Labour will need a new attack line on why they can't vote for the deal.
LOL. We have been here before. There’s no lock holding a future Tory administration to that. Easily vote against something rather than take it on trust from those you can’t trust.
There was lots of talk on here that rather than humiliate himself for any deal Boris would resign, his government stand on their point of principle and resign. That talk seems to have stopped since it’s become clear Boris is taking the eat his words and spin on his principles for a deal route. 😁
But you can’t bind a future government to anything . It’s really irrelevant what’s in the political declaration . If the Tories win the GE they can do what they like , if Labour win the same .
The ambiguity in Johnson's Deal, I suspect, is in the FTA that's supposed to be fixed during the stand still transition. The. Johnson regime talk airily about a low obligation FTA being agreed within three months. The ERG like the sound of that. In practice any such deal will be high obligation, including level playing field commitments, and will take years to agree.
We will either crash out to a No Deal, deferred only by a few months, in which case mainland UK will potentially be completely cut off from Northern Ireland, worse than the DUP's worst nightmares.
Or we will be back to a multiyear Brexit limbo while nothing can be agreed.
Or it's the Vassal State. That won't please the ERG faction.
I am hoping for the Vassal State. It is almost Remaining and it counts a form of Leave so the Leavers can complain that they got what they voted for even though it is not what they wanted.
The entertainment value of saying "But it only said 'Leave' on the ballot paper, not any particular type of Leave" and watching them fulminate away should provide years of fun.
Are you an irish nationalist?
Just asking. Your avatar suggests you might be.
I am someone who has made a journey to the dark side to get away from the painful joke my country - the UK - has made itself into.
I was blessed with dual nationality so I have embraced my inner Paddy (or possibly inner Colleen)
So as an anti-nationalist you have embraced....nationalism. Very logical.
Petty nationalism is still petty nationalism...even when wearing a green shirt.
Labour will need a new attack line on why they can't vote for the deal.
It is a Tory Deal therefore they will vote against it.
If they can sabotage the Deal then Boris is in trouble and that would suit Corbyn nicely. Why should he vote FOR the deal and make Boris look like Churchill and give him two or three terms in office off the back of it?
Some people think he will get a massive majority if a deal does not get through now, so people are predicting him a long time in office no matter what happens.
There are no circumstances in which it makes political sense for Corbyn to help any deal over the line. But running the numbers earlier if the DUP are on board it will be very close depending on ex-Tory Con, and Labour rebels. How many actually believe leaving needs to happen, with a deal, and realistically think this will be as good as it gets (either because remain, no deal or additional Boris deal after a majority happens)? It needs something like 3/4 of the ex-Cons and as few as 10 Labour rebels. Tantalising for Boris, but just a few votes away.
The best strategy Corbyn has is to find enough of his mates in the PLP that want to move to the Lords and get them to vote for the deal so it passes. He can public ally rage against the deal and porn scorn on those MP and then sit back in his armchair, light the cigar and dream of mass nationalisations without EU interference.
Labour will need a new attack line on why they can't vote for the deal.
They'll find something
It'll be as it was before - regarding the PD not being good enough. Labour voters do not want backing for a deal, nor do any voters they fear losing to the LDs, they won't need to work hard to have a reason millions accept.
Labour will need a new attack line on why they can't vote for the deal.
It is a Tory Deal therefore they will vote against it.
If they can sabotage the Deal then Boris is in trouble and that would suit Corbyn nicely. Why should he vote FOR the deal and make Boris look like Churchill and give him two or three terms in office off the back of it?
Some people think he will get a massive majority if a deal does not get through now, so people are predicting him a long time in office no matter what happens.
There are no circumstances in which it makes political sense for Corbyn to help any deal over the line. But running the numbers earlier if the DUP are on board it will be very close depending on ex-Tory Con, and Labour rebels. How many actually believe leaving needs to happen, with a deal, and realistically think this will be as good as it gets (either because remain, no deal or additional Boris deal after a majority happens)? It needs something like 3/4 of the ex-Cons and as few as 10 Labour rebels. Tantalising for Boris, but just a few votes away.
The best strategy Corbyn has is to find enough of his mates in the PLP that want to move to the Lords and get them to vote for the deal so it passes. He can public ally rage against the deal and porn scorn on those MP and then sit back in his armchair, light the cigar and dream of mass nationalisations without EU interference.
As it was a year ago with the May deal, but it was too derided by too many Tories (cough, boris, cough) to have it happen. 330th day or so after it was announced is the charm, perhaps.
Alberto nardelli on twitter looks to have what the deal looks like . The Consent mechanism looks fair unless you’re the DUP who wanted to have a veto .
It's an incredible deal for NI.
