He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
It's a bit early to be having "doubts", my friend. The Panelbase poll was fine and I suspect the polls tomorrow night will show very healthy Conservative leads.
I do agree once the campaign really gets going it will get more interesting with Johnson having to defend some of the manifesto ideas but unless BP can get some real traction into the LEAVE vote I suspect Johnson will romp home.
No-one has tuned into this yet.
In my office, I’ve just heard sighing, “shitshow” and a rapid changing of the subject.
Another bet I’ve made is to sell turnout at below 60% for 12/1.
Sorry for being an ignoramus but does 'selling' in this context mean you profit if turnout is below 60%?
Yes.
It's got to be worth it at 12/1 I'd thought... A combination of disillusion, dark nights, Christmas parties and potential bad weather could hit turnout hard.
Turnout below 60% would be a further blow to democracy imo, especially if it led to a thumping majority for any party.
Why do you guys have an aversion to Vanilla? I think its fantastic and use it almost exclusively. I would prefer if I could read the full articles on it too.
Me too - with the added bonus that it saves a lot of time in reading the headers which tend to be overly slanted.
It is interesting to compare Corbyn's ratings at the start of the election campaign in 2017 with those today.
In the April poll (21st - 25th April) which was about 6 weeks before the election Corbyn was
27% Satisfied, 62% dissatisfied so -35% overall
This time around at the same point in the cycle Corbyn is
15% Satisfied, 75% dissatisfied so -60% overall
By a week before the election in 2017 Corbyn had improved his ratings to
39% Satisfied, 50% dissatisfied so -11% overall
An improvement of 24% on the start of the campaign.
What do people think of him doing a similar job this time? That would still leave him on -36% satisfaction.
So that looks worse for Jezza now than at the start of the 2017 campaign but I suspect Boris is in a considerably worse position than May was at the start of the 2017 campaign too.
The YouGov 'Best Prime Minister' series shows Johnson 43%, Corbyn 20%, so Boris 23% ahead...
Whereas in April 2017 it had May 50%, Corbyn 14%, so May 36% ahead.
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.
Where are the rich pickings in the Midlands?
I forecast no change in the 10 seats in Leics and Rutland. I cannot see Lab taking Loughborough, LDs taking Bosworth or Harborough, or any of the 3 Leicester seats going Tory. Some of them may be close though, and losing Nicky Morgan will hurt the Tories in Loughborough.
Can you please stop this nonsense about Corbyn being an anti semite- he's been hopeless at dealing with some of the anti zionists headbangers in his party, and he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace- but he is not an anti-semite.....
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes... I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.
This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.
Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
I see no evidence from the polls or council by elections or even anecdotal that the LDs are going to pick up 30-40 seats in the commuter belt and SW from the Tories.
London is where the LDs are going to have some spectacular results IMO, in places like Wimbledon, Finchley, etc.
Yes I think they have a good chance in Finchley because of Luciana and obviously will win Richmond.They should give Labour a tough time in some of the remainy London boroughs. I expect a fair view near misses but not many gains in London.
Ealing Central and Acton looks a prospect for a spectacular gain from 3rd place, given the Euro election vote. Topping knows this seat and would I think testify to Rupa Huq’s hugely increased majority having been a achieved on the backs of remainer Tories. They are likely to switch to LD this time round.
Very unlikely . Such voters will not wish to risk handing the seat back to the Tories. Ditto in Kensington. - and the idea that the LDs are in serious contention in Putney and Battersea is 'for the birds'.
For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.
This is big Nick
This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
But Nick is quite right - most people are not interested and the match will pass them by.
So here I find myself, unwilling to support a leader who is a stranger to honesty or principle and who surfs a foolish populist wave for the sake of ambition alone, leading a governing party whose centre of gravity has shifted decisively away from the broadly centrist political force Conservatism once was. Johnson has come; Johnson will finally go; but now most likely ambushed from the right. We all have our breaking point, but for me the time has arrived to give up hoping for a return to Tory sanity.
I am not sure what that passage is meant to highlight. Parris is the one who has lost his sanity. Naturally he sees the problem everywhere but within.
Parris lost it years ago. He is infamous for throwing his toys out of the pram whenever he doesn't get his way.
Is he?
Parris always strikes me as reasonable. Even when he caused a by-election in 1986, he deliberately told a local newspaper either the Labour Party or the Liberal Party was the main threat, when in fact it was the opposite party. The Tory candidate went on to win by 100 votes or so, he was an ex-miner who went on to become a Cabinet Minister! I forget his name but he is a recent Cabinet minister at that (last ten years)!
