He [Pete Buttigieg]’s certainly the strongest contender under the age of 70.
This is a pretty damning indictment of the quality of the Democratic field that their best candidate who is not of an age that would normally be well into retirement, is no more than the mayor of a town in Indiana.
I think its rather good. You could have Chelsea Clinton and Hunter Biden - they've got great CVs.
I've blown my cash on this, but for precisely these sort of reasons I'd backed Gabbard.
I'd quite like to know how to pronounce Buttigieg's name. We may need to know.
The Liberals' average poll rating has slipped below 30% in most recent polls. They got 39.4% last time. It's going to be difficult for Trudeau to stay in office unless the surveys are completely wrong.
On current polling the Liberals still lead in Ontario and Quebec, both marginal ridings rich, even if the Conservatives lead in the national popular vote thanks to a big lead in Alberta. So Liberals win most seats but Conservatives win most votes looks possible.
A coincidence that getting rid of FPTP was abandoned once Trudeau got in to office I am sure, but convenient.
Technically they had enough votes to replace it with AV, which would have really helped them because the smaller parties in Ontario prefer Liberals to Conservatives by a distance. But it would have been, clearly, a fix.
From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.
Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
Since the Tory Party seems to be writing off the moderates anyway.... that is hardly likely to be a disincentive.
How did your day go? The weather was nice enough in Belfast.
Well fine but thus ends their political career and they can be replaced by pro Brexit Tory candidates.
Yes was good weather, spent some time clambering around the rocks at Giant's Causeway, then went to the whisky distillery in Bushmills, then had a look at Dunluce Castle, then headed to Portrush followed by coffee and cake in Portstewart and finished off at the memorial in Ballykelly church which was poignant and well done.
No Carrick-a-Rede bridge then?
What is tomorrow's iternary? Antrim Coast Road? If so, stop in Carnlough.
Sadly was in the wrong direction.
Tomorrow not doing too much as heading back via Belfast ferry Friday morning, mainly pottering around Enniskillen and going to some museums and packing.
Will have to come again sometime and do a few more things like those you suggest
Where are you staying tonight?
Northern Ireland is seriously underrated as a tourist destination.
Rural Fermanagah, near Enniskillen.
Yes it is very beautiful, though the Causeway was pretty busy with tourists even today
Possible yes votes from outside the tory/dup/ex Tory axis Kate Hoey Kelvin Hopkins Frank Field Ian Austin Ivan Lewis Stephen Lloyd Norman Lamb Charlie Elphicke John Woodcock Sarah Champion
Possible abstentions based on past voting Stringer, Skinner, Flint
The Liberals' average poll rating has slipped below 30% in most recent polls. They got 39.4% last time. It's going to be difficult for Trudeau to stay in office unless the surveys are completely wrong.
On current polling the Liberals still lead in Ontario and Quebec, both marginal ridings rich, even if the Conservatives lead in the national popular vote thanks to a big lead in Alberta. So Liberals win most seats but Conservatives win most votes looks possible.
A coincidence that getting rid of FPTP was abandoned once Trudeau got in to office I am sure, but convenient.
Not impossible the NDP could demand PR in any coalition deal
Imagine the rage of the public if MPs vote down this deal ?
Very brave of MPs to consider it.
Rage of which public? Yes, people are sick to death of all this and so on, but million still want to remain, which requires a deal not pass.
They want your to believe that revoke will biring riots to the streets, it will get a few right wing nutters out on the streets but beyond that nothing.
The PB ‘mood’ always assures that a deal will pass, so far it’s been wrong every single time. I’ll believe it when I see it.
I refer you to my thread header last week. People are underestimating the stubbornness of the Spartans, assuming the DUP can be bought and counting all votes for Theresa May as read for Boris Johnson. But Theresa May secured loyalty from some. Who is going to trust Boris Johnson given his track record, or reward his duplicity?
This is always the problem gain MPs on one side lose them on the other .
Those Labour MPs who want to vote for a deal need a ladder and Bozos deal kicks it away .
Any Labour MP voting for the deal without a few crumbs to justify it are toast and will be deselected. At this rate Bozo will be lucky to get at best 10 Labour MPs and that’s being generous.
A number of Tory MPs finally stood up to demonstrate they could only be pushed so far on Brexit, and at least several of them have ended their effective careers by doing so. Its not an easy price, but at some point, even if not now, if those MPs do think we should Brexit they will need to take action that will end their effective careers.
From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.
Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
Since the Tory Party seems to be writing off the moderates anyway.... that is hardly likely to be a disincentive.
How did your day go? The weather was nice enough in Belfast.
Well fine but thus ends their political career and they can be replaced by pro Brexit Tory candidates.
Yes was good weather, spent some time clambering around the rocks at Giant's Causeway, then went to the whisky distillery in Bushmills, then had a look at Dunluce Castle, then headed to Portrush followed by coffee and cake in Portstewart and finished off at the memorial in Ballykelly church which was poignant and well done.
