Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Scottish play. Will Wales follow Scotland and abandon Labo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Scottish play. Will Wales follow Scotland and abandon Labour at a general election?
The latest polling in Wales shows the Conservatives leading Labour 29% to 25% yet that 4% lead for the Conservatives still sees Labour win more seats than the Conservatives so it is understandable why Labour are the favourites in this market because first past the post and old constituency boundaries are working against the Conservatives in Wales.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
He has a point
https://mobile.twitter.com/ShonaHaslam/status/1190990809178480640
2) For the umpteenth time, the so-called Remain alliance made no fecking difference in Brecon. It was the collapse of the tribal Labour vote that delivered the seat to the Yellows, which is part of the phenomenon we’re seeing in this poll.
3) further question. My understanding was that the last ScotParl and Sennedd elections were postponed from 2015 to 2016 because of a clash with a general election as the government believed the Celts were too thick to deal with three ballot papers. I thought this was a one-off due to a scheduled GE and in future if there was not a GE scheduled elections would still be held quadrennially. Has this now changed permanently and therefore the next ScotParl and Sennedd elections will be in 2021?
If so, that is when the money should move to a Labour wipeout in Wales.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-national_opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#Wales
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#Wales
“equality has not extended to African soldiers who helped to win the war. There are amazing cemeteries in Kenya and Tanzania with great dedication to British soldiers but not to Africans. They were thrown into unmarked graves, this was policy by Winston Churchill’s government their graves thrown to nature. What was disturbing was the lengths to ensure Africans not buried alongside British soldiers, macabre things like measuring skulls.”
What? Does he actually have history on his side here in his attack on Churchill’s government and the War Graves Commission?
So, it should be Lloyd George’s government under attack for that if he’s right. But given the numerous memorials I have seen to Indian soldiers including in this country I am sceptical.
EDIT - having read it, he is talking about the First World War, and Winston Churchill as Secretary of State, so not Churchill’s government. I don’t know enough about the subject to opine either way, but that would as I note above have been somewhat of a contrast with the treatment of Indian soldiers.
I think one point he may be forgetting is that it was comparatively unusual for regiments to serve where they were raised. They would normally be sent to another part of the same continent. Moreover as Tanganyika was a German colony adjoining Rhodesia it was very possible there were not many non-white soldiers there.
To beat them, the Tories have to take all their targets down to Newport East, which means almost everything will have to go right with the Tory campaign, and almost everything wrong with Labour.
The Remain Alliance will have almost zero effect. Only babbling idiots in the South England (who probably cooked the scheme up) could think it would have any effect. LibDem voters and Plaid Cymru voters have almost nothing in common. The Remain alliance definitely will depress the Plaid Cymru vote (which is why the effect is "almost zero" -- the main effect will actually be the opposite of what was intended).
My predictions are the Plaid Cymru will lose Ceredigion to the LibDems; the LibDems will lose Brecon & Radnorshire to the Tories; Labour will lose (at least) Gower, Vale of Clwyd & Wrecsam to the Tories. I think Ynys Mon (internecine 3 way marginal) will change hands, but I am not sure who to.
If Labour escape with 3 losses, they will have dodged at least another 7 bullets.
I'd expect tory gains in Scotland - Kezia here telling it like it is.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/jeremy-corbyns-indyref2-stance-makes-election-harder-for-scottish-labour-kezia-dugdale/ar-AAJLAKA?ocid=spartanntp
If you're itching to place a bet, I'm tempted to put my money on Spurs winning and four goals in the match this afternoon another bet on Son to score two at 18/1
Honestly if you cannot beat Everton you deserve to be relegated.
On reflection, though, you may be right. It may be more likely to go than the nominally more marginal Cardiff North.
Thank goodness we don't have that problem here on PB...
I have absolutely no doubt that had Boris gone into the City he would have ended up being investigated by people like me. I am therefore completely immune to his charms, though I recognise that others aren't. Wholly untrustworthy, IMO. Note that untrustworthy people often have other talents. The pity of them is that if they had integrity they would not get themselves or others into trouble and could use their talents wisely and effectively. But I'm afraid that, for me, the lack of integrity is a big no-no.
It is probably naive - or touchingly hopeful - of me to believe, as I was told when I was a child, that your lies eventually catch up with you.
//"Brilliant Fantastic"&name="Boris"
All the evidence of modern politics is that liars prosper enormously (see Blair, Clinton, Trump, Johnson).
Stodgy people without the facility of glib & charming mendacity are usually failures (Brown, May).
It is one of the reasons why I am braced for a Tory majority.
I assume that applies to Wales as well?
Should add spice to any libel action that may occur.
Going to be a long wait then
Question: Four draws, from a pack of 78 cards, what is the probability that the same card appears in each draw?
Answer: I'm going to make some simplifying assumptions here. I assume you don't care which is the "same card" beforehand. I assume that you don't replace the card once picked. OK, your draws will look like this (order not relevant)
Draw 1:
* A,B,C. Probability p is 1.
