I've long said that Boris would be utterly shameless in nicking the bits off Labour and the LibDems that were popular.
Canning fracking is just the start.
Is rail renationalisation next?
An area in which Bozza has some form. Bringing large chunks of the London rail network into the TfL Overground was one of his better moves as mayor. It’s infinitely better out of the hands of the privateers. Although it is a concession rather than full-blown nationalisation it is far better than the crappy franchising model that went before.
Our polling indicates that In a General Election "tomorrow" the Conservative Party's candidate Mark Jenkinson would win the seat from Labour with an 11 point lead over the current incumbent Sue Hayman. pic.twitter.com/bb3ZLVc5EX
I know it's only a single seat, and I know that constituency polling is historically poor, but, those mighty caveats aside it's interesting that the Tory poll share is up in Workington, when it's quite a lot down on the last GE in the national Survation polls.
This suggests that the Brexit realignment is a process, not an event that happened at GE2017. The corollary is that in more Remain-supporting seats the decline in the Conservative poll share will be more precipitous.
I have to say I was thinking more about it putting some Lib Dem long shots plausibly within reach.
Oh I meant the same, in essence - are there more where the trend opens up those LD long shots (there'll definitely be a few) than there are ones it enables Tories to hold off/take from Labour?
The interesting thing about the tactical voting guide from BestForBritain is that it was mainly Labour seats that were saved by tactical voting (for all the criticism of it for being a Lib Dem project for recommending Lib Dem tactical votes in some places where they start third). An extra 66 seats for Labour compared to an extra 21 seats for the Lib Dems.
That suggests that the Lib Dems are too far back to threaten more southern Tory seats than the Tories can sweep up from Labour in the north and midlands. Swinson would have to make a major breakthrough and move her national polling up considerably to change those numbers. A differential swing on Brexit lines therefore strongly favours the Conservatives in this election.
The Tory vote will be down considerably in London and other big cities like Bristol. The other side of that is the Tories doing better than average in places like Workington.
I agree, and that has considerable implications. A good number of incumbent Tories in the SE will be rightly afeeared of losing their seats.
If we wind up a similar number of Tory MPs after the GE, they will be in very different places and representing very different areas. It will be a Tory party, but not as we know it.
Safe to say if they're comfortably taking Workington the gains will outnumber the losses and more importantly the gains will be from Labour, however a long way to go in the campaign. Getting Labour to talk Brexit will be key for the Tories and for Labour avoiding too much Brexit talk is their only route to success.
"a long way to go in the campaign"
Hmmm. This is a Brexit election. Attitudes have solidified over three and half years. Those attitudes are driving these numbers. And this WILL be a Brexit election, unlike 2017. What is going to happen to change those solidified attitudes in six weeks? Frankly, I'm not seeing it.
It's incredibly depressing to see the number of people on Twitter who disparage opinion polls every time one comes out that they don't like, writing comments like "how can you tell how people are going to vote from a sample of just 500". Well, that's how sampling works.
“incredibly depressing”, really? Either that’s hyperbole or you really need to get out more comrade
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
This mural is not obviously anti-semitic.
Someone seeing it on the street or even more so on a Facebook feed (like Corbyn for example) could not reasonably consider it to be so, prima facie.
The mural depicts 6 people, 5 of the richest capitalists in the world at one time, only 2 of whom happen to be Jewish: Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Carnegie, Warburg, as well as Aleister Crowley; plus a symbol of Free Masonry, whilst the rich eat at a table on the backs of the world's poor.
On deep analysis, after reading context from the artist - published a long time after Corbyn commented - the artist may well have been buying into a conspiracy theory espoused by David Icke, and from that one can question (but not definitely say) the artist may or may not be anti-semitic.
However, on the face of it a reasonable person would not think of it as antisemitic. Only anti-capitalist, and anti-freemason.
How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
Presumably you would make exactly the same analysis for these:
It's incredibly depressing to see the number of people on Twitter who disparage opinion polls every time one comes out that they don't like, writing comments like "how can you tell how people are going to vote from a sample of just 500". Well, that's how sampling works.
