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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All three main party leaders are in negative ratings territory

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All three main party leaders are in negative ratings territory with Corbyn’s numbers the worst

If you had followed the 2017 General Election only through the prism of leader ratings then the actual outcome with the Labour recovery would have been less of a surprise. For these were showing that Theresa May’s numbers getting steadily worse and that Corbyn’s were improving very rapidly in the run up to election. Indeed by election day Corbyn had jumped out of negative territory.

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    edited October 2019
    First like the Lib Dems in London.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Second
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Third in the ugly contest
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    The Tory party is morphing, as moderates stand down one after another.

    It is no longer conserving much frankly.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Sean_F said:

    Regardless of tactical voting, unusual swings etc. *if* the Conservatives finish up 10% ahead, then they'll get their majority, even if it's in unusual places.

    Yup. If we can't work out which seats they'd win to get a majority given a lead like that, that's our problem not theirs.
    I can't see the Tories winning by ten points. 5 to 6 would be my best guess.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Gabs2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Regardless of tactical voting, unusual swings etc. *if* the Conservatives finish up 10% ahead, then they'll get their majority, even if it's in unusual places.

    Yup. If we can't work out which seats they'd win to get a majority given a lead like that, that's our problem not theirs.
    I can't see the Tories winning by ten points. 5 to 6 would be my best guess.
    Depends on the Lab and LD shares.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    edited October 2019
    Can anyone post a link to a reliable vote swap site if they come across one, thanks..
  • Warrington North Labour MP Helen Jones has announced she is to step down after 22 years in Parliament.
  • So 44 out of 64 people (nearly 70%) who have an opinion on Swinson have an unfavourable one?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    The Tory party is morphing, as moderates stand down one after another.

    It is no longer conserving much frankly.

    The purge of the moderates was supposed to be a Labour phenomenon. How many of the TIG/LD defectors wish they'd stayed?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Jeremy Corbyn: "Our NHS should be focused on making people better, not making a wealthy few richer" #PMQs
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Jezza won PMQs. Boris weak but is certainly a funny guy. Would have a pint with him any day. PM? Not so much.

    I was wondering why we all thought he was manifestly unsuited to be PM and today and I daresay the next few weeks will remind us why.

    Jeez what a state this country is in.
  • The figures for Corbyn amongst 2017 Labour voters are quite extraordinarily bad.

    Jo Swinson's ratings amongst 2017 LD voters are also surprisingly poor, with lots of don't knows. 2017 LD voters comprise the party's faithful vote from a time where the party wasn't in great shape, and therefore you might expect them to be more informed about her and more loyal to her than these figures show.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    tlg86 said:

    First like the Lib Dems in London.

    Its the hope that gets you
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    The Tory party is morphing, as moderates stand down one after another.

    It is no longer conserving much frankly.

    The ones replacing them are pretty fine candidates, from what I'm seeing.

    We've got a great one in Totnes.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605

    Jeremy Corbyn: "Our NHS should be focused on making people better, not making a wealthy few richer" #PMQs

    I was struck by Johnson's lack of empathy. I think there is a weakness there, together with his habit of speaking off the cuff, that Labour can exploit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.

    Given most Tory voters are Leavers, even in Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney, the Tory strategy to push for Brexit is the correct one, if they do not they get wiped out by the Brexit Party as the European elections showed.

    The fact Remainers are moving LD means some Tory Remain seats are vulnerable to the LDs but the Tories have more Labour Leave marginal seats to compensate
    The Tories will need to make up losses to both the Lib Dems and SNP just to stand still. It's a tough ask.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Tory response to labour NHS attacks.........Wales......

    Tory response to labour education attacks......chuffin' Wales......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    FPT:

    Tissue_Price said:
    Newcastle-under-Lyme: Lab majority 30

    Good morning all - if anyone wants to help my campaign in Newcastle-under-Lyme, either in person or by donating, please take a look here: https://www.aaronbell.org.uk/support-aarons-campaign

    I'd be delighted to meet pb friends in person if anyone can make it - it's in the north of the West Midlands and yet only 90 mins from London on the train.

    www.facebook.com/AaronBell4NUL
    www.twitter.com/AaronBell4NUL

    Aaron, we have a bit of a challenge here in Totnes! But when I go up to see my mum, I'll drop over to shove some leaflets through letter boxes. Good luck.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    The choice at this election couldn’t be clearer. Our NHS is up for grabs by US corporations in a Trump trade deal. Isn’t the truth that this Conservative government is preparing to sell out our NHS, and our health service is in more danger than ever before? -
    @Jeremycorbyn
    #PMQs
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Given the best PM and leader net favourability ratings are more accurate than straight party voting intention figures historically, yet more evidence if Labour had a more centrist and charismatic leader than Corbyn they could even have won this general election given neither Boris nor Swinson are hugely popular beyond their base but both are still more popular than Corbyn
  • A higher proportion of Lab voters have an unfavourable view of Corbyn than do of Swinson?

    @bigjohnowls can you explain why they don't hate the "Tory"?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Warrington North Labour MP Helen Jones has announced she is to step down after 22 years in Parliament.

