine

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.

We’re not there (yet) with Johnson. But there are times when it serves to recognise the achievements of people with whom you disagree. He set out in July to leave the EU with a deal, that allows him to strike free trade deals with third countries, and on time.

If he does this (and he still may not) it will be some achievement.

AlastairMeeks

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.

We’re not there (yet) with Johnson. But there are times when it serves to recognise the achievements of people with whom you disagree. He set out in July to leave the EU with a deal, that allows him to strike free trade deals with third countries, and on time.

If he does this (and he still may not) it will be some achievement.

Strange that. Because when the anti-no deal MPs stopped him in his no-deal tracks, you questioned their mental health.

asjohnstone

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.

What he's trying to do is create a situation where he can be PM for the next 5 to 10 years; that's the strategy.

The form of Brexit is merely a tactical detail; I suspect he doesn't really care about anything except being PM.

AlastairMeeks

asjohnstone said:

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.

What he's trying to do is create a situation where he can be PM for the next 5 to 10 years; that's the strategy.

The form of Brexit is merely a tactical detail; I suspect he doesn't really care about anything except being PM.

Obviously so. He and Dominic Cummings are like monkeys frantically pulling levers, trying to work out which ones might open the trapdoor.

FF43

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.

We’re not there (yet) with Johnson. But there are times when it serves to recognise the achievements of people with whom you disagree. He set out in July to leave the EU with a deal, that allows him to strike free trade deals with third countries, and on time.

If he does this (and he still may not) it will be some achievement.

The deal isn't worth having beyond the avoidance of a chaotic exit on the 31st October, an arbitrary do or die date imposed by Johnson. It's less worth having than May's Deal that Johnson rejected.

Not an achievement in my book.

moonshine

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.

We’re not there (yet) with Johnson. But there are times when it serves to recognise the achievements of people with whom you disagree. He set out in July to leave the EU with a deal, that allows him to strike free trade deals with third countries, and on time.

If he does this (and he still may not) it will be some achievement.

Strange that. Because when the anti-no deal MPs stopped him in his no-deal tracks, you questioned their mental health.

It is a pity you choose to behave in this way. For many years I read your headers with admiration, without registering to comment myself.

I expressed concern about MPs mental health when I switched on sky news the day after the Supreme Court, to see them red faced, screaming and in some cases almost on the verge of tears. A concern raised over the last year by MPs from various parties and charities.

That you still now think I meant this in a derogatory way, even when I have explained otherwise, says a lot more about you than it does me. “Vile” was what I think you called me. As a published supporter of this site, you should ask yourself if this is really the way to help this excellent website thrive and grow.

TGOHF2

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.

We’re not there (yet) with Johnson. But there are times when it serves to recognise the achievements of people with whom you disagree. He set out in July to leave the EU with a deal, that allows him to strike free trade deals with third countries, and on time.

If he does this (and he still may not) it will be some achievement.

Remember the EU promised not to make any changes to the WA....

ydoethur

asjohnstone said:

ydoethur said:

Morning all.

Is anyone running a book on which country Hyufd will want to nuke today?

Did we complete the conquest of Spain yesterday ?

They Gibbed at the high cost.

AlastairMeeks

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.

We’re not there (yet) with Johnson. But there are times when it serves to recognise the achievements of people with whom you disagree. He set out in July to leave the EU with a deal, that allows him to strike free trade deals with third countries, and on time.

If he does this (and he still may not) it will be some achievement.

Strange that. Because when the anti-no deal MPs stopped him in his no-deal tracks, you questioned their mental health.

It is a pity you choose to behave in this way. For many years I read your headers with admiration, without registering to comment myself.

I expressed concern about MPs mental health when I switched on sky news the day after the Supreme Court, to see them red faced, screaming and in some cases almost on the verge of tears. A concern raised over the last year by MPs from various parties and charities.

That you still now think I meant this in a derogatory way, even when I have explained otherwise, says a lot more about you than it does me. “Vile” was what I think you called me. As a published supporter of this site, you should ask yourself if this is really the way to help this excellent website thrive and grow.

I do not accept your explanation because it is demonstrably untrue. You did not express concern for the mental health of MPs but doubted that of Remain MPs. So yes, vile.

RochdalePioneers

What makes me laugh about the Saturday sitting is Jezbollah won't be there. On perhaps the singularly most important parliamentary day for at least a fortnight he will be addressing the Kali Ma faithful in Liverpool. Originally organised so that he didn't have to go to the Peoples Vote march in London, his office insist that the gallons of blood to be imbibed have been harvested and it would be a pit to waste it when so many willing cultists will be there to drink it.

You see that referendum he wants where he will be "neutral"? This is what it will be like - him addressing the cult demanding a general election (so that they can depose of Blairite traitors like John McDonnell) whilst the country burns.