They get the benefits of both the EU and British CU, EU SM, the British FTAs + UK, Ireland and EU have to keep bunging them shed loads of money year after year after year...
Buy property in NI now folks!!!
I think that's absolutely right. If the DUP had any sense they'd also get the UK, EU and Irish governments to pay for a super high speed train that goes Belfast - Dublin Airport - Dublin. It should be possible to make that a 45 minute trip, and enable people to commute to jobs in Dublin from Belfast.
Labour will need a new attack line on why they can't vote for the deal.
LOL. We have been here before. There’s no lock holding a future Tory administration to that. Easily vote against something rather than take it on trust from those you can’t trust.
There was lots of talk on here that rather than humiliate himself for any deal Boris would resign, his government stand on their point of principle and resign. That talk seems to have stopped since it’s become clear Boris is taking the eat his words and spin on his principles for a deal route. 😁
But you can’t bind a future government to anything . It’s really irrelevant what’s in the political declaration . If the Tories win the GE they can do what they like , if Labour win the same .
Yes, it's not the strongest reason. The Jezziah (the poster that is) was pretty clear the WA was fine, it was the PD that would be amended by a Corbyn government, even given the lack of binding nature. But politically its sufficient reason.
As a Remainer I think I can live with this. As a Unionist, I’m nervous about basically locking NI into the EU customs union forever.
Always remember...
“ Also, don’t worry about the so-called ‘permanent’ commitments this historically abysmal Cabinet are trying to make on our behalf. They are not ‘permanent’ and a serious government — one not cowed by officials and their bullshit ‘legal advice’ with which they have herded ministers like sheep — will dispense with these commitments and any domestic law enforcing them.”
Alberto nardelli on twitter looks to have what the deal looks like . The Consent mechanism looks fair unless you’re the DUP who wanted to have a veto .
It's an incredible deal for NI.
They get the benefits of both the EU and British CU, EU SM, the British FTAs + UK, Ireland and EU have to keep bunging them shed loads of money year after year after year...
Buy property in NI now folks!!!
I think that's absolutely right. If the DUP had any sense they'd also get the UK, EU and Irish governments to pay for a super high speed train that goes Belfast - Dublin Airport - Dublin. It should be possible to make that a 45 minute trip, and enable people to commute to jobs in Dublin from Belfast.
Building faster links to Dublin isn't exactly the raison d'être of the DUP.
The ambiguity in Johnson's Deal, I suspect, is in the FTA that's supposed to be fixed during the stand still transition. The. Johnson regime talk airily about a low obligation FTA being agreed within three months. The ERG like the sound of that. In practice any such deal will be high obligation, including level playing field commitments, and will take years to agree.
We will either crash out to a No Deal, deferred only by a few months, in which case mainland UK will potentially be completely cut off from Northern Ireland, worse than the DUP's worst nightmares.
Or we will be back to a multiyear Brexit limbo while nothing can be agreed.
Or it's the Vassal State. That won't please the ERG faction.
I am hoping for the Vassal State. It is almost Remaining and it counts a form of Leave so the Leavers can complain that they got what they voted for even though it is not what they wanted.
The entertainment value of saying "But it only said 'Leave' on the ballot paper, not any particular type of Leave" and watching them fulminate away should provide years of fun.
Are you an irish nationalist?
Just asking. Your avatar suggests you might be.
I am someone who has made a journey to the dark side to get away from the painful joke my country - the UK - has made itself into.
I was blessed with dual nationality so I have embraced my inner Paddy (or possibly inner Colleen)
So as an anti-nationalist you have embraced....nationalism. Very logical.
Petty nationalism is still petty nationalism...even when wearing a green shirt.
Has everyone checked their ditches for the Prime Minister yet?
It is a Deal in Name Only.
I guess we're soon going to find out whether people did only ever care about "getting Brexit done", when we go into the constantly-extending transition period (LOL at people still claiming it will "end in 2020") where nothing at all changes.
Will Farage go home and stop screaming "betrayal"? Will the average Leave voter care that immigration is completely unchanged? Will ERG MPs stop caring about the fact we can't do independent trade deals? Will the fact we're technically out of the EU and have symbolically "got Brexit done" be enough to satisfy people? I'm in two minds tbh.
The problem is more fundamental than that, I think. The agreement, such as it is, depends on a vaguely defined FTA being put in place. The Johnson regime talk about this being sorted in a few months and will be low obligation. In fact it will take years if ever happens at all and will certainly be high obligation. So what happens next? Do we crash out after all? Do we stay in a decade long transition to nowhere? Do we sign up to the full SM+CU+VAT area? No-one knows, but the implications of each are hugely different.
I do wonder when you will accept that we're leaving the SM+CU+VAT area? I mean, the whole tone of the current negotiations make only doing that likely.