    Tory gain chance now
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tory benches are looking very glum. So are Labour, but you'd expect that.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    It's not just that the numbers are negative, the unfavourable numbers for both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn are absolute majorities. 40% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Boris Johnson and 53% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Jeremy Corbyn. They are both widely loathed.

    This has major implications for how the general election will play out.

    But to be fair even the relatively-inoffensive Jo is on 30% Very Unfavourable. The current polarization of the electorate and their unwillingness to give opponents the benefit of the doubt would still be there even if the major leaders were not themselves polarizing characters.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2019

    The choice at this election couldn’t be clearer. Our NHS is up for grabs by US corporations in a Trump trade deal. Isn’t the truth that this Conservative government is preparing to sell out our NHS, and our health service is in more danger than ever before? -
    @Jeremycorbyn
    #PMQs

    Who is writing his tweets for him these days?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    The choice at this election couldn’t be clearer. Our NHS is up for grabs by US corporations in a Trump trade deal. Isn’t the truth that this Conservative government is preparing to sell out our NHS, and our health service is in more danger than ever before? -
    @Jeremycorbyn
    #PMQs

    er ...........WALES.........
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Warrington North Labour MP Helen Jones has announced she is to step down after 22 years in Parliament.

    Tory gain chance now
    I doubt it. The Tories were 20% behind Labour in 2017...
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    It's not just that the numbers are negative, the unfavourable numbers for both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn are absolute majorities. 40% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Boris Johnson and 53% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Jeremy Corbyn. They are both widely loathed.

    This has major implications for how the general election will play out.

    It’s worth thinking about in the context of Labour remainers being ‘remain 1st labour 2nd’ and Labour leavers being ‘Labour 1st leave 2nd’ - could reasonably lead to the conclusion that however disliked Corbyn might be, he gets remainer votes if that’s the best choice to pursue remain; conversely leavers are less likely to care enough about leaving to vote for someone as disliked as Johnson. It makes the Tory northern-Labour-leave-seats strategy look challenging.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Well if the next 45 days go like today I will be happy

    The blustering PM really is hopeless
  • The Tory party is morphing, as moderates stand down one after another.

    It is no longer conserving much frankly.

    'tis why I refer to it as the CINO Party. There are many of us who used to be activists and voters who liked having a party that believed in governments that are essentially conservative, not revolutionary, thereby reducing unnecessary upheaval and allowing people to get on with their lives.
  • Tory response to labour NHS attacks.........Wales......

    Tory response to labour education attacks......chuffin' Wales......

    I live in Wales and condemn Welsh labour's running of our NHS and the failing education system. I waited 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op, our hospital is in special measures and we cannot even get our flu jabs, even though we are priority patients.

    And don't get me started on education

    Labour need throwing out of Wales
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    The Tory party is morphing, as moderates stand down one after another.

    It is no longer conserving much frankly.

    'tis why I refer to it as the CINO Party. There are many of us who used to be activists and voters who liked having a party that believed in governments that are essentially conservative, not revolutionary, thereby reducing unnecessary upheaval and allowing people to get on with their lives.
    You are utterly clueless.

    Clearly no loss.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    HYUFD said:

    Given the best PM and leader net favourability ratings are more accurate than straight party voting intention figures historically, yet more evidence if Labour had a more centrist and charismatic leader than Corbyn they could even have won this general election given neither Boris nor Swinson are hugely popular beyond their base but both are still more popular than Corbyn

    I predict that gap will close significantly over the next 45 days.

    Do you not agree?
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    AndyJS said:

    The Tory benches are looking very glum. So are Labour, but you'd expect that.

    Then they'd better buck themselves up pretty damned fast. Boris has turned their poll ratings around and put them in a winnable position, but they need to get off their arses and campaign like fury if they don't want stupid socialism to be the next phase of British political history.

    This is the big one - they need to fight it as such.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Tory response to labour NHS attacks.........Wales......

    Tory response to labour education attacks......chuffin' Wales......

    Tory response to "what is 2 plus 2?" "4."
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    blueblue said:

    It's not just that the numbers are negative, the unfavourable numbers for both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn are absolute majorities. 40% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Boris Johnson and 53% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Jeremy Corbyn. They are both widely loathed.

    This has major implications for how the general election will play out.

    But to be fair even the relatively-inoffensive Jo is on 30% Very Unfavourable. The current polarization of the electorate and their unwillingness to give opponents the benefit of the doubt would still be there even if the major leaders were not themselves polarizing characters.
    Yes - those figures simply reflect years of dithering from MPs. The public don't discriminate as much as us on here. They're all rotten with JC bottom of the list.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    HYUFD said:

    Given the best PM and leader net favourability ratings are more accurate than straight party voting intention figures historically, yet more evidence if Labour had a more centrist and charismatic leader than Corbyn they could even have won this general election given neither Boris nor Swinson are hugely popular beyond their base but both are still more popular than Corbyn

    I predict that gap will close significantly over the next 45 days.