OldKingCole

asjohnstone said:

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.

What he's trying to do is create a situation where he can be PM for the next 5 to 10 years; that's the strategy.

The form of Brexit is merely a tactical detail; I suspect he doesn't really care about anything except being PM.

It's perfectly reasonable to want to be PM if one has an idea of what one wants to do...... eg Blair, and to be fair Brown, and, I think, Theresa May. If you think it's because you think you'd be good at it, or in some way it's your destiny, like Cameron and Johnson then you are much less likely to be successful.

I suspect Brown would have been a lot better at the job if he hadn't inherited a party which was somewhat tired of governing.

moonshine

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.

We’re not there (yet) with Johnson. But there are times when it serves to recognise the achievements of people with whom you disagree. He set out in July to leave the EU with a deal, that allows him to strike free trade deals with third countries, and on time.

If he does this (and he still may not) it will be some achievement.

Strange that. Because when the anti-no deal MPs stopped him in his no-deal tracks, you questioned their mental health.

It is a pity you choose to behave in this way. For many years I read your headers with admiration, without registering to comment myself.

I expressed concern about MPs mental health when I switched on sky news the day after the Supreme Court, to see them red faced, screaming and in some cases almost on the verge of tears. A concern raised over the last year by MPs from various parties and charities.

That you still now think I meant this in a derogatory way, even when I have explained otherwise, says a lot more about you than it does me. “Vile” was what I think you called me. As a published supporter of this site, you should ask yourself if this is really the way to help this excellent website thrive and grow.

I do not accept your explanation because it is demonstrably untrue. You did not express concern for the mental health of MPs but doubted that of Remain MPs. So yes, vile.

This is the last I’ll say because it’s tedious for everyone else. But you know nothing about me or my own life experiences on this issue.

They say never meet your heroes in real life. Well here we are I guess. I’ll still read your headers from time to time because they’re usually interesting and well informed. In fact they are the primary reason I kept coming back to this site for the past 12 years. But it’s clearly pointless engaging with you further.

SquareRoot

eristdoof said:

ReggieCide said:

I am a Muslim woman and don't have a driving licence nor a passport, would I be disenfranchised as a consequence. Is there wishful thinking at play here?

I don't believe you.

nor do I and even if it were true get a passport its not rocket science

MarqueeMark

ydoethur said:

asjohnstone said:

ydoethur said:

Morning all.

Is anyone running a book on which country Hyufd will want to nuke today?

Did we complete the conquest of Spain yesterday ?

They Gibbed at the high cost.

Moor! Moor!

ydoethur

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

asjohnstone said:

ydoethur said:

Morning all.

Is anyone running a book on which country Hyufd will want to nuke today?

Did we complete the conquest of Spain yesterday ?

They Gibbed at the high cost.

Moor! Moor!

I know you’re trying to ape my brilliance, but that was a bit rocky.

OldKingCole

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

asjohnstone said:

ydoethur said:

Morning all.

Is anyone running a book on which country Hyufd will want to nuke today?

Did we complete the conquest of Spain yesterday ?

They Gibbed at the high cost.

Moor! Moor!

I know you’re trying to ape my brilliance, but that was a bit rocky.

You two are going at it with mucho gusto!

ydoethur

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

asjohnstone said:

ydoethur said:

Morning all.

Is anyone running a book on which country Hyufd will want to nuke today?

Did we complete the conquest of Spain yesterday ?

They Gibbed at the high cost.

Moor! Moor!

I know you’re trying to ape my brilliance, but that was a bit rocky.

You two are going at it with mucho gusto!

Utrecht all through this thread just to say that?

OldKingCole

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

asjohnstone said:

ydoethur said:

Morning all.

Is anyone running a book on which country Hyufd will want to nuke today?

Did we complete the conquest of Spain yesterday ?

They Gibbed at the high cost.

Moor! Moor!

I know you’re trying to ape my brilliance, but that was a bit rocky.

You two are going at it with mucho gusto!

Utrecht all through this thread just to say that?

C

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

RobD

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Good morning, comrade dancer.

3ChordTrick

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/

Big_G_NorthWales

Barnier 'has just' said live on Sky that a deal can be done and Sky confirming greater chance of a deal now than at anytime

Also the Commission has rejected the Finnish PM comments yesterday that there is no time and generally hopes are rising for a deal

Could all be just talk but more positives voices coming out of Brussels this morning

TGOHF2

FF43 said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.

We’re not there (yet) with Johnson. But there are times when it serves to recognise the achievements of people with whom you disagree. He set out in July to leave the EU with a deal, that allows him to strike free trade deals with third countries, and on time.

If he does this (and he still may not) it will be some achievement.