No Carrick-a-Rede bridge then?
What is tomorrow's iternary? Antrim Coast Road? If so, stop in Carnlough.
Sadly was in the wrong direction.
Tomorrow not doing too much as heading back via Belfast ferry Friday morning, mainly pottering around Enniskillen and going to some museums and packing.
Will have to come again sometime and do a few more things like those you suggest
Where are you staying tonight?
Northern Ireland is seriously underrated as a tourist destination.
Rural Fermanagah, near Enniskillen
Another hidden gem of an area. Rural Northern Ireland has so much to offer and so few people see it.
I am really confused. Why would the courts stop an agreement being laid before the Commons? I can see no grounds for that.
I think his argument is HMG can't ' conclude ' an agreement that is currently illegal under statute law. And if the agreement isn't ' concluded ' by HMG it doesn't meet the test for a MV.
I've absolutely no idea of the legal strength of that argument and of course it's hypothetical. No one has seen the agreement text or even if Super Saturday will be a MV. However that appears to be his base argument. If he won they'd need primary legislation to repeal the conflicting law before ' concluding ' the agreement. So it's a delaying tactic.
From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.
Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
Since the Tory Party seems to be writing off the moderates anyway.... that is hardly likely to be a disincentive.
How did your day go? The weather was nice enough in Belfast.
Well fine but thus ends their political career and they can be replaced by pro Brexit Tory candidates.
Yes was good weather, spent some time clambering around the rocks at Giant's Causeway, then went to the whisky distillery in Bushmills, then had a look at Dunluce Castle, then headed to Portrush followed by coffee and cake in Portstewart and finished off at the memorial in Ballykelly church which was poignant and well done.
No Carrick-a-Rede bridge then?
What is tomorrow's iternary? Antrim Coast Road? If so, stop in Carnlough.
Sadly was in the wrong direction.
Tomorrow not doing too much as heading back via Belfast ferry Friday morning, mainly pottering around Enniskillen and going to some museums and packing.
Will have to come again sometime and do a few more things like those you suggest
I will give the Friday morning Stena as wave as it goes past
The weather is meant to be nice on Friday so you will have an easy trip back.
Possible yes votes from outside the tory/dup/ex Tory axis Kate Hoey Kelvin Hopkins Frank Field Ian Austin Ivan Lewis Stephen Lloyd Norman Lamb Charlie Elphicke John Woodcock Sarah Champion
Possible abstentions based on past voting Stringer, Skinner, Flint
Mann and O'Mara will be abstentions not present
So if all current Con+DUP MPs (Paterson/Francois etc?) vote for, it's up to 297. Assume as Bebb said, 6-8 of the 21 vote against (some possible abstentions in there?), takes us to 310-12.
Then if no O'Mara/Mann, it needs 7-9 from the above - plus Hermon, has she said anything yet?
I am really confused. Why would the courts stop an agreement being laid before the Commons? I can see no grounds for that.
I think his argument is HMG can't ' conclude ' an agreement that is currently illegal under statute law. And if the agreement isn't ' concluded ' by HMG it doesn't meet the test for a MV.
I've absolutely no idea of the legal strength of that argument and of course it's hypothetical. No one has seen the agreement text or even if Super Saturday will be a MV. However that appears to be his base argument. If he won they'd need primary legislation to repeal the conflicting law before ' concluding ' the agreement. So it's a delaying tactic.
A delaying tactic might be all that is needed. Boris does not have much time...
Imagine the rage of the public if MPs vote down this deal ?
Very brave of MPs to consider it.
The public: what deal? They haven’t got a clue what is going on as no one else does, anyone with two ounces of intelligence would want to see what the deal was and then make an informed judgment, you’re not suggesting people form their opinions without considered thought based on detailed analysis of the available information.
Possible yes votes from outside the tory/dup/ex Tory axis Kate Hoey Kelvin Hopkins Frank Field Ian Austin Ivan Lewis Stephen Lloyd Norman Lamb Charlie Elphicke John Woodcock Sarah Champion
Possible abstentions based on past voting Stringer, Skinner, Flint
Mann and O'Mara will be abstentions not present
Flint is the only Labour MP to back MV2 and MV3 who was not on board from the beginning, would she really vote down this fresh deal?
1 MP voted yes at MV1 and MV2, but abstained on MV3, I wonder what was behind that.
This is always the problem gain MPs on one side lose them on the other .
Those Labour MPs who want to vote for a deal need a ladder and Bozos deal kicks it away .
Any Labour MP voting for the deal without a few crumbs to justify it are toast and will be deselected. At this rate Bozo will be lucky to get at best 10 Labour MPs and that’s being generous.
A number of Tory MPs finally stood up to demonstrate they could only be pushed so far on Brexit, and at least several of them have ended their effective careers by doing so. Its not an easy price, but at some point, even if not now, if those MPs do think we should Brexit they will need to take action that will end their effective careers.
The right wing press have been a disgrace to attack MPs who refused to act as lobby fodder.