    Do you not agree?
    Of course - everyone knows clapped-out, far-left losers always do better the second time around... :lol:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Good to see the line of CUK MPs behind the SNP for the final time.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555

    The choice at this election couldn’t be clearer. Our NHS is up for grabs by US corporations in a Trump trade deal. Isn’t the truth that this Conservative government is preparing to sell out our NHS, and our health service is in more danger than ever before? -
    @Jeremycorbyn
    #PMQs

    God not another "24 hours to save the NHS" lie. I suppose he really thinks the voters are idiots.

    And why does he call it "our" NHS? He never refers to "our" Army or "our" police that I've ever heard.

    What an embarrassment that man is. No wonder he is polling disastrously badly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    The figures for Corbyn amongst 2017 Labour voters are quite extraordinarily bad.

    Jo Swinson's ratings amongst 2017 LD voters are also surprisingly poor, with lots of don't knows. 2017 LD voters comprise the party's faithful vote from a time where the party wasn't in great shape, and therefore you might expect them to be more informed about her and more loyal to her than these figures show.

    I think Scot Swinson suffers in England from guilt by association with the lippy SNP in Westminster.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    John Baron MP calls for a One Nation campaign.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Polruan said:

    It's not just that the numbers are negative, the unfavourable numbers for both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn are absolute majorities. 40% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Boris Johnson and 53% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Jeremy Corbyn. They are both widely loathed.

    This has major implications for how the general election will play out.

    It’s worth thinking about in the context of Labour remainers being ‘remain 1st labour 2nd’ and Labour leavers being ‘Labour 1st leave 2nd’ - could reasonably lead to the conclusion that however disliked Corbyn might be, he gets remainer votes if that’s the best choice to pursue remain; conversely leavers are less likely to care enough about leaving to vote for someone as disliked as Johnson. It makes the Tory northern-Labour-leave-seats strategy look challenging.
    I think the Conservative strategy is completely misconceived. If they win an overall majority, it will be despite not because of their strategy.
  • HYUFD said:
    Personal photographer...who does he think he is...David Cameron?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Given the best PM and leader net favourability ratings are more accurate than straight party voting intention figures historically, yet more evidence if Labour had a more centrist and charismatic leader than Corbyn they could even have won this general election given neither Boris nor Swinson are hugely popular beyond their base but both are still more popular than Corbyn

    I predict that gap will close significantly over the next 45 days.

    Do you not agree?
    No as Boris is a far better campaigner than May and Remainers have given up on Corbyn
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    Tory response to labour NHS attacks.........Wales......

    Tory response to labour education attacks......chuffin' Wales......

    I live in Wales and condemn Welsh labour's running of our NHS and the failing education system. I waited 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op, our hospital is in special measures and we cannot even get our flu jabs, even though we are priority patients.

    And don't get me started on education

    Labour need throwing out of Wales
    Blame 25% cuts to Welsh Budgets
  • PMQ s still going on at 1.03

    Over one hour !!!
  • blueblue said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tory benches are looking very glum. So are Labour, but you'd expect that.

    Then they'd better buck themselves up pretty damned fast. Boris has turned their poll ratings around and put them in a winnable position, but they need to get off their arses and campaign like fury if they don't want stupid socialism to be the next phase of British political history.

    This is the big one - they need to fight it as such.
    If socialism is the next phase of British political history it will be the fault of Brexiteers and their gullible followers who have trashed the Tory reputation for sensible politics and economics. Brexit and its swiveleyed adherents is the reason Corbyn has any chance of power.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    The Tory party is morphing, as moderates stand down one after another.

    It is no longer conserving much frankly.

    'tis why I refer to it as the CINO Party. There are many of us who used to be activists and voters who liked having a party that believed in governments that are essentially conservative, not revolutionary, thereby reducing unnecessary upheaval and allowing people to get on with their lives.
    You were clearly more an economic liberal than a conservative anyway, the LDs are welcome to you and your anti Brexit hysteria
  • Tory response to labour NHS attacks.........Wales......

    Tory response to labour education attacks......chuffin' Wales......

    I live in Wales and condemn Welsh labour's running of our NHS and the failing education system. I waited 65 weeks for my bi lateral hernia op, our hospital is in special measures and we cannot even get our flu jabs, even though we are priority patients.

    And don't get me started on education

    Labour need throwing out of Wales
    Blame 25% cuts to Welsh Budgets
    Labour in Wales have the money, they just waste it and do not know how to manage it
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the best PM and leader net favourability ratings are more accurate than straight party voting intention figures historically, yet more evidence if Labour had a more centrist and charismatic leader than Corbyn they could even have won this general election given neither Boris nor Swinson are hugely popular beyond their base but both are still more popular than Corbyn

    I predict that gap will close significantly over the next 45 days.

    Do you not agree?
    No as Boris is a far better campaigner than May and Remainers have given up on Corbyn
    I would agree he is a great repellent! :smiley:
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The Don't Know scores represent a massive opportunity for Swinson. If her 36% don't know breaks half favourable, quarter unfavourable and a quarter still don't know then she moves to 38:53 - almost exactly the same as the PM.