The deal isn't worth having beyond the avoidance of a chaotic exit on the 31st October, an arbitrary do or die date imposed by Johnson. It's less worth having than May's Deal that Johnson rejected.

Not an achievement in my book.

Don’t worry about any deal - as Dom says :

”Also, don’t worry about the so-called ‘permanent’ commitments this historically abysmal Cabinet are trying to make on our behalf. They are not ‘permanent’ and a serious government — one not cowed by officials and their bullshit ‘legal advice’ with which they have herded ministers like sheep — will dispense with these commitments and any domestic law enforcing them.”

ydoethur

3ChordTrick said:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/

Welcome, and thank you. Another very interesting poll.

I have thought for some time that if one party could rally the non-Labour vote behind it, Labour are at risk of a sudden collapse in Wales. Divisions among their opponents however, which the SNP somehow overcame in Scotland, have made that tough.

But it looks as though the Brexit vote might be the key to destroying Labour in Wales. If so, at least one good thing will ave come from it.

TheJezziah

3ChordTrick said:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/

Be nice if we had a company from the other end of the Con-Lab scale to compare to as well, or a polling company that was less of an outlier to look at in addition, better than nothing on Wales though!

Gallowgate

TGOHF2 said:

FF43 said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.

We’re not there (yet) with Johnson. But there are times when it serves to recognise the achievements of people with whom you disagree. He set out in July to leave the EU with a deal, that allows him to strike free trade deals with third countries, and on time.

If he does this (and he still may not) it will be some achievement.

The deal isn't worth having beyond the avoidance of a chaotic exit on the 31st October, an arbitrary do or die date imposed by Johnson. It's less worth having than May's Deal that Johnson rejected.

Not an achievement in my book.

Don’t worry about any deal - as Dom says :

”Also, don’t worry about the so-called ‘permanent’ commitments this historically abysmal Cabinet are trying to make on our behalf. They are not ‘permanent’ and a serious government — one not cowed by officials and their bullshit ‘legal advice’ with which they have herded ministers like sheep — will dispense with these commitments and any domestic law enforcing them.”

What a horrible man.

ydoethur

TGOHF2 said:

FF43 said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.

We’re not there (yet) with Johnson. But there are times when it serves to recognise the achievements of people with whom you disagree. He set out in July to leave the EU with a deal, that allows him to strike free trade deals with third countries, and on time.

If he does this (and he still may not) it will be some achievement.

The deal isn't worth having beyond the avoidance of a chaotic exit on the 31st October, an arbitrary do or die date imposed by Johnson. It's less worth having than May's Deal that Johnson rejected.

Not an achievement in my book.

Don’t worry about any deal - as Dom says :

”Also, don’t worry about the so-called ‘permanent’ commitments this historically abysmal Cabinet are trying to make on our behalf. They are not ‘permanent’ and a serious government — one not cowed by officials and their bullshit ‘legal advice’ with which they have herded ministers like sheep — will dispense with these commitments and any domestic law enforcing them.”

He really doesn’t do self-awareness, does he? The sight of a man the DfE ran rings around blustering about ministers being ‘herded like sheep’ borders on the surreal.

FF43

TGOHF2 said:

FF43 said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.

We’re not there (yet) with Johnson. But there are times when it serves to recognise the achievements of people with whom you disagree. He set out in July to leave the EU with a deal, that allows him to strike free trade deals with third countries, and on time.

If he does this (and he still may not) it will be some achievement.

The deal isn't worth having beyond the avoidance of a chaotic exit on the 31st October, an arbitrary do or die date imposed by Johnson. It's less worth having than May's Deal that Johnson rejected.

Not an achievement in my book.

Don’t worry about any deal - as Dom says :

”Also, don’t worry about the so-called ‘permanent’ commitments this historically abysmal Cabinet are trying to make on our behalf. They are not ‘permanent’ and a serious government — one not cowed by officials and their bullshit ‘legal advice’ with which they have herded ministers like sheep — will dispense with these commitments and any domestic law enforcing them.”

Johnson-Cummings showing just how unserious he is. If a state makes no commitments and makes none it has no treaties, because treaties are all about commitment.

ydoethur

FF43 said:

TGOHF2 said:

FF43 said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.

We’re not there (yet) with Johnson. But there are times when it serves to recognise the achievements of people with whom you disagree. He set out in July to leave the EU with a deal, that allows him to strike free trade deals with third countries, and on time.

If he does this (and he still may not) it will be some achievement.

The deal isn't worth having beyond the avoidance of a chaotic exit on the 31st October, an arbitrary do or die date imposed by Johnson. It's less worth having than May's Deal that Johnson rejected.

Not an achievement in my book.