Sir Patrick McLoughlin, who has just announced his retirement from politics.
Thanks, could not remember his name until you said. I suspect he is probably going up to the Lords! He was on TV the other day making very partisan pro government points in the chamber. He knows where his Bread and Butter is coming from for his retirement no doubt!
It is interesting to compare Corbyn's ratings at the start of the election campaign in 2017 with those today.
In the April poll (21st - 25th April) which was about 6 weeks before the election Corbyn was
27% Satisfied, 62% dissatisfied so -35% overall
This time around at the same point in the cycle Corbyn is
15% Satisfied, 75% dissatisfied so -60% overall
By a week before the election in 2017 Corbyn had improved his ratings to
39% Satisfied, 50% dissatisfied so -11% overall
An improvement of 24% on the start of the campaign.
What do people think of him doing a similar job this time? That would still leave him on -36% satisfaction.
So that looks worse for Jezza now than at the start of the 2017 campaign but I suspect Boris is in a considerably worse position than May was at the start of the 2017 campaign too.
The YouGov 'Best Prime Minister' series shows Johnson 43%, Corbyn 20%, so Boris 23% ahead...
Whereas in April 2017 it had May 54%, Corbyn 14%, so May 36% ahead.
Make of that what you will.
May's satisfaction numbers took a real tumble over the same period.
In April at the start of the campaign she was +19 and by the end she was down to -7.
Johnson is only starting on +2 so if he runs as bad a campaign as May did he could be around -24 by election day. The gap between Johnson and Corbyn would be wider than that between May and Corbyn but perhaps one could claim of a similar magnitude?
As someone who wants Johnson to get a majority I just have to hope he runs a better campaign than May did (probable) and Corbyn does not perform as well this time as he did in 2017 (uncertain)
What I find so fascinating is that while there's every chance Johnson will get a solid majority, the past few years show that almost any outcome is possible.
It feel to me that we may well end up with another hung parliament with the Tories as largest party but they've lost any chance of doing a deal so they'd end up heading for opposition in that case.
Odds on Boris to resign as Tory leader before the end of the year anyone?
For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.
This is big Nick
This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
But Nick is quite right - most people are not interested and the match will pass them by.
In England (apart perhaps parts of the WestCountry) Rugby is the poshos sport. No one else is bothered. That is true even in a place like Leicester, where historically the team has been strong.
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.
Where are the rich pickings in the Midlands?
I forecast no change in the 10 seats in Leics and Rutland. I cannot see Lab taking Loughborough, LDs taking Bosworth or Harborough, or any of the 3 Leicester seats going Tory. Some of them may be close though, and losing Nicky Morgan will hurt the Tories in Loughborough.
David Drew might well be in trouble in Stroud. He seems to have gone out of his way to seriously piss off the huge personal vote he had. If so, Glos will again be a Labour-free zone.
The only seats that might change hands in Staffs are Newcastle under Lyme and Stoke on Trent South - which would cancel each other out. Amanda Milling is no Winston Churchill but I can’t see her losing Cannock Chase at this moment (given he seat voted something like 69% leave) while the others are more or less safe seats.
I suppose there is a faint chance Fabricant might be upset by the Liberal Democrats in Lichfield, but it’s such a faint chance it hardly seems worth mentioning.
Can you please stop this nonsense about Corbyn being an anti semite- he's been hopeless at dealing with some of the anti zionists headbangers in his party, and he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace- but he is not an anti-semite.....
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
"he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace"
that, sir, is doing a LOT of heavy lifting.
The ‘heavy lifting’ cliche is another teeth-grindingly awful PBism. Avoid.
Not as bad as the “comedy” new thread alerts, which are becoming rather tiresome.
Can you please stop this nonsense about Corbyn being an anti semite- he's been hopeless at dealing with some of the anti zionists headbangers in his party, and he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace- but he is not an anti-semite.....
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
The thing about Labour voters is, they just don’t get English irony...
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.
Where are the rich pickings in the Midlands?
I forecast no change in the 10 seats in Leics and Rutland. I cannot see Lab taking Loughborough, LDs taking Bosworth or Harborough, or any of the 3 Leicester seats going Tory. Some of them may be close though, and losing Nicky Morgan will hurt the Tories in Loughborough.
For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.
This is big Nick
This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
But Nick is quite right - most people are not interested and the match will pass them by.
In England (apart perhaps parts of the WestCountry) Rugby is the poshos sport. No one else is bothered. That is true even in a place like Leicester, where historically the team has been strong.
