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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Things that nobody knows. What to watch out for in the coming
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Things that nobody knows. What to watch out for in the coming election
Nobody knows anything. The results of the last two general elections and the referendum result have all come as a major surprise to all the wiseacres (including me). So it is time for a little humility and to think about some of the things we don’t yet know about this election. Here are a few.
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If you knew that already please accept my apologies, but it was a teaching moment and I thought other readers may appreciate the lesson."
Yes, I did know that already - I was teasing isam.
But seriously I`m reluctant to trade out of bets on the thinking that you are paying the bookie`s turn twice. Betfair heavily promotes its cashout facility as it is very lucrative.
I`m happy to be educated otherwise on this point.
If they were to win any seats, which would be the most likely ? Alastair previously suggetsed they would win 4, and apparently 0 is better than evens, which suggest that the bookies think they will win at least one. If so which is the most likely candidate ?
But being serious, but assumptions at the start of the campaign are
1) I think more of the Labour ones will return than the Tories - the consequences of failure are higher
2] I think they will.
3) I think it will be a trend, and more effective than last time.
4) Agreed, and they will have limited increases as a result.
5) Depends how many seats they stand in. If it is a lot, they will cost the Tories the election. The deal is not exactly enthused over, and people love a simple rejection of the complex.
6) Depends on the seat and if someone is a remainer who hates both or a leaver who hates both. Corbyn's apparent weakness within his own party might be come to be seen as a strength as his personal issues will seem less problematic.
7) Wales will look like the Tories making a breakthrough, but won't.
You're right about the cashout, particularly in a market with many variables (the Democratic nomination one, for example). Far better to determine you own lays on a case by case basis.
3 doesn’t feel right to me. In a Brexit election I would expect the trend to continue, reflecting the replacement of class with age/education as the principal driver of voting behaviour. I would be amazed if swings are remotely uniform this time.
On 4 I would expect swings in a pattern broadly the reverse of 2015. The LibDems will have big upside in areas of precious strength where they fell to third post-coalition. I’d also expect some big surges in Central and Inner London - the risk here is that these extra votes are wasted.
LibDem success depends not only on their share rising but the Tories need to take a knock too, at least in the south, for them to start winning seats. This plays into 6.
I would add an eighth known unknown:
- will Corbyn outperform as he did in 2017 or continue the collapse that we've seen this year?
It's partly, but not explicitly, covered in 6).
And a ninth:
- to what extent will there be a Swinsgasm if the Lib Dems get more publicity during the campaign?
Also partly covered in 4).
Moderately.
Regarding BXP - I think they're far more likely to poll single digits than high teens, primarily scooping up Leavers who would never under any circumstances vote Tory.
May sound cold hearted but I frankly don't think many BXP voters give a shit about NI being cut adrift so long as they get out.
Discuss.
This is a face saving attempt to suggest its your idea. When ever Arron Banks isn't backing the BXP it is dead and buried already whatever they say.
For the Tories it feels much harder to judge. There is a good chunk of support, including former members, even MPs, who don't feel they can vote for a party that's swapped economic rationalism for populist nationalism. On the other hand there's a chunk of hard brexiters who seem to be happy with Boris's deal. Which of those groups is bigger?
The Tories could take a third of the Labour 2017 Leave vote and win a hat full.
The bet I did not make.
Incidentally, if Farage says to two hundred people "Bog off, I've decided you can't stand. Soz, xxx Nige", are they just going to do so or will they stand anyway?
And...what about Jay Aston?
2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority
2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament
Explains why I'm so bullish on Trump this time.
#FightingTheLastWar
2017 - Vile authoritarian May as leader = Hung Parliament
2019 - Modern liberal Boris as Tory leader = ???
I agree on the second point.
2017 - Vile authoritarian Remainer May as leader = Hung Parliament
2019 - Modern liberal Brexiteer Boris as Tory leader = ???
That said it would presumably drive off other voters, and I would have though Boris would like to be able to position himself as between a manufactured choice of Farage on one extreme and Remain on the other. I’d think that’s the best way to make Farage a “used to be Labour but..” depository.
A soft pedalled BXP helps the Tories overall though I think.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-2019-boris-johnson-and-jeremy-corbyn-in-nhs-war-of-words-on-day-one-of-campaign-a4274466.html
Before withdrawing from the race, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand went on television to apologise for using the term "illegal alien" in the past.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50239261
Isn't illegal alien the bloody legal definition in the US of somebody not born in the US there illegally? Not quite the same as pretending you are native American, and by doing so further your academic career, only to find you ain't much more native American than the average man in the street.
They have a few well known names the media just love - Claire Fox, Annunziata, Widdicome (Kate Hoey....???), and Nige himself.
Widders/Hoey/Fox versus Cooper in Normanton,the media would be all over it.
Con Seats and Lab seats are both up, so there's no excuse for Con-Lab supremacy to be suspended other than an attempt to get double house margin out of people who really want to place that bet.
Boris Johnson was aware there was a potential conflict of interest in his relationship with Jennifer Arcuri, the US businesswoman has claimed, on the eve of the publication of an inquiry into how she secured a £100,000 government grant.
In an interview for Bloomberg Businessweek, Arcuri also said that a senior official at the then London mayor’s promotional agency London & Partners (L&P) was renting a room in her Shoreditch live/work space in 2013. Around that time Johnson visited Arcuri in the property and the agency was sponsoring her events.
In a further embarrassment to the prime minister, Arcuri said Johnson was aware of her business links to the former city trader and Libor-rigger, Tom Hayes.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/boris-johnson-knew-of-potential-conflict-of-interest-says-jennifer-arcuri?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Otherwise they should rename themselves the No Deal Party.
If they do withdraw in most constituencies, I'd say a working Con Maj is highly likely.
PM Boris until 2023-4 at least.
Come on Jez!
Huge bonus for the Tories if so.
If they are legitimate Tory targets then the news is not so good.
And doubly ironic if in practice BXP would have taken more votes from Labour
I can't help thinking that the Brexit Party's residual vote at the moment is Labour leaning leavers. The Tory inclined leavers have already gone home. So if the TBP pull candidates I think it will help Labour rather than the Tories. (Good prediction - it can't be falsified.)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7631261/Russian-actress-dragged-flight-branding-fellow-passengers-plebs.html
She's quite right, got to keep the riff raff out of business class.... especially two bit celebs.
As you're all making the same point I'll very seriously reconsider whether to back it, and there's every chance I'll be thanking you for £5 saved in the new year.
In December 2006 I drove to Liverpool in bad weather to watch the match only to see it postponed, and then we lost the rescheduled match 6-3.
Do we know from YouGov crosstabs who current TBP supporters voted for in 2017, for example?