Those MPs who were told they’d lose the whip and still voted to stop no deal deserve credit.
From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.
Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
Since the Tory Party seems to be writing off the moderates anyway.... that is hardly likely to be a disincentive.
How did your day go? The weather was nice enough in Belfast.
Well fine but thus ends their political career and they can be replaced by pro Brexit Tory candidates.
Yes was good weather, spent some time clambering around the rocks at Giant's Causeway, then went to the whisky distillery in Bushmills, then had a look at Dunluce Castle, then headed to Portrush followed by coffee and cake in Portstewart and finished off at the memorial in Ballykelly church which was poignant and well done.
No Carrick-a-Rede bridge then?
What is tomorrow's iternary? Antrim Coast Road? If so, stop in Carnlough.
Sadly was in the wrong direction.
Tomorrow not doing too much as heading back via Belfast ferry Friday morning, mainly pottering around Enniskillen and going to some museums and packing.
Will have to come again sometime and do a few more things like those you suggest
Where are you staying tonight?
Northern Ireland is seriously underrated as a tourist destination.
Rural Fermanagah, near Enniskillen
Another hidden gem of an area. Rural Northern Ireland has so much to offer and so few people see it.
I wonder to what extent the public are waking up to the fact that *every single one* of these endless 'Get Your Flu Jab' communications shows flu making life far more difficult and complicated whilst *not a single one* shows flu making life easier or better.
From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.
Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
Since the Tory Party seems to be writing off the moderates anyway.... that is hardly likely to be a disincentive.
How did your day go? The weather was nice enough in Belfast.
Well fine but thus ends their political career and they can be replaced by pro Brexit Tory candidates.
Yes was good weather, spent some time clambering around the rocks at Giant's Causeway, then went to the whisky distillery in Bushmills, then had a look at Dunluce Castle, then headed to Portrush followed by coffee and cake in Portstewart and finished off at the memorial in Ballykelly church which was poignant and well done.
No Carrick-a-Rede bridge then?
What is tomorrow's iternary? Antrim Coast Road? If so, stop in Carnlough.
Sadly was in the wrong direction.
Tomorrow not doing too much as heading back via Belfast ferry Friday morning, mainly pottering around Enniskillen and going to some museums and packing.
Will have to come again sometime and do a few more things like those you suggest
Where are you staying tonight?
Northern Ireland is seriously underrated as a tourist destination.
Rural Fermanagah, near Enniskillen
Another hidden gem of an area. Rural Northern Ireland has so much to offer and so few people see it.
Yes if you are in the right part can be very peaceful with few crowds
From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.
Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
Since the Tory Party seems to be writing off the moderates anyway.... that is hardly likely to be a disincentive.
How did your day go? The weather was nice enough in Belfast.
Well fine but thus ends their political career and they can be replaced by pro Brexit Tory candidates.
Yes was good weather, spent some time clambering around the rocks at Giant's Causeway, then went to the whisky distillery in Bushmills, then had a look at Dunluce Castle, then headed to Portrush followed by coffee and cake in Portstewart and finished off at the memorial in Ballykelly church which was poignant and well done.
No Carrick-a-Rede bridge then?
What is tomorrow's iternary? Antrim Coast Road? If so, stop in Carnlough.
Sadly was in the wrong direction.
Tomorrow not doing too much as heading back via Belfast ferry Friday morning, mainly pottering around Enniskillen and going to some museums and packing.
Will have to come again sometime and do a few more things like those you suggest
Where are you staying tonight?
Northern Ireland is seriously underrated as a tourist destination.
Rural Fermanagah, near Enniskillen
Another hidden gem of an area. Rural Northern Ireland has so much to offer and so few people see it.
Why would you risk it. I certainly would not..
Your biggest risk by a long chalk is cholesterol poisoning.
Possible yes votes from outside the tory/dup/ex Tory axis Kate Hoey Kelvin Hopkins Frank Field Ian Austin Ivan Lewis Stephen Lloyd Norman Lamb Charlie Elphicke John Woodcock Sarah Champion
Possible abstentions based on past voting Stringer, Skinner, Flint
Mann and O'Mara will be abstentions not present
So if all current Con+DUP MPs (Paterson/Francois etc?) vote for, it's up to 297. Assume as Bebb said, 6-8 of the 21 vote against (some possible abstentions in there?), take the midpoint of 14, takes us to 311.
Then if no O'Mara/Mann, it needs 8 from the above - plus Hermon, has she said anything yet?
Of them Hoey, Field, Elphicke, Champion, Lloyd and Austin are definite yes I think, woodcock very likely to vote yes, Lamb maybe or maybe abstain, Lewis would prefer a referendum but might vote yes The 3 abstainers I think will abstain again and I forgot Kevin Barron, he voted for May's deal so is a possible.
Hermon will vote against I think, shes waspish on the idea
I wonder if the Brexit advertising has boosted Government popularity? I say this as any Government advertising is thought to favour the Government. To me, it just reminds me that they will spend money on a stupid policy like that, which will make life harder and leave us relatively poorer compared to Germany and France.