But the WC is a big enough deal to turn us all into temporary rugby buffs, and that is something to be encouraged. I don't bother with the 6 nations or anything else but i'll be watching tomorrow.
“Nigel Farage said Boris' deal doesn't take us out of the European Union. That's not true. It does take us out of the European Union, that's why I and my so-called fellow spartans voted for it” Mark Francois
On the same basis Theresa May's deal took us out of the EU, so why didn't the idiot Francois vote for that one?
Why do you guys have an aversion to Vanilla? I think its fantastic and use it almost exclusively. I would prefer if I could read the full articles on it too.
Me too - with the added bonus that it saves a lot of time in reading the headers which tend to be overly slanted.
And Loooong!
On the times I’ve written a header I draft it quickly and then spend several hours getting it down to 500 words.
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.
Where are the rich pickings in the Midlands?
I forecast no change in the 10 seats in Leics and Rutland. I cannot see Lab taking Loughborough, LDs taking Bosworth or Harborough, or any of the 3 Leicester seats going Tory. Some of them may be close though, and losing Nicky Morgan will hurt the Tories in Loughborough.
A great analysis of Nottingham(ish) seats......
Don't start that again!
There is a fair amount of LD effort on Rushcliffe, but starting from too low a base imo, even in a Europhile constituency.
For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.
This is big Nick
This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
But Nick is quite right - most people are not interested and the match will pass them by.
In England (apart perhaps parts of the WestCountry) Rugby is the poshos sport. No one else is bothered. That is true even in a place like Leicester, where historically the team has been strong.
Around ten million watched the semi-final. That’s an awful lot of poshos.
By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes... I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.
This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.
Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
I see no evidence from the polls or council by elections or even anecdotal that the LDs are going to pick up 30-40 seats in the commuter belt and SW from the Tories.
London is where the LDs are going to have some spectacular results IMO, in places like Wimbledon, Finchley, etc.
The only likely LD gain in London is Richmond Park.
Any evidence for that claim?
The national polls support my claim. Panelbase has the LDs trailing Labour by 15% and most polls have them in the 15% - 18% range. Very few LD gains in London on those figures - indeed even Richmond Park is not the certainty that many assume given that the Tories gained the seat in 2010 when polling less than 37% nationally with LDs on 23%.
“Nigel Farage said Boris' deal doesn't take us out of the European Union. That's not true. It does take us out of the European Union, that's why I and my so-called fellow spartans voted for it” Mark Francois
On the same basis Theresa May's deal took us out of the EU, so why didn't the idiot Francois vote for that one?
Why do you guys have an aversion to Vanilla? I think its fantastic and use it almost exclusively. I would prefer if I could read the full articles on it too.
Me too - with the added bonus that it saves a lot of time in reading the headers which tend to be overly slanted.
And Loooong!
On the times I’ve written a header I draft it quickly and then spend several hours getting it down to 500 words.
For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.
This is big Nick
This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
But Nick is quite right - most people are not interested and the match will pass them by.
In England (apart perhaps parts of the WestCountry) Rugby is the poshos sport. No one else is bothered. That is true even in a place like Leicester, where historically the team has been strong.
Around ten million watched the semi-final. That’s an awful lot of poshos.
I will watch it, but more bothered by Sundays away match at Crystal Palace. That is the only match that I have heard discussed at work this week, amongst staff or patients.
Why do you guys have an aversion to Vanilla? I think its fantastic and use it almost exclusively. I would prefer if I could read the full articles on it too.
Me too - with the added bonus that it saves a lot of time in reading the headers which tend to be overly slanted.
And Loooong!
On the times I’ve written a header I draft it quickly and then spend several hours getting it down to 500 words.
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
The shadow of Farage seems an ominous one today. But I wonder if the voters will reach the conclusion, albeit belatedly, that he is a self-obsessed crank.
"Parris always strikes me as reasonable. Even when he caused a by-election in 1986, he deliberately told a local newspaper either the Labour Party or the Liberal Party was the main threat, when in fact it was the opposite party. The Tory candidate went on to win by 100 votes or so, he was an ex-miner who went on to become a Cabinet Minister! I forget his name but he is a recent Cabinet minister at that (last ten years)!
I read a book about Parris about his life called "Chance Witness", which I found interesting. I still have the book somewhere? "
I`ve read Chance Witness too - it`s his autobiography. And his other books too - I`m a bit of a fanboy when it comes to Parris.
Away from politics, his book "A Castle in Spain" is about a property that he stumbled upon whilst hiking in Northern Spain and ended up buying it with his family many years later. Turned out to be a money pit.