    Oh.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    felix said:

    blueblue said:

    It's not just that the numbers are negative, the unfavourable numbers for both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn are absolute majorities. 40% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Boris Johnson and 53% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Jeremy Corbyn. They are both widely loathed.

    This has major implications for how the general election will play out.

    But to be fair even the relatively-inoffensive Jo is on 30% Very Unfavourable. The current polarization of the electorate and their unwillingness to give opponents the benefit of the doubt would still be there even if the major leaders were not themselves polarizing characters.
    Yes - those figures simply reflect years of dithering from MPs. The public don't discriminate as much as us on here. They're all rotten with JC bottom of the list.
    PB Tory underestimating Corbyn again.

    Jezzas ratings will be better by polling day
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the best PM and leader net favourability ratings are more accurate than straight party voting intention figures historically, yet more evidence if Labour had a more centrist and charismatic leader than Corbyn they could even have won this general election given neither Boris nor Swinson are hugely popular beyond their base but both are still more popular than Corbyn

    I predict that gap will close significantly over the next 45 days.

    Do you not agree?
    No as Boris is a far better campaigner than May and Remainers have given up on Corbyn
    Do you think the Conservatives will win more votes under Johnson than they did under May?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    AndyJS said:

    The Tory benches are looking very glum. So are Labour, but you'd expect that.

    To be fair, any politician facing spending the next five weeks in the cold and wet and dark working themselves flat out to hold onto the job they currently have is hardly likely to be cheerful about it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    My election take –

    I don’t know how much is luck and how much comes courtesy of the Neptune sized brain of Dominic Cummings, but the Cons have got their GE positioning as regards Brexit spot on. Vote for them and you get Brexit done almost immediately and – this is key – with a Deal. Not any old Deal either, but a Boris Deal which has the flavour of True Leave about it. I cannot see why this does not collect up the Leave vote other than hard core Farage fans and those who for tribal reasons simply cannot vote Tory. It will also appeal to agnostics and apoliticals who despite voting Remain in 2016 are suffering from Brexit fatigue and want the whole thing settled just so long as there is no chaotic crash out.

    So, on Brexit, for a Brexit election, the offering is strong and on top of this you have the figure of Boris Johnson. Now I can’t stand him. It’s clear to me that he is an integrity free chancer. The guy is devoid of principles - personal or political - and out purely for himself. But people like me won’t be voting Tory anyway. It would bring me out in a rash. With those that are medically capable of the act my sense is that Johnson will be a net asset. Just because I’m immune does not mean that I fail to recognize his star power. He appeals in particular to people who are not that interested in politics. There are a lot of such people in Britain. In a GE campaign this is gold dust and I expect him to exploit it to the max.

    Conclusion –

    Dec 12th looks and feels to me like a big Tory win. So with all due regard to the technical seat by seat type analysis which says they have a mountain to climb, and to the fact that in 2017 it appeared like a big Tory win too, which did not transpire, that is my prediction. A Conservative overall majority of 60 seats. I will be betting accordingly.

    I am keen to get this said now, get it off my chest, because once the campaign starts I plan to be relentlessly rah rah for Labour – including with predictions – but this here, Cons by 60, unless something contra and significant starts happening with the polls, will be what I really think is going to happen.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    HYUFD said:

    Given the best PM and leader net favourability ratings are more accurate than straight party voting intention figures historically, yet more evidence if Labour had a more centrist and charismatic leader than Corbyn they could even have won this general election given neither Boris nor Swinson are hugely popular beyond their base but both are still more popular than Corbyn

    I predict that gap will close significantly over the next 45 days.

    Do you not agree?
    I predict your total absence from here in the second half of December.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Fishing said:



    God not another "24 hours to save the NHS" lie. I suppose he really thinks the voters are idiots.

    And why does he call it "our" NHS? He never refers to "our" Army or "our" police that I've ever heard.

    What an embarrassment that man is. No wonder he is polling disastrously badly.

    "Our police" took 5 seconds of googling - here's last week's comment:

    https://labour.org.uk/press/jeremy-corbyn-responds-national-knife-crime-crisis/

    and previously

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1159505512997752833?lang=en

    Can't be bothered to go on!
  • Fishing said:



    God not another "24 hours to save the NHS" lie. I suppose he really thinks the voters are idiots.

    And why does he call it "our" NHS? He never refers to "our" Army or "our" police that I've ever heard.

    What an embarrassment that man is. No wonder he is polling disastrously badly.

    "Our police" took 5 seconds of googling - here's last week's comment:

    labour.org.uk/press/jeremy-corbyn-responds-national-knife-crime-crisis/

    and previously

    twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1159505512997752833?lang=en

    Can't be bothered to go on!
    Yeah, but Jezza doesn't write those.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    Polruan said:

    It's not just that the numbers are negative, the unfavourable numbers for both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn are absolute majorities. 40% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Boris Johnson and 53% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Jeremy Corbyn. They are both widely loathed.

    This has major implications for how the general election will play out.