Statistics should be compulsory until the age of 18.
The Tory vote will be down considerably in London and other big cities like Bristol. The other side of that is the Tories doing better than average in places like Workington.
I agree, and that has considerable implications. A good number of incumbent Tories in the SE will be rightly afeeared of losing their seats.
If we wind up a similar number of Tory MPs after the GE, they will be in very different places and representing very different areas. It will be a Tory party, but not as we know it.
Safe to say if they're comfortably taking Workington the gains will outnumber the losses and more importantly the gains will be from Labour, however a long way to go in the campaign. Getting Labour to talk Brexit will be key for the Tories and for Labour avoiding too much Brexit talk is their only route to success.
"a long way to go in the campaign"
Hmmm. This is a Brexit election. Attitudes have solidified over three and half years. Those attitudes are driving these numbers. And this WILL be a Brexit election, unlike 2017. What is going to happen to change those solidified attitudes in six weeks? Frankly, I'm not seeing it.
I do think the Tories will win, but I can’t see Brexit being debated endlessly for six weeks. It’s just utterly fucking dull. The media will move on to other stuff - they aren’t going want their audience to die of boredom.
For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.
This is big Nick
This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
If we win, Boris will get an uplift.
But it will pobably also cost him any remaining seats in Scotland!
The most chat we've had in the office about the rugby was when Scotland were tonking Russia
If the national numbers are right for the LDs, that poll is excellent news for them. It suggests they are adding votes where it matters, and losing them where it doesn't.
The LDs great fear is that they are up both 10% nationally and in every seat. In other words, they'll have very inefficient vote distribution.
If they're down two points in the 80% of seats they have no chance in, and up 14% in the other 20%, they'll be overjoyed.
If the national numbers are right for the LDs, that poll is excellent news for them. It suggests they are adding votes where it matters, and losing them where it doesn't.
The LDs great fear is that they are up both 10% nationally and in every seat. In other words, they'll have very inefficient vote distribution.
If they're down two points in the 80% of seats they have no chance in, and up 14% in the other 20%, they'll be overjoyed.
Workington has historically been one of the weakest seats in the country for the LDs, as I mentioned earlier. Lost deposit in 1983 for example.
I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut...
Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising
It will not be for the rich
I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.
By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".
Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
They are mostly the middle class - they are not the rich
Oh dear, Big_G, disappointed in you...
This change would help everyone with an income of over £50k, and no one with an income of less.
Now we can argue about what level you have to earn to be rich but only the richest 12% (including the super-rich by any definiton) are going to benefit from this change.
(In contrast btw standard rate Universal Credit for those unable to work is £73.34 per week... £3,813 per year.)
far better for country and everyone to raise the tax allowance and give the poorest more cash
far better for scots because the scottish government has no control over the personal allowance, but wouldn't follow a rate cut.
If the national numbers are right for the LDs, that poll is excellent news for them. It suggests they are adding votes where it matters, and losing them where it doesn't.
The LDs great fear is that they are up both 10% nationally and in every seat. In other words, they'll have very inefficient vote distribution.
If they're down two points in the 80% of seats they have no chance in, and up 14% in the other 20%, they'll be overjoyed.
Workington has historically been one of the weakest seats in the country for the LDs, as I mentioned earlier. Lost deposit in 1983 for example.
The Lib Dems got 2.72% in Workington in 2017 so 5% would be a 2 point increase rather than the decrease that the poll suggests.
Just coming back from a dinner at the Carlton Club and fantastic to see the Tories leading in a poll of Workington, 61st on the Tory target list, mainly because of movement from Labour to the Brexit Party. Confirming my view the Tories should not fear Farage and Labour is getting squeezed from the Leave end by the Brexit Party and the Remain end by the LDs allowing the Tories to come through the middle and win Labour marginal seats
If the national numbers are right for the LDs, that poll is excellent news for them. It suggests they are adding votes where it matters, and losing them where it doesn't.
The LDs great fear is that they are up both 10% nationally and in every seat. In other words, they'll have very inefficient vote distribution.