It`s now a hotel, run by Parris`s two sisters. I visited it a couple of years ago for a treat. Superb place, amazing location. L`Avenc de Tavertet if you`re interested.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?
They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?
The electoral pact thing can't be helping.
The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.
Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
Will the Lib Dems prop up Jeremy Corbyn, a man who commemorates Jew killers, supports Hamas and Hezbollah, and is far left of Michael Foot, be Prime Minister? That is the question they need to answer if they want to be the party of reasoned governance.
Given that they have already stated that they will not go into coalition with neither Lab nor Con, and given that they actually refused to form a GONu with them when offered, I should imagine they have already answered your question.
Consequently I look forward to you saying nice things about the Lib Dems. I'll hold my breath, shall I?...
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
The National wish list for the Greens isn’t that long and the IOW is very high indeed on it. They comfortably outpolled the LibDems in 2017.
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.
Where are the rich pickings in the Midlands?
I forecast no change in the 10 seats in Leics and Rutland. I cannot see Lab taking Loughborough, LDs taking Bosworth or Harborough, or any of the 3 Leicester seats going Tory. Some of them may be close though, and losing Nicky Morgan will hurt the Tories in Loughborough.
In Nottinghamshire
I can see Gloria Del Piero's (Ashfield) seat going blue.
Soubry will lose her seat (Broxtowe) but I think it will be back to blue.
There is perhaps a question over John Mann's seat (Bassetlaw) given he was a popular local MP and a Eurosceptic. It is an almost 5000 majority but was strongly Leave. It will depend a lot on who Labour put in his place. This was a solid Labour mining seat in the past but with Mansfield and Sherwood both having gone blue since 2010 I can see Bassetlaw following.
I can't see any others changing hands in either direction. Vernon Coaker in Gedling has a 4000+ majority but he is a popular local MP.
So potentially 2 gains on 2017 and 1 return for the blues but none of them are firm with the possible exception of Ashfield.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
The National wish list for the Greens isn’t that long and the IOW is very high indeed on it. They comfortably outpolled the LibDems in 2017.
Most people outpolled the lib dems in 2017 but it's supposed to be different this time is it not? By not standing the kind are throwing away any chance of winning the seat for a long time which is mad as not long ago it could be considered a Tory Lib Dem marginal
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.
Where are the rich pickings in the Midlands?
I forecast no change in the 10 seats in Leics and Rutland. I cannot see Lab taking Loughborough, LDs taking Bosworth or Harborough, or any of the 3 Leicester seats going Tory. Some of them may be close though, and losing Nicky Morgan will hurt the Tories in Loughborough.
In Nottinghamshire
I can see Gloria Del Piero's (Ashfield) seat going blue.
Soubry will lose her seat (Broxtowe) but I think it will be back to blue.
There is perhaps a question over John Mann's seat (Bassetlaw) given he was a popular local MP and a Eurosceptic. It is an almost 5000 majority but was strongly Leave. It will depend a lot on who Labour put in his place. This was a solid Labour mining seat in the past but with Mansfield and Sherwood both having gone blue since 2010 I can see Bassetlaw following.
I can't see any others changing hands in either direction. Vernon Coaker in Gedling has a 4000+ majority but he is a popular local MP.
So potentially 2 gains on 2017 and 1 return for the blues but none of them are firm with the possible exception of Ashfield.
The ex LibDem Independent in Ashfield is also in with a chance
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
The National wish list for the Greens isn’t that long and the IOW is very high indeed on it. They comfortably outpolled the LibDems in 2017.
Most people outpolled the lib dems in 2017 but it's supposed to be different this time is it not? By not standing the kind are throwing away any chance of winning the seat for a long time which is mad as not long ago it could be considered a Tory Lib Dem marginal
A deal wasn’t going be done without both parties conceding the top seats that the other wanted. We’ll have to see next week how this pans out nationally.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
“Nigel Farage said Boris' deal doesn't take us out of the European Union. That's not true. It does take us out of the European Union, that's why I and my so-called fellow spartans voted for it” Mark Francois
On the same basis Theresa May's deal took us out of the EU, so why didn't the idiot Francois vote for that one?
They are different though I was happy with TM deal this is better in some ways
However, the important point is the spartans are going for Farage and no sign they will jump ship as he may have hoped
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
The National wish list for the Greens isn’t that long and the IOW is very high indeed on it. They comfortably outpolled the LibDems in 2017.