Don’t worry about any deal - as Dom says :

”Also, don’t worry about the so-called ‘permanent’ commitments this historically abysmal Cabinet are trying to make on our behalf. They are not ‘permanent’ and a serious government — one not cowed by officials and their bullshit ‘legal advice’ with which they have herded ministers like sheep — will dispense with these commitments and any domestic law enforcing them.”

Johnson-Cummings showing just how unserious he is. If a state makes no commitments and makes none it has no treaties, because treaties are all about commitment.

Boris Johnson does not keep promises made to his wives, his employers or his constituents. Why should foreign powers get special treatment?

RochdalePioneers

ydoethur said:

TGOHF2 said:

Don’t worry about any deal - as Dom says :

”Also, don’t worry about the so-called ‘permanent’ commitments this historically abysmal Cabinet are trying to make on our behalf. They are not ‘permanent’ and a serious government — one not cowed by officials and their bullshit ‘legal advice’ with which they have herded ministers like sheep — will dispense with these commitments and any domestic law enforcing them.”

He really doesn’t do self-awareness, does he? The sight of a man the DfE ran rings around blustering about ministers being ‘herded like sheep’ borders on the surreal.

He must be doing something right. We have a government with a majority of -45 who has a 100% vote loss record playing Dom's strategy of deploying HM to read out the Tory manifesto whilst simultaneously marginalising cabinet ministers to such an extent that they have literally no idea what the plan is for Brexit other than being assured it will be brilliant.

For a man playing high stakes poker holding a pair of 3s, he's doing ok...

Big_G_NorthWales

ydoethur said:

3ChordTrick said:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/

Welcome, and thank you. Another very interesting poll.

I have thought for some time that if one party could rally the non-Labour vote behind it, Labour are at risk of a sudden collapse in Wales. Divisions among their opponents however, which the SNP somehow overcame in Scotland, have made that tough.

But it looks as though the Brexit vote might be the key to destroying Labour in Wales. If so, at least one good thing will ave come from it.

This poll explains why Stephen Kinnock and other labour mps will vote for a deal

Conservatives will be very pleased with this poll as labour continue to lose support

ydoethur

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

3ChordTrick said:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/

Welcome, and thank you. Another very interesting poll.

I have thought for some time that if one party could rally the non-Labour vote behind it, Labour are at risk of a sudden collapse in Wales. Divisions among their opponents however, which the SNP somehow overcame in Scotland, have made that tough.

But it looks as though the Brexit vote might be the key to destroying Labour in Wales. If so, at least one good thing will ave come from it.

This poll explains why Stephen Kinnock and other labour mps will vote for a deal

Conservatives will be very pleased with this poll as labour continue to lose support

Actually they gained a couple of points for Westminster, although in relative terms they are still going backwards.

What should worry them is where these votes seem to be being lost. They look like a party increasingly driven back on the Valleys. In the most recent actual election we had - Brecon and Radnor - Ystradgynlais, which is in the western valleys, deserted Labour for the Liberal Democrats. Something very dramatic seems to be changing

Big_G_NorthWales

TheJezziah said:

3ChordTrick said:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/

Be nice if we had a company from the other end of the Con-Lab scale to compare to as well, or a polling company that was less of an outlier to look at in addition, better than nothing on Wales though!

For those of us living in Wales labour have comprehensively failed on health and education and in health our family have numerous examples of failures.

They have had their time and this poll comes as no surprise and gives us a ray of hope that they will be thrown out of the Senedd at the next Assembly elections

Sandpit

Nigelb said:

A cheap and effective drug for treatment of mild to moderate traumatic brain injury:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-49977827

Potentially very good news for sports medicine, where a lot of head injury trauma occurs. There’s an amazing amount of research going on into head injury at the moment, great to see a simple and inexpensive drug prove so effective.

ydoethur

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheJezziah said:

3ChordTrick said:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/

Be nice if we had a company from the other end of the Con-Lab scale to compare to as well, or a polling company that was less of an outlier to look at in addition, better than nothing on Wales though!

For those of us living in Wales labour have comprehensively failed on health and education and in health our family have numerous examples of failures.

They have had their time and this poll comes as no surprise and gives us a ray of hope that they will be thrown out of the Senedd at the next Assembly elections

Although even on this poll the only viable government would be Plaid-Labour.

Big_G_NorthWales

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

3ChordTrick said:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/

Welcome, and thank you. Another very interesting poll.

I have thought for some time that if one party could rally the non-Labour vote behind it, Labour are at risk of a sudden collapse in Wales. Divisions among their opponents however, which the SNP somehow overcame in Scotland, have made that tough.

But it looks as though the Brexit vote might be the key to destroying Labour in Wales. If so, at least one good thing will ave come from it.

