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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A CON majority drops out of the GE2019 betting favourite slot

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A CON majority drops out of the GE2019 betting favourite slot following Farage’s campaign threat

Ever since a 2019 general election became a certainty punters made a CON majority the favourite outcome touching nearly a 60% chance on the Betfair according to the betdata.io chart.

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Comments

  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    first?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    It's an offer designed to be refused IMO. Farage - like Corbyn and Johnson - actually enjoys campaigning, and I never thought he'd tamely agree to fight a few Humberside seats and call it a day.

    He remains a good, clear speaker - the only real asset the BXP have. I struggle to remember a single name in their ranks apart from Ann Widdecombe.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    Farage has said it publicly now, I can't see him pulling out of seats if he has candidates.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300

    It's an offer designed to be refused IMO. Farage - like Corbyn and Johnson - actually enjoys campaigning, and I never thought he'd tamely agree to fight a few Humberside seats and call it a day.

    He remains a good, clear speaker - the only real asset the BXP have. I struggle to remember a single name in their ranks apart from Ann Widdecombe.

    indeed. The Brexit party should really be called The Farage Party
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    The Tories should not worry about Farage, the Tories already have a majority in most polls with the Brexit Party included and indeed the Brexit Party will pick up some Labour votes in working class Labour Leave seats the Tories are targeting too
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    November 14th, not December I think.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049
    @Big G and Philip Thomson,

    Can you please stop this nonsense about Corbyn being an anti semite- he's been hopeless at dealing with some of the anti zionists headbangers in his party, and he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace- but he is not an anti-semite.....

    Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
  • tyson said:

    @Big G and Philip Thomson,

    Can you please stop this nonsense about Corbyn being an anti semite- he's been hopeless at dealing with some of the anti zionists headbangers in his party, and he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace- but he is not an anti-semite.....

    Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong

    "he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace"

    that, sir, is doing a LOT of heavy lifting.



  • Jeremy Corbyn is not just anti-semitic but he's actively helped make the Labour party increasingly anti-semitic w

    Unless its all just an accident, a result of his "dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace" ...

    ...

    wat

    ...

    well, when you put it like that!
  • HYUFD said:

    The Tories should not worry about Farage, the Tories already have a majority in most polls with the Brexit Party included and indeed the Brexit Party will pick up some Labour votes in working class Labour Leave seats the Tories are targeting too

    That does underplay the fact Farage has been pretty invisible since the Boris deal. He'll get more airtime now, and if his line is "sell-out Boris let us down", it gives those on the "screw everything" wing somewhere to go which remains clearly anti-establishment.

    I'd be surprised if BXP won even one seat; certainly no more than low single figures. But it could play havoc in dozens of close constituencies where traditional loyalties were already pretty scrambled. The effect won't all be anti-Tory, but my guess is a majority will be.
  • Should the UK eventually stay in the EU, following a GE which failed to deliver for the Conservatives after they bled too many votes to the Brexit Party, today will I think be remembered as the turning point with Farage seen as the architect.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    @HYUFD will be pleased that diehard remainer is now where he belongs.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,182
    When people keep saying that this is the most uncertain election they can remember, perhaps we should believe them. Corbyn and Johnson are both loathed. The Lib Dems could get 20 seats or 120. The SNP 25 or 50.

    But one thing we can guarantee is that Farage will get none. Yet TBP Ltd gets 7-10% then they are the referendum party of 2019, so just maybe we could see BoJo, Baker and Rees Mogg lose, and lets face it those particular Portillo moments would be especially satisfying...
  • Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300

    Should the UK eventually stay in the EU, following a GE which failed to deliver for the Conservatives after they bled too many votes to the Brexit Party, today will I think be remembered as the turning point with Farage seen as the architect.

    I honestly believe that Farage doesn't actually want us to leave the EU as it'll end his raison d'etre.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    You rattled?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    It's an offer designed to be refused IMO. Farage - like Corbyn and Johnson - actually enjoys campaigning, and I never thought he'd tamely agree to fight a few Humberside seats and call it a day.