    It’s worth thinking about in the context of Labour remainers being ‘remain 1st labour 2nd’ and Labour leavers being ‘Labour 1st leave 2nd’ - could reasonably lead to the conclusion that however disliked Corbyn might be, he gets remainer votes if that’s the best choice to pursue remain; conversely leavers are less likely to care enough about leaving to vote for someone as disliked as Johnson. It makes the Tory northern-Labour-leave-seats strategy look challenging.
    I think the Conservative strategy is completely misconceived. If they win an overall majority, it will be despite not because of their strategy.
    And their strategy should be what instead? Their current strategy is "Leave with a Deal". That keeps Leavers on side (especially given how well Boris aligns with their emotional side in the culture war), it keeps those pro-economy Tories who might have peeled off to Lib/Lab over fears of No Deal. Meanwhile the LDs hoover up the hardcore Remainers while Labour is left fighting over the scraps with an incoherent message that promises months if not years more of the current paralysis that every voter hates.

    Nothing's perfect, but the overall position could be a lot worse!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    That's a hell of a pub quiz question: for a point each, name the last six UKIP party leaders.....
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    blueblue said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tory benches are looking very glum. So are Labour, but you'd expect that.

    Then they'd better buck themselves up pretty damned fast. Boris has turned their poll ratings around and put them in a winnable position, but they need to get off their arses and campaign like fury if they don't want stupid socialism to be the next phase of British political history.

    This is the big one - they need to fight it as such.
    If socialism is the next phase of British political history it will be the fault of Brexiteers and their gullible followers who have trashed the Tory reputation for sensible politics and economics. Brexit and its swiveleyed adherents is the reason Corbyn has any chance of power.
    +1.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Couple of Tory fanboys on this thread behaving very like Corbynistas, with their "good riddance, you're obviously not a proper Tory" claptrap.

    Be careful what you wish for.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited October 2019

    felix said:

    blueblue said:

    It's not just that the numbers are negative, the unfavourable numbers for both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn are absolute majorities. 40% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Boris Johnson and 53% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Jeremy Corbyn. They are both widely loathed.

    This has major implications for how the general election will play out.

    But to be fair even the relatively-inoffensive Jo is on 30% Very Unfavourable. The current polarization of the electorate and their unwillingness to give opponents the benefit of the doubt would still be there even if the major leaders were not themselves polarizing characters.
    Yes - those figures simply reflect years of dithering from MPs. The public don't discriminate as much as us on here. They're all rotten with JC bottom of the list.
    PB Tory underestimating Corbyn again.

    Jezzas ratings will be better by polling day
    You really are on a roll today BJO.

    Corbyn is toxic and this election will see labour losing seats
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    Fishing said:

    The choice at this election couldn’t be clearer. Our NHS is up for grabs by US corporations in a Trump trade deal. Isn’t the truth that this Conservative government is preparing to sell out our NHS, and our health service is in more danger than ever before? -
    @Jeremycorbyn
    #PMQs

    God not another "24 hours to save the NHS" lie. I suppose he really thinks the voters are idiots.

    And why does he call it "our" NHS? He never refers to "our" Army or "our" police that I've ever heard.

    What an embarrassment that man is. No wonder he is polling disastrously badly.
    Labour will always retreat to the NHS comfort blanket. I do expect some of their attack lines to resonate, though.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Tory PM invites Tory Swinson to join the Tories
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    edited October 2019

    The Tory party is morphing, as moderates stand down one after another.

    It is no longer conserving much frankly.

    The ones replacing them are pretty fine candidates, from what I'm seeing.

    We've got a great one in Totnes.
    Sarah Wollaston may prove to be more popular than you think, she was, after all, selected by all the constituencies voters in an open primary.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the best PM and leader net favourability ratings are more accurate than straight party voting intention figures historically, yet more evidence if Labour had a more centrist and charismatic leader than Corbyn they could even have won this general election given neither Boris nor Swinson are hugely popular beyond their base but both are still more popular than Corbyn

    I predict that gap will close significantly over the next 45 days.

    Do you not agree?
    No as Boris is a far better campaigner than May and Remainers have given up on Corbyn
    Any evidence for the second part of that (I think we can agree on the first part)? In 2017 remainers backed Labour in 2 way races versus Tories because they offered the softer Brexit position of the two and held out some hope it wouldn’t happen. This time Labour’s position is more remainy not less. I can’t see voters who prioritise stopping Brexit indulging themselves in an ideologically pure Lib Dem vote and risking gifting Johnson another seat.

    It will hurt Labour a lot in seats where the Tories are in 3rd place and can’t come through the middle, but that doesn’t help Johnson find a majority.
  • twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1189528242702766081

    Does he manage a tweet without dropping the f bomb?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    IanB2 said:

    I do hope that SeanT and Byronic managed to meet up for lunch together in New Orleans.

    I wish people would rebadge themselves a bit more thoughtfully. I get an Alanis bloody Morissette earworm for the rest of the day every time I read "Byronic."
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    felix said:

    blueblue said:

    It's not just that the numbers are negative, the unfavourable numbers for both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn are absolute majorities. 40% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Boris Johnson and 53% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Jeremy Corbyn. They are both widely loathed.