This poll explains why Stephen Kinnock and other labour mps will vote for a deal

Conservatives will be very pleased with this poll as labour continue to lose support

Actually they gained a couple of points for Westminster, although in relative terms they are still going backwards.

What should worry them is where these votes seem to be being lost. They look like a party increasingly driven back on the Valleys. In the most recent actual election we had - Brecon and Radnor - Ystradgynlais, which is in the western valleys, deserted Labour for the Liberal Democrats. Something very dramatic seems to be changing

Lets hope so

Stocky

If the government gets a Common`s majority for a deal, do you guys think that this extinguishes the possibility of a successful VONC (at least in the short term)?

MPs that support a deal would not go on to express no confidence in the government surely?

Big_G_NorthWales

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheJezziah said:

3ChordTrick said:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/

Be nice if we had a company from the other end of the Con-Lab scale to compare to as well, or a polling company that was less of an outlier to look at in addition, better than nothing on Wales though!

For those of us living in Wales labour have comprehensively failed on health and education and in health our family have numerous examples of failures.

They have had their time and this poll comes as no surprise and gives us a ray of hope that they will be thrown out of the Senedd at the next Assembly elections

Although even on this poll the only viable government would be Plaid-Labour.

Yes but the trend is firmly away from labour

ydoethur

Stocky said:

If the government gets a Common`s majority for a deal, do you guys think that this extinguishes the possibility of a successful VONC (at least in the short term)?

MPs that support a deal would not go on to express no confidence in the government surely?

On the contrary, it removes the only reason for not having an election - the fear Johnson could win a majority for no deal.

But in that sense it does make a VNC less likely as I suspect Parliament would just vote for an election.

SquareRoot

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheJezziah said:

3ChordTrick said:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/

Be nice if we had a company from the other end of the Con-Lab scale to compare to as well, or a polling company that was less of an outlier to look at in addition, better than nothing on Wales though!

For those of us living in Wales labour have comprehensively failed on health and education and in health our family have numerous examples of failures.

They have had their time and this poll comes as no surprise and gives us a ray of hope that they will be thrown out of the Senedd at the next Assembly elections

Although even on this poll the only viable government would be Plaid-Labour.

Yes but the trend is firmly away from labour

When was the last time the Tories polled higher than Labour in Wales?

Big_G_NorthWales

SquareRoot said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheJezziah said:

3ChordTrick said:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/

Be nice if we had a company from the other end of the Con-Lab scale to compare to as well, or a polling company that was less of an outlier to look at in addition, better than nothing on Wales though!

For those of us living in Wales labour have comprehensively failed on health and education and in health our family have numerous examples of failures.

They have had their time and this poll comes as no surprise and gives us a ray of hope that they will be thrown out of the Senedd at the next Assembly elections

Although even on this poll the only viable government would be Plaid-Labour.

Yes but the trend is firmly away from labour

When was the last time the Tories polled higher than Labour?

I honestly cannot answer that.

We need HYUFD, God bless him, who will know

ydoethur

SquareRoot said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheJezziah said:

3ChordTrick said:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/

Be nice if we had a company from the other end of the Con-Lab scale to compare to as well, or a polling company that was less of an outlier to look at in addition, better than nothing on Wales though!

For those of us living in Wales labour have comprehensively failed on health and education and in health our family have numerous examples of failures.

They have had their time and this poll comes as no surprise and gives us a ray of hope that they will be thrown out of the Senedd at the next Assembly elections

Although even on this poll the only viable government would be Plaid-Labour.

Yes but the trend is firmly away from labour

When was the last time the Tories polled higher than Labour?

Last month.

If you mean ‘in an election,’ I think the answer is 1900. But I don’t have the figures for the popular vote so I’m having to guess a bit. In terms of seats it’s 1900.

Richard_Tyndall

Stocky said:

If the government gets a Common`s majority for a deal, do you guys think that this extinguishes the possibility of a successful VONC (at least in the short term)?

MPs that support a deal would not go on to express no confidence in the government surely?

You would think that would be the case but this bunch of numpties have shown themselves to be so utterly inept that I wouldn't be surprised by any idiocy they might come up with.

Big_G_NorthWales

David Gauke on Sky saying Barnier's comments are encouraging

felix

I'm sure Justin124 will be along soon to tell us Labour will win big because of incumbency, insomnia, incompetence, bla, bla bla......

Big_G_NorthWales

Pound on the way up again

Nigelb

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

asjohnstone said:

ydoethur said:

Morning all.

Is anyone running a book on which country Hyufd will want to nuke today?

Did we complete the conquest of Spain yesterday ?

They Gibbed at the high cost.

Moor! Moor!

I know you’re trying to ape my brilliance, but that was a bit rocky.

You two are going at it with mucho gusto!

Utrecht all through this thread just to say that?

C

Y the single letter pun ?