I think staying in the SM+CU+VAT area is likely because the alternatives of No Deal crash out and a multiyear limbo to FTA will prove unacceptable. Nothing really has changed in the past three years. In fact it's the denial of this point that has dragged things out.
Labour will need a new attack line on why they can't vote for the deal.
It is a Tory Deal therefore they will vote against it.
If they can sabotage the Deal then Boris is in trouble and that would suit Corbyn nicely. Why should he vote FOR the deal and make Boris look like Churchill and give him two or three terms in office off the back of it?
Some people think he will get a massive majority if a deal does not get through now, so people are predicting him a long time in office no matter what happens.
There are no circumstances in which it makes political sense for Corbyn to help any deal over the line. But running the numbers earlier if the DUP are on board it will be very close depending on ex-Tory Con, and Labour rebels. How many actually believe leaving needs to happen, with a deal, and realistically think this will be as good as it gets (either because remain, no deal or additional Boris deal after a majority happens)? It needs something like 3/4 of the ex-Cons and as few as 10 Labour rebels. Tantalising for Boris, but just a few votes away.
The best strategy Corbyn has is to find enough of his mates in the PLP that want to move to the Lords and get them to vote for the deal so it passes. He can public ally rage against the deal and porn scorn on those MP and then sit back in his armchair, light the cigar and dream of mass nationalisations without EU interference.
As it was a year ago with the May deal, but it was too derided by too many Tories (cough, boris, cough) to have it happen. 330th day or so after it was announced is the charm, perhaps.
i accept that if the Tories en masse vote against deal then my proposal for Corbyn will not work. At the moment the signals are the Tory MPs are onside, so it is viable for Corbyn.
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
Labour will need a new attack line on why they can't vote for the deal.
It is a Tory Deal therefore they will vote against it.
If they can sabotage the Deal then Boris is in trouble and that would suit Corbyn nicely. Why should he vote FOR the deal and make Boris look like Churchill and give him two or three terms in office off the back of it?
Some people think he will get a massive majority if a deal does not get through now, so people are predicting him a long time in office no matter what happens.
There are no circumstances in which it makes political sense for Corbyn to help any deal over the line. But running the numbers earlier if the DUP are on board it will be very close depending on ex-Tory Con, and Labour rebels. How many actually believe leaving needs to happen, with a deal, and realistically think this will be as good as it gets (either because remain, no deal or additional Boris deal after a majority happens)? It needs something like 3/4 of the ex-Cons and as few as 10 Labour rebels. Tantalising for Boris, but just a few votes away.
The best strategy Corbyn has is to find enough of his mates in the PLP that want to move to the Lords and get them to vote for the deal so it passes. He can public ally rage against the deal and porn scorn on those MP and then sit back in his armchair, light the cigar and dream of mass nationalisations without EU interference.
As it was a year ago with the May deal, but it was too derided by too many Tories (cough, boris, cough) to have it happen. 330th day or so after it was announced is the charm, perhaps.
i accept that if the Tories en masse vote against deal then my proposal for Corbyn will not work. At the moment the signals are the Tory MPs are onside, so it is viable for Corbyn.
I wasn't disagreeing, just noting that it's taken 11 months to get to a point many thought it would all along.
If I remember rightly the hard part about the Shawshank's Redemption escape wasn't getting out, it was getting the prison to agree to keep sending him the prison food.
If he doesn't get some momentum out of Iowa, he is sunk.
That's absolutely right. But it's not a stupid strategy at all. Obama got a twenty point bump in the national polls following his win in Iowa. I don't see why Mayor Pete wouldn't get similar (if he wins).
Buttigieg's path to victory is narrow, but it exists. He needs to be the party moderate.
So, he needs Biden to stumble and no-one else to take his place. Now, the good news is that Biden has weak organisation in Iowa, and none of the other moderates (except possibly Klobucher) seem to have any presence there at all.
If he beats Biden in Iowa, but trails Warren, then he has some momentum, but he needs it to follow through to New Hampshire.
If he wins Iowa outright, then he's in a genuinely good position to win the nomination.
If he's third or worse in Iowa, he's not in the race.
(I would note that his ground game in Nevada - another caucus state - is said to be very strong as well.)
As inevitable as the tides. #MPsforaDealNoNotThatDeal
The Benn Act seems to have been a boon and a problem really - Boris does not seem to have gotten off his arse until it forced him to, but the lack of a ticking clock has genuinely allowed several dozen MPs to prevaricate, always wanting something just out of reach which may never even emerge.
Boris might get something through with half the MPsforaDeal crowd, but needs all other 'possible' groups to fall his way too.