From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.
Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
Since the Tory Party seems to be writing off the moderates anyway.... that is hardly likely to be a disincentive.
How did your day go? The weather was nice enough in Belfast.
Well fine but thus ends their political career and they can be replaced by pro Brexit Tory candidates.
Yes was good weather, spent some time clambering around the rocks at Giant's Causeway, then went to the whisky distillery in Bushmills, then had a look at Dunluce Castle, then headed to Portrush followed by coffee and cake in Portstewart and finished off at the memorial in Ballykelly church which was poignant and well done.
No Carrick-a-Rede bridge then?
What is tomorrow's iternary? Antrim Coast Road? If so, stop in Carnlough.
Sadly was in the wrong direction.
Tomorrow not doing too much as heading back via Belfast ferry Friday morning, mainly pottering around Enniskillen and going to some museums and packing.
Will have to come again sometime and do a few more things like those you suggest
I will give the Friday morning Stena as wave as it goes past
The weather is meant to be nice on Friday so you will have an easy trip back.
Thank you though will still avoid a big breakfast on Friday morning just in case
I wonder to what extent the public are waking up to the fact that *every single one* of these endless 'Get Your Flu Jab' communications shows flu making life far more difficult and complicated whilst *not a single one* shows flu making life easier or better.
Why do you compare leaving the EU with having a potentially fatal disease ?
I wonder to what extent the public are waking up to the fact that *every single one* of these endless 'Get Your Flu Jab' communications shows flu making life far more difficult and complicated whilst *not a single one* shows flu making life easier or better.
Possible yes votes from outside the tory/dup/ex Tory axis Kate Hoey Kelvin Hopkins Frank Field Ian Austin Ivan Lewis Stephen Lloyd Norman Lamb Charlie Elphicke John Woodcock Sarah Champion
Possible abstentions based on past voting Stringer, Skinner, Flint
Mann and O'Mara will be abstentions not present
So if all current Con+DUP MPs (Paterson/Francois etc?) vote for, it's up to 297. Assume as Bebb said, 6-8 of the 21 vote against (some possible abstentions in there?), take the midpoint of 14, takes us to 311.
Then if no O'Mara/Mann, it needs 8 from the above - plus Hermon, has she said anything yet?
Of them Hoey, Field, Elphicke, Champion, Lloyd and Austin are definite yes I think, woodcock very likely to vote yes, Lamb maybe or maybe abstain, Lewis would prefer a referendum but might vote yes The 3 abstainers I think will abstain again and I forgot Kevin Barron, he voted for May's deal so is a possible.
Hermon will vote against I think, shes waspish on the idea
Could come down to the Speaker. Pretty sure the convention would anticipate a No vote in that situation.
Live pictures from the centre of Barcelona with cars on fire
Jailing the separatists was plain stupid
There are a lot of pensioners on the streets in Madrid complaining about their pensions but they won’t burn cars or get headlines.
On the subject pf pensioners I see we will get a 3.9% rise next April thanks to labour preventing the abolishion of the triple lock
My wife and I are very grateful but it was just playing politics and an absurd thing to do
TM stopping the triple lock and her policy on dementia tax were spot on, but of course she was a terrible salesperson hence the dementia tax failure
Meanwhile some on benefits have not had an increase since 2015...
Do you agree with me then ?
Yes, I agree with you. I was just saying that it is unjust. Government spending seems to have become very uneven of late. It is storing up big trouble further down the line...
This is always the problem gain MPs on one side lose them on the other .
Those Labour MPs who want to vote for a deal need a ladder and Bozos deal kicks it away .
Any Labour MP voting for the deal without a few crumbs to justify it are toast and will be deselected. At this rate Bozo will be lucky to get at best 10 Labour MPs and that’s being generous.
A number of Tory MPs finally stood up to demonstrate they could only be pushed so far on Brexit, and at least several of them have ended their effective careers by doing so. Its not an easy price, but at some point, even if not now, if those MPs do think we should Brexit they will need to take action that will end their effective careers.
What about Remainer Labour MPs representing Leave seats who are not standing again? For example Geoffrey Robinson or Ian Lucas. They can ignore Corbyn's whip and vote fearlessly according to their conscience. But how? And what about Labour MPs who anticipate imminent deselection, regardless of how they vote this week?
Possible yes votes from outside the tory/dup/ex Tory axis Kate Hoey Kelvin Hopkins Frank Field Ian Austin Ivan Lewis Stephen Lloyd Norman Lamb Charlie Elphicke John Woodcock Sarah Champion
Possible abstentions based on past voting Stringer, Skinner, Flint
Mann and O'Mara will be abstentions not present
So if all current Con+DUP MPs (Paterson/Francois etc?) vote for, it's up to 297. Assume as Bebb said, 6-8 of the 21 vote against (some possible abstentions in there?), take the midpoint of 14, takes us to 311.