    He remains a good, clear speaker - the only real asset the BXP have. I struggle to remember a single name in their ranks apart from Ann Widdecombe.

    Its very hard to see why BXP might want to run in generally safe Tory seats. They've got an undoubted preference, one presumes, for the GE to yield Tory MPs rather than Labour MPs, and certainly no other options.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    Cicero said:

    When people keep saying that this is the most uncertain election they can remember, perhaps we should believe them. Corbyn and Johnson are both loathed. The Lib Dems could get 20 seats or 120. The SNP 25 or 50.

    But one thing we can guarantee is that Farage will get none. Yet TBP Ltd gets 7-10% then they are the referendum party of 2019, so just maybe we could see BoJo, Baker and Rees Mogg lose, and lets face it those particular Portillo moments would be especially satisfying...

    That's why I've booked 13th December off work. just so I can be awake for the next 'ed balls' moment.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Omnium said:

    It's an offer designed to be refused IMO. Farage - like Corbyn and Johnson - actually enjoys campaigning, and I never thought he'd tamely agree to fight a few Humberside seats and call it a day.

    He remains a good, clear speaker - the only real asset the BXP have. I struggle to remember a single name in their ranks apart from Ann Widdecombe.

    Its very hard to see why BXP might want to run in generally safe Tory seats. They've got an undoubted preference, one presumes, for the GE to yield Tory MPs rather than Labour MPs, and certainly no other options.
    Running in safe seats is not the problem for the Tories of course. Farage's faux offer though was incredibly transparently designed to be refused, but has done its job in diverting the Tories from their main task. Start crowdfunding those 'Nigel Farage: Saviour of Remain' statues.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Re your Munich killers comment surely you know its a lie

    It is untrue.

    Corbyn did indeed attend a wreath-lying ceremony in 2014 where victims of the 1985 Israeli airstrike against the headquarters of the Palestine Liberation Organisation in Tunis were remembered – an attack that had been condemned at the time by the UN and by Margaret Thatcher. The attack killed around 50 people, mostly Palestinians, and injured many more.



    While wreaths may also have been laid at other graves, Corbyn did not participate in these ceremonies. Nor are any of the graves those of Munich perpetrators, who are mostly buried in Libya. None is buried in Tunis.

    The Labour Party has lodged a formal complaint with IPSO, the body that passes for a regulator for the main press titles, about the ‘MSM’s misrepresentation of Jeremy Corbyn’s 2014 visit to the Hammam Chott Palestinian cemetery in Tunis’.

    I trust you know what happened to that complaint:

    https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/labour-drops-complaint-against-six-newspapers-over-corbyn-wreath-coverage-after-email-leak-unacceptably-compromised-ipso-process/
    Worth seeing this again, after poor bjo thought 'Labour has lodged a complaint' was a killer retort.
  • Omnium said:

    It's an offer designed to be refused IMO. Farage - like Corbyn and Johnson - actually enjoys campaigning, and I never thought he'd tamely agree to fight a few Humberside seats and call it a day.

    He remains a good, clear speaker - the only real asset the BXP have. I struggle to remember a single name in their ranks apart from Ann Widdecombe.

    Its very hard to see why BXP might want to run in generally safe Tory seats. They've got an undoubted preference, one presumes, for the GE to yield Tory MPs rather than Labour MPs, and certainly no other options.
    Isn't it just a case of optimizing the Brexit brand, which is in effect the Farage band?

    More votes means more kudos, power, merchandising etc.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    spudgfsh said:

    Should the UK eventually stay in the EU, following a GE which failed to deliver for the Conservatives after they bled too many votes to the Brexit Party, today will I think be remembered as the turning point with Farage seen as the architect.