Stocky

ydoethur says: "But in that sense it does make a VNC less likely as I suspect Parliament would just vote for an election."

Why would parliament vote for an election (2/3 needed) rather than via a VONC? A VONC would be much more embarrassing for the government (and VONC plus GNU would take away the ability to set a GE date from BJ).

But I return to my original point: if, say, Kinnock voted for a deal is he likely to follow this up with a vote expressing no confidence in the government? Seems unlikely to me. Therefore, if deal passes VONC wouldn`t succeed by this logic. Maybe I`m missing something?

nichomar

Sandpit said:

Nigelb said:

A cheap and effective drug for treatment of mild to moderate traumatic brain injury:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-49977827

Potentially very good news for sports medicine, where a lot of head injury trauma occurs. There’s an amazing amount of research going on into head injury at the moment, great to see a simple and inexpensive drug prove so effective.

Whilst it is good news I was disappointed to read the article and find it is only effective in the first three hours and is not a wonder reversal drug.

YBarddCwsc

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheJezziah said:

3ChordTrick said:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/

Be nice if we had a company from the other end of the Con-Lab scale to compare to as well, or a polling company that was less of an outlier to look at in addition, better than nothing on Wales though!

For those of us living in Wales labour have comprehensively failed on health and education and in health our family have numerous examples of failures.

They have had their time and this poll comes as no surprise and gives us a ray of hope that they will be thrown out of the Senedd at the next Assembly elections

Although even on this poll the only viable government would be Plaid-Labour.

It seems as though the author of the poll has little understanding of Plaid Cymru.

We read: "Plaid Cymru are projected to gain Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Cardiff West and Llanelli "

Plaid Cymru have expelled the prospective candidate for Cardiff West (Neil McEvoy), expelled activists in Llanelli over their objections to an imposed candidate, whilst the candidate for Blaenau Gwent who did so well at the last AM elections (Nigel Copner) has resigned from the party over internal disagreements.

I do not expect PC to gain any of those seats in the Assembly elections.

There have also been resignations and acrimony over the choice of candidate for Ynys Mon in Westminster, with another friend of the party leadership being parachuted into the seat.

I expect Plaid Cymru to go backwards at any election, not least because of their hugely ill-advised pact with the 'More Anglo than Nigel Farage' Welsh LibDems.

TGOHF2

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pound on the way up again

Bad news for exports

FF43

ydoethur said:

FF43 said:

TGOHF2 said:

FF43 said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

moonshine said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.

And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.

What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.

We’re not there (yet) with Johnson. But there are times when it serves to recognise the achievements of people with whom you disagree. He set out in July to leave the EU with a deal, that allows him to strike free trade deals with third countries, and on time.

If he does this (and he still may not) it will be some achievement.

The deal isn't worth having beyond the avoidance of a chaotic exit on the 31st October, an arbitrary do or die date imposed by Johnson. It's less worth having than May's Deal that Johnson rejected.

Not an achievement in my book.

Don’t worry about any deal - as Dom says :

”Also, don’t worry about the so-called ‘permanent’ commitments this historically abysmal Cabinet are trying to make on our behalf. They are not ‘permanent’ and a serious government — one not cowed by officials and their bullshit ‘legal advice’ with which they have herded ministers like sheep — will dispense with these commitments and any domestic law enforcing them.”

Johnson-Cummings showing just how unserious he is. If a state makes no commitments and makes none it has no treaties, because treaties are all about commitment.

Boris Johnson does not keep promises made to his wives, his employers or his constituents. Why should foreign powers get special treatment?

In general I'm happy for politicians' private lives to remain private. Johnson's fecklessness spills over from the private to the public domain. He is not a fit person to be prime minister.

eek

RochdalePioneers said:

ydoethur said:

TGOHF2 said:

Don’t worry about any deal - as Dom says :

”Also, don’t worry about the so-called ‘permanent’ commitments this historically abysmal Cabinet are trying to make on our behalf. They are not ‘permanent’ and a serious government — one not cowed by officials and their bullshit ‘legal advice’ with which they have herded ministers like sheep — will dispense with these commitments and any domestic law enforcing them.”

He really doesn’t do self-awareness, does he? The sight of a man the DfE ran rings around blustering about ministers being ‘herded like sheep’ borders on the surreal.

He must be doing something right. We have a government with a majority of -45 who has a 100% vote loss record playing Dom's strategy of deploying HM to read out the Tory manifesto whilst simultaneously marginalising cabinet ministers to such an extent that they have literally no idea what the plan is for Brexit other than being assured it will be brilliant.

For a man playing high stakes poker holding a pair of 3s, he's doing ok...

a pair of 3s - are you sure it's not pikachu and Master Bun the baker's son.