HYUFD was right on it being a GE on Boris Deal vs Revoke vs Referendum (but not about Boris resigning I would think - why would he when he did his end and got a deal agreed by the EU - should that be confirmed - but parliamebt said no)
Alberto nardelli on twitter looks to have what the deal looks like . The Consent mechanism looks fair unless you’re the DUP who wanted to have a veto .
It's an incredible deal for NI.
They get the benefits of both the EU and British CU, EU SM, the British FTAs + UK, Ireland and EU have to keep bunging them shed loads of money year after year after year...
Buy property in NI now folks!!!
I think that's absolutely right. If the DUP had any sense they'd also get the UK, EU and Irish governments to pay for a super high speed train that goes Belfast - Dublin Airport - Dublin. It should be possible to make that a 45 minute trip, and enable people to commute to jobs in Dublin from Belfast.
Building faster links to Dublin isn't exactly the raison d'être of the DUP.
Foolish me thought their main concern was the welfare of the people of Northern Ireland
If he doesn't get some momentum out of Iowa, he is sunk.
That's absolutely right. But it's not a stupid strategy at all. Obama got a twenty point bump in the national polls following his win in Iowa. I don't see why Mayor Pete wouldn't get similar (if he wins).
Buttigieg's path to victory is narrow, but it exists. He needs to be the party moderate.
So, he needs Biden to stumble and no-one else to take his place. Now, the good news is that Biden has weak organisation in Iowa, and none of the other moderates (except possibly Klobucher) seem to have any presence there at all.
If he beats Biden in Iowa, but trails Warren, then he has some momentum, but he needs it to follow through to New Hampshire.
If he wins Iowa outright, then he's in a genuinely good position to win the nomination.
If he's third or worse in Iowa, he's not in the race.
(I would note that his ground game in Nevada - another caucus state - is said to be very strong as well.)
I just see Warren too far ahead, and particularly so in California. I cannot see Mayor Pete doing well enough in SC either.
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
People moaning about him being called Boris is tiresome, and generally pretty insulting to the public for the supposed benefits it grants him, but I don't know that objecting to him being called by his last name is that different.
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
Alberto nardelli on twitter looks to have what the deal looks like . The Consent mechanism looks fair unless you’re the DUP who wanted to have a veto .
It's an incredible deal for NI.
They get the benefits of both the EU and British CU, EU SM, the British FTAs + UK, Ireland and EU have to keep bunging them shed loads of money year after year after year...
Buy property in NI now folks!!!
I think that's absolutely right. If the DUP had any sense they'd also get the UK, EU and Irish governments to pay for a super high speed train that goes Belfast - Dublin Airport - Dublin. It should be possible to make that a 45 minute trip, and enable people to commute to jobs in Dublin from Belfast.
Building faster links to Dublin isn't exactly the raison d'être of the DUP.
Foolish me thought their main concern was the welfare of the people of Northern Ireland
Apparently political stalemate on sectarian lines until the end of time is for the betterment of welfare of the people of Northern Ireland, if their politicians generally are any indication.
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
Do they also refer to Corbyn just by his surname?
The only other politician generally referred to by their first name I can think of is Ken.
And Gloria was one of the easier Labour votes to get, since she's retiring.
Another pathetic case of an MP refusing every option on offer while refusing to spell out what they want insteaad. It is a complete abdication of parliamentary responsibility. It is good to see the back of such people. They don't deserve political careers.
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
Do they also refer to Corbyn just by his surname?
The only politician generally referred to by their first name I can think of is Ken.
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
Do they also refer to Corbyn just by his surname?
The only politician generally referred to by their first name I can think of is Ken.
If he doesn't get some momentum out of Iowa, he is sunk.
That's absolutely right. But it's not a stupid strategy at all. Obama got a twenty point bump in the national polls following his win in Iowa. I don't see why Mayor Pete wouldn't get similar (if he wins).
Buttigieg's path to victory is narrow, but it exists. He needs to be the party moderate.
So, he needs Biden to stumble and no-one else to take his place. Now, the good news is that Biden has weak organisation in Iowa, and none of the other moderates (except possibly Klobucher) seem to have any presence there at all.
If he beats Biden in Iowa, but trails Warren, then he has some momentum, but he needs it to follow through to New Hampshire.
If he wins Iowa outright, then he's in a genuinely good position to win the nomination.
If he's third or worse in Iowa, he's not in the race.
(I would note that his ground game in Nevada - another caucus state - is said to be very strong as well.)
I just see Warren too far ahead, and particularly so in California. I cannot see Mayor Pete doing well enough in SC either.
Warren is rightly the favorite. This isn't a question of whether she is the most likely to win (she is), it's a question of who the moderate candidate will be who is challenging her throughout the nomination process.