Then if no O'Mara/Mann, it needs 8 from the above - plus Hermon, has she said anything yet?
Of them Hoey, Field, Elphicke, Champion, Lloyd and Austin are definite yes I think, woodcock very likely to vote yes, Lamb maybe or maybe abstain, Lewis would prefer a referendum but might vote yes The 3 abstainers I think will abstain again and I forgot Kevin Barron, he voted for May's deal so is a possible.
Hermon will vote against I think, shes waspish on the idea
Could come down to the Speaker. Pretty sure the convention would anticipate a No vote in that situation.
Abstentions will be critical. Will labour waverers who fear losing the whip for voting yes abstain instead and see it over the line? And what of the retiring labour MPs who favour a deal, there is nothing to threaten them with. Then the ex Tories, vote against or abstain?
Imagine the rage of the public if MPs vote down this deal ?
Very brave of MPs to consider it.
The public: what deal? They haven’t got a clue what is going on as no one else does, anyone with two ounces of intelligence would want to see what the deal was and then make an informed judgment, you’re not suggesting people form their opinions without considered thought based on detailed analysis of the available information.
This is always the problem gain MPs on one side lose them on the other .
Those Labour MPs who want to vote for a deal need a ladder and Bozos deal kicks it away .
Any Labour MP voting for the deal without a few crumbs to justify it are toast and will be deselected. At this rate Bozo will be lucky to get at best 10 Labour MPs and that’s being generous.
A number of Tory MPs finally stood up to demonstrate they could only be pushed so far on Brexit, and at least several of them have ended their effective careers by doing so. Its not an easy price, but at some point, even if not now, if those MPs do think we should Brexit they will need to take action that will end their effective careers.
What about Remainer Labour MPs representing Leave seats who are not standing again? For example Geoffrey Robinson or Ian Lucas. They can ignore Corbyn's whip and vote fearlessly according to their conscience. But how? And what about Labour MPs who anticipate imminent deselection, regardless of how they vote this week?
They should feel freer to vote as they like of course (though all should vote as they like on this issue, however difficult), but as you suggest how that makes them vote is crucial, and some of them will be no keener on a deal than they were previously.
I wonder to what extent the public are waking up to the fact that *every single one* of these endless 'Get Your Flu Jab' communications shows flu making life far more difficult and complicated whilst *not a single one* shows flu making life easier or better.
Errr, you what?
My purpose seems to be to flush out the terminally dim tonght.
I wonder to what extent the public are waking up to the fact that *every single one* of these endless 'Get Your Flu Jab' communications shows flu making life far more difficult and complicated whilst *not a single one* shows flu making life easier or better.
From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.
Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
Since the Tory Party seems to be writing off the moderates anyway.... that is hardly likely to be a disincentive.
How did your day go? The weather was nice enough in Belfast.
Well fine but thus ends their political career and they can be replaced by pro Brexit Tory candidates.
Yes was good weather, spent some time clambering around the rocks at Giant's Causeway, then went to the whisky distillery in Bushmills, then had a look at Dunluce Castle, then headed to Portrush followed by coffee and cake in Portstewart and finished off at the memorial in Ballykelly church which was poignant and well done.
No Carrick-a-Rede bridge then?
What is tomorrow's iternary? Antrim Coast Road? If so, stop in Carnlough.
Sadly was in the wrong direction.
Tomorrow not doing too much as heading back via Belfast ferry Friday morning, mainly pottering around Enniskillen and going to some museums and packing.
Will have to come again sometime and do a few more things like those you suggest
Where are you staying tonight?
Northern Ireland is seriously underrated as a tourist destination.
Rural Fermanagah, near Enniskillen
Another hidden gem of an area. Rural Northern Ireland has so much to offer and so few people see it.
Why would you risk it. I certainly would not..
Your biggest risk by a long chalk is cholesterol poisoning.
not if you use benecol butter and get your cholesterol tested regularly....
Possible yes votes from outside the tory/dup/ex Tory axis Kate Hoey Kelvin Hopkins Frank Field Ian Austin Ivan Lewis Stephen Lloyd Norman Lamb Charlie Elphicke John Woodcock Sarah Champion
Possible abstentions based on past voting Stringer, Skinner, Flint
Mann and O'Mara will be abstentions not present
So if all current Con+DUP MPs (Paterson/Francois etc?) vote for, it's up to 297. Assume as Bebb said, 6-8 of the 21 vote against (some possible abstentions in there?), take the midpoint of 14, takes us to 311.
Then if no O'Mara/Mann, it needs 8 from the above - plus Hermon, has she said anything yet?
Of them Hoey, Field, Elphicke, Champion, Lloyd and Austin are definite yes I think, woodcock very likely to vote yes, Lamb maybe or maybe abstain, Lewis would prefer a referendum but might vote yes The 3 abstainers I think will abstain again and I forgot Kevin Barron, he voted for May's deal so is a possible.
Hermon will vote against I think, shes waspish on the idea
Could come down to the Speaker. Pretty sure the convention would anticipate a No vote in that situation.