Most people outpolled the lib dems in 2017 but it's supposed to be different this time is it not? By not standing the kind are throwing away any chance of winning the seat for a long time which is mad as not long ago it could be considered a Tory Lib Dem marginal
The Green Lib Dems are quite a strong and active LD faction. There are few LDs unhappy with an electoral alliance with the Greens. We have a lot of common policies.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Perhaps the weather will play a hand. Ever experienced a high wind in Ventnor?
Were there not direct Cameron and Miliband debates in 2015 when the Libs had way more seats than now? Seems like a tough argument to muscle her way in when there is plenty of precedent for just red vs blue.
Why do you guys have an aversion to Vanilla? I think its fantastic and use it almost exclusively. I would prefer if I could read the full articles on it too.
Me too - with the added bonus that it saves a lot of time in reading the headers which tend to be overly slanted.
And Loooong!
On the times I’ve written a header I draft it quickly and then spend several hours getting it down to 500 words.
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
The shadow of Farage seems an ominous one today. But I wonder if the voters will reach the conclusion, albeit belatedly, that he is a self-obsessed crank.
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
The shadow of Farage seems an ominous one today. But I wonder if the voters will reach the conclusion, albeit belatedly, that he is a self-obsessed crank.
You could have said the same about he-whom-Godwin's-law-prevents-us-from-mentioning but that never stopped him in 1930.
“Nigel Farage said Boris' deal doesn't take us out of the European Union. That's not true. It does take us out of the European Union, that's why I and my so-called fellow spartans voted for it” Mark Francois
On the same basis Theresa May's deal took us out of the EU, so why didn't the idiot Francois vote for that one?
They are different though I was happy with TM deal this is better in some ways
However, the important point is the spartans are going for Farage and no sign they will jump ship as he may have hoped
Farage and TBP are rivals, I would not expect the spartans to do anything other than disagree with TBP in public at least. At some point the spartans are either going to be in disagreement about BJ and his "one nation" domestic agenda or BJ is a liar and he is not one nation at all. If the latter is the case I am afraid you will feel to have been deceived given your initial scepticsm of BJ...
Were there not direct Cameron and Miliband debates in 2015 when the Libs had way more seats than now? Seems like a tough argument to muscle her way in when there is plenty of precedent for just red vs blue.
A Brexit election debate is missing something without a remainer.
But the LD petition appears mostly aimed at gathering supporter contact data.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Perhaps the weather will play a hand. Ever experienced a high wind in Ventnor?
Up to 70mph forecast for this very night. Will at least clear away the fog.
"Around ten million watched the semi-final. That’s an awful lot of poshos."
Would be interesting to know how many of the England squad attended private school as opposed to a state school. I suspect a high percentage.
I`d look it up if I could be bothered. I`m still pissed off about Farage.
Rugby Union commentators used to be forever wittering on about which school the players used to attend. Why the feck should I need to know that? Nigel Starmer Smith was the worst for it.
I never heard Motty announce that Paul Gascoigne attended Heathfield Senior High while watching an England football international.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Lib Dems are far from a spent force. After 2015, I thought it would be decades to rebuild, but I think that most of that rebuild will be complete by this GE in terms of voteshare and seats. We will be in great position for the next election after this, and that could be as soon as next year.
Intrinsic to LD support for PR is a willingness to work with other parties, and Jo was explicit about this in her leadership campaign.
Indeed, I would be happy for joint LD/Green candidates to run.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Perhaps the weather will play a hand. Ever experienced a high wind in Ventnor?
Yep, I've lived there, I'm the only one who will sit outside the Spyglass in a storm. Sadly as good as Ventnor is it also gave the world Polly Toynbee.
Were there not direct Cameron and Miliband debates in 2015 when the Libs had way more seats than now? Seems like a tough argument to muscle her way in when there is plenty of precedent for just red vs blue.
No - Cameron only appeared in a single 2015 Debate which also included the minor party leaders. I wonder whether the LDs - and possibly the Brexit Party - will go to the Courts on this.
Were there not direct Cameron and Miliband debates in 2015 when the Libs had way more seats than now? Seems like a tough argument to muscle her way in when there is plenty of precedent for just red vs blue.
1-5 is in to 11/10 from 5/4 earlier today 6-10 stays at 9/4
Nicola has gifted the conservatives a way to defend their seats by full on attacks on her and Indy 2
Just watched Ross Thomson election broadcast from Moray on my twitter feed and it is a full on attack against her obsession with Independence
They were going to do that regardless.
In the last two Westminet Elections Sturgeon repeatedly went out of her way to emphasise they were not about Independence. The other parties ceaselessly attacked her for being obsessed about independence.