If we say she is 60% likely to win, and the moderate 40%, then what are the chances Buttigieg is the moderate candidate? I'd argue it's close to 50:50 whether it's him or Biden now. (Or maybe 40:40:20 with the 20 being anyone else.) That means Buttigieg is value at anything more than about 7-1. (I'd say the right price for him is 8-1)
I find the concept of " scab " appalling but it exists and is incredibly powerful in the Labour movement. Any Labour MP who helps Boris Johnson get his deal through and deliver the subsequent realignment of the economy will be deemed a " scab ". A handful won't care but it won't be many. And the huge changes to the PD offer more than enough cover to vote against anyway.
Will these be the scapegoats if the deal implodes . In terms of NI, polling there shows only 12% support a no deal . 60% would prefer to remain in the EU , and 24% to leave with a deal.
Alberto nardelli on twitter looks to have what the deal looks like . The Consent mechanism looks fair unless you’re the DUP who wanted to have a veto .
It's an incredible deal for NI.
They get the benefits of both the EU and British CU, EU SM, the British FTAs + UK, Ireland and EU have to keep bunging them shed loads of money year after year after year...
Buy property in NI now folks!!!
I think that's absolutely right. If the DUP had any sense they'd also get the UK, EU and Irish governments to pay for a super high speed train that goes Belfast - Dublin Airport - Dublin. It should be possible to make that a 45 minute trip, and enable people to commute to jobs in Dublin from Belfast.
Building faster links to Dublin isn't exactly the raison d'être of the DUP.
Foolish me thought their main concern was the welfare of the people of Northern Ireland
You have never met them, have you? They used to turn up on the doorstep when canvassing and their attitudes are stoneage at best.
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
Do they also refer to Corbyn just by his surname?
The only other politician generally referred to by their first name I can think of is Ken.
Will these be the scapegoats if the deal implodes . In terms of NI, polling there shows only 12% support a no deal . 60% would prefer to remain in the EU , and 24% to leave with a deal.
Boris's efforts over the last week at least, belated as they have been, have gone some way to dispelling the idea he was not interested in getting a deal at all. Whether he would have tried without the Benn Act and whether he has tried hard enough are additional questions, but he has at least seemingly tried a bit, so I'll give him that much credit.
That might be enough for him come a pending election, showing how he tried for a deal and wanted no deal when that failed, but was forcefully prevented. If that two pronged approach works, the DUP can go hang, so yes, they will probably be added to the list of scapegoats along with the EU for not shifting enough, parliament for forcing an extension, and judges/the elite for conspiring with parliament.
By my count the 41st MP to change party affiliation this calendar year.
In any normal circumstances that would be an absolutely devastating resignation. How often do you get an MP saying something like this about their own party's (or now ex-party's) leader?
"I believe that Jeremy Corbyn is not fit to serve as our Prime Minister.
With a looming general election and the possibility of him becoming Prime Minister, I feel I have to take a stand."
And she told the Times newspaper that if he became prime minister “I believe that Jeremy Corbyn would be a danger to the country, a danger to the Jewish community as well, but a danger to the country too”.
I find the concept of " scab " appalling but it exists and is incredibly powerful in the Labour movement. Any Labour MP who helps Boris Johnson get his deal through and deliver the subsequent realignment of the economy will be deemed a " scab ". A handful won't care but it won't be many. And the huge changes to the PD offer more than enough cover to vote against anyway.
You may not like the concept of "scab" but anyone with a passing knowledge of working class politics and industrial relations would understand how it has come about and why it resonates. Groups who require high levels of solidarity to achieve their goals will inevitably create powerful social stigma around deviating from that solidarity. It's the same reason that the army used to shoot deserters.
I find the concept of " scab " appalling but it exists and is incredibly powerful in the Labour movement. Any Labour MP who helps Boris Johnson get his deal through and deliver the subsequent realignment of the economy will be deemed a " scab ". A handful won't care but it won't be many. And the huge changes to the PD offer more than enough cover to vote against anyway.
You may not like the concept of "scab" but anyone with a passing knowledge of working class politics and industrial relations would understand how it has come about and why it resonates. Groups who require high levels of solidarity to achieve their goals will inevitably create powerful social stigma around deviating from that solidarity. It's the same reason that the army used to shoot deserters.
I've been called a traitor a few times for being pro-EU. Seems to me "scab" is just a milder version of that.
I find the concept of " scab " appalling but it exists and is incredibly powerful in the Labour movement. Any Labour MP who helps Boris Johnson get his deal through and deliver the subsequent realignment of the economy will be deemed a " scab ". A handful won't care but it won't be many. And the huge changes to the PD offer more than enough cover to vote against anyway.