I always thought that, from my time as mayor, if it came to a casting vote one should vote for the status quo regardless of your first vote which you were always free to exercise. So the status quo is to remain in the EU so the speaker is obliged to not change our current status.
From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.
Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
Why should they suffer that fate given that Johnson and the ERG group MPs were not treated like that when they failed to support Theresa May's Deal?
As Johnson and the ERG MPs still backed Brexit with No Deal over further extension, EUref2 or revoke.
While you also support expelling Labour MPs who vote for any Boris Brexit Deal, I assume you do not back expelling Labour MPs committed to back Remain in all circumstances or revoke against official Labour policy?
But many of the ERG MPs voted against Mays Deal three times - indeed Johnson did so twice. Why should others be expelled for failing to do so on a single occasion?If May's Deal returned to the House, they would support it again.
Because the decision to grant the whip or not is at the discretion of the party leader
From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.
Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
Since the Tory Party seems to be writing off the moderates anyway.... that is hardly likely to be a disincentive.
How did your day go? The weather was nice enough in Belfast.
Well fine but thus ends their political career and they can be replaced by pro Brexit Tory candidates.
Yes was good weather, spent some time clambering around the rocks at Giant's Causeway, then went to the whisky distillery in Bushmills, then had a look at Dunluce Castle, then headed to Portrush followed by coffee and cake in Portstewart and finished off at the memorial in Ballykelly church which was poignant and well done.
No Carrick-a-Rede bridge then?
What is tomorrow's iternary? Antrim Coast Road? If so, stop in Carnlough.
Sadly was in the wrong direction.
Tomorrow not doing too much as heading back via Belfast ferry Friday morning, mainly pottering around Enniskillen and going to some museums and packing.
Will have to come again sometime and do a few more things like those you suggest
I will give the Friday morning Stena as wave as it goes past
The weather is meant to be nice on Friday so you will have an easy trip back.
Thank you though will still avoid a big breakfast on Friday morning just in case
You landlubber!!! A bouncy sea makes the journey interesting and cuts the queues in the reataurant
Possible yes votes from outside the tory/dup/ex Tory axis Kate Hoey Kelvin Hopkins Frank Field Ian Austin Ivan Lewis Stephen Lloyd Norman Lamb Charlie Elphicke John Woodcock Sarah Champion
Possible abstentions based on past voting Stringer, Skinner, Flint
Mann and O'Mara will be abstentions not present
So if all current Con+DUP MPs (Paterson/Francois etc?) vote for, it's up to 297. Assume as Bebb said, 6-8 of the 21 vote against (some possible abstentions in there?), take the midpoint of 14, takes us to 311.
Then if no O'Mara/Mann, it needs 8 from the above - plus Hermon, has she said anything yet?
Of them Hoey, Field, Elphicke, Champion, Lloyd and Austin are definite yes I think, woodcock very likely to vote yes, Lamb maybe or maybe abstain, Lewis would prefer a referendum but might vote yes The 3 abstainers I think will abstain again and I forgot Kevin Barron, he voted for May's deal so is a possible.
Hermon will vote against I think, shes waspish on the idea
Could come down to the Speaker. Pretty sure the convention would anticipate a No vote in that situation.
I always thought that, from my time as mayor, if it came to a casting vote one should vote for the status quo regardless of your first vote which you were always free to exercise. So the status quo is to remain in the EU so the speaker is obliged to not change our current status.
https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/business/divisions/ Tied votes If the vote is tied - which is very unusual - in the Commons the Speaker has the casting vote. The Speaker casts his vote according to what was done in similar circumstances in the past. Where possible the issue should remain open for further discussion and no final decision should be made by a casting vote.
Imagine the rage of the public if MPs vote down this deal ?
Very brave of MPs to consider it.
The public: what deal? They haven’t got a clue what is going on as no one else does, anyone with two ounces of intelligence would want to see what the deal was and then make an informed judgment, you’re not suggesting people form their opinions without considered thought based on detailed analysis of the available information.
At the ballot box - remainers can’t hide forever.
I’ll take that as yes that people form their opinions without due thought then.
Live pictures from the centre of Barcelona with cars on fire
Jailing the separatists was plain stupid
There are a lot of pensioners on the streets in Madrid complaining about their pensions but they won’t burn cars or get headlines.
On the subject pf pensioners I see we will get a 3.9% rise next April thanks to labour preventing the abolishion of the triple lock
My wife and I are very grateful but it was just playing politics and an absurd thing to do
TM stopping the triple lock and her policy on dementia tax were spot on, but of course she was a terrible salesperson hence the dementia tax failure
Meanwhile some on benefits have not had an increase since 2015...
Do you agree with me then ?
Yes, I agree with you. I was just saying that it is unjust. Government spending seems to have become very uneven of late. It is storing up big trouble further down the line...