This time by actually asking it about Independence Sturgeon is building a case for a 2020 referendum.
In effect it it is sidestepping the opposition who have been demanding a mandate from the 2021 Holyrood election as a precondition to an IndyRef. Now Sturgeon can derive one from this election.
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
The shadow of Farage seems an ominous one today. But I wonder if the voters will reach the conclusion, albeit belatedly, that he is a self-obsessed crank.
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
The shadow of Farage seems an ominous one today. But I wonder if the voters will reach the conclusion, albeit belatedly, that he is a self-obsessed crank.
You could have said the same about he-whom-Godwin's-law-prevents-us-from-mentioning but that never stopped him in 1930.
Farage is no fascist. Like Wossisname, he is a populist, but whilst populism is a necessary component of fascism, it is not in itself sufficient.
"Parris always strikes me as reasonable. Even when he caused a by-election in 1986, he deliberately told a local newspaper either the Labour Party or the Liberal Party was the main threat, when in fact it was the opposite party. The Tory candidate went on to win by 100 votes or so, he was an ex-miner who went on to become a Cabinet Minister! I forget his name but he is a recent Cabinet minister at that (last ten years)!
I read a book about Parris about his life called "Chance Witness", which I found interesting. I still have the book somewhere? "
I`ve read Chance Witness too - it`s his autobiography. And his other books too - I`m a bit of a fanboy when it comes to Parris.
Away from politics, his book "A Castle in Spain" is about a property that he stumbled upon whilst hiking in Northern Spain and ended up buying it with his family many years later. Turned out to be a money pit.
It`s now a hotel, run by Parris`s two sisters. I visited it a couple of years ago for a treat. Superb place, amazing location. L`Avenc de Tavertet if you`re interested.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Lib Dems are far from a spent force. After 2015, I thought it would be decades to rebuild, but I think that most of that rebuild will be complete by this GE in terms of voteshare and seats. We will be in great position for the next election after this, and that could be as soon as next year.
Intrinsic to LD support for PR is a willingness to work with other parties, and Jo was explicit about this in her leadership campaign.
Indeed, I would be happy for joint LD/Green candidates to run.
I though the LDs were relatively centrist, why would they partner with the Greens?
I see even Guido Fawkes summarises the first two days of the campaign as quiet for the Tories - I wonder what the first big story, in a positive way, will be for them. They will need something to make Farage's supporters feel they need to abandon the chap.
Were there not direct Cameron and Miliband debates in 2015 when the Libs had way more seats than now? Seems like a tough argument to muscle her way in when there is plenty of precedent for just red vs blue.
I'm sure they had a Q and A without the minor party leaders. I recall Miliband almost falling off the stage. So not a debate but still the TV channels were happy just to have the big guns.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Swampy is doing something sensible now - I forget what exactly but my mother commissioned some work from him recently
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Lib Dems are far from a spent force. After 2015, I thought it would be decades to rebuild, but I think that most of that rebuild will be complete by this GE in terms of voteshare and seats. We will be in great position for the next election after this, and that could be as soon as next year.
Intrinsic to LD support for PR is a willingness to work with other parties, and Jo was explicit about this in her leadership campaign.
Indeed, I would be happy for joint LD/Green candidates to run.
I though the LDs were relatively centrist, why would they partner with the Greens?
Remain Alliance. The clue is in the name.
Although the LDs were also the first major party to champion green issues, and both they and the Greens have political reform high on their agenda.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Lib Dems are far from a spent force. After 2015, I thought it would be decades to rebuild, but I think that most of that rebuild will be complete by this GE in terms of voteshare and seats. We will be in great position for the next election after this, and that could be as soon as next year.
Intrinsic to LD support for PR is a willingness to work with other parties, and Jo was explicit about this in her leadership campaign.
Indeed, I would be happy for joint LD/Green candidates to run.
Pluralism. So something both Labour and the Tories seem to have turned their backs on.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Lib Dems are far from a spent force. After 2015, I thought it would be decades to rebuild, but I think that most of that rebuild will be complete by this GE in terms of voteshare and seats. We will be in great position for the next election after this, and that could be as soon as next year.
Intrinsic to LD support for PR is a willingness to work with other parties, and Jo was explicit about this in her leadership campaign.
Indeed, I would be happy for joint LD/Green candidates to run.
I though the LDs were relatively centrist, why would they partner with the Greens?
More to the point, why should eco-socialists partner with capitalist Tory lapdogs?