You may not like the concept of "scab" but anyone with a passing knowledge of working class politics and industrial relations would understand how it has come about and why it resonates. Groups who require high levels of solidarity to achieve their goals will inevitably create powerful social stigma around deviating from that solidarity. It's the same reason that the army used to shoot deserters.
So Louise Ellman is therefore a scab by that logic?
I find the concept of " scab " appalling but it exists and is incredibly powerful in the Labour movement. Any Labour MP who helps Boris Johnson get his deal through and deliver the subsequent realignment of the economy will be deemed a " scab ". A handful won't care but it won't be many. And the huge changes to the PD offer more than enough cover to vote against anyway.
You may not like the concept of "scab" but anyone with a passing knowledge of working class politics and industrial relations would understand how it has come about and why it resonates. Groups who require high levels of solidarity to achieve their goals will inevitably create powerful social stigma around deviating from that solidarity. It's the same reason that the army used to shoot deserters.
I've been called a traitor a few times for being pro-EU. Seems to me "scab" is just a milder version of that.
Likewise. I could not care less what names they call me.
Kinnock on Peston saying in convoluted terms that he will not support the deal.
The key thing was his interview 48hrs ago where he set his price as beefing *up* the PD to include the May Era concessions offered to Labour during the joint talks. He knew well 48hrs ago the PD was being watered down so was clearly preparing the ground for a ' more in sorrow than anger ' vote against.
He wants to be leader of the Labour Party. His willingness to facilitate Brexit stemmed from when that help him achieve that goal. Now it won't.
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
People moaning about him being called Boris is tiresome, and generally pretty insulting to the public for the supposed benefits it grants him, but I don't know that objecting to him being called by his last name is that different.
I think you'd be naive to think it doesn't grant him benefits - he wouldn't have cultivated it otherwise. He is a politician who puts more effort into a carefully constructed fake persona than any other front rank UK politician. It's not even his bloody name!
Alberto nardelli on twitter looks to have what the deal looks like . The Consent mechanism looks fair unless you’re the DUP who wanted to have a veto .
It's an incredible deal for NI.
They get the benefits of both the EU and British CU, EU SM, the British FTAs + UK, Ireland and EU have to keep bunging them shed loads of money year after year after year...
Buy property in NI now folks!!!
I think that's absolutely right. If the DUP had any sense they'd also get the UK, EU and Irish governments to pay for a super high speed train that goes Belfast - Dublin Airport - Dublin. It should be possible to make that a 45 minute trip, and enable people to commute to jobs in Dublin from Belfast.
Belfast to Dublin is just over 110 miles on the current line.
St Pancras to Ashford International is 56 miles and HS1 takes 37 minutes to do that journey (but with two stops). That would suggest you would be looking at 1h15m from Belfast to Dublin at the same speeds.
HS1 operates at 186mph, TGV looks like it tops out at 200mph, HS2 was going to be 225mph, but it's rumoured they will lower that to cut costs. To reach a journey time of 45 minutes you would need to be looking at speeds of about 300mph. I think the Shanghai maglev is the fastest train currently in service - at 267mph.
A high speed line would probably be a bit shorter than the present line, and only having the one stop would help to reduce the journey time, but I think 45 minutes might be beyond what is possible.
EDIT: Ignore me. I've forgotten about the acceleration and deceleration which makes the St Pancras to Ashford a really poor analogue for a possible Belfast to Dublin line.
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
Do they also refer to Corbyn just by his surname?
The only other politician generally referred to by their first name I can think of is Ken.
It's BJ's second name, but in any case..
Ed Dave Eck Maggie Enoch
If you want to get really historical, I'm sure Ken could think of a politician universally known by his first name.
I find the concept of " scab " appalling but it exists and is incredibly powerful in the Labour movement. Any Labour MP who helps Boris Johnson get his deal through and deliver the subsequent realignment of the economy will be deemed a " scab ". A handful won't care but it won't be many. And the huge changes to the PD offer more than enough cover to vote against anyway.
You may not like the concept of "scab" but anyone with a passing knowledge of working class politics and industrial relations would understand how it has come about and why it resonates. Groups who require high levels of solidarity to achieve their goals will inevitably create powerful social stigma around deviating from that solidarity. It's the same reason that the army used to shoot deserters.
I've been called a traitor a few times for being pro-EU. Seems to me "scab" is just a milder version of that.
Likewise. I could not care less what names they call me.
Same here, apart from the time a Brexist doxxed me and told me (correctly) my partner's workplace. Which was really quite alarming.
By my count the 41st MP to change party affiliation this calendar year.
In any normal circumstances that would be an absolutely devastating resignation. How often do you get an MP saying something like this about their own party's (or now ex-party's) leader?
"I believe that Jeremy Corbyn is not fit to serve as our Prime Minister.