    I honestly believe that Farage doesn't actually want us to leave the EU as it'll end his raison d'etre.
    Either he really doesn't want to leave or he is the the most stubborn leaver in existence, who really does believe that remaining is better than all but his one single option.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 405



    That does underplay the fact Farage has been pretty invisible since the Boris deal. He'll get more airtime now, and if his line is "sell-out Boris let us down", it gives those on the "screw everything" wing somewhere to go which remains clearly anti-establishment.
    .

    It's clearly not consistent with the spirit of our electoral laws that the leader of a national party should have his own opinionating programme on what's now a major national radio station during an election. Even if he's not standing himself

    But does anyone know whether our laws specifically require his programme to be taken off air?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    'Drop the deal you have staked your political reputation and career on and we can be allies'. Yes, that was quite the deal that was offered :)
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited November 2019


    There are some other interesting constituency predictions doing the rounds eg kensington wth Lib Dems in MOE tie with con
  • Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.
  • tyson said:

    @Big G and Philip Thomson,

    Can you please stop this nonsense about Corbyn being an anti semite- he's been hopeless at dealing with some of the anti zionists headbangers in his party, and he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace- but he is not an anti-semite.....

    Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong

    "he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace"

    that, sir, is doing a LOT of heavy lifting.



    Although I am not Jewish' I went to a school in London where about one third of the pupils were and I remain friends with many. I have to tell you that many of them and their families are now are very frightened of Corbyn and the current Labour Party and loathe him personally.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    FPT

    Stocky said:

    bigjohnowls said: "Cant be right Tory Swinson going backwards quicker than an Italian tank"

    Why are you calling her "Tory Swinson". I think she is on the left of the LibDems - certainly further to the left than Ed Davey. This was why I favoured Davey over her in the leadership contest.

    Because of her voting record. Followed the Tory whip more often than both Gove and Hunt.
    It’s worth pointing out Corbyn has followed the Tory whip more often than any of them...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    tyson said:

    @Big G and Philip Thomson,

    Can you please stop this nonsense about Corbyn being an anti semite- he's been hopeless at dealing with some of the anti zionists headbangers in his party, and he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace- but he is not an anti-semite.....

    Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong

    The thing about Labour voters is, they just don’t get English irony...
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    it's all about visibility. it's been all Johnson and Farage today and Johnson and Corbyn for the last couple of weeks. once the election proper starts next week they'll get more coverage and a boost. (at least that's what has happened in most of the recent elections)
  • Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...
    I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.

    Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    edited November 2019
    There's really no reason for the Brexit Party to stand at all. A single issue party to support Brexit is going to take voters disproportionately from the only party who will ever pass it. Arguments about the form of Brexit we take are still up for grabs after the withdrawal agreement passes.

    The Tories not getting a majority and the Brexit Party not winning a seat could really change the narrative. Having said that the Tories seem to be successfully squeezing the Brexit Party at the moment and the Brexit Party will be totally sidelined on all non-Brexit issues.
  • Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...
    I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.

    Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
    The Tories will not lose 40 seats to the LDs they will pick up 40 to 50 Labour seats, in London and the Midlands and Wales as well as the North, helped by Labour voters going LD and Brexit Party
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    No evidence I would suggest far to early to make any predictions but on current evidence it’s a hung parliament to 120 seat majority for Alexander.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    If Johnson allows the debate to deviate from the EU and voters go back to where they were just five years ago-the EU's importance was somewhere between 'Country Life and Animal welfare in the Ipsos Mori index-then Johnson's Tories could be screwed.

    It's an uphill job for Corbyn but six weeks is a long time and with nothing material happening on the EU front it should be doable. A flu outbreak would help.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,776

    Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    Does anyone actually read Matthew Parris any more?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    I haven't seen much evidence the LDs are slipping.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...
    I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.

    Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
    Interested to see your list of 30-40 LibDem pick-ups.....
  • HYUFD said:

    The Tories should not worry about Farage, the Tories already have a majority in most polls with the Brexit Party included and indeed the Brexit Party will pick up some Labour votes in working class Labour Leave seats the Tories are targeting too

    That does underplay the fact Farage has been pretty invisible since the Boris deal. He'll get more airtime now, and if his line is "sell-out Boris let us down", it gives those on the "screw everything" wing somewhere to go which remains clearly anti-establishment.