Thank you and a fine example of Corbyn's ill thought out policies
Possible yes votes from outside the tory/dup/ex Tory axis Kate Hoey Kelvin Hopkins Frank Field Ian Austin Ivan Lewis Stephen Lloyd Norman Lamb Charlie Elphicke John Woodcock Sarah Champion
Possible abstentions based on past voting Stringer, Skinner, Flint
Mann and O'Mara will be abstentions not present
So if all current Con+DUP MPs (Paterson/Francois etc?) vote for, it's up to 297. Assume as Bebb said, 6-8 of the 21 vote against (some possible abstentions in there?), take the midpoint of 14, takes us to 311.
Then if no O'Mara/Mann, it needs 8 from the above - plus Hermon, has she said anything yet?
Of them Hoey, Field, Elphicke, Champion, Lloyd and Austin are definite yes I think, woodcock very likely to vote yes, Lamb maybe or maybe abstain, Lewis would prefer a referendum but might vote yes The 3 abstainers I think will abstain again and I forgot Kevin Barron, he voted for May's deal so is a possible.
Hermon will vote against I think, shes waspish on the idea
Could come down to the Speaker. Pretty sure the convention would anticipate a No vote in that situation.
Abstentions will be critical. Will labour waverers who fear losing the whip for voting yes abstain instead and see it over the line? And what of the retiring labour MPs who favour a deal, there is nothing to threaten them with. Then the ex Tories, vote against or abstain?
Can't meaningfully count numbers until the DUP are on board. I doubt if they ever will be. All their actions so far have indicated that they support Remain.
I wonder to what extent the public are waking up to the fact that *every single one* of these endless 'Get Your Flu Jab' communications shows flu making life far more difficult and complicated whilst *not a single one* shows flu making life easier or better.
Brexit, all the advantages of a dose of flu....
Well at least that has the benefit of being a bit more honest than the original campaign.
Fake news, he's repeatedly said he's doing this pro bono publico and is in fact costing him money.
He doesn’t want parliament to debate a deal on Friday ?
Stinking hypocrite.
Ironically Maugham appears to be making his case preventing parliament from debating the deal on a wrecking amendment introduced by Jacob Rees-Mogg precisely designed to prevent the government doing what Maugham believes the government wants to do.
Possible yes votes from outside the tory/dup/ex Tory axis Kate Hoey Kelvin Hopkins Frank Field Ian Austin Ivan Lewis Stephen Lloyd Norman Lamb Charlie Elphicke John Woodcock Sarah Champion
Possible abstentions based on past voting Stringer, Skinner, Flint
Mann and O'Mara will be abstentions not present
So if all current Con+DUP MPs (Paterson/Francois etc?) vote for, it's up to 297. Assume as Bebb said, 6-8 of the 21 vote against (some possible abstentions in there?), take the midpoint of 14, takes us to 311.
Then if no O'Mara/Mann, it needs 8 from the above - plus Hermon, has she said anything yet?
Of them Hoey, Field, Elphicke, Champion, Lloyd and Austin are definite yes I think, woodcock very likely to vote yes, Lamb maybe or maybe abstain, Lewis would prefer a referendum but might vote yes The 3 abstainers I think will abstain again and I forgot Kevin Barron, he voted for May's deal so is a possible.
Hermon will vote against I think, shes waspish on the idea
Could come down to the Speaker. Pretty sure the convention would anticipate a No vote in that situation.
I always thought that, from my time as mayor, if it came to a casting vote one should vote for the status quo regardless of your first vote which you were always free to exercise. So the status quo is to remain in the EU so the speaker is obliged to not change our current status.
But like any convention does not have to be followed, though he probably would.
For local authorities unless standing orders dictate otherwise pretty sure the legal position is you can exercise the casting vote however you wish, but I've known plenty adopt a similar general position (or rather stated they would, since ties rarely occur) as you state around status quo. Plenty of more old school chairs may not vote at all unless it is to cast a decider.
Here's a thought - what if Boris turns up at the Council tomorrow, asks for and receives a two week extension to finalise the current WA?
It would essentially bypass the Benn Act.
Something similar was mooted on Twitter earlier (a five week extension) - It was assumed that's why panic stricken members of the Rabble Alliance like Grieve and Lammy flew over the Brussles morning to meet with Barnier etc
Admirably shorn of diplomatic and technical jargon. Historically, I imagine statements of that nature were probably a lot more common. Though I watched a video once which claimed part of the trouble with the Japanese-Korean wars in the late 1590s was diplomats kept changing the messages from their leaders to the other side in order to dial back the tone, but this meant what was actually wanted was getting lost in confusion.
Here's a thought - what if Boris turns up at the Council tomorrow, asks for and receives a two week extension to finalise the current WA?
It would essentially bypass the Benn Act.
No.
The Benn Act dictates the letter he must send requesting an extension until 31 January 2020.
Now if he asks for the the extension as dictated by the letter but the EU offer him one for only two weeks, then the Benn Act is satisfied and BoJo can (and indeed must) accept their offer.