    This has major implications for how the general election will play out.

    But to be fair even the relatively-inoffensive Jo is on 30% Very Unfavourable. The current polarization of the electorate and their unwillingness to give opponents the benefit of the doubt would still be there even if the major leaders were not themselves polarizing characters.
    Yes - those figures simply reflect years of dithering from MPs. The public don't discriminate as much as us on here. They're all rotten with JC bottom of the list.
    PB Tory underestimating Corbyn again.

    Jezzas ratings will be better by polling day
    For his ratings to be _worse_ by polling day he'd have to starting spit-roasting Labradors on live TV, so that's not exactly a huge claim...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited October 2019

    blueblue said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tory benches are looking very glum. So are Labour, but you'd expect that.

    Then they'd better buck themselves up pretty damned fast. Boris has turned their poll ratings around and put them in a winnable position, but they need to get off their arses and campaign like fury if they don't want stupid socialism to be the next phase of British political history.

    This is the big one - they need to fight it as such.
    If socialism is the next phase of British political history it will be the fault of Brexiteers and their gullible followers who have trashed the Tory reputation for sensible politics and economics. Brexit and its swiveleyed adherents is the reason Corbyn has any chance of power.
    Rubbish, Boris and delivering Brexit is the main reason the Tories may stay in power.

    If the Tories went on more austerity with Hammond or Hunt and no Brexit or BINO Corbyn would win.

    As recent elections prove it is the populist right that wins at the moment e.g. Trump, Salvini, Modi, Bolsonaro, Morrison etc.

    If the centre right goes too much on austerity and no populism it fails to win or loses e.g. Romney, Turnbull, May, Fillon, Canada and Scheer, Argentina even Germany and Merkel now
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Well if the next 45 days go like today I will be happy

    The blustering PM really is hopeless

    Agree. With the Conservatives in power and Labour in opposition. Both sides happy.
  • Anorak said:

    Couple of Tory fanboys on this thread behaving very like Corbynistas, with their "good riddance, you're obviously not a proper Tory" claptrap.

    Be careful what you wish for.

    Not this one
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    HYUFD said:

    The Tory party is morphing, as moderates stand down one after another.

    It is no longer conserving much frankly.

    'tis why I refer to it as the CINO Party. There are many of us who used to be activists and voters who liked having a party that believed in governments that are essentially conservative, not revolutionary, thereby reducing unnecessary upheaval and allowing people to get on with their lives.
    You were clearly more an economic liberal than a conservative anyway, the LDs are welcome to you and your anti Brexit hysteria
    You succumbed to your anti-Brexit hysteria in the polling booth in 2016 and, as you are we know a man of honour and integrity, have not changed your position since. You think Brexit is a bad idea.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Boris says to Tory Swinson

    "She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"

    She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    edited October 2019
    Fishing said:

    The choice at this election couldn’t be clearer. Our NHS is up for grabs by US corporations in a Trump trade deal. Isn’t the truth that this Conservative government is preparing to sell out our NHS, and our health service is in more danger than ever before? -
    @Jeremycorbyn
    #PMQs

    God not another "24 hours to save the NHS" lie. I suppose he really thinks the voters are idiots.

    And why does he call it "our" NHS? He never refers to "our" Army or "our" police that I've ever heard.

    What an embarrassment that man is. No wonder he is polling disastrously badly.
    Priti Patel on 17 Aug this year:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/17/make-sure-heroic-police-officers-get-protection-deserve/

    "I'll make sure our heroic police officers get the protection they deserve."

    And Johnson himself on 4 July:

    https://www.facebook.com/borisjohnson/posts/honoured-to-have-secured-the-backing-of-the-majority-of-our-conservative-police-/10156544463661317/

    As PM, I'll back our police to the hilt with more powers and resources.
  • HYUFD said:

    The Tory party is morphing, as moderates stand down one after another.

    It is no longer conserving much frankly.

    'tis why I refer to it as the CINO Party. There are many of us who used to be activists and voters who liked having a party that believed in governments that are essentially conservative, not revolutionary, thereby reducing unnecessary upheaval and allowing people to get on with their lives.
    You were clearly more an economic liberal than a conservative anyway, the LDs are welcome to you and your anti Brexit hysteria
    Well, with your monochrome, simplistic idea of what a Conservative is, and your sycophantic and pathetically unquestioning approach to everything that comes from Dominic Cummings, I am not surprised at your infantile view. I was tramping the streets and campaigning for the Conservatives when muppets like you were still popping spots on the mirror and wondering why you couldn't attract girls.

    As to hysteria I leave that to the swiveleyed nutters that you, in your silly, puerile unquestioning manner, have now aligned yourself to. With respect to the CINO Party, you are welcome to it and the dregs and boneheads that are now left in it.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    Couple of Tory fanboys on this thread behaving very like Corbynistas, with their "good riddance, you're obviously not a proper Tory" claptrap.

    Be careful what you wish for.

    Not this one
    No, not you, Big G.