Draw 2:
* one of them must be A, B or C,
* which is 1-(all of them must not be A,B nor C)
* so p = 1-(75/78*74/77*73/76)
* => p = 1-0.887599243
* => p = 0.112400757
Draw 3:
* as draw 2
* so p = 0.112400757
Draw 4:
* as draw 2
* so p = 0.112400757
So the probability p is 1*0.112400757*0.112400757*0.112400757
= 0.001420063
= 0.14% to two decimal places
NOTE
* Please acknowledge receipt
* This calculation might be bollocks. I have not checked it and I take no responsibility if it is right or wrong. Please ask other people to check it. If you want me to do a better calculation, please pay me.
How’s that for a long wait for change?
Aberdeen South (incumbent Ross Thomson MP, SCon, Maj 4,752, not standing for re-election)
SNP 2/5
Con 2/1
LD 25/1
(Hills, Ladbrokes, Smarkets)
It has shortened this afternoon to 2.02 and Tory Majority has lengthened to 2.2.
Has anything happened today? Is it the BXP ad?
Was she not going to be FM once , before the Messiah claimed it would be her and was seen off. How many times do these nutters need to be thrashed to understand they are going nowhere.
We are in a bit of a holding pattern at the moment, and the Tories do not want to be seen as triumphalist. I can understand the market being rather cautious too: we’ve not had manifesto launches, debates, any real skirmishes yet.
Spreads have nudged up to 324 - 213 though, and probably they'll increase by a seat each day while the polls remain as they are.
I would have said the real risk however to the SNP in this election - and one of the reasons they are being so aggressive about independence - is they have been in power for twelve years and their domestic agenda is currently more or less ground to a halt, without noticeable successes and without even making full use of the powers they already have. Like Johnson (in this one respect) they are being kept afloat by the weakness and ineptitude of the opposition not by their own efforts. At some point, that will come to a sudden end. At Westminster, their pitch is to be independent and vigorous in standing up for Scotland’s interests. But ultimately, they have been mostly an irrelevance for the last four years while the DUP (unfortunately) have exerted an influence far out of proportion to their smaller numbers of MPs. That also makes their record a tough sell.
But of course for most SNP supporters they won’t be bothered about losing power or even about damage to Scotland’s society and economy by poor government if they achieve independence first, because that is all they really care about.
£80 million for our 3rd best Centre Back. Nice business!
'Are you trying to have a go at women's rights?'
I have never believed in Abortion on Demand on the same basis that I deny the right of a mother to kill her own children. Nor do I adhere to the ultra-Catholic position of no abortion under any circumstances.It should certainly not be made available as a form of contraception
I still think trying to be a person of integrity is worth while and the only decent way to live your life, even if you fall short.
I don't know about total honesty. Major was OK. Thatcher didn't strike me as a fundamentally dishonest person, in the way that Boris does. Was Heath particularly dishonest?
This will cause a 'stir' if it happens as the media will be enthralled with the important things in an election, like what Carrie is wearing but no doubt her strong green credentials. Indeed I believe this is where the fracking moratorium has come from
The question then will be one of how a presidential style campaign is received
https://twitter.com/RossThomson_MP/status/1190697327478149120?s=20
Another thing to mention is that Ross Thomson’s support for a hard brexit angered a lot of Scottish tories and he was out even without this unfortunate event
Anyway, that's enough from me I've got a KFC coming to munch with the footie while we wait for Lewis's big race.
She looked especially silly because she herself had been heavily involved in getting him appointed.
Interesting.
Perhaps I didn't write my explanation very well. But the card is always replaced into the pack (it's a Tarot pack, that's how they work).
Let's say the card I got were these:
I do a traditional three card Tarot spread.
First spread, of a row of 3 cards, drawn from a totally shuffled pack of 78 cards:
Death Reversed, The Fool Upright, Magician Upright
i then replace all the cards, shuffle again, and draw 3 more cards from the pack of 78, and I get:
Lovers Reversed, The Fool Upright, Ace of Pentangles Reversed
Again the cards go back, pack is shuffled, next draw:
Fool Upright, Knight of Wands Reversed, 8 of Cups Reversed
Again the cards go back, pack is shuffled, next draw:
Fool Upright, Lovers Upright, King of Cups Reversed
I have now received the Fool Card, Upright, in four draw of 3 cards in sequence.
In my maths, which I believe is probably wrong, the chances of this happening are 1 in 140,608, or 0.00000711197%
The scheme will be free to everyone on benefits but they are 'kindly' offering interest free loans to everyone else. I assume this scheme will be mandatory, otherwise it will fall apart at the seams, so are they going to force homeowners to take out unwanted loans
I have used them at several critical moments in my life, and they have been brilliantly effective.
We all know the media will go overboard in circumstances like this and will latch onto the trivia
I am sure you won't be enthralled but do you think the media will not report on her green credentials, many unelected people are involved in our political discourse
I'm inclined to agree with that.
WTF do you drink to have noticed price increases, you say you drink Carling which is piss water and will have had no increase due to the low alcohol content.
Just sayin'.....