    I'd be surprised if BXP won even one seat; certainly no more than low single figures. But it could play havoc in dozens of close constituencies where traditional loyalties were already pretty scrambled. The effect won't all be anti-Tory, but my guess is a majority will be.
    UKIP received about 13% of the vote in 2015 and won one MP, though that was only one of the two that had defected to them. Their opinion poll range was 7-13% in October, so they have some way to go to reach the polling levels that would win them a few seats.

    However, I do recall that, before British politics became absurdly volatile, a pattern was discerned whereby the Liberal Democrat polling share improved on mid-term polling levels during an election campaign, because they benefited from the extra exposure. It's possible that the Brexit Party will similarly benefit in this campaign, but they will have to work hard to avoid being squeezed.
  • Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...
    I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.

    Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
    I see no evidence from the polls or council by elections or even anecdotal that the LDs are going to pick up 30-40 seats in the commuter belt and SW from the Tories.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Omnium said:

    It's an offer designed to be refused IMO. Farage - like Corbyn and Johnson - actually enjoys campaigning, and I never thought he'd tamely agree to fight a few Humberside seats and call it a day.

    He remains a good, clear speaker - the only real asset the BXP have. I struggle to remember a single name in their ranks apart from Ann Widdecombe.

    Its very hard to see why BXP might want to run in generally safe Tory seats. They've got an undoubted preference, one presumes, for the GE to yield Tory MPs rather than Labour MPs, and certainly no other options.
    Isn't it just a case of optimizing the Brexit brand, which is in effect the Farage band?

    More votes means more kudos, power, merchandising etc.
    Farage is a politician who became so simply because he believed in one thing. He's not going to stray from that core idea.

    Other politicians entered the fray because they wanted to be politicians.

    So, no, Farage isn't likely to suffer a great deal of mission-creep until Brexit is done. After that though I think he'll wander off and say some sensible things, but on the fringes of politics. He's not David Icke.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Artist said:

    There's really no reason for the Brexit Party to stand at all. A single issue party to support Brexit is going to take voters disproportionately from the only party who will ever pass it. Arguments about the form of Brexit we take are still up for grabs after the withdrawal agreement passes.

    The Tories not getting a majority and the Brexit Party not winning a seat could really change the narrative. Having said that the Tories seem to be successfully squeezing the Brexit Party at the moment and the Brexit Party will be totally sidelined on all non-Brexit issues.

    What other policies that they have are you aware of? They have a limited but clearly right wing populist message that will resonate beyond brexit.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...
    I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.

    Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
    I see no evidence from the polls or council by elections or even anecdotal that the LDs are going to pick up 30-40 seats in the commuter belt and SW from the Tories.
    London is where the LDs are going to have some spectacular results IMO, in places like Wimbledon, Finchley, etc.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
    Will the Lib Dems prop up Jeremy Corbyn, a man who commemorates Jew killers, supports Hamas and Hezbollah, and is far left of Michael Foot, be Prime Minister? That is the question they need to answer if they want to be the party of reasoned governance.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Artist said:

    There's really no reason for the Brexit Party to stand at all. A single issue party to support Brexit is going to take voters disproportionately from the only party who will ever pass it. Arguments about the form of Brexit we take are still up for grabs after the withdrawal agreement passes.

    The Tories not getting a majority and the Brexit Party not winning a seat could really change the narrative. Having said that the Tories seem to be successfully squeezing the Brexit Party at the moment and the Brexit Party will be totally sidelined on all non-Brexit issues.

    I think Boris is going to eviscerate Farage during this campaign. No reason to hold back now.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...
    I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.

    Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
    The Tories will not lose 40 seats to the LDs they will pick up 40 to 50 Labour seats, in London and the Midlands and Wales as well as the North, helped by Labour voters going LD and Brexit Party
    You really need to stop these outlandish predictions. No-one can be sure how any of this will pan out.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
    Having now established a clear position on Brexit, the LDs should concentrate on ‘reasoned governance’. With the two main parties having abandoned the field, being a party of pragmatism and good governance has to have mainstream appeal.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405
    edited November 2019
    Bish on C4 News...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,776
    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    They've probably lost a couple of percent from the 18-19% mark.

    They might go down from there. They might go up. If you look at the last forty odd years of elections, they've tended to rise during campaigns. But in 2017, they fell badly.

    I don't know which one it will be, and I am very suspicious of some posters' certainty in this area.
  • tyson said:

    @Big G and Philip Thomson,

    Can you please stop this nonsense about Corbyn being an anti semite- he's been hopeless at dealing with some of the anti zionists headbangers in his party, and he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace- but he is not an anti-semite.....

    Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong

    I think you may find the EHRC will clarify all these issues and I doubt for Corbyn or labour it's findings will be complimentary
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...
    I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.

    Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
    I see no evidence from the polls or council by elections or even anecdotal that the LDs are going to pick up 30-40 seats in the commuter belt and SW from the Tories.
    There only no evidence if you haven’t looked for it, no idea how many seats anybody is going to get. That’s why it is such painful pleasure.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Anecdotally my Brexit supporting friends are planning to vote Brexit Party, not Tory, in seats like Washington and Houghton-le-Spring
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,857
    Omnium said:

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Why should the Lib Dems be sweeping up all Labour Remainers?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405

    Bish on C4 News...

    Has the Tory candidate left school yet?
  • Anecdotally my Brexit supporting friends are planning to vote Brexit Party, not Tory, in seats like Washington and Houghton-le-Spring

    Labour taking a hit in such seats, presumably?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Anecdotally my Brexit supporting friends are planning to vote Brexit Party, not Tory, in seats like Washington and Houghton-le-Spring

    Labour taking a hit in such seats, presumably?
    Nah these people have never voted Labour.
  • Gabs2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
    Will the Lib Dems prop up Jeremy Corbyn, a man who commemorates Jew killers, supports Hamas and Hezbollah, and is far left of Michael Foot, be Prime Minister? That is the question they need to answer if they want to be the party of reasoned governance.
    Jenny Tonge says hello :)
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    Gabs2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
    Will the Lib Dems prop up Jeremy Corbyn, a man who commemorates Jew killers, supports Hamas and Hezbollah, and is far left of Michael Foot, be Prime Minister? That is the question they need to answer if they want to be the party of reasoned governance.
    They have already ruled that out propping up Corbyn, so your question has already been answered. Do keep up
  • HYUFD said:

    Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...
    I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.

    Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
    The Tories will not lose 40 seats to the LDs they will pick up 40 to 50 Labour seats, in London and the Midlands and Wales as well as the North, helped by Labour voters going LD and Brexit Party
    You really need to stop these outlandish predictions. No-one can be sure how any of this will pan out.
    I do agree with you.
  • AndyJS said:

    Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...
    I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.

    Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
    I see no evidence from the polls or council by elections or even anecdotal that the LDs are going to pick up 30-40 seats in the commuter belt and SW from the Tories.
    London is where the LDs are going to have some spectacular results IMO, in places like Wimbledon, Finchley, etc.
    Yes I think they have a good chance in Finchley because of Luciana and obviously will win Richmond.They should give Labour a tough time in some of the remainy London boroughs. I expect a fair view near misses but not many gains in London.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    edited November 2019

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
    Sorry about the specs.

    I think the tint isn't as heavy as you think though. The idea that the Tory party is a populist mob is simply daft. All of our political parties are very far from that. Labour gets closest via Momentum, but even they can't be described in that way. (Much as they'd like to be)

    I think Mr M that your views are on the left, and I'm as sure as a hairspray that your views are remain. If I'm right on those things then I imagine you might have a tricky electoral choice ahead.
  • Artist said:

    There's really no reason for the Brexit Party to stand at all. A single issue party to support Brexit is going to take voters disproportionately from the only party who will ever pass it. Arguments about the form of Brexit we take are still up for grabs after the withdrawal agreement passes.