If they're down two points in the 80% of seats they have no chance in, and up 14% in the other 20%, they'll be overjoyed.
Workington has historically been one of the weakest seats in the country for the LDs, as I mentioned earlier. Lost deposit in 1983 for example.
The Lib Dems got 2.72% in Workington in 2017 so 5% would be a 2 point increase rather than the decrease that the poll suggests.
Yes, that is clear from the tables.
Of the 509 telephoned, 100 were undecided, so 20% of the total. I do wonder how accurate phone polls are in the modern world, and that is a lot of undecided. The "would not consider" tables are interesting too.
Just looked at the cross tabs for that Workington poll
Still a fair number of undecideds, who are disproportionately women under 54, and are significantly less focused on Brexit than the general sample, and relatively much more interested in the NHS.
Whereas men are much more Brexit focused and seem much more likely to have made their minds up. If I was a Labour strategist, the profile of the undecideds would give me some hope that things may not ultimately be as bleak as the headline poll (which presumably excludes undecideds) suggests..
He is betting the farm on Iowa. His polling in the other early seats is not anywhere near as good, and Warren is still ahead.
That's not really true any more, he's coming up strong in NH too now, just eight points behind Warren.
But yes, he has to win Iowa to be in with a shot at the nomination. Still, the polls there (and his organisation) suggest he's in with an excellent shout. And if he does win Iowa, then he is a leading candidate.
Just coming back from a dinner at the Carlton Club and fantastic to see the Tories leading in a poll of Workington, 61st on the Tory target list, mainly because of movement from Labour to the Brexit Party. Confirming my view the Tories should not fear Farage and Labour is getting squeezed from the Leave end by the Brexit Party and the Remain end by the LDs allowing the Tories to come through the middle and win Labour marginal seats
Actually no - BXP take a tenth of both Tory and Lab votes. But the Tories are getting a bunch of straight gains from Labour. That suggests that the move to the Tories in working-class Northern seats seen in 2017 is continuing, and the BXP intervention is neutral. Of course, we can speculate what the BXP voters would do if there was no BXP candidate, but the poll can't tell us that.
This Workington poll suggests that the Brexit Party candidates will hurt Labour as much as the Tories, and perhaps more, in some seats.
The preconception that Farage will hurt Boris relies on Tory Brexit voters feeling that Boris is a failure - which they aren't at the moment - and it remains to be seen whether Farage will cut through in the campaign.
Just coming back from a dinner at the Carlton Club and fantastic to see the Tories leading in a poll of Workington, 61st on the Tory target list, mainly because of movement from Labour to the Brexit Party. Confirming my view the Tories should not fear Farage and Labour is getting squeezed from the Leave end by the Brexit Party and the Remain end by the LDs allowing the Tories to come through the middle and win Labour marginal seats
Actually no - BXP take a tenth of both Tory and Lab votes. But the Tories are getting a bunch of straight gains from Labour. That suggests that the move to the Tories in working-class Northern seats seen in 2017 is continuing, and the BXP intervention is neutral. Of course, we can speculate what the BXP voters would do if there was no BXP candidate, but the poll can't tell us that.
Labour down 17% in Workington, the Brexit Party up 13% and the Tories up 3% suggests there is a small direct swing to the Tories from Labour in Workington but if is only the swing from Labour to the Brexit Party that enables the Tories to actually get a big enough swing from Labour to win the seat
On UNS Workington is Tory target number 61, this poll had every candidate prompted and would give the Tories a 4-5k majority. Promising stuff for Boris given survation are not their best pollster.
There are 9 SNP targets they definitely won't get and 6 Lib Dem targets they are unlikely to get any of either. The getvoting website has Labour 3 pts behind the Tories with its MRP model btw.
Very true, might as well be ambitious and include all the targets though! You never know with split and tactical votes. On these sorts of numbers up to 60 Tory gains possible, though I expect they'd settle for half of that!
The problem is that all the decent, open-minded, fair, responsible, prudent, competent Conservatives have already decamped, and the new Tory Party is just a gang of schemers and liars, who are backed by tax-dodgers, investment-fund managers, get-rich-quick merchants and vicious thugs. Not an enticing prospect. But then, neither is a Socialist dictatorship.