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Swampy is doing something sensible now - I forget what exactly but my mother commissioned some work from him recently
And his other books too - I`m a bit of a fanboy when it comes to Parris.
Away from politics, his book "A Castle in Spain" is about a property that he stumbled upon whilst hiking in Northern Spain and ended up buying it with his family many years later. Turned out to be a money pit.
It`s now a hotel, run by Parris`s two sisters. I visited it a couple of years ago for a treat. Superb place, amazing location. L`Avenc de Tavertet if you`re interested.
Thanks, I might look into that.
+1. I'm a Parris fan too, but hadn't heard of this book. I've ordered it.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Swampy is doing something sensible now - I forget what exactly but my mother commissioned some work from him recently
They all grow up in the end, except maybe Caroline Lucas. Greta Thunberg will probably be an accountant at 40.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Lib Dems are far from a spent force. After 2015, I thought it would be decades to rebuild, but I think that most of that rebuild will be complete by this GE in terms of voteshare and seats. We will be in great position for the next election after this, and that could be as soon as next year.
Intrinsic to LD support for PR is a willingness to work with other parties, and Jo was explicit about this in her leadership campaign.
Indeed, I would be happy for joint LD/Green candidates to run.
I though the LDs were relatively centrist, why would they partner with the Greens?
Both parties are internationalist, pro European, keen on rapid action on climate change, keen on local devolution, and pro electoral reform. We have a lot in common.
It is interesting to compare Corbyn's ratings at the start of the election campaign in 2017 with those today.
In the April poll (21st - 25th April) which was about 6 weeks before the election Corbyn was
27% Satisfied, 62% dissatisfied so -35% overall
This time around at the same point in the cycle Corbyn is
15% Satisfied, 75% dissatisfied so -60% overall
By a week before the election in 2017 Corbyn had improved his ratings to
39% Satisfied, 50% dissatisfied so -11% overall
An improvement of 24% on the start of the campaign.
What do people think of him doing a similar job this time? That would still leave him on -36% satisfaction.
Interesting. The other side of the equation is what happened to May's ratings. April 56/37 for +19 Week before election 43/50 for -7 That's a deterioration in May's score of 26% over the same period. So Corbyn moved from a 54 point deficit to a 4 point deficit relative to May.
Compare now to Johnson who currently sits on 46/44 for +2 So Johnson has a lead on this measure of 62 points on Corbyn, comparing to May's lead of 54 points. If Corbyn closes the gap by the same amount, with Johnson's position deteriorating as May's did, then the gap between the two would narrow to 12 points. (This compares to a 17 point lead Cameron over Miliband, 15 point lead Blair over Howard, 11 point lead Major over Kinnock - it would almost certainly be enough for a small majority)
I think the 2017GE campaign was truly exceptional, and such large swings are unlikely - and of course it's not impossible they could move in the other direction if Johnson improves his ratings further. So even in a best case scenario for Corbyn, Johnson would probably still win a majority.
However, I do think that this is a clear area of risk for Johnson. His ratings were 37/55 for -18 in September for example. And Swinson is an unknown factor, just as Clegg was in 2010.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Swampy is doing something sensible now - I forget what exactly but my mother commissioned some work from him recently
Who or what is Swampy?
90s crusty protester of Newbury bypass fame if I recall correctly
Comments
The YouGov 'Best Prime Minister' series shows Johnson 43%, Corbyn 20%, so Boris 23% ahead...
Whereas in April 2017 it had May 50%, Corbyn 14%, so May 36% ahead.
Make of that what you will.
(Corrected a typo in the original post)
It feel to me that we may well end up with another hung parliament with the Tories as largest party but they've lost any chance of doing a deal so they'd end up heading for opposition in that case.
Odds on Boris to resign as Tory leader before the end of the year anyone?
The only seats that might change hands in Staffs are Newcastle under Lyme and Stoke on Trent South - which would cancel each other out. Amanda Milling is no Winston Churchill but I can’t see her losing Cannock Chase at this moment (given he seat voted something like 69% leave) while the others are more or less safe seats.
I suppose there is a faint chance Fabricant might be upset by the Liberal Democrats in Lichfield, but it’s such a faint chance it hardly seems worth mentioning.
It's listed on Wiki but appears identical to 15 Oct poll and link is to 15 Oct poll.
1-5 is in to 11/10 from 5/4 earlier today
6-10 stays at 9/4
On the times I’ve written a header I draft it quickly and then spend several hours getting it down to 500 words.
I don’t think people are succinct enough
There is a fair amount of LD effort on Rushcliffe, but starting from too low a base imo, even in a Europhile constituency.