    The Tories not getting a majority and the Brexit Party not winning a seat could really change the narrative. Having said that the Tories seem to be successfully squeezing the Brexit Party at the moment and the Brexit Party will be totally sidelined on all non-Brexit issues.

    I think Boris is going to eviscerate Farage during this campaign. No reason to hold back now.

    Baker and Francois launched full on attack today on behalf of the spartans

    Expect more from the ERG
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    Is the establishment ready not to be the establishment any more? :smile:
  • Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
    It's more fundamental than that. This campaign is a test of leadership. Is Swinson a leader who can inspire?

    If she is then that will be why people can see past their doubts, because they will put their trust in her. On the basis of how she's gone missing over the last couple of days, and the bland wasteland that was the Jo Swinson booklet, the signs are not good.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405

    Bish on C4 News...

    Has the Tory candidate left school yet?
    And she's wasting her time in Bishop town centre when her voters live in Teesdale.

    Not many Tories do their shopping in Bish.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    OllyT said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
    Will the Lib Dems prop up Jeremy Corbyn, a man who commemorates Jew killers, supports Hamas and Hezbollah, and is far left of Michael Foot, be Prime Minister? That is the question they need to answer if they want to be the party of reasoned governance.
    They have already ruled that out propping up Corbyn, so your question has already been answered. Do keep up
    They have ruled out a coalition but not confidence and supply.
  • Gabs2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
    Will the Lib Dems prop up Jeremy Corbyn, a man who commemorates Jew killers, supports Hamas and Hezbollah, and is far left of Michael Foot, be Prime Minister? That is the question they need to answer if they want to be the party of reasoned governance.
    Your posturing as a Remainer is pitiful. Europhiles For BoJo is a niche group but you strive to ensure it isn’t an empty class.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    This horror result on the day that Labour apparently had such a shit-hot start to their campaign:

    Bromsgrove South (Worcestershire) result:

    CON: 40.2% (-0.3)
    IND: 22.8% (+22.8)
    LDEM: 18.7% (+13.7)
    LAB: 18.3% (-32.2)

    Conservative GAIN from Labour. Labour 1st to 4th.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited November 2019
    RCS1000 said: "Does anyone actually read Matthew Parris any more?"

    Yes - he`s the reason I buy The Times on Saturday.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    A hugely overrated journalist, and achieved peak risibility with the Thames swimming fiasco.
  • Survation is clearly being commissioned by the LDs to undertake polling in several constituencies. They are consistently using the format (named candidate) which gave the LDs deceptively better results before the 2015 election and thus reason to hope that they would hold on to many seats which they subsequently lost badly, as predicted by the more standard format constituency polls.

    What Survation isn't obliged to do is to disclose that it is undertaking polling when the results aren't capable of generating the headlines that the LDs want. So far we've been given the results from Cambridge, Finchley and now NE Somerset only.

    Watch out then for seats where the LDs DONT publish a poll. I suspect that there are some other polls out there which the LDs have decided they don't want you to see. If I am wrong and the LDs wanted to scupper that impression, all they need to do is to ask Survation to put out a statement denying that any other unpublished constituency polls have been conducted for the LDs.
  • Artist said:

    There's really no reason for the Brexit Party to stand at all. A single issue party to support Brexit is going to take voters disproportionately from the only party who will ever pass it. Arguments about the form of Brexit we take are still up for grabs after the withdrawal agreement passes.

    The Tories not getting a majority and the Brexit Party not winning a seat could really change the narrative. Having said that the Tories seem to be successfully squeezing the Brexit Party at the moment and the Brexit Party will be totally sidelined on all non-Brexit issues.

    I think Boris is going to eviscerate Farage during this campaign. No reason to hold back now.