With a looming general election and the possibility of him becoming Prime Minister, I feel I have to take a stand."
And she told the Times newspaper that if he became prime minister “I believe that Jeremy Corbyn would be a danger to the country, a danger to the Jewish community as well, but a danger to the country too”.
Of course she's absolutely right.
I thought that the statement "... we cannot let him do to the country what he has done to the Labour Party ..." was a bit of a bridge-burner.
I find the concept of " scab " appalling but it exists and is incredibly powerful in the Labour movement. Any Labour MP who helps Boris Johnson get his deal through and deliver the subsequent realignment of the economy will be deemed a " scab ". A handful won't care but it won't be many. And the huge changes to the PD offer more than enough cover to vote against anyway.
You may not like the concept of "scab" but anyone with a passing knowledge of working class politics and industrial relations would understand how it has come about and why it resonates. Groups who require high levels of solidarity to achieve their goals will inevitably create powerful social stigma around deviating from that solidarity. It's the same reason that the army used to shoot deserters.
I've been called a traitor a few times for being pro-EU. Seems to me "scab" is just a milder version of that.
Likewise. I could not care less what names they call me.
Same here, apart from the time a Brexist doxxed me and told me (correctly) my partner's workplace. Which was really quite alarming.
Alberto nardelli on twitter looks to have what the deal looks like . The Consent mechanism looks fair unless you’re the DUP who wanted to have a veto .
It's an incredible deal for NI.
They get the benefits of both the EU and British CU, EU SM, the British FTAs + UK, Ireland and EU have to keep bunging them shed loads of money year after year after year...
Buy property in NI now folks!!!
I think that's absolutely right. If the DUP had any sense they'd also get the UK, EU and Irish governments to pay for a super high speed train that goes Belfast - Dublin Airport - Dublin. It should be possible to make that a 45 minute trip, and enable people to commute to jobs in Dublin from Belfast.
Belfast to Dublin is just over 110 miles on the current line.
St Pancras to Ashford International is 56 miles and HS1 takes 37 minutes to do that journey (but with two stops). That would suggest you would be looking at 1h15m from Belfast to Dublin at the same speeds.
HS1 operates at 186mph, TGV looks like it tops out at 200mph, HS2 was going to be 225mph, but it's rumoured they will lower that to cut costs. To reach a journey time of 45 minutes you would need to be looking at speeds of about 300mph. I think the Shanghai maglev is the fastest train currently in service - at 267mph. A high speed line would probably be a bit shorter than the present line, and only having the one stop would help to reduce the journey time, but I think 45 minutes might be beyond what is possible.
Plus when the Boris bridge is open it will be a short ride to Scotland..
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
People moaning about him being called Boris is tiresome, and generally pretty insulting to the public for the supposed benefits it grants him, but I don't know that objecting to him being called by his last name is that different.
I think you'd be naive to think it doesn't grant him benefits - he wouldn't have cultivated it otherwise. He is a politician who puts more effort into a carefully constructed fake persona than any other front rank UK politician. It's not even his bloody name!
I dont buy it. I generally call him Boris and I think hes an absolute arsehole, whatever cuddly persona he had or has doesnt mean people are more disposed to him if a pundit says Boris rather than Boris Johnson or just Johnson. How stupid are people supposed to be?
I find the concept of " scab " appalling but it exists and is incredibly powerful in the Labour movement. Any Labour MP who helps Boris Johnson get his deal through and deliver the subsequent realignment of the economy will be deemed a " scab ". A handful won't care but it won't be many. And the huge changes to the PD offer more than enough cover to vote against anyway.
You may not like the concept of "scab" but anyone with a passing knowledge of working class politics and industrial relations would understand how it has come about and why it resonates. Groups who require high levels of solidarity to achieve their goals will inevitably create powerful social stigma around deviating from that solidarity. It's the same reason that the army used to shoot deserters.
So Louise Ellman is therefore a scab by that logic?
Personally I think Ellman has put up with enough shit from the bloody trots in her local party and the duties of collective solidarity are no longer binding on her. I thought we were talking about voting for the Tory Brexit clusterfuck here?
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
People moaning about him being called Boris is tiresome, and generally pretty insulting to the public for the supposed benefits it grants him, but I don't know that objecting to him being called by his last name is that different.
I think you'd be naive to think it doesn't grant him benefits - he wouldn't have cultivated it otherwise. He is a politician who puts more effort into a carefully constructed fake persona than any other front rank UK politician. It's not even his bloody name!
I dont buy it. I generally call him Boris and I think hes an absolute arsehole, whatever cuddly persona he had or has doesnt mean people are more disposed to him if a pundit says Boris rather than Boris Johnson or just Johnson. How stupid are people supposed to be?