    Purity over a broad church feels good at the time, but it's a very poor long-term strategy, as Labour polling shows.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    kinabalu said:

    My election take –

    I don’t know how much is luck and how much comes courtesy of the Neptune sized brain of Dominic Cummings, but the Cons have got their GE positioning as regards Brexit spot on. Vote for them and you get Brexit done almost immediately and – this is key – with a Deal. Not any old Deal either, but a Boris Deal which has the flavour of True Leave about it. I cannot see why this does not collect up the Leave vote other than hard core Farage fans and those who for tribal reasons simply cannot vote Tory. It will also appeal to agnostics and apoliticals who despite voting Remain in 2016 are suffering from Brexit fatigue and want the whole thing settled just so long as there is no chaotic crash out.

    So, on Brexit, for a Brexit election, the offering is strong and on top of this you have the figure of Boris Johnson. Now I can’t stand him. It’s clear to me that he is an integrity free chancer. The guy is devoid of principles - personal or political - and out purely for himself. But people like me won’t be voting Tory anyway. It would bring me out in a rash. With those that are medically capable of the act my sense is that Johnson will be a net asset. Just because I’m immune does not mean that I fail to recognize his star power. He appeals in particular to people who are not that interested in politics. There are a lot of such people in Britain. In a GE campaign this is gold dust and I expect him to exploit it to the max.

    Conclusion –

    Dec 12th looks and feels to me like a big Tory win. So with all due regard to the technical seat by seat type analysis which says they have a mountain to climb, and to the fact that in 2017 it appeared like a big Tory win too, which did not transpire, that is my prediction. A Conservative overall majority of 60 seats. I will be betting accordingly.

    I am keen to get this said now, get it off my chest, because once the campaign starts I plan to be relentlessly rah rah for Labour – including with predictions – but this here, Cons by 60, unless something contra and significant starts happening with the polls, will be what I really think is going to happen.

    I have predicted a shellacking for Corbyn on here in recent months, but I'm now not so sure. Everything is so uncertain, and I think the Cummings strategy of ditching southern seats in exchange for possible wins in Warrington and so on, is a leap of faith. The Tories will lose seats in Scotland, which they may make up in Wales, but again - feels like a leap of faith to me.

    If I am asked to predict I am now saying very little will change and we are looking at another minority government.

    I predict a rerun in March.
  • Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Couple of Tory fanboys on this thread behaving very like Corbynistas, with their "good riddance, you're obviously not a proper Tory" claptrap.

    Be careful what you wish for.

    Not this one
    No, not you, Big G.

    Purity over a broad church feels good at the time, but it's a very poor long-term strategy, as Labour polling shows.
    Indeed
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Boris says to Tory Swinson

    "She should join this Party vote for this Government and support us at the General Election"

    She sat there nodding along to his answer. Extraordinary.

    You’re obsessed.
  • kinabalu said:

    My election take –

    I don’t know how much is luck and how much comes courtesy of the Neptune sized brain of Dominic Cummings, but the Cons have got their GE positioning as regards Brexit spot on. Vote for them and you get Brexit done almost immediately and – this is key – with a Deal. Not any old Deal either, but a Boris Deal which has the flavour of True Leave about it. I cannot see why this does not collect up the Leave vote other than hard core Farage fans and those who for tribal reasons simply cannot vote Tory. It will also appeal to agnostics and apoliticals who despite voting Remain in 2016 are suffering from Brexit fatigue and want the whole thing settled just so long as there is no chaotic crash out.

    So, on Brexit, for a Brexit election, the offering is strong and on top of this you have the figure of Boris Johnson. Now I can’t stand him. It’s clear to me that he is an integrity free chancer. The guy is devoid of principles - personal or political - and out purely for himself. But people like me won’t be voting Tory anyway. It would bring me out in a rash. With those that are medically capable of the act my sense is that Johnson will be a net asset. Just because I’m immune does not mean that I fail to recognize his star power. He appeals in particular to people who are not that interested in politics. There are a lot of such people in Britain. In a GE campaign this is gold dust and I expect him to exploit it to the max.

    Conclusion –

    Dec 12th looks and feels to me like a big Tory win. So with all due regard to the technical seat by seat type analysis which says they have a mountain to climb, and to the fact that in 2017 it appeared like a big Tory win too, which did not transpire, that is my prediction. A Conservative overall majority of 60 seats. I will be betting accordingly.

    I am keen to get this said now, get it off my chest, because once the campaign starts I plan to be relentlessly rah rah for Labour – including with predictions – but this here, Cons by 60, unless something contra and significant starts happening with the polls, will be what I really think is going to happen.

    I have predicted a shellacking for Corbyn on here in recent months, but I'm now not so sure. Everything is so uncertain, and I think the Cummings strategy of ditching southern seats in exchange for possible wins in Warrington and so on, is a leap of faith. The Tories will lose seats in Scotland, which they may make up in Wales, but again - feels like a leap of faith to me.

    If I am asked to predict I am now saying very little will change and we are looking at another minority government.

    I predict a rerun in March.
    My thoughts too. Maybe, as I said the other day, we will now be having annual GEs!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    GE election campaigning could begin on Friday.