    "We were told that when we had a Brexit Party leader, we'd see a giant global political figure, a man who would be the political leader for 65 million people, the man that would represent all of us all of us on the world stage, the man whose job was so important that of course you're paid more than President Trump. Well, I'm afraid what we got was you...

    "I don't want to be rude but, really, you have the charisma of a damp rag and the appearance of a low-grade bank clerk and the question I want to ask is: 'Who are you?' I'd never heard of you. Nobody in Britain had ever heard of you. I can speak on behalf of the majority of the British people in saying that we don't know you, we don't want you, and the sooner you are put out to grass, the better."
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    I think this argument completely misunderstands the nature of the realignment that’s happening. The Lib Dems are now the small-c conservative party of the professional and aspirational classes, as the Tories were in the 80s, and the Tories are the national-populists, as Michael Foot’s Labour party was.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 405
    Gabs2 said:



    Will the Lib Dems prop up Jeremy Corbyn, a man who commemorates Jew killers, supports Hamas and Hezbollah, and is far left of Michael Foot, be Prime Minister? That is the question they need to answer if they want to be the party of reasoned governance.

    We've repeatedly said we won't let Corbyn into number 10. Since all of us have at some time debated joining the Labour party - and decided not to - when it was run by social democrats, it surely has to be self-evident we won't accede to getting it into government now it's run by racist Trots.

    But it can't be our job to sort out the inability of the Labour party's decent core to get themselves a leader Britons can trust. And it also IS our job to keep Britain out of the economic disaster that'll be inevitable if Brexit goes ahead.

    Some sane advice on how to square this circle would help a lot more than reminding us all about Corbyn's all round uselessness. What's yours?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.

    I’m going to be in the pub tomorrow at 8am for it!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Gabs2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
    Will the Lib Dems prop up Jeremy Corbyn, a man who commemorates Jew killers, supports Hamas and Hezbollah, and is far left of Michael Foot, be Prime Minister? That is the question they need to answer if they want to be the party of reasoned governance.
    Jenny Tonge says hello :)
    Sunil - do you ever write up your railway adventures? Do you have a blog?

    I hugely enjoy your mentions of adventures in places train-worthy. Some obscure siding somewhere that is only used one day a year to shunt some obscure locomotive is all a bit Harry Potter - a magical universe, but we'll navigate it with JK Rowling and thus avoid the many many dull bits.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,776

    Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...
    I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.

    Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
    I see no evidence from the polls or council by elections or even anecdotal that the LDs are going to pick up 30-40 seats in the commuter belt and SW from the Tories.
    Unless there's an earthquake (which is possible but unlikely), the LDs are going to be fighting hard in 10-15 Conservative seats, and perhaps 3-5 Labour ones.

    It's possible there will be some strange (against the national swing) results, but it is far from certain.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    edited November 2019

    AndyJS said:

    Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...
    I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.

    Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
    I see no evidence from the polls or council by elections or even anecdotal that the LDs are going to pick up 30-40 seats in the commuter belt and SW from the Tories.
    London is where the LDs are going to have some spectacular results IMO, in places like Wimbledon, Finchley, etc.
    Yes I think they have a good chance in Finchley because of Luciana and obviously will win Richmond.They should give Labour a tough time in some of the remainy London boroughs. I expect a fair view near misses but not many gains in London.
    Ealing Central and Acton looks a prospect for a spectacular gain from 3rd place, given the Euro election vote. Topping knows this seat and would I think testify to Rupa Huq’s hugely increased majority having been a achieved on the backs of remainer Tories. They are likely to switch to LD this time round.
  • rawzerrawzer Posts: 189
    Stocky said:

    RCS1000 said: "Does anyone actually read Matthew Parris any more?"

    Yes - he`s the reason I buy The Times on Saturday.

    Yes he is the only way I can get through the politics bit of the Spectator
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    FPT. Anyone wondering why they should vote Labour should go and see Ken Loach's new film 'Sorry We Missed You'. A difficult watch but it does make you wonder why anyone living in struggling communities would blame the EU when the real culprits are much closer to home.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    rcs1000 said:

    Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...
    I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.

    Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
    I see no evidence from the polls or council by elections or even anecdotal that the LDs are going to pick up 30-40 seats in the commuter belt and SW from the Tories.
    Unless there's an earthquake (which is possible but unlikely), the LDs are going to be fighting hard in 10-15 Conservative seats, and perhaps 3-5 Labour ones.

    It's possible there will be some strange (against the national swing) results, but it is far from certain.
    The reality is 50 priority one targets and 50 development targets, the difference this time is a much broader air war which has not been possible in the past due to financial limitations, will it work? No idea
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    So here I find myself, unwilling to support a leader who is a stranger to honesty or principle and who surfs a foolish populist wave for the sake of ambition alone, leading a governing party whose centre of gravity has shifted decisively away from the broadly centrist political force Conservatism once was. Johnson has come; Johnson will finally go; but now most likely ambushed from the right. We all have our breaking point, but for me the time has arrived to give up hoping for a return to Tory sanity.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,776

    AndyJS said:

    Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...
    I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.

    Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
    I see no evidence from the polls or council by elections or even anecdotal that the LDs are going to pick up 30-40 seats in the commuter belt and SW from the Tories.
    London is where the LDs are going to have some spectacular results IMO, in places like Wimbledon, Finchley, etc.
    Yes I think they have a good chance in Finchley because of Luciana and obviously will win Richmond.They should give Labour a tough time in some of the remainy London boroughs. I expect a fair view near misses but not many gains in London.
    My money is on the LibDems being +3 in London.

    Richmond, as you say, is a cert. There are then two from:

    Hornsey & Wood Green
    Southwark
    City of London
    Wimbledon
    Sutton & Cheam
  • For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.

    This is big Nick

    This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.


    PB.COM is weird in that it’s interested in cricket rugby and football, but maybe it’s interested in betting opportunities that arise.
  • Artist said:

    There's really no reason for the Brexit Party to stand at all. A single issue party to support Brexit is going to take voters disproportionately from the only party who will ever pass it. Arguments about the form of Brexit we take are still up for grabs after the withdrawal agreement passes.

    The Tories not getting a majority and the Brexit Party not winning a seat could really change the narrative. Having said that the Tories seem to be successfully squeezing the Brexit Party at the moment and the Brexit Party will be totally sidelined on all non-Brexit issues.

    One of Farage's main arguments is we shouldnt pay £40bn to the EU (guess now £30bn ish). Whilst I think its nonsense, it is not fair to say we could achieve that post WA being ratified.
  • Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
    Sorry about the specs.

    I think the tint isn't as heavy as you think though. The idea that the Tory party is a populist mob is simply daft. All of our political parties are very far from that. Labour gets closest via Momentum, but even they can't be described in that way. (Much as they'd like to be)

    I think Mr M that your views are on the left, and I'm as sure as a hairspray that your views are remain. If I'm right on those things then I imagine you might have a tricky electoral choice ahead.
    A party willing to suspend democracy in an attempt to impose a chaotic and damaging policy that no one voted for is a populist mob.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    IanB2 said:

    So here I find myself, unwilling to support a leader who is a stranger to honesty or principle and who surfs a foolish populist wave for the sake of ambition alone, leading a governing party whose centre of gravity has shifted decisively away from the broadly centrist political force Conservatism once was. Johnson has come; Johnson will finally go; but now most likely ambushed from the right. We all have our breaking point, but for me the time has arrived to give up hoping for a return to Tory sanity.
    I am not sure what that passage is meant to highlight. Parris is the one who has lost his sanity. Naturally he sees the problem everywhere but within.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405

    For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.

    Plenty of folk round here follow rugby. Just not the posh lads version.

    I ought to go up to Keighley to check out the Cougars. I might even watch some rugby.

    My coat, please.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.

    This is big Nick

    This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
    That’s goinga little far I would suggest, it will make SPOTY more interesting though.
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