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
Given that Newsnight has referred to all his predecessors - May, Cameron, Brown, Blair, Major, Thatcher - by their surname, I think your point lacks traction.
Assuming Boris gets the ERG and the DUP on board, the third troublesome faction of which there is little discussion are the Tory rebels who were thrown out of the party. Will they break for a deal? Admittedly there are some who probably would (a well timed promise of readmission would probably get some on side) but has there been any soundings of people like Clarke? Grieve? Letwin? Greening? I’m still of the impression that they’ll be hard to get on side.
A MV win is not a given even if Boris gets everyone else on side.
Comments
Petty nationalism is still petty nationalism...even when wearing a green shirt.
Climate the environment and workers' rights are all areas in which Britain leads Europe
https://twitter.com/SKinnock/status/1184584192430084096
“ Also, don’t worry about the so-called ‘permanent’ commitments this historically abysmal Cabinet are trying to make on our behalf. They are not ‘permanent’ and a serious government — one not cowed by officials and their bullshit ‘legal advice’ with which they have herded ministers like sheep — will dispense with these commitments and any domestic law enforcing them.”
I merely identify as Irish, not British.
We'll see.
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1184575713141280768?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
https://twitter.com/GloriaDePiero/status/1184592861179863040
Buttigieg's path to victory is narrow, but it exists. He needs to be the party moderate.
So, he needs Biden to stumble and no-one else to take his place. Now, the good news is that Biden has weak organisation in Iowa, and none of the other moderates (except possibly Klobucher) seem to have any presence there at all.
If he beats Biden in Iowa, but trails Warren, then he has some momentum, but he needs it to follow through to New Hampshire.
If he wins Iowa outright, then he's in a genuinely good position to win the nomination.
If he's third or worse in Iowa, he's not in the race.
(I would note that his ground game in Nevada - another caucus state - is said to be very strong as well.)
The Benn Act seems to have been a boon and a problem really - Boris does not seem to have gotten off his arse until it forced him to, but the lack of a ticking clock has genuinely allowed several dozen MPs to prevaricate, always wanting something just out of reach which may never even emerge.
Boris might get something through with half the MPsforaDeal crowd, but needs all other 'possible' groups to fall his way too.
HYUFD was right on it being a GE on Boris Deal vs Revoke vs Referendum (but not about Boris resigning I would think - why would he when he did his end and got a deal agreed by the EU - should that be confirmed - but parliamebt said no)
If we say she is 60% likely to win, and the moderate 40%, then what are the chances Buttigieg is the moderate candidate? I'd argue it's close to 50:50 whether it's him or Biden now. (Or maybe 40:40:20 with the 20 being anyone else.) That means Buttigieg is value at anything more than about 7-1. (I'd say the right price for him is 8-1)
Will these be the scapegoats if the deal implodes . In terms of NI, polling there shows only 12% support a no deal . 60% would prefer to remain in the EU , and 24% to leave with a deal.
Maggie.
That might be enough for him come a pending election, showing how he tried for a deal and wanted no deal when that failed, but was forcefully prevented. If that two pronged approach works, the DUP can go hang, so yes, they will probably be added to the list of scapegoats along with the EU for not shifting enough, parliament for forcing an extension, and judges/the elite for conspiring with parliament.
"I believe that Jeremy Corbyn is not fit to serve as our Prime Minister.
With a looming general election and the possibility of him becoming Prime Minister, I feel I have to take a stand."
And she told the Times newspaper that if he became prime minister “I believe that Jeremy Corbyn would be a danger to the country, a danger to the Jewish community as well, but a danger to the country too”.
Of course she's absolutely right.
https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1184524743082422274?s=21
He wants to be leader of the Labour Party. His willingness to facilitate Brexit stemmed from when that help him achieve that goal. Now it won't.
St Pancras to Ashford International is 56 miles and HS1 takes 37 minutes to do that journey (but with two stops). That would suggest you would be looking at 1h15m from Belfast to Dublin at the same speeds.
HS1 operates at 186mph, TGV looks like it tops out at 200mph, HS2 was going to be 225mph, but it's rumoured they will lower that to cut costs. To reach a journey time of 45 minutes you would need to be looking at speeds of about 300mph. I think the Shanghai maglev is the fastest train currently in service - at 267mph.
A high speed line would probably be a bit shorter than the present line, and only having the one stop would help to reduce the journey time, but I think 45 minutes might be beyond what is possible.
EDIT: Ignore me. I've forgotten about the acceleration and deceleration which makes the St Pancras to Ashford a really poor analogue for a possible Belfast to Dublin line.
Ed
Dave
Eck
Maggie
Enoch
If you want to get really historical, I'm sure Ken could think of a politician universally known by his first name.
A MV win is not a given even if Boris gets everyone else on side.