I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. Previously it would have been possible to play it's a people v Parliament election but without a unicorn Brexit plan a lot of people are going to dislike the actual plan and that's going to make Boris's job in the election even harder.

It would be bad enough for Boris with BXP saying you promised we would have left by now, it's going to be far worse when they can add oh and your plan isn't Brexity Unicorny enough.

MarqueeMark

Tory gains in Wales off-setting their losses in Scotland.

The election is about England.

Big_G_NorthWales

German and French foreign ministers confirming a deal is possible as they go into their meeting in Luxembourg

eek

MarqueeMark said:

Tory gains in Wales off-setting their losses in Scotland.

The election is about England.

Tories lose 10-15 seats down south and may win 8-13 up north.

I can't see it working out for them really.

Nigelb

Sandpit said:

Nigelb said:

A cheap and effective drug for treatment of mild to moderate traumatic brain injury:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-49977827

Potentially very good news for sports medicine, where a lot of head injury trauma occurs. There’s an amazing amount of research going on into head injury at the moment, great to see a simple and inexpensive drug prove so effective.

Recent post mortem research indicates that damage from TBI is largely associated with brain bleeds, rather than mechanical damage to axons, which was the alternative theory. This clinical trial finding backs that up, so I would guess it will be introduced fairly rapidly as a concussion treatment.

I think It's already in fairly widespread use in cases of non brain trauma (eg knife wounds).

kle4

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnier 'has just' said live on Sky that a deal can be done and Sky confirming greater chance of a deal now than at anytime

Also the Commission has rejected the Finnish PM comments yesterday that there is no time and generally hopes are rising for a deal

Could all be just talk but more positives voices coming out of Brussels this morning

Of course theres time, if there wasn't theyd have said so aged ago. the issue is whether either side can politically move in time and that can happen very quickly, specific text has probably been drafted for a thousand different options already.

If nothing else it would be good for a deal to be agreed so MPs can be put on the spot to see if they agree/want a referendum and to put the government on the spot about how the hell thry think we can leave without even a technical extension, should it pass.

AlastairMeeks

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheJezziah said:

3ChordTrick said:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/

Be nice if we had a company from the other end of the Con-Lab scale to compare to as well, or a polling company that was less of an outlier to look at in addition, better than nothing on Wales though!

For those of us living in Wales labour have comprehensively failed on health and education and in health our family have numerous examples of failures.

They have had their time and this poll comes as no surprise and gives us a ray of hope that they will be thrown out of the Senedd at the next Assembly elections

Although even on this poll the only viable government would be Plaid-Labour.

It seems as though the author of the poll has little understanding of Plaid Cymru.

We read: "Plaid Cymru are projected to gain Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Cardiff West and Llanelli "

Plaid Cymru have expelled the prospective candidate for Cardiff West (Neil McEvoy), expelled activists in Llanelli over their objections to an imposed candidate, whilst the candidate for Blaenau Gwent who did so well at the last AM elections (Nigel Copner) has resigned from the party over internal disagreements.

I do not expect PC to gain any of those seats in the Assembly elections.

There have also been resignations and acrimony over the choice of candidate for Ynys Mon in Westminster, with another friend of the party leadership being parachuted into the seat.

I expect Plaid Cymru to go backwards at any election, not least because of their hugely ill-advised pact with the 'More Anglo than Nigel Farage' Welsh LibDems.

He specifically says:

"In these unprecedented political times, and with public support spread across several parties, all attempts to use opinion poll numbers to project outcome in term of parliamentary seats should be viewed with very considerable caution."

and

"If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election (though with similar caution about such projections as for Westminster)"

Stocky

eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "

Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.

AndyJS

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183997695066886145

Big_G_NorthWales

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnier 'has just' said live on Sky that a deal can be done and Sky confirming greater chance of a deal now than at anytime

Also the Commission has rejected the Finnish PM comments yesterday that there is no time and generally hopes are rising for a deal

Could all be just talk but more positives voices coming out of Brussels this morning

Of course theres time, if there wasn't theyd have said so aged ago. the issue is whether either side can politically move in time and that can happen very quickly, specific text has probably been drafted for a thousand different options already.

If nothing else it would be good for a deal to be agreed so MPs can be put on the spot to see if they agree/want a referendum and to put the government on the spot about how the hell thry think we can leave without even a technical extension, should it pass.

To be fair you were making that point on time yesterday when so many were quoting the Finnish PM as saying there is not enough time

kle4

Stocky said:

eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "

Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.

It's a smart play on their part.

Big_G_NorthWales

Stocky said:

eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "

Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.

Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps may

kamski

SquareRoot said:

eristdoof said:

ReggieCide said:

I am a Muslim woman and don't have a driving licence nor a passport, would I be disenfranchised as a consequence. Is there wishful thinking at play here?