That’s an awful lot of poshos.
Edinburgh South is still a no brainer bet in my view.
Just watched Ross Thomson election broadcast from Moray on my twitter feed and it is a full on attack against her obsession with Independence
"Parris always strikes me as reasonable. Even when he caused a by-election in 1986, he deliberately told a local newspaper either the Labour Party or the Liberal Party was the main threat, when in fact it was the opposite party. The Tory candidate went on to win by 100 votes or so, he was an ex-miner who went on to become a Cabinet Minister! I forget his name but he is a recent Cabinet minister at that (last ten years)!
I read a book about Parris about his life called "Chance Witness", which I found interesting. I still have the book somewhere? "
I`ve read Chance Witness too - it`s his autobiography. And his other books too - I`m a bit of a fanboy when it comes to Parris.
Away from politics, his book "A Castle in Spain" is about a property that he stumbled upon whilst hiking in Northern Spain and ended up buying it with his family many years later. Turned out to be a money pit.
It`s now a hotel, run by Parris`s two sisters. I visited it a couple of years ago for a treat. Superb place, amazing location. L`Avenc de Tavertet if you`re interested.
Consequently I look forward to you saying nice things about the Lib Dems. I'll hold my breath, shall I?...
Just had a repeat of the 'PB.com not showing comments' problem...
Cleared my last hour of history and problem fixed.
Annnoying.
I can see Gloria Del Piero's (Ashfield) seat going blue.
Soubry will lose her seat (Broxtowe) but I think it will be back to blue.
There is perhaps a question over John Mann's seat (Bassetlaw) given he was a popular local MP and a Eurosceptic. It is an almost 5000 majority but was strongly Leave. It will depend a lot on who Labour put in his place. This was a solid Labour mining seat in the past but with Mansfield and Sherwood both having gone blue since 2010 I can see Bassetlaw following.
I can't see any others changing hands in either direction. Vernon Coaker in Gedling has a 4000+ majority but he is a popular local MP.
So potentially 2 gains on 2017 and 1 return for the blues but none of them are firm with the possible exception of Ashfield.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
However, the important point is the spartans are going for Farage and no sign they will jump ship as he may have hoped
That’s an awful lot of poshos."
Would be interesting to know how many of the England squad attended private school as opposed to a state school. I suspect a high percentage.
I`d look it up if I could be bothered. I`m still pissed off about Farage.
https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/1
Oh, no, hang on a minute...
She's not the girl I used to know"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhhYI8bdhfk
But the LD petition appears mostly aimed at gathering supporter contact data.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graveney_School
I never heard Motty announce that Paul Gascoigne attended Heathfield Senior High while watching an England football international.
Intrinsic to LD support for PR is a willingness to work with other parties, and Jo was explicit about this in her leadership campaign.
Indeed, I would be happy for joint LD/Green candidates to run.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election_debates
In the last two Westminet Elections Sturgeon repeatedly went out of her way to emphasise they were not about Independence. The other parties ceaselessly attacked her for being obsessed about independence.
This time by actually asking it about Independence Sturgeon is building a case for a 2020 referendum.
In effect it it is sidestepping the opposition who have been demanding a mandate from the 2021 Holyrood election as a precondition to an IndyRef. Now Sturgeon can derive one from this election.
Although the LDs were also the first major party to champion green issues, and both they and the Greens have political reform high on their agenda.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PebH4X097Lg
So something both Labour and the Tories seem to have turned their backs on.
April 56/37 for +19
Week before election 43/50 for -7
That's a deterioration in May's score of 26% over the same period.
So Corbyn moved from a 54 point deficit to a 4 point deficit relative to May.
Compare now to Johnson who currently sits on 46/44 for +2
So Johnson has a lead on this measure of 62 points on Corbyn, comparing to May's lead of 54 points.
If Corbyn closes the gap by the same amount, with Johnson's position deteriorating as May's did, then the gap between the two would narrow to 12 points. (This compares to a 17 point lead Cameron over Miliband, 15 point lead Blair over Howard, 11 point lead Major over Kinnock - it would almost certainly be enough for a small majority)
I think the 2017GE campaign was truly exceptional, and such large swings are unlikely - and of course it's not impossible they could move in the other direction if Johnson improves his ratings further. So even in a best case scenario for Corbyn, Johnson would probably still win a majority.
However, I do think that this is a clear area of risk for Johnson. His ratings were 37/55 for -18 in September for example. And Swinson is an unknown factor, just as Clegg was in 2010.