I am surprised that Hoey voted against May's Deal. Why would Woodcock, Lewis or Champion be likely to support this Deal given that they failed to support May? They must despise Johnson much more.
If the French make the Benn Act redundant by vetoing extension, I expect Boris will be dining on moules et frites next week
They talked tough on extension last time then caved, even though there was no British plan to come up with something new. But if they want us out, it is very easy to ensure.
Here's a thought - what if Boris turns up at the Council tomorrow, asks for and receives a two week extension to finalise the current WA?
It would essentially bypass the Benn Act.
No.
The Benn Act dictates the letter he must send requesting an extension until 31 January 2020.
Now if he asks for the the extension as dictated by the letter but the EU offer him one for only two weeks, then the Benn Act is satisfied and BoJo can (and indeed must) accept their offer.
He can ask for a shorter extension, he just needs a confirmatory vote from the commons for the new date.
Here's a thought - what if Boris turns up at the Council tomorrow, asks for and receives a two week extension to finalise the current WA?
It would essentially bypass the Benn Act.
No.
The Benn Act dictates the letter he must send requesting an extension until 31 January 2020.
Now if he asks for the the extension as dictated by the letter but the EU offer him one for only two weeks, then the Benn Act is satisfied and BoJo can (and indeed must) accept their offer.
I thought if the EU offer was anything other than 3 months it was for Parliament to decide if they accept.
Comments
Yes it is very beautiful, though the Causeway was pretty busy with tourists even today
Kate Hoey
Kelvin Hopkins
Frank Field
Ian Austin
Ivan Lewis
Stephen Lloyd
Norman Lamb
Charlie Elphicke
John Woodcock
Sarah Champion
Possible abstentions based on past voting
Stringer, Skinner, Flint
Mann and O'Mara will be abstentions not present
My wife and I are very grateful but it was just playing politics and an absurd thing to do
TM stopping the triple lock and her policy on dementia tax were spot on, but of course she was a terrible salesperson hence the dementia tax failure
I've absolutely no idea of the legal strength of that argument and of course it's hypothetical. No one has seen the agreement text or even if Super Saturday will be a MV. However that appears to be his base argument. If he won they'd need primary legislation to repeal the conflicting law before ' concluding ' the agreement. So it's a delaying tactic.
I will give the Friday morning Stena as wave as it goes past
The weather is meant to be nice on Friday so you will have an easy trip back.
So if all current Con+DUP MPs (Paterson/Francois etc?) vote for, it's up to 297. Assume as Bebb said, 6-8 of the 21 vote against (some possible abstentions in there?), takes us to 310-12.
Then if no O'Mara/Mann, it needs 7-9 from the above - plus Hermon, has she said anything yet?
The public: what deal?
They haven’t got a clue what is going on as no one else does, anyone with two ounces of intelligence would want to see what the deal was and then make an informed judgment, you’re not suggesting people form their opinions without considered thought based on detailed analysis of the available information.
1 MP voted yes at MV1 and MV2, but abstained on MV3, I wonder what was behind that.
H/t to Mr Meeks for the FT link on this
https://ig.ft.com/brexit-exit-deal-vote/
Those MPs who were told they’d lose the whip and still voted to stop no deal deserve credit.
The 3 abstainers I think will abstain again and I forgot Kevin Barron, he voted for May's deal so is a possible.
Hermon will vote against I think, shes waspish on the idea
Then the ex Tories, vote against or abstain?
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2019/oct/07/manchester-restaurant-wins-citys-first-michelin-star-in-40-years
Tied votes
If the vote is tied - which is very unusual - in the Commons the Speaker has the casting vote. The Speaker casts his vote according to what was done in similar circumstances in the past. Where possible the issue should remain open for further discussion and no final decision should be made by a casting vote.
My wife went there and has been happy on occasion to reply truthfully 'Oxford' when asked where she got her degree.
https://twitter.com/libe/status/1184548505081253889
Well at least that has the benefit of being a bit more honest than the original campaign.
Boy, history will eviscerate the current GOP senators and leadership.
It would essentially bypass the Benn Act.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/16/david-correia-rudy-giuliani-associates-campaign-finance
Bringing down Trump could be Rudi’s greatest achievement,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_Denison's_rule
But like any convention does not have to be followed, though he probably would.
For local authorities unless standing orders dictate otherwise pretty sure the legal position is you can exercise the casting vote however you wish, but I've known plenty adopt a similar general position (or rather stated they would, since ties rarely occur) as you state around status quo. Plenty of more old school chairs may not vote at all unless it is to cast a decider.
Si non, tu dois rester la nuit
The Benn Act dictates the letter he must send requesting an extension until 31 January 2020.
Now if he asks for the the extension as dictated by the letter but the EU offer him one for only two weeks, then the Benn Act is satisfied and BoJo can (and indeed must) accept their offer.
That way there will be an end regardless of what happens.
But in this situation, an X week extension would already have been accepted. His subsequent Benn-forced letter would surely be ignored by the Council.