I don't believe you.

nor do I and even if it were true get a passport its not rocket science

So effectively charging people 75 quid to vote isn't going to lower turnout among any demographics?

Amazing what I learn here on PB.

I'm agnostic on voter ID in principle , but it has to be done right, and I'm unconvinced of the need for it.

I would put more effort into making sure everyone is registered to vote, and making it easier to vote.

It's also important to avoid making changes that look like they are designed to help one party or hurt another if at all possible

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kle4, not necessarily.

Neither said wants the blame for a deal failing to happen, and would be much happier blaming the intransigence of the other side.

Stocky

It may be a smart play on Labour`s party, but it is shocking that they would oppose a deal which, if they had been party to creating it, they would approve with gusto.

YBarddCwsc

AlastairMeeks said:

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheJezziah said:

3ChordTrick said:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/

Be nice if we had a company from the other end of the Con-Lab scale to compare to as well, or a polling company that was less of an outlier to look at in addition, better than nothing on Wales though!

For those of us living in Wales labour have comprehensively failed on health and education and in health our family have numerous examples of failures.

They have had their time and this poll comes as no surprise and gives us a ray of hope that they will be thrown out of the Senedd at the next Assembly elections

Although even on this poll the only viable government would be Plaid-Labour.

It seems as though the author of the poll has little understanding of Plaid Cymru.

We read: "Plaid Cymru are projected to gain Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Cardiff West and Llanelli "

Plaid Cymru have expelled the prospective candidate for Cardiff West (Neil McEvoy), expelled activists in Llanelli over their objections to an imposed candidate, whilst the candidate for Blaenau Gwent who did so well at the last AM elections (Nigel Copner) has resigned from the party over internal disagreements.

I do not expect PC to gain any of those seats in the Assembly elections.

There have also been resignations and acrimony over the choice of candidate for Ynys Mon in Westminster, with another friend of the party leadership being parachuted into the seat.

I expect Plaid Cymru to go backwards at any election, not least because of their hugely ill-advised pact with the 'More Anglo than Nigel Farage' Welsh LibDems.

He specifically says:

"In these unprecedented political times, and with public support spread across several parties, all attempts to use opinion poll numbers to project outcome in term of parliamentary seats should be viewed with very considerable caution."

and

"If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election (though with similar caution about such projections as for Westminster)"

I am pointing out explicitly that there are reasons specific to 3 of the target seats that suggest Plaid Cymru will not take them.

If you are expelling activists in target seats (Llanelli), if your candidate in Cardiff West has been expelled (McEvoy), if your candidate in Blaenau Gwent has resigned (Copner) ... that tells you something about the state of the party in those seats.

That is completely different to the absolutely bleeding obvious point that you are making.

kle4

Big_G_NorthWales said:

David Gauke on Sky saying Barnier's comments are encouraging

Keep an eye on Baker and the DUP. No good getting encouraging movement from one side if the others move away.

Big_G_NorthWales

AlastairMeeks said:

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheJezziah said:

3ChordTrick said:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/

Be nice if we had a company from the other end of the Con-Lab scale to compare to as well, or a polling company that was less of an outlier to look at in addition, better than nothing on Wales though!

For those of us living in Wales labour have comprehensively failed on health and education and in health our family have numerous examples of failures.

They have had their time and this poll comes as no surprise and gives us a ray of hope that they will be thrown out of the Senedd at the next Assembly elections

Although even on this poll the only viable government would be Plaid-Labour.

It seems as though the author of the poll has little understanding of Plaid Cymru.

We read: "Plaid Cymru are projected to gain Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Cardiff West and Llanelli "

Plaid Cymru have expelled the prospective candidate for Cardiff West (Neil McEvoy), expelled activists in Llanelli over their objections to an imposed candidate, whilst the candidate for Blaenau Gwent who did so well at the last AM elections (Nigel Copner) has resigned from the party over internal disagreements.

I do not expect PC to gain any of those seats in the Assembly elections.

There have also been resignations and acrimony over the choice of candidate for Ynys Mon in Westminster, with another friend of the party leadership being parachuted into the seat.

I expect Plaid Cymru to go backwards at any election, not least because of their hugely ill-advised pact with the 'More Anglo than Nigel Farage' Welsh LibDems.

He specifically says:

"In these unprecedented political times, and with public support spread across several parties, all attempts to use opinion poll numbers to project outcome in term of parliamentary seats should be viewed with very considerable caution."

and

"If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election (though with similar caution about such projections as for Westminster)"

I agree Alastair but there has been a trend moving away from labour for some time as they fail in so many areas and in particular health and education.

MarqueeMark

kle4 said:

Stocky said:

eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "

Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.

It's a smart play on their part.

It really isn't. Once there is a deal, the great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so.