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1189531731365421056
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1189528242702766081

    Does he manage a tweet without dropping the f bomb?
    Ian Dunt is mentally ill. Why should he care about the Tory party anyway? he hates them with every fibre of his being
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    edited October 2019

    kinabalu said:

    My election take –

    I don’t know how much is luck and how much comes courtesy of the Neptune sized brain of Dominic Cummings, but the Cons have got their GE positioning as regards Brexit spot on. Vote for them and you get Brexit done almost immediately and – this is key – with a Deal. Not any old Deal either, but a Boris Deal which has the flavour of True Leave about it. I cannot see why this does not collect up the Leave vote other than hard core Farage fans and those who for tribal reasons simply cannot vote Tory. It will also appeal to agnostics and apoliticals who despite voting Remain in 2016 are suffering from Brexit fatigue and want the whole thing settled just so long as there is no chaotic crash out.

    With those that are medically capable of the act my sense is that Johnson will be a net asset. Just because I’m immune does not mean that I fail to recognize his star power. He appeals in particular to people who are not that interested in politics. There are a lot of such people in Britain. In a GE campaign this is gold dust and I expect him to exploit it to the max.

    Conclusion –

    Dec 12th looks and feels to me like a big Tory win. So with all due regard to the technical seat by seat type analysis which says they have a mountain to climb, and to the fact that in 2017 it appeared like a big Tory win too, which did not transpire, that is my prediction. A Conservative overall majority of 60 seats. I will be betting accordingly.

    I am keen to get this said now, get it off my chest, because once the campaign starts I plan to be relentlessly rah rah for Labour – including with predictions – but this here, Cons by 60, unless something contra and significant starts happening with the polls, will be what I really think is going to happen.

    I have predicted a shellacking for Corbyn on here in recent months, but I'm now not so sure. Everything is so uncertain, and I think the Cummings strategy of ditching southern seats in exchange for possible wins in Warrington and so on, is a leap of faith. The Tories will lose seats in Scotland, which they may make up in Wales, but again - feels like a leap of faith to me.

    If I am asked to predict I am now saying very little will change and we are looking at another minority government.

    I predict a rerun in March.
    In what way are southern seats being ditched other than by the Tories saying "We want to leave with a Deal"? Or to put it another way, how could those seats be saved in the current political environment?

    Southern seats aren't going to like Labour's confiscatory socialism too much, remember!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    If Johnson doesn't win this election that's a possible future for the Conservative Party, riven with infighting, fighting battles of the past, ignored by the rest of the country.

    If he wins and can get Brexit, in whatever form with some sort of trade agreement with the EU settled and it's not an economic disaster, so that it becomes the status quo, then there's a good chance the Conservative Party can recover and heal.

    If a Brexit imposed by a Johnson government is a disaster, and is then overturned by a different government, then I think you would see infighting over returning to true Brexit.

    Johnson has to not just get Brexit done, but he has to get Brexit done right.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Tory HQ giving Amber Rudd the HY treatment and telling her where she can go....
  • Any announcement if the Speaker Election is postponed until after the election? It should be.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    blueblue said:

    felix said:

    blueblue said:

    It's not just that the numbers are negative, the unfavourable numbers for both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn are absolute majorities. 40% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Boris Johnson and 53% of respondents have a very unfavourable opinion of Jeremy Corbyn. They are both widely loathed.

    This has major implications for how the general election will play out.

    But to be fair even the relatively-inoffensive Jo is on 30% Very Unfavourable. The current polarization of the electorate and their unwillingness to give opponents the benefit of the doubt would still be there even if the major leaders were not themselves polarizing characters.
    Yes - those figures simply reflect years of dithering from MPs. The public don't discriminate as much as us on here. They're all rotten with JC bottom of the list.
    PB Tory underestimating Corbyn again.

    Jezzas ratings will be better by polling day
    For his ratings to be _worse_ by polling day he'd have to starting spit-roasting Labradors on live TV, so that's not exactly a huge claim...
    LOL
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    blueblue said:

    In what way are southern seats being ditched other than by the Tories saying "We want to leave with a Deal"? Or to put it another way, how could those seats be saved in the current political environment?

    By ratifying the deal instead of cutting and running with an election?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    Tory PM invites Tory Swinson to join the Tories

    Thanks for that, Marxist propagandist. :smile:
  • IanB2 said:

    Tory HQ giving Amber Rudd the HY treatment and telling her where she can go....

    I regret that. I liked Amber
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    Fishing said:



    God not another "24 hours to save the NHS" lie. I suppose he really thinks the voters are idiots.

    And why does he call it "our" NHS? He never refers to "our" Army or "our" police that I've ever heard.

    What an embarrassment that man is. No wonder he is polling disastrously badly.

    "Our police" took 5 seconds of googling - here's last week's comment:

    labour.org.uk/press/jeremy-corbyn-responds-national-knife-crime-crisis/

    and previously

    twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1159505512997752833?lang=en

    Can't be bothered to go on!
    Yeah, but Jezza doesn't write those.
    Very weak FU.
This discussion has been closed.