Just coming back from a dinner at the Carlton Club and fantastic to see the Tories leading in a poll of Workington, 61st on the Tory target list, mainly because of movement from Labour to the Brexit Party. Confirming my view the Tories should not fear Farage and Labour is getting squeezed from the Leave end by the Brexit Party and the Remain end by the LDs allowing the Tories to come through the middle and win Labour marginal seats
Actually no - BXP take a tenth of both Tory and Lab votes. But the Tories are getting a bunch of straight gains from Labour. That suggests that the move to the Tories in working-class Northern seats seen in 2017 is continuing, and the BXP intervention is neutral. Of course, we can speculate what the BXP voters would do if there was no BXP candidate, but the poll can't tell us that.
Labour down 17% in Workington, the Brexit Party up 13% and the Tories up 3% suggests there is a small direct swing to the Tories from Labour in Workington but if is only the swing from Labour to the Brexit Party that enables the Tories to actually get a big enough swing from Labour to win the seat
I don't think you can read too much into one small sample constituency poll where there are huge sampling issues and a very high margin or error.
On UNS Workington is Tory target number 61, this poll had every candidate prompted and would give the Tories a 4-5k majority. Promising stuff for Boris given survation are not their best pollster.
There are 9 SNP targets they definitely won't get and 6 Lib Dem targets they are unlikely to get any of either. The getvoting website has Labour 3 pts behind the Tories with its MRP model btw.
Very true, might as well be ambitious and include all the targets though! You never know with split and tactical votes. On these sorts of numbers up to 60 Tory gains possible, though I expect they'd settle for half of that!
The problem is that all the decent, open-minded, fair, responsible, prudent, competent Conservatives have already decamped
I know that is a lie, because I am still in the Tories.
A bunch of pompous self-important has-been Europhile head-bangers choosing to flounce is no loss.
Comments
That suggests that the Lib Dems are too far back to threaten more southern Tory seats than the Tories can sweep up from Labour in the north and midlands. Swinson would have to make a major breakthrough and move her national polling up considerably to change those numbers. A differential swing on Brexit lines therefore strongly favours the Conservatives in this election.
Hmmm. This is a Brexit election. Attitudes have solidified over three and half years. Those attitudes are driving these numbers. And this WILL be a Brexit election, unlike 2017. What is going to happen to change those solidified attitudes in six weeks? Frankly, I'm not seeing it.
https://www.facinghistory.org/resource-library/image/antisemitic-nazi-propaganda-poster
https://www.ushmm.org/propaganda/archive/poster-guilty-war/
https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/not-right-on-the-money-new-exhibition-unravels-stereotypes-about-jews/
The LDs great fear is that they are up both 10% nationally and in every seat. In other words, they'll have very inefficient vote distribution.
If they're down two points in the 80% of seats they have no chance in, and up 14% in the other 20%, they'll be overjoyed.
Of the 509 telephoned, 100 were undecided, so 20% of the total. I do wonder how accurate phone polls are in the modern world, and that is a lot of undecided. The "would not consider" tables are interesting too.
https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1190400198771662848?s=19
Still a fair number of undecideds, who are disproportionately women under 54, and are significantly less focused on Brexit than the general sample, and relatively much more interested in the NHS.
Whereas men are much more Brexit focused and seem much more likely to have made their minds up. If I was a Labour strategist, the profile of the undecideds would give me some hope that things may not ultimately be as bleak as the headline poll (which presumably excludes undecideds) suggests..
But yes, he has to win Iowa to be in with a shot at the nomination. Still, the polls there (and his organisation) suggest he's in with an excellent shout. And if he does win Iowa, then he is a leading candidate.
The preconception that Farage will hurt Boris relies on Tory Brexit voters feeling that Boris is a failure - which they aren't at the moment - and it remains to be seen whether Farage will cut through in the campaign.
A bunch of pompous self-important has-been Europhile head-bangers choosing to